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  2. Yeah, I'm with @Irish YJ on this one. In order to draw conclusions about the bust rates of the WR position and to make decisions about whether to draft one in the 1st round, you need to 1. get big enough sample for it to means something(eliminate noise) and 2. compare it to other positions because 50% bust rate(not a real number, just putting it here for demonstration purposes) means nothing if the bust rate for DL is 65(again not real number, just for demonstration purposes - I don't know what the real numbers are). And even then like Irish mentioned, different draft classes have different strengths and at different stages of the draft... for example you can have a really strong DL draft in the 1st and have all of them go in the top 25 and a relatively weak WR class, but have a great WR drop to you to 26(lets say because of all the great DLs). So the question is do you draft the good WR or a sub-par DL? To me the answer is obvious... you draft the best value player... WR or not.
  3. I'm not saying anything against it, i prefer to watch the draft and get the picks before they are announced so i can focus more on the commentary. My displeasure comes from the whole "don't spoil it" community. To me, I was going to get that information later on, so why not get it now? It's not going to ruin anything for me, I'd still enjoy or dislike the event no matter what. It's all about getting that information. Some people want it ASAP and some people like waiting in suspense I guess. I really don't get it from here on the fan forum. It's pretty simple. Don't visit the forum when the Colts are on the clock? It's like a whole 5 min total you would have to avoid the forum. If you're coming to the forum while the colts are on the clock then you want the pick spoiled IMHO.
  4. I know that's a joke. Just wanted to say, while I'm sure Brissett had positive things to say about McDaniels, I'm also pretty sure that Ballard offering McDaniels the job wasn't solely based on Brissett's recommendation. I'd say that represented less than 5% of the equation. Ballard did A LOT of work on McDaniels, but McDaniels proved to be untrustworthy. I'm glad it happened when it did, and not a month or a year later... And it would be the same if Ballard asked Nelson his opinion of someone like Tillery. I wouldn't expect that Ballard would say 'Q likes him, that's good enough for me.'
  5. I am holding out hope that a Mr. Clelin Ferrell is still on the board when the Draft gets to our spot in first round GO GET EM MR. BALLARD !!!!!!!!
  6. I'd also like to add that 8 of the 14 receivers listed in the second half of round 1 (17-32) are labelled as misses, with 2 of them still unproven and 2 others being only somewhat hits, only Cooks and Hopkins have been clear hits. Higher first's have better odds, but after that it is a big issue finding a good player until rounds 2 and 3
  7. It's been a rule here every year. People get together here to watch the draft. If you prefer to watch the draft on twitter, you should do that
  8. I'm just going straight bourbon
  9. Round 1 - #26 A: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson B: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame C: A.J. Brown, WR, Miss Round 2a - #34 A: Darnell Savage , S, Maryland B: Renell Wren, DT, AZ STate C: Jeffrey Simmon, DT, Miss. State Round 2b - #59 A: Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan B: Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina C: N'keal Harry, WR, AZ State Round 3 - #89 A: Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M B: J J Arcega Whiteside, WR, Stanford C: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple Round 4a - #129 A: Khalen Saunders, DT, Western Illinois B: David Long, CB, Michigan Round 4b - #135 A: Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson B: T.J. Edwards, LB, Wisconsin Round 5 - #164 A: Cortez Broughton, DT, Cincinatti B: Trey Pipkins, OT, Sioux Falls Round 6 - #199 A: Ben Burr-Kirven, LB, Washington B: Chuma Edoga, OT, USC Round 7 - #240 A: Phil Haynes, OG, Wake Forest B: Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State
  10. I published a few studies across all positions. DL (iDL and Edge), and RB (and QB) had higher bust rates (10 and 25 year samples). For the info above to have any legitimate meaning, it would need to include all positions and compare accordingly. The last two years that you list have an 80% hit rate. That's probably pretty good vs other positions. It also counters your point about how much they may not be ready for the pro game. In terms of average taken WRs in the first, just based on pure numbers (snap counts, positions needed including STs, standard depth by position/rotation, ), we should expect on average of 3.5ish WRs taken per year IIRC. I'd also add that years fluctuate (numbers of positions taken) based on talent available, league O or D trends, etc.. This year will likely skew Edge and iDL a bit, just like 2014 did for WR. It happens, and will continue to happen. And we also know many positions have been devalued and overvalued through the past 10 years. In terms of being imperfect when they enter the league, most rookies are. All players can be limited by their systems in college. As far as how you classify success, you don't define. You don't speak of injury impact either. Fuller for instance, who you call a miss, still has averaged 500+ yards a year with serious injury issues across multiple seasons. That's still a higher average than every Colts WR not named TY. In short, if you're not comparing to other positions, or defining success criteria, not much to take from the above.
  11. Well it actually started with head ache sick. Then it really made me emotionally sick, and of course since I was sad, I got barf sick, i broke out in hives, and then my hair started falling out! I then got hospital sick and when I was sure I was deathly sick. Turns out I had no of these symptoms and I'm mentally sick. All because Arya Stark and Tony Stark die on the same weekend.... oops spoilers.
  12. I don’t think Inman will be back if we draft a WR. Especially if we get one of the bigger names ones. There just isn’t room for Inman.
  13. A oline player only makes sense round 3 or later. Your not going to waste a first round guy on someone who isn’t going to start or even crack the the lineup if there is injury.
  14. I'm just ready for this to start! Tired of all the threads where everyone is guessing and speculating. I know it's fun and I've learned a lot, but this has been like getting the Christmas catalog (yes, I'm aging myself) 2 months before Christmas. You can only circle things so many time and fold the corners of pages over so many times...the waiting is getting exhausting! Ultimately, it's up to Santa as to what you get
  15. It prompts me to remember Polian's old comment about GMs doing well if they hit on 60% of their first round picks. I think he said the NFL average was between 50 and 60%. I'm not sure position has much to do with it as much as picking a player who can actually play. Personally, I think wasting a first round pick sets a team back more so than failing to get a "potential" all-pro player with a first round pick, so I would lean towards taking a player who I thought was a sure thing NFL caliber player. That could be WR as much as any position, although some positions still have higher value. I think WR is one of those positions.
  16. I wonder how truthful they would be to ballard. I imagine they truat Ballard that what they say will stay private.
  17. Just how sick does it make you? Deathly sick? Hospital sick? Barf sick? Head ache sick? Emotionally sick? Mental sick? Do you break out in hives? Does your hair fall out?
  18. I wouldn't mind that. I was more referring to comments about moving Smith to rg because he's not a "true" rt. I'm not even sure what that means honestly. You can either play the position or you can't and he can and after only 2/3 of a season there. Also we are severely underestimating Glowinski. If he was a high pick, we'd be singing his praises imo. I also wouldn't put too much stock in 1-5 w/o AC imo. That was early on when things were sort of a mess to begin with.
  19. Most people freak out with every post you make.......
  20. Today
  21. They interviewed him on NFL.com this afternoon. Was very professional in his answers. Said some teams (during the interview) had some unique questions/tests. One wanted to have a staring contest. Another wanted his Uber score.
  22. Ha, so maybe he DOESN'T ask players stuff anymore!!! You know, if Jacoby vouched for the guy, lol,..
  23. I think the consensus here is..... absolutely yes. No one can come up with a reason why Ballard wouldn't. He's drafting high quality kids, so one would think he'd trust them. He's only asking for an opinion.
  24. So..... We've had an on-going debate... a number of fans here would like to see the Colts take a WR at pick 26. They'd rather have a top WR than a DL who might be the 9th or 10th best DL in the class. And some fans think there is real value with a 1st round WR. I'm not one of them. I've been posting for several years now articles on NFL.com talk about scouts saying there's no 1st round value in the most recent classes. That the value mostly comes in RDs 2-5. And scouts point to three problem area's for WR's coming out of college. 1. They're not taught to run the full full route tree. 2. They're not taught to read NFL defenses very well. 3. They don't learn the complex language of a play. The type of info you've heard from guys like Gruden and Mariucci when they put player on the white board to draw up a play. What many WR's get for a play call, is to look over on the sideline and see a big card with a picture of someone or something. That's not done on the NFL level. All of these add up to players who often aren't ready to contribute for their first few years while they learn on the job. I'm going to list all the first round WR's taken in the last 7 years. That's your most recent trend. 27 Wide Receivers have been taken in the first round. 11 have had a good level of success or more. Some of that is open to some interpretation. But 16 WR's can only be viewed as somewhere between a big disappointment to a bust. Some are even out of the NFL altogether. Remember this is just within the last 7 years. 2018: 24 DJ Moore Car 26 Calvin Ridley Atl NOTES: Two success stories. But note ONLY TWO WR's taken. That's it. Two. 2017: 5 Corey Davis Tenn 7 Mike Williams SD 9. John Ross NOTES: Two success stories. John Ross struggling badly his first two years. 2016: 15 Corey Coleman Cle 21 Will Fuller Hou 22 Josh Doctson Was 23 Laquan Treadwell Minn NOTES: All four misses. Coleman on his 4th team. 2015: 4 Amari Cooper Oak 7 Kevin White Chi 14 DeVante Parker Mia 20 Nelson Agholor Phi 26 Breshard Perriman Bal 29 Phillip Dorsett Ind NOTES: Six picks. Two hits. Cooper & Agholor. Four misses Note the six pick class comes a year after the historically great 2014 WR class. 2014: 4. Sammy Watkins Buff 7 Mike Evans TB 12 OBJ NYG 20 Brandin Cooks NO 28 Kelvin Benjamin Car NOTES: A five WR class and four are very successful. Only Benjamin is a miss. He's on his 3rd team. But note that two (Watkins & Cooks) are on their 3rd team. They're good players, but are you happy if your team took them only to see them get traded quickly? Is that real value? 2013: 8 Tavon Austin Stl 27 DeAndre Hopkins Hou 29 Cordarrelle Patterson Min NOTES: 3 players. One hit, two misses. 2012: 5 Justin Blackman J'Ville 13 Michael Floyd Ari 20 Kendell Wright Tenn 30 AJ Jenkins SF NOTES: Not only are all four misses, but all are out of football. Floyd was on five different teams. Wright had three good years, three disappointing years and is out of the game. Jenkins played just three years and has been out of the game ever since. So.... where is the value? A 40 percent success rate and that includes players who are good, but still got traded, some traded twice, and others allowed to leave via free agency. Much of the success rate of the last 7 years is skewed by the famous 2014 class. Otherwise.... The 60 percent fail rate includes guys who are OK, but haven't come close to delivering first round value. The rest are busts with some completely out of the game. So, I personally don't see Ballard using a first tomorrow on a WR. And most mocks seem to predict 2-3 WR's going in the first round. Again, this is just the last 7 rounds. We can go back even further if you want. This didn't just start magically in 2012. Here are some articles about the problems of having success drafting WR's in the first round. Sports illustrated on the problem of colleges turning out poorly trained kids. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/10/draft-wide-receiver-wr-first-round-busts-kyle-lauletta-jimmy-garoppolo-chad-kanoff-princeton CBS Sports pointing out the high bust rate for 1st Round WR's. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/where-have-the-wideouts-gone-explaining-the-recent-bust-rate-for-first-round-wrs/ A list of more than 30 first round wide receivers in the last 20 years that turned out to be very disappointing or busts. https://thesportsdrop.com/ Hopefully lots of food for thought.... some good discussion points... either way, I hope we take a WR, preferably by no later than R4. Looking forward to seeing what we do!
  25. Colts have been tight lipped about everything. It appears they have a close net on potential 'leaks'. From FA, to trades, to draft. Still, it would not surprise me to hear the scouts not actually in the draft room until day 3 though.
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