If the cap actually falls 20-30 million, as first reported

[ColtJax]

There's going to be a lot of quality players let go and even more FA's that won't find a home. I read that the union is trying to spread the declining revenue over a couple/few years, even so that would still be a 10-15 million drop when many teams were expecting and counting on a bump up. Look at teams like the Texans, well over the cap as it is. JJ Watts will be gone, can't keep him, and they don't have a 1st or 2nd to re-stock. Dallas will be in major trouble as well..

[lollygagger8]

Good job KC on giving your QB $50M/yr 

 

[UKColt13]

Ouch.

 

Saints, Philly, Atlanta, Pitt, Rams will be firesaleing if that’s true.

[chad72]

We will be following Rivers with Matt Ryan and then Carson Wentz in that order, just kidding.  

[w87r]

The salary cap this year is $198.2m

 

 

It wont drop lower than $175m, which was agreed upon earlier.

 

So the most it will drop is $23.2m.

 

Still a significant drop, but if we can complete the season and keep up with a safe amount of fan attendance I dont think it will drop quite that far.?

 

You would think the owners would be open to spread that $23.2m over 3-4 seasons, but they have been reluctant to, so far. It would substantially lower the drop($6-$8m a year) though, if they decided to.

 

A lot of teams will be in trouble though for sure.

[w87r]

7 minutes ago, chad72 said:

We will be following Rivers with Matt Ryan and then Carson Wentz in that order, just kidding.  

Matt Ryan has a dead cap hit of $49m+ if released this offseason and a salary of $40m so it would cost Falcons $9m more to release him then let him play.

 

Carson Wentz has a dead cap hit of $59m and a salary of $34m so it would cost Eagles $25m more to release him then let him play.

 

Neither one of those guys are going to be released. A trade would reduce those numbers a little bit, but would still be a huge dead cap hit for the teams. Wentz($33.9m) Ryan($44m)

 

** numbers aren't approximate, buy neither of those guys are going anywhere this offseason.

[chad72]

Just now, w87r said:

Matt Ryan has a dead cap hit of $49m+ if released this offseason and a salary of $40m so it would cost Falcons $9m more to release him then let him play.

 

Carson Wentz has a dead cap hit of $59m and a salary of $34m so it would cost Eagles $25m more to release him then let him play.

 

Neither one of those guys are going to be released. A trade would reduce those numbers a little bit, but would still be a huge dead cap hit for the teams. Wentz($33.9m) Ryan($44m)

 

** numbers aren't approximate, buy neither of those guys are going anywhere this offseason.

 

I was talking in 2022 and then 2024...making a joke that we would regurgitate team discards every 2 years.  

[w87r]

2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I was talking in 2022 and then 2024...making a joke that we would regurgitate team discards every 2 years.  

Neither one of those options effect what the cap is doing next year though.

 

I knew you were joking, I was just throwing the numbers out there to reflect what it would do to those teams if they got rid of them this offseason. It doesn't help their cap at all, in fact makes the cap hits worse.

[shasta519]

I don’t know about firesale...but it might result in some really good young players not signing with their respective teams.

[shasta519]

27 minutes ago, w87r said:

Neither one of those options effect what the cap is doing next year though.

 

I knew you were joking, I was just throwing the numbers out there to reflect what it would do to those teams if they got rid of them this offseason. It doesn't help their cap at all, in fact makes the cap hits worse.

ATL is in trouble. They probably should trade Ryan this offseason and move on to a young QB to rebuild...but they can’t.

 

PHI at least has a potential replacement on the roster...but they can’t rid of Wentz.
 

However, Wentz could agree to restructure IF he liked the destination. And reuniting with his former OC could be just that destination. It really makes a lot of sense from that perspective. Personally...I would have cautious optimism about Wentz coming here.

Certainly I would feel better about him than Eason...because he has shown he can do it...but he has been really bad this year and he gets hurt often.

 

I want Darnold. 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

We will be following Rivers with Matt Ryan and then Carson Wentz in that order, just kidding.  

All jokes aside...there will be older QB options out there...so that is an option that will be there.

 

But personally, I want Darnold. He’s really young and has the tools...he just has had a terrible HC and a poor environment to develop in. 
 

I think the NYJ will easily get a top 2-3 pick (likely #1) and they will have no choice but to use it on a top QB...given how strong the top 2-3 are next year. This will also improve their HC options...as that HC would get to pick/have his new young QB...instead of an embattled starter on a bad team. And it would allow the organization to jumpstart some excitement.

 

There will certainly be competition though...as the Colts aren’t the only good team who needs a young QB but won’t draft high enough to get one (without a massive trade up).

 

BUT...Ballard clearly has an unusually strong relationship with the NYJ org...especially with Hogan over there now. They have done several trades, including the massive sweetheart deal when the NYJ traded up for Darnold.

 

That could be a bad look though...dumping the QB to the team you traded all that draft capital to get. I am sure it would be pointed out ad nauseum. But Douglas and Hogan weren’t with the org when that trade was made...so maybe they won’t care. However...I think to get it done...Ballard might overpay a bit so the NYJ can make it look like a win.

 

I honestly can see this playing out...provided the NYJ are willing to trade Darnold within the conference.

[csmopar]

4 hours ago, ColtJax said:

There's going to be a lot of quality players let go and even more FA's that won't find a home. I read that the union is trying to spread the declining revenue over a couple/few years, even so that would still be a 10-15 million drop when many teams were expecting and counting on a bump up. Look at teams like the Texans, well over the cap as it is. JJ Watts will be gone, can't keep him, and they don't have a 1st or 2nd to re-stock. Dallas will be in major trouble as well..

there's gonna be a lot of shuffling. Teams that are up against the cap will be hurting big time.  Teams like the Colts, they'll feel a pinch, but it wont be too bad. This list is assuming the cap space DOES NOT change up or down for 2021 and is from OTC.  Saints and Eagles are gonna have to clear 100 million in cap space or close to it if the league drops the cap 30million.

 

 

[chad72]

3 hours ago, shasta519 said:

ATL is in trouble. They probably should trade Ryan this offseason and move on to a young QB to rebuild...but they can’t.

 

PHI at least has a potential replacement on the roster...but they can’t rid of Wentz.
 

However, Wentz could agree to restructure IF he liked the destination. And reuniting with his former OC could be just that destination. It really makes a lot of sense from that perspective. Personally...I would have cautious optimism about Wentz coming here.

Certainly I would feel better about him than Eason...because he has shown he can do it...but he has been really bad this year and he gets hurt often.

 

I want Darnold. 

 

If they feel Eason is progressing well, Eason's direct comparison is Josh Allen w.r.t arm strength and lower completion percentage. However, Round 1 vs Round 4 is a big difference.

 

Year 3, we are seeing Josh Allen's improvement but then Josh Allen used his legs under pressure compared to Eason whose knock was he did not do well under pressure, much like the knock on Dwayne Haskins. At least I am confident Ballard and Reich will provide OL help and coaching better than the deal Haskins is getting in Washington. I do think after 2 years of Rivers tops, we will know based on their off season moves after 2021 season if they feel Eason is the guy or not. 

 

Getting Darnold is a pipe dream, but hey you can dream!!!  

[shasta519]

52 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

If they feel Eason is progressing well, Eason's direct comparison is Josh Allen w.r.t arm strength and lower completion percentage. However, Round 1 vs Round 4 is a big difference.

 

Year 3, we are seeing Josh Allen's improvement but then Josh Allen used his legs under pressure compared to Eason whose knock was he did not do well under pressure, much like the knock on Dwayne Haskins. At least I am confident Ballard and Reich will provide OL help and coaching better than the deal Haskins is getting in Washington. I do think after 2 years of Rivers tops, we will know based on their off season moves after 2021 season if they feel Eason is the guy or not. 

 

Getting Darnold is a pipe dream, but hey you can dream!!!  

 

Yeah...it's a dream for sure. But there are circumstances that could lead it to being a reality...especially if the NYJ are as bad as they appear. They will almost have to take Lawrence in that scenario...especially since they will be searching for a new HC. And I doubt he's a guy who is going to sit for a year...so Darnold will have to go somewhere to play that year.  

 

But I am interested to see what Eason can do. No QB performs "well" under pressure...but it can easily what does a QB in. This is the area where Eason will be most challenged...even with a strong pass blocking OL.

 

Darnold was pressured more than any other QB last year. But with a clean pocket...he was 6th in adjusted completion percentage. I can only imagine what he could do with an elite pass blocking OL with Reich coaching...and with real weapons around him. It's pretty crazy how bad that organization has been...but I think some time is going to really benefit from their shortcomings.

[MacDee1975]

7 hours ago, ColtJax said:

There's going to be a lot of quality players let go and even more FA's that won't find a home. I read that the union is trying to spread the declining revenue over a couple/few years, even so that would still be a 10-15 million drop when many teams were expecting and counting on a bump up. Look at teams like the Texans, well over the cap as it is. JJ Watts will be gone, can't keep him, and they don't have a 1st or 2nd to re-stock. Dallas will be in major trouble as well..

 

And their about to pay their decent at best franchise qb 160 million dollars.  To say they are screwed is a tremendous understatement.

[ReMeDy]

11 hours ago, MacDee1975 said:

 

And their about to pay their decent at best franchise qb 160 million dollars.  To say they are screwed is a tremendous understatement.

 

I'm beginning to see why Bill O'Brien let DeAndre Hopkins go for peanuts.

[ColtJax]

Most, if not all expected the cap to go up 10 million. Instead it's going to go down 20 million. That's a 30 million dollar hole just to start with. The Cowboys are up against it now, and Dak wants 40+ million, good luck with that. There's a lot of teams right up against it with some of their bigtime players wanting a new contract. This year, like non other we're going to see a ton of hole out. Players that think they're worth 10-15 million won't find anyone making offers, just too many players and not enough money..

[Superman]

On 10/9/2020 at 5:45 AM, lollygagger8 said:

Good job KC on giving your QB $50M/yr 

 

 

2020 cap hit: $5.3m

2021 cap hit: $24.8m 

2022 cap hit: $31.4m

 

He won't be top five either of the next two seasons. By then, the cap will be getting back to normal. His cap hit in 2023 goes to $42.5m, which is less than Kirk Cousins is scheduled to hit for in 2022 (Cousins money goes guaranteed in 2021, and it's unlikely they'll cut him because his dead cap hit in 2021 is $41m; it's already guaranteed for injury). After 2023, his cap hits stay relatively flat, except for one spike in 2027 where it goes up to $60m, but that doesn't matter right now.

 

The Chiefs will be okay. They're gonna get pinched next year if the cap goes all the way down to $175m, but Mahomes still won't be their highest paid player (Frank Clark). His contract isn't hurting them. They did good.

[Superman]

On 10/9/2020 at 10:53 AM, chad72 said:

 

If they feel Eason is progressing well, Eason's direct comparison is Josh Allen w.r.t arm strength and lower completion percentage. However, Round 1 vs Round 4 is a big difference.

 

Year 3, we are seeing Josh Allen's improvement but then Josh Allen used his legs under pressure compared to Eason whose knock was he did not do well under pressure, much like the knock on Dwayne Haskins. At least I am confident Ballard and Reich will provide OL help and coaching better than the deal Haskins is getting in Washington. I do think after 2 years of Rivers tops, we will know based on their off season moves after 2021 season if they feel Eason is the guy or not. 

 

Getting Darnold is a pipe dream, but hey you can dream!!!  

 

Yeah, Josh Allen is a good runner. Eason, not so much.

[chad72]

@Superman @shasta519

 

If Philip Rivers does not work out after this year and the Falcons get their hands on Trevor Lawrence, what kind of restructuring would Matt Ryan have to do with his contract for us to be able to afford him? He has played indoors all his life and he will be a natural fit indoors. His contract runs through 2023 and he will be 36 in 2021 and his contract runs through till he is 38. The question is, has his ability diminished?

 

This is his contract: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/matt-ryan-3983/

 

Ideal situation we should hope for is that the Jets get the #1 pick or the Falcons get the #1 pick. Or maybe we give Eason 2021 to see what we have with him, and Matt Ryan and the Falcons have an out in 2022, when he might be cut and become available???

[shasta519]

51 minutes ago, chad72 said:

@Superman @shasta519

 

If Philip Rivers does not work out after this year and the Falcons get their hands on Trevor Lawrence, what kind of restructuring would Matt Ryan have to do with his contract for us to be able to afford him? He has played indoors all his life and he will be a natural fit indoors. His contract runs through 2023 and he will be 36 in 2021 and his contract runs through till he is 38. The question is, has his ability diminished?

 

This is his contract: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/matt-ryan-3983/

 

Ideal situation we should hope for is that the Jets get the #1 pick or the Falcons get the #1 pick. Or maybe we give Eason 2021 to see what we have with him, and Matt Ryan and the Falcons have an out in 2022, when he might be cut and become available???

 

He just restructured his contract in March...so I am not sure how much more restructuring he could (or would) do. The signing and restructure bonuses would accelerate in a trade regardless...so I guess it would depend on whether ATL is willing to stomach eating all of that at once...or eating the remaining part of it after next season. 

 

Because they are blowing it up...it will be interesting to see who they hire at GM and HC. That would give us some clue into whether they are going to try to make a 3-4 year run with Ryan...or start over and rebuild. 

 

If they get one of the top 2 QBs...I think they will move Ryan...even with the cap hit...and take a rebuilding year to right the cap. They face a similar scenario with Julio...and I think they will have to make a similar decision...eat the cap space and clear the books.

 

 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

@Superman @shasta519

 

If Philip Rivers does not work out after this year and the Falcons get their hands on Trevor Lawrence, what kind of restructuring would Matt Ryan have to do with his contract for us to be able to afford him? He has played indoors all his life and he will be a natural fit indoors. His contract runs through 2023 and he will be 36 in 2021 and his contract runs through till he is 38. The question is, has his ability diminished?

 

This is his contract: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/matt-ryan-3983/

 

Ideal situation we should hope for is that the Jets get the #1 pick or the Falcons get the #1 pick. Or maybe we give Eason 2021 to see what we have with him, and Matt Ryan and the Falcons have an out in 2022, when he might be cut and become available???

 

If they trade him before June 1, they have a $43.8m cap penalty in 2021. (After June 1, it gets spread out over two years, but that scenario doesn't really work for the Colts.) Any move they consider making doesn't make any cap sense for the Falcons until after 2021. If the Falcons did trade him in 2021, the new team would owe him $23m in 2021, and $5.5m of that is already guaranteed for injury.

 

Not my favorite scenario. I think Matt Ryan is better than Philip Rivers, but at this point I want us to find the next long term guy. I don't know if that's Eason, but I bet it's not. By the way, that's my preferred strategy even if Rivers were to have a great season (which doesn't seem likely at this point). I don't really want another bridge guy, especially in his late 30s when decline is more likely than sustained high level performance.

 

I don't think we have to try to find a bail out from another team. It's possible to find a good QB in the draft, even without a top pick. Of the top ten QBs this year in passing yards or TD passes, only three of that bunch were picked in the top ten. And if you really like a guy in the top ten, pay the cost and go up and get him. If the Jets want to dump Darnold for next to nothing, sure I'm interested, but not if they want considerable draft resources for him (which I think they could get). There are a lot of talented guys at QB up and down the draft, plus some guys who will be available in free agency (potentially). Swinging for Matt Ryan definitely isn't high on my list at this point.

[stitches]

56 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

If they trade him before June 1, they have a $43.8m cap penalty in 2021. (After June 1, it gets spread out over two years, but that scenario doesn't really work for the Colts.) Any move they consider making doesn't make any cap sense for the Falcons until after 2021. If the Falcons did trade him in 2021, the new team would owe him $23m in 2021, and $5.5m of that is already guaranteed for injury.

 

Not my favorite scenario. I think Matt Ryan is better than Philip Rivers, but at this point I want us to find the next long term guy. I don't know if that's Eason, but I bet it's not. By the way, that's my preferred strategy even if Rivers were to have a great season (which doesn't seem likely at this point). I don't really want another bridge guy, especially in his late 30s when decline is more likely than sustained high level performance.

 

I don't think we have to try to find a bail out from another team. It's possible to find a good QB in the draft, even without a top pick. Of the top ten QBs this year in passing yards or TD passes, only three of that bunch were picked in the top ten. And if you really like a guy in the top ten, pay the cost and go up and get him. If the Jets want to dump Darnold for next to nothing, sure I'm interested, but not if they want considerable draft resources for him (which I think they could get). There are a lot of talented guys at QB up and down the draft, plus some guys who will be available in free agency (potentially). Swinging for Matt Ryan definitely isn't high on my list at this point.

Yep, agree with most of it... 

 

The only thing I will add is... Ballard and Reich are in a precarious position. If they fail this year this will be 3 out of 4 years for Ballard and 2 out of 3 years for Reich that their team has missed the playoffs and the only time they didn't it was with Luck. Deserved or not there will probably be strong narrative going that the only success either of them had has been thanks to Luck. So... in that situation here's some questions: how safe are Ballard and Reich? Would you give them the opportunity to draft your next QB? This pretty much means you have to give them at least 2 more years and if you start a rookie QB it's very possible you miss the playoffs for yet another year... and if you keep them... what would a coach in that situation be pushing for and what would a GM in that situation most likely be seeking - a vet QB to take care of what they seem to think is a good roster, or a rookie QB? IMO Ballard is probably not in the mode of starting over with a new rookie QB. IMO it's very likely Ballard won't be in the mode of starting over with a rookie QB... so yeah... it's very likely we will be looking at someone like Ryan or Dak(if Dallas doesn't offer him contract after that injury).

 

This is more about what I think is likely to happen, not what I want to happen. I'm with you about the desire to get our next QB from the draft. 

[chad72]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Yep, agree with most of it... 

 

The only thing I will add is... Ballard and Reich are in a precarious position. If they fail this year this will be 3 out of 4 years for Ballard and 2 out of 3 years for Reich that their team has missed the playoffs and the only time they didn't it was with Luck. Deserved or not there will probably be strong narrative going that the only success either of them had has been thanks to Luck. So... in that situation here's some questions: how safe are Ballard and Reich? Would you give them the opportunity to draft your next QB? This pretty much means you have to give them at least 2 more years and if you start a rookie QB it's very possible you miss the playoffs for yet another year... and if you keep them... what would a coach in that situation be pushing for and what would a GM in that situation most likely be seeking - a vet QB to take care of what they seem to think is a good roster, or a rookie QB? IMO Ballard is probably not in the mode of starting over with a new rookie QB. IMO it's very likely Ballard won't be in the mode of starting over with a rookie QB... so yeah... it's very likely we will be looking at someone like Ryan or Dak(if Dallas doesn't offer him contract after that injury).

 

This is more about what I think is likely to happen, not what I want to happen. I'm with you about the desire to get our next QB from the draft. 

 

I would think Ballard is safer than Reich because Reich has underwhelmed with his play calling consistently. From the 0-6 game at Jacksonville in 2018 with Luck when we were going in on an 8 game run with those failed 4th downs and failing to run against a team whose weakness was run D (ring a bell? fast forward, same thing in 2020), Reich doesn't learn from his mistakes and is too stubborn to a fault. Eberflus has been coaching like his seat is hot, to be honest, Reich is not. 

 

Plus, Ballard, prior to this draft, has not invested with a premium on skill positions, he still thinks he is in the 2006 Bears era. Times are different, QBs roll out, contact for DBs has been minimized and with mobile elite QBs, mismatches with speed give fits even to the best of elite Ds. On offense you cannot just hope to play one style of offense (run to set up the pass) and win in the NFL. You have to be ready to run it 40 times or pass it 40 times, there wasn't much emphasis on building a team with that philosophy, IMO. 

 

QB, WR, Pass rushers - those are 3 areas we should have just bit the bullet and gotten some premium talent in the last 2 drafts. Till this draft, Ballard thought he could get by on the WR front, "hoping" that the TY decline would be gradual, which it is not. We cannot build an offensive philosophy to "work around" a QB that has to remain ahead of the chains and be a front runner when you pay him $25 million, period. 

[Superman]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Yep, agree with most of it... 

 

The only thing I will add is... Ballard and Reich are in a precarious position. If they fail this year this will be 3 out of 4 years for Ballard and 2 out of 3 years for Reich that their team has missed the playoffs and the only time they didn't it was with Luck. Deserved or not there will probably be strong narrative going that the only success either of them had has been thanks to Luck. So... in that situation here's some questions: how safe are Ballard and Reich? Would you give them the opportunity to draft your next QB? This pretty much means you have to give them at least 2 more years and if you start a rookie QB it's very possible you miss the playoffs for yet another year... and if you keep them... what would a coach in that situation be pushing for and what would a GM in that situation most likely be seeking - a vet QB to take care of what they seem to think is a good roster, or a rookie QB? IMO Ballard is probably not in the mode of starting over with a new rookie QB. IMO it's very likely Ballard won't be in the mode of starting over with a rookie QB... so yeah... it's very likely we will be looking at someone like Ryan or Dak(if Dallas doesn't offer him contract after that injury).

 

This is more about what I think is likely to happen, not what I want to happen. I'm with you about the desire to get our next QB from the draft. 

 

I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about whether I would pursue Dak, mostly because I expect him to stay in Dallas (still do). But I would be far more open to Dak, at 27 years old, as a long term guy. He easily has another five years left, and is probably just hitting his prime as a passer. I'd rather have a stud prospect from the draft, but if a guy like Dak comes available, that's a lot different from a 36 year old Matt Ryan or a 37 year old Philip Rivers.

 

As for Reich and Ballard, they are nowhere near in trouble with me at this point. Ballard still hasn't drafted a QB worth talking about. It's not like he already took a swing, and missed. Ballard has been great. They both thought they were taking over a team with a franchise QB in his prime. We saw what they did with Luck, and to be honest, a still patchwork roster; the OL finally came together that year, but we still had very little at WR, a couple TEs, and a bad defense. 

 

I'm a little frustrated with Reich. I'm starting to wonder if he's an old school, conservative coach, masquerading as an aggressive guy running an open offense. I'm always nervous about head coaches who are primary play callers -- they struggle with game flow and game management, and under serve the side of the ball that they don't directly oversee. And in Reich's case, it's not like he's knocking it out of the park as a play caller, so his perceived lapses in game management (from my perspective) aren't easy to excuse. But I still have hope for him, and there are lots of good things that have happened because of him. We'll see if he keeps building on them.

 

I don't think they'll reset at QB, but only because I think the rest of the roster is too close to hand it over to an unproven young guy. We need a stud receiver, we need another pass rusher, but the roster is good enough to compete in the AFC right now, IMO. 

 

And maybe that's the wrong approach. Maybe it would be smarter to nuke it right now, trade anyone you can who isn't a long term guy, let the vets walk in FA, let Rivers go nuts until we're out of playoff contention and then give Eason a couple weeks at the end of the season to see what he looks like. Then use that info to determine whether we should roll with Eason + competition next year, or completely restart at QB. Or add someone like Dak + Eason in 2021. I don't like this approach, it's basically tanking (not losing on purpose, but getting rid of good players before your season is "over"). But this is the way to figure out whether Eason is good enough to compete as your starter next year.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

On offense you cannot just hope to play one style of offense (run to set up the pass) and win in the NFL. You have to be ready to run it 40 times or pass it 40 times, there wasn't much emphasis on building a team with that philosophy, IMO. 

 

QB, WR, Pass rushers - those are 3 areas we should have just bit the bullet and gotten some premium talent in the last 2 drafts. Till this draft, Ballard thought he could get by on the WR front, "hoping" that the TY decline would be gradual, which it is not. We cannot build an offensive philosophy to "work around" a QB that has to remain ahead of the chains and be a front runner when you pay him $25 million, period. 

 

Just a couple things on this. 

 

First, I would like to see our offense dictate to the defense, impose our will on them, and have teams come in with the understanding that they're going to get beat one way or the other. That means we need to be good enough on offense to consistently beat defenses. Right now, we're not. 

 

Second thing, Ballard spent back to back second rounders on WRs (good ones, IMO). They're both on ice right now, due to injuries that were impossible to predict. I submit that if Campbell and Pittman were both healthy, the offense would be better right now. He also has had only one draft with the understanding that Luck isn't the QB. 

[stitches]

13 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about whether I would pursue Dak, mostly because I expect him to stay in Dallas (still do). But I would be far more open to Dak, at 27 years old, as a long term guy. He easily has another five years left, and is probably just hitting his prime as a passer. I'd rather have a stud prospect from the draft, but if a guy like Dak comes available, that's a lot different from a 36 year old Matt Ryan or a 37 year old Philip Rivers.

 

Agree.

 

Quote

As for Reich and Ballard, they are nowhere near in trouble with me at this point. Ballard still hasn't drafted a QB worth talking about. It's not like he already took a swing, and missed. Ballard has been great. They both thought they were taking over a team with a franchise QB in his prime. We saw what they did with Luck, and to be honest, a still patchwork roster; the OL finally came together that year, but we still had very little at WR, a couple TEs, and a bad defense. 

 

Agree with the evaluation of the circumstances they took over and I do agree that taking those circumstances into account you should give them a bit of a leeway and a bit of time to rebuild the roster, but again - at some point that time has to expire and you have to hold them accountable for the success or lack of success of this team. Choosing to go with Rivers and not draft a QB in this draft has to go on their record. Picking all those DEs in the second-third round, none of whom have panned out has to be on their record. The lack of success in drafting WRs has to go on their record. The secondary has to go on their record... just like fixing the OL is on their record. I'm not quite there with wanting Ballard on the hot seat, because I think he's done good job acquiring talent and depth on the roster, but I do start to see some things with his philosophy that I don't like and if not fixed will be permanent hinderance to this team while he's our GM. 

 

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I'm a little frustrated with Reich. I'm starting to wonder if he's an old school, conservative coach, masquerading as an aggressive guy running an open offense. I'm always nervous about head coaches who are primary play callers -- they struggle with game flow and game management, and under serve the side of the ball that they don't directly oversee. And in Reich's case, it's not like he's knocking it out of the park as a play caller, so his perceived lapses in game management (from my perspective) aren't easy to excuse. But I still have hope for him, and there are lots of good things that have happened because of him. We'll see if he keeps building on them.

I'm not sure if it was you or someone else I was writing to on PMs a while ago exactly about this thing - I think I said something along the lines of - I'm not sure if the aggressive playstyle in that year we had Luck was thanks to Reich's playcalling or thanks to Luck's command of the team at the LoS and him driving us with more aggressive play selection at the LoS. To me a lot of Reich's public statements and some of his playcalling hint at him being exactly that - an old school, conservative coach who passes as some modern day aggressive guy simply because of some 4th down calls. And notice - he makes the call to go on 4th down(which I love), but rarely if ever runs anything exotic or surprising on those... it's usually run right behind Quenton or quick slant or comeback/flat route around the sticks. Another example - even this year with Rivers we are still running more than passing the ball(51%). We are even more conservative than we were last year(48%)!!! We are 27th in the league in pass % on early downs too. This is not an aggressive playcaller. This is one of the most passive playcallers in the league. And this has been every year he's been here with the exception of the Luck year. Evidence is mounting that Reich maybe just is a naturally conservative playcaller. 

 

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I don't think they'll reset at QB, but only because I think the rest of the roster is too close to hand it over to an unproven young guy. We need a stud receiver, we need another pass rusher, but the roster is good enough to compete in the AFC right now, IMO. 

I think we are lacking at too many important positions to be true contenders. I think we have very competitive roster with good talent overall, but the faults with this roster are critical. But yeah... I agree... I don't think Ballard will be willing to go with a young guy without having some sort of bridge QB at the very least.

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And maybe that's the wrong approach. Maybe it would be smarter to nuke it right now, trade anyone you can who isn't a long term guy, let the vets walk in FA, let Rivers go nuts until we're out of playoff contention and then give Eason a couple weeks at the end of the season to see what he looks like. Then use that info to determine whether we should roll with Eason + competition next year, or completely restart at QB. Or add someone like Dak + Eason in 2021. I don't like this approach, it's basically tanking (not losing on purpose, but getting rid of good players before your season is "over"). But this is the way to figure out whether Eason is good enough to compete as your starter next year.

I think we should keep going for wins and potential playoff run, but not be stupid around the trade deadline... keep the powder dry and maybe even trade some of the vets that won't be part of the long-term plan here. I think to some degree they can evaluate how Eason is doing in practice... if Rivers continues to put in this type of performances I'd gladly move on to Eason if they think he's ready to run the offense in order to see what he's made of and whether he can be long-term solution for us. But if he's not ready to go in now(by the end of the year) or if he's ready but doesn't impress once he's in, I would be making a move for some of the top prospects in the draft. I know WRs and LT and DE are important, but nothing compares to QB in the totem pole of importance for team success. Herbert is throwing bombs to some Indiana state guy and is being protected by Sam Tevi. 

[Myles]

15 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

I would think Ballard is safer than Reich because Reich has underwhelmed with his play calling consistently. From the 0-6 game at Jacksonville in 2018 with Luck when we were going in on an 8 game run with those failed 4th downs and failing to run against a team whose weakness was run D (ring a bell? fast forward, same thing in 2020), Reich doesn't learn from his mistakes and is too stubborn to a fault. Eberflus has been coaching like his seat is hot, to be honest, Reich is not. 

 

Plus, Ballard, prior to this draft, has not invested with a premium on skill positions, he still thinks he is in the 2006 Bears era. Times are different, QBs roll out, contact for DBs has been minimized and with mobile elite QBs, mismatches with speed give fits even to the best of elite Ds. On offense you cannot just hope to play one style of offense (run to set up the pass) and win in the NFL. You have to be ready to run it 40 times or pass it 40 times, there wasn't much emphasis on building a team with that philosophy, IMO. 

 

QB, WR, Pass rushers - those are 3 areas we should have just bit the bullet and gotten some premium talent in the last 2 drafts. Till this draft, Ballard thought he could get by on the WR front, "hoping" that the TY decline would be gradual, which it is not. We cannot build an offensive philosophy to "work around" a QB that has to remain ahead of the chains and be a front runner when you pay him $25 million, period. 

Remember, he thought he had Luck as the QB.   He also had to use much of the drafts to replace the poor players Grigson left him with.  He had to build depth.  He turned the O-line from one of the worst to one of the best in the league.  He improved the D-line.   Improved the LB's.  Improved the secondary.  Drafted 2 WR's in the second rounds.  

I think he has done great.  The QB spot will be a bit tougher, especially when the team is good enough not to have a high draft pick.   

[chad72]

15 minutes ago, Myles said:

Remember, he thought he had Luck as the QB.   He also had to use much of the drafts to replace the poor players Grigson left him with.  He had to build depth.  He turned the O-line from one of the worst to one of the best in the league.  He improved the D-line.   Improved the LB's.  Improved the secondary.  Drafted 2 WR's in the second rounds.  

I think he has done great.  The QB spot will be a bit tougher, especially when the team is good enough not to have a high draft pick.   

 

No doubt about all those things you said about Ballard, 100% agree. Like I said, my only problem is the production we are getting from Tyquan Lewis, Ben Banogu, and the 2 WRs Ballard drafted. We haven't had any serious stretches of games where Parris was ever dominating or valuable, even if we ignore the rookie Pittman. Later round picks like Fountain, they haven't done those either. I see rookie wide outs contribute faster than ever in the league, you have to wonder if it is Frank Reich and his coaching staff that are not developing them as well as other teams are. The only time we saw an offensive player ball out was Ebron under Luck with Reich. Maybe Reich is not creative with how he uses WRs, that could also be the case.

 

We gave Grigson points for trying but when we did not get the results, we pointed the finger at him even if Grigson's players had injuries. That is what I am doing with Ballard. I love the depth everywhere else he has built including special teams that was an eyesore under Polian. That is why I feel Reich has to be on the hot seat, I don't feel Ballard could be considered to be on the hot seat at this point because he has done plenty enough in so many areas. I hope this post is more clear.

[ColtJax]

Just throw the sink at Luck to get him to un-retire.

[Valpo2004]

13 hours ago, ColtJax said:

Just throw the sink at Luck to get him to un-retire.

 

I don't think it's going to happen at all but I would further say that if he doesn't un-retire after this year it's almost certain that he won't be back.  If he's good with not playing football for 2 years straight then there really isn't anything that's going to suddenly change his mind on that.