How to stop the Pats?

[snkdy]

13 pages and it's Monday . This is going to be a long week.

[Superman]

Until the season is over. Last year it was three points for the league as a whole

http://www.progspicks.com/myth.html

 

That's just averaging point spreads, though. That's not the same as saying that teams are typically three points better at home. When they set the point spread, they don't automatically add in the average home spread.

[jvan1973]

That's just averaging point spreads, though. That's not the same as saying that teams are typically three points better at home. When they set the point spread, they don't automatically add in the average home spread.

Right, i agree. Its a complicated process coming up with the spread. They aren't predicting the out come, just trying to get even money on either side

[amfootball]

Average, yes. But some teams get more, some less. Its not the end all number fir every team like you have alluded to in many posts

Sure. An average. Like everything else.

[jvan1973]

Sure. An average. Like everything else.

except that's not what you have been saying

[amfootball]

except that's not what you have been saying

That is what I meant. 3 points on average. You can't quantify anything across the board. But that is the generally agreed upon advantage in terms of points.

[jvan1973]

That is what I meant. 3 points on average. You can't quantify anything across the board. But that is the generally agreed upon advantage in terms of points.

what you said was, if two teams play on a neutral field and the spread is 7 it would become 10 or 4 if they played in their home stadiums. That's not an average. That is just giving the home team 3 points

[jvan1973]

You are missing the point. It is 3 points on top of who you think the better team is. So for example, if Denver is playing the Titans at a neutral field they are favored by say 14 points. If Denver is playing them in Denver then they are favored by 17. Three points more than what you would think if they were at a neutral field. If the game is in TN then Denver is favored by 11. So Vegas generally gives the home team an extra 3 points for home field advantage. It does not mean the home team is only favored by 3 points no matter the opponent.

Exhibit A

[amfootball]

what you said was, if two teams play on a neutral field and the spread is 7 it would become 10 or 4 if they played in their home stadiums. That's not an average. That is just giving the home team 3 points

Yes a very nebulous example I admit but I did not know how else to explain it. I didn't want Offensveily PC to think I meant the home team is always favored by 3 and only 3.

[Superman]

Yes a very nebulous example I admit but I did not know how else to explain it. I didn't want Offensveily PC to think I meant the home team is always favored by 3 and only 3.

 

How Vegas favors the home team has nothing to do with the games go. Even if it were true that Vegas just gives the home team a specific number of points every game -- which it's not -- that doesn't mean that Vegas thinks the home team is that many points better than the road team. 

 

Over/under is a better indication of what Vegas thinks the game is going to look like, but even that is a prediction of what the public is going to bet.

[OffensivelyPC]

I agree completely. You were asking to quantify home field advantage as we all believe there is some advantage. Vegas puts it at 3 points for the home team. There is no other quantifiable metric that I know of so I used Vegas. I just don't happen to put as much stock in home field advantage as some do on this thread. For sure it is advantage but generally speaking the team that executes the better game plan wins.

 

 

Okay, but what Vegas does with point spreads doesn't mean what you seem to think it means. That's about getting even money on both teams, not how the teams match up with one another. It has nothing to do with the game. They'll put Broncos vs. Raiders at Raiders -10 if they think that will get even money on both sides, even though we all know the Raiders aren't 20 points better than the Broncos. 

 

If Vegas sets the line at Pats -5 for a Pats road game, people think that means that the Pats are considered to be 8 points better than the home team. That's not true. That means Vegas thinks that's the number needed to induce equal money on both sides of the bet. The preconceived notion that the home team gets 3 points is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy; the general public thinks the home team gets 3 points, so they work that into their betting. But professional bettors know better than that, and they often place their bets late anyways, after the line has moved. 

 

But this whole "home team -3" thing has nothing to do with actual football. It's only betting. And you keep repeating it as if it has something to do with the outcome of games.

 

Edit: It's more about predicting the behavior of those placing bets than it is predicting the outcome of the game.

What he said.  The home field advantage in Vegas' opinion is just a play on the odds...a "factual" consistency as far as betting is concerned - no more, no less.  What the real value of home field advantage is depends on whos playing, where they are playing, what day it is, and what happens during the game...all of which are incapable of being ascertained with raw data (which the betting line is dependent upon).

[amfootball]

How Vegas favors the home team has nothing to do with the games go. Even if it were true that Vegas just gives the home team a specific number of points every game -- which it's not -- that doesn't mean that Vegas thinks the home team is that many points better than the road team. 

 

Over/under is a better indication of what Vegas thinks the game is going to look like, but even that is a prediction of what the public is going to bet.

I never said it did. I was asked to try to quantify home field advantage, I don't even remember by who at this point and the first thing I thought of was Vegas. I used to do PR for a company that was a sports betting information organization. Basically people paid for inside information that they could use for betting. As I worked with them, I got to understand Vegas fairly well but honestly most of it made my head spin. For sure it is about making money and not predicting games whatsoever and it preys on the public obviously but it is amazing how right they are most of the time.

[Superman]

I never said it did. I was asked to try to quantify home field advantage, I don't even remember by who at this point and the first thing I thought of was Vegas. I used to do PR for a company that was a sports betting information organization. Basically people paid for inside information that they could use for betting. As I worked with them, I got to understand Vegas fairly well but honestly most of it made my head spin. For sure it is about making money and not predicting games whatsoever and it preys on the public obviously but it is amazing how right they are most of the time.

 

You suggested as much several times. 

[jvan1973]

You suggested as much several times.

not just in this thread either. She back pedals better than any DB in the league

[amfootball]

You suggested as much several times. 

To me it is. But I know most don't see Vegas in that way. I should have been clearer but I think I was just caught up in the discussion.

[amfootball]

not just in this thread either. She back pedals better than any DB in the league

I learn from the two best in that department.

[SteelCityColt]

Some absolutely mind boggling responses in this one, glad to see in the spirit of equality that ignorance is no barrier to people posting their "expert" opinion. To admit you're wrong garners more respect than digging and digging the hole as you defend the incorrect posiiton you've laid out previously.

Spread betting is a very scientific thing these days when it comes to the bookies setting the line, but the be all and end all is the spread goes with the money. There are no "simple" rules like give a 3 point advantage to the home team.. I mean really. How naive.

[amfootball]

Some absolutely mind boggling responses in this one, glad to see in the spirit of equality that ignorance is no barrier to people posting their "expert" opinion. To admit you're wrong garners more respect than digging and digging the hole as you defend the incorrect posiiton you've laid out previously.

Spread betting is a very scientific thing these days when it comes to the bookies setting the line, but the be all and end all is the spread goes with the money. There are no "simple" rules like give a 3 point advantage to the home team.. I mean really. How naive.

I am sorry but you are a complete jerk.

[Atlas Shrugged NFL]

Those "experts" odds makers were real accurate on the Pats/Broncos game eh?

 

I really wish the spread had the Colts favored by 20.  That would have been great bulletin board material for the Pats.

[Superman]

To me it is. But I know most don't see Vegas in that way. I should have been clearer but I think I was just caught up in the discussion.

 

So you operate with your own set of facts, basically. You think that Vegas point spreads dictate what home field advantage is. And Vegas point spreads have almost nothing to do with what happens on the football field.

 

All this in an attempt to explain away the fact that the Patriots are more dominant in Gillette than on the road. As if it's a slight against the Patriots in some way. Every team is better at home. The Patriots, moreso than any other AFC team, historically. 

[Dustin]

All this in an attempt to explain away the fact that the Patriots are more dominant in Gillette than on the road. As if it's a slight against the Patriots in some way. Every team is better at home. The Patriots, moreso than any other AFC team, historically. 

 

so..... what I'm gathering from this is that you think the Patriots are terrible on the road. 

[Superman]

so..... what I'm gathering from this is that you think the Patriots are terrible on the road. 

 

LOL

 

Just shoot me...

[Dustin]

How to stop the Pats?

 

 

Make Brady throw the ball further than 10 yards down the field. 

[amfootball]

So you operate with your own set of facts, basically. You think that Vegas point spreads dictate what home field advantage is. And Vegas point spreads have almost nothing to do with what happens on the football field.

 

All this in an attempt to explain away the fact that the Patriots are more dominant in Gillette than on the road. As if it's a slight against the Patriots in some way. Every team is better at home. The Patriots, moreso than any other AFC team, historically. 

Nope. Not explaining away anything. Pats are very good at Indy too historically in the regular season and Brady is historically great in domes. And as you said, Luck throws his most picks vs the Pats so all of these factors give me confidence for the game along with the way the Pats have been playing for the last 5 games.

[Dustin]

Nope. Not explaining away anything. Pats are very good at Indy too historically in the regular season and Brady is historically great in domes. And as you said, Luck throws his most picks vs the Pats so all of these factors give me confidence for the game along with the way the Pats have been playing for the last 5 games.

 

Tom Brady has never won a game in Lucas Oil Stadium. You guys don't even have to watch the game Sunday. 

 

/checkmate

/thread

[Atlas Shrugged NFL]

Shouldn't the spread really be 50+ ? 

 

What's the point of the Pats even showing up?

 

I mean the Colts' dominate defensive line will be "smothering" Brady all night long, probably sacked 10 times.

 

Gronk will be hit and beaten like a rag doll.  The Colts will shut Gronk down, won't even let him get off the line of scrimmage.

 

Luck will throw for 10 td's.

 

No one on earth is capable of covering TY.  He'll break quadruple coverage.  He'll be catching 50 yard bombs all night.

 

Landry will be knocking out Patriots receivers all night.

[amfootball]

Tom Brady has never won a game in Lucas Oil Stadium. Checkmate. You guys don't even have to watch the game Sunday. 

 

/thread

lol. Good one. We have zero data then. What a waste of a thread. ;)

[Dustin]

Shouldn't the spread really be 50+ ? 

 

 

Wow. You really overate the Patriots. 

[Atlas Shrugged NFL]

Make Brady throw the ball further than 10 yards down the field. 

 

Or give him TY or an actual down field receiver for once?  Brady hasn't had a legit down field WR since the beginning the first half of the 2010 season.

[jvan1973]

Shouldn't the spread really be 50+ ?

What's the point of the Pats even showing up?

I mean the Colts' dominate defensive line will be "smothering" Brady all night long, probably sacked 10 times.

Gronk will be hit and beaten like a rag doll. The Colts will shut Gronk down, won't even let him get off the line of scrimmage.

Luck will throw for 10 td's.

No one on earth is capable of covering TY. He'll break quadruple coverage. He'll be catching 50 yard bombs all night.

Landry will be knocking out Patriots receivers all night.

Except no one here has said anything close to that. Aren't you about out of your newbie daily posts yet?

[Superman]

Nope. Not explaining away anything. Pats are very good at Indy too historically in the regular season and Brady is historically great in domes. And as you said, Luck throws his most picks vs the Pats so all of these factors give me confidence for the game along with the way the Pats have been playing for the last 5 games.

 

 

Is this what you do with paper clips? 

 

It's what you do with facts, so...

 

(just a joke)

[Dustin]

Or give him TY or an actual down field receiver for once?  Brady hasn't had a legit down field WR since the beginning the first half of the 2010 season.

 

Wouldn't help considering his horrible deep ball accuracy.

[Atlas Shrugged NFL]

Wouldn't help considering his horrible deep ball accuracy.

 

He's actually very accurate down field.  He doesn't have a down field threat to throw to.

 

Take away TY and Wayne and Luck's accuracy goes way down since he doesn't have quality to throw to.

 

Brady is actually more accurate than Luck is.  Brady can throw it long to.........Shane Vareen accurately...

 

Brady would be throwing the long ball too if he had TY.  Don't fool yourself.

[RockThatBlue]

Shouldn't the spread really be 50+ ?

What's the point of the Pats even showing up?

I mean the Colts' dominate defensive line will be "smothering" Brady all night long, probably sacked 10 times.

Gronk will be hit and beaten like a rag doll. The Colts will shut Gronk down, won't even let him get off the line of scrimmage.

Luck will throw for 10 td's.

No one on earth is capable of covering TY. He'll break quadruple coverage. He'll be catching 50 yard bombs all night.

Landry will be knocking out Patriots receivers all night.

You're the one making it sound like Indy has no shot. Nobody here is saying we will blow the pats out, but its going to be a much tougher game than Pats fans realize. This is a lot different colts team than the ones you have played recently. We are healthier too.

[Atlas Shrugged NFL]

Colts fans should thank their lucky stars that organization surrounded Luck with as many weapons as Peyton has.

 

I'd love to see Luck and Peyton do with what Brady has with Brady's "weapons".

[Superman]

Wouldn't help considering his horrible deep ball accuracy.

 

Come on, 29.7% on throws more than 20 yards down the field isn't that bad...

[Dustin]

He's actually very accurate down field.  He doesn't have a down field threat to throw to.

 

 

Actually he has some of the worst deep accuaracy in the NFL. 11 of 37 with 2 drops (35.1% 4th worst) for 352 yards.

 

Compared with Luck's 23 of 46 with 1 drop (52.2% 4th best) for 707 yards. Even without TYs targets he's still 14 of 29 (48.2%, 7th highest in the NFL).

 

Good try though man. 

[RockThatBlue]

He's actually very accurate down field. He doesn't have a down field threat to throw to.

Take away TY and Wayne and Luck's accuracy goes way down since he doesn't have quality to throw to.

Brady is actually more accurate than Luck is. Brady can throw it long to.........Shane Vareen accurately...

Brady would be throwing the long ball too if he had TY. Don't fool yourself.

If you think TY and Wayne are the only two people with quality to throw to you're wrong. Obviously haven't watched a colts game this year.

[Atlas Shrugged NFL]

You're the one making it sound like Indy has no shot. Nobody here is saying we will blow the pats out, but its going to be a much tougher game than Pats fans realize. This is a lot different colts team than the ones you have played recently. We are healthier too.

 

Bill Polian likes your avatar photo.  Except when the Patriots do that, then it's illegal.

[Superman]

He's actually very accurate down field.  He doesn't have a down field threat to throw to.

 

Take away TY and Wayne and Luck's accuracy goes way down since he doesn't have quality to throw to.

 

Brady is actually more accurate than Luck is.  Brady can throw it long to.........Shane Vareen accurately...

 

Brady would be throwing the long ball too if he had TY.  Don't fool yourself.

 

You can "prove" anything with anecdotal evidence. 

 

Fact is Brady has one of the worst completion percentages on deep balls of any QB in the league. Seriously. Andy Dalton has a higher deep ball percentage than Tom Brady.