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McShay's First Big Board for 2014 (Plus 10 more)


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Here are Todd McShay's top 32,  his first Big Board for the 2014 draft.   I'm including another 10 which are listed in no particular order....    But first,  the top 32...

 

 

1.   Clowney         DE    S. Carol         17.  Ekpre-Olomu        CB    Oregon

2.   Bridgewater   QB    Louis             18.  Tuitt                       DT    NDame

3.   Kouandjio       OT    Ala                 19.  Purifoy                  CB    Flo

4.   Lee                 WR   USC               20.  Attaochu              OLB  GTech

5.   Barr               OLB   UCLA             21.  Watkins               WR    Clemson

6.   Matthews       OT     Ta&m             22. Johnson                DT     LSU

7.   Nix                 NT      NDame          23. McCullers             DT     Tenn

8.   Boyd              QB     Clemson        24.  Clinton-Dix            S      Ala

9.   Manziel         QB      Ta&m             25.  Verrett                 CB     TCU

10.  Hubbard       OLB     Ala                26.  Yankey                OG     Stan

11,  Roby             CB      OhioSt           27.  Van Noy              OLB    BYU

12.  Mosley          LB       Ala                28.  Lynch                  DT      S. Flor

13.  Lewan           OT      Mich              29.  Carey                  RB     Ariz

14.  Jernigan        DT      FlorSt.            30.  Evans                 WR     Ta&m

15   McCarron      QB    Ala                  31.  Shazier               OLB    OhioSt

16.  Richardson    OT     Tenn              32.  Thomas               RB      Oreg

 

 

Next 10:

 

1.   Breslin         DE     USC                    6.   Jones                 OLB     FlorSt.

2.   Chricton       DE     OregSt.              7.   Murphy               OLB     Stan

3.   Coleman      WR     Rutgers             8.   Seastrunk            RB     Baylor 

4.   Fales            QB     San Jose           9.   Sefarian-Jenkins  TE      Wash 

5.   Johnson       OLB   Tenn                 10.  Sutton                   DL     ArizSt.

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I find it hard to believe McCarron is a better QB than Fales.

 

look at Fales stats and who he plays with then compare it to McCarron 

 

and its not even close. 

Who did Mccaron play with besides the best O Line in football and a good but largely overrated by some RB, Who did Mccaron have to throw to? Deandre White? Kenny Bell? Nick Williams? Kevin Norwood was alright but did not do anything special, Marvin Shinn? Who did Fales play against outside of Stanford last year? Also Fales has only been good for 1 year 

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I find it hard to believe McCarron is a better QB than Fales.

 

look at Fales stats and who he plays with then compare it to McCarron 

 

and its not even close. 

 

Really?    We're going to judge NFL potential by college stats?    OK....

 

Here are the stats for AJ McCarron against mostly SEC competition over 3 years....

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/480215/aj-mccarron

 

And here are the numbers for David Fales against competition from a league that I don't even know it's name for one year.  Before that,  he was in Junior College....

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/480550/david-fales

 

Are Fales' numbers better?   Yes,  but not by a lot,  and certainly nothing to get excited about when you compare the level of competition for the two QB's...

 

McCarron has competed at the highest level of competition his entire college career, has performed exceptionally well,  he's performed well on the biggest stage in college football....   

 

This is NOT to say that McCarron is a slam dunk success in the NFL,  or that Fales will fail in the NFL.    That's not my view at all.  Only that level of competition is a key component when evaluating....

 

McCarron might fail in the NFL, and Fales might succeed.    But I wouldn't come to that conclusion based on their stats.

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Than whom? He's a backup.

Probably is a backup but then again most QB's that are drafted wind up backups eventually, How many true franchise QB's are out there right now currently in the NFL? 

 

Manning brothers

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

Maybe Roethlisberger although I would consider him good not great 

 

 

A couple others that are good and even won a SB or two but I would not say elite or franchise QB's, good yes..... elite? No. A better question is what are you basing your assumption that Mccaron is a backup on? I dont necessarily disagree, Like I said the majority of QB's that come into the NFL at some point end up as a backup but to say that he is a backup based on who he plays with is not accurate in my opinion, Its what that QB does with that level of talent around him and how his skills or lack there of will translate to the NFL and the biggest question I have in regards to skill with him translating to the NFL is can he handle the speed of the game and defenders in his face, Manning himself spent years with players with average measurables of some sort, They were solid players but Manning made them better then what they were, Mccaron is also rated #2 according to NFL Draft Scout in QB Rankings 

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Probably is a backup but then again most QB's that are drafted wind up backups eventually, How many true franchise QB's are out there right now currently in the NFL?

Manning brothers

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

Maybe Roethlisberger although I would consider him good not great

A couple others that are good and even won a SB or two but I would not say elite or franchise QB's, good yes..... elite? No. A better question is what are you basing your assumption that Mccaron is a backup on? I dont necessarily disagree, Like I said the majority of QB's that come into the NFL at some point end up as a backup but to say that he is a backup based on who he plays with is not accurate in my opinion, Its what that QB does with that level of talent around him and how his skills or lack there of will translate to the NFL and the biggest question I have in regards to skill with him translating to the NFL is can he handle the speed of the game and defenders in his face, Manning himself spent years with players with average measurables of some sort, They were solid players but Manning made them better then what they were, Mccaron is also rated #2 according to NFL Draft Scout in QB Rankings

There are many more franchise QBs than that. Franchise QB doesn't mean elite QB.
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There are many more franchise QBs than that. Franchise QB doesn't mean elite QB.

you cant just put franchise QB on any QB and expect it to stick, Who else would you put in that franchise QB territory?

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Probably is a backup but then again most QB's that are drafted wind up backups eventually, How many true franchise QB's are out there right now currently in the NFL? 

 

Manning brothers

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

Maybe Roethlisberger although I would consider him good not great 

 

 

A couple others that are good and even won a SB or two but I would not say elite or franchise QB's, good yes..... elite? No. A better question is what are you basing your assumption that Mccaron is a backup on? I dont necessarily disagree, Like I said the majority of QB's that come into the NFL at some point end up as a backup but to say that he is a backup based on who he plays with is not accurate in my opinion, Its what that QB does with that level of talent around him and how his skills or lack there of will translate to the NFL and the biggest question I have in regards to skill with him translating to the NFL is can he handle the speed of the game and defenders in his face, Manning himself spent years with players with average measurables of some sort, They were solid players but Manning made them better then what they were, Mccaron is also rated #2 according to NFL Draft Scout in QB Rankings 

 

Gavin.....

 

There maybe some here who view your use of the term "franchise quarterback" as you do...

 

But personally,  I don't share that view.    I think you're using "franchise" when you should be using the term "elite"....

 

Because I see the term "franchise quarterback" very differently....

 

For instance,  without a list of teams in front of me, and off the top of my head...   I'd add to your list the names such as....

 

Luck, RG3, Wilson, Ryan, Tannehill,  Dalton, Kaepernick, Flacco, Cutler, Schaub,  Romo,  Rivers,  Stafford, Newton, Bradford

 

Falling short of the mark....

 

Freeman,  Vick,  Jets QB,  Kolb,  Locker,  Smith,  Weeden,  Flynn,  Palmer,  Ponder,  Gabbert.

 

That's 21 clubs that I see with someone the organization views as their franchise quarterback.   And 11 clubs that I see with someone the organization is using as someone to fill the spot until they find a franchise level QB.

 

I'm sure some will come along and read my list and want to put some players in different categories.   I'm only speaking for my view.   But I think your list is the 'elite' list...   and my list is a 'franchise' list...   and I don't think they're the same....

 

Just my opinion......

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Luck, Russell Wilson, Stafford, Matt Ryan, Flacco, etc.

Matt Ryan out of that list I agree with, The other players have not been as good for as long, Stafford had a great year in 2011...an elite year even but he seemed to have left his skills at home this past year, Flacco stepped up huge in this years playoffs time and time again but lets see him put it together for a whole year, When I think of franchise QB's I think of Peyton, Brees, Brady

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Matt Ryan out of that list I agree with, The other players have not been as good for as long, Stafford had a great year in 2011...an elite year even but he seemed to have left his skills at home this past year, Flacco stepped up huge in this years playoffs time and time again but lets see him put it together for a whole year, When I think of franchise QB's I think of Peyton, Brees, Brady

IMO franchise QB means the team they play for dont need a QB cause who they have is good enough to win and they can build around
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Gavin.....

There maybe some here who view your use of the term "franchise quarterback" as you do...

But personally, I don't share that view. I think you're using "franchise" when you should be using the term "elite"....

Because I see the term "franchise quarterback" very differently....

For instance, without a list of teams in front of me, and off the top of my head... I'd add to your list the names such as....

Luck, RG3, Wilson, Ryan, Tannehill, Dalton, Kaepernick, Flacco, Cutler, Schaub, Romo, Rivers, Stafford, Newton, Bradford

Falling short of the mark....

Freeman, Vick, Jets QB, Kolb, Locker, Smith, Weeden, Flynn, Palmer, Ponder, Gabbert.

That's 21 clubs that I see with someone the organization views as their franchise quarterback. And 11 clubs that I see with someone the organization is using as someone to fill the spot until they find a franchise level QB.

I'm sure some will come along and read my list and want to put some players in different categories. I'm only speaking for my view. But I think your list is the 'elite' list... and my list is a 'franchise' list... and I don't think they're the same....

Just my opinion......

I agree with you NCF I do think it could be possible for Kolb to be good if he has an O line that can keep him from getting killed if the bills give him a chance I think he will stay the starter I personally like Kolb
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Gavin.....

 

There maybe some here who view your use of the term "franchise quarterback" as you do...

 

But personally,  I don't share that view.    I think you're using "franchise" when you should be using the term "elite"....

 

Because I see the term "franchise quarterback" very differently....

 

For instance,  without a list of teams in front of me, and off the top of my head...   I'd add to your list the names such as....

 

Luck, RG3, Wilson, Ryan, Tannehill,  Dalton, Kaepernick, Flacco, Cutler, Schaub,  Romo,  Rivers,  Stafford, Newton, Bradford

 

Falling short of the mark....

 

Freeman,  Vick,  Jets QB,  Kolb,  Locker,  Smith,  Weeden,  Flynn,  Palmer,  Ponder,  Gabbert.

 

That's 21 clubs that I see with someone the organization views as their franchise quarterback.   And 11 clubs that I see with someone the organization is using as someone to fill the spot until they find a franchise level QB.

 

I'm sure some will come along and read my list and want to put some players in different categories.   I'm only speaking for my view.   But I think your list is the 'elite' list...   and my list is a 'franchise' list...   and I don't think they're the same....

 

Just my opinion......

I see your point and perhaps I am mixing the two together when they should be separate but, When I think of the term franchise QB I think of a QB that solidifies that position on the field for years to come and is without a doubt the unquestioned future of that franchise who has proved worthy of that status at the position and to me that has to be earned and I dont think that can be earned in 1 year, yes a team can look at a 1 year rookie QB who did very good his rookie year and say he is our future but thats just not the reality of the NFL when it comes to that I dont believe and if it is for some team you run the risk ending up with the next Ryan Fitpatrick who is not a bad QB but not a QB you want to build your franchise around , It has to be earned and when it earned it has to be kept, Luck is looked upon for example as our franchise QB and I think most would agree rightfully so but what is he played out the rest of his rookie contract and stunk up the joint, wont happen I think most would agree as well I was just using a hypothetical, what if Kaepernick comes out and stinks up the joint after a good first 7 starts, I think anyone can be given a title but its another thing to earn that title

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I see your point and perhaps I am mixing the two together when they should be separate but, When I think of the term franchise QB I think of a QB that solidifies that position on the field for years to come and is without a doubt the unquestioned future of that franchise who has proved worthy of that status at the position and to me that has to be earned and I dont think that can be earned in 1 year, yes a team can look at a 1 year rookie QB who did very good his rookie year and say he is our future but thats just not the reality of the NFL when it comes to that I dont believe and if it is for some team you run the risk ending up with the next Ryan Fitpatrick who is not a bad QB but not a QB you want to build your franchise around , It has to be earned and when it earned it has to be kept, Luck is looked upon for example as our franchise QB and I think most would agree rightfully so but what is he played out the rest of his rookie contract and stunk up the joint, wont happen I think most would agree as well I was just using a hypothetical, what if Kaepernick comes out and stinks up the joint after a good first 7 starts, I think anyone can be given a title but its another thing to earn that title

 

I admire your willingness to exclude players like Luck,  RG3 and other young QB's for not having a long enough track record.

 

I don't share that view, but I admire it.

 

That said,   you still have guys like Flacco and Romo and Ryan and Stafford and Schaub and Rivers who HAVE performed at a high level for an extended period of time.    I appreciate you want your top tier to be elite...   but then I think you have to have a next level down,  but still franchise level... 

 

Put another way,  if you could ask those franchises if they have a "franchise level QB" what do you think they'd say?

 

Just my opinion....

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Who did Mccaron play with besides the best O Line in football and a good but largely overrated by some RB, Who did Mccaron have to throw to? Deandre White? Kenny Bell? Nick Williams? Kevin Norwood was alright but did not do anything special, Marvin Shinn? Who did Fales play against outside of Stanford last year? Also Fales has only been good for 1 year 

Amari Cooper who will be a 1st round pick when he comes out TJ Yeldon another 1st round pick 

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I admire your willingness to exclude players like Luck,  RG3 and other young QB's for not having a long enough track record.

 

I don't share that view, but I admire it.

 

That said,   you still have guys like Flacco and Romo and Ryan and Stafford and Schaub and Rivers who HAVE performed at a high level for an extended period of time.    I appreciate you want your top tier to be elite...   but then I think you have to have a next level down,  but still franchise level... 

 

Put another way,  if you could ask those franchises if they have a "franchise level QB" what do you think they'd say?

 

Just my opinion....

Of course those franchises would say they do, They wouldn't openly degrade or (forget the word Im looking for here) chastise there QB to the public, Flacco played like a franchise QB in the playoffs, he played good in the regular season but did not put up numbers that would make anyone really seriously say he is a franchise QB, Romo had 4 great years plus Ryan has had 3 great years followed by Schaub with 3 great years, Its not that I dont think they have that ability because I think they do but they have not done it over the long haul, With Romo its a guessing game it seems whether the Cowboys will replace him from year to year, Schaub cant stay healthy, Flacco dont have the regular season numbers in any season that I would expect from a QB except for maybe 2010, Stafford had a great year last year, he was good this year but not great or even real good....20 TD's and 17 picks is not what I expect having a WR like Calvin Johnson on my team playing indoors....Lions fans should really be seeing the greatest show on turf reincarnated there and not 41 TD's and 16 ints 1 year and then follow that up with 20 td's and 17 ints the next, Maybe we are spoiled here because we had Manning for as long as we did and that distorts my view and that really all you need to be dubbed a franchise QB is a seal of approval from a GM who will stick with you for years on end, Personally I'd like a QB to back that franchise QB status up before I dub him a franchise QB

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Amari Cooper who will be a 1st round pick when he comes out TJ Yeldon another 1st round pick 

Cooper is definitly talented but my question is does he have anywhere near those numbers with a lesser QB, Unfair question probably but I just dont see how anyone can say Fales is a better QB after 1 year playing the competition he did like I said with the exception of Stanford, A game in which he played mediocre(not great but good enough) but 1 mediocre game against a great team

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 This is going to be a star studded draft of playmakers but with just one good QB in Bridgewater. I wouldn't be surprised if we traded up into the top 5 with Cle or Oak to get Marquise Lee.

 

The Colts will be picking in the 20's again....    I think the price to trade-up to the top-5 from that far down is prohibitive...

 

I think Atlanta traded something like two 1's, a #2, a #4 and a #5 to move up to get WR Julio Jones.    I don't see Grigson ever making that type of deal....

 

(I'm probably off on the trade details,  but not by much)

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 This is going to be a star studded draft of playmakers but with just one good QB in Bridgewater. I wouldn't be surprised if we traded up into the top 5 with Cle or Oak to get Marquise Lee.

 

 

I went and double-checked my guess on the draft pick compensation....   I was off...  it was actually a little pricier...

 

In all...

 

To move from pick 27 to pick 6....   Atlanta traded....

 

A 1/2/4 the year of the draft...     AND

 

A 1/4 the next year.

 

In total....   two #1's, a #2 and two #4's.      That's a fortune.    But that's the premium you pay when you're (A) moving that far, and (B)  trying to get a rare 'franchise' caliber player....   I think "B"  is the main reason.

 

When the NYJets moved from the 20's to #5 to take Mark Sanchez,  I don't think they paid that high a price.    I'll see if I can dig that one up too...

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The Colts will be picking in the 20's again....    I think the price to trade-up to the top-5 from that far down is prohibitive...

 

I think Atlanta traded something like two 1's, a #2, a #4 and a #5 to move up to get WR Julio Jones.    I don't see Grigson ever making that type of deal....

 

(I'm probably off on the trade details,  but not by much)

I think it'll be worth it especially since Wayne will be 36 going into that year and DHB will be a free agent. Marquis Lee imo is a better prospect then Julio Jones he's great at everything route running,speed,yac.I know giving up those picks seems like alot but were solid at every position except WR going into next years draft. Lee would be the perfect replacement for Wayne.

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Your probably alone on that one Watkins is a good player similar to Torrey Smith but Lee is being compared with Julio Jones and A.J Green. Lee is one of those blue chip players that don't come around very often.

Lee may be a stud, but he is nothing like jones/green

I would not trade up that high for a receiver, but that's just me.

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I think it'll be worth it especially since Wayne will be 36 going into that year and DHB will be a free agent. Marquis Lee imo is a better prospect then Julio Jones he's great at everything route running,speed,yac.I know giving up those picks seems like alot but were solid at every position except WR going into next years draft. Lee would be the perfect replacement for Wayne.

I like the Packers, Saints, and Patriots model for drafting and retaining the WR position better than the Falcons and I certainly don't want a $20 million receiver like Megatron.  The falcons gave up a lot to get Jones in draft picks, but they'll also have to give up a lot of roster talent in the future when they pay him in 2 years - it is hard to sustain.  Elite QB's make the WR position successful - ask Donnie Avery - so unless you don't want to pay any CB's or Pass Rushers, better take it easy on the WR's. 

 

So I guess I'd be very hesitant to trade up for an impact player unless I also was committed to retaining them at market price.  Might seem too long sighted in a win now world, but the Falcons are headed for a cap nightmare if they pay Julio and the Lions have one the most unsustainable roster structures that you could ever dream up.

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Really?    We're going to judge NFL potential by college stats?    OK....

 

Here are the stats for AJ McCarron against mostly SEC competition over 3 years....

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/480215/aj-mccarron

 

And here are the numbers for David Fales against competition from a league that I don't even know it's name for one year.  Before that,  he was in Junior College....

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/480550/david-fales

 

Are Fales' numbers better?   Yes,  but not by a lot,  and certainly nothing to get excited about when you compare the level of competition for the two QB's...

 

McCarron has competed at the highest level of competition his entire college career, has performed exceptionally well,  he's performed well on the biggest stage in college football....   

 

This is NOT to say that McCarron is a slam dunk success in the NFL,  or that Fales will fail in the NFL.    That's not my view at all.  Only that level of competition is a key component when evaluating....

 

McCarron might fail in the NFL, and Fales might succeed.    But I wouldn't come to that conclusion based on their stats.

 

I think when looking at past SEC quarterbacks that have relied heavily on a strong defense and rush attack, McCarron is clearly the best.

 

Greg McElroy was/is an NFL quarterback for the last two seasons and I think McCarron clearly has better tools than his predecessor.

 

This is a huge season for McCarron. Teams are going to continue to stack the box and force his arm to beat them becaue the Tide still return T.J. Yeldon.

 

I'm not completely sold on the 2014 quarterback class as a whole.

 

Is it better than 2013? Yes.

 

Should it be in the same conversation as 2012? Definitely not.

 

Boyd, Bridgewater, Faels and Miller all have a lot to prove this fall.

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I like the Packers, Saints, and Patriots model for drafting and retaining the WR position better than the Falcons and I certainly don't want a $20 million receiver like Megatron.  The falcons gave up a lot to get Jones in draft picks, but they'll also have to give up a lot of roster talent in the future when they pay him in 2 years - it is hard to sustain.  Elite QB's make the WR position successful - ask Donnie Avery - so unless you don't want to pay any CB's or Pass Rushers, better take it easy on the WR's. 

 

So I guess I'd be very hesitant to trade up for an impact player unless I also was committed to retaining them at market price.  Might seem too long sighted in a win now world, but the Falcons are headed for a cap nightmare if they pay Julio and the Lions have one the most unsustainable roster structures that you could ever dream up.

True but a year from now will be out of a #1 WR. The Falcons did give up alot but they won on that deal. The Wr's on those teams you mentioned takes time to develop and it's the QBs that make them better then what they are.If you were to put those Wr's on other teams they wouldn't be as successful i.e Welker. Luck isn't on the level of Rodgers,Brady,Brees yet but in a couple of seasons he will be.  Julio Jones has made Matt Ryan job alot easier and Lee would do the same for Luck. We wouldn't have to pay Luck,Werner,Lee,Hilton,Fleener until 4 or 5 years from now. We will have alot of cap space with guys like Bethea,Mathis,Cherilus,Redding,Toler, Walden contracts will be up.

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Fair point, though Wayne might surprise us with his longevity.  There are also plenty of scenarios that enable Wayne to play a key role in a reduced capacity as he ages with the emergence of Allen, Fleener, Hilton, Brazill - even DHB etc.  All that said, there hasn't been a Superbowl winner in the last 15 years with a big money WR (The Colts probably had the most tied up in WR payroll and I think that both Marvin and Reggie had long term deals south of $10 million/yr).  It doesn't look to me like you can tie big money up in the position and expect to produce a winner....so it is hard to see giving up much to draft one that you probably can't re-sign.  If Julio is the trade up comparison, ask yourself if the Falcons should pay him what he is about to command on the open market?  That is, if they are building their team to win Superbowls. 

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Jordan Matthews-WR

Aaron Colvin-CB

Sammie Watkins-WR

Cody Hoffman-WR

Jared Abbrederis-WR

David Yanke-G

Jordan Kohout-DT

Carrington Byndom-CB

Chris Borland-ILB

Jadeveon Clowney-4-3 DE/3-4 OLB

Stansly Maponga-OLB

Kyle Van Noy-4-3 DE/3-4 OLB

Stephon Tuitt-3-4 DE/DT

 

Are just a few of the players I will have my eye on throughout the season that will go in various rounds

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True but a year from now will be out of a #1 WR. The Falcons did give up alot but they won on that deal. The Wr's on those teams you mentioned takes time to develop and it's the QBs that make them better then what they are.If you were to put those Wr's on other teams they wouldn't be as successful i.e Welker. Luck isn't on the level of Rodgers,Brady,Brees yet but in a couple of seasons he will be. Julio Jones has made Matt Ryan job alot easier and Lee would do the same for Luck. We wouldn't have to pay Luck,Werner,Lee,Hilton,Fleener until 4 or 5 years from now. We will have alot of cap space with guys like Bethea,Mathis,Cherilus,Redding,Toler, Walden contracts will be up.

But we don't know how DHB will play I think he will really break out with luck if he does he could very well be our new #1 WR I think Luck and Reggie will really help him a lot
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