Peyton To Sf Is Our Best Bet

[Warhorse]

"Look, we all know Peyton's time here is up -- as hard as it is to say."

This reeks of...."please come agree with me". Many of us don't.....please set down the "we", and slowly back away.

[JTcardscolts]

"Look, we all know Peyton's time here is up -- as hard as it is to say."

This reeks of...."please come agree with me". Many of us don't.....please set down the "we", and slowly back away.

Awkward.....lol

[pacolts56]

Look, we all know Peyton's time here is up -- as hard as it is to say. After looking at things, I think SF makes the most sense. The ONLY piece they are missing is a legit QB....they'll push hard for Peyton. Now, I think Jim Harbaugh likes his picks so it's easier to imagine players traded. With the emergence of NaVorro Bowman this year, I could see the niners viewing Pat Willis as expendable. So I think they would be willing to part ways with Willis, an aging Frank Gore, and their rookie Aldon Smith to make the deal fair. Manning + Reggie for Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, and Franke Gore? I could definitely see this happening. It almost makes TOO MUCH sense. Thoughts??

Aside from the totally unacceptable 38m cap hit..... I'm not convinced the 49ers should part with 2 young and very key elements of that defense.

A substitute punt returner's foul ups were the main thing that did them in against the Giants..... so IMO you don't mess with a team strength, especially an excellent defense.

Busting up that defense, even for Peyton and Reggie.... with track teams like New Orleans and Green Bay in your conference could amount to 1 step forward 2 steps back.

If you need some more offensive production then deal with it some other way..... chase Peyton or Matt Flynn in free agency.

[ColtsBlueFL]

If Peyton gets released, I see the Cardinal, Titans, Dolphins, and Redskins as being most viable landing zones. Arizona remembers what Kurt Warner did for them. Titans always get our folks that get set free. Miami looking for Marino replacement forever. and Washington has always spent huge sums, and has Rex Grossman. I think Alex Smith finally getting a consistent scheme is showing he can improve and flourish in a system. I don't think they'll mess with it unless his agent demands elite QB money.

It's tough to say whether Peyton gets the 28 million and stays or not. If he does, it means he paid was 54 million dollars for not even playing football, and not knowing if he'll ever take another snap while earning even more in late summer, early fall. And the Colts are on the hook for that big contract for years. I think it is very ironic that THE GUY that made this franchise, can also be THE GUY to break it again too. That's powerful.

So folks can say it's not about the money, but it is.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Agree or disagree but here is how I see it playing out. The only thing I'm not sold on is the final destination.

• Manning's days here are done.
  
• He will not be traded. He will not receive the option bonus, we cannot trade him otherwise and it would cripple the cap to do so after the fact to the tune of 38.4 million in dead cap space.
  
• He likely wants no part of Andrew Luck and would prefer the pick used on the USC lineman or Blackmon, or traded for a package of picks that would help his final years. Irsay is set on Luck.
  
• Manning is released, the Colts draft Luck.
  
• Manning & Wayne could become a packaged deal in either Miami, New York, Arizona, Tennessee, or San Fran, maybe a couple of other lesser options. If we release Clark as some advocate then he could join that package as well.
  

[Demon]

I'd like to see Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Stafford in the same conference. Hope it happens if he doesn't stay with the Colts.

[Peyton and Eli fan]

Agree or disagree but here is how I see it playing out. The only thing I'm not sold on is the final destination.

• Manning's days here are done.
  
• He will not be traded. He will not receive the option bonus, we cannot trade him otherwise.
  
• He likely wants no part of Andrew Luck and would prefer the pick used on the USC lineman or Blackmon, or traded for a package of picks that would help his final years. Irsay is set on Luck.
  
• Manning is released, the Colts draft Luck.
  
• Manning & Wayne could become a packaged deal in either Miami, New York, Arizona, Tennessee, or San Fran, maybe a couple of other lesser options. If we release Clark as some advocate then he could join that package as well.
  

I'm afraid I agree though it's not what I would prefer. I'll throw in Saturday's retirement.

[BProland85]

we would have to pay him the $28 million bonus before we would be allowed by league rules to trade him... we will not trade Peyton, dont you see that? sheesh. If we dont pay the bonus, we not only save the entire $28million, but also save nearly another $7million from the salary cap....so by trading him, not only would we not have Peyton, but we would have another $35million dollars on the books! Your plan makes no sense.

I agree with others that if we let him go, he would likely end up in Arizona. They play in a dome, have good WRs a good TE, good RB, good O-Line and a pretty good D... and since they finished 8-8 last year, it wouldnt look as much like he was just jumping aboard for an easy ring like it would if he went to the 49ers

Well remember, that the 35 million is not all cap hits, only roughly 7 million of that money is a cap hit. So the other amount comes directly from Irsay's pockets and you never know Irsay paid him once before and got nothing back in return(last year). So he could opt to pay him the 28 million dollars just so that we can get a lot in return back for him in a trade. So basically he would be paying 28 million dollars to bring back talent from another team, right? If you can get a lot back for him, why not try that and load up your team for the future while taking a cap hit for this year.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Well remember, that the 35 million is not all cap hits, only roughly 7 million of that money is a cap hit. So the other amount comes directly from Irsay's pockets and you never know Irsay paid him once before and got nothing back in return(last year). So he could opt to pay him the 28 million dollars just so that we can get a lot in return back for him in a trade. So basically he would be paying 28 million dollars to bring back talent from another team, right? If you can get a lot back for him, why not try that and load up your team for the future while taking a cap hit for this year.

The 28 million would count against the cap, it's just spread out over the life of the contract but if we were to pay it and trade him, it would accelerate along with 10.4 from his original signing bonus into 2012 which is why it would cripple the cap. If the cap hit was only 7 million then trading him would be an acceptable option.

He will not be traded.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'm afraid I agree though it's not what I would prefer. I'll throw in Saturday's retirement.

I could see that happening, but I could also see him joining 18 wherever as well for a final year or two.

[mrati2d]

That's hard to say. Irsay has said that if Peyton is healthy, he will remain here. He has also said the issue is not about the money, but rather about his health.

He did say this, but he is also making it a point to dispute what the doctors are saying about his health. IMO(which could be way off) the decision has been made, Irsay is just hoping his health can be blamed so he doesnt look like the bad guy

[18Manning]

Not everyone understands everything regarding trades, caps, etc. Why don't we use our "nice words" to explain why this idea is not feasible instead of suggesting the idea is stupid, etc.

[Peyton and Eli fan]

He did say this, but he is also making it a point to dispute what the doctors are saying about his health. IMO(which could be way off) the decision has been made, Irsay is just hoping his health can be blamed so he doesnt look like the bad guy

bingo

[geinsteder]

Exactly

[BleedingBlue]

Alex smith didn't lose that game.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Well remember, that the 35 million is not all cap hits, only roughly 7 million of that money is a cap hit. So the other amount comes directly from Irsay's pockets and you never know Irsay paid him once before and got nothing back in return(last year). So he could opt to pay him the 28 million dollars just so that we can get a lot in return back for him in a trade. So basically he would be paying 28 million dollars to bring back talent from another team, right? If you can get a lot back for him, why not try that and load up your team for the future while taking a cap hit for this year.

Sorry, this is not correct. Peyton Manning's contract had $51million in bonuses. 20million dollar signing bonus (which is spread evenly over the full 5 years of the contract), a 3million dollar roster bonus in 2011 (all against the 2011 cap) and an upcoming 28million dollar option bonus, the cap hit of which will be spread over the 4 years still remaining. Peyton has already received 23 million, but only 7 has counted against the cap. That is 16 million dead cap outstanding right now. If Peyton is released, we have to take that 16 mil against our cap over the next two years. Period.

OTOH, say we pay the 28 million option roster bonus. That makes it 44 million outstanding. No way we can release Peyton in any fashion after that and before the 2012 season, as we have to take a 44 million dead cap hit over two years. Not happening. During the 2012 season, 11 million comes off still leaving outstanding balance of 33 million at the end. End of 2013 leaves 22 million dead cap if we cut or trade him. Still 11 million left at the end 0f 2014.

So... if we don't release Peyton by the 8th of March and we do pay Peyton the 28 million, he will play. Or hold a clipboard until he retires. We can't afford any other option at that point.

[21isSuperman]

He did say this, but he is also making it a point to dispute what the doctors are saying about his health. IMO(which could be way off) the decision has been made, Irsay is just hoping his health can be blamed so he doesnt look like the bad guy

This is what I understood from it. Independent doctors have cleared Peyton to play, but the Colts team doctors have not. When he meets with the Colts docs, they will check him out and put him through a physical and see if he can play by their standards. Colts docs haven't cleared him, but independent docs have. That's what I got from it

[doogansquest]

How do we know his time here is up? The ONLY way he's gone from Indianapolis is if he can't play anymore. If that's the case, no team is going to take him.

[UndecidedFrog]

Not everyone understands everything regarding trades, caps, etc. Why don't we use our "nice words" to explain why this idea is not feasible instead of suggesting the idea is stupid, etc.

LOL, our nice words indeed. I will attempt this. All $ are in millions.

Current PM contract:

Term of contract = 5 years

2011: $20 signing bonus* + $3 roster bonus + $3.4 annual salary = $26.4 real dollars

2012: $28 option bonus* + $7.4 annual salary = $35.4 real dollars

2013: $8.4 annual salary = $8.4 real dollars

2014: $9.4 annual salary = $9.4 real dollars

2015: $10.4 annual salary = $10.4 real dollars

Total over term of contract = $90 real dollars

* are items that become pro-rated over the term of the contract for determining salary cap hits.

Signing bonus pro-ration: $20/5 years = $4 each year for 5 years

Option bonus pro-ration: $28/5 years = $5.6 each year for 5 years

2011: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* +$3 roster bonus + $3.4 annual salary = $16 cap hit

2012: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $7.4 annual salary = $17 cap hit

2013: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $8.4 annual salary = $18 cap hit

2014: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* + $9.4 annual salary = $19 cap hit

2015: $4 pro-rated portion of signing bonus* + $5.6 pro-rated portion of option bonus* +$10.4 annual salary = $20 cap hit

Total over term of contract = $90 cap hit

If the contract is terminated prior to expiry (before end of 2015 season), all the prorated portions not already accounted for in prior years cap hits will accelerate forward and hit the cap at the time when termination occurs (if before June 1 of that year, 100% to that year. If after June 1 of that year, 50% to that year, and 50% to the next year).

Example: Pay PM his option bonus $28 due March 8, and in May 30, 2012, PM is released or retires, terminating the contract earlier than expiration. This will trigger the acceleration of all unaccounted pro-rations forward to 2012.

Therefore the 2012 salary cap hit will be: $16 unaccounted pro-rated signing bonus portions + $22.4 unaccounted pro-rated option bonus portions = $38.4

Example: Don't pay PM the option bonus, and release him now. This will trigger the acceleration of all uncaccounted pro-rations forward to 2012:

Therefore the 2012 salary cap hit will be: $16 unaccounted pro-rated signing bonus portion - $5.6 credit for pro-rated option bonus accounted for in 2011, but was never actually paid = $10.4

I appeal to those knowledgeable about such matters to chime in and say that I have got this correct, so that others may rely on this information as correct.

[WSO]

How do we know his time here is up? The ONLY way he's gone from Indianapolis is if he can't play anymore. If that's the case, no team is going to take him.

Not necessarily. Its a 28million decision for the Colts but not for anyone else. Other teams can take a risk on Manning and it won't affect them as much as the Colts. Even if Manning is not healthy by march 8th, some team(s) out there will take a chance, bring him in to see what he looks like and may offer him a contract hoping he will return to 100% before the season. Its less riskier for them because it can be a 1 year contract for a smaller amount as opposed to the Colts being stuck with his contract for a few years, taking a bigger cap hit each year.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Very nice UndecidedFrog, I just reported on the impact of the bonuses, you even include salary if paid the 28. These are real numbers, and real dollar. Always been worht it with a perfectly healthy Manning. Now... not so sure anymore.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Sorry, this is not correct. Peyton Manning's contract had $51million in bonuses. 20million dollar signing bonus (which is spread evenly over the full 5 years of the contract), a 3million dollar roster bonus in 2011 (all against the 2011 cap) and an upcoming 28million dollar option bonus, the cap hit of which will be spread over the 4 years still remaining. Peyton has already received 23 million, but only 7 has counted against the cap. That is 16 million dead cap outstanding right now. If Peyton is released, we have to take that 16 mil against our cap over the next two years. Period.

OTOH, say we pay the 28 million option roster bonus. That makes it 44 million outstanding. No way we can release Peyton in any fashion after that and before the 2012 season, as we have to take a 44 million dead cap hit over two years. Not happening. During the 2012 season, 11 million comes off still leaving outstanding balance of 33 million at the end. End of 2013 leaves 22 million dead cap if we cut or trade him. Still 11 million left at the end 0f 2014.

So... if we don't release Peyton by the 8th of March and we do pay Peyton the 28 million, he will play. Or hold a clipboard until he retires. We can't afford any other option at that point.

This isn't 100% accurate either but much closer than the poster.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Yes, if released after the 28mil is paid, but before the season, it is something like 38+ mil spread over 2 years. I added 2011 pro-rated extra in twice. Still, a prohibitive cap hit for a player not on the roster. U.Frog did a much more detailed analysis, I just wanted to quickly throw the big numbers out the. I should have double checked addition, I wasn't interested in salary because I know if paid the 28, he has to stay on board. It was moot IMHO.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Some people are more visual in understanding things. So hopefully this will help some have a better understanding. I had my brother look over it and he made a suggestion or two and in the end it's more informative.

[pacolts56]

Some people are more visual in understanding things. So hopefully this will help some have a better understanding. I had my brother look over it and he made a suggestion or two and in the end it's more informative.

Excellent product there FJC..... do you mind if I reuse that? I have a devil of a time explaining it to friends.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Excellent product there FJC..... do you mind if I reuse that? I have a devil of a time explaining it to friends.

go for it... The more people that can understand it the better. There is just so much misinformation and misinterpretation out there and often times it's nobody's fault but the one providing it.

[jwilli69]

If Peyton gets released, I see the Cardinal, Titans, Dolphins, and Redskins as being most viable landing zones. Arizona remembers what Kurt Warner did for them. Titans always get our folks that get set free. Miami looking for Marino replacement forever. and Washington has always spent huge sums, and has Rex Grossman. I think Alex Smith finally getting a consistent scheme is showing he can improve and flourish in a system. I don't think they'll mess with it unless his agent demands elite QB money.

It's tough to say whether Peyton gets the 28 million and stays or not. If he does, it means he paid was 54 million dollars for not even playing football, and not knowing if he'll ever take another snap while earning even more in late summer, early fall. And the Colts are on the hook for that big contract for years. I think it is very ironic that THE GUY that made this franchise, can also be THE GUY to break it again too. That's powerful.

So folks can say it's not about the money, but it is.

You are right in a sense that it is about the money but it is also tied to his ability to play on that contract. Not able to play or uncertainty to play on that contract certainly means the Colts will part ways, any team would/should do the same thing, it is cap/cash suicide to do pay that contract out not knowing what lies ahead. If there was another QB with this issue to have something to compare it to, they may be more willing toaccept risk but there is none so health=paid contract, uncertain health=no money spent.

Not everyone understands everything regarding trades, caps, etc. Why don't we use our "nice words" to explain why this idea is not feasible instead of suggesting the idea is stupid, etc.

Because even the nice words don't help those who can't understand the simple terms of this issue and continue to live in Madden world or just like to argue for the sake of it.

Alex smith didn't lose that game.

Why, was the defense throwing the ball inaccurately in the crunch time of the 4th Q? Cause it looked a lot like Alex Smith doing that. Too inconsistant for me but maybe a second year in a system will be a new world of good to him. I like that team.

[SimpleMan49004]

I think the Colts should trade away the first round pick for a later round + some D-line. Andrew Luck was great....in college. Remember Ryan Leaf? Keep Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. You know what he is capable of and you know you can get a good QB a dime a dozen nowadays. Brady wasnt #1, or even close for that matter. Build up that defense, keep the man that put Indianapolis back on the map and go win some championships.

[chad72]

Some people are more visual in understanding things. So hopefully this will help some have a better understanding. I had my brother look over it and he made a suggestion or two and in the end it's more informative.

Outstanding , pretty clear.

Option 2 probably what Irsay is thinking, IMO (releasing before March 8th) if Peyton is not healthy.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Outstanding , pretty clear.

Option 2 probably what Irsay is thinking, IMO (releasing before March 8th) if Peyton is not healthy.

That to me is the only realistic option considering there are still questions surrounding Manning.

[WSO]

Alex smith didn't lose that game.

Yes. The defense played great. Even though the special teams had 2 fumbles. After the 1st one, the game was still tied. Smith had 3 or 4 chances to drive down to get a FG (it was 17-17). The defense had done a great job stopping Eli and the Giants from getting a FG.

When you go 1-13 on 3rd down, you can't blame anyone but the offense. And when the offense gets the blame, its the quarterback. Smith had some bad throws at the feet of receivers on the last few drives.

[18Manning]

You are right in a sense that it is about the money but it is also tied to his ability to play on that contract. Not able to play or uncertainty to play on that contract certainly means the Colts will part ways, any team would/should do the same thing, it is cap/cash suicide to do pay that contract out not knowing what lies ahead. If there was another QB with this issue to have something to compare it to, they may be more willing toaccept risk but there is none so health=paid contract, uncertain health=no money spent.

Because even the nice words don't help those who can't understand the simple terms of this issue and continue to live in Madden world or just like to argue for the sake of it.

Why, was the defense throwing the ball inaccurately in the crunch time of the 4th Q? Cause it looked a lot like Alex Smith doing that. Too inconsistant for me but maybe a second year in a system will be a new world of good to him. I like that team.

So a curt approach helps those that don't understand understand more? Make sense to me...

If you know someone is predisposed to being argumentative, then I'm with you. Perhaps the original poster is in that category, but based on this particular post, I didn't see it. Either way, UndecidedFrog and firejimcaldwell did an excellent job (without being curt) of explaining how it all works. I understand more than most, but I know a lot of people that have no clue. They shouldn't be berated or made to feel stupid because of their lack of knowledge.

[OldManP]

I think the Colts should trade away the first round pick for a later round + some D-line. Andrew Luck was great....in college. Remember Ryan Leaf? Keep Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. You know what he is capable of and you know you can get a good QB a dime a dozen nowadays. Brady wasnt #1, or even close for that matter. Build up that defense, keep the man that put Indianapolis back on the map and go win some championships.

Next year will be Manning's 15 season under contract with the Colts. We've been to the SB twice, with one victory. Your talk about "championships" (plural) is glossing over the fact that he's getting old, and the Colts will need a replacement. Good QBs are not a dime a dozen, as our 3 cents worth showed this past season. The Colts have a chance to draft a great player, they can't throw it away to win "championships" with a 36 year old Peyton Manning after major surgery.

[bayone]

A trade is not possible. The Colts would have to pay Manning the $28 mil. and then trade him, that would cause a tremendous cap hit. The only other way is for Manning to push back the date for the $28 mil. and then trade him. I do not see why he would do that since all that would do is to weaken his future team.

agree, if peyton keeps date , forces Irsay hand to resign or cut him, once cut he can then be free to choose the team among the suitors as opposed to having Iirsay trade him somewhere he doesnt want to go

[bayone]

I think the Colts should trade away the first round pick for a later round + some D-line. Andrew Luck was great....in college. Remember Ryan Leaf? Keep Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. You know what he is capable of and you know you can get a good QB a dime a dozen nowadays. Brady wasnt #1, or even close for that matter. Build up that defense, keep the man that put Indianapolis back on the map and go win some championships.

Agree, u will never have a team willing to give so much for 1 pick, we can get many a choice player this year and next and take a qb later or we can use picks to trade for a good draft one next year, will be many supposedly

[betheafan41]

Its pointless to talk about a trade because Manning CAN NOT be traded. even if they pick up his 28 million the cap hit alone for trading him would hurt the colts, and they would be better off just keeping him.

plus i dont see him going to san fran. their talking about extending alex Smith, and are comftorble with him being their starter. Now to Arizona would be more like it, where he would team up with Fitz.

[Susie Q]

This is what I understood from it. Independent doctors have cleared Peyton to play, but the Colts team doctors have not. When he meets with the Colts docs, they will check him out and put him through a physical and see if he can play by their standards. Colts docs haven't cleared him, but independent docs have. That's what I got from it

Well superman the article I read said one of the Colts doctors Dr Feurer ( think that was the name ) also cleared him to play. It was the first article that was in a post here on the board so when it's being said that the Colts doctors haven't cleared him that is where I'm confused. There are so many things being said it has my head spinning.

[BProland85]

The 28 million would count against the cap, it's just spread out over the life of the contract but if we were to pay it and trade him, it would accelerate along with 10.4 from his original signing bonus into 2012 which is why it would cripple the cap. If the cap hit was only 7 million then trading him would be an acceptable option.

He will not be traded.

Then why in the world did Irsay agree to this *ic contract which hamstrings the Colts?

[BProland85]

Some people are more visual in understanding things. So hopefully this will help some have a better understanding. I had my brother look over it and he made a suggestion or two and in the end it's more informative.

If this is indeed accurate, I see no other option than to cut Manning before March 8th, and go with Andrew Luck. Its time for us to stop dishing out these bogus contracts which hamstring us for future possibilities, and that needs to start by cutting Manning and be free of his cap hits starting 2013. We can use the money saved from not having him on the roster by going out and getting STAR free agents like Carl Nicks.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Then why in the world did Irsay agree to this *ic contract which hamstrings the Colts?

Well, he wanted to make him the highest paid player in the NFL, and from the way it sounded late summer, it could have been much higher/worse.

The structure is far better than if the 20+28 would have been in one signing bonus.

No doubt it could be better, but it could easily be worse as well.