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Colts offseason discussion / Ballard Grievances (merge)


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Just now, Superman said:

 

It's my opinion that it's disingenuous. Especially in this thread, where the people who are taking issue with specific decisions are not the people who only post negative things about Ballard.

Actually there are plenty of people in this thread who are posting only negative things about Ballard.  Again, I made it clear I was not talking about people who have specific issue with Ballard and said SOME, not all people in my original post.

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6 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

Yeah.  Harrison and Avery today... Why not Blackmon?

My guess is either he’s not crazy about Blackmon’s injury history and Harrison and Avery are significantly cheaper than Blackmon would be.

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7 hours ago, stitches said:

They are heavily influenced by luck on a team basis. We had really high sack numbers and really low pressure numbers. In the long run what's more predictive and descriptive of the strength of the pass-rush is the pressure rates, not the sacks. 

Ballard has a whole staff full of stat guys like you with the same charts and graphs. I think they have a different interpretation on the data then your take. It's impossible that he isn't aware of how the numbers come about what influences the numbers to fall a certain way. They haven't made major changes in the starting personnel on the DL. And I say this with respect to you. I don't sacks are luck bc people are taught how to get after the QB and how to beat blocks. They just don't luck into it unless we want to say Freeneys gold jacket was all luck. What else did he do good besides rush the passer?

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

We haven't got to this draft. We've seen him draft for 7 years before. But fair enough... lets see him overhaul the weapons and pass defense with the limited resources we have in the draft. 

He was never gonna "overhaul" the weapons on offense. He is gonna try to add a single difference maker. He is gonna rely on improvement from Richardson, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. He is gonna hope Jelani Woods can come back strong. 

 

He was never gonna "overhaul" the pass defense. He is gonna try to add a single difference maker. He is gonna rely on improvemenr from Brents and Jones. He is gonna hope Dallis Flowers can come back strong.

 

Im pretty sure he will sign someone in the next few days to help the secondary. Whether or not thats a guy like Snead or my personal preference Justin Simmons, we will have to wait and see.

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Just now, krunk said:

Ballard has a whole staff full of stat guys like you with the same charts and graphs. I think they have a different interpretation on the data then your take. It's impossible that he isn't aware of how the numbers come about what influences the numbers to fall a certain way. They haven't made major changes in the starting personnel on the DL. And I say this with respect to you. I don't sacks are luck bc people are taught how to get after the QB and how to beat blocks. They just don't luck into it unless we want to say Freeneys gold jacket was all luck. What else did he do good besides rush the passer?

I think when people say luck they are talking about the difference in Freeney making a spin move and getting to the QB vs just being in the right spot when the QB goes to scramble and gives himself up and they get credited with the sack.  Not saying that I agree with that just giving my tack on what they mean by luck.

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42 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's not a total bad thing. Our DLs converted pressures well last year, we had good sack production. The bad thing is that this is not sustainable. Teams don't convert over 20% of their pressures to sacks usually. In fact, the Colts were the only team that did it last year. 

 

24% doesn't tell us much of anything unless we compare it to the rest of the league. Here it is compared to the rest of the league... 

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This shows the Colts as one of the worst teams in the league at creating pressure. 

 

Is that pressures when we blitz, or all pass plays

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13 minutes ago, stitches said:

Precisely because I don't expect AJ Dillon to be one of the cheapest options for a backup RB and precisely because we are already spending 14M a year on Taylor. If he comes at a vet minimum or thereabout, I will change my tune. I just don't expect that. Again - resource allocation... we continue spending more and more resource on the things that are not the most pressing needs for this team. We need to improve the passing game on O and we need to improve the pass defense on D the most right now. And instead we are spending 7m a year for backup nose tackle who in the best case scenario will barely see the field and more money on a backup RB when teams are getting not just backups but starters late in the draft or even as UDFAs... I don't mind us getting depth... I mind us spending more than we need to for backups at non-essential positions. 

 

 So Taylor is out for the season with a training camp injury.

Steichen and our GM put their heads together and choose a particular insurance plan so that we can have a good enough run game to protect our QB and keep us competitive.

 And you are pre-but hurt over the possibility of player and price.

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7 minutes ago, krunk said:

Ballard has a whole staff full of stat guys like you with the same charts and graphs. I think they have a different interpretation on the data then your take. It's impossible that he isn't aware of how the numbers come about what influences the numbers to fall a certain way. They haven't made major changes in the starting personnel on the DL. And I say this with respect to you. I don't sacks are luck bc people are taught how to get after the QB and how to beat blocks. They just don't luck into it unless we want to say Freeneys gold jacket was all luck. What else did he do good besides rush the passer?

I never said they are just luck. But they have a much larger luck component than pressures. 

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Just now, stitches said:

This is all pass plays... 

Then when why put it on an XY graph?  One is supposed to correlate with the other.   I think that graph shows pressure percent on plays we blitz on

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Just now, Goatface Killah said:

He was never gonna "overhaul" the weapons on offense. He is gonna try to add a single difference maker. He is gonna rely on improvement from Richardson, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. He is gonna hope Jelani Woods can come back strong. 

 

He was never gonna "overhaul" the pass defense. He is gonna try to add a single difference maker. He is gonna rely on improvemenr from Brents and Jones. He is gonna hope Dallis Flowers can come back strong.

 

Im pretty sure he will sign someone in the next few days to help the secondary. Whether or not thats a guy like Snead or my personal preference Justin Simmons, we will have to wait and see.

As I pointed out yesterday they don’t have a lot of spots to overhaul with the weapons to start with.  They just re-signed Pittman and Downs is clearly the slot WR so that leaves Pierce’s spot.  Depending on who you talk to some feel his lack of productivity was because Ryan and Minshew couldn’t push the ball down the field and he will flourish with Richardson.  I am not sure I buy that so like I said I am cool with adding another WR high in the draft to push Pierce but I never expected a major free agent to be brought in because they were already going to pay Pittman and I don’t think they are ready to throw the towel in on Pierce.

 

That leaves the tight end room which is already pretty full and young even if you get rid of Mo.  Now if a game changer like Bowers falls in your lap at 15 sure you make that pick but they don’t need to force another tightened if Bowers doesn’t.

 

They are also clearly committed to Taylor as the starting running back so there aren’t a whole lot of spots for weapons to play and get snaps beyond a support role like Dillon would give them.  
 

As for the secondary I’ve been saying for weeks they aren’t in as bad of shape as some think at the corner spot.  Jones played extremely well for a rookie.  They drafted Brents high so of course they are going to expect him to get better and Flowers was playing really well before he got hurt.  As Ballard said last year, how do guys become vets?  They play.  Then they brought Moore back to handle the slot and also be the vet in the corner room.  I’ll see what happens with the Sneed stuff but I’ll be a little surprised if the Colts do make that trade but if they do that’s four good young corners plus Moore.  
 

Now safety is a little different, especially with Blackmon looking like he’s not coming back.  I think Cross will start at one spot and I think Thomas and Scott will be the back ups but they need another starter.  That could come with a free agent signing or again, a high draft pick.  

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7 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Then when why put it on an XY graph?  One is supposed to correlate with the other.   I think that graph shows pressure percent on plays we blitz on

No it doesn't. It shows what it says it shows. Pressure rate(in general) and blitz rate. It can help you see whether teams that blitz more, create more pressures in general. But it also shows you those two specific things as well... 

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23 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

He was never going to do that.  You are expecting something that was never going to happen.  That’s on you not him.

Oh don't tell me that! It is @Goatface Killah who's trying to convince me I should wait for the draft(no. 8 draft for Ballard) to see how Ballard is going to fix one of the worst pass defenses and one of the worst pass-catching groups in the league. 

 

I have long accepted that Ballard has a specific philosophy and he's running with it. I don't expect him to change at this point. 

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15 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I think when people say luck they are talking about the difference in Freeney making a spin move and getting to the QB vs just being in the right spot when the QB goes to scramble and gives himself up and they get credited with the sack.  Not saying that I agree with that just giving my tack on what they mean by luck.

Some sacks here and there can come by luck but there's a very good reason some are vastly better at it than others. The more of those types you have on your DL the better. And of course there is more to DL play than just sacks. I just don't see sacks as largely derived from luck when these guys spend a lot of time learning how to properly get through a defender, read keys and what not. 

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6 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Then when why put it on an XY graph?  One is supposed to correlate with the other.   I think that graph shows pressure percent on plays we blitz on

 

You can put whatever you want on an XY graph. Sometimes people make these graphs in a way that I think makes little sense, but that's probably up to interpretation. 

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Oh don't tell me that! It is @Goatface Killah who's trying to convince me I should wait for the draft(no. 8 draft for Ballard) to see how Ballard is going to fix one of the worst pass defenses and one of the worst pass-catching groups in the league. 

 

I have long accepted that Ballard has a specific philosophy and he's running with it. I don't expect him to change at this point. 

Sorry you don’t like it but Ballard was never going overhaul the offensive weapons and pass defense.  You saying “let’s see him overhaul the weapons and pass defense with his limited resources we have in the draft” really comes across like you are expecting that to be a goal of the off-season for Ballard.  It never was.  

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16 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 So Taylor is out for the season with a training camp injury.

Steichen and our GM put their heads together and choose a particular insurance plan so that we can have a good enough run game to protect our QB and keep us competitive.

 And you are pre-but hurt over the possibility of player and price.

And what if Dillon is out with a training camp injury?

 

There is no significant difference in what you can expect between backup RBs, whether they are signed in March or off the street in September. Hell, some people might even say there is no significant difference in what you can expect between starters and backup RBs... I won't go as far, but yeah... I don't think paying non-vet minimum for backup RB is optimal use of resources. 

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12 minutes ago, stitches said:

Oh don't tell me that! It is @Goatface Killah who's trying to convince me I should wait for the draft(no. 8 draft for Ballard) to see how Ballard is going to fix one of the worst pass defenses and one of the worst pass-catching groups in the league. 

 

I have long accepted that Ballard has a specific philosophy and he's running with it. I don't expect him to change at this point. 

Im trying to convince you that your expectations are completley unrealistic more than anything. Did you really expect him to overhaul the entire secondary and receiving corps? How was he gonna do that?

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4 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

As I pointed out yesterday they don’t have a lot of spots to overhaul with the weapons to start with.  They just re-signed Pittman and Downs is clearly the slot WR so that leaves Pierce’s spot.  Depending on who you talk to some feel his lack of productivity was because Ryan and Minshew couldn’t push the ball down the field and he will flourish with Richardson.  I am not sure I buy that so like I said I am cool with adding another WR high in the draft to push Pierce but I never expected a major free agent to be brought in because they were already going to pay Pittman and I don’t think they are ready to throw the towel in on Pierce.

 

That leaves the tight end room which is already pretty full and young even if you get rid of Mo.  Now if a game changer like Bowers falls in your lap at 15 sure you make that pick but they don’t need to force another tightened if Bowers doesn’t.

 

They are also clearly committed to Taylor as the starting running back so there aren’t a whole lot of spots for weapons to play and get snaps beyond a support role like Dillon would give them.  
 

As for the secondary I’ve been saying for weeks they aren’t in as bad of shape as some think at the corner spot.  Jones played extremely well for a rookie.  They drafted Brents high so of course they are going to expect him to get better and Flowers was playing really well before he got hurt.  As Ballard said last year, how do guys become vets?  They play.  Then they brought Moore back to handle the slot and also be the vet in the corner room.  I’ll see what happens with the Sneed stuff but I’ll be a little surprised if the Colts do make that trade but if they do that’s four good young corners plus Moore.  
 

Now safety is a little different, especially with Blackmon looking like he’s not coming back.  I think Cross will start at one spot and I think Thomas and Scott will be the back ups but they need another starter.  That could come with a free agent signing or again, a high draft pick.  

 

Agree somewhat about Pierce, I guess he ran more route yards that anyone in the league, so he's probably in good shape.  But I think Thomas Jr. is basically him but an upgrade.  I love the kids attitude as much as his talent.

 

If Bowers is there at 15 you have to take him, the kid is a baller.  The TE room is good, and big if Ogletree and Woods can play.  But I'd still take Bowers.

 

I think we need a veteran, besides Kenny, at CB.  Brents looks good, Jones was getting exposed at the end of the season, and even if they're counting on Flowers, it's a thin group.  Sneed would fit in nicely.

 

If we don't re-sign Blackmon, they need an upgrade.  Nico Collins streaking down the field was enough to see that's true.

 

So my draft board wish list would have Bowers, Thomas Jr., and if they're gone an Edge like Verse or Chop.  But I'm kind of expecting to hear "The Indianapolis Colts have traded the 15th pick..."

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6 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Sorry you don’t like it but Ballard was never going overhaul the offensive weapons and pass defense.  You saying “let’s see him overhaul the weapons and pass defense with his limited resources we have in the draft” really comes across like you are expecting that to be a goal of the off-season for Ballard.  It never was.  

I wasn't expecting that. It was a snarkier than needed retort to @Goatface Killah;s post trying to convince me to wait for the draft before I make big conclusions and for that I apologize to @Goatface Killah. But yeah... my overall point was - I have no expectations that Ballard will deviate from his modus operandi in the draft any more than he has in the past. 

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5 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

Im really happy for Kenny. One of my favorites.

Same he is my favorite.  So I am really glad he’s back.  Not that others haven’t earned it but him and Lewis came the hard way and good to see guys like that not only succeed but get rewarded for it.

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38 minutes ago, stitches said:

I never said they are just luck. But they have a much larger luck component than pressures. 

This is just unequivocally not true.

 

A lot of good pressuring CJ Stroud on that long pass to Nico Collins did us.....

 

You can literally get a pressure just because the QB didnt trust his protection and fled the pocket too early. You did absolutely nothing and got a pressure. You can get a pressure on a 50 yard pass play. Who cares? 

 

Its one of the most misleading stats there is. The person watching it doesnt even know if the QB felt pressured or not. Does it even matter if the QB didnt feel it? 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

Im trying to convince you that your expectations are completley unrealistic more than anything. Did you really expect him to overhaul the entire secondary and receiving corps? How was he gonna do that?

Overhaul the whole thing? Probably not... at least make some significant steps in an attempt to do it? I harbored some minor hopes for that. 

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1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Same he is my favorite.  So I am really glad he’s back.  Not that others haven’t earned it but him and Lewis came the hard way and good to see guys like that not only succeed but get rewarded for it.

Never forget the chronic complainers wanted to cut him a few years ago. Js 

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According to a tweet from Dov Kleiman posted on BR NFL news the Eagles appear to be backing away from Simmons because his “asking price is way too high”.  Take that for what it’s worth.  If true it makes me think it might be too high for Ballard as well.

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

Overhaul the whole thing? Probably not... at least make some significant steps in an attempt to do it? I harbored some minor hopes for that. 

I dont even see anybody he missed out on that wouldve done that. Xavier McKinney? Hes been a little too injury prone for me.  

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6 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

This is just unequivocally not true.

 

A lot of good pressuring CJ Stroud on that long pass to Nico Collins did us.....

 

You can literally get a pressure just because the QB didnt trust his protection and fled the pocket too early. You did absolutely nothing nothing and got a pressure. You can get a pressure on a 50 yard pass play. Who cares? 

 

Its one of the most misleading stats there is. The person watching it doesnt even know if the QB felt pressured or not. Does it even matter if the QB didnt feel it? 

 

 

The point is that over the long haul when the QB is pressured he's less efficient, even when he's not sacked. This is universally true throughout the league. A single play here or there doesn't change that... well... those are just part of the larger sample. When you draw the line - more pressures = better pass defense, less points for the opponent, more wins for you. 

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14 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

Agree somewhat about Pierce, I guess he ran more route yards that anyone in the league, so he's probably in good shape.  But I think Thomas Jr. is basically him but an upgrade.  I love the kids attitude as much as his talent.

yeah I have no problem with Thomas Jr or another WR as I said.  

14 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

If Bowers is there at 15 you have to take him, the kid is a baller.  The TE room is good, and big if Ogletree and Woods can play.  But I'd still take Bowers.

yeah that’s pretty much what I was saying by saying if he falls in your lap.  I was just saying short of that tightend isn’t a need and if they take Bowers it’s because he’s a game changer and those are rare and when you can get one you do regardless of position not so much because they need another tightend.

14 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

I think we need a veteran, besides Kenny, at CB.  Brents looks good, Jones was getting exposed at the end of the season, and even if they're counting on Flowers, it's a thin group.  Sneed would fit in nicely.

I don’t know if I would call three starting caliber corners plus maybe the best slot corner in the NFL thin.  That’s actually pretty deep.  Still I am not against trading for Sneed depending on the price.

14 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

If we don't re-sign Blackmon, they need an upgrade.  Nico Collins streaking down the field was enough to see that's true.

yeah again that’s what I was saying by saying they need another starter at safety because I don’t think Blackmon is coming back and I don’t think Thomas is good enough and while we haven’t seen Davis yet I wouldn’t gamble on a fifth round pick coming off missing a year being the guy either.  

14 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

So my draft board wish list would have Bowers, Thomas Jr., and if they're gone an Edge like Verse or Chop.  But I'm kind of expecting to hear "The Indianapolis Colts have traded the 15th pick..."

I am just going to see what’s there.  I think if Bowers, Thomas (or another highly graded WR) or Verse is there the Colts will pull the trigger (if they don’t trade the pick to get Sneed).  If they aren’t then yeah I think they will trade back.  Part of picking at 15 is you have to see how the draft unfolds.  If there is a major QB rush (and I mean beyond the big three) and lineman rush odds are one of the three listed above will slip to 15.  If that doesn’t happen then there is a good chance they won’t be.

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

The bolded isn't really a part of my argument. I think it makes sense to turn the page on anything that was happening prior to 2023.

 

And I don't really agree with the popular viewpoint of the Hooker pick; I think safety is an important position, and I think Hooker was an elite prospect. To me that's very different from signing run defenders when we can't cover the pass.

 

Also, I'm not asking Ballard to trade for Brian Burns or L'Jarius Sneed. I just would rather see the resources spent on run defenders spent on players who can help improve the pass rush and pass defense. I think that would make the Colts more competitive against the best teams in the NFL, the teams that have success in the playoffs. 

right so you want DE instead of DT, but we already invested in Paye, and Dayo. Also Ebukam. We don't have a top-tier pass rusher, but outside of hunter there really wasn't an option. 

 

ballard is doing what he always has done, draft, pay his own guys, and bargain dive during FA. Hooker wasn't my pick, but at the end of the day since the hooker pick, he's been doing the same thing. our first-rounders have all gone to fill a need, not necessarily BPA. 

 

and yes, im willing to go pick by pick, year by year to argue it. hooker, paye, buck, wentz all 1st round picks to FILL a spot. and guess what, he's about to do the same thing. I bet we take DE, WR, or CB all early depending on if we get snead or not will dictate CB vs WR

 

we also had a decent amount of sacks, rather people wanna find some convoluted way of discounting it or not

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

The point is that over the long haul when the QB is pressured he's less efficient, even when he's not sacked. This is universally true throughout the league. A single play here or there doesn't change that... well... those are just part of the larger sample. When you draw the line - more pressures = better pass defense, less points for the opponent, more wins for you. 

I would agree with that if you werent tossing out a franchise record in sacks like it was a complete fluke.

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4 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

I dont even see anybody he missed out on that wouldve done that. Xavier McKinney? Hes been a little too injury prone for me.  

It's not just what he didn't do. It's what he is actively doing. He continues to emphasize the trenches... and in the most run-focused way possible. Extended Franklin who is strictly a run-defender, instead of going for someone like... Frankie Luvu for example, who got a similar contract and is much better player than Franklin and better in all the ways that would have helped our pass defense - incredible coverage linebacker, one of the best in the league, great blitzer(pass-disruption again). Instead of goinf for some of the DLinemen who are more pass-rush oriented, he re-signed Grover(run stuffer) and signed a 7M backup for him(another run stuffer). We still haven't made any addition to the secondary and it seems like we are losing Blackmon(still not officially confirmed, but people are saying he's scrubbed everything Colts related from his social media) who was one of the better coverage players for us last year. 

 

So yeah... I really don't see how he could have done anything worse for our pass-defense... maybe if we let Kenny go too. But then it would have been unmitigated disaster. 

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40 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

As I pointed out yesterday they don’t have a lot of spots to overhaul with the weapons to start with.  They just re-signed Pittman and Downs is clearly the slot WR so that leaves Pierce’s spot.  Depending on who you talk to some feel his lack of productivity was because Ryan and Minshew couldn’t push the ball down the field and he will flourish with Richardson.  I am not sure I buy that so like I said I am cool with adding another WR high in the draft to push Pierce but I never expected a major free agent to be brought in because they were already going to pay Pittman and I don’t think they are ready to throw the towel in on Pierce.

 

That leaves the tight end room which is already pretty full and young even if you get rid of Mo.  Now if a game changer like Bowers falls in your lap at 15 sure you make that pick but they don’t need to force another tightened if Bowers doesn’t.

 

They are also clearly committed to Taylor as the starting running back so there aren’t a whole lot of spots for weapons to play and get snaps beyond a support role like Dillon would give them.  
 

As for the secondary I’ve been saying for weeks they aren’t in as bad of shape as some think at the corner spot.  Jones played extremely well for a rookie.  They drafted Brents high so of course they are going to expect him to get better and Flowers was playing really well before he got hurt.  As Ballard said last year, how do guys become vets?  They play.  Then they brought Moore back to handle the slot and also be the vet in the corner room.  I’ll see what happens with the Sneed stuff but I’ll be a little surprised if the Colts do make that trade but if they do that’s four good young corners plus Moore.  
 

Now safety is a little different, especially with Blackmon looking like he’s not coming back.  I think Cross will start at one spot and I think Thomas and Scott will be the back ups but they need another starter.  That could come with a free agent signing or again, a high draft pick.  

Post of the month!  Congrats. 

 

You've laid out clearly why we have no idea how close we are to being in the AFCCG.  A bunch of young players that you don't know what you have,  but also don't give up on yet.   Including AR, most of our players will be unknown quantities for a season or two (probably when Buckner needs to be replaced).  Makes no sense to splash the market now with FA money.

 

Spending resources on run stuffers does seem odd.  But I guess it helps to prevent being gashed in the run game for a game or two so the team will be less likely to win only 6 to 7 games next year.  That high-floor thingy we've gotten used to.

 

Safety....., probably a high draft pick to grow with the young guys.  A vet's talent trajectory would not mesh with when the young corners will be hitting their stride.  As far as Corners, didn't Ballard draft three corners last year (one was released...barely)...resigned one yesterday....and now we're gonna make a big trade for Snead?   I don't see it.

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5 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

 

I would agree with that if you werent tossing out a franchise record in sacks like it was a complete fluke.

Again... it's not a complete fluke... but it has larger luck component and is less predictive about what we should expect going forward than the pressures number. 

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16 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

According to a tweet from Dov Kleiman posted on BR NFL news the Eagles appear to be backing away from Simmons because his “asking price is way too high”.  Take that for what it’s worth.  If true it makes me think it might be too high for Ballard as well.

 

If you do want a system fit and an experienced presence that will be affordable, I would go after a young Tracy Walker of the Lions:

 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/tracy-walker/51266

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tracy-walker-landing-spots-potential-fits-with-lions-releasing-veteran-safety-after-six-seasons-in-detroit/

 

I think he has potential and upside.

 

Eddie Jackson of the Bears would be a vet presence having played in the Eberflus system but I am sure none of those excite us. George Odum was a find by Ballard that had been long ignored but made valuable contributions for us, so did Mike Mitchell. It is all up to the coaching. I do like Walker personally.

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