Roster Building: The Case for a 1st Rd WR is Pretty Strong

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I was not impressed by this quote to be fair. To me making the hard contested catches is a good bonus, but not close to the top of the list. Getting open is the true separating factor(pun intended). The best receivers in the league are the best because they get open, not because they catch contested balls(of course the top of the top have it all). He's right to point out to getting off press coverage(watch Metcalf in this draft, he is great with his hands at the beginning of the route, swiping defenders hands who try to jam him) and running good sharp routes is the basis of a good receiver... everything else is layered on top of those two for me personally. Being elusive after the catch is important, having good hands is important, having good body control is important, speed is a great bonus once you've gotten off your man... as well as making contested catches. My point is... if your best attribute is making contested catches, you will not catch a lot of balls... first QBs don't like throwing contested balls if they don't have to... they generally throw to people they see have some separation(or know will separate on anticipation type of throws) , and second the moment the catch is contested is the moment your catch rate significantly drops. (red zone is a bit of a different story because of the compressed field, so that's where you mostly need to throw some contested balls) 

 

For whatever it's worth, I'm not sure I trust Ballard's evaluations on WRs. They haven't been great so far. Kamar Aiken, Reece Fountaine, Grant... Overall not impressed so far. He hasn't spent premier resources on the position though... so... I'm not sure if it's reasonable to be expecting more from the WRs he's gotten for the resources he's spent... so... I guess I will wait a season or two more before I have more firm opinion on his WR evaluations. 

 

(highlight vid of DK Metcalf following)

 

 

 

Good stuff, start to finish.

 

I'm not ready to grade Ballard's WR evaluations at this point. I don't think he's done anything for us to grade yet. Two mid-level FAs that aren't even worth mentioning, IMO, and two late draft picks that haven't played. The one guy that anyone should actually be excited about -- Cain -- blew his ACL before he could show anything. I'm definitely not prepared to say anything about Fountain, but his physical traits are there, and the staff is obviously not interested in rushing him right now.

 

For whatever it's worth, Reich and Sirianni both have experience coaching receivers, so I'm sure they're evaluations will matter moving forward.

 

Metcalf is added to my film review list.

[dw49]

On 11/27/2018 at 9:26 AM, DougDew said:

Ok.  I didn't remember reading where he had production issues last year and maybe that's why I replaced him with Kirk in my mock.  Maybe that spooked teams.  But I agree overall, I thought he read like a great prospect and I was surprised to see he lasted until our 6th.

 

I honestly had not considered him with my initial post in this thread, but I think Ballard should look at WR if value is there.  I have been biased towards getting a YAC guy like Tyler Lockett for years, and I don't think Cain is that type, so I'll still hold out hope we find one in something other than the first round.

 

 

He had some what of a limited route tree . Clemson used him mainly to go over the top and I don't think he had a lot of chemistry with the new Clemson QB , plus Clemson's offense was geared to run the ball in 2017. Combine that with some drops and his stock dropped from 2016 to 2017. However , that said , the 6th still seems low....

[Pacergeek]

I would be cool with Campbell or Metcalf, but Hollywood is the class of this year's WR class by far. He's the reason Oklahoma defense is so terrible. Hollywood scores so quickly, the defense can never rest. 

[shasta519]

On 11/26/2018 at 3:18 PM, DougDew said:

I'm assuming he dropped for reasons other than attitude. 

 

At one point I mocked him to us in the second based upon his write ups but saw only a few sites having him ranked that highly, so I  moved off of him and on to Kirk.  I didn't read anything that would suggest that he would last until the fifth, so I thought selecting him there was a no brainer. 

 

I think he's a good prospect.  I'm simply making the assumption there are holes that I didn't read about and 31 other GMs wouldn't pass on him for 2 extra rounds just because of attitude, but maybe they did.

 

Marcus Peters had attitude issues...and he was a mid-1st round pick. If they are that talented...they get drafted early (unless there is an issue off field). I think there had to something else there that caused Cain to tumble like that (route tree, hands, knowledge of the playbook, etc.)...for every team to pass him up for multiple rounds after his projection. For all we know, he might have gone undrafted if Ballard didn't pull the trigger. When teams are drafting Ps with a 2nd round WR on the board...he's probably not really a 2nd round WR.

 

That being said, I look forward to being a deep threat next season. I think that will be his role...and with Luck he could be great at it. Ideally, this team has a group of WRs that can offer a little bit of everything (a burner, a couple of YAC guys, a guy that can highpoint the ball, another guy that can create separation and catch, etc.).

[shasta519]

10 hours ago, Superman said:

 

That does make sense. Maybe his point was more specifically that WRs get grades higher than they deserve, and wasn't not relevant to positional value. 

 

But even then, I think his total comment is in harmony with what I was saying about how WRs get hyped in the draft, because it sounds like he thinks receivers aren't being scouted properly,  partly because of the high profile nature of the position. I think we've all noticed how questionable WR drafting has been in recent years.

 

 

He sounds pretty selective, to the point that some of the guys getting drafted aren't impressive to him.

 

Now where he and I start to differ is when he kind of shrugs off the other factors, like YAC. I think beating press coverage and making contested catches is critical, obviously, but those other factors like balance, quickness, making tacklers miss, etc., are critical also, IMO.

 

Agree. I am not a fan of Ballard's line of thinking there. I hope, with Reich on board now, that he would lean more toward YAC. It's a staple of the quick passing game. Not to mention Reich has shown that he can scheme guys open...so it's what they do after the catch that's important.  

 

Preferrably, you have a guy that can do both...but that player is going to typically require a top pick. I think it's more realistic to have one of each.

 

Reading that quote does make me wonder if Kirk was high on Ballard's board. 

[shasta519]

9 hours ago, stitches said:

I think the composition of this draft plays very well into his natural tendencies and stated preferences about building a team(starting from the trenches). There are way too many great defensive prospects on the DLine. I think he will be drooling over this draft class' pass-rushers(both interior and on the EDGE) and I fully expect us to draft one... first because there are a ton of good ones and chances are one of those would be BPA where we are drafting, second because it meets our needs and covers some of our biggest weaknesses and third because again - it fits his philosophy.  

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we drafted a WR, but I think the odds are in favor of defensive player. With that said I fully expect one of our top 4 picks(rounds 1-3) to be a WR. 

 

Barring a tradeback...or some blockbuster 1st round pick for player deal...I can't imagine a scenario where Ballard doesn't take a DL player in the 1st round.

 

The only thing that could possibly trump this is if he was dead set on BPA talentwise...which would likely be WR (like Harry or Harmon) or maybe a CB (like Greedy). But we just don't know how he values either position at this point.

[shasta519]

10 hours ago, stitches said:

I was not impressed by this quote to be fair. To me making the hard contested catches is a good bonus, but not close to the top of the list. Getting open is the true separating factor(pun intended). The best receivers in the league are the best because they get open, not because they catch contested balls(of course the top of the top have it all). He's right to point out to getting off press coverage(watch Metcalf in this draft, he is great with his hands at the beginning of the route, swiping defenders hands who try to jam him) and running good sharp routes is the basis of a good receiver... everything else is layered on top of those two for me personally. Being elusive after the catch is important, having good hands is important, having good body control is important, speed is a great bonus once you've gotten off your man... as well as making contested catches. My point is... if your best attribute is making contested catches, you will not catch a lot of balls... first QBs don't like throwing contested balls if they don't have to... they generally throw to people they see have some separation(or know will separate on anticipation type of throws) , and second the moment the catch is contested is the moment your catch rate significantly drops. (red zone is a bit of a different story because of the compressed field, so that's where you mostly need to throw some contested balls) 

 

For whatever it's worth, I'm not sure I trust Ballard's evaluations on WRs. They haven't been great so far. Kamar Aiken, Reece Fountaine, Grant... Overall not impressed so far. He hasn't spent premier resources on the position though... so... I'm not sure if it's reasonable to be expecting more from the WRs he's gotten for the resources he's spent... so... I guess I will wait a season or two more before I have more firm opinion on his WR evaluations. 

 

(highlight vid of DK Metcalf following)

 

 

 

Good points all around. 

[aaron11]

8 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Marcus Peters had attitude issues...and he was a mid-1st round pick. If they are that talented...they get drafted early (unless there is an issue off field). I think there had to something else there that caused Cain to tumble like that (route tree, hands, knowledge of the playbook, etc.)...

 

 according to his profile, cain was suspended for failed drug tests and also had issues with drops and false start penalties 

[shasta519]

26 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

 according to his profile, cain was suspended for failed drug tests and also had issues with drops and false start penalties 

 

I didn't know about the failed drug tests. That right there would explain a lot.

[Matthew Gilbert]

17 hours ago, Superman said:

Metcalf is added to my film review list.

Go ahead and add DaMarkus Lodge to that list if you haven't already. He's my favorite of the three Ole Miss guys. LSU tape is pretty ugly but overall I see some star potential with Lodge. I think he has work to do but his raw skills are outstanding IMO. I've read that he should test very well, which might kill his chances of being there in the middle rounds like I had hoped.

[richard pallo]

14 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I didn't know about the failed drug tests. That right there would explain a lot.

I didn't know about the failed drug tests either yet Ballard wasn't afraid to draft him.  And he wasn't afraid to sign Collins with his suspension issues as well.  Hmmm.  very interesting.  

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I didn't know about the failed drug tests either yet Ballard wasn't afraid to draft him.  And he wasn't afraid to sign Collins with his suspension issues as well.  Hmmm.  very interesting.  

 

Deon Cain was drafted in the 6th round.

 

https://www.colts.com/news/chris-ballard-on-character-of-colts-rookies-20621982

 

Quote

I was very strict, especially rounds one through five — on the type of people we were bringing into this organization.

 

Listen when the man talks.

[dodsworth]

I will question a decision to draft a 

WR with the defensive front 4 needing playmakers. The offense is

the least of our worries on this team.

[Matthew Gilbert]

12 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

I will question a decision to draft a 

WR with the defensive front 4 needing playmakers. The offense is

the least of our worries on this team.

I think we can rest assure that the Colts won't be taking a WR in the first round.

[shasta519]

23 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I didn't know about the failed drug tests either yet Ballard wasn't afraid to draft him.  And he wasn't afraid to sign Collins with his suspension issues as well.  Hmmm.  very interesting.  

 

Looks like the failed drug tests were actually in his freshman season. Hasn't had that issue since...so I imagine that wasn't enough to drop him like it did.

[shasta519]

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Deon Cain was drafted in the 6th round.

 

https://www.colts.com/news/chris-ballard-on-character-of-colts-rookies-20621982

 

 

Listen when the man talks.

 

Yeah...that reads like "We took some chances on some guys late in the draft...so we will see what happens. But I can guarantee the picks in rounds 1-5 are good, solid guys."

[shasta519]

40 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I didn't know about the failed drug tests either yet Ballard wasn't afraid to draft him.  And he wasn't afraid to sign Collins with his suspension issues as well.  Hmmm.  very interesting.  

 

I don't think he has any problem with bringing in players with baggage (or at least not holistically). I don't really either (to a degree).

[Coffeedrinker]

1 hour ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I think we can rest assure that the Colts won't be taking a WR in the first round.

I agree with this somewhat.  The only reason I say somewhat is because it's hard to tell with Ballard.  With his comments leading up to the draft about there being starting quality guards that will be there in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, I would have put money on the Colts NOT spending a 1st round pick on a guard  and yet here we are.

 

But I don't think a first round WR is necessary.  Without a consistent threat opposite of TY the Colts are still one of the best offenses in the NFL.  But the D is another story.  They still need a couple of better starters on the D side.  And considering that it appears the 2019 draft class will be strong with dline position, it's hard to imagine the Colts going in a different direction.

 

Of course I used to say similar with Polian as the GM and he constantly surprised on draft day.  I think the only time he drafted the "consensus" pick was Rob Morris at MLB.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, shastamasta said:

 

Yeah...that reads like "We took some chances on some guys late in the draft...so we will see what happens. But I can guarantee the picks in rounds 1-5 are good, solid guys."

 

I think it's pretty self explanatory. Later in the draft, the cost-benefit analysis changes. Evidently, Ballard's line of demarcation is after the fifth round. Given that this team absolutely needs as much young talent as possible, across the board, he essentially ruled out taking any players with serious character concerns in the first five rounds. He determined the risk was too great.

 

Same principle applies to acquiring a low cost player like Collins. 

[shasta519]

34 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think it's pretty self explanatory. Later in the draft, the cost-benefit analysis changes. Evidently, Ballard's line of demarcation is after the fifth round. Given that this team absolutely needs as much young talent as possible, across the board, he essentially ruled out taking any players with serious character concerns in the first five rounds. He determined the risk was too great.

 

Same principle applies to acquiring a low cost player like Collins. 

 

I get it...though I still think it's somewhat of an arbitrary cutoff (the middle of the Day Three). After all, Tyreek Hill was a 5th rounder. But that is just a difference of opinion. The Colts are still rebuilding, so I can see why Ballard wants to make sure he gets guys that will actually play.

 

But for me, Day One and Day Two are the only sacred picks (as far as risk is concerned).

 

I hope it was more about being a strategy for this draft...as opposed to a strict philosophy going forward. I want the Colts to have the luxury of swinging for the fences when those opportunities present themselves. They aren't there yet...but they can get there.

 

 

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I get it...though I still think it's somewhat of an arbitrary cutoff (the middle of the Day Three). After all, Tyreek Hill was a 5th rounder. But that is just a difference of opinion. The Colts are still rebuilding, so I can see why Ballard wants to make sure he gets guys the will actually play.

 

But for me, Day One and Day Two are the only sacred picks (as far as risk is concerned).

 

I hope it was more about being a strategy for this draft...as opposed to a strict philosophy going forward. I want the Colts to have the luxury of swinging for the fences when those opportunities present themselves. They aren't there yet...but they can get there.

 

Yeah, if the roster is better stocked, I could see him being willing to take greater risks earlier in the draft.

 

As for it being arbitrary, maybe. But it wouldn't surprise me if they've researched this and concluded that there's a notable breakpoint after the fifth round, where players are less likely to make rosters and/or play in Year 1. If there is, then an argument could be made that taking a player whose talent suggests he should be a Day 2 pick (which Ballard said about Cain) but he has some question marks is more likely to yield a rosterable player than taking a cleaner character guy who is legitimately a Day 3 prospect.

[throwing BBZ]

On 11/26/2018 at 3:18 PM, DougDew said:

I'm assuming he dropped for reasons other than attitude. 

 

At one point I mocked him to us in the second based upon his write ups but saw only a few sites having him ranked that highly, so I  moved off of him and on to Kirk.  I didn't read anything that would suggest that he would last until the fifth, so I thought selecting him there was a no brainer. 

 

I think he's a good prospect.  I'm simply making the assumption there are holes that I didn't read about and 31 other GMs wouldn't pass on him for 2 extra rounds just because of attitude, but maybe they did.

 

 

 8 3/4”  

 

 

[throwing BBZ]

On 11/25/2018 at 9:26 AM, ztboiler said:

Topically this is more about the current team and roster building than specific player drafting....so I'll put it here, but mods please move as you see fit.

 

As much as we all want the 3T of the future out of this upcoming draft, there is a good chance drafting in the 20's doesn't yield that kind of player.  Inside pass rush is trading at an all-time high right now, and for good reason.  Despite the volume of DL projected to be worth high picks in 2019, its unlikely that a disruptive inside rusher with 1st round measurables is still available in the 20's.

 

Amidst our offensive Renaissance, we've patched a gaping hole at WR respectably...but a significant hole remains and no good roster building strategy would leave it unaddressed with significant resources.   Stock piling talent on defense is still priority 1 in my book, but if a BPA outside WR is available at our 1st Rd. pick its the right time to pull the trigger.  It would be a shame to have another early to mid-season slump next year with patchwork WR play as a factor amidst the prime years of our franchise QB.  

 

 

It can't be more obvious that a 1st rd o-lineman would make more sense. Teams ahead of us will have many needs leaving CB with several good defensive front four choices in rd one. 
 And i would expect he will have a good rushing DT choice for our early 2nd rd Buff pick, perhaps even OUR 2nd rd pick. Obviously we need to start building our interior with some youth Now.

 I would say a block 1st TE looks to be more of a priority than WR. Hopefully they grade Mo Cox to be that guy. 

 If we can continue to pass and run block at such a high level, Lt. Dan could play WR in todays NFL.

[GoColts8818]

I think the second WR spot is the biggest need on the offensive side of the ball.  I’d be all for one if they go offense in the first round.  

 

You could argue though the defense needs more help first though.  They need another linebacker, all the corner help they can get, maybe a safety depending on what they do with Geathers in the off-season, and a legit pass rusher.  

 

If it comes down to any of those vs WR I think I would pull the trigger on defense if all things are equal or close to equal.  This does depend on what the Colts do in free agency of course.  

[colt18]

We need a WR but not in the first round. 

 

We have Hilton, Cain, Inman, Rogers and Fountain. I'm not a fan of Ryan Grant, don't know what Ballard saw in him. The upcoming FA class includes Tavon Austin (I would forever love Ballard for picking him up), Randall Cobb, and Tyrell Williams. Austin could play a very explosive role in Reich's offense at both WR and RB. 

 

I'm thinking Ballard makes some moves for FA WRs and drafts defense early in the draft, maybe take some offensive weaponry for himself later