Free agents vs. draft choices

[oldunclemark]

      We all talk about who we'd like to acquire and one thing strikes me.

We have a lot of negative baggage we assign to free agents.

 

For example..to me at age 26,  Darius Heyward Bey, a former No.1 with 1,000-yard potential, is obviously better than any receiver we'd draft late in the first round becase he's a proven veteran performer....and at $3 mil max.... ..he's cheaper and more of (if not totally) a sure thing than anyone we'd draft in the first round..

 

Management is clearly not married to the draft..despite the 5 starters we picked up last season and it might signal the way the game has changed.  If you think you can evaluate other team's players at the NFL level ...then trade a 2nd rounder for an age 25 Vontae Davis....

 

Maybe with restructuring of contracts and salary caps, you build your team through free agency now.....not the draft..

Maybe the draft is only for rebuilding losers and depth for contenders?

 

Your thoughts?

[hoosiercoltsfan82]

Anytime you can pick up a quality talented free agent under the age of 30 its a good thing.  Especially when that player meets an existing need.  

[#BringBobBack]

that seems to be the way things are turning but i think the draft is still more key than free agency because of the excitement of new talent replacing the old and changing the game free agency is more for safety and less exciting but i still believe the draft is a huge part of structuring a team you brought up our draft choices last year they structured our new team and i believe the same may occur this year with our offensive line and linebackers

[#BringBobBack]

that seems to be the way things are turning but i think the draft is still more key than free agency because of the excitement of new talent replacing the old and changing the game free agency is more for safety and less exciting but i still believe the draft is a huge part of structuring a team you brought up our draft choices last year they structured our new team and i believe the same may occur this year with our offensive line and linebackers

 

      We all talk about who we'd like to acquire and one thing strikes me.

We have a lot of negative baggage we assign to free agents.

 

For example..to me at age 26,  Darius Heyward Bey, a former No.1 with 1,000-yard potential, is obviously better than any receiver we'd draft late in the first round becase he's a proven veteran performer....and at $3 mil max.... ..he's cheaper and more of (if not totally) a sure thing than anyone we'd draft in the first round..

 

Management is clearly not married to the draft..despite the 5 starters we picked up last season and it might signal the way the game has changed.  If you think you can evaluate other team's players at the NFL level ...then trade a 2nd rounder for an age 25 Vontae Davis....

 

Maybe with restructuring of contracts and salary caps, you build your team through free agency now.....not the draft..

Maybe the draft is only for rebuilding losers and depth for contenders?

 

Your thoughts?

Davis was an amazing pick up though but idf like to see Butler start oppposite him had huge talent last year better than Toler in my opinion

[PrincetonTiger]

if you have a ton of cash and or needs(Colts) FA is good

 

If you are missing one piece FA is the way to go

 

 

If you are trying to build a team or add depth or need a young replacement the draft is the best spot

[SOMDColtsfan]

IMO, the "Polian era" Colts were built through the draft and then died via the draft. They did not adapt and use free agency to compliment the team . Always felt the Colts were 1 or 2 good free agents from dominating the league and getting those elusive championships

[FlyLikeTY]

Also, remember that the contracts given to most of the FA's are front loaded so if they do not pan out, they can be cut without any huge cap repercussions. 

Also, in the case of DHB, if Brazil and/or a rookie proves they should be playing I wouldn't think the coaching staff would hesitate to make it happen. 

[jskinnz]

 

We all talk about who we'd like to acquire and one thing strikes me.

We have a lot of negative baggage we assign to free agents.

 

For example..to me at age 26,  Darius Heyward Bey, a former No.1 with 1,000-yard potential, is obviously better than any receiver we'd draft late in the first round becase he's a proven veteran performer....and at $3 mil max.... ..he's cheaper and more of (if not totally) a sure thing than anyone we'd draft in the first round..

 

Management is clearly not married to the draft..despite the 5 starters we picked up last season and it might signal the way the game has changed.  If you think you can evaluate other team's players at the NFL level ...then trade a 2nd rounder for an age 25 Vontae Davis....

 

Maybe with restructuring of contracts and salary caps, you build your team through free agency now.....not the draft..

Maybe the draft is only for rebuilding losers and depth for contenders?

 

Your thoughts?

I think calling DHB an automatic upgrade over anything the Colts would get in the late 1st round is a pretty big overstatement on his qualities. The fact that he is as young as he is and only signed a one year deal tells me there is nothing certain about him. He really has proven nothing to this point. Now you can say he lacked decent QB play but he also failed to distinguish himself as well.

Good teams are always - always going to use the draft as the cornerstone of building the franchise. If all goes well with your selections, the splurge the Colts made this year is a very infrequent happening. FA should be used as nothing more than a supplement to your roster.

[BOTT]

Every team wants to build thru the draft. The use of free agency just depends on your situation.

[jskinnz]

 

Every team wants to build thru the draft. The use of free agency just depends on your situation.

 

Thank you. I believe the same and said as much. It is just that economy of words clearly favors you.

[throwing BBZ]

 I think calling DHB an automatic upgrade over anything the Colts would get in the late 1st round is a pretty big overstatement on his qualities. The fact that he is as young as he is and only signed a one year deal tells me there is nothing certain about him. He really has proven nothing to this point. Now you can say he lacked decent QB play but he also failed to distinguish himself as well.

Good teams are always - always going to use the draft as the cornerstone of building the franchise. If all goes well with your selections, the splurge the Colts made this year is a very infrequent happening. FA should be used as nothing more than a supplement to your roster.

 

 

 Chuckle.

 Our staff saw Nothing Proven in DHB and gave him Millions over many other choices.

[Warhawk]

IMO, in my philosophy, the purpose of free agency is to set up your draft.  What you should do (and what, thankfully, the Colts appear to be doing this year) is try to fill every hole you have in free agency, not by looking for lots of long-term solutions, but by mostly signing guys who could variously be described as "competent" or "acceptable" or "JAGs" (preferably ones who at least have the potential to grab the metaphorical bull by its metaphorical horns), who you would be comfortable holding down that position temporarily, to low-risk and short-term contracts.  That, in turn, allows you to go into the draft, not trying to fill gaping holes at one or two positions, but instead trying to get the best player available in order to "upgrade" the JAG you currently have at that position.  I think that's how you build for long-term success - you don't put all your eggs in a basket you haven't inspected yet, you don't get buried under an avalanche of dead money, and you don't end up reaching for mediocre guys in the draft because of need (or, arguably worse, overpaying to trade up for mediocre guys in the draft because of need).

 

Essentially, you want to make smart, value, low-risk moves in FA such that, by the time the draft rolls around, you already have a team of players you would be at least comfortable putting on the field next season - then, you can use the draft to make upgrades according to what kind of value you can get based on how the draft shakes out.

[jskinnz]

Glad I could make you chuckle.

 

I don't think you are quite the football savant you obviously believe yourself to be.

 

Clearly the Colts see talent in the guy.  The also are taking a chance on him.  It could be his issues were the result of poor QB play and bad coaching in Oakland.  It also could be the result of him just not being capable enough and never learning to make use of very clear God-given talents.  Tell me, why else does a guy with his measurables only take a relatively low, incentive based deal instead of getting the security of a long contract that all players want?  Because he has not yet proven himself.

 

And let me ask you - who were the other receivers the Colts could have gotten?

 

Personally I like the pick up.  Low risk/ low cost but high reward.  But he is not proven.

[Tark The Shark]

FAs cost bigger money for immediate impact.

 

Draft choices are longer term solutions for less money.

 

A good mix of both can push teams over the hump of contenders to champions.

[NewEra]

IMO, the "Polian era" Colts were built through the draft and then died via the draft. They did not adapt and use free agency to compliment the team . Always felt the Colts were 1 or 2 good free agents from dominating the league and getting those elusive championships

Not only that bit he gave huge contracts to mediocre players that we did have. So glad he is gone.

[Mouthfire]

Glad I could make you chuckle.

 

I don't think you are quite the football savant you obviously believe yourself to be.

 

Clearly the Colts see talent in the guy.  The also are taking a chance on him.  It could be his issues were the result of poor QB play and bad coaching in Oakland.  It also could be the result of him just not being capable enough and never learning to make use of very clear God-given talents.  Tell me, why else does a guy with his measurables only take a relatively low, incentive based deal instead of getting the security of a long contract that all players want?  Because he has not yet proven himself.

 

And let me ask you - who were the other receivers the Colts could have gotten?

 

Personally I like the pick up.  Low risk/ low cost but high reward.  But he is not proven.

1 year, $3 million contract just screams "stop-gap solution".

I'm guessing there's a good chance DHB won't even be on the roster next year. His replacement may even be in the draft this year in the 3rd or 4th round, since you could feasibly get a 2nd round WR talent at those spots.

[Warhawk]

1 year, $3 million contract just screams "stop-gap solution".

I'm guessing there's a good chance DHB won't even be on the roster next year. His replacement may even be in the draft this year in the 3rd or 4th round, since you could feasibly get a 2nd round WR talent at those spots.

 

Nothing wrong with stop-gaps.  They're cheap and they give you flexibility going forward.

 

Without DHB, people around here would be saying we ABSOLUTELY have to draft a WR in an early round this year, because Wayne is getting older and we're a bit thin overall.  With DHB, that gives us the option to maybe draft a WR early, if a guy we like falls, or maybe draft one late and develop him for a year, or maybe wait until next year if the value this year at our picks isn't very good, or maybe DHB shows he can produce at a high level when he's on a less incompetent team.

[jskinnz]

Chuckle.

 Our staff saw Nothing Proven in DHB and gave him Millions over many other choices.

Replied instead of quoted but post # 13 is for you.

[Mouthfire]

Nothing wrong with stop-gaps.  They're cheap and they give you flexibility going forward.

 

Without DHB, people around here would be saying we ABSOLUTELY have to draft a WR in an early round this year, because Wayne is getting older and we're a bit thin overall.  With DHB, that gives us the option to maybe draft a WR early, if a guy we like falls, or maybe draft one late and develop him for a year, or maybe wait until next year if the value this year at our picks isn't very good, or maybe DHB shows he can produce at a high level when he's on a less incompetent team.

 

Yep, that sounds about right.  I'm not completely enamored with the WR class this year.  I'd actually rather wait until next year to pick someone up.

[atapcl]

The draft is still the backbone of the team. Free agency is like a bonus to help build the team faster.

[HarassedOffTheSite]

"Free Agents vs Draft Choices"

 

I'll take both.

[oldunclemark]

  This is what I mean by baggage...You judged Bey against an unnamed late 1st draft choice who has no flaws because we dont know who he is. Bey almost gained 1,000 yards one season...(2011) and you say he has proven nothing.....because you have seen him play and analyzed  him as being mediocre....which you can do when we know who we're talking about  .

That's exactly the point I was trying to make... 

Judging someone with a track record against some nameless faceless maybe...is always off logic...

because you're judging a reality against a fantasy

 

The real point is...Times have changed. It seems you build through free agency..now.

With a free agent..you know exactly what you are getting and you either want it or you dont. Draft choices are guesses.

We're clearly taking proven commodities this off season.

 

 

 I think calling DHB an automatic upgrade over anything the Colts would get in the late 1st round is a pretty big overstatement on his qualities. The fact that he is as young as he is and only signed a one year deal tells me there is nothing certain about him. He really has proven nothing to this point. Now you can say he lacked decent QB play but he also failed to distinguish himself as well.

Good teams are always - always going to use the draft as the cornerstone of building the franchise. If all goes well with your selections, the splurge the Colts made this year is a very infrequent happening. FA should be used as nothing more than a supplement to your roster.

[MikeVander]

I like picking up players from FA and getting people you know will work out and can handle the NFL pressure. Though, if you are to become of the truly "great" teams, then you have to get lucky in the draft. 

[NewEra]

I like picking up players from FA and getting people you know will work out and can handle the NFL pressure. Though, if you are to become of the truly "great" teams, then you have to get lucky in the draft.

Usually great teams have a bunch more high priced veterans. Hence the need and importance of the draft for them.

[NewEra]

I like picking up players from FA and getting people you know will work out and can handle the NFL pressure. Though, if you are to become of the truly "great" teams, then you have to get lucky in the draft.

Usually great teams have a bunch more high priced veterans. Hence the need and importance of the draft for them.

[oldunclemark]

The draft is still the backbone of the team. Free agency is like a bonus to help build the team faster.

Obviously for us LAST season but not this season...  Like I said, maybe you RE-Build throught he draft..but so many more under-30 players are availbale than used to be.....Look at what Indy did..Look at what Denver did..  And what SF did

[atapcl]

I think it will be this season too. It should always be based on drafting good players otherwise a team will suffer because of age and injuries.

Obviously for us LAST season but not this season...  Like I said, maybe you RE-Build throught he draft..but so many more under-30 players are availbale than used to be.....Look at what Indy did..Look at what Denver did..  And what SF did

[LockeDown]

When is the next time we will have 43 million dollars to spend in FA?  Not soon.  This was part of the plan when Irsay decided to let everyone go and start over.  From here on out, it will be a FA here and there as we need them.  The draft will always be the backbone though.

[LockeDown]

Also, DHB is not what I thought.  Apparently he is a hard working young man who takes his craft seriously and was beloved by RAider fans...which in itself is hard to believe.  I think he has the chance to be more than a 1 year player.  In fact, I'm going out on a limb and say we resign him after next year.

[MrNLM]

      We all talk about who we'd like to acquire and one thing strikes me.

We have a lot of negative baggage we assign to free agents.

 

For example..to me at age 26,  Darius Heyward Bey, a former No.1 with 1,000-yard potential, is obviously better than any receiver we'd draft late in the first round becase he's a proven veteran performer....and at $3 mil max.... ..he's cheaper and more of (if not totally) a sure thing than anyone we'd draft in the first round..

 

Management is clearly not married to the draft..despite the 5 starters we picked up last season and it might signal the way the game has changed.  If you think you can evaluate other team's players at the NFL level ...then trade a 2nd rounder for an age 25 Vontae Davis....

 

Maybe with restructuring of contracts and salary caps, you build your team through free agency now.....not the draft..

Maybe the draft is only for rebuilding losers and depth for contenders?

 

Your thoughts?

The game changes slightly all the time. Free agency is not gonna build a team year in and year out because you are subjected to the decisions of other teams and whether a player makes it to free agency or not. Just like the draft... FA can have weak classes... but even in weak classes players go for top dollar or prove it deals. In the draft... weak or not... players come cheap... and have tons of potential and help keep teams budget down.

I agree with others that you cannot logically evaluate/compare a FA veteran to a draft prospect. For example:

Based on your statement about DHB and a 1rd WR talent ...I would assume we could plug in a FA WR that had one decent season and compare him to the draft class of that same year. 2011 comes to mind... Sidney Rice had one good season with the Vikings and went to Seattle for big bucks. Comparing Rice to the 1rd talent of 2011 you wonder why Seattle did what they did... you would have to think if they were willing to give him sooo much cash they would be willing to move up and get Julio at least... and with hindsight we see that Rice is an overpaid #2 WR and Julio is a cheap #1 WR.

Hindsight makes it look too easy... let's simplify this with one thought... if we took a WR in the first round, who would be more likely to be on the team in 2014? My money would be on the 1rd rookie. DHB could have a wonderful year and that would be great but, that just gives him more leverage to leave for more money... considering the notion that our rookie WR would be looking good enough to make DHB expendable because the rookie is playing on the cheap for years to come. Or DHB stinks it up and we move on but, that 1rd kid will still be on our roster for sure.

Free agency will always be a gamble... drafting can be too but, now it is for lower stakes. Free agency will always be about the PLAYER and what he WANTS... drafting will always be about the TEAM and what they NEED. I don't know about you but, I don't see building a team through FA year in and year out as a sound team building strategy as you have mentioned.

[jskinnz]

  This is what I mean by baggage...You judged Bey against an unnamed late 1st draft choice who has no flaws because we dont know who he is. Bey almost gained 1,000 yards one season...(2011) and you say he has proven nothing.....because you have seen him play and analyzed  him as being mediocre....which you can do when we know who we're talking about  .

That's exactly the point I was trying to make... 

Judging someone with a track record against some nameless faceless maybe...is always off logic...

because you're judging a reality against a fantasy

 

The real point is...Times have changed. It seems you build through free agency..now.

With a free agent..you know exactly what you are getting and you either want it or you dont. Draft choices are guesses.

We're clearly taking proven commodities this off season.

 

Mark - DHB is a low risk, low cost high reward player.  The odds are 50/50 at best that he is on the 2014 rosterThinking otherwise is pure folly.  They are very likely to draft a WR this year - DHB is simply a stop gap.

 

You missed the larger point of this offseason.  It is the exception and not the rule.  Period.  They have money to spend.  Why?  Because recent drafts under the previous regime failed to produce.  Therefore aging players were kept longer than they should have and at a high cost.  The result was the perfect storm that allowed the Colts to spend big coin this offseason.  But like I said in the first post - if the team drafts well, that kind of splurge will be unnecessary and rare.

 

The draft will ALWAYS be the lifeblood of any organization.  The cost is low.  You get to know your own guys.  You are able to draft guys that fit your plan.  FA should never be viewed as anything other than a supplement.  I think you will see that with Grigson once he gets the Colts past this year.

[Superman]

The result was the perfect storm that allowed the Colts to spend big coin this offseason.  But like I said in the first post - if the team drafts well, that kind of splurge will be unnecessary and rare.

 

The draft will ALWAYS be the lifeblood of any organization.  The cost is low.  You get to know your own guys.  You are able to draft guys that fit your plan.  FA should never be viewed as anything other than a supplement.  I think you will see that with Grigson once he gets the Colts past this year.

 

Just to highlight what you're saying, we have the following guys who will be free agents in 2014:

Patrick Angerer

Antoine Bethea

Sergio Brown

Donald Brown

Kavell Conner

Vontae Davis

Aubrayo Franklin

Josh Gordy

Lawrence Guy

Kellen Heard

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Justin Hickman

Joe Lefeged

Jeff Linkenbach

Scott Lutrus

Ricardo Mathews

Pat McAfee

Mike McGlynn

Brandon McKinney

Fili Moala

Joe Reitz

Weslye Saunders

Lawrence Sidbury

Martin Tevaseu

Cassius Vaughn

Adam Vinatieri

 

I bolded the players I think have even a reasonable chance of being resigned after this season. McAfee is tagged this year, but we might reach a long term deal with him before the season starts.

 

As of right now, we are projected to have around $40m in cap space going into 2014, pending new contracts for this year's draft picks and collegiate free agents. There are also pending details on the contracts for some of our signings this year, regarding Year 2 base salaries and so on. Figure on $28-30m, all told. But if we spend money on retaining our own free agents, that will cut into that number. We'll still have enough cap space to be players in free agency if there's someone we really want, but we're not going to go out and sign 9 free agents every year. Like you said, this was a perfect storm.

 

Starting next season, we'll be much more restrictive in our use of free agency. Not excluding it entirely like Polian did in his later years, but we won't be anywhere near as active as we were this year.

[oldunclemark]

I'm talkin bargain guys, Lock....

 

WE have a lot of guys on one year and 2-year deals...

 

WE grabbed Avery.....didnt like him that much..he's gone    

 

 

Zbikowksi...gave him a shot..now he's out of town....Satele...Redding....liked  'em..

 

Staton one year..out...Out LB from Canada..Our backup center who everybody loves. How'd we get 'em?

 

..if you look at all of our players.....I dont think we acquired the majority in the draft...

 

Saying some thing 'always will be' is l;ike saying that you 'have to establish the run' to score points consistently

 

The game is changing before our eyes..

 

When is the next time we will have 43 million dollars to spend in FA?  Not soon.  This was part of the plan when Irsay decided to let everyone go and start over.  From here on out, it will be a FA here and there as we need them.  The draft will always be the backbone though.

[Superman]

I'm talkin bargain guys, Lock....

 

WE have a lot of guys on one year and 2-year deals...

 

WE grabbed Avery.....didnt like him that much..he's gone    

 

 

Zbikowksi...gave him a shot..now he's out of town....Satele...Redding....liked  'em..

 

Staton one year..out...Out LB from Canada..Our backup center who everybody loves. How'd we get 'em?

 

..if you look at all of our players.....I dont think we acquired the majority in the draft...

 

Saying some thing 'always will be' is l;ike saying that you 'have to establish the run' to score points consistently

 

The game is changing before our eyes..

 

Do you remember how many guys we had under contract this time last year? We hardly had half a roster. And then we had a lot of free agents this season as well.

 

It's true that we'll continue to have high yearly turnover, but there's a difference between primary free agency and roster filling moves, which is what a lot of our moves last season were. AQ Shipley wasn't a primary free agency move. Jerrell Freeman wasn't either. Those are the kind of moves that every team makes every year, even the old Colts under Bill Polian. But going out on the first day of free agency and signing guys for long term, big money contracts isn't something that every team does. And I don't think it's something the Colts are going to do very often moving forward.

[esmort]

With some salaries continuing to sky rocket in comparison to the salary cap I think we may see FA and short term contracts become a more important and even essential component of building a successful team compared to how they were used in the past.

[GoColts8818]

Look around the league and you'll just about every sustained good team is built threw the draft. While they might add a peace here or there during free agency they built the core of the team threw the draft.  I think in the end Grigson will be more active in free agency than Polian was but make no mistake he's still going to try to put together the core of the team threw the draft and has already started that. 

[Freenyfan102]

look at the QB situation in Oakland and you realize why he has not have a 1000 yard season yet

[crazycolt1]

Also, remember that the contracts given to most of the FA's are front loaded so if they do not pan out, they can be cut without any huge cap repercussions. 

Also, in the case of DHB, if Brazil and/or a rookie proves they should be playing I wouldn't think the coaching staff would hesitate to make it happen. 

I agree with the front loaded contracts after the cap hell the Colts went through with back loaded contracts of the Polian years. I also think we will see a few different offensive line ups with the wide receivers. As it stands right now we have 8 WRs going into camp. I think DHB will improve a lot on a better team. His ability to have yards after the catch is huge. 

[crazycolt1]

 

 Chuckle.

 Our staff saw Nothing Proven in DHB and gave him Millions over many other choices.

Here is a comparison-  DHB at 3 million and Wallace at 10 million.  DHB stats- 606 yards and 5 TDs.  Wallace stats- 836 yards and 8 TDs.  Wallace had 4 more drops that DHB.  I think with the difference between 3 and 10 million DHB might be a better deal than Wallace. Wallace was on a much better team than DHB also. 

[Insert Colts Pun Here]

      We all talk about who we'd like to acquire and one thing strikes me.

We have a lot of negative baggage we assign to free agents.

 

For example..to me at age 26,  Darius Heyward Bey, a former No.1 with 1,000-yard potential, is obviously better than any receiver we'd draft late in the first round becase he's a proven veteran performer....and at $3 mil max.... ..he's cheaper and more of (if not totally) a sure thing than anyone we'd draft in the first round..

 

Management is clearly not married to the draft..despite the 5 starters we picked up last season and it might signal the way the game has changed.  If you think you can evaluate other team's players at the NFL level ...then trade a 2nd rounder for an age 25 Vontae Davis....

 

Maybe with restructuring of contracts and salary caps, you build your team through free agency now.....not the draft..

Maybe the draft is only for rebuilding losers and depth for contenders?

 

Your thoughts?

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.