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Anyone have questions on Bradley's Defense?


EastStreet

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10 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I'm doing some digging tonight and tomorrow (on the new DC), and will publish a thread tomorrow. 

 

If you have any specific questions on his D, or past, let me know and I'll try to find you and answer. 

Sure. If he’s so great, why was he available and how is he allegedly an upgrade over Flus? 

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Thanks for that:

 

1 - Is he really willing to adapt? I mean, what's the % of mixing schemes and how much the defense adapt when play a team that is a bad C3 matchup? 

 

2 - Is his DL really creative? % of mixing players on positions, stunts, etc.

 

3 - When he does not get pressure with front 4, Is he willing to blitz? Looking at the percentage of blitizing I'm worried will be more of the same.

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1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Sure. If he’s so great, why was he available and how is he allegedly an upgrade over Flus? 

 

 LMAO  Grandpa said to tell you... your head is in the wrong place!
AND...

 No one has called him "so great". Where do you get this s___?
 You ask why did the new Head Coach bring in his own guy rather than keep the Fired last coaches guy? Hard to figure huh?
 Allegations are a dime a dozen.
 And BTW, You actually have to play the game to see if the product shows signs of improvement.

 So the grown ups will wait and see what next seasons D, with a different roster, looks like. He is inheriting Buckner, Leonard, Moore as the only sure fire quality starters, guys that would start for most anyone.

 So there is no reason to expect miracles in one season.

  

  
  

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4 hours ago, csmopar said:

Sure. If he’s so great, why was he available and how is he allegedly an upgrade over Flus? 

I’m very hesitant on him myself. But I will say that for our situation he was simply available because Las Vegas changed their entire organization at the top, so he was a more of a casualty of the changing of the guard than fired. 

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4 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 LMAO  Grandpa said to tell you... your head is in the wrong place!
AND...

 No one has called him "so great". Where do you get this s___?
 You ask why did the new Head Coach bring in his own guy rather than keep the Fired last coaches guy? Hard to figure huh?
 Allegations are a dime a dozen.
 And BTW, You actually have to play the game to see if the product shows signs of improvement.

 So the grown ups will wait and see what next seasons D, with a different roster, looks like. He is inheriting Buckner, Leonard, Moore as the only sure fire quality starters, guys that would start for most anyone.

 So there is no reason to expect miracles in one season.

  

  
  

I’m not saying he’s gonna be bad. But his track record is rather mixed. There have been some on here and in the media portraying this as a great move.  But I’m not convinced based on his record. 
 

now, obviously you’ve not paid any attention to any of my posts over the last decade or more. I’m solidly in the be patient and see group. I still am. I’d just like to know what separates him from other potential DCs. I had no one in particular in mind when we started, so it’s mere curious it’s. 

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My questions would be:

 

Who is the LEO?  

 

Who is the deep safety??

 

I believe the rest will work itself out...especially if Lewis and Muhammed are re-signed.

 

Just thinking out loud, could Turay or BenB be the LEO?  Turay's fragility makes me doubt it and Ben hasn't exactly set the world on fire...

 

 

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11 hours ago, DiogoSales said:

Thanks for that:

 

1 - Is he really willing to adapt? I mean, what's the % of mixing schemes and how much the defense adapt when play a team that is a bad C3 matchup? 

 

2 - Is his DL really creative? % of mixing players on positions, stunts, etc.

 

3 - When he does not get pressure with front 4, Is he willing to blitz? Looking at the percentage of blitizing I'm worried will be more of the same.

1. Gonna take me longer than thought, but got some %s (on C3) so far, and looking for more. 

I'm sure C3 will still be base, and C1 or 3 on 3rd, but looks like he's playing a bit more split coverage lately like C4 and C6.

 

2 I'll post blitz %, but I think it's fairly clear we'll see a decent amount of 5-2, likely on passing downs. Found a few articles that I need to go through. One is pretty good with all-22 of line ups. 

 

3. His blitz % are low, but his pressure % is much better than Indy's. In short, he gets more bang for the buck. And when he's goine 5 man DL fronts, they don't count that as a blitz, but obviously we're sending 5 instead of our normal 4. There's more on I need to read on the DBs, but we'll see some, but not a lot, of Ss blitzing.

 

Will definitely try to find more on all the Qs folks list. Likely will post tomorrow or Tuesday.

11 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I saw his presser and he spoke a lot about how his scheme has evolved - has it? If so, has it improved?

Gonna do my best to provide stats and % (like Cs and blitz %s) for the last 3-4 years (longer if available) to see how things have varied. 

3 hours ago, LiveAndLetAddai said:

My questions would be:

 

Who is the LEO?  

 

Who is the deep safety??

 

I believe the rest will work itself out...especially if Lewis and Muhammed are re-signed.

 

Just thinking out loud, could Turay or BenB be the LEO?  Turay's fragility makes me doubt it and Ben hasn't exactly set the world on fire...

 

 

More later, but my thoughts so far... 

 

LEO - per the presser and articles, a 6-3ish and 250ish guy. So that leaves Paye, Turay (if resigned), Banogu, or newb.

What's as interesting to me as well is who takes the "Big End" spot. Dayo fits the mold. Lewis perhaps if he's resigned.

 

Deep S - We really don't have one lol.. Wouldn't be shocked if they tried to force fit Blackmon there. He really needs to move to SS though. 

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14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

1. Gonna take me longer than thought, but got some %s (on C3) so far, and looking for more. 

I'm sure C3 will still be base, and C1 or 3 on 3rd, but looks like he's playing a bit more split coverage lately like C4 and C6.

 

2 I'll post blitz %, but I think it's fairly clear we'll see a decent amount of 5-2, likely on passing downs. Found a few articles that I need to go through. One is pretty good with all-22 of line ups. 

 

3. His blitz % are low, but his pressure % is much better than Indy's. In short, he gets more bang for the buck. And when he's goine 5 man DL fronts, they don't count that as a blitz, but obviously we're sending 5 instead of our normal 4. There's more on I need to read on the DBs, but we'll see some, but not a lot, of Ss blitzing.

 

Will definitely try to find more on all the Qs folks list. Likely will post tomorrow or Tuesday.

Gonna do my best to provide stats and % (like Cs and blitz %s) for the last 3-4 years (longer if available) to see how things have varied. 

More later, but my thoughts so far... 

 

LEO - per the presser and articles, a 6-3ish and 250ish guy. So that leaves Paye, Turay (if resigned), Banogu, or newb.

What's as interesting to me as well is who takes the "Big End" spot. Dayo fits the mold. Lewis perhaps if he's resigned.

 

Deep S - We really don't have one lol.. Wouldn't be shocked if they tried to force fit Blackmon there. He really needs to move to SS though. 

Thanks for doing it

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14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

1. Gonna take me longer than thought, but got some %s (on C3) so far, and looking for more. 

I'm sure C3 will still be base, and C1 or 3 on 3rd, but looks like he's playing a bit more split coverage lately like C4 and C6.

 

2 I'll post blitz %, but I think it's fairly clear we'll see a decent amount of 5-2, likely on passing downs. Found a few articles that I need to go through. One is pretty good with all-22 of line ups. 

 

3. His blitz % are low, but his pressure % is much better than Indy's. In short, he gets more bang for the buck. And when he's goine 5 man DL fronts, they don't count that as a blitz, but obviously we're sending 5 instead of our normal 4. There's more on I need to read on the DBs, but we'll see some, but not a lot, of Ss blitzing.

 

Will definitely try to find more on all the Qs folks list. Likely will post tomorrow or Tuesday.

Gonna do my best to provide stats and % (like Cs and blitz %s) for the last 3-4 years (longer if available) to see how things have varied. 

More later, but my thoughts so far... 

 

LEO - per the presser and articles, a 6-3ish and 250ish guy. So that leaves Paye, Turay (if resigned), Banogu, or newb.

What's as interesting to me as well is who takes the "Big End" spot. Dayo fits the mold. Lewis perhaps if he's resigned.

 

Deep S - We really don't have one lol.. Wouldn't be shocked if they tried to force fit Blackmon there. He really needs to move to SS though. 

I am with you on Blackmon moving to SS and there is currently no deep safety on the roster.

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15 hours ago, EastStreet said:

3. His blitz % are low, but his pressure % is much better than Indy's. In short, he gets more bang for the buck. And when he's goine 5 man DL fronts, they don't count that as a blitz, but obviously we're sending 5 instead of our normal 4. There's more on I need to read on the DBs, but we'll see some, but not a lot, of Ss blitzing.

 

You have a reference on that?

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15 hours ago, EastStreet said:

LEO - per the presser and articles, a 6-3ish and 250ish guy. So that leaves Paye, Turay (if resigned), Banogu, or newb.

What's as interesting to me as well is who takes the "Big End" spot. Dayo fits the mold. Lewis perhaps if he's resigned.

I think that's what all the hubbub is about.  Paye has to be the LEO, because we spent a 1st round pick on him, and he doesn't really fit the mold of any of the other spots.  But if Paye can't play the LEO, then it possibly amounts to a wasted pick.  And I don't have to rehash the multitude of arguments about just how many wasted picks people think CB has made.

In short, this could amount to being a Big Thing.  Let's play positive, and hope that he can play the LEO.  (Go Kwity!)

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4 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

I think that's what all the hubbub is about.  Paye has to be the LEO, because we spent a 1st round pick on him, and he doesn't really fit the mold of any of the other spots.  But if Paye can't play the LEO, then it possibly amounts to a wasted pick.  And I don't have to rehash the multitude of arguments about just how many wasted picks people think CB has made.

In short, this could amount to being a Big Thing.  Let's play positive, and hope that he can play the LEO.  (Go Kwity!)

 

Keep in mind Bradley's D has 2 DEs plus LEO. So I wouldn't necessarily say Paye has to be the LEO. 

Wish we had %s from a DL line up perspective, but there's plenty of shots showing 3-man, 4-man, and 5-man fronts. 

Here's a couple with 5-man fronts, with the LEO being the +1 to the normal DE/NT/3T/DE line up.

 leo-pic-1.webp

 

The LEO is left of the Big End below

big-end-under.webp

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5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

You have a reference on that?

 

I'm basing that on the fact that Yannick Ngakoue played a lot of LEO for Bradley (in a variety of alignments), and is credited with zero blitzes for the year. 

 

Here's a snap of a 5 man front with Ngakoue on the line in a stand-up roll as the 5th DL/LEO. 

leo-pic-1.webp

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I'm basing that on the fact that Yannick Ngakoue played a lot of LEO for Bradley (in a variety of alignments), and is credited with zero blitzes for the year. 

 

Here's a snap of a 5 man front with Ngakoue on the line in a stand-up roll as the 5th DL/LEO. 

leo-pic-1.webp

 

Muy interesante. I'd like to see a charting site give some detail about how they count blitzes, but it should be any down where the defense sends more than four rushers. Doesn't matter where they're lined up, more than four = blitz. (But then how do you classify a zone blitz, if a DL drops and a LB rushes? Wouldn't really change the fact that five rushers qualifies as a blitz.)

 

PFF gives Ngakoue 51 LEO snaps, and claims he only played one coverage snap. I think maybe he played that fifth DL position less than people realize. But I also think there's a mix of people not counting blitzes the same. 

 

If something screwy is going on there, and Bradley is sending five DL more than the numbers suggest, then that's a serious reconsideration for me. 

 

Now I have to watch a few Raider games...

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43 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Muy interesante. I'd like to see a charting site give some detail about how they count blitzes, but it should be any down where the defense sends more than four rushers. Doesn't matter where they're lined up, more than four = blitz. (But then how do you classify a zone blitz, if a DL drops and a LB rushes? Wouldn't really change the fact that five rushers qualifies as a blitz.)

 

PFF gives Ngakoue 51 LEO snaps, and claims he only played one coverage snap. I think maybe he played that fifth DL position less than people realize. But I also think there's a mix of people not counting blitzes the same. 

 

If something screwy is going on there, and Bradley is sending five DL more than the numbers suggest, then that's a serious reconsideration for me. 

 

Now I have to watch a few Raider games...

 

lol... To the bolded, that's exactly what I was thinking after reading several articles. 

I'd love to see some charting as well. Typically I'd total DL snap count %s, and see how that compares to 400% (for a 4-3), but given I've read that Bradley shows 3-4 fronts too, not sure how to back in to things. 

 

On the topic of what's counted as a blitz or not, here's a blurb from PFF.

 

There are many ways to define a blitz, but here we're defining it as someone pass rushing that the offense wouldn’t expect to. For example, in a goal-line situation if there are six defensive linemen and they all rush the passer, that wouldn’t count as a blitz. However, in a base 3-4 defense if an ILB pass rushes instead of an OLB, it is a blitz even though it is still potentially just a four-man rush.

 

Overall, I think a blitz has to come from off-line, and has to be from a position we don't associate as a standard pass rusher.

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

Keep in mind Bradley's D has 2 DEs plus LEO. So I wouldn't necessarily say Paye has to be the LEO. 

Wish we had %s from a DL line up perspective, but there's plenty of shots showing 3-man, 4-man, and 5-man fronts. 

Here's a couple with 5-man fronts, with the LEO being the +1 to the normal DE/NT/3T/DE line up.

 leo-pic-1.webp

 

The LEO is left of the Big End below

big-end-under.webp

 

Could it be Okereke?  He's a little smaller though   Possibly Banagu?

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

lol... To the bolded, that's exactly what I was thinking after reading several articles. 

I'd love to see some charting as well. Typically I'd total DL snap count %s, and see how that compares to 400% (for a 4-3), but given I've read that Bradley shows 3-4 fronts too, not sure how to back in to things. 

 

I tried to start that analysis, but couldn't settle on a methodology, and quickly lost interest. But at first glance, I don't think it's possible that they rushed less than five men on all but 82 pass defense snaps last season. And that makes the PFR percentage inaccurate.

 

4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Overall, I think a blitz has to come from off-line, and has to be from a position we don't associate as a standard pass rusher.

 

There are many ways to look at this. I think three DL + two edge rushers is a blitz, even if they're all on the line, and in typical pass rush positions pre-snap. 

 

If blitzes are being defined more narrowly then than, then I don't think we know what Bradley's typical blitz percentage is. But it would explain why his defenses tend to produce pressure a greater rate than the blitz percentage would indicate.

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12 minutes ago, ChuggaBeer said:

 

Could it be Okereke?  He's a little smaller though   Possibly Banagu?

Definitely not Oke. He's been very ineffective when asked to blitz, and struggles shedding blocks. 

Now there is one guy in the LB ranks I could see getting a shot perhaps, and that's Malik Jefferson.  

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7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I tried to start that analysis, but couldn't settle on a methodology, and quickly lost interest. But at first glance, I don't think it's possible that they rushed less than five men on all but 82 pass defense snaps last season. And that makes the PFR percentage inaccurate.

 

 

There are many ways to look at this. I think three DL + two edge rushers is a blitz, even if they're all on the line, and in typical pass rush positions pre-snap. 

 

If blitzes are being defined more narrowly then than, then I don't think we know what Bradley's typical blitz percentage is. But it would explain why his defenses tend to produce pressure a greater rate than the blitz percentage would indicate.

I'll probably still do the math. Purely/simply all DL snap %s vs 400%. The output won't be anything definitive, but I am interested to see how is stacks up to Indy's. Blunt, not surgical. 

 

The bolded was exactly what came to my mind after reading the articles this week, with the previous assumptions of bltiz %s. 

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7 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

I think that's what all the hubbub is about.  Paye has to be the LEO, because we spent a 1st round pick on him, and he doesn't really fit the mold of any of the other spots.  But if Paye can't play the LEO, then it possibly amounts to a wasted pick.  And I don't have to rehash the multitude of arguments about just how many wasted picks people think CB has made.

In short, this could amount to being a Big Thing.  Let's play positive, and hope that he can play the LEO.  (Go Kwity!)

From what I read GB plays a 4-3 version of a 5Tech on most downs.  A dude SqAre to the LOs.  KP is already very good at this type of play.

 

I think they could possibly move Paye inside in pass rushing downs too which would be interesting IMO

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54 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'll probably still do the math. Purely/simply all DL snap %s vs 400%. The output won't be anything definitive, but I am interested to see how is stacks up to Indy's. Blunt, not surgical. 

 

The bolded was exactly what came to my mind after reading the articles this week, with the previous assumptions of bltiz %s. 

 

Your formula is not specific to passing downs.

 

The problem I was having is that there's no reliable way to acount for QB scrambles for positive gain, so you'll get an imperfect number. But assuming they didn't have like 150 QB scrambles against, the basic math indicates more than 0 "blitzes" for Ngakoue.

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6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Your formula is not specific to passing downs.

 

The problem I was having is that there's no reliable way to acount for QB scrambles for positive gain, so you'll get an imperfect number. But assuming they didn't have like 150 QB scrambles against, the basic math indicates more than 0 "blitzes" for Ngakoue.

Again, I think we disagree on the definition of a blitz. 

I'm more interested in the average DLs played per down. 

I don't really care about passing vs running down, as the number of passing downs is a reactive or arbitrary number in the first place. Teams pass on all downs. Heck, we only ran it once on first down vs Jax in the first half. 

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9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Again, I think we disagree on the definition of a blitz. 

I'm more interested in the average DLs played per down. 

I don't really care about passing vs running down, as the number of passing downs is a reactive or arbitrary number in the first place. Teams pass on all downs. Heck, we only ran it once on first down vs Jax in the first half. 

 

You're misunderstanding me. 

 

If you take all DL snaps, you will be including plays on which the offense ran the ball. These don't factor in blitzing stats.

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

You're misunderstanding me. 

 

If you take all DL snaps, you will be including plays on which the offense ran the ball. These don't factor in blitzing stats.

I know they don't factor in the stats. But blitzes or 5 man fronts are called on downs that end up being running plays. I'm more interested in personnel usage in general, not just purely what happens on passing downs (regardless of blitz definition).

 

Overall, I think understanding snap counts gives us some idea of personnel use. And keep in mind SAM is often part of the 5 man fronts too, so LB usage also factors big time. I've seen snap shots of all kinds of alignments on the LOS. LEO + 4 traditional DLs, LEO + 3 traditional DL, LEO + 3 traditional DL + SAM. So many Qs... 

 

One Q, is how much the SAM factors. For instance KJ Wright was their SAM (he also fits the LEO mold to an extent) and is on the LOS plenty, and played 37ish% of the snaps. And how SAM use impact WILL use. Littleton, LVR's WILL, didn't have nearly the snaps game in game out compared to Leonard. 

 

Again, so many Qs.

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On 2/13/2022 at 8:45 AM, throwing BBZ said:

 

 LMAO  Grandpa said to tell you... your head is in the wrong place!
AND...

 No one has called him "so great". Where do you get this s___?
 You ask why did the new Head Coach bring in his own guy rather than keep the Fired last coaches guy? Hard to figure huh?
 Allegations are a dime a dozen.
 And BTW, You actually have to play the game to see if the product shows signs of improvement.

 So the grown ups will wait and see what next seasons D, with a different roster, looks like. He is inheriting Buckner, Leonard, Moore as the only sure fire quality starters, guys that would start for most anyone.

 So there is no reason to expect miracles in one season.

  

  
  

He is an upgrade, I will leave it at that :thmup:

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15 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I know they don't factor in the stats. But blitzes or 5 man fronts are called on downs that end up being running plays. I'm more interested in personnel usage in general, not just purely what happens on passing downs (regardless of blitz definition).

 

Overall, I think understanding snap counts gives us some idea of personnel use. And keep in mind SAM is often part of the 5 man fronts too, so LB usage also factors big time. I've seen snap shots of all kinds of alignments on the LOS. LEO + 4 traditional DLs, LEO + 3 traditional DL, LEO + 3 traditional DL + SAM. So many Qs... 

 

One Q, is how much the SAM factors. For instance KJ Wright was their SAM (he also fits the LEO mold to an extent) and is on the LOS plenty, and played 37ish% of the snaps. And how SAM use impact WILL use. Littleton, LVR's WILL, didn't have nearly the snaps game in game out compared to Leonard. 

 

Again, so many Qs.

 

I was moving fast yesterday. Just to clean up a little, my approach was to find out how many pass rush snaps each DL played, in comparison to how many pass plays the defense faced. With that info, I could determine how often more than four linemen rushed the passer. 

 

I think your objective is a little different, which is fine.

 

I'm also done with the Raiders/Colts game. Halfway through the third quarter, one pass play where the Raiders sent more than four rushers. 

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@EastStreet I need to read all this properly, but thank you for starting the conversation, it will be interesting to see the differences next year. One thing that sprang to mind was Ballard has always been in favour of height/wingspan guys, that seemed to ring a bell with Seattle's approach during the Legion days. Maybe I'm way off base, and should go look up some measurables, but was interested in your thoughts on personnel and if we need a shake up.

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First off, thanks to @EastStreetfor starting and explaining this defense.  I remember Ballard envisioned this defense for the Colts.  I am excited to see where this goes moving forward and would love to see it succeed....I have always wanted a top tier defense for the Colts and unfortunately have a few seasons of that in 50 years as a fan.

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@EastStreet

 

I finished the Colts/Raiders game. I counted three passing plays where the Raiders sent more than 4 rushers. On one play, they sent six. That provides some context for PFF's charting, which has three non DL with pass rushes: Hobbs (2), Moehrig (1), Perryman (1). I might have seen that charting and assumed they blitzed on four pass plays, but that context is helpful.

 

Also, the Colts passing/pressure chart shows three plays with blitzes. And I just realized that's the easiest/best charting I can find. Just have to go game by game. I'll post it in a minute.

 

Edit:

So without posting the game by game numbers, here are the totals. PFF has 73 Raiders blitzes (defined as you showed above) in 17 regular season + 1 playoff game. The most was 9 blitzes out of 57 pass plays, Week 3 vs Miami; also 8 in 41 pass plays, Week 4 against Chargers. There were several games with 2 or three blitzes.

 

This still doesn't answer our five man rush question, but I'm thinking from some surface viewing that there wasn't as much five man rushing as previously indicated. I think there's plenty of Ngakoue in the Leo spot, or other stand up rushers on either side of the formation. But generally, still just four rushers coming. I'm going to watch the Week 3 and 4 games and get a better feel for how much Ngakoue rushed from the Leo spot as a fifth rusher, but I'm starting to think PFR's number makes sense.

 

Also, PFR has the Raiders with 82 blitzes, rather than PFF's 73. That might be explained by mixed rushes, if PFF is more strict in their definition, and PFR is more loose. Either way, not a huge discrepancy between the two numbers. And it likely won't change the overall conclusion that Bradley isn't sending more than four rushers very often.

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