By a Pats Fan - Advanced NFL Stats: The Myth of Playoff Peyton ,he's one of the best playoff QBs of this generation.

[bayone]

Excerpt long article analysis   Advanced NFL Stats: The Myth of Playoff Peyton

 

Pat fans dont argue with me this is a prsentation by a Pats fan , see near ending paragragph

 

 What people fail to realize is that Peyton has not been any worse in the postseason. In fact, one could make a fairly convincing argument that he's been one of the two or three best playoff quarterbacks of this generation.

 

To illustrate this point, let's take off our "Embrace Debate" hats and let the numbers tell the story.

 

discussed

 

Postseason Peyton vs. Regular Season Peyton

 

long , charts etc & this note at end

 

Brees stands out as the clear star in this, but Peyton's numbers are better are in line with everyone else on that list.

 

The sample size of throws is quite small given the parameters, but it repudiates the notion that Peyton chokes under postseason pressure.

 

The skeptics might point out Manning's isolated stinkers as a counter, but even in postseason losses, his numbers are again better than just about every quarterback with a reasonable sample size besides Brees. In particular, Manning has been a tick better than his greatest nemesis. ( chart show Brady )

 

Peyton vs. Peers

 

Manning has actually been a little better in the playoffs, even in the WPA ( explained in article ) department. Brady may have two more Super Bowl-winning drives, but in the larger scope, he hasn't performed better.

 

But simply because of the timing of Brady's successes, he's developed a reputation as the most "clutch" quarterback of his generation.

 

This is not intended to tear down Brady, but rather to correct Manning's standing

 

Much like LeBron James and Michael Jordan in the NBA, Manning was subject to the linear progression of postseason success, experiencing failures against superior teams before finally breaking through.

 

When an athlete with special gifts fails to translate their talent into an immediate tangible payoff, fans and media have a tendency to make foolish assumptions about abstractions like "makeup" and "clutch factor" as an explanation for their failures.

In reality, it's just really freaking hard to win a championship.

 

As a Pats fan, I've seen the 2013 Denver Broncos movie before, and it hasn't ended well.

 

The Broncos are certainly capable of winning the Super Bowl with a historically great passing game and little else, but they'll need plenty of breaks in the randomness that defines single-elimination postseason play.

 

Whether or not they catch those breaks will shape the mainstream judgment of Peyton Manning, but it really shouldn't.

 

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/the-myth-of-playoff-peyton.html

[Shane Bond]

Great one, Bayone.

[chad72]

Oh no, in cometh the Brady fans...1,2,3...

[amfootball]

He just got the Td record and now we need to start justifying his post-season too?  The insecurities being to creep in again ....

[throwing BBZ]

Was that 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for the SB winning run?

Compare his Playoff won loss record against the Greats. He is Very Alone at the BOTTOM!

 

But a Great regular season career with over 40& of his wins beating up 7 teams, Houston, the Jags, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Buffalo, KC, and Oakland.

 Can you imagine if he LOSES, is one and done again this year? lol

[bayone]

He just got the Td record and now we need to start justifying his post-season too?  The insecurities being to creep in again ....

 

 

Oh no, in cometh the Brady fans...1,2,3...

 

 

 

not insecure, i post them as e-mailed to me and have time just like the schedule i just did, also thought was interesting as was from a Pats fan view

 

Believe me insecurities are not part of my persona Re myself nor my TEam nor Peyton,

 

Been though way to much in life &   always  handle things,

 

On Here just do so  when com,e across them & when I can timewise

 

By the way Chris moretenson on NFL insiders just said Peyton is forced tio get the points & the record TD's do to the bad D and says the d may be a problem in playoffs esp now without Von Miller ,also record was so n big as no Clady

 

Mort also says people he speaks to doubtsw & he doubts the Broncos can overcopme the D injuries and win the SB

 

Hope u listened to it so u know i write only what i read or hear

[Shane Bond]

He just got the Td record and now we need to start justifying his post-season too?  The insecurities being to creep in again ....

 

Do you agree with the the above article?

[Superman]

Do you agree with the the above article?

 

Evidently didn't read it. There's obviously no insecurity on the part of the Pats fan who wrote it.

[amfootball]

Evidently didn't read it. There's obviously no insecurity on the part of the Pats fan who wrote it.

Why would Pats fans have any insecurity regarding the post-season? We don't need to "explain" any of Brady's games.

[Shane Bond]

Why would Pats fans have any insecurity regarding the post-season? We don't need to "explain" any of Brady's games.

Every time you ignore certain posts in the middle of a discussion, it suggests you dont have anything further to argue against.

[Superman]

Why would Pats fans have any insecurity regarding the post-season? We don't need to "explain" any of Brady's games.

 

Again, proof you didn't read the article linked.

[bayone]

Do you agree with the the above article?

 

 

Evidently didn't read it. There's obviously no insecurity on the part of the Pats fan who wrote it.

 

 

I still cant believe I am out of likes from this morning record TD thrtead

[GoPats]

That gave me an ice cream headache. I'm a simple fan. I actually had to look up "Win Probability Added" and "Expected Points Added!"

[bayone]

That gave me an ice cream headache. I'm a simple fan. I actually had to look up "Win Probability Added" and "Expected Points Added!"

 

thats like football oustsider names / articles , know what u mean, exactly with that ice cream  headache line , i get them, to from these  

 

Reminds me pharmacolgy class or genetics , etc

[amfootball]

Again, proof you didn't read the article linked

Let me ask you and please answer honestly as I know Manning is your favorite player and I respect your opinion a lot. Aren't articles like this embarrassing? And I am speaking honestly here. In no way do I blame Manning for all of his playoff losses or for some of his playoff wins for that matter. But to have an article like this post chart after chart trying to explain away 11 playoff losses borders on pathetic. His record is what it is. And I do think the criticism he receives is unfair at times but the praises as well. He said himself yesterday that his 51 TDs were a team accomplishment yet we put that whole record on him but playoff losses aren't on him? The double standard is stunning. 

[Superman]

That gave me an ice cream headache. I'm a simple fan. I actually had to look up "Win Probability Added" and "Expected Points Added!"

 

Yeah, his argument is mostly based on advanced metrics. And just like everything else in this never-ending debate, not conclusive.

[Superman]

Let me ask you and please answer honestly as I know Manning is your favorite player and I respect your opinion a lot. Aren't articles like this embarrassing? And I am speaking honestly here. In no way do I blame Manning for all of his playoff losses or for some of his playoff wins for that matter. But to have an article like this post chart after chart trying to explain away 11 playoff losses borders on pathetic. His record is what it is. And I do think the criticism he receives is unfair at times but the praises as well. He said himself yesterday that his 51 TDs were a team accomplishment yet we put that whole record on him but playoff losses aren't on him? The double standard is stunning. 

 

The answer is NO.

[bayone]

Yeah, his argument is mostly based on advanced metrics. And just like everything else in this never-ending debate, not conclusive.

 

& never will be

[amfootball]

The answer is NO.

ok. Fair enough.

[GoPats]

Yeah, his argument is mostly based on advanced metrics. And just like everything else in this never-ending debate, not conclusive.

 

I hope football doesn't go the way of baseball. I never recall, being a boy and watching Luis Tiant, or a young Roger Clemens, or the Sox' lefty ace in '86, Bruce Hurst, and thinking, "Gee I wonder what his pitch count is?"  ;)

[bayone]

I hope football doesn't go the way of baseball. I never recall, being a boy and watching Luis Tiant, or a young Roger Clemens, or the Sox' lefty ace in '86, Bruce Hurst, and thinking, "Gee I wonder what his pitch count is?"  ;)

 

only counting i did in baseball was koufax complete games / strikeouts and wins, as well as drysdale's ,

 

man is the game diff now, if koufax had access to tadays surgery may never had quite, or even a middle reliver, but back then u went for complete games unless were in troubl;e

[Superman]

I hope football doesn't go the way of baseball. I never recall, being a boy and watching Luis Tiant, or a young Roger Clemens, or the Sox' lefty ace in '86, Bruce Hurst, and thinking, "Gee I wonder what his pitch count is?"  ;)

 

No, I think it's entirely different. Baseball is an individual based sport. For the most part, your performance is on display for everyone to see, play after play. Advanced metrics are designed to dig deeper into how players perform in certain situations, what trends develop over time, etc. 

 

In football, a team based sport, you have to track how individuals perform to get a better idea of what they mean to their team, and how they impact wins and losses. For instance, you take a defensive lineman on a team with poor run defense, and without advanced metrics, you might assume that he's not a good run defender. Or a pass rusher on a team with few sacks, you assume he's not an effective pass rusher. But these metrics are designed to individualize performances so you can identify who gets the job done and who doesn't. A running back with a low YPC might be the victim of terrible run blocking; an offensive line that gives up a lot of sacks might be the victim of a QB who doesn't make decisions quick enough, or a receiving corps that doesn't create separation. There are lots of reasonable uses for these breakdowns, if you ask me.

 

I don't think you'll ever have the equivalent of the pitch count argument in football. You might have skill guys whose numbers are sacrificed in the name of situational substitutions (this back is better in short yardage, this back is better going to the left, etc.) 

[buffalo34]

Was that 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions for the SB winning run?

Compare his Playoff won loss record against the Greats. He is Very Alone at the BOTTOM!

 

But a Great regular season career with over 40& of his wins beating up 7 teams, Houston, the Jags, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Buffalo, KC, and Oakland.

 Can you imagine if he LOSES, is one and done again this year? lol

 

Didn't most of his interceptions come in the first playoff game against Kansas City? The Colts also had to play Baltimore in their place that postseason, who had possibly the best defense in the NFL that season. I'd bet on any NFL team not coming in and dropping 30+ points in that situation. Given how good of a defense Baltimore had, the Colts probably weren't going to do better than the 15 points they put up (including the 7 minute drive at the end that allowed the Colts to go up 2 scores and put the game away).

 

Second, in the AFC Championship game, the Colts offense went down the field for 4 touchdowns. Only one of those TDs was a passing TD. One was a rushing TD for Addai (the game winner), another was a recovered fumble by Saturday, and the other a Peyton QB sneak. The Peyton Manning-led Colts offense put up 38 points and 4 touchdowns (something that TD/INT wouldn't have shown you that day). You do realize that passing touchdowns aren't the only way to score, right?

[Shane Bond]

You do realize that passing touchdowns aren't the only way to score, right?

LOL, that cracked me up

[amfootball]

No, I think it's entirely different. Baseball is an individual based sport. For the most part, your performance is on display for everyone to see, play after play. Advanced metrics are designed to dig deeper into how players perform in certain situations, what trends develop over time, etc. 

 

In football, a team based sport, you have to track how individuals perform to get a better idea of what they mean to their team, and how they impact wins and losses. For instance, you take a defensive lineman on a team with poor run defense, and without advanced metrics, you might assume that he's not a good run defender. Or a pass rusher on a team with few sacks, you assume he's not an effective pass rusher. But these metrics are designed to individualize performances so you can identify who gets the job done and who doesn't. A running back with a low YPC might be the victim of terrible run blocking; an offensive line that gives up a lot of sacks might be the victim of a QB who doesn't make decisions quick enough, or a receiving corps that doesn't create separation. There are lots of reasonable uses for these breakdowns, if you ask me.

 

I don't think you'll ever have the equivalent of the pitch count argument in football. You might have skill guys whose numbers are sacrificed in the name of situational substitutions (this back is better in short yardage, this back is better going to the left, etc.) 

Exactly. That is why articles like these are pure junk. Can't measure football the way you can baseball.

[dw49]

Let me ask you and please answer honestly as I know Manning is your favorite player and I respect your opinion a lot. Aren't articles like this embarrassing? And I am speaking honestly here. In no way do I blame Manning for all of his playoff losses or for some of his playoff wins for that matter. But to have an article like this post chart after chart trying to explain away 11 playoff losses borders on pathetic. His record is what it is. And I do think the criticism he receives is unfair at times but the praises as well. He said himself yesterday that his 51 TDs were a team accomplishment yet we put that whole record on him but playoff losses aren't on him? The double standard is stunning. 

 

 

I hate these manning Brady things but your post is so bad , I have to join in. 

 

1) You constantly give Brady the credit for winning 3 SB's and anything else good about the past dozen NE pat years. You go back and forth with the "Brady thing and Team game" constantly to suite what you might be arguing. No huge deal , everyone does it , but don't call people out on it. 

 

2) The point that some people are saying Peyton is great because he threw 51 TD's in 15 games but then blame many of the  playoff failures on no running game and a bad defense happens to be very defendable. Manning may have said "it was a team thing " but lets face it , how many would Joe Flacco throw if he were on that same Denver team ? Probably in the low 30's. Also if the Colts had a bit more balance and a better coaching staff , I'm  sure they would have had a better post season record.

[amfootball]

I hate these manning Brady things but your post is so bad , I have to join in. 

 

1) You constantly give Brady the credit for winning 3 SB's and anything else good about the past dozen NE pat years. You go back and forth with the "Brady thing and Team game" constantly to suite what you might be arguing. No huge deal , everyone does it , but don't call people out on it. 

 

2) The point that some people are saying Peyton is great because he threw 51 TD's in 15 games but then blame many of the  playoff failures on no running game and a bad defense happens to be very defendable. Manning may have said "it was a team thing " but lets face it , how many would Joe Flacco throw if he were on that same Denver team ? Probably in the low 30's. Also if the Colts had a bit more balance and a better coaching staff , I'm  sure they would have had a better post season record.

To your first point - who on earth does not give credit to a SB winning QB, let alone a three time winner? I have repeatedly said that he was not only the reason but we all know in NE, no Brady=no rings. QB is the most important position on the field and has the most direct impact on wins and losses.

 

To your second point, sorry you can't have it both ways. Give all the credit to Manning for his 51 Tds and none for the playoff losses. He has a great year this year with a great team around him. Best receiving corp in the league. He said so himself. His playoff losses as I have also said repeatedly are not all on him but neither are his playoff wins for that matter. To try to justify 11 losses and take all the blame off of him is pure insanity.

[Superman]

Exactly. That is why articles like these are pure junk. Can't measure football the way you can baseball.

 

Did you even read my post? 

[amfootball]

Did you even read my post? 

Yep.

[Superman]

Yep.

 

I must not have made my point clear. 

[jvan1973]

Exactly. That is why articles like these are pure junk. Can't measure football the way you can baseball.

Just like you can't compare competitiveness from one player from one sport to a player from a different sport

[Shane Bond]

Belichick

Defense

Video Cameras

Tuck Rule

 

Equates to 3 SBs

 

 

Take the defense and video cameras out - we all know the results.

 

Brady was irrelevant - System QB. Big deal.

[Shane Bond]

I will take 1 SB over 3 SBs with asterick any day

[Shane Bond]

Just like you can't compare competitiveness from one player from one sport to a player from a different sport

Check mate

[hawkeyes]

He just got the Td record and now we need to start justifying his post-season too?  The insecurities being to creep in again ....

 

That's totally out of place; bayone is one of the biggest Manning fans out there.

[Susie Q]

He just got the Td record and now we need to start justifying his post-season too?  The insecurities being to creep in again ....

How am I not surprised that you were the first Pats Fan to reply to this thread.      Go figure it's kind of like you have these threads on speed dial so to speak.  

[Shane Bond]

How am I not surprised that you were the first Pats Fan to reply to this thread.      Go figure it's kind of like you have these threads on speed dial so to speak.

 

Susie - Your usage of emoticons are priceless

[Susie Q]

 

 

not insecure, i post them as e-mailed to me and have time just like the schedule i just did, also thought was interesting as was from a Pats fan view

 

Believe me insecurities are not part of my persona Re myself nor my TEam nor Peyton,

 

Been though way to much in life &   always  handle things,

 

On Here just do so  when com,e across them & when I can timewise

 

By the way Chris moretenson on NFL insiders just said Peyton is forced tio get the points & the record TD's do to the bad D and says the d may be a problem in playoffs esp now without Von Miller ,also record was so n big as no Clady

 

Mort also says people he speaks to doubtsw & he doubts the Broncos can overcopme the D injuries and win the SB

 

Hope u listened to it so u know i write only what i read or hear

 

You don't have to justify your post or make excuses bayone because most of is like your post.  Can't please everyone especially if Peyton is in the post.  Keep up the good work on what your being sent.

[Susie Q]

Susie - Your usage of emoticons are priceless

Thank You

[John Dee]

No Myth..  Manning has had a few MASSIVE statistical games in the playoffs.     BUT, he has also had a few duds.

 

The ONLY year Manning and Indy WON the SB ...   Manning SUCKED in the post season, with the exception of ONE half. 

 

Peyton Manning is the best QB I have EVER seen play, but he is not the most clutch QB come post season.

 

NFL QB's are judged on WINS...    and Manning has ONE big win, that the running game earned him.