AFC South and AFC Playoff picture/ Remaining Schedules (MERGE) Updated OP + on page 61 - post week 17. AFC Clinching Scenarios page 61

[husker61]

4 hours ago, JediXMan said:

I got the Ravens winning the AFC but man I know Ravens fans are nervous about how Flacco and the Browns are looking lately.

when I saw the highlights and Flacco was the qb, I said he is no joke and clev is going to be dangerous. I would have rather had him than gm.

[w87r]

On 11/19/2023 at 8:07 PM, w87r said:

Updated Week 16 Standings:

 

* - Still to play

x - clinched playoffs 

 

AFC South Standings:

Jags 8-7, 4-1, 6-5(Panthers, @Titans)

Colts 8-7 , 3-2, 6-4(Raiders, Texans)

Texans 8-7, 2-2, 5-5(Titans, @Colts)

Titans 5-10, 0-4, 3-7(@Texans, Jaguars)

 

 

 

AFC Playoff Picture:

x-1. Ravens 12-3, 3-2, 7-3, .529, .517 (Dolphins, Steelers)

x-2. Dolphins 11-4, 4-1, 7-3, .418, .364 (@Ravens, Bills)

3. Chiefs 9-6, 3-2, 7-3, .502, .452 (Bengals, @Chargers)

4. Jaguars 8-7, 4-1, 6-5, .560, .500 (Panthers, @Titans)

x-5. Browns 11-5, 3-2, 7-3, .533, .513 (@Bengals)

6. Bills 9-6, 2-2, 5-5, .484, .481 (Patriots, @Dolphins)

7. Colts 8-7, 3-2, 6-4, .480, .433 (Raiders, Texans)

 

 

 

 

Still in the Hunt:

8. Texans 8-7, 2-2, 5-5, .476, .450 (Titans, @Colts)

9. Steelers 8-7, 4-1, 6-5, .520, .542 (@Seahawks, @Ravens)

10. Bengals 8-7, 0-5, 3-7, .556, .517 (@Chiefs, Browns)

11. Raiders 7-8, 3-2, 5-5, .484, .410 (@Colts, Broncos)

12. Broncos 7-8, 2-2, 4-6, .502, .505 (Chargers, @Raiders)

 

 

 

Eliminated:

Chargers 

Jets

Titans 

Patriots 

 

Updated post TNF Week 17

Updated OP and above

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Having Flacco has helped the Browns not put so much pressure on their defense. The rookie and Walker were just not cutting it on offense.  Stefsnski could be coach of the year.

[Colts1324]

41 minutes ago, w87r said:

Updated OP and above

Can anybody chime in on this? Based upon the above updates standings..

 

 

If Colts win & the Steelers, Bengals, & Texans all lose - aren’t we almost assuredly getting a spot even with a loss next week?

 

All the teams would be 9-8 at best. We would have the best conference record & divisional record over the Texans. 

 

 

[Believe blue1306]

6 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

Can anybody chime in on this? Based upon the above updates standings..

 

 

If Colts win & the Steelers, Bengals, & Texans all lose - aren’t we almost assuredly getting a spot even with a loss next week?

 

All the teams would be 9-8 at best. We would have the best conference record & divisional record over the Texans. 

 

 

If that happened I believe the bengals would have to lose their last game as well. If they won, colts and bengals would be 9-9 and bengals have the head to head. We win out it’s looking good. 

[w87r]

4 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

If Colts win & the Steelers, Bengals, & Texans all lose - aren’t we almost assuredly getting a spot even with a loss next week?

Pretty much.

 

There is a couple different scenarios on page 48 that goes over this exactly.

 

If we win and those 3 lose then all that we would need to happen, even with loss in week 18, would be:

 

Browns beat the Bengals in week 18.

 

 

 

There are a lot of other ways it could happen also.

 

If Bengals win we would need:

Broncos to finish 2-0

 

Or

 

Steelers beat Ravens(nothing to play for)

 

 

There is more, those are easiest to project.

[MarylandTerrapin]

Imagine if the Texans/Colts and Browns/Bengals games are included in the 4:25pm games on week 18 and they are the only remaining 9-7 teams based on the 1pm results.  The Colts kick a GW FG against Hou, and seconds later, the Browns line up for a GW FG, it hits the upright and bounces off, giving the Bengals the win, the tiebreaker, and the #7 seed.  How many flatscreen TVs would be destroyed by Colt fans that evening?  I would almost rather us lose against the Raiders & Texans altogether than to go through that anguish.  If you think that's harsh, you should see YT videos of Saints fans after the Minneapolis Miracle or Seahawks fans after the Wilson goal line pick in the SB.  There are some disturbed people out there. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, Colts1324 said:

Can anybody chime in on this? Based upon the above updates standings..

 

 

If Colts win & the Steelers, Bengals, & Texans all lose - aren’t we almost assuredly getting a spot even with a loss next week?

 

All the teams would be 9-8 at best. We would have the best conference record & divisional record over the Texans. 

 

 

Yep it won’t be official but would be hard to miss even with a loss to Texans.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If ravens beat dolphins chances are higher that browns are going to sit players.

[w87r]

7 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

If ravens beat dolphins chances are higher that browns are going to sit players.

Definitely.

 

 

Dolphins beating Ravens would be nice this weekend.

[Colts1324]

2 minutes ago, w87r said:

Definitely.

 

 

Dolphins beating Ravens would be nice this weekend.

I see the Chiefs beating the Bengals this week, so that should help give them 8 losses. It’s likely that at least one other team (Houston, Pittsburgh, or Denver) has 8 losses to give Colts the tiebreaker

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

I see the Chiefs beating the Bengals this week, so that should help give them 8 losses. It’s likely that at least one other team (Houston, Pittsburgh, or Denver) has 8 losses to give Colts the tiebreaker

Denver already has 8.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

Definitely.

 

 

Dolphins beating Ravens would be nice this weekend.

Looks like Waddle is going to be out these last two games. Hopefully Hill is healthy. 

[w87r]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Denver already has 8.

They would need to stay there and win out.

 

 

8 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

I see the Chiefs beating the Bengals this week, so that should help give them 8 losses. It’s likely that at least one other team (Houston, Pittsburgh, or Denver) has 8 losses to give Colts the tiebreaker

I think the Chiefs win as well.

[richard pallo]

Just read an article ranking offensive lines heading into this weekends games.  Colts are 4th ranked and Raiders are ranked 29th.    Kinda makes me think we might be getting a few sacks or interceptions if they are forced to throw the ball.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

At least win or lose Dolphins have something to play for week 18. Either the number one seed or the division. So that could help colts with bills too.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Imagine if Ravens and Browns were the AFCCG. So many story lines there with Flacco and Harbaugh. Them playing against each other at all would be a fun story line.

[husker61]

37 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Just read an article ranking offensive lines heading into this weekends games.  Colts are 4th ranked and Raiders are ranked 29th.    Kinda makes me think we might be getting a few sacks or interceptions if they are forced to throw the ball.  

a lot of people have been saying the colts o-line hasn’t been good. I have been saying it’s more because of the rpo because it takes the drive blocking away from the line because they could get a penalty if it is a pass play and they are down field. That and the colts not playing two blocking te’s. This is all on the coach, not the players or Ballard.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Waddle has been ruled out for Dolphins and Ravens.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[RollerColt]

So at this point, whoever wins the AFC South wins a date with the Browns for the first game of Super Wildcard Weekend… I’m not sure I’d want to be that team lol…

[DiogoSales]

4 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

So at this point, whoever wins the AFC South wins a date with the Browns for the first game of Super Wildcard Weekend… I’m not sure I’d want to be that team lol…

This or 7th seed and play Miami without Julian. Cannot be afraid in the playoffs.

[csmopar]

7 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

So at this point, whoever wins the AFC South wins a date with the Browns for the first game of Super Wildcard Weekend… I’m not sure I’d want to be that team lol…

With the parity that is the AFC this year, any of the 7 teams that get in, could very well make the Super Bowl. No one looks unbeatable, and the average margins of victory is less than 10 points across the entire AFC top 7 seeds. Gonna be an epic playoffs 

[JediXMan]

9 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

So at this point, whoever wins the AFC South wins a date with the Browns for the first game of Super Wildcard Weekend… I’m not sure I’d want to be that team lol…

It’s whatever the Browns have 7 games they won 4 points or fewer they’re also beatable just like anyone else.

[RollerColt]

14 minutes ago, csmopar said:

With the parity that is the AFC this year, any of the 7 teams that get in, could very well make the Super Bowl. No one looks unbeatable, and the average margins of victory is less than 10 points across the entire AFC top 7 seeds. Gonna be an epic playoffs 

I’d say the Ravens are the closest, but even they have lost to teams like us. 
 

Who the hell knows really… 

[Dunk]

And....the Colts came within a questionable PI call of beating the Browns in the regular season.

[lester]

28 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

So at this point, whoever wins the AFC South wins a date with the Browns for the first game of Super Wildcard Weekend… I’m not sure I’d want to be that team lol…

 

If its the Browns, I think we WANT the browns. We owe them.

[Superman]

Trevor Lawrence is out...

 

 

[JediXMan]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

Trevor Lawrence is out...

 

 

Hope Bryce Young as a career day.

[w87r]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

Trevor Lawrence is out...

 

 

Beathard probably gives them their best chance to win. 

 

Saying that:

[tweezy32]

I’d love to face the browns. If we got to face anyone I’d hope it’s them. I want my revenge!

[JediXMan]

The Raiders being the lowest is surprising lol.

[w87r]

3 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Waddle has been ruled out for Dolphins and Ravens.

You know, I've been thinking, this game can be good either way potentially.

 

Even if Ravens Clinch, I think the Browns would be trying to secure the #5 seed and play the South winner, instead of the Chiefs. So if the Bills beat the Patriots, that will open up the Bills still fighting for the #5 seed with the Browns and trying to win last game.

 

Then something else that ties in, maybe Pats can get the Bills? That would open up another 10-7 tie breaker team if it got there.

 

Back to Dolphins and Ravens, of Dolphins lost to Ravens and the Bills they would be a 3rd team to be tied at 10-7 as well.

 

 

Obviously it Ravens lose, Browns will be playing for the win, no doubt. 

 

Hopefully Dolphins would play to.beat the bills anyway? I'm sure they will be trying to get Tyreek Hill some records.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 minutes ago, w87r said:

You know, I've been thinking, this game can be good either way potentially.

 

Even if Ravens Clinch, I think the Browns would be trying to secure the #5 seed and play the South winner, instead of the Chiefs. So if the Bills beat the Patriots, that will open up the Bills still fighting for the #5 seed with the Browns and trying to win last game.

 

Then something else that ties in, maybe Pats can get the Bills? That would open up another 10-7 tie breaker team if it got there.

 

Back to Dolphins and Ravens, of Dolphins lost to Ravens and the Bills they would be a 3rd team to be tied at 10-7 as well.

 

 

Obviously it Ravens lose, Browns will be playing for the win, no doubt. 

 

Hopefully Dolphins would play to.beat the bills anyway? I'm sure they will be trying to get Tyreek Hill some records.

Good point. It also helps if dolphins lose because then they are playing for the division and a bills loss week 18 is good for colts.

[Superman]

I guess the main path is to get the division, which is still in play even if we lose one of the next two. But the Jags would have to lose.

[w87r]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

I guess the main path is to get the division, which is still in play even if we lose one of the next two. But the Jags would have to lose.

Just ran this scenario:

Jags 0-2

Colts 1-1(beat Raiders, lose to Texans)

Texans 1-1(beat Colts, lose to Titans)

 

 

Colts win division 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/indianapolis-colts-nfl-playoff-picture.html#ind-lv-17=win&jax-car-17=loss&hou-ten-17=loss&ten-jax-18=win&ind-hou-18=loss

 

 

EDIT: this scenario works for going 1-1 with a win against either Raiders or Texans.

 

[Superman]

Just now, w87r said:

Just ran this scenario:

Jags 0-2

Colts 1-1(beat Raiders, lose to Texans)

Texans 1-1(beat Colts, lose to Titans)

 

 

Colts win division 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/indianapolis-colts-nfl-playoff-picture.html#ind-lv-17=win&jax-car-17=loss&hou-ten-17=loss&ten-jax-18=win&ind-hou-18=loss

 

 

Yeah I was just doing the same on ESPN. But if we win out, and the Steelers win out, I think we're in no matter what the Jags do.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Who wins division in this scenario? Texans or Colts?

 

 

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Who wins division in this scenario? Texans or Colts?

 

 

Never mind see this was already asked.

[w87r]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah I was just doing the same on ESPN. But if we win out, and the Steelers win out, I think we're in no matter what the Jags do.

I'm just talking about division.

 

 

If we win out the only way we don't make it(WC) is if Bengals win out and no other team is at 10-7.

 

2 way tie will leave us out.

 

Bills can easily finish 10-7 still.

 

Steelers are @Seattle and @Baltimore so they will have their hands full.

 

 

We need the Chiefs to take care of Bengals then more or likely 9-8 will even get us in.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

That scenerio could go the other way if jags go 0-2. Colts then just have to beat the Texans.