Why Has Peyton Lost The Deep Ball Of Late?

[mightisright]

So somebody in an earlier thread mentioned that Peyton had mostly lost the ability to throw the deep ball the last few years and it got me wondering. Is it because

1. He's been physically declining with age?

2. His neck was bothering him too much (and that will get better)

3. The O-line has sucked so bad that they haven't given him the time to get the receivers down the field

or some other reason....

[That Guy]

So somebody in an earlier thread mentioned that Peyton had mostly lost the ability to throw the deep ball the last few years and it got me wondering. Is it because

1. He's been physically declining with age?

2. His neck was bothering him too much (and that will get better)

3. The O-line has sucked so bad that they haven't given him the time to get the receivers down the field

or some other reason....

A little but of 1 and 3 plus a little:

4. Other team have taken away the deep ball to limit Manning...

[JoKeR]

He takes what the defenses give him and they don't give him many open looks deep. I haven't seen a game where I wondered why Manning has a weak arm.

[FireJimCaldwell]

So somebody in an earlier thread mentioned that Peyton had mostly lost the ability to throw the deep ball the last few years and it got me wondering. Is it because

1. He's been physically declining with age?

2. His neck was bothering him too much (and that will get better)

3. The O-line has sucked so bad that they haven't given him the time to get the receivers down the field

or some other reason....

I would put the majority on option #2. The OL hasn't helped, and even with 88 in his prime he wasn't a deep threat like say a Randy Moss. He was quick fast, not speed fast. Marvin was much better on a slant while Randy was tying to take the top off the defense.

Once he was injured in 2006, we somewhat altered the emphasis of the offense and stopped throwing the deep balls as much. It could be a coincidence but with the issues of the arm strength and such that has been reported I feel that it is more related to the injury than anything.

[The Fish]

Garcon anyone?

Peyton always takes about three deep shots a game

[gspdx]

I tihnk some of it is due to the receivers also. I think when we had Marvin #1 and Reggie #2 both could get some separation. These days Reggie doesn't seem to get much separation (although he makes some great catches with tight coverage) and I don't think Garcon is quite as good of a #2 as Reggie was by this time in his career.

I don't think this is a huge issue, but when you add it to the 1, 2 and 3 above I think it makes a difference. The difference between making those plays and missing those plays is a very fine line. so if you interject a little variablility (which all of those items have) I think it can make a profound difference.

[Bond Shane]

Peyton throwing to DeSean Jackson and Megatron, His Airness will be back

[FireJimCaldwell]

Garcon anyone?

Peyton always takes about three deep shots a game

Depends on your definition of deep. Deep to me would be 40+ Which he doesn't come close to that at game.

[mightisright]

I would put the majority on option #2. The OL hasn't helped, and even with 88 in his prime he wasn't a deep threat like say a Randy Moss. He was quick fast, not speed fast. Marvin was much better on a slant while Randy was tying to take the top off the defense.

Once he was injured in 2006, we somewhat altered the emphasis of the offense and stopped throwing the deep balls as much. It could be a coincidence but with the issues of the arm strength and such that has been reported I feel that it is more related to the injury than anything.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is quick fast vs speed fast?

[FireJimCaldwell]

Pardon my ignorance, but what is quick fast vs speed fast?

Speed fast would be what i would call Sprinters speed or world class speed.

Quick fast would be quicker in shorter bursts, a lot like Barry Sanders, or Marvin Harrison for that matter... Moss is fast but it takes more time for it to build up.. Harrison/Welker/Slot receivers.. are quicker.. Wayne and Collie would be a decent comparison.

[mightisright]

Got it, thanks! Yeah, I could agree with that. We haven't had anybody like Marvin since he left. Wayne is very good in tight coverage, makes some incredible catches, is very dependable. That said, he doesn't get separation like Marvin could....

[That Guy]

Garcon anyone?

Peyton always takes about three deep shots a game

Are you using Garcon as an ARGUMENT AGAINST or as a REASON WHY the deep ball is gone?

Peyton will throw three deep throws:

One will be overthrown...

One will be dropped after hitting Garcon in the hands...

One will be caught by Garcon coming out of NOWHERE with an amazing, acrobatic move...

[ColtsLegacy]

Receivers. Garcon is our only deep threat and he has shown to be inconsistent.

[The Fish]

Are you using Garcon as an ARGUMENT AGAINST or as a REASON WHY the deep ball is gone?

Peyton will throw three deep throws:

One will be overthrown...

One will be dropped after hitting Garcon in the hands...

One will be caught by Garcon coming out of NOWHERE with an amazing, acrobatic move...

Garcon is a starter because he can get seperation and go deep. So he's evidence that the Colts still like the deep vertical offense.

[That Guy]

Garcon is a starter because he can get seperation and go deep. So he's evidence that the Colts still like the deep vertical offense.

This may just be semantics, but I think the question regarded Peyton's abilities more than the Colt's preferences. Garcon still starts this year, yet I see few throws over 30 yards attempted.

[FireJimCaldwell]

This may just be semantics, but I think the question regarded Peyton's abilities more than the Colt's preferences. Garcon still starts this year, yet I see few throws over 30 yards attempted.

Collins was 0/5 on throws deeper than 31 yds

Painter was 1/12 on throws deeper than 31 yds

Orlovzky is 1/1 on throws deeper than 31 yds

2011 Colts QBs 2/18 through 13 games.

Manning

2010 8/25

2009 7/27

2008 7/28

2007 10/27

2006 13/31

2005 9/26

2004 11/22

2003 11/31

2002 8/30

Not exactly a deep ball offense. Considering Manning never averaged 2 31+ yard pass attempts in a season, and the attempts have dropped off with his absence, but the completions have dropped off even more, but that was kind of a given.

[IMissMarvin]

The OL hasn't helped, and even with 88 in his prime he wasn't a deep threat like say a Randy Moss. He was quick fast, not speed fast. Marvin was much better on a slant while Randy was tying to take the top off the defense.

I do not concur. Randy is one of the games all time greatest deep threats so the comparison isn't really fair. Harrison however, still had good deep speed well into his 30's as evidenced by him having a rec. of 60 or more yards each year from 99-2006. During his 'prime', he ran a 4.29 at Syracuse, and 4.37 on his pro day. By comparison, Desean Jackson, ran a 4.38, and he is condisered by many as one of the game's ultimate deep threats.

The reason why the deep ball went away is because defenses almost always play 2 deep safeties against Manning and force him to throw underneath, or along the seam down the middle of the middle of field. This is why Dallas Clark has routinely caught 80+ balls the past few seasons.

The other main factor is our complete lack of a threat on the ground. Teams never have to stack 8 men in the box against the Colts, as there is no threat for suffiecient gains in our running game. Our playaction, which was our bread and butter during the Edge era, has been pretty non-existent the past few seasons.

[mightisright]

confirms what I thought....

[That Guy]

Collins was 0/5 on throws deeper than 31 yds

Painter was 1/12 on throws deeper than 31 yds

Orlovzky is 1/1 on throws deeper than 31 yds

2011 Colts QBs 2/18 through 13 games.

Manning

2010 8/25

2009 7/27

2008 7/28

2007 10/27

2006 13/31

2005 9/26

2004 11/22

2003 11/31

2002 8/30

Not exactly a deep ball offense. Considering Manning never averaged 2 31+ yard pass attempts in a season, and the attempts have dropped off with his absence, but the completions have dropped off even more, but that was kind of a given.

Nice stats!

This also does not include pass interference calls, since they don't get recorded in the statistics. Peyton threw a lot of balls deep hoping for a flag.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I do not concur. Randy is one of the games all time greatest deep threats so the comparison isn't really fair. Harrison however, still had good deep speed well into his 30's as evidenced by him having a rec. of 60 or more yards each year from 99-2006. During his 'prime', he ran a 4.29 at Syracuse, and 4.37 on his pro day. By comparison, Desean Jackson, ran a 4.38, and he is condisered by many as one of the game's ultimate deep threats.

The reason why the deep ball went away is because defenses almost always play 2 deep safeties against Manning and force him to throw underneath, or along the seam down the middle of the middle of field. This is why Dallas Clark has routinely caught 80+ balls the past few seasons.

He's fast, but it still a different type of receiver than Moss. Even with Harrison, we wouldn't try to take the top off the defense like Culpepper & Brady did with Moss which was mostly due to his height advantage and his speed. He could go get the jump ball where Marvin couldn't do the same.

I still contribute the shift in the offense as as much to Manning's injury as anything. I'm also not calling a 30 yard pass a deep ball, but consider the fact that from 2002 to 2006 Manning averaged 5.8 41+ yard pass attempts a year, and 2007 following the injury in the Washington game he averaged 2 attempts per year from 2007-2010. It has to do with a combination of factors, Injured nec/arm strength, change in offensive philosophy, weaker OL, more inexperience at the WR position with the loss of 88 & 83 and age. All are contributing factors, but I put the majority on the Neck/arm strength issue.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Nice stats!

This also does not include pass interference calls, since they don't get recorded in the statistics. Peyton threw a lot of balls deep hoping for a flag.

That is a good point, there are also the deep heaves when he catches someone offsides and he knows he has a free play, but statistically we haven't been a deep ball offense.

[IMissMarvin]

He's fast, but it still a different type of receiver than Moss. Even with Harrison, we wouldn't try to take the top off the defense like Culpepper & Brady did with Moss which was mostly due to his height advantage and his speed. He could go get the jump ball where Marvin couldn't do the same.

I still contribute the shift in the offense as as much to Manning's injury as anything. I'm also not calling a 30 yard pass a deep ball, but consider the fact that from 2002 to 2006 Manning averaged 5.8 41+ yard pass attempts a year, and 2007 following the injury in the Washington game he averaged 2 attempts per year from 2007-2010. It has to do with a combination of factors, Injured nec/arm strength, change in offensive philosophy, weaker OL, more inexperience at the WR position with the loss of 88 & 83 and age. All are contributing factors, but I put the majority on the Neck/arm strength issue.

I agree. Peyton was also pretty inconsistent when he came off his first injury and missed the entire training camp; he didn't really hit stride until about 2/3s through the season.

Also, as you mentioned when talking about Moss, we've never had a big body jump ball receiver who can get the balll at its highest point of atack. A perfect example would be Vincent Jackson for the Chargers. He doesn't have the greatest burst, but he runs strong, and uses his 6'5 frame and uncanny body control to challenge almost any ball thrown deep down the sidelines.

Some guys get automatic throws when they receive one-on-one coverage regardless of how much seperation they can generate, simply by using size and athletism. Out biggest target is Garcon, who is barely 6'0 and 200 lbs.

[Larry Horseman]

Collins was 0/5 on throws deeper than 31 yds

Painter was 1/12 on throws deeper than 31 yds

Orlovzky is 1/1 on throws deeper than 31 yds

2011 Colts QBs 2/18 through 13 games.

Manning

2010 8/25

2009 7/27

2008 7/28

2007 10/27

2006 13/31

2005 9/26

2004 11/22

2003 11/31

2002 8/30

Not exactly a deep ball offense. Considering Manning never averaged 2 31+ yard pass attempts in a season, and the attempts have dropped off with his absence, but the completions have dropped off even more, but that was kind of a given.

It's interesting how it really didn't change much from 2002 to 2010, but did fluctuate from year to year. Is there any reason you started at '02 instead of his rookie year? Maybe the loss of the deep ball is more perception than reality, that is if the deep ball is defined as 31+...

[That Guy]

That is a good point, there are also the deep heaves when he catches someone offsides and he knows he has a free play, but statistically we haven't been a deep ball offense.

Only the incompletions would be left off. If the pass were completed, we would decline the penalty; and the statistics would count.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I agree. Peyton was also pretty inconsistent when he came off his first injury and missed the entire training camp; he didn't really hit stride until about 2/3s through the season.

Also, as you mentioned when talking about Moss, we've never had a big body jump ball receiver who can get the balll at its highest point of atack. A perfect example would be Vincent Jackson for the Chargers. He doesn't have the greatest burst, but he runs strong, and uses his 6'5 frame and uncanny body control to challenge almost any ball thrown deep down the sidelines.

Some guys get automatic throws when they receive one-on-one coverage regardless of how much seperation they can generate, simply by using size and athletism. Out biggest target is Garcon, who is barely 6'0 and 200 lbs.

Jackon is a good example Larry Fitzgerald would be another perfect example.. one-on-one it needs to be going to him. I think he's like 6'3 215-225 combined with tremendous athletic ability. The closest thing we had to that from a height weight standpoint would be Aaron Moorehead, which the comparison ends there. Nowhere near as talented as the other guys mentioned.

It's interesting how it really didn't change much from 2002 to 2010, but did fluctuate from year to year. Is there any reason you started at '02 instead of his rookie year? Maybe the loss of the deep ball is more perception than reality, that is if the deep ball is defined as 31+...

That particular data doesn't exist anywhere I have found it for 1998-2001, so I provided the information that I had. I certainly wasn't attempting to cherry pick anything, and I wouldn't really define it as 31+, the next grouping is 41+. Keep in mind that this is the length of the pass and not the length of the play so Painter's -1 yard Screen to Garcon that resulted in a long TD would not be listed in this.

41+

2011 Collins & Painter 0/6

Manning

Year ATT    CMP
2002 6  0
2003 5  2
2004 1  0
2005 8  2
2006 9  3
2007 2  0
2008 2  0
2009 3  1
2010 1  0

So even then it was fairly rare, but as I mentioned in a previous post, the 2002-2006 average of 5.8 nearly triples the average attempt of 2 from 2007-2010. Which I would argue points directly towards the injury.

Only the incompletions would be left off. If the pass were completed, we would decline the penalty; and the statistics would count.

Of course.

[Superman]

Manning

Year ATT	CMP
2002 6  0
2003 5  2
2004 1  0
2005 8  2
2006 9  3
2007 2  0
2008 2  0
2009 3  1
2010 1  0

2004 is why I don't really care. If he can throw 49 touchdowns and we can score 522 points without completing a single pass 40+ yards down the field, then it really highlights the fact that 40+ yard completions aren't a necessity to move the ball or score points.

Also, with a mediocre defense, sometimes dragging a possession out is a good thing.

[Cain Marko]

I think I remember hearing they believe Manning initially injured his neck/nerve in 2006 against the Redskins. Then I believe it was last year that Jaws said he thought Manning was losing some of his zip. There's a direct correlation between the injury and perceived lack of a deep ball. Garcon can't catch anyway.

[Larry Horseman]

That particular data doesn't exist anywhere I have found it for 1998-2001, so I provided the information that I had. I certainly wasn't attempting to cherry pick anything, and I wouldn't really define it as 31+, the next grouping is 41+. Keep in mind that this is the length of the pass and not the length of the play so Painter's -1 yard Screen to Garcon that resulted in a long TD would not be listed in this.

41+

2011 Collins & Painter 0/6

Manning

Year ATT	CMP
2002 6  0
2003 5  2
2004 1  0
2005 8  2
2006 9  3
2007 2  0
2008 2  0
2009 3  1
2010 1  0

So even then it was fairly rare, but as I mentioned in a previous post, the 2002-2006 average of 5.8 nearly triples the average attempt of 2 from 2007-2010. Which I would argue points directly towards the injury.

Wasn't saying you were cherry picking. I just genuinely wondered why it began in 2002.

The Harrison (or lack of) factor also comes into play in 2007. I couldn't find data for length of all receptions, but Harrison did have a 41+ yard reception every year of his career (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarrMa00.htm). The same site also shows that Manning had a completion of 68 yards or longer every year of his career. Again, this is length of play not length of pass like you provided.

I don't think the 31-40 category shows any significant change between 02-06 and 07-10. From 02-06, he averaged 10.4 completions and 28 attempts. From 07-10, he averaged 8 and 26.75. If anything his accuracy dropped, but again that could be contributed to a number of factors

The reality of the situation is that it is probably a combination of natural aging, the injury, Harrison leaving, and defenses adjusting to take away the deep pass.

[mightisright]

good point Superman!

[Redskins fan]

I was in the front row when Manning came to DC last season and played the Redskins

That deep ball to Garcon was in front of me. He hasn't lost any deep ball whatsoever

[FireJimCaldwell]

Wasn't saying you were cherry picking. I just genuinely wondered why it began in 2002.

The Harrison (or lack of) factor also comes into play in 2007. I couldn't find data for length of all receptions, but Harrison did have a 41+ yard reception every year of his career (http://www.pro-footb.../H/HarrMa00.htm). The same site also shows that Manning had a completion of 68 yards or longer every year of his career. Again, this is length of play not length of pass like you provided.

I don't think the 31-40 category shows any significant change between 02-06 and 07-10. From 02-06, he averaged 10.4 completions and 28 attempts. From 07-10, he averaged 8 and 26.75. If anything his accuracy dropped, but again that could be contributed to a number of factors

The reality of the situation is that it is probably a combination of natural aging, the injury, Harrison leaving, and defenses adjusting to take away the deep pass.

I was just pointing out that I wasn't cherry picking, i wasn't saying that you were accusing me of it.

The first set was 31+, not 31-40.

31-40 C A % ATT PG
02-06 45 111 40.5% 1.39
07-10 31 99 31.3% 1.55

In this case the attempts per game went up and the accuracy did drop, but like you said there are multiple reasons for that.

If you take the 2006 season out of the equation and compare 2002-2005 & 2007-2010, The shorter and intermediate passes increased while the 41+ passes decreased quite a bit 20 attempts down to 8.

[oldunclemark]

When Manning threw 11 interceptions in 4 games in 2010.... was he hurt???

...was he hurt throughout 2010?

[FireJimCaldwell]

When Manning threw 11 interceptions in 4 games in 2010.... was he hurt???

...was he hurt throughout 2010?

I would argue that he's been under par (physically) since that game vs. Washington in 2006.

[oldunclemark]

I would argue that he's been under par (physically) since that game vs. Washington in 2006.

He never admitted it in 2010, FJC.......but he never would..they were trying to make the playoffs

[FireJimCaldwell]

He never admitted it in 2010, FJC.......but he never would..they were trying to make the playoffs

No reason to admit it, No reason to put an ever bigger target on him.

[Superman]

When Manning threw 11 interceptions in 4 games in 2010.... was he hurt???

...was he hurt throughout 2010?

Maybe.

But most of those interceptions had nothing to do with velocity. A couple of them weren't his fault (the one where Reggie got pushed against the Chargers comes to mind immediately). A few of them were half a second late (like one of the ones Sean Lee got in the Cowboys game).

The one that I never understood was the last one against the Patriots. The ball kind of just died halfway there. Came off his hand fine, and it seemed like the wind got it. I don't really know. Seems like a stretch to say that was because his arm or his nerve wasn't 100%.

I will point out, however, that he underthrew Garcon at least twice in the Jets playoff game last year, then they finally connected for the touchdown. I don't think it was an issue of not being able to get the ball out there, I just think Garcon is really fast when he gets on his horse.

[Jay305]

His neck and the Oline for sure

[GoColts8818]

It's been there hit or miss. Some of it is I don't think they have the speedy Marvin Harrison to go deep as much as they used to. Wayne has never been a deep threat. Garcon has and that's where the hit and miss comes in, when he catches it we do have deep balls when he doesn't it tends to be a drop and leaves us shaking our heads at the misses.

I also think Manning's injury played a role in this as many people think his injury might have happened all the way back in 2006, I remember people wondering why he wore the pad last year, maybe that had something to do with his neck. The defenses we played had a role too. A lot of defense played a deep shell vs. us to keep Manning from going deep rather making the Colts drive down the field and choosing to die a slow death vs. letting Manning score quickly.

[MAC]

The specific problem last year was the oline - no doubt in my mind. It's entirely possible that there has been some physical issues, but last year he just didn't have any time to throw. The yards per attempt was horrible as a result, but I didn't see it being related to failed deep passes, I saw him trying to get rid of the ball before being hammered - which he was over and over again.

Not coincidentally it's the same issue that destroyed Painter. Orlovsky came in and they immediately shifted to a run oriented game. When Painter was in they were throwing a lot more, and he was desperately trying to get the ball out in fractions of a second. The difference is that with Peyton the result was a 9.5 yard completion on 3rd and 9. With Painter it was a 2 yard completion - if it got there at all.

[Warhorse]

I agree that his being bent like a pretzel in 06 was the injury that started all this. But no one talks about what aggravated it. We all have heard that PM is a freak when it comes to demanding all the playing and practicing time. Well, in 2010, I believe the percentage of passes to runs went to an all time high, or close to it, in comparison to other years with him under center.

It is my belief that he had an injured spine, and he just flat out overused it in 2010 and made it flare up to the point of surgery. Would it have gotten there eventually? Probably, but maybe a couple of years later if the team had provided him with an oline and a running game so he didn't have to toss the team on his back.

Just my thought on it.