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2023 Colts Salary Cap Situation/ Discussion


w87r

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On 3/2/2023 at 12:10 AM, Moosejawcolt said:

Nelson has absolutely no trade  value 

Yeah, all pro players are a dime a dozen.   I bet you think Leonard has no trade value either.   You have been wrong so much,   Credibility really isn't your thing

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I was a bit surprised when we traded Gillmore to free up some cap room, and didnt give Parris Campbell a (1) year flyer with 1/3 of it......I kind of assumed that freeing up that cash was to retain a guy or two with one year flyer offers.....its not that I thought Campbell was the be all end all but with our other needs on the team, I didn't see the logic in creating yet another need........I dunno, I haven't been locked in as tight this off season as I have in past off seasons so maybe I am missing something in the bigger scheme. 

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13 hours ago, ChuggaBeer said:

According to spotrac. $21,297,990 cap space  for the top 51. The estimate that about 10 for draft picks  so that would drop us to 11 mm. if I am reading this correctly 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/cap/

Maybe we can still find some quality additions from the following:

 

SS Taylor Rapp (Rams)

RB Marlon Mack (Broncos)

IDL Matt Ioannidis (Panthers)

IDL Daniel Ekuale (Patriots)

DE Al-Quadin Muhammad (Bears)

WR Dante Pettis (Bears)

WR Isaiah McKenzie (Bills)

WR KhaDarel Hodge (Falcons)

WR Brandon Powell (Rams)

WR Laquon Treadwell (Seahawks)

LCB Rock Ya-Sin (Raiders)

CB Tre Flowers (Bengals) depth

CB Joejuan Williams (Patriots) 

CB Sidney Jones (Raiders)

RT/G Bobby Hart (Bills) bu

RT Brandon Shell (Dolphins) bu+

LG Elijah Wilkinson (Falcons) bu+

 

 

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4 hours ago, Rhodelesstraveled said:

Nelson and Leonard will harm this team for years to come and most of you still don't see it.  I'd trade Nelson now to anyone to draft an OT in this draft.  


Buying high and selling low is rarely good for business.    Especially since you don’t know of the impact to the salary cap. 
 

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On 4/25/2023 at 8:25 PM, NewColtsFan said:


Buying high and selling low is rarely good for business.    Especially since you don’t know of the impact to the salary cap. 
 

Those contracts are easy to compensate for with a QB on rookie deal.

 

 

Colts are setting around $24m in cap space.

 

About $6,754,282 more in draft picks, so around $17m left.

$9,574,282 - picks to sign cap hits 

- $3,720,000 - players drop below top 51

 

 

On the fence on whether or not we will see extensions for Taylor and Pittman? Could see it go either way. Taylor kinda makes sense to let the year play out and go from there. Either re-sign after season, or place Tag on him if unable to come to a deal 

 

 

Always been a little skeptical of the potential cost on Pittman, and with the direction of the offense, I find myself questioning if he fits in going forward. Being a big target could help with accuracy concerns though.

 

Either way we have the money to extend both if we choose to.

 

 

Moving forward the cap is going to continue to rise and these big cap hits won't seem as bad.

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Something else, we still can clear some cap space if we wanted.

 

Cox - $2.92m savings on release, $5.3m if find a trade partner.

 

 

 

 

@NewColtsFanalso to your point on Nelson trade. Clearly poster had no clue of ramifications on trading Nelson prior to, or during draft. It would of cost us $12.6m more($24.8m) than his 2023 cap hit($12.2m) to do that.

 

To even suggest it, shows they didn't know what they were talking about. Perfect response by you. 

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2 minutes ago, w87r said:

Something else, we still can clear some cap space if we wanted.

 

Cox - $2.92m savings on release, $5.3m if find a trade partner.

 

 

 

 

@NewColtsFanalso to your point on Nelson trade. Clearly poster had no clue of ramifications on trading Nelson prior to, or during draft. It would of cost us $12.6m more($24.8m) than his 2023 cap hit($12.2m) to do that.

 

To even suggest it, shows they didn't know what they were talking about. Perfect response by you. 

Read a recent article, I don’t remember where, that said Cox’s spot on the roster is safe because of his blocking ability.  It predicted Granson as the likely cut.

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3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Read a recent article, I don’t remember where, that said Cox’s spot on the roster is safe because of his blocking ability.  It predicted Granson as the likely cut.

I can see it.

 

Cap isn't really an issue for us at the moment. Early in off-season it was though 

 

Just meant to include that in initial post so did a little follow up.

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19 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Read a recent article, I don’t remember where, that said Cox’s spot on the roster is safe because of his blocking ability.  It predicted Granson as the likely cut.


I don’t see Granson getting cut.   Traded is far more likely.   If you look at his stats, over 50 percent of his receptions are for first downs.  The kid moves the chains.  
 

As for Cox, he has graded well in blocking  in the past, but didn’t last year.  He was very poor.   And the team signed Brown who should be at least as good if not better for a fraction of the cost.   So I think Cox is very much on notice, especially with the potential salary cap savings.  
 

If the Colts decide to trade Granson, I can think of one team in Carolina where their new HC is reportedly a big fan….   

 

 

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3 hours ago, w87r said:

Those contracts are easy to compensate for with a QB on rookie deal.

 

 

Colts are setting around $24m in cap space.

 

About $6,754,282 more in draft picks, so around $17m left.

$9,574,282 - picks to sign cap hits 

- $3,720,000 - players drop below top 51

 

 

On the fence on whether or not we will see extensions for Taylor and Pittman? Could see it go either way. Taylor kinda makes sense to let the year play out and go from there. Either re-sign after season, or place Tag on him if unable to come to a deal 

 

 

Always been a little skeptical of the potential cost on Pittman, and with the direction of the offense, I find myself questioning if he fits in going forward. Being a big target could help with accuracy concerns though.

 

Either way we have the money to extend both if we choose to.

 

 

Moving forward the cap is going to continue to rise and these big cap hits won't seem as bad.


Yes to all.   I can see the Colts playing hardball with both Pitt and Taylor in ways they haven’t before.   I used to think Pitt might get 4/72.    Now I can see an offer of 3/50.   But I think you’re right that Steichen might want to see what Pitt looks like in his offense over a season.    As for Taylor,  my recent reading is that an offer of 3/40 is likely.   So maybe the franchise offers 3/36 to see if there’s any interest?   As always, the guarantees will likely make the difference.  
 

Many fans here were so unhappy with the Nelson signing (4/80) that they didn’t even notice that Atlanta made Chris Lindstrom the highest paid guard a year later (5/102.5).  And I think that shows the Colts likely played hardball with Nelson by only going to 4 years and not 5.   
 

So perhaps there’s been a subtle shift in our approach?   The next few months with Pitt and JT will say more.  
 

On a more personal note, seeing you post here again has made my day!   The website is infinitely better when you’re here!!     :thmup:       :worthy:

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28 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

On a more personal note, seeing you post here again has made my day!   The website is infinitely better when you’re here!!     :thmup:       :worthy:

Appreciate ya. Needed some time away, tbh I wasn't sure if I was going to come back, but decided today was the day. Here I am, some might not be so happy, but to each their own 

 

Happy to be back and glad you're still going strong, figured if anyone missed me around here it would be you. You're definitely one of the posters that I have been wondering how you were doing during my absence.

 

28 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Many fans here were so unhappy with the Nelson signing (4/80) that they didn’t even notice that Atlanta made Chris Lindstrom the highest paid guard a year later (5/105).  And I think that shows the Colts likely played hardball with Nelson by only going to 4 years and not 5.   

Yep, and each year that passes after this one makes it easier to get out of contract if need be. I don't anticipate that being an issue.

 

I love our new coaching staff.

 

Sparano will do a great job getting the line back in order.

Cam Turner another solid addition. 

 

 

 

As far as the RB market, I feel that it is self correcting itself. Coming back to earth, in other words.

 

3yr $40m seems like a decent middle ground? Franchise was $10m this year and should be right around there next season. Like you said, guarantees are what matters the most. 

 

Pittman, like I said, I'm just not sure he is going to fit the new offense very well?

 

I feel we are going to be trying to push the ball down the field. Outside and inside, to open up run lanes for Taylor and Richardson. We still need that possession guy, which Pittman can succeed with, but how much is it worth? Downs can be that guy too.

 

 

Time will tell. 

 

Just happy to be back where I can talk some Colts with knowledgeable posters.

 

 

 

**EDIT 3yr $50m for Pittman seems plausible as well.

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NFL's highest paid running backs in 2023 (average salary per year):

1. 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: $16 million

2. Saints RB Alvin Kamara: $15 million

3. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook: $12.6 million

4. Titans RB Derrick Henry: $12.5 million

5. Browns RB Nick Chubb: $12.2 million

6. Bengals QB Joe Mixon: $12 million

7. Packers RB Aaron Jones: $11.5 million

8. Cowboys RB Tony Pollard: $10.1 million

8. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs: $10.1 million

8. Giants RB Saquon Barkley $10.1 million

 

This is what I mean by correcting itself.

 

Ezekiel Elliot release - had like $18m cap hit or something in that neighborhood

Cook, still might be released

Kamara has his own issues 

 

Guys are struggling to get over that $12m mark right now.

 

2024 Top RB cap hits:(before cuts and restructures)

Kamara - $18,887,000 - pending legal issues should make this not stick 

Jones - $17,717,000 - decent chance he stays at this number as GB put 3 void years at end of deal, but can still clear $5m if need be. Plus have Love in cheap deal.

Chubb - $16,200,000 - last year of deal, so will sign extension and lower this figure

Cook - $15,601,272 - already being discussed as being.released this year, slim chance this rides

McCaffrey - $14,144,000 - solid number for CMC

Mixon - $13,133,205 - don't see anyway Mixon sees this.

 

Then big drop:

Conner - $8,490,000

 

 

Saying all that, I think the tag will be at that $10m or maybe even a little under.

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On 5/20/2023 at 5:18 PM, w87r said:

This is what I mean by correcting itself.

 

Ezekiel Elliot release - had like $18m cap hit or something in that neighborhood

Cook, still might be released

Kamara has his own issues 

 

Guys are struggling to get over that $12m mark right now.

 

2024 Top RB cap hits:(before cuts and restructures)

Kamara - $18,887,000 - pending legal issues should make this not stick 

Jones - $17,717,000 - decent chance he stays at this number as GB put 3 void years at end of deal, but can still clear $5m if need be. Plus have Love in cheap deal.

Chubb - $16,200,000 - last year of deal, so will sign extension and lower this figure

Cook - $15,601,272 - already being discussed as being.released this year, slim chance this rides

McCaffrey - $14,144,000 - solid number for CMC

Mixon - $13,133,205 - don't see anyway Mixon sees this.

 

Then big drop:

Conner - $8,490,000

 

 

Saying all that, I think the tag will be at that $10m or maybe even a little under.

 

The non-exclusive tag is what we'd most likely use on Taylor, and it's complicated. Essentially it's an aggregate result of previous years' tags vs previous years' salary caps. Everyone talks about the exclusive tag amount, but that tag is rarely used. OTC has a projection for next year's tag amounts, and they predict the RB tag will be $13.7m. (My understanding is that this formula makes the tag amounts less subject to some of the possibilities you present in this previous post -- if Kamara's contract goes away, if Cook gets released or renegotiates, if other players restructure, etc.)

 

The $13.7m figure for non-exclusive RB tag in 2024 seems aggressive, but I'm not going to do that math. For the sake of the argument, if we use that figure, and then 120% in 2025 ($16.44m), we're looking at a total of $30.14m over two years. If Taylor has a strong 2023, then I think that makes his contract negotiation starting point $15m/year. If he's excellent in 2023, then he's probably looking to set the new mark at $19m/year. Just thinking from the angle of a typical player agent. 

 

I think either of those figures is a non starter for the Colts (even if OTC is aggressive, we're still looking at $12-13m/year, and that's still too high for a RB, right?) Just strategically speaking, the only way to keep him is if he takes a reasonable but below market deal, or you just tag him for up to two years, knowing you're willing to let him walk by 2026. And I say this as someone who loves basically everything about JT and how he plays, but you can't make a major commitment to a RB in today's NFL. I don't know if the Colts agree, but it seems well established.

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The non-exclusive tag is what we'd most likely use on Taylor, and it's complicated. Essentially it's an aggregate result of previous years' tags vs previous years' salary caps. Everyone talks about the exclusive tag amount, but that tag is rarely used. OTC has a projection for next year's tag amounts, and they predict the RB tag will be $13.7m. (My understanding is that this formula makes the tag amounts less subject to some of the possibilities you present in this previous post -- if Kamara's contract goes away, if Cook gets released or renegotiates, if other players restructure, etc.)

 

The $13.7m figure for non-exclusive RB tag in 2024 seems aggressive, but I'm not going to do that math. For the sake of the argument, if we use that figure, and then 120% in 2025 ($16.44m), we're looking at a total of $30.14m over two years. If Taylor has a strong 2023, then I think that makes his contract negotiation starting point $15m/year. If he's excellent in 2023, then he's probably looking to set the new mark at $19m/year. Just thinking from the angle of a typical player agent. 

 

I think either of those figures is a non starter for the Colts (even if OTC is aggressive, we're still looking at $12-13m/year, and that's still too high for a RB, right?) Just strategically speaking, the only way to keep him is if he takes a reasonable but below market deal, or you just tag him for up to two years, knowing you're willing to let him walk by 2026. And I say this as someone who loves basically everything about JT and how he plays, but you can't make a major commitment to a RB in today's NFL. I don't know if the Colts agree, but it seems well established.

Yeah, that's what seems to make the most sense to me.

 

Either he signs a team friendly $10-$12m deal for 3-4 years, or he plays out his $5m this year and gets tagged.

 

As far as the bolded, I've always been of the mindset that those numbers go up and down with restructures/ releases prior to the figure being locked in.

 

Was looking for some verbiage, haven't found what I'm looking for yet. Will keep looking 

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5 minutes ago, w87r said:

Yeah, that's what seems to make the most sense to me.

 

Either he signs a team friendly $10-$12m deal for 3-4 years, or he plays out his $5m this year and gets tagged.

 

As far as the bolded, I've always been of the mindset that those numbers go up and down with restructures/ releases prior to the figure being locked in.

 

Was looking for some verbiage, haven't found what I'm looking for yet. Will keep looking 

 

The exclusive tag is based on specific contracts at the top of the market, but the non-exclusive is a more complicated formula. And outside of a handful of exceptions, teams use the non-exclusive tag. Coincidentally, one of the non-QBs to get the exclusive tag was Le'Veon Bell. Best source is the CBA itself, other reporting tends to be incomplete or inaccurate.

 

As for JT, if he wanted four years, $40m, I might do that right now, $20m guaranteed, and it would expire after 2026. That would be team friendly, and would allow us to push out some of the cap hits. But I think the market for a top RB, mathematically speaking, is going to be higher than that, just based on the tag amounts and existing contracts.

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11 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The exclusive tag is based on specific contracts at the top of the market, but the non-exclusive is a more complicated formula. And outside of a handful of exceptions, teams use the non-exclusive tag. Coincidentally, one of the non-QBs to get the exclusive tag was Le'Veon Bell. Best source is the CBA itself, other reporting tends to be incomplete or inaccurate.

 

As for JT, if he wanted four years, $40m, I might do that right now, $20m guaranteed, and it would expire after 2026. That would be team friendly, and would allow us to push out some of the cap hits. But I think the market for a top RB, mathematically speaking, is going to be higher than that, just based on the tag amounts and existing contracts.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-lamar-jackson-tops-nine-franchise-tag-candidates-for-2023-projected-tag-salary-at-each-position/

 

Quote

The 2023 exclusive quarterback franchise tag currently projects to $45.248 million. This number is subject to change depending on new quarterback deals, contract restructures, pay cuts and/or releases between now and then.

 

 

Here's that verbiage.

 

That franchise tag dropped down $13m from December (article wrote) till finalization.

 

 

Think it's absolute though as we seem to be talking about 2 different things. Exclusive/Non Exclusive.

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52 minutes ago, w87r said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-lamar-jackson-tops-nine-franchise-tag-candidates-for-2023-projected-tag-salary-at-each-position/

 

 

 

Here's that verbiage.

 

That franchise tag dropped down $13m from December (article wrote) till finalization.

 

 

Think it's absolute though as we seem to be talking about 2 different things. Exclusive/Non Exclusive.

 

The reason the amount was less by $13m is because Lamar got the non-exclusive tag, so the amount was $32m, not $45m. The exclusive tag amount would have been subject to change, but I don't think any top five QB contracts were adjusted between December and March.

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21 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The reason the amount was less by $13m is because Lamar got the non-exclusive tag, so the amount was $32m, not $45m. The exclusive tag amount would have been subject to change, but I don't think any top five QB contracts were adjusted between December and March.

Yeah, I was misreading that chart when I initially looked at it, thinking first number was exclusive and 2nd was non ex. Instead of, non exclusive/ transition.

 

Can't find where exclusive actually fell, but it wasn't placed on any QB this year.

 

To that point, for QB that are going to restructure, it doesn't really make sense for current team to restructure prior to deadline as it makes the tag cheaper for other teams.

 

Now when it comes to RBs, who will likely be released(some maybe even this season), like we were discussing earlier. More likely to happen than a team that is keeping a player.

 

Good catch though, had me stumped for a second.

 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/2023-tag-values-candidates-1768/


 

Quote

 

Exclusive Franchise Tag, currently estimated to account for $45.2M in 2023. This number comes with a few conditions. 1) Since the actual official exclusive tenders won't lock until April, the Ravens will be able to account for the non-exclusive price ($32.4M) until that happens. 2) Many of the top QB cap hits are going to be restructured (or released) in the coming weeks, largely changing the end result for this exclusive pricepoint. 

 

 

 

Just kinda using QBs as the example since it's been easier to find the verbiage I was looking for.

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2 minutes ago, w87r said:

Now when it comes to RBs, who will likely be released(some maybe even this season), like we were discussing earlier. More likely to happen than a team that is keeping a player.

 

I think this is a somewhat unique data point. If you're a RB or agent representing one, you look at the highest paid RBs of all time, and 2-3 of those contracts are null, or will be soon. It's not strange that a contract gets terminated or restructured, but it is unique that a top of market contract isn't replaced by another one of similar value. Ezekiel Elliott signed four years ago, Kamara and Cook signed three years ago; taking those contracts off the board craters the average. We don't even remember Le'Veon Bell or Todd Gurley at this point.

 

It really highlights the trends at play here. RBs rarely get big second contracts, they certainly don't see the end of those second contracts, and teams aren't paying premium money for this position overall. 

 

And it's not as simple as 'RB isn't important,' and it's certainly not true that RBs aren't good. They're among the very best athletes on any given roster, pound for pound speed is elite, they get more touches than any other non-QB, they play a huge part in helping teams win games. RB is still important. The question is whether it's cost effective to pay premium money for a RB, even one with premium production, if a slightly above average RB can be acquired for 1/8th the cost, and give you 70-80% of the production.

 

And that's before we even talk about the rapid and often drastic decline with RBs. Le'Veon Bell was released one month into his second season with the Jets. Todd Gurley lasted two seasons on his second contract, and he signed an early extension. A big second contract for a RB is basically a money sink. 

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40 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think this is a somewhat unique data point. If you're a RB or agent representing one, you look at the highest paid RBs of all time, and 2-3 of those contracts are null, or will be soon. It's not strange that a contract gets terminated or restructured, but it is unique that a top of market contract isn't replaced by another one of similar value. Ezekiel Elliott signed four years ago, Kamara and Cook signed three years ago; taking those contracts off the board craters the average. We don't even remember Le'Veon Bell or Todd Gurley at this point.

 

It really highlights the trends at play here. RBs rarely get big second contracts, they certainly don't see the end of those second contracts, and teams aren't paying premium money for this position overall. 

 

And it's not as simple as 'RB isn't important,' and it's certainly not true that RBs aren't good. They're among the very best athletes on any given roster, pound for pound speed is elite, they get more touches than any other non-QB, they play a huge part in helping teams win games. RB is still important. The question is whether it's cost effective to pay premium money for a RB, even one with premium production, if a slightly above average RB can be acquired for 1/8th the cost, and give you 70-80% of the production.

 

And that's before we even talk about the rapid and often drastic decline with RBs. Le'Veon Bell was released one month into his second season with the Jets. Todd Gurley lasted two seasons on his second contract, and he signed an early extension. A big second contract for a RB is basically a money sink. 

Great post.

 

Something else that plays into these numbers, is that teams have to restructure and move money to future years making them even less likely to see the end.

 

Kamara 5yr - $75m = $15m AAV; 2024 cap hit $18.9m, 2025 cap hit $29m

Jones 4yr - $48m = $12m AAV; 2024 cap hit $17.7m

Chubb 3yr $36m deal = $12m AAV; 2024 cap hit $16.2m

Cook 5yr $63m = $12.6m AAV; 2024 cap hit $15.6m

McCaffrey 4yr $64m = $18.5m AAV; 2024 cap hit $14.1m

***CMC an outlier because of trade - If still with Carolina cap hit would be $21.6m***

 

Zeke - 6yr $90m = $15m AAV

 

 

 

So, to pull this all together. Looking at the contracts signed. (3) $15m AAV or higher, the rest around $12m.

 

I think that, that is the sweet spot, could $13m be sweet spot? Maybe, but as you've stated in your post, the league, players and agents all know this, so I think their is a self correction going on. Where will it end IDK, but everyone knows, 2ne RB contracts rarely workout and pretty much all never see the end of that contract. Just not sustainable, so if players would like to be able to stay until end of deal, it might make sense to set up contract accordingly.

 

It's a money grab in the end though, that usually wins out.

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41 minutes ago, w87r said:

***CMC an outlier because of trade - If still with Carolina cap hit would be $21.6m***

 

Another reason the formula for the non-exclusive tag is different, and both more/less complicated at the same time.

 

I agree with you on most of the rest, regarding the market and trends. But it's hard to see a self correction happening when there hasn't been a big RB contract in 2-3 years. The only data we have is a couple of franchise tags, but maybe that's all we need to see to know what the market thinks.

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51 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Another reason the formula for the non-exclusive tag is different, and both more/less complicated at the same time.

 

I agree with you on most of the rest, regarding the market and trends. But it's hard to see a self correction happening when there hasn't been a big RB contract in 2-3 years. The only data we have is a couple of franchise tags, but maybe that's all we need to see to know what the market thinks.

No doubt, I'm sure Barkley was looking for $15m+ a season.

 

Open market didn't call for it, and the Giants are looking at it like (2) tags or even potentially (3) tags

 

2023 - $10.1m

2024 - $12.12m

2025 - $17.45m

 

2yr $22.22m deal - $11m AAV

Or

3yr $39.67m  deal - $13.23m AAV

 

They have no reason to bend on $15m+ asking price.

 

 

Will be curious to see what comes about with next year's franchise number for RB. Will be in the $11-$13 range probably.

 

Let's role play with $12, and play out the potential for (3) tags for Taylor.

 

2023 - $12m

2024 - $14.4m

2025 - $20.74m

 

2yr on tag - $26.4m - $13.2 AAV

3yr on tag - $47.14m - $15.7m AAV

 

Could rise depending where tag ends up.

 

So on the 2yr tag, including the his season $5.12m salary, we have essentially a:

 

3yr deal - $31.52m contract - $10.5m AAV

 

Even this year with the (3) yr tag with $5.12m for 2023 works out to:

4yr deal - $52.26m - $13.1m AAV

 

So again like Barkley, there really isn't much incentive to give the $15m+ offer.

 

 

Offer him the 4yr $44m deal $24m guaranteed, if he doesn't accept it. Tag it is.

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

No doubt, I'm sure Barkley was looking for $15m+ a season.

 

Open market didn't call for it, and the Giants are looking at it like (2) tags or even potentially (3) tags

 

2023 - $10.1m

2024 - $12.12m

2025 - $17.45m

 

2yr $22.22m deal - $11m AAV

Or

3yr $39.67m  deal - $13.23m AAV

 

They have no reason to bend on $15m+ asking price.

 

 

Will be curious to see what comes about with next year's franchise number for RB. Will be in the $11-$13 range probably.

 

Let's role play with $12, and play out the potential for (3) tags for Taylor.

 

2023 - $12m

2024 - $14.4m

2025 - $20.74m

 

2yr on tag - $26.4m - $13.2 AAV

3yr on tag - $47.14m - $15.7m AAV

 

Could rise depending where tag ends up.

 

So on the 2yr tag, including the his season $5.12m salary, we have essentially a:

 

3yr deal - $31.52m contract - $10.5m AAV

 

Even this year with the (3) yr tag with $5.12m for 2023 works out to:

4yr deal - $52.26m - $13.1m AAV

 

So again like Barkley, there really isn't much incentive to give the $15m+ offer.

 

 

Offer him the 4yr $44m deal $24m guaranteed, if he doesn't accept it. Tag it is.


Really good post.   I had to read it twice to fully absorb all your interesting points, but well worth it..,

 

So….  Thinking out loud….  
 

The tag numbers are based on the top 5 or 10 at your position.   RB salaries appear to be somewhat leveling off. 
 

The tag is under $10.1 this year.   But you’re projecting the next three years for JT at $12, $14.4 and $20.7.   I think the three years are given bumps of 20 percent, 40 percent and 40 percent again  for repeat tagging which is how you arrived at your numbers.   Am I ok so far?  

 

But wouldn’t that suggest the Colts might never do a third tag and might not even do a second tag?   Not sure I see a 4-year offer to JT or anyone else anymore.  The injury risk would just seem way too high.  
 

Again…  Just thinking out loud….  

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15 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


Really good post.   I had to read it twice to fully absorb all your interesting points, but well worth it..,

 

So….  Thinking out loud….  
 

The tag numbers are based on the top 5 or 10 at your position.   RB salaries appear to be somewhat leveling off. 
 

The tag is under $10.1 this year.   But you’re projecting the next three years for JT at $12, $14.4 and $20.7.   I think the three years are given bumps of 20 percent, 40 percent and 40 percent again  for repeat tagging which is how you arrived at your numbers.   Am I ok so far?  

 

But wouldn’t that suggest the Colts might never do a third tag and might not even do a second tag?   Not sure I see a 4-year offer to JT or anyone else anymore.  The injury risk would just seem way too high.  
 

Again…  Just thinking out loud….  

It's 1st tag - just whatever tag is.

2nd tag is 20% more than 1st tag

3rd tag is 44% more than 2nd tag

 

 

I don't know what it is likely for us. Just laying out some possibilities into what you know the front office has looked at.

 

They know, roughly what the cost would be with all these options. So they understand the advantages of each of the options.

 

If it is a 4yr deal, most guaranteed money would be in first 2 years, with easy out in 3rd if need be.

 

Just throwing out $12m for the exercise. Could be lower, could be slight higher.

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