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Jules

So, is it over for Alex Smith in SF?

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Great, Belichick never loses against rookie QBs at home. Oh wait, he is not a rookie, just a first year QB!!! :)

Can Colin Kaepernick pull off against the Pats in Foxboro what Big Ben pulled off at Heinz field in his rookie year??? That will be interesting to watch. However, coming of a MNF game vs the Texans, it is a brutal physical team to play on a short week on SNF, IMO, the 49ers. More than the Texans game, the 49ers game will be real tough for the Pats from that point of view, especially if Gronk is not back.

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Great, Belichick never loses against rookie QBs at home. Oh wait, he is not a rookie, just a first year QB!!! :)

Can Colin Kaepernick pull off against the Pats in Foxboro what Big Ben pulled off at Heinz field in his rookie year??? That will be interesting to watch. However, coming of a MNF game vs the Texans, it is a brutal physical team to play on a short week on SNF, IMO, the 49ers. More than the Texans game, the 49ers game will be real tough for the Pats from that point of view, especially if Gronk is not back.

2 excellent points Chad72! :thmup: Colin Kaepernick is indeed no "wet behind the ears" neophyte NFL rookie. The kid can play now. Even if he throws an occasional pick who cares? Kaepernick seems to inspire confidence on the field IMO. Yup, Bill Belichick & Tom Brady will be superb competition for that entire 49ers squad. A nice post there Chad! ;)

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Yes, there is the flip side to the argument I know. What if Kaepernic has a miserable game? A valid point...However, where the Hades is Alex Smith gonna go? His best deal and situation is in San Francisco and everybody knows it. Jim Harbaugh will win a SB eventually. Just shut up Smith, do what Jim tells Ya, and you'll get a precious SB ring as a backup IMO. Remember both HOF QB's Dan Marino and Jim Kelly would kill for a ring themselves any way they could get 1 too IMHO. Winning the Lombardi Trophy trumps everything even personal pride.

On top of it he would get some credit for winning a ring too, since he started many more games.

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alex smith got his money before the new cba. he's had plenty of chances to prove himself & he has plenty of money to prove his play doesn't matter

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not like alex smith was a world beater.

No, but this year he was amongst the better QB's in these areas-

CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD LNG INT FUM QBR RAT 2012 Regular Season 152 217 1,731 70.0 7.98 13 55 5 4 69.8 104.1

I'm going to be watching Kaepernicks numbers after the first drive of each half and see how he fares. This will tell me whether he has it or not. Especially as folks get film on him.

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No, but this year he was amongst the better QB's in these areas-

CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD LNG INT FUM QBR RAT 2012 Regular Season 152 217 1,731 70.0 7.98 13 55 5 4 69.8 104.1

I'm going to be watching Kaepernicks numbers after the first drive of each half and see how he fares. This will tell me whether he has it or not. Especially as folks get film on him.

and then u actually watch him play and it's not that impressvie....

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and then u actually watch him play and it's not that impressive....

I don't know BOTT..QB Colin Kaepernick can actually move the chains and throw the ball downfield quite well IMO. Even if he struggles in a couple of games, Kaepernick is much more mentally poised & confident than Alex Smith could ever dream of being. Admittedly as more teams get tape on him, we will see how Kaepernick implements measures to counteract defensive measures to stop him that's true, but with that tremendous defense a QB doesn't have to be a top 10 field general either. Simply put, Colin Kaepernick consistently fires the ball downfield; Whereas, Alex Smith doesn't plain & simple.

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I have a buddy at work who's an long time 49ers fan. He thinks that Smith would give them a better chance in the playoffs. It's kinda fun to wind him up about it.

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I have a buddy at work who's an long time 49ers fan. He thinks that Smith would give them a better chance in the playoffs. It's kinda fun to wind him up about it.

Yeah, I know what you mean chadedward...I know a guy that loves Rex Ryan to a fault & he thinks next year will always be the SB year. I like messing with him in a non threatening & yet consistent, shortcomings format. It's so much fun. haha I'm not cruel naturally, but I also know how to push his Rex Ryan buttons. Just say Rex is a great DC, but he sucks as an HC...It gets him going everytime just like clockwork. :funny::lol:

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I don't know BOTT..QB Colin Kaepernick can actually move the chains and throw the ball downfield quite well IMO. Even if he struggles in a couple of games, Kaepernick is much more mentally poised & confident than Alex Smith could ever dream of being. Admittedly as more teams get tape on him, we will see how Kaepernick implements measures to counteract defensive measures to stop him that's true, but with that tremendous defense a QB doesn't have to be a top 10 field general either. Simply put, Colin Kaepernick consistently fires the ball downfield; Whereas, Alex Smith doesn't plain & simple.

I disagree there. Alex Smith won a playoff game against a hot offense like the Saints taking his team down for a winning TD drive in the last 2 minutes. Even if it was at home, I still am more confident with Alex Smith on the poise front. On the game planning front, Kaepernick poses more problems for opposing Ds and that is why he has been given the start, because of a higher ceiling. His ceiling is great but I just dont think it will be realized all in this year.

Kaepernick is mighty elusive but once a few Ds get a few licks on him outside the pocket, he might start rushing his throws and throwing more picks, and there goes the poise. If I am a D like the Ravens or Steelers or even Giants, Bears or Falcons, I'd take a 15 yard penalty to rattle the rookie once on purpose to see if I can make him rush his throws a tad more the next time. If all the marbles are on the lines, I sure as heck would. :)

It is all about mind games in the playoffs. If you stop the 49ers run, you will find out how well the rookie can throw on the run consistently. He is not a pocket passer by any means, he need a little bit of a roll out to pass well, it seems like. Teams that study those tendencies will say "let me blitz him with the edges blitzed to keep him inside and find out if Kaepernick AND the 49ers WRs can win 1-on-1 battles on the outside and contain him outside with 2 safeties". But, like I said, it is the 49ers run that makes Kaepernick tick and if you minimize that, his effectiveness goes down, IMO.

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I disagree there. Alex Smith won a playoff game against a hot offense like the Saints taking his team down for a winning TD drive in the last 2 minutes. Even if it was at home, I still am more confident with Alex Smith on the poise front. On the game planning front, Kaepernick poses more problems for opposing Ds and that is why he has been given the start, because of a higher ceiling.

Kaepernick is mighty elusive but once a few Ds get a few licks on him outside the pocket, he might start rushing his throws and throwing more picks, and there goes the poise. If I am a D like the Ravens or Steelers or even Giants, Bears or Falcons, I'd take a 15 yard penalty to rattle the rookie once on purpose to see if I can make him rush his throws a tad more the next time. If all the marbles are on the lines, I sure as heck would. :)

It is all about mind games in the playoffs. If you stop the 49ers run, you will find out how well the rookie can throw on the run consistently. He is not a pocket passer by any means, he need a little bit of a roll out to pass well, it seems like. Teams that study those tendencies will say "let me blitz him with both A-gaps blitzed and find out if Kaepernick AND the 49ers WRs can win 1-on-1 battles on the outside and contain him outside with 2 safeties". But, like I said, it is the 49ers run that makes Kaepernick tick and if you minimize that, his effectiveness goes down, IMO.

Yes Chad72, you are correct. Alex Smith was brilliant against the Saints last year & he did win a Playoffs game that is true. Does Alex deserve to start based on last year's success? Yes, on the surface. But, he failed to move the ball through the air & connect consistently with a WR or TE in the 2nd half. Tom Brady & Kurt Warner have established a successful NFL precedent for sitting down a veteran & inserting a rookie or limited QB experience wise in the starting lineup IMO.

Go ahead hit Kaepernick early & take a 15 yard penalty...Knock the stage fright jitters out...It's better than a cup of coffee or an adrenaline shot straight to the heart IMO. The Playoffs is about sheer brutality; no strategy involved here sheer intimidation on the offensive line and in the running game. Mind games are out the window just make your enemy bleed profusely and generously. Sometimes neophyte field generals surprise the Hades out of Ya as a squad. Sure, go ahead, let's see what Kaepernick is made of as quickly as possible shall we? Go for it!

Is Big Ben a pocket passer? Heck no. Let 'em roll out & see his accuracy on the move. Very few teams can stop the 49ers run game & the defense is the best I have seen since the 2000 Ravens personally. The defense can generate turnovers & score if they have IMO.

Alex Smith is done period. This move is more of an inditement of him than anything else. Alex is the problem not the solution. Colin will improve week to week; Alex will regress every week & sometimes with so much coordinators jargon floating around inside your head a QB is just not salvageable anymore for your current scheme & system.

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We may see Alex Smith in Jacksonville, or Arizona next year. Maybe even in a Jets uniform.

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If Harbaugh loses A. Smith by changing QB's, some other team will pick up and start Smith next year. Prob is, will it be in a system he knows and can run?

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Well the "eye" test for me says Colin K is a "far better player" as for as pure talent.

CK has a better arm, better running ability, and he just seems to have the "it" factor.

I do feel bad for Smith tho.. he went through like 5 or 6 OC's his first 5 or 6 years in the league.. That is just tough on any QB esp one playing on a bad team.

He is talented. He can make a lot of money playing backup or he could force at trade to another team. Arizona maybe?

Whatever happens some players just seem to make things happen (Colin K)... and some just don't. (Smith)

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I feel bad for Smith too. To me the real shame of it is he was a generation of QBs too early. Look at what teams are willing to do with Cam and RG3. A lot of pistol looks, heck even SF when CK is in runs multiple pistol looks, but not nearly as many with Smith. Smith came from a spread Urban Meyer offense, and had he been drafted today, maybe a team starts him in a more comfortable, familiar offense. People will knock Smith, point to Rodgers, but Smith and that last Utah team he was on was really, really good. Heck, Urban ended up in Florida because of the success. He will play somewhere, he's young, and has been successful if not spectacular. But I bet wherever he ends up the fan base won't be thrilled. I think he's destined to be the guy picked ahead of Rogers, which is a shame. There are far worse QBs in this league.

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I feel bad for Smith too. To me the real shame of it is he was a generation of QBs too early. Look at what teams are willing to do with Cam and RG3. A lot of pistol looks, heck even SF when CK is in runs multiple pistol looks, but not nearly as many with Smith. Smith came from a spread Urban Meyer offense, and had he been drafted today, maybe a team starts him in a more comfortable, familiar offense. People will knock Smith, point to Rodgers, but Smith and that last Utah team he was on was really, really good. Heck, Urban ended up in Florida because of the success. He will play somewhere, he's young, and has been successful if not spectacular. But I bet wherever he ends up the fan base won't be thrilled. I think he's destined to be the guy picked ahead of Rogers, which is a shame. There are far worse QBs in this league.

Great post... and spot on.

You are so correct.. the NFL is evolving... Coaching mentality anyway. I truly don't believe option football can sustain in today's NFL but....

we will see.

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You could argue that the situation at the time of his pick ans subsequently would have meant even if they take Rodgers it's the same outcome and Smith goes on to do quite well at GB after time behind a vet and being eased in as the starter.

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At the risk of taking this thread away from the direct topic, I see similarities in this coming draft. There is no clear cut #1 pick, and teams in need of a QB will functionally be left to decide between Geno Smith, a guy from a spread offense, and Matt Barkley, a guy from a more typical NFL offense. The knocks on Barkley are similar to those placed on Rodgers. The doubts about Geno Smith's ability to transition to the NFL are similar to those placed on Alex Smith. For a team like the Chiefs, the likely holder of the first pick, who will be in a position to take any player they want, do they over-value one of those QBs as the 49ers did out of necessity, or do they ignore their glaring need at the most important position in the game and take a more talented player at DT, or DE, etc. Safe pick, or high risk, high reward? And more broadly, does a team like the Chiefs make a similar mistake, like I believe the 49ers did, and try to make Geno Smith become an under-center pocket guy? Or is the NFL truly transitioning now, allowing changes in philosophies to fit QBs.

As an aside, look at how bad the 2005 draft was, just the first rounders (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2005).

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look back to the rams/niners tie. you have two 1st overall picks unable to win a game in OT. :facepalm: put any other elite qb in that game and it would have been over

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I'd keep the steady finger on the trigger if I was the Niners.

Smith isn't great, but it's too late in the season to watch CK have a meltdown.

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I feel bad for Smith too. To me the real shame of it is he was a generation of QBs too early. Look at what teams are willing to do with Cam and RG3. A lot of pistol looks, heck even SF when CK is in runs multiple pistol looks, but not nearly as many with Smith. Smith came from a spread Urban Meyer offense, and had he been drafted today, maybe a team starts him in a more comfortable, familiar offense. People will knock Smith, point to Rodgers, but Smith and that last Utah team he was on was really, really good. Heck, Urban ended up in Florida because of the success. He will play somewhere, he's young, and has been successful if not spectacular. But I bet wherever he ends up the fan base won't be thrilled. I think he's destined to be the guy picked ahead of Rogers, which is a shame. There are far worse QBs in this league.

....or he just isn't anything special, which i think is more likely. pistol shmistol

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....or he just isn't anything special, which i think is more likely. pistol shmistol

Very possible. But for most NFL fans who haven't had Manning or Luck, I'd bet they would appreciate a QB leading the league in completion percentage, not turning the ball over, being at the helm as the team goes to the championship game. They all can't have Brady, Rodgers, Manning, draft Luck, RG3... sometimes you have to work with what you have. I'd take Smith over a lot of the QBs on teams right now. It isn't dynamic, even very pretty or special, but it worked under Harbaugh. I'd wear my Super Bowl ring proudly if I was Trent Dilfer. There are lots of ways to win. It isn't always with 400 yards passing. More to the point, what do we know about CK? Two games a career doesn't make. Think CK might have a game or two when he looks like he's started a handful of games? If you're a 49er fan, hope that isn't in the playoffs. Risky move by the 49ers for sure.

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As a Niner fan, JH is taking the long-view on this. He was his hand-picked QB. He's been grooming CK for this. It came earlier than expected but this why we drafted him....to eventually lead this team. And he IS leading them. And he's doing it with his play on the field. The fact that he's even making this QB situation possible speaks to just how impressive his short body of work is. I told myself if he beat the Saints, he would earn the right for me to shut up and let JH get this kid ready.

I do think Alex is getting a raw deal. And part of me wanted Alex to lead this team to a SB just to shut-up all non-Niner fans, and some in our own fan-base who said it would never happen. But this is a grown man's game Alex knows how this works. He benefited from the same scenario years back when he sent his best friend, Shaun Hill into a back-up role, and eventually out of town, when he came in off the bench and impressed when Hill had been playing pretty good ball in previous games that season. This is the nature of the business. If it can happen to Montana, it can definitely happen to Alex. I think the guy is as solid a human being as you can possibly find. Never a bad word to say, even through this and all the other * he's endured throughout his career. But Alex knew, with the contract he signed, that this was very possible. I'm not driving the CK bus, but I'm not running it off the road either. He's done enough for me to just sit back see what happens. Not a move I would have made with a team who was humming along just fine, but nobody has his pulse on this team like JH. And if its any position I trust his judgement, its at QB.

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Very possible. But for most NFL fans who haven't had Manning or Luck, I'd bet they would appreciate a QB leading the league in completion percentage, not turning the ball over, being at the helm as the team goes to the championship game. They all can't have Brady, Rodgers, Manning, draft Luck, RG3... sometimes you have to work with what you have. I'd take Smith over a lot of the QBs on teams right now. It isn't dynamic, even very pretty or special, but it worked under Harbaugh. I'd wear my Super Bowl ring proudly if I was Trent Dilfer. There are lots of ways to win. It isn't always with 400 yards passing. More to the point, what do we know about CK? Two games a career doesn't make. Think CK might have a game or two when he looks like he's started a handful of games? If you're a 49er fan, hope that isn't in the playoffs. Risky move by the 49ers for sure.

trent dilfer was a long time ago...look who wins super bowls nowadays. i don't know a lot about ck...but i bet his coach does.

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trent dilfer was a long time ago...look who wins super bowls nowadays. i don't know a lot about ck...but i bet his coach does.

And how many QBs with 8 career starts have won one? I don't care either way, I'm not trying to defend Smith, nor do I dislike CK, but the window is small, the opportunities few, and it takes a huge set on Harbaugh to pull this trigger now. And it's CK's job now - so Harbaugh better hope CK doesn't play like a guy with two starts, as Smith might be mentally checked out. As for the more recent winners of SBs, you're right. But look at the other participants, see where those Steelers, Giants (2008), Bears, and Seahawk teams ranked in passing offense. And if the argument is CK provides the Eli, Rodgers, Brees kinds of numbers while Smith doesn't, the stats so far simply don't suggest that. CK has more yards per game, but in most other stats is doing worse than Smith, albeit in a tiny sample size. I am glad I'm not a 49ers fan, although I'm married to one, because there is a ton of risk in this in my mind. Not surprised this is happening, as the 49ers talked to Manning. When it is happening, not that it is happening, is surprising.

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And how many QBs with 8 career starts have won one? I don't care either way, I'm not trying to defend Smith, nor do I dislike CK, but the window is small, the opportunities few, and it takes a huge set on Harbaugh to pull this trigger now. And it's CK's job now - so Harbaugh better hope CK doesn't play like a guy with two starts, as Smith might be mentally checked out. As for the more recent winners of SBs, you're right. But look at the other participants, see where those Steelers, Giants (2008), Bears, and Seahawk teams ranked in passing offense. And if the argument is CK provides the Eli, Rodgers, Brees kinds of numbers while Smith doesn't, the stats so far simply don't suggest that. CK has more yards per game, but in most other stats is doing worse than Smith, albeit in a tiny sample size. I am glad I'm not a 49ers fan, although I'm married to one, because there is a ton of risk in this in my mind. Not surprised this is happening, as the 49ers talked to Manning. When it is happening, not that it is happening, is surprising.

well, he can always put smith back in

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I see P. and E. Manning's, Brady, Brees, Roesthlisburger's winning super bowls. Will CK be uncovered like Cam (who is now begniing to rebound), or have enough time to get through season and PO's before he has to face struggles?

After Manning?smith thing in offseason and Smith Kaepernick thing now, i believe Smith vacates the 49'ers ASAP. and who back's up CK if he gets popped then?

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I see P. and E. Manning's, Brady, Brees, Roesthlisburger's winning super bowls. Will CK be uncovered like Cam (who is now begniing to rebound), or have enough time to get through season and PO's before he has to face struggles?

After Manning?smith thing in offseason and Smith Kaepernick thing now, i believe Smith vacates the 49'ers ASAP. and who back's up CK if he gets popped then?

The next WAC QB they draft in the second round. It's only natural. :) But you pose an interesting question...will Kaepernick continue to be hot heading into the playoffs, or will he start feeling the pressure that a guy thrust into this situation usually feels? He could, ironically, very well prove to be the only bump the 49ers have in their road to the Super Bowl.

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For me, stats and results are 2 different things. If anyone has really been looking at the games, he finishes with Smith like numbers. He can elude the tackle all day, but if that doesn't equate to points (which it hasn't forreal), then it's all for nothing. I'm not on the Smith bandwagon but I do understand that Smith is a game manager, and from the 2 games that I saw, CK is a super athletic game manager. Does he have an upside? From what I can see, yes but I've long been off the "stats = results" boat. Tony Romo had a 441 yard, 3 TD game Thanksgiving and they lost. Pretty wins and ugly wins only matter in the subjective cesspool called college football polls.

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What's Smith's contract, is he tradeable, what's he worth? Bunch of teams would love to have I'd suspect, and pay pretty good.

yeah the chiefs would overpay for matt cassell 2.0

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I don't envy any team with a QB controversy. Despite all the politically correct rhetoric there is alot of pain and frustration. Recall Steve Young winning his first super bowl after Joe Montana left the forty niners saying "get this monkey off my back" referring to the legend of Montana. I am sure Luck was counciled by his dad and others when they knew he was headed to Indy after #18. Two QBs is like having tow spouses, it cannot work in the long run.

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I feel bad for Alex Smith, he's put in a lot of work , only to have CK ride his coat tails into the playoffs. But who knows CK might have a big let down game soon.

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I feel bad for Alex Smith, he's put in a lot of work , only to have CK ride his coat tails into the playoffs. But who knows CK might have a big let down game soon.

I see what you are saying about feeling bad for Alex Smith, but really, he wouldn't be benched f he learned to throw the ball down field. I live in the SF Bay Area and have a family friend as an executive in their FO. I watch all of their games, (my wife is a Niners fan) and I would call Alex Smith "Captain Checkdown" because that's essentially all he would do. I'm sure Frank Gore is gonna miss him.

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We need to sign the 2 best offensive linemen available no matter the cost. Or if we draft an ILB. Draft a G in RD 2-3. Bottom line is we can’t wait to have a good line when 12 is back next season. We got our man in Mack. Just need a complement to him. A bigger, more physical back. But Mack is our feature back of the future. Don’t mention the dropped passes. You all have seen what he can do in the run AND passing game. He’ll give 12 yet another weapon. Then Doyle, Swoope, whoever else ? Daniels ? Williams ? I’d say we draft a TE in the mid rounds. A faster, more athletic type to complement Doyle. But back to the point. IMO. IMO. Lol after we fix the OL with 2 studs, 2 stud ILB’s, and a brute Edge rusher (most important) we gotta bring in a big time WR like an Alshon Jeffery or Allen Robinson (1year) or both and let crief walk. We’d have Haeg, Good, a backup Center. RD6 ? Then either Clark or bring Mewhort back on a punk 1 year, get your butt out there and ball contract. Play him at RT baring a TRUE breakout by Haeg/Clark/Good.    Comes down to us having 90 mill or around 90 to spend. That’s 3 superstars and 3-5 solid backups, plus a bunch left probably. Idk. Just know a lot of money = Fun new toys !!!! Then couple that with the draft in which we’ll be having HIGH picks. Probably top 5-8ish in each RD. Basically 2 first RD picks with the high 2nd. Then Ballard has shown he can find talent like Mack and Hairston. SO FAR. Don’t know about Stewart yet. But yeah. Then add on top a handful of young players having a full or another full year under their belt. Anderson will probably be a superstar next year in year 4. Hooker will come back like a mad man. Melvin is a 4th year guy. Guess he’s one of those late bloomers I was talking about. Didn’t do crap first 3 years. Then sets the world on fire. Let’s kust hope he keeps it up. Cause he gives us a young 6’2 star CB. But Wilson and Hairston should be our 3-4 CB’s. If not 2-3. But IMO we can do all this.....This coming offseason. It’s simple and easy. We got money, high draft picks, and a franchise QB, plus some nice young up and coming players. But with 3-4 major FA signings, and hitting big on 3-4 draft picks. And I mean a ROY caliber player and a couple other day 1 star caliber starters. So. 1 Boss Edge rusher, 2 ILB’s with ( at least 1 with top notch coverage skills). 1 CB, 2 Offensive linemen, and a WR. That’s 7 big holes to fill. Big names like Jeffery or Robinson WILL hit the market. Justin Pugh may. Idk. Tru Johnson and Breeland are 2 CB’s but id have to read the list of FA’s. I’d like to see us grab Jeffery, Pugh, a stud, pro bowl type ILB,  and a top tier CB on free agency. 4 major signings. Then draft Arden Key, 2 boss ILB’s back to back, then RB, another Edge rusher, and a TE in RD’s 4-6. And Screw starting 3 rookie LB’s btw. Who cares ??? It’d be 100%. Perfectly fine as long as they ball. But we have losers like Jon Bostic who needs to be in Canada. And then Morrison should Be having to fight it out with Walker, George, Jackson, and maybe a cheap vet FA and an UDFA to see who wins the 2 backup ILB spots. Or 3. Need to sign a decent vet who comes from a winning team to be 1 backup. But yeah. Bottom line. Morrison should be on the bubble. Bottom line AGAIN. LAST TIME LOL. So. With the right signings, good draft, players developing.....We can compete for at least an AFC championship NEXT YEAR !!!!! Makes no sense as to why we wouldn’t be at least a 11-5 - 10-6 team next year. With just 7-8 holes to fill and the resources we have to do it. Let’s make it happen !!!!!
    • OK, so how many hits was Luck supposed to take as Grigson sat and watched? You don't get paid to guess. Anyone can guess. Put it another way, how is Luck doing now days?
    • #1 on your list has to happen first. I don't know if Irsay can do it.    But yes, I agree with you. We are taking our lumps but the end result will be better
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