Interesting draft analysis from Rob Rang

[Scott Pennock]

He touches on the obvious, Nelson is a beast, Hines is lightening in a bottle and Cain was a steal.....but, sheds some light on Ballards strategy.

 

https://www.themaven.net/nfldraftscout/colts/finding-the-fits-special-rookie-class-may-get-colts-galloping-in-2018-X-ql6AcBPEWwi5qvjyUbRQ/

[CR91]

Nice read, but I feel like no one talks about fountain. The way he attacks the ball reminds me of hopkins

[GoColts8818]

Who is Rob Rang?

[Four2itus]

This.....

 

"Though injuries sustained to quarterbacks may be a different story, many pocket passers (like Luck) are most hampered on a snap-to-snap basis by defenders in their face, rather than those screaming off the edges."

 

 

 

[zibby43]

Wow.  Fantastic read.  Would highly recommend reading the entire piece.  Great statistics and schematic analysis to back up claims and grades.

 

Very rare to find something this in-depth these days.

 

Thanks for sharing. 

[shakedownstreet]

10 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Who is Rob Rang?

 

I don't know but he stole all my ringtones 

[shakedownstreet]

I enjoyed the part about Tyquan Lewis. If we are going to employ a 4-3, can we just get our interior pressure star upfront, considering that was a piece we all but NEVER had under Dungy 

[ztboiler]

I’d be a bit more impressed if Rang included that Lewis is great fit to kick inside as a sub package rusher but he doesn’t project as the type of 3 tech that makes this defense go unless the Colts plan to repeat history.  We’ve had that player here before and it’s an important fit today as it was then, but finding a good undersized interior pass rusher is not the dilemma of running his defense.

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

15 hours ago, Scott Pennock said:

He touches on the obvious, Nelson is a beast, Hines is lightening in a bottle and Cain was a steal.....but, sheds some light on Ballards strategy.

 

https://www.themaven.net/nfldraftscout/colts/finding-the-fits-special-rookie-class-may-get-colts-galloping-in-2018-X-ql6AcBPEWwi5qvjyUbRQ/

 

Thank You for that it was interesting  ;This is something that puts a smile on my face ..

 

I won't waste a lot of time in this space gushing about Nelson, the best guard prospect I've scouted since Steve Hutchinson. It is not just that Nelson is a terrific talent with an ideal blend of size (6-5, 330), strength (35 repetitions of 225 pounds at the Combine) and mobility. Like Hutchinson (a Hall of Fame finalist in 2018), Nelson complements his physical gifts with a nasty playing demeanor that can be simultaneously inspirational to his teammates and demoralizing to opponents. He has a bully element that the Colts' offensive line (and team, as a whole) has been missing for quite some time.

 

 

[Scott Pennock]

In Ballards mind I'm betting that he would like for Basham and Turay to be this generation of Colts bookend pass rushers (aka Freeney & Mathis) and Lewis to be the new Brock (capable on the edge and as the UT in pass rushing situations).

 

Not saying that these 2 will be future HOFers and/or have a solid career like Brock - if we got 80% of thier production that would be amazing.

[VaAllDay757]

19 hours ago, CR91 said:

Nice read, but I feel like no one talks about fountain. The way he attacks the ball reminds me of hopkins

He can catch the ball for sure but he doesn't get much separation from the cornerback he has to improve on that

[CR91]

8 minutes ago, VaAllDay757 said:

He can catch the ball for sure but he doesn't get much separation from the cornerback he has to improve on that

 

that comes over time once they learn how to run proper routes and they have one of the best to show them

[LockeDown]

11 hours ago, shakedownstreet said:

 

I don't know but he stole all my ringtones 

Rob Rang randomly released righteous ringtones ....by the seashore? 

[Superman]

On 7/7/2018 at 5:49 PM, CR91 said:

Nice read, but I feel like no one talks about fountain. The way he attacks the ball reminds me of hopkins

 

I think Fountain is impressive also. Hopkins is a lofty comparison, but I get it. Fountain needs to improve his awareness to stay in bounds, but he could be a Hopkins-like ball catcher. 

[Superman]

On 7/8/2018 at 8:41 AM, ztboiler said:

I’d be a bit more impressed if Rang included that Lewis is great fit to kick inside as a sub package rusher but he doesn’t project as the type of 3 tech that makes this defense go unless the Colts plan to repeat history.  We’ve had that player here before and it’s an important fit today as it was then, but finding a good undersized interior pass rusher is not the dilemma of running his defense.

 

That's exactly what I got from Rang's comments. 

 

Quote

Though he may still see plenty of time on the outside, the Colts see the three-year All-Big Ten honoree as a potential interior pass rush specialist at the three-technique defensive tackle position, the penetrating role critical to the 4-3 alignment's success. 

 

Or are you saying he's overselling Lewis' fit and importance? Because he does call him a specialist... 

[Archer]

On 7/7/2018 at 6:49 PM, CR91 said:

Nice read, but I feel like no one talks about fountain. The way he attacks the ball reminds me of hopkins

 

That’s my thought whenever someone talks up Cain.  We passed him up for Fountain in the 5th, and that should tell you a lot about their initial relative placement in the WR hierarchy.  I was a big fan of Fountain this draft season, and I see him as a superion prospect to Cain.  Of course, now I’m both payers’ biggest fan!

[ztboiler]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

That's exactly what I got from Rang's comments. 

 

 

Or are you saying he's overselling Lewis' fit and importance? Because he does call him a specialist... 

Right - he's overselling the importance of the undersized interior pass rusher to make this defense work.  Every nickel package plays about the same around the league, and looks for specialists who can make their rush package work.  To that end his fit isn't very unique in the league or even unique to how the Colts populated their roster in the heyday of the Tampa 2.

 

Rushing the passer on passing downs has never been the trouble spot for this defense.  You can be competent in this scheme with specialists, but you can't be elite without the right 3Tech.  Polian told us as much when he admitted he never found it.  It's the chess piece that influences the offensive play calling the most.  Little disruption from the 3Tech on first down and you take 5-8 yards for 2nd and short...and we all know the rest of the story with this scheme.

 

My exception with what Rang said is, I suppose, the posturing of insightful analysis about how it might help the Colts solve the puzzle with an under the radar chess piece.  It doesn't...but it might help us win if we can build a big lead in the second half.

[Superman]

22 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Right - he's overselling the importance of the undersized interior pass rusher to make this defense work.  Every nickel package plays about the same around the league, and looks for specialists who can make their rush package work.  To that end his fit isn't very unique in the league or even unique to how the Colts populated their roster in the heyday of the Tampa 2.

 

Rushing the passer on passing downs has never been the trouble spot for this defense.  You can be competent in this scheme with specialists, but you can't be elite without the right 3Tech.  Polian told us as much when he admitted he never found it.  It's the chess piece that influences the offensive play calling the most.  Little disruption from the 3Tech on first down and you take 5-8 yards for 2nd and short...and we all know the rest of the story with this scheme.

 

My exception with what Rang said is, I suppose, the posturing of insightful analysis about how it might help the Colts solve the puzzle with an under the radar chess piece.  It doesn't...but it might help us win if we can build a big lead in the second half.

 

Got it. So there's been discussion here about Lewis' role in the new defense, and I know there's concern that we'll go back to having undersized interior DL and won't be able to stop the run. For some, Lewis might represent those concerns. He might seem like the new Eric Foster. 

 

We don't really know what the coaches are going to do with this new defense, but at this point, I see Lewis the way Rang does: as an interior pass rusher on passing downs, not a full time 3 tech. I don't think he'll be a very good edge rusher, but I do see him potentially being disruptive on the inside. 

 

That's a different problem from not having strong interior DL play, particularly against the run. If they play Lewis inside on first down, that will be a problem. If he develops into an every down player, I think it will be as end on early downs, kicking inside on passing downs. Same for Autry. The Dungy defenses didn't have that player, besides Raheem Brock at times, who was maybe average at it.

 

I'm not worried about the interior DL play against the run. I think we have two versatile guys with potential to be disruptive 3 techs in Nunez-Roches and Ridgeway. And I think we have guys with 1-tech / nose ability in Woods and Stewart. However the depth chart shakes out, those guys are the key to the run defense. And if Lewis and Autry can give us some Michael Bennett-like impact in a hybrid role, that's a good thing. I'm assuming the staff knows those guys can't play interior DL every down.

[ztboiler]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Got it. So there's been discussion here about Lewis' role in the new defense, and I know there's concern that we'll go back to having undersized interior DL and won't be able to stop the run. For some, Lewis might represent those concerns. He might seem like the new Eric Foster. 

 

We don't really know what the coaches are going to do with this new defense, but at this point, I see Lewis the way Rang does: as an interior pass rusher on passing downs, not a full time 3 tech. I don't think he'll be a very good edge rusher, but I do see him potentially being disruptive on the inside. 

 

That's a different problem from not having strong interior DL play, particularly against the run. If they play Lewis inside on first down, that will be a problem. If he develops into an every down player, I think it will be as end on early downs, kicking inside on passing downs. Same for Autry. The Dungy defenses didn't have that player, besides Raheem Brock at times, who was maybe average at it.

 

I'm not worried about the interior DL play against the run. I think we have two versatile guys with potential to be disruptive 3 techs in Nunez-Roches and Ridgeway. And I think we have guys with 1-tech / nose ability in Woods and Stewart. However the depth chart shakes out, those guys are the key to the run defense. And if Lewis and Autry can give us some Michael Bennett-like impact in a hybrid role, that's a good thing. I'm assuming the staff knows those guys can't play interior DL every down.

Admittedly....I was really just using it as a passive aggressive opportunity to gripe about a scheme that I don't like much.

[krunk]

I believe Autry is going to make some noise in the middle on passing downs.  I like what I've seen of him.

[Superman]

31 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Admittedly....I was really just using it as a passive aggressive opportunity to gripe about a scheme that I don't like much.

 

So what's wrong with the scheme?

[krunk]

But for Tyquan Lewis, that early adjustment period could very well be abbreviated.

Not only is Lewis, an Ohio State product, remaining in Midwest, but by virtue of the Colts switching to a 4-3 base defense this offseason, he’ll be playing in almost the exact same scheme he mastered at the college level.

“Same exact defense we ran at Ohio State,” Lewis told reporters in May during the Colts’ rookie minicamp. “It’s pretty easy to get into. All the terminology is still almost the same, so it’s just like second nature.”

https://www.colts.com/news/tyquan-lewis-quickness-versatility-make-him-major-defensive-building-block

[krunk]

So basically Tyquan should have a very short learning curve.  Hopefully that allows him to challenge the other vets a lot faster than normal.

[Valpo2004]

On 7/7/2018 at 9:02 PM, Four2itus said:

This.....

 

"Though injuries sustained to quarterbacks may be a different story, many pocket passers (like Luck) are most hampered on a snap-to-snap basis by defenders in their face, rather than those screaming off the edges."

 

 

 

 

Absolutely you can't have a pocket passer if you can't create a pocket in the first place.  Only way you can create a pocket is by having the guys in the middle of the OL hold their positions.   Then the QB has room to step into his throws and step up into the pocket away from edge rushers.  

[ztboiler]

21 hours ago, Superman said:

 

So what's wrong with the scheme?

Some of it is just personal preference.  I don't like to watch it.  We'll let teams march up and down the field between the 20's before stiffening in the red zone.  We all know and lived the story.  I got my fill of it in the Manning years, and always thought it contributed to our inability to win multiple championships.  Ballard seems determined to recreate what he had in Chicago, and that's great if you find the pieces you need...but its a scheme that is too dependent on finding a superstar at 3Tech...exactly as Polian admitted in so many words.

 

One might say that we don't know yet what this version will look like....and that may turn out to be true, but all public commentary by coaches and Ballard has even included the Tampa 2 term along with "simplify" and "play fast" etc.  I much prefer what Zimmer runs in Minnesota.

 

Rant off.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, ztboiler said:

Some of it is just personal preference.  I don't like to watch it.  We'll let teams march up and down the field between the 20's before stiffening in the red zone.  We all know and lived the story.  I got my fill of it in the Manning years, and always thought it contributed to our inability to win multiple championships.  Ballard seems determined to recreate what he had in Chicago, and that's great if you find the pieces you need...but its a scheme that is too dependent on finding a superstar at 3Tech...exactly as Polian admitted in so many words.

 

One might say that we don't know yet what this version will look like....and that may turn out to be true, but all public commentary by coaches and Ballard has even included the Tampa 2 term along with "simplify" and "play fast" etc.  I much prefer what Zimmer runs in Minnesota.

 

Rant off.

 

Understood. I think this defense has a tendency to become too passive as well, and I definitely prefer Zimmer's man coverage with more blitzing. Still a 4 down alignment, but more aggressive. Also more difficult to run. And Zimmer, unlike the Colts, has good defensive players, and did with the Bengals as well.

 

For where the Colts are right now, I'm fine with the defensive approach. It's the easiest to staff and the easiest to play. I think the most important positions are rush end, 3 tech, and safety. The Colts actually have some promising players at those positions, so there's potential for a good defensive performance right away. And then the young guys at corner and linebacker can "play fast" in a "simple" defense -- run, hit, tackle, etc. 

 

And bigger picture, if you do have good pass rushers, good 3 techs and good safety play, this defense can be great. And you can still use replacement level players at corner and linebacker, especially when you don't want to give big second contracts to players in replaceable positions. 

 

The contrast with Zimmer's defense is you still need everything the Tampa defense needs, plus you need man corners (they're paying Rhodes $14m/year, and he's worth it) and off ball linebackers who can play man coverage (Eric Kendricks is the man, but he's going to price himself out of Minnesota in a couple years, IMO; I'm assuming they let Barr walk next year). And they still have highly paid DL and a highly paid safety. Even with Cousins, they're currently spending $8m more on defense than on offense, and have the 5th highest defensive payroll in the league. It costs a lot to run Zimmer's defense, and that's distinct from the question of how you find those players in the first place. It comes down to good drafting, like almost everything else.

 

To me, the problem with how Polian built the Dungy defenses is he didn't value 3 techs the way he said he did, especially on draft day. His first round philosophy was always 'do you score TDs, take the ball away, or sack the QB?' and he never reconciled that with the fact that good 3 techs do sack the QB. There's also the fact that interior pressure is very valuable as well. The highest pick he ever spent on an interior DL was #42 for Larry Tripplett (average at best), and then #56 for Fili Moala (underwhelming). So it's also fair to ask whether he knew how to scout a good 3 tech.

 

We'll see how the Colts defense turns out. If it winds up being a bland, conservative Dungy/Meeks defense that can't stop the run, then I'm with you. But if they can put good pass rushers, good 3 techs and good safety play on the field, and tackle well, then it doesn't have to be a repeat of the soft, Manning era defenses. 

[krunk]

One thing I like about what Ballard said was " We will always place priority on the defensive line". So it's clear he knows he needs real playmakers in that area to make this defense really tick. I'm assuming he knows we need better than Keyunta Dawson, Larry Tripplett, Fili Moala and the host of other guys from the Dungy Era that didn't cut it.

[ztboiler]

16 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Understood. I think this defense has a tendency to become too passive as well, and I definitely prefer Zimmer's man coverage with more blitzing. Still a 4 down alignment, but more aggressive. Also more difficult to run. And Zimmer, unlike the Colts, has good defensive players, and did with the Bengals as well.

 

For where the Colts are right now, I'm fine with the defensive approach. It's the easiest to staff and the easiest to play. I think the most important positions are rush end, 3 tech, and safety. The Colts actually have some promising players at those positions, so there's potential for a good defensive performance right away. And then the young guys at corner and linebacker can "play fast" in a "simple" defense -- run, hit, tackle, etc. 

 

And bigger picture, if you do have good pass rushers, good 3 techs and good safety play, this defense can be great. And you can still use replacement level players at corner and linebacker, especially when you don't want to give big second contracts to players in replaceable positions. 

 

The contrast with Zimmer's defense is you still need everything the Tampa defense needs, plus you need man corners (they're paying Rhodes $14m/year, and he's worth it) and off ball linebackers who can play man coverage (Eric Kendricks is the man, but he's going to price himself out of Minnesota in a couple years, IMO; I'm assuming they let Barr walk next year). And they still have highly paid DL and a highly paid safety. Even with Cousins, they're currently spending $8m more on defense than on offense, and have the 5th highest defensive payroll in the league. It costs a lot to run Zimmer's defense, and that's distinct from the question of how you find those players in the first place. It comes down to good drafting, like almost everything else.

 

To me, the problem with how Polian built the Dungy defenses is he didn't value 3 techs the way he said he did, especially on draft day. His first round philosophy was always 'do you score TDs, take the ball away, or sack the QB?' and he never reconciled that with the fact that good 3 techs do sack the QB. There's also the fact that interior pressure is very valuable as well. The highest pick he ever spent on an interior DL was #42 for Larry Tripplett (average at best), and then #56 for Fili Moala (underwhelming). So it's also fair to ask whether he knew how to scout a good 3 tech.

 

We'll see how the Colts defense turns out. If it winds up being a bland, conservative Dungy/Meeks defense that can't stop the run, then I'm with you. But if they can put good pass rushers, good 3 techs and good safety play on the field, and tackle well, then it doesn't have to be a repeat of the soft, Manning era defenses. 

Despite my negativity on the scheme, I’m bullish that Ballard will make his plan work at a very high competitive level.  He believes in it, wants a more player driven scheme and the strategic roster resource management advantages you referred to. I’m not bullish that it ever becomes a championship caliber defense unless they diversify the scheme more than I fear....and they very well may.

 

The scheme isn’t limited to the way Dungy ran it...and I’m hopeful we can take it up a notch.

 

[Defjamz26]

Interesting read. Of all the articles I’ve read on our draft class, never have I read one that highlighted Tyquan Lewis as the potential guides gym of the class.