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2023 Colts Salary Cap Situation/ Discussion


w87r
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Cap Ramifications for Nelson and Leonard:

Nelson:(Counts $12.2m against the cap in 2023)

Nelson is locked in for a year maybe 2, he isn't going anywhere.

If they would trade him before June 1st next year, he would have a dead cap hit of $24.8m(more than twice what he is supposed to count against the cap)

Post June 1st trade:

2023 Dead Cap: $6,200,000

2024 Dead Cap: $18,600,000

2023 Cap Savings: $6,000,000

2024 Cap Savings: $6,600,000

2025 Cap Savings: $16,580,000

2026 Cap Savings: $18,000,000

 

Like I said, he isn't going any next season and his contract is cheap(ish).

 

Now come 2024, if Colts want to get out of his deal it would be easily achievable.

Pre June 1st release/trade:

2024 Cap Savings: $6,600,000

Post June 1st release/trade:

2024 Dead Cap: $6,200,000

2025 Dead Cap: $12,400,000

2024 Cap Savings: $19,000,000

2025 Cap Savings: $10,363,059

2026 Cap Savings: $18,000,000

 

If traded his contract won't be too much a deterrent for teams:

2024 Cap Hit - $19m(guaranteed)

2025 Cap Hit - $16.58m(non guaranteed)

2026 Cap Hit - $18m(non guaranteed)

 

 

Leonard:(Counts $20.21m against cap in 2023)

If Colts wanted to move on from Leonard this off-season it could be done as well.

 

pre June 1st trade:

2023 Dead Cap: $12,000,000

2023 Cap Savings: $8,210,000

2024 Cap Savings: $20,124,000

2025 Cap Savings: $23,550,000

2026 Cap Savings: $19,700,000

 

post June 1st trade:

2023 Dead Cap: $4,000,000

2024 Dead Cap: $8,000,000

2023 Cap Savings: $16,210,000

2024 Cap Savings: $12,124,000

2025 Cap Savings: $23,550,000

2026 Cap Savings: $19,700,000

 

Easily could be moved to where it isn't crippling our cap.

 

Now if we want to move on in 2024:

Pre June 1st trade/release:

2024 Dead Cap: $8,000,000

2024 Cap Savings: $12,124,000

2025 Cap Savings: $23,550,000

2026 Cap Savings: $19,700,000

 

Post June 1st trade/release:

2024 Dead Cap: $4,000,000

2025 Dead Cap: $4,000,000

2024 Cap Savings: $16,124,000

2025 Cap Savings: $19,550,000

2026 Cap Savings: $19,700,000

 

 

Leonard's contract if traded:

2023 Cap Hit: $16.2m ($12m guaranteed)

2024 Cap Hit: $16.124m (non guaranteed, $6.5m guaranteed for injury only)

2025 Cap Hit: $19.55m(non guaranteed)

2026 Cap Hit: $19.7m(non guaranteed)

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Very nice research. When things are going bad it's an easy thing to point fingers at everything Including the cap space. Other than striking out on offensive linemen Ballard has done a pretty good job. The problem is there is a severe shortage of offensive linemen available and 90% of GMs have trouble finding them. 

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27 minutes ago, w87r said:

Reserved for Braden Smith's contract ramifications starting this off-season.

 

Smith:($19m against cap, $19m dead cap)

POST-6/1 RELEASE:

2023 Dead Cap: $13,000,000

2024 Dead Cap: $6,000,000

2023 Cap Savings: $6,000,000

2024 Cap Savings: $10,683,000

2025 Cap Savings: $19,750,000

 

POST-6/1 TRADE:

2023 Dead Cap: $3,000,000

2024 Dead Cap: $6,000,000

2023 Cap Savings: $16,000,000

2024 Cap Savings: $10,683,000

2025 Cap Savings: $19,750,000

 

 

 

Push it out to 2024:

PRE-6/1 RELEASE/TRADE:

2024 Dead Cap: $6,000,000

2024 Cap Savings: $10,683,000

2025 Cap Savings: $19,750,000

 

POST-6/1 RELEASE/TRADE:

2024 Dead Cap: $3,000,000

2025 Dead Cap: $3,000,000

2024 Cap Savings: $13,683,000

2025 Cap Savings: $19,750,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outside of that, what is everyone's thoughts on this?

 

Better situation than you anticipated?

What are the biggest needs if it plays out like this?

 

Updated this:

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29 minutes ago, w87r said:

Reserved for Braden Smith's contract ramifications 

 

 

Outside of that, what is everyone's thoughts on this?

 

Better situation than you anticipated?

What are the biggest needs if it plays out like this?

 

Thank you for all this. Cap genius you be

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  • w87r changed the title to 2023 Colts Salary Cap Situation/ Discussion
  • w87r unpinned this topic


Ok….   The work is BRILLIANT and deeply appreciated.   I’ve got some obligations that will keep me from fully responding for at least 3 hours, maybe more.  
 

But there are TWO players who you did not address.   Looking forward to you projecting what the Colts do with Pittman and Taylor?    FWIW, in August projected Taylor at 4/65.   That was pre-injury and terrible O-line.   Haven’t seen a projection on Pittman, but based on @Superman work I’m guessing 3/63. 
 

If both are even close, what does that do to the Colts cap? 
 

Again, thanks for all you did here!    :worthy:

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11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


Ok….   The work is BRILLIANT and deeply appreciated.   I’ve got some obligations that will keep me from fully responding for at least 3 hours, maybe more.  
 

But there are TWO players who you did not address.   Looking forward to you projecting what the Colts do with Pittman and Taylor?    FWIW, in August projected Taylor at 4/65.   That was pre-injury and terrible O-line.   Haven’t seen a projection on Pittman, but based on @Superman work I’m guessing 3/63. 
 

If both are even close, what does that do to the Colts cap? 
 

Again, thanks for all you did here!    :worthy:

Yeah, was meaning to include more possible extensions(Pittman/Taylor). Just forgot as I was posting all that other mess.

 

 

Will work on putting together a couple contract details.

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19 minutes ago, w87r said:

Yeah, was meaning to include my more possible extensions(Pittman/Taylor). Just forgot as I was posting all that other mess.

 

 

Will work on putting together a couple contract details.


Honestly, that was my guess….   I’m curious what happens when you crunch the numbers and the math changes.  
 

Again, many thanks!    :thmup:

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Taylor and Pittman extensions:(possible contract structures)

 

Taylor:

Current contract - 1yr $2,491,093, dead cap $813,482

 

New contract:(5yr $67.491,093, $28,491,093 guaranteed(23/24 base + $20,813,482 SB)

2023 - $1,677,611 base, $4,813,482 SB - $6,491,093 cap hit

2024 - $6,000,000 base, $4,000,000 SB - $10,000,000 cap hit

2025 - $10,000,000 base, $4,000,000 SB - $14,000,000 cap hit 

2026 - $13,000,000, $4,000,000 SB - $17,000,000 cap hit - $8,000,000 dead cap

2027 - $16,000,000, $4,000,000 SB - $20,000,000 cap hit

 

New money: 4yr $65m 

 

 

 

Pittman:

Current contract - 1yr $2,740,452, dead cap $955,973

 

New Contract:(5yr $85,740,479, $45,740,452 guaranteed(23/24 base + $30,955,973 SB)

2023 - $1,784,479 base, $6,955,973 SB - $8,740,452 total Cap hit

2024 - $7,000,000 base, $6,000,000 SB - $13m cap hit

2025 - $12,000,000 base, $6,000,000 SB - $18,000,000 cap hit

2026 - $18,000,000, $6,000,000 SB - $24,000,000 cap hit - $12,000,000 dead cap

2027 - $17,000,000, $6,000,000 SB - $23,000,000

 

New money: 4yr $83m

 

 

2023 Cap Ramifications:

Taylor current cap hit:$2,491,093

Taylor new cap hit:$6,491,093

 

-$4m

 

Pittman current cap hit:$2,740,452

Pittman new cap hit:$8,740,452

 

-$6m

 

So if we were setting at around $33m where I left off, we would be setting at $23m after these extensions.

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11 hours ago, Matabix said:

I would for the work you put in it alone.

Well there are a lot of posters that put a lot of work in that doesn't get pinned.

 

I do feel though, like this is something that has been coming up often in many threads. So would be a good to get it all in one place and keep it pinned till off-season.

 

11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Love the data... Nice!

 

But... given the current mess, changes, and chaos... The dust needs to settle before I jump into 2023 roster stuff. 

Yeah, I am still fully emersed in this season. Just posted some of this info in different threads. Bring it to one and add to it.

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14 minutes ago, w87r said:

Yeah, I am still fully emersed in this season. Just posted some of this info in different threads. Bring it to one and add to it.

 

Lol yup... I'm saturated with chaos... 

Regardless, I know what my gut says about the roster based on what I already know (contracts, performance).

Not sure what will change given the current shuffles/changes.

Need to see 2-4 weeks of Jeff/Indy at least, to re-think anything (overall roster)... 

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  • w87r pinned this topic

Other potential moves to clear cap space.

 

Think I have us setting at $23m after re-signs.

 

 

Braden Smith Restructure:

Current contract: 

3yr $55,433,000, $19,000,000 guaranteed

2023 cap hit - $19,000,000

2024 cap hit - $16,683,000

2025 cap hit - $19,750,000

 

$16m - $1.2m = 14.8m ÷ 3 = $4,933,333

 

New restructure:

2023 cap hit - $1,200,000 base, $7,933,333 Restruc Bonus/SB - $9,133,333 new cap hit. $9,867,667 in 2023 cap savings

2024 cap hit - $11,683,000 base, $2,000,000 Roster Bonus/SB, $7,933,333 Restruc Bonus - $21,616,333 new cap hit

2025 cap hit - $14,750,000 base, $2,000,000 Roster Bonus/SB, $7,933,334 Restruc Bonus - $24,683,334 - new cap hit. $7,933,334 dead cap

 

This move would save Colts an additional $9,133,333 in cap space this season.

 

Not saying we should do this, just presenting an option.

 

 

 

Grover Stewart extension:

Current contract:

1yr

2023 - $9,035,000 base, $1,250,000 SB, $340,000 Roster Bonus - $10,625,000 total Cap hit

 

$9,035,000 - $1,200,000 = $7,765,000 ÷ 3 = $2,588,333

 

New 3 year extension:

2023 - $1,200,000 base, $340,000 Roster Bonus, $3,838,333 Restruc Bonus/SB - $5,378,333 new cap hit - $5,246,667 in 2023 cap savings

2024 - $10,000,000 base , $2,588,333 Restruc Bonus - $12,588,333 cap hit

2025 - $11,000,000 base, $2,588,334 Restruc Bonus - $13,588,334 cap hit

 

3yr $31,555,000, $20,555,000 guaranteed (2023/24 base, Roster + Restruc Bonus/SB)

 

Saves $5,246,667 in 2023 cap space

 

 

There is 2 more moves that could save the Colts:

 

$16,380,000 in 2023 cap space if the team so wishes.

 

Would put us back around $40m to spend in FA after re-signings, draft pool allocated. 

 

 

****All these extensions/restructure contracts.are.just numbers I have put together, nothing official.

 

I think the numbers would be pretty close though if they happened.

 

Same with Buckner extension from earlier in thread.

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Well 87, that’s quite a bit to respond to. It’s clear that you have done some extensive research and it is much appreciated. I believe good work like you have provided deserves an intuitive response, which will undoubtedly lead to a lot of discussions. One of the challenges about having this discussion now is that we are getting ready to play week 10. The Colts are 3-5-1. We are currently sitting in position to grab the 14th overall pick. The Colts still have 8 games left, and the first 9 games proved (as half a season tends to do), that a lot can happen in half a season. Taking a stab at this now, requires a lot of projections that quite frankly could go several ways… I will give my mid-season thoughts about some upcoming Colts who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents. 

 

Most likely to be resigned

 

I believe Bobby Okereke is having his best season, and it happens to be in a contract year. There is no evidence to say the two things are necessarily tied together, but we must be careful with these things. You predicted a 3-year 18-million-dollar deal. I think that is a fair deal, and it favors the Colts. 

 

Unfortunately, Tyquan Lewis has suffered back-to-back season ending injuries. In both games, he was playing his tail off too. He is an asset for the Colts when he is available. You are predicting a 1-year deal for 3 million. That sounds fair to me, and I believe that favors the Colts. 

 

Assuming we keep the band together or stay with this defensive philosophy, EJ Speed has found a place on this roster, and he fits this defense. It would not surprise me if he were one of Cato June’s favorite players on this roster. I am not sure what happens with Leonard next year, but you are predicting that we could sign Speed on a 10-million-dollar deal for 3 years. To put this into perspective, this means we would get Speed for 3 years, what it costs to pay Leonard for half a season. I would hope for the Colts to take that deal. 

 

Chase McLaughlin has brought some stability to our kicking game. I am less worried about him missing than I ever was about his predecessor. I felt like Blankenship could miss everything he kicked. I don’t think he believed he was going to make anything either. Chase is by no means “money” in this game, but the level of confidence… It is not even close. Your proposal of a one-year deal for a couple of million… The Colts would be wise to take that deal. 

 

I have watched Tony Brown play many games, going all the way back to his college days. I thought he would be a late round pick, but he went undrafted. He was not as highly touted as other well-known corners from Alabama. I have long-thought there is something there to develop, but the clock is ticking… Your proposal of a 1-year deal for a million; it fits. 


Could be resigned – Might test the market first

 

I view Yannick Ngakoue as a journeyman. He is 27 years old, and he has already played for 5 different teams. How many teams will he play for? There might be a place for him on this team. But at what price? When he is on, he can rush the passer at a very high level. These kinds of players tend to get overpaid, because of what they’re capable of. 

 

Rodney McLeod has been a good presence on this team, but he is 32 years old. And without knowing where this coaching staff is going… we are in midseason and about to play our first game with Jeff Saturday as the head coach. That doesn’t paint a bright picture for his future on this team. He can still play though. 


I think everyone is happy to see Parris Campbell on the field. Assuming he stays healthy the entire year, can we offer a second contract to a player who has had three of his four seasons end early due to injury? That is a tough one. Because I like him and appreciate him overcoming all that adversity. But this is not just a contract. It is a roster spot, and more importantly reps in training camp. Barring some spectacular performance from him the rest of the way, I am 50/50 on this one. 

 

I appreciate a guy like Ifeadi Odenigbo, who has bounced all over the league, and fought to stay employed. He has been cut more times than Peyton Manning chants “Cut That Meat” at a local sandwich shop. Your proposal of a million for a year… We could spend that money in a lot worse ways. I could see a deal like this. It is plausible. 


Less chance of returning in 2023

 

Dennis Kelly
Brandon Facyson
Ashton Dulin 
Ben Banogu
Armani Watts
Byron Cowart

 

I never want to see them in Colts gear again

 

Matt Hauck is the worst NFL punter I have ever seen. He is to punters what Mike Cofer was to kickers. 

 

I think Matt Pryor has peaked, and it is not good enough to play in this league. 
 

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46 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

One of the challenges about having this discussion now is that we are getting ready to play week 10. The Colts are 3-5-1. We are currently sitting in position to grab the 14th overall pick. The Colts still have 8 games left, and the first 9 games proved (as half a season tends to do), that a lot can happen in half a season. Taking a stab at this now, requires a lot of projections that quite frankly could go several ways…

Yeah, that is why I was a little apprehensive about doing it now and wanted to wait.

 

However I have just seen to many post around the forum alluding to untruths about our cap situation. Posted a few of these in random threads, figured it was time to put them together and add more context to them.

 

Also, at this point I think a lot of decisions can be made just by how things are playing out. Examples below.

 

Who we sign or don't sign really isn't relevant to the thread, I just put some numbers together to get a rough figure we might have come FA time. A little bit extra.

 

Really is was more about, what money we can save, how much, where and how. (Cuts, trades, extension, restructure)

 

51 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

I believe Bobby Okereke is having his best season, and it happens to be in a contract year. There is no evidence to say the two things are necessarily tied together, but we must be careful with these things. You predicted a 3-year 18-million-dollar deal. I think that is a fair deal, and it favors the Colts

Oke definitely is, don't think there is any correlation with contract year.

 

Yeah I also mentioned we might need to go higher to retain him. Could go in the $8-$10m AAV range potentially.

 

53 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

Assuming we keep the band together or stay with this defensive philosophy, EJ Speed has found a place on this roster, and he fits this defense. It would not surprise me if he were one of Cato June’s favorite players on this roster. I am not sure what happens with Leonard next year, but you are predicting that we could sign Speed on a 10-million-dollar deal for 3 years. To put this into perspective, this means we would get Speed for 3 years, what it costs to pay Leonard for half a season. I would hope for the Colts to take that deal. 

Want to kind of put Oke and Speed here together as one of those examples mentioned above. With Leonard's current situation it kind forces us to keep both as insurance on him.

 

This deal for Speed is pretty much the same deal that Franklin signed last year. Think it is solid for both sides 

 

55 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

Unfortunately, Tyquan Lewis has suffered back-to-back season ending injuries. In both games, he was playing his tail off too. He is an asset for the Colts when he is available. You are predicting a 1-year deal for 3 million. That sounds fair to me, and I believe that favors the Colts. 

This is the exact same deal he signed this year coming off injury. I don't think it favors the Colts any more than it favors Lewis. Solid realistic estimate for both side. Definitely is nice to have. 

 

58 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

Chase McLaughlin has brought some stability to our kicking game. I am less worried about him missing than I ever was about his predecessor. I felt like Blankenship could miss everything he kicked. I don’t think he believed he was going to make anything either. Chase is by no means “money” in this game, but the level of confidence… It is not even close. Your proposal of a one-year deal for a couple of million… The Colts would be wise to take that deal. 

Colts very well could look elsewhere. Not sure what they will find, but I agree, I have more confidence now in our kicking game. Solid deal for both I think.

59 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

I have watched Tony Brown play many games, going all the way back to his college days. I thought he would be a late round pick, but he went undrafted. He was not as highly touted as other well-known corners from Alabama. I have long-thought there is something there to develop, but the clock is ticking… Your proposal of a 1-year deal for a million; it fits. 

Yeah, it's just a league minimum offer, think it fits well.

 

Have to earn a spot in camp.

 

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

I view Yannick Ngakoue as a journeyman. He is 27 years old, and he has already played for 5 different teams. How many teams will he play for? There might be a place for him on this team. But at what price? When he is on, he can rush the passer at a very high level. These kinds of players tend to get overpaid, because of what they’re capable of. 

Yeah, I am still on the fence here as well.

 

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

Rodney McLeod has been a good presence on this team, but he is 32 years old. And without knowing where this coaching staff is going… we are in midseason and about to play our first game with Jeff Saturday as the head coach. That doesn’t paint a bright picture for his future on this team. He can still play though. 

Veteran leadership is important and he has been out best Safety by far.

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

I think everyone is happy to see Parris Campbell on the field. Assuming he stays healthy the entire year, can we offer a second contract to a player who has had three of his four seasons end early due to injury? That is a tough one. Because I like him and appreciate him overcoming all that adversity. But this is not just a contract. It is a roster spot, and more importantly reps in training camp. Barring some spectacular performance from him the rest of the way, I am 50/50 on this one. 

I'm not even sure Campbell wants to come back. He definitely would have to stay healthy and continue his production.

 

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

I appreciate a guy like Ifeadi Odenigbo, who has bounced all over the league, and fought to stay employed. He has been cut more times than Peyton Manning chants “Cut That Meat” at a local sandwich shop. Your proposal of a million for a year… We could spend that money in a lot worse ways. I could see a deal like this. It is plausible

Yeah, when it got down to it we were thin at DE, so bringing him back for cheap makes sense.

 

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

Less chance of returning in 2023

 

Dennis Kelly
Brandon Facyson
Ashton Dulin 
Ben Banogu
Armani Watts
Byron Cowart

Dulin and Banogu are actually playing at a higher rating than most in our team at their positions.

 

 

Put aside all the "potential signings", like I said this was more a practice on showing how much cap space we could get this off-season. Just threw some money towards re-signings to get better number for open FA.

 

So if we don't sign some I listed, that will just mean more cap space for us.

 

Also to show how we can get out of our big contracts that has a lot worried about it.

 

1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

I never want to see them in Colts gear again

 

Matt Hauck is the worst NFL punter I have ever seen. He is to punters what Mike Cofer was to kickers. 

 

I think Matt Pryor has peaked, and it is not good enough to play in this league. 
 

Schitts Creek Yes GIF by CBC

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Excellent - detailed post - thanks for sharing!!

 

There's a LOT of time until the middle of March 2023 and the new NFL league year.

 

We shall see what we shall see as far as player signings - extensions - and - releases.

 

Chris Ballard and his staff are geniuses at managing our salary cap.

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This is what I'm thinking in the most not specific contract way:

 

Resign:

Ashton Dulin 

Dennis Kelly

Parris Campbell

Ifeadi Odenigbo

Chase McLaughlin

Bobby Okereke

Chris Williams - ERFA

Byron Cowart

EJ Speed

Deon Jackson - ERFA

 

Cut:

Matt Ryan - cut + save $17m in cap space

 

Trade: Kenny Moore (Move Rodgers to nickel role)

 

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Good post! Offhand thoughts by me which will change as the season goes on no doubt:

 

- Cut Gilmore
- Cut Kelly
- Cut Cox (what a stupid signing that was)

- Restructure Buckner

 

Cutting Ryan takes a huge dead cap hit and IMO is not necessarily so likely. 

 

Haven't read through all the rest, wow, what a great resource of info though, well done.

 

Have you ever played a game called Front Office Football? It's a game that's all about being a GM and cap space management and drafting players. I got big into it for awhile, despite its flaws. Give you a better appreciation for how hard it is.

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11 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Have you ever played a game called Front Office Football? It's a game that's all about being a GM and cap space management and drafting players. I got big into it for awhile, despite its flaws. Give you a better appreciation for how hard it i

Nah, I have just done a lot of cap work over the years for different reasons. Pretty well versed I think.

 

15 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Cutting Ryan takes a huge dead cap hit and IMO is not necessarily so likely. 

If Ryan leads us to playoffs he might be back.

 

Dead Cap is one thing.

 

Bottom line is we save $17m against the cap by releasing him. Dead cap doesn't mean to much in that instance. That is a lot of savings.

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50 minutes ago, w87r said:

Nah, I have just done a lot of cap work over the years for different reasons. Pretty well versed I think.

If you think you might be into something like that I'd give it a try. 

 

Quote

 

If Ryan leads us to playoffs he might be back.

 

Dead Cap is one thing.

 

Bottom line is we save $17m against the cap by releasing him. Dead cap doesn't mean to much in that instance. That is a lot of savings.

 

Yeah let's see how he does the rest of the year.

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9 minutes ago, jonjon said:

If you think you might be into something like that I'd give it a try. 

Probably not. Just to busy to game.

 

I bought a PS5 strictly to play Madden for a couple weeks when it came out. Haven't touched it since like like week 1.

 

Probably going to give it to my nephew for his birthday this week. Lol.

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