Better or Worse?

[2006Coltsbestever]

23 minutes ago, DougDew said:

This wins the post of the month.

Not really, QBR isn't the tell all. AR was still 22nd in QBR rating, far from the worst. Watson, Howell, and Dobbs all have a QBR rating higher than AR and those QB's have looked like doo doo. I go by the whole picture of what I am watching, not 1 stat to fit a narrative. Kirk Cousins is 2nd in the league in passing yards and he isn't even a top 10 QB. If I wanted to make Yards my narrative, I could say Kirk is the 2nd best QB in the league and great, which is far from the truth.

[RollerColt]

Just now, chad72 said:

In the limited time we saw AR play, he wasn't turning it over as much as I expected him to and was smart about it. He may not have been efficient but I'd rather him have an incompletion than an INT.

And that very well could be due to his velocity. With some of those missiles... Ain't nobody catching that thing... 

 

I was expecting a lot more turnovers as well. Especially fumbles. I figured with him running so much that would be a factor. 

[DougDew]

Before y'all argue over your speculations,  its a moot debate because we will only know one side of it.

 

Anybody who thinks we'd have done better or worse with AR is just speculating.

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Before y'all argue over your speculations,  its a moot debate because we will only know one side of it.

 

Anybody who thinks we'd have done better or worse with AR is just speculating.

 

Yep, we just speculate about speculations, opine about opinions...  

[2006Coltsbestever]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Before y'all argue over your speculations,  its a moot debate because we will only know one side of it.

 

Anybody who thinks we'd have done better or worse with AR is just speculating.

I 100% agree, we have no way of knowing.

[TheEdgeis1]

I like minshew and what he brings, but if he wants to win games he has to improve his pocket presence and scrambling ability to extend plays.
 

 I hope with Cleveland’s big win this weekend they let it go to their head and come out and lay an egg against us.

[Nickster]

18 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

For the Colts sake, I hope @Nickster is right about Minshew increasing our chances. But we have seen this story before, he plays well for a few games on a streak but then teams catch on and his limitations get exposed more over the course of an entire season. The same thing happened with Nick Foles. Caught lightning in a bottle towards the end of the season for the Eagles' SB run, then did a similar thing for the Bears for a playoff game but when asked to play for an extended set of games, he couldn't maintain a high level of play since his limitations were exposed. There was no alternate gear or out of structure ability to overcome his limitations. 

 

For the record, I meant only slightly.  I've never really thought of this team as a 500 or so club.  They have had some good results so, so I hope to be wrong about that.  That performance Sunday was statistically the worst of his career, a game in which he accrued 25 percent of his career total in TOs lol.  

The Jags are really just better than us all over the field though IMO.  Even when they were bad and we were good a couple of years ago in the JT season they ended our season famously, but even the game at Indy before that that I attended, they played better than us and that was during the best spell we've had since the early Luck years.  We were rolling along and they outplayed us badly after the 1st Q.

 

We haven't matched well with them in a few years now IMO.  

[Nickster]

29 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Not really, QBR isn't the tell all. AR was still 22nd in QBR rating, far from the worst. Watson, Howell, and Dobbs all have a QBR rating higher than AR and those QB's have looked like doo doo. I go by the whole picture of what I am watching, not 1 stat to fit a narrative. Kirk Cousins is 2nd in the league in passing yards and he isn't even a top 10 QB. If I wanted to make Yards my narrative, I could say Kirk is the 2nd best QB in the league and great, which is far from the truth.

 

QBR is quite a lot. 

 

It's calculated differently by different sites, but when you look at a list of the QBRs, it seems pretty accurate.

[JMichael557]

With AR we are even with the jags. Without him you see the result. Same with Lawrence. If he were out the game would change. 

[Nickster]

27 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Before y'all argue over your speculations,  its a moot debate because we will only know one side of it.

 

Anybody who thinks we'd have done better or worse with AR is just speculating.

 

Now I think you will agree with me, that your post being said now and clearly out in the open . . . Feel free to speculate on this open forum Colts message board dedicated to discussing Colts FB. 

 

But yeah when you argue against someone's speculations with speculations, I guess you are speculatively speculating but somehow not really speculating?  I've never really go it lol. 

[Nickster]

2 minutes ago, JMichael557 said:

With AR we are even with the jags. Without him you see the result. Same with Lawrence. If he were out the game would change. 

 

How do you figure?  We scored 14 offensive points with AR in v. the Jags. 

 

I mean we lost by 7 more this week than the first time at their stadium.  

 

I'm not seeing what you are suggesting. 

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Now I think you will agree with me, that your post being said now and clearly out in the open . . . Feel free to speculate on this open forum Colts message board dedicated to discussing Colts FB. 

 

But yeah when you argue against someone's speculations with speculations, I guess you are speculatively speculating but somehow not really speculating?  I've never really go it lol. 

I had the same reaction to the intense criticisms of Frank's play calling.  How does anybody know that what we didn't do would have worked out better than what we did?  

 

I get conversation, but intense arguing....which is usually prompted by intense opinion......is weird.  How can someone be so convinced that what didn't happen would have been better than what actually happened? 

 

[Nickster]

14 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I had the same reaction to the intense criticisms of Frank's play calling.  How does anybody know that what we didn't do would have worked out better than what we did?  

 

I get conversation, but intense arguing....which is usually prompted by intense opinion......is weird.  How can someone be so convinced that what didn't happen would have been better than what actually happened? 

 

 

Because they say so. 

[JMichael557]

26 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

How do you figure?  We scored 14 offensive points with AR in v. the Jags. 

 

I mean we lost by 7 more this week than the first time at their stadium.  

 

I'm not seeing what you are suggesting. 

If you are not seeing it I cannot help you because the evidence is in front of you. In the first Jags game we were in the lead and should have won. Most of that is due to AR's influence on the game and this was his first game.  His play was continuing to improve. 

 

In the Jags game we were out of that game almost immediately. We cannot score with GW and the team knows its. this affects the defense as well. 

 

AR's affect on defenses is immense.

[Nickster]

4 minutes ago, JMichael557 said:

If you are not seeing it I cannot help you because the evidence is in front of you. In the first Jags game we were in the lead and should have won. Most of that is due to AR's influence on the game and this was his first game.  His play was continuing to improve. 

 

In the Jags game we were out of that game almost immediately. We cannot score with GW and the team knows its. this affects the defense as well. 

 

AR's affect on defenses is immense.

 

We scored 14 points dude on offense and had less than 300 yds.  So his influence wasn't all that immense lol. 

[Chucklez]

5 hours ago, Nickster said:

 

Yeah, but really?  AR left with a 7 points lead v. Hou and we won by 11 and he left with a 4 point lead v. Tenn and we won by 7 so looking at it from your logic, Minshew increased the leads he was left with both times.  Plus you are talking Minshew coming in during the 1st Q or early 2nd Q.

 

Minshew played around 6 of the 8 Qs in those two wins.   The lion's share of the work in both of those wins was from GM.  

i notice how you rather conveniently left out part of my comment which covered how those teams had prepared for richardson during the week.

Then we get the team that prepared for Minshew, and they demolished him.

[ShuteAt168]

Man, I think this is easy — AR gives us a better chance. (But I can see the other side as well.) 

[RollerColt]

Something to consider: in his two starts with the Eagles, Minshew threw three interceptions and had four fumbles and lost both games last year. 

[holeymoley99]

I have a strange feeling we see Sam taking some snaps this game.......

[Dunk]

I always felt that Minshew was more of a I won't wow you, but I won't make the big mistake kind of guy.

That's why Sunday's game shocked me. 

I don't blame him for the strip sack, but had never seen him throw passes directly to defenders. Is Jville that good that they fooled him 7 or 8 times, or was it just a freak bad day at the office?

[Nickster]

4 hours ago, Dunk said:

I always felt that Minshew was more of a I won't wow you, but I won't make the big mistake kind of guy.

That's why Sunday's game shocked me. 

I don't blame him for the strip sack, but had never seen him throw passes directly to defenders. Is Jville that good that they fooled him 7 or 8 times, or was it just a freak bad day at the office?

One of those passes just got away from him.  He just like threw it to the backstop.

 

I’ve said this a few times today so if you’ve seen it sorry lol. But Minshew has 50 combined pass and rush TDs and 21 combined TOs.  So his 4 TO performance Sunday was almost 25% of his total career TOS.  That’s really something.  It should be anomaly.

 

If not.  Oof.

[Nickster]

7 hours ago, Chucklez said:

i notice how you rather conveniently left out part of my comment which covered how those teams had prepared for richardson during the week.

Then we get the team that prepared for Minshew, and they demolished him.

I didn’t forget I just don’t think it’s that significant. There may be some effect but Minshew doesn’t do anything you need special prep for.    If you went from prepping for GM and then to AR, that would be much more significant IMO.

But the Shew didn’t get to prep for the D either with 1st team reps.  Did you convenient forget that lol?

 

 

 

[Chucklez]

3 hours ago, Nickster said:

I didn’t forget I just don’t think it’s that significant. There may be some effect but Minshew doesn’t do anything you need special prep for.    If you went from prepping for GM and then to AR, that would be much more significant IMO.

But the Shew didn’t get to prep for the D either with 1st team reps.  Did you convenient forget that lol?

 

 

 

 

If the defense preparing for an entirely different style of offense and quarterback is irrelevant (which it's not btw), then the backup QB preparing for the same defense as the starting QB (just not with the 1s) is even less relevant (or significant) of an argument to make, so not sure what point you were trying to make there my dude. This is especially when Minshew has multiple years of experience with Steichen's offense.

I don't think Minshew is as bad as his performance against the Jags last Sunday, but we are most definitely not better off or more likely to win with him under center compared to Richardson. The offense just becomes so much more limited and 1 dimensional with him back there, and defences know it.

[Nickster]

On 10/17/2023 at 11:13 AM, RollerColt said:

 

I'll get one thing out of the way. I'm not advocating that Richardson as of right now is better than Minshew. The stats show this. 

 

 

yeah that was what my poll was about.  If AR was healthy at this point I’d still be for starting him around the half way point of the season even though I think GM gives us a little more chance to win right now.  If GM has a future with this team and it’s not a s a backup or coach.  Eeeah.

On 10/17/2023 at 11:13 AM, RollerColt said:

But, I do think that Richardson's talent level allows the team a better chance to win, but it's a double edged sword because as a rookie with limited experience he's also more likely to cost us a win. Richardson can throw on the run. He has decent feel in the pocket. He was starting to make good reads against defenses. He also throws the ball way too hard which was in part why we had so many drops. 

 

I guess my point is that more often than not, Minshew is not a game changer, and therefore he doesn't often influence the outcome of the game compared to Richardson. 

 

I'll toss out this past weekend as an anomaly (hopefully). 

Hopefully it was anomaly.  It should be.  But if not oof.

[RollerColt]

22 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

yeah that was what my poll was about.  If AR was healthy at this point I’d still be for starting him around the half way point of the season even though I think GM gives us a little more chance to win right now.  If GM has a future with this team and it’s not a s a backup or coach.  Eeeah.

Hopefully it was anomaly.  It should be.  But if not oof.

It might be another bad game considering Miles Garrett is lining up across from him. 

[NFLfan]

On 10/17/2023 at 12:27 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Not really, QBR isn't the tell all. AR was still 22nd in QBR rating, far from the worst. Watson, Howell, and Dobbs all have a QBR rating higher than AR and those QB's have looked like doo doo. I go by the whole picture of what I am watching, not 1 stat to fit a narrative. Kirk Cousins is 2nd in the league in passing yards and he isn't even a top 10 QB. If I wanted to make Yards my narrative, I could say Kirk is the 2nd best QB in the league and great, which is far from the truth.

 

These ratings all have their flaws and do not make sense at timez. The Athletic has their own rating similar to QBR. They had Richardson rated higher than Minshew before the last game. However, it shows Minshew doing better after the Jacksonville game despite how poorly he played. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

36 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

These ratings all have their flaws and do not make sense at timez. The Athletic has their own rating similar to QBR. They had Richardson rated higher than Minshew before the last game. However, it shows Minshew doing better after the Jacksonville game despite how poorly he played. 

The problem with any statistical measure is, it doesn't factor in eye test for one, or things like presence that a QB brings, leadership of a QB, or how clutch a QB is. A QB can have eye popping stats and their QBR can be in the top 5, but if they aren't clutch and play bad situational football in the last 5 minutes of a game, they are going to fail against the other good times more times than not. Herbert and Cousins both are great examples of this! Why some don't get that is puzzling. Getting the win is all that matters in the end. Not throwing for 300 yards, 3 TD's, 0 INT's to have a great QBR or great stats. 

[RollerColt]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The problem with any statistical measure is, it doesn't factor in eye test for one, or things like presence that a QB brings, leadership of a QB, or how clutch a QB is. A QB can have eye popping stats and their QBR can be in the top 5, but if they aren't clutch and play bad situational football in the last 5 minutes of a game, they are going to fail against the other good times more times than not. Herbert and Cousins both are great examples of this! Why some don't get that is puzzling. Getting the win is all that matters in the end. Not throwing for 300 yards, 3 TD's, 0 INT's to have a great QBR or great stats. 

Thats why I have my top active QBs as:

 

1. Mahomes

2. Burrow

3. Stafford

 

When it’s needed they can answer the call and win the game. 
 

What would have been… had we traded for Stafford… 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, RollerColt said:

Thats why I have my top active QBs as:

 

1. Mahomes

2. Burrow

3. Stafford

 

When it’s needed they can answer the call and win the game. 
 

What would have been… had we traded for Stafford… 

I wanted Stafford as well back in 2021 and we ended up with freakin Wentz.

 

Right now if I had to go war on a football field, the 5 QB's I would trust here in 2023 would be:

1. Mahomes

 

2. Burrow - he's been there before.

 

3. Hurts - he's been there before.

 

4. Allen - he has won playoff games and is borderline great.

 

5. Lamar - he has an MVP under his belt and is getting his mojo back like he had a couple years ago. He is the best dual QB in the NFL for my money.

 

That would be my top 5. No stats are going to tell me differently.

 

 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

No.

 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

27 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I wanted Stafford as well back in 2021 and we ended up with freakin Wentz.

 

Right now if I had to go war on a football field, the 5 QB's I would trust here in 2023 would be:

1. Mahomes

 

2. Burrow - he's been there before.

 

3. Hurts - he's been there before.

 

4. Allen - he has won playoff games and is borderline great.

 

5. Lamar - he has an MVP under his belt and is getting his mojo back like he had a couple years ago. He is the best dual QB in the NFL for my money.

 

That would be my top 5. No stats are going to tell me differently.

 

 

 

There are Lies, Darn Lies, and then there are  Stats.

[2006Coltsbestever]

In a playoff game for example. If the Bengals play the Dolphins and Burrow is healthy, I would trust Burrow more to get the win over Tua. Bengals have a good enough D as well to win a game like that.

[King Colt]

Irony: Jets bring Rodgers to boost them to a Super Bowl run and out the first game of the year. Colts bring in AR to build a winner and he is out after four games. Two first year disasters.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Here is the greatest stat of all-time regarding QBR. I just looked up the 20 best QBR's per season in the history of the NFL. David Garrard has the 7th best QBR of all-time at 80.9, that was back in 2007  . He had a better QBR than Peyton did in 2009, in 2009, Peyton was at 80.7. That automatically disqualifies that stat of being any kind of measure alone. There are probably people in here that have no idea who the hell Garrard even is 

[chad72]

Nice to revisit this thread....hmmm...😉