bpa

[akcolt]

Their records were better than almost every team in history.

Their playoff results weren't

[gacker65]

Just as I thought....

 

I took no shot at you or your position.

 

And yet you felt the need to take a shot at me.

 

That was.....   predictable.

 

Next time you wonder why I don't get into debates with you,   think back to this exchange......

Not personal shot.  Just tired of pointing out the obvious and told I do not know what I am talking about.

[NewColtsFan]

Not personal shot.  Just tired of pointing out the obvious and told I do not know what I am talking about.

 

 

Would you like to hi-lite the part where I told you that you do not know what you're talking about?

 

I simply said we see the same thing differently.    I've said the same thing to others.

 

Not sure I can say "we disagree" more politely?

[scooter4910]

No. Because there's at least a dozen threads this is being discussed in. Mods just need to merge them all into a thead titled...The I am a better arm chair GM than a pro GM thread.

Obviously not or the mods would have done it.

[scooter4910]

The Richardson trade was out of need, which basically craps on the whole theory of using need as the determining factor since it was by far the worst use of a 1st on that list.

True, we went after a RB because we had a need....but to the front office Trent was the best RB available.

 

But like I and others tried to point out, would we have taken another QB, punter, kicker in the first if they were the BPA? Would we have taken 6 more WR's if WR was the BPA during each of the following rounds?

 

The answer (even though everyone hates to admit it) is no. Grigson would have his head handed to him on a platter if he had done that. Now if Belicheck had done it he could probably get away with it but he has earned that privilege.

 

So I'm really unsure what all the hyperventilating and gnashing of the teeth is about. There is no such thing as pure need or BPA. We wouldn't waste a pick on something we truly didn't need (QB, kicker, etc) and we don't select based upon pure BPA or we would have selected players with issues that Grigs said we wouldn't draft in the first four rounds.

[ruksak]

BPA has given us 13 players since 2012 still on roster, out of 21 picked (5 of which were 7th rounders). 2012 was a great draft, would've been better if not for Brazil's sudden off-the-field burn out. 

 

I'm not sure a case can be made as of yet that Grig's philosophy is flawed in any way. Quite the opposite, actually. 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianapolis_Colts_draft_history#2012_Draft

[scooter4910]

BPA has given us 13 players since 2012 still on roster, out of 21 picked (5 of which were 7th rounders). 2012 was a great draft, would've been better if not for Brazil's sudden off-the-field burn out. 

 

I'm not sure a case can be made as of yet that Grig's philosophy is flawed in any way. Quite the opposite, actually. 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indianapolis_Colts_draft_history#2012_Draft

Does that include today's releases? And there's really no way of knowing if we had drafted based upon need that we might not have 14+ still on the team. How many stars have we picked up since 2012 using BPA? A hand full? Would probably be hard to distinguish between BPA and need recruits amongst the remaining average/below average players at this point.

[csmopar]

Obviously not or the mods would have done it.

Then obviously you need to go back to school to learn to read... this discussion is everywhere...

[Steamboat_Shaun]

Year 1 - Andrew Luck (Grigs really had no input, decision already made)

Year 2 - Bjorn Werner

Year 3 - Trent Richardson

Year 4 - Phillip Dorsett

 

Ummm....yeah....not really sure this BPA thing is really working for us. Maybe we should try the need route instead.

 

2 and 3 were all about needs, and not BPA. We really needed a pass-rush with Freeney's departure, so Grigson rolled the dice on Werner, again, out of need. Trent was acquired out of necessity as well, considering our RB corps consisted of Donald Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw after Ballard got injured. So in my opinion, the Dorsett pick is the only time Grigson has gone the BPA route in the first round.

[Buck Showalter]

Man my brain hurts reading this stuff...

What fans can't understand about the Dorsett pick boggles my mind...

 

He was obviously very highly rated on Grigs board, Grigs feels the kid has that something extra & rare speed, in an era where the Colts will likely be picking very late in each round of the draft, if you get what you feel is a game changer fall to you, you pull the trigger...

 

It is really that easy...

BPA more easily applies to the first and maybe second rounds where top tier talent more directly seperates from the majority of the "solid" players, its the wheat from the chaff analogy...

[scooter4910]

2 and 3 were all about needs, and not BPA. We really needed a pass-rush with Freeney's departure, so Grigson rolled the dice on Werner, again, out of need. Trent was acquired out of necessity as well, considering our RB corps consisted of Donald Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw after Ballard got injured. So in my opinion, the Dorsett pick is the only time Grigson has gone the BPA route in the first round.

So BPA is a recent phenomenon with Grigs? hmmm.

 

Does he announce what he's going to do each year? I missed the press conference.

[scooter4910]

Then obviously you need to go back to school to learn to read... this discussion is everywhere...

oooohh....now with the personal attacks! Very nice.

 

Better make sure you clear that browser history before your mom gets home.

[ruksak]

Does that include today's releases? And there's really no way of knowing if we had drafted based upon need that we might not have 14+ still on the team. How many stars have we picked up since 2012 using BPA? A hand full? Would probably be hard to distinguish between BPA and need recruits amongst the remaining average/below average players at this point.

After 3 years, a round 4 player still being on the team is about 54%, and it goes down exponentially for each round below, and exponentially up for each round above. 

 

Most of the 13 players still with our team from 2012-2014 are 4th round or higher. Meaning Grigson's retention rate for 4th round and higher picks is above average. 

 

 

Like, love, or hate the Dorsett pick, Grigson's plan is working well. Last years draft was FUBAR due to the unfortunate Trent trade and other factors, we didn't have a 1st or a 4th round pick. I'd say Grigson is doing fantastic. I trust him, despite myself really wanting Brown with our #29. 

[scooter4910]

After 3 years, a round 4 player still being on the team is about 54%, and it goes down exponentially for each round below, and exponentially up for each round above. 

 

Most of the 13 players still with our team from 2012-2014 are 4th round or higher. Meaning Grigson's retention rate for 4th round and higher picks is above average. 

 

 

Like, love, or hate the Dorsett pick, Grigson's plan is working well. Last years draft was FUBAR due to the unfortunate Trent trade and other factors, we didn't have a 1st or a 4th round pick. I'd say Grigson is doing fantastic. I trust him, despite myself really wanting Brown with our #29. 

I'm not denying your numbers/stats...but if Grigs utilizes almost exclusively BPA (based upon what everyone is saying) then we really have no data to compare if he had drafted based upon need exclusively.

 

Have any stats about retention rates from teams that draft based upon need for comparison?

[ColtsBlueFL]

Actually he's not.  Dorsett is a poor route runner and has hands problems, same as Moncrief.  Try again.

 

Says who?  To counter you cut 'n paste of some blogger, I'll cut n paste some comments fromSouts Inc.-

 

"Drop percentage is outstanding. Shows good focus in traffic. Can open up and adjust to balls thrown outside frame. Tracks deep ball well. Can extend and make over-shoulder catches. Catches ball in stride."   Rated above average in Ball skills.  Ranked #27 overall player. 

 

Graded Exceptional in Big Play Ability-

 

"Legit burner. Gets from 0-to-60 in a flash and shows second gear to chase down deep ball. Has speed to take top off of defense. Not overly elusive and doesn't break many tackles, but still a homerun threat with ball in hand. Transitions quickly after catch and if he catches daylight, it's over."

[ruksak]

 

Have any stats about retention rates from teams that draft based upon need for comparison?

That's splitting hairs and I doubt any sensible stats could be extrapolated easily. That would require some intensive work to find and disseminate. 

 

Either way, this draft was the most important of Grig's young career IMO. How this draft shakes out 3-4 years from now will be how he is judged, if I can be so bold. 

[ruksak]

Says who?  To counter you cut 'n paste of some blogger, I'll cut n paste some comments fromSouts Inc.-

 

"Drop percentage is outstanding. Shows good focus in traffic. Can open up and adjust to balls thrown outside frame. Tracks deep ball well. Can extend and make over-shoulder catches. Catches ball in stride."   Rated above average in Ball skills.  Ranked #27 overall player. 

 

Graded Exceptional in Big Play Ability-

 

"Legit burner. Gets from 0-to-60 in a flash and shows second gear to chase down deep ball. Has speed to take top off of defense. Not overly elusive and doesn't break many tackles, but still a homerun threat with ball in hand. Transitions quickly after catch and if he catches daylight, it's over."

Vouch. Every legit breakdown I've seen about #16 says he's anything but a butterfingered stumbler. 

[jvan1973]

Actually he's not. Dorsett is a poor route runner and has hands problems, same as Moncrief. Try again.

Where are you getting that breakdown? He doesn't have bad hands.... at all

[ruksak]

Where are you getting that breakdown? He doesn't have bad hands.... at all

He has an inside man with the info .....

 

[scooter4910]

That's splitting hairs and I doubt any sensible stats could be extrapolated easily. That would require some intensive work to find and disseminate. 

 

Either way, this draft was the most important of Grig's young career IMO. How this draft shakes out 3-4 years from now will be how he is judged, if I can be so bold. 

Not to be nitpicky but I assumed this was a pro/con BPA topic. You did provide good data but it still doesn't clear up whether Grig's BPA strategy is better/worse than a needs based draft. Of the 22 players that have been drafted since 2012, 8 are no longer with us and 3 more (Chapman, Ballard and Thornton) may/may not make it this year? If they get cut Grig's has a 50% retention rate. Not ideal in my mind but that may be the league average.....I don't know.

[gacker65]

Says who?  To counter you cut 'n paste of some blogger, I'll cut n paste some comments fromSouts Inc.-

 

"Drop percentage is outstanding. Shows good focus in traffic. Can open up and adjust to balls thrown outside frame. Tracks deep ball well. Can extend and make over-shoulder catches. Catches ball in stride."   Rated above average in Ball skills.  Ranked #27 overall player. 

 

Graded Exceptional in Big Play Ability-

 

"Legit burner. Gets from 0-to-60 in a flash and shows second gear to chase down deep ball. Has speed to take top off of defense. Not overly elusive and doesn't break many tackles, but still a homerun threat with ball in hand. Transitions quickly after catch and if he catches daylight, it's over."

Basically a deep threat.  Has problems short and intermediate routes, on his tapes and all over CBSSport and NFL.Com to name a few.  Will need a few years to get his route running down.  Right now a one trick pony.

[ruksak]

Not to be nitpicky but I assumed this was a pro/con BPA topic. You did provide good data but it still doesn't clear up whether Grig's BPA strategy is better/worse than a needs based draft. Of the 22 players that have been drafted since 2012, 8 are no longer with us and 3 more (Chapman, Ballard and Thornton) may/may not make it this year? If they get cut Grig's has a 50% retention rate. Not ideal in my mind but that may be the league average.....I don't know.

The proof is in the puddin'

 

We have gone from disaster to a Grigs GM'd team that takes a step forward every year, literally. This is a conversation mired in semantics, and the only thing that will be the judge of this, is history. For that we must wait. 

[gacker65]

Where are you getting that breakdown? He doesn't have bad hands.... at all

Watched tape and noticed short and intermediate route, he tends to body catch, like Moncrief.  Read NFL.Com, CBSSport, and Walters.  Reviewed tapes again and continued to see it.  Noticed he was a poor route runner on short and intermediate routes (had trouble getting open) (see T.Y.).

[ColtsBlueFL]

But like I and others tried to point out, would we have taken another QB, punter, kicker in the first if they were the BPA? Would we have taken 6 more WR's if WR was the BPA during each of the following rounds?

 

The answer (even though everyone hates to admit it) is no. Grigson would have his head handed to him on a platter if he had done that. Now if Belicheck had done it he could probably get away with it but he has earned that privilege.

 

QB's can only be BPA in round 1. Round 1 franchise potential QB's don't 'fall'to teams with a franchise QB later in the round.  If they did, you trade the pick to a team desperate to get that guy.  All other QB's are journeyman backups other teams needing a franchise QB take a chance on in later rounds.  Punters almost never grade to BPA.  Except, yeah, Ray Guy.  Picked round 1, overall #23.  Dude went on to be a six-time NFL All-Pro.  And eventually, the first (and only) punter inducted into the Hall of Fame. I remember non-HOF Mike Scifres (along with Sproles) completely tore the Colts up in a playoff game, Jan 2009 I think. So if Grigson finds the next Ray Guy (or better, only)  and he truly grades a round 1 prospect..   well what can I tell you...  But let's be real.  The chances a franchise QB falls deep (trade it!!) or the Next Ray Guy pops up (ok, maybe worth theis almost nil.  So let's get back on track to more real possibilities...

[scooter4910]

The proof is in the puddin'

 

We have gone from disaster to a Grigs GM'd team that takes a step forward every year, literally. This is a conversation mired in semantics, and the only thing that will be the judge of this, is history. For that we must wait. 

I hate waiting.....heard the same thing in 12, 13 & 14.

[ColtsBlueFL]

I'm not denying your numbers/stats...but if Grigs utilizes almost exclusively BPA (based upon what everyone is saying) then we really have no data to compare if he had drafted based upon need exclusively.

 

Have any stats about retention rates from teams that draft based upon need for comparison?

 

If you want that info, I'd start by tracking the Falcons drafts since Mike Smith arrived there...

[scooter4910]

QB's can only be BPA in round 1. Round 1 franchise potential QB's don't 'fall'to teams with a franchise QB later in the round.  If they did, you trade the pick to a team desperate to get that guy.  All other QB's are journeyman backups other teams needing a franchise QB take a chance on in later rounds.  Punters almost never grade to BPA.  Except, yeah, Ray Guy.  Picked round 1, overall #23.  Dude went on to be a six-time NFL All-Pro.  And eventually, the first (and only) punter inducted into the Hall of Fame. I remember non-HOF Mike Scifres (along with Sproles) completely tore the Colts up in a playoff game, Jan 2009 I think. So if Grigson finds the next Ray Guy (or better, only)  and he truly grades a round 1 prospect..   well what can I tell you...  But let's be real.  The chances a franchise QB falls deep (trade it!!) or the Next Ray Guy pops up (ok, maybe worth theis almost nil.  So let's get back on track to more real possibilities...

Just showing the absurdity of the strict adherence to BPA. We had a very strong WR class this year which could have fallen somewhat in this manner. So what would we do, keep trading down until we select 14 rookies in round 7 (with half being cut at camp) or trade "up" and take a need. We wouldn't trade up for BPA.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Basically a deep threat.  Has problems short and intermediate routes, on his tapes and all over CBSSport and NFL.Com to name a few.  Will need a few years to get his route running down.  Right now a one trick pony.

Nope, he has the speed to draw away from defenders on slants and crossing routes. Drives defenders deep because of his burst and speed. While his routes and breaks get better, he still has plenty of weapon to beat defenders in man an zone.  Not just the deep ball.  Who did you want at #29?

[schwamm]

I hate waiting.....heard the same thing in 12, 13 & 14.

And I hate patiently tolerating all the "gotta win the SB every year or I pout like a 2 year old" fans, but I've heard it for decades, and you don't see my griping about it all over the place.

If this is truly that frustrating to you, I might suggest that you could get immediate returns by heading to Boston wearing a Pats jersey (I'm sure they welcome bandwagoners with open arms... and soft footballs

[scooter4910]

If you want that info, I'd start by tracking the Falcons drafts since Mike Smith arrived there...

On your advice I checked the Falcons for the same time period (2012-2014). They drafted 23 players and only 6 have been cut to date. If the Falcons draft based upon need it appears they found more keepers.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Just showing the absurdity of the strict adherence to BPA. We had a very strong WR class this year which could have fallen somewhat in this manner. So what would we do, keep trading down until we select 14 rookies in round 7 (with half being cut at camp) or trade "up" and take a need. We wouldn't trade up for BPA.

This makes no sense at all.  Nobody talked about trading down from round 1 because of a glut of WR. QB's and punter were the talking points you chose. Now you try to change everything and create a new straw man.  I'm going to enjoy our draft (notably our new Round 1 star in the makng).  You keep enjoying that vinegar drink...

[ColtsBlueFL]

On your advice I checked the Falcons for the same time period (2012-2014). They drafted 23 players and only 6 have been cut to date. If the Falcons draft based upon need it appears they found more keepers.

 

And how's that working out for their division titles and Super Bowl runs?

[scooter4910]

And I hate patiently tolerating all the "gotta win the SB every year or I pout like a 2 year old" fans, but I've heard it for decades, and you don't see my griping about it all over the place.

If this is truly that frustrating to you, I might suggest that you could get immediate returns by heading to Boston wearing a Pats jersey (I'm sure they welcome bandwagoners with open arms... and soft footballs )... or by choosing a sport, like baseball, where buying a championship is acceptable.

Never said anything about every year you drama queen and I was probably a Colts fan before you were born. I was thrilled when the Mayflower vans rolled into Indy, wish I had been there but I was in Korea at the time.

 

Bandwagoneer...please. It's a hell of a lot harder being a Colts fan in Seahawk country then you obviously have where ever you reside.   PS, comment wasn't addressed to you so just go start a fight with someone else if you have nothing worthwhile to add.....troll.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Man my brain hurts reading this stuff...

What fans can't understand about the Dorsett pick boggles my mind...

 

He was obviously very highly rated on Grigs board, Grigs feels the kid has that something extra & rare speed, in an era where the Colts will likely be picking very late in each round of the draft, if you get what you feel is a game changer fall to you, you pull the trigger...

 

It is really that easy...

BPA more easily applies to the first and maybe second rounds where top tier talent more directly seperates from the majority of the "solid" players, its the wheat from the chaff analogy...

 

Exactly!  I heard on Cowherd thatout of all NFL drafts, 99 HOF'ers have come from round 1.  And 8 more coming are still currently in the NFL.  in round 2 that drops to 29.  and it drops each round.  You know how many HOF'ers from round 6?  One!!  When Brady retires, it will be 2!!  You take game changingAll-Pro BPA round 1 and 2!!  Try to find potential good players to pro-bowl stars rounds 3-5.  Hope like heck you hit a gem somewhere in rounds 6, 7 and UDFA.

[JRnINDY]

FF to 2:20? Pundient

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2015-nfl-draft-observations/vp-BBj5HlX?ocid=SMSDHP

[scooter4910]

This makes no sense at all.  Nobody talked about trading down from round 1 because of a glut of WR. QB's and punter were the talking points you chose. Now you try to change everything and create a new straw man.  I'm going to enjoy our draft (notably our new Round 1 star in the makng).  You keep enjoying that vinegar drink...

What are you talking about? This is a post about pro's/con's of drafting based upon BPA. Everyone keeps saying "strict adherence to BPA was why we got Dorsett" and the question was what if WR had been the BPA at each of our picks, or QB, or punter, kicker, etc. Would we keep taking them if they were the BPA? I only added those additional scenarios because some folks just don't get it or just choose to be argumentative (like schwamm above).

 

Most of you naysayers are the ones who keep throwing up straw men or changing the topic, scenario, etc. until it suits your position (QB's are BPA only in round #1, Ray Guy, etc), pffttt...whatever.

[scooter4910]

And how's that working out for their division titles and Super Bowl runs?

Okay...let's change the topic again...maybe something will stick.

 

You gave a suggestion, I followed up, it proved a red herring. No help.

[aaron11]

 the question was what if WR had been the BPA at each of our picks, or QB, or punter, kicker, etc. Would we keep taking them if they were the BPA?

 

irrelevant since we only took one WR.  despite what some seem to think it was also a position of need.  last year the offense struggled when ever the defense was able to take ty out of the game.  furthermore injuries are bound to happen and dorsett makes it less likely for the strengh of the team(passing game) to turn into a weakness.

[scooter4910]

irrelevant since we only took one WR.  despite what some seem to think it was also a position of need.  last year the offense struggled when ever the defense was able to take ty out of the game.  furthermore injuries are bound to happen and dorsett makes it less likely for the strengh of the team(passing game) to turn into a weakness.

True.

 

But we could also loose a couple of RB's, lineman....any of our other positions. And of any position WR is probably the only one where we have ample backups. Maybe not the greatest backups but they are there. Mcafee gets his leg broken is Vinateri our only backup? Until Bennett selected as an UDFA we had two QB's and a questionable o-line. Seems like quite the gamble when we had other critical vacancies.

 

But of course folks will come out of the woodwork about we don't need 3 QB's or we can get another punter on the market...blah, blah, blah. That's not the point.

[schwamm]

What are you talking about? This is a post about pro's/con's of drafting based upon BPA. Everyone keeps saying "strict adherence to BPA was why we got Dorsett" and the question was what if WR had been the BPA at each of our picks, or QB, or punter, kicker, etc. Would we keep taking them if they were the BPA? I only added those additional scenarios because some folks just don't get it or just choose to be argumentative (like schwamm above).

Most of you naysayers are the ones who keep throwing up straw men or changing the topic, scenario, etc. until it suits your position (QB's are BPA only in round #1, Ray Guy, etc), pffttt...whatever.

You're barking up all kinds of the wrong trees, you pose, you deflect, and you whine too much. Ignore.