Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[GoColts8818]

Just now, chad72 said:

FA might give us clues, I feel. Both Buckner and Nelson cost us first rounders, hate to part with either.

 

IF it’s a future 1st, and current 2nd, no reason to give up any player now that Stroud has declared.

Nelson’s new contact and the hit that will cause will probably prevent him from being traded even if the Colts wanted too.

[richard pallo]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Kenny Moore is the one I can see going to bears. But QB supersedes anything else so they might have to do something they wouldn’t otherwise do. 

I think they are going to want a premium player.  That’s not Moore.  He certainly could be included.

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Sounds like if they offer Campbell a fair deal he wants to come back. I think knowing we are drafting a QB and hopefully stability is coming should help him come back. 

Buckeye to Buckeye (Stroud to Campbell) followed by another Buckeye Marvin Harrison Jr. Next year  

 

Thats why we need next year’s first rounder 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Arizona needing a DE changes  things a little for Bears. Do they want Anderson bad enough to not trade to 4.  Could bears just stay at 1.  Then we might not get our number one choice.

[Aaron86]

17 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Odds are Young doesn’t get out of the top-10.   Murray is 5’10”.   Wilson is 5’10 and 5/8”.   
 

I love the kid, he has all the intangible’s you want, but his height/weight scare the heck out of me.   Too much risk. 

I might be wrong but I can see him dropping to the 2nd just on his size alone. I like what he can do but the question is can he stay healthy and be the franchise QB a team needs? That is my only concern with him. Maybe a team like the Panthers will take a shot at him. 

[RollerColt]

47 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I know you think it’s true.  But stop and ask yourself this.  If you’re Chris Ballard do you want this out in public if it’s true?    No.    You only want this out if it helps you.  
 

Remember, the number one rule in the draft season is that most leaks are FALSE. They are smoke screens. 
 

There’s only a few people in the Colts building who know that info right now.   The only reason for the “source” to give out that info is to benefit the Colts, not hurt the Colts.   If you’re the source are you risking your job giving up the info against Ballard’s orders?   No.   You’re giving up the info because Ballard wants the info out there.  
 

Odds are extremely high this is a smoke screen.    And I think it’s fine.   It’s smart.    Shows a lot of thought by the front office. 

It’s true. The Buckner trade was completely out of left field at the time it happened. No one was expecting it nor were there rumors. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, Aaron86 said:

I might be wrong but I can see him dropping to the 2nd just on his size alone. I like what he can do but the question is can he stay healthy and be the franchise QB a team needs? That is my only concern with him. Maybe a team like the Panthers will take a shot at him. 

If Payton  for some odd reason took the Texans job he would get his clone of Drew Brees.

[richard pallo]

7 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Nelson’s new contact and the hit that will cause will probably prevent him from being traded even if the Colts wanted too.

I don’t see how a Nelson trade post June 1st would prevent a trade.  Dead cap and cap savings are almost identical 6m.
 

[NewColtsFan]

3 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

I don't disagree with you BUT smoke screen for who?? Don't you think the other 31 GM's  know this because they do it themselves? 

 

I think draft and off-season rumors are mostly just to write something for their websites, youtubers, and feed hungry for information fans.

 

But overall your right, it doesn't mean much if anything. 

Fair points.    Yes, the other 31 GMs know this is a smoke screen.   But this info is still mostly targeted to them. 
 

It’s basically saying the Colts like multiple players and will be happy NOT to pay a crazy asking price to move up for one guy. The Colts would be happy to trade up with a different team asking less OR stay put and be happy to take whoever falls to them.   
 

I think this is a smart move.  I’m glad the tweet was made.  Happy Chloe posted it.   I just believe this is a prime example of it’s now smoke screen season.  Every team lies to their benefit.   I hope this helps the Colts.  

[JColts72]

10 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Buckeye to Buckeye (Stroud to Campbell) followed by another Buckeye Marvin Harrison Jr. Next year  

 

Thats why we need next year’s first rounder 

Guess you want Jeff as HC to get him?

[Aaron86]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

If Payton  for some odd reason took the Texans job he would get his clone of Drew Brees.

Maybe. But the coach is not the only person calling the shots. Maybe he would want young but I could see him and the FO wanting CJ more.

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, JColts72 said:

Guess you want Jeff as HC to get him?

????

 

What are you talking about? What does Jeff Saturday have to do with Buckeyes? Or are you confusing me for someone else?

Marvin Harrison Jr. Would be along the lines of Chase with Burrow, got it? Not because of ex Colt nostalgia.

[Aaron86]

34 minutes ago, JColts72 said:

No way Young will go 2nd round. 

Its just my opinion but if you think about it, it might happen. I wouldn't touch him after watching Tua this year.

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, Aaron86 said:

I might be wrong but I can see him dropping to the 2nd just on his size alone. I like what he can do but the question is can he stay healthy and be the franchise QB a team needs? That is my only concern with him. Maybe a team like the Panthers will take a shot at him. 

Your fears are my fears.   we see this similarly.   

 

But at some point the risk/reward ratio changes for many teams.   A top-10 pick might scare some teams.   But once you fall to a certain point in the first round, some team, likely multiple teams will decide the risk is now worth it to them.   

[jvan1973]

1 hour ago, DaColts85 said:

You can say Oklahoma right now. Mayfield and Murray are in the league as top picks. You have Hurts as well as an MVP potential. 

Mayfield is a bust.  Hurts played more games for Bama than he did Oklahoma 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

.    Yes, the other 31 GMs know this is a smoke screen.   But this info is still mostly targeted to them. 
 

It’s basically saying the Colts like multiple players and will be happy NOT to pay a crazy asking price to move up for one guy. The Colts would be happy to trade up with a different team asking less OR stay put and be happy to take whoever falls to them.   
 

I think this is a smart move.  I’m glad the tweet was made.  Happy Chloe posted it.   I just believe this is a prime example of it’s now smoke screen season.  Every team lies to their benefit.   I hope this helps the Colts.  

 

Only Fair points?

I thought they were at the very least "good points" 

[NewColtsFan]

8 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

It’s true. The Buckner trade was completely out of left field at the time it happened. No one was expecting it nor were there rumors. 

So?    What does no rumors about the Buckner trade have to do with this pick?   They are completely unrelated.   Each situation is unique.   Just because the Colts didn’t leak with Buckner doesn’t mean a leak now is true. 
 

I believe the leak.  I believe the Colts put it out there on purpose.   But that doesn’t mean it’s true.  It doesn’t make sense if it’s true.  It only makes sense as a smoke screen. 

[Aaron86]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

Your fears are my fears.   we see this similarly.   

 

But at some point the risk/reward ratio changes for many teams.   A top-10 pick might scare some teams.   But once you fall to a certain point in the first round, some team, likely multiple teams will decide the risk is now worth it to them.   

I agree. The only thing is all the teams have watched what happened to Tua and there is going to be a ? with Young. especially with players like Max Duggan, Ar-15, Hooker and others. It's just my thoughts but I can definitely see it happening.

[Coltsbluefan]

57 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

There's no way I trade future 1st for anybody in this class 

I totally agree..hope our front office is listening.Take whoever is left at 4 and leave it at that,not much difference between Stroud,Levis,Young,or Richardson.Since theirs no Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden in this draft,I would take Jalen Carter or Will Anderson and then take Hooker with our  2nd rounder IMO.

[Fluke_33]

1 hour ago, danlhart87 said:

If Texans offer something like 2nd and 12th we can't compete with that

I think the 4th, 2nd rounder this and next and Q or Defo would match.   There are other ways to get there.

[coming on strong]

I WAS just watchin the herd and sean payton is on   the texans want him and he is interviewing with them .   he said the saints want a 1st round pick for trade .     texans would have to give one of their first round picks so they would have less capital to trade up with .   instead of two 1st this year it would be only 1 first left

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

I WAS just watchin the herd and sean payton is on   the texans want him and he is interviewing with them .   he said the saints want a 1st round pick for trade .     texans would have to give one of their first round picks so they would have less capital to trade up with .   instead of two 1st this year it would be only 1 first left

I just posted in the HC thread Payton said it would be a mid to late first depending on team. Texans have the 12th pick. My guess it would be a future pick though not this years. But you are right if they gave up this years that’s pretty big.

[RollerColt]

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

So?    What does no rumors about the Buckner trade have to do with this pick?   They are completely unrelated.   Each situation is unique.   Just because the Colts didn’t leak with Buckner doesn’t mean a leak now is true. 
 

I believe the leak.  I believe the Colts put it out there on purpose.   But that doesn’t mean it’s true.  It doesn’t make sense if it’s true.  It only makes sense as a smoke screen. 

I was agreeing with you that Ballard keeps the real moves close to the vest… sorry.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

 

 

I guess that makes the colts a lock for him.....Irsay & SamE. 

[chad72]

Just now, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

I guess that makes the colts a lock for him.....Irsay & SamE. 

 

Personally I don't want Sean Payton. Jim Harbaugh first, Mike Kafka next is my wish list.

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

Can't think like that. Every season is different. This is a golden opportunity for the franchise to finally get back on track with a franchise QB. Stroud is not like Haskins or Barnett or any other Ohio State QB. The kid is a franchise changer

i hope he is if we get him

[NewColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

I was agreeing with you that Ballard keeps the real moves close to the vest… sorry.

Sorry.   Somehow that wasn’t my takeaway.   And we typically see things similarly.    I think when you started with “That’s true”, I thought you were agreeing with Chloe that the tweet was credible. 
 

Sorry for the confusion.  

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

8 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I just posted in the HC thread Payton said it would be a mid to late first depending on team. Texans have the 12th pick. My guess it would be a future pick though not this years. But you are right if they gave up this years that’s pretty big.

imo no coach is worth a first or second

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, DEFENSE said:

imo no coach is worth a first or second

I agree. I think it’s dumb.

[GoColts8818]

34 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I don’t see how a Nelson trade post June 1st would prevent a trade.  Dead cap and cap savings are almost identical 6m.
 

Trading him post June 1st wouldn’t help them with the draft which is what people are wanting to do with trading him.

[richard pallo]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Trading him post June 1st wouldn’t help them with the draft which is what people are wanting to do with trading him.

I think that is just a designation.

[chad72]

6 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

imo no coach is worth a first or second

 

Texans will give up their 2nd rounder and tell the Saints "take it or take a hike". Saints can get something for Payton now or wait and get nothing for him, IMO.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I think that is just a designation.

Yep. It just wouldn’t be official and you would have to trust the trade partner.

[RollerColt]

9 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Sorry.   Somehow that wasn’t my takeaway.   And we typically see things similarly.    I think when you started with “That’s true”, I thought you were agreeing with Chloe that the tweet was credible. 
 

Sorry for the confusion.  

It’s all good. It makes sense to throw smoke screens out there for as long as possible. 

[GoColts8818]

10 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I think that is just a designation.

It’s not for trades only two for releases.  The only way you can take advantage of that is if you do it post June 1st which equals no draft pick this year.

[Dobbinblitz]

Stroud: From a Columbus Dispatch Article today.

 

"C.J. Stroud is the most efficient quarterback in Big Ten history

Stroud has the most efficient season of any quarterback in Big Ten history, posting a pass efficiency rating of 186.6 in 2021, which is an Ohio State and conference record."

 

"C.J. Stroud has the second-most passing yards in Ohio State history

In two seasons as Ohio State's starting quarterback, Stroud recorded more passing yards than all but one former Buckeye: J.T. Barrett.

Stroud is one of two Ohio State quarterbacks, along with Barrett, to eclipse 8,000 career passing yards, recording 8,123 in 830 career pass attempts."

 

 

[GoColts8818]

2 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

It’s not.  The only way you can take advantage of that is if you do it post June 1st which equals no draft pick this year.

Also here is the details on Nelson’s contract:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/quenton-nelson-25101/

 

Trading him would cost the Colts $30 million if done after June 1st. 

[Solid84]

1 hour ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Arizona needing a DE changes  things a little for Bears. Do they want Anderson bad enough to not trade to 4.  Could bears just stay at 1.  Then we might not get our number one choice.

Are we even sure the Bears are focusing on Anderson? They could be perfectly happy with Carter too?

[chad72]

12 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Also here is the details on Nelson’s contract:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/quenton-nelson-25101/

 

Trading him would cost the Colts $30 million if done after June 1st. 

 

In the NFL, margins of winning and losing are smaller. It is easier to get pass catchers and RBs from the draft than seasoned OL and DL. I would not trade Buckner or Nelson for this reason. 

 

I know we have recency bias with Nelson but long term, his level will be back to the better level we are used to from him. Plus, how many times have we seen a team losing close games in a year only to win many of those the next year to take the next step as a division winner with the right QB and HC? No reason to blow things up and have a garage sale if you watched the games and how we were in it a lot more than the end result seemed to indicate.