Talib Speculation

[dw49]

Big blow to NE defense if happens as follows.....

 

 

 

 

A source tells CSN New England that the Patriots are "somewhat reluctant" to offer impending free agent Aqib Talib a multi-year contract.

Thanks to his history of off-field issues and questionable work ethic, the Pats prefer to sign Talib to a one-year deal. They understandably have questions about how he'd "handle" a long-term contract and boatload of cash, a la Albert Haynesworth. However, New England is unlikely to have that luxury as Talib is the clear No. 1 corner available on the market and is a good bet to attract lucrative multi-year offers. It's a hairy situation for Bill Belichick, as he's getting really thin at corner. Kyle Arrington is also a free agent.

Source: CSN New England

Feb 5 - 11:34 AM

• Player Outlook
• Game Log
• Career Stats
• Draft Advice

 

 

[dw49]

Sorry .. wrong forum.

[GoPats]

Talib really solidified the secondary for the Patriots, and losing him early in the Ravens game had a huge impact on NE's ability to handle Boldin and their passing game.

 

Talk is, they may use the tag on him to keep him around for one more year. If he earns a contract after that, cool. If he doesn't, it gives them time to find and/or develop someone else. I'd personally like to see him back, even if he is a bit of a risk. Very talented guy, and brings elements (mainly size) to their secondary that they don't otherwise have.

[IcEWoLF]

I think they will also tag him too, we need to see if he can last a season without injuries...he has been injured all year.

Talib was an instant upgrade to our secondary. We drafted great defensive players all these years, yet we always fail at drafting a dominant corner back.

If the Jets let Reevis walk, I think NE should go after him. 

Can you Imagine how good our defense would be with Talib and Reevis healthy all year long?

 

On a separate note.

I think we should trade Welker to the Raiders so we could get another 1st or 2nd round picks (we talking about the Raiders here guys lol, the same raiders that gave up 1st round pick for Seymour)

 

Welker is a great system receiver, but god, the passes he dropped for us this year and last year were crucial...

 

Brady needs a #1 receiver that can go deep and get the ball. We need a Julio Jones.

[dw49]

I think they will also tag him too, we need to see if he can last a season without injuries...he has been injured all year.

Talib was an instant upgrade to our secondary. We drafted great defensive players all these years, yet we always fail at drafting a dominant corner back.

If the Jets let Reevis walk, I think NE should go after him. 

Can you Imagine how good our defense would be with Talib and Reevis healthy all year long?

 

On a separate note.

I think we should trade Welker to the Raiders so we could get another 1st or 2nd round picks (we talking about the Raiders here guys lol, the same raiders that gave up 1st round pick for Seymour)

 

Welker is a great system receiver, but god, the passes he dropped for us this year and last year were crucial...

 

Brady needs a #1 receiver that can go deep and get the ball. We need a Julio Jones.

 

 

 

Man... how much can you guys keep soending without going over the cap ? Talib would be around 10 mill to franchise. You have to keep the RT. He'll cost around 8 mill per years. Brady's cap hit is 20 mill. Plus there's Welker and other free agents that contributed to your team. I'm sure he can be franchised as you suggest but I would bet the Pats will "spring a few leaks" as far as keeping other important talent there. 

 

Also , I agree with you guys that are saying hemade a big differfence. I guess obvs as I did say it would ahv e a vey big effect if they can't retain him. Anyway.. it's a brutal tough call.

[Superman]

The Pats are projected to have about $19m in cap space in 2013. I'm assuming they are going to let Welker walk. They've spent a lot of money on the offensive line in the past couple years, and Solder is coming up in a couple years. While Vollmer is important, they might not want to pay him the money he could get as a free agent. The OL tag is $9.7m in 2013. That might happen. There's also room to adjust some other contracts, like Mankins, Wilfork, even Brady again.

 

But back to Talib, the CB tag is $10.7m. I think it would be more cost effective for the Pats to sign him to a four year deal, even at $10m/year -- which is highly unlikely for Talib, I think -- than to tag him for 2013.

[Iron Colt]

They are well under the cap. They seem to always be. If they resign everybody, that would get them really close the cap.

But do they do that? They probably have s 3 year window now with Brady so thdy will probably want to load for bear. Will also be interesting to see how much longer Belichick wants to coach. Hes 61, past his coaching prime but still a fine coach.

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

IMO

 

Tom Brady  drafted in 2000  has excelled how much longer is he a Patriot ? his window of opportunity is quickly closing . The last few years the Patriot defense has looked as bad if not worse than the Colts . If they don't figure out a way to keep Talib  they'll just be another good regular season team .

[jvan1973]

They are well under the cap. They seem to always be. If they resign everybody, that would get them really close the cap.

But do they do that? They probably have s 3 year window now with Brady so thdy will probably want to load for bear. Will also be interesting to see how much longer Belichick wants to coach. Hes 61, past his coaching prime but still a fine coach.

How sites one become past their coaching prime? Do they forget things they once knew?

[Superman]

How sites one become past their coaching prime? Do they forget things they once knew?

 

I think coaching is becoming a young man's game. It's a 12-14 hour/day gig, for practically 8 months out of the year. Very few days off, very little time to decompress. And as the game changes, coaches have to understand how to adapt. He loses coordinators every other year, so he's often spread pretty thin. Into his early 60s, and having been a coach for so long, I could see Belichick starting to slide a bit. Plus, he's also the de facto GM, so it's double the work.

 

However, he's different from everyone else. I really believe that. There are guys who are really smart football minds, but they don't engross themselves in the game the way Belichick seems to. He's uber-competitive, he's equally as proficient coaching the offense as he is coaching the defense, he can motivate on an individual basis and a group basis, and he's not afraid to make radical adjustments when he thinks they're necessary. I really do believe he's the best NFL coach ever. And he seems to be in good health, and as lively as ever.

 

I don't know how you determine that someone is past their coaching prime, but I'm pretty sure Belichick in decline is twice as good as the average NFL coach.

[Iron Colt]

Its the same reasons that chessmasters arent old men. Age effects the nerves and mental stamina. Belichick does seem to have a long candle wick but I wouldnt put him in the Landry or Shula category just yet.

[dw49]

The Pats are projected to have about $19m in cap space in 2013. I'm assuming they are going to let Welker walk. They've spent a lot of money on the offensive line in the past couple years, and Solder is coming up in a couple years. While Vollmer is important, they might not want to pay him the money he could get as a free agent. The OL tag is $9.7m in 2013. That might happen. There's also room to adjust some other contracts, like Mankins, Wilfork, even Brady again.

 

But back to Talib, the CB tag is $10.7m. I think it would be more cost effective for the Pats to sign him to a four year deal, even at $10m/year -- which is highly unlikely for Talib, I think -- than to tag him for 2013.

 

 

Depends how much guaranteed money they have to give him. But anything is possible as he's a great cover corner. I've read that Brady could restructure but that means they have to push money into future years. Man that's a pretty iffy issue when dealing with a player turning 36. Maybe he will hit the open market and no one will give him a great deal because of all the "baggage." Can we the swoop and and sign him at a discount ?

 

BTW.. did you see my other posts concerning the exclusive franchise price for Flacco. It is projected to be over 20 Million. I posted the particulars in the Flacco post we discussed Flacco at length. Read when you get a chance and tell me what you think.

[Superman]

Depends how much guaranteed money they have to give him. But anything is possible as he's a great cover corner. I've read that Brady could restructure but that means they have to push money into future years. Man that's a pretty iffy issue when dealing with a player turning 36. Maybe he will hit the open market and no one will give him a great deal because of all the "baggage." Can we the swoop and and sign him at a discount ?

 

BTW.. did you see my other posts concerning the exclusive franchise price for Flacco. It is projected to be over 20 Million. I posted the particulars in the Flacco post we discussed Flacco at length. Read when you get a chance and tell me what you think.

 

Re: franchise tag, I've been meaning to do some reading on that. I think some of that will be cleared up as the NFL gets further into offseason mode.

 

As for Talib, I don't see how guaranteed money becomes a part of the equation. He's trying to get a multi-year deal, as opposed to the one year option the team feels more comfortable with. If they offer him one, I doubt he turns it down in the name of guaranteed money. Could be wrong...

[Jules]

I think they will also tag him too, we need to see if he can last a season without injuries...he has been injured all year.

Talib was an instant upgrade to our secondary. We drafted great defensive players all these years, yet we always fail at drafting a dominant corner back.

If the Jets let Reevis walk, I think NE should go after him. 

Can you Imagine how good our defense would be with Talib and Reevis healthy all year long?

 

On a separate note.

I think we should trade Welker to the Raiders so we could get another 1st or 2nd round picks (we talking about the Raiders here guys lol, the same raiders that gave up 1st round pick for Seymour)

 

Welker is a great system receiver, but god, the passes he dropped for us this year and last year were crucial...

 

Brady needs a #1 receiver that can go deep and get the ball. We need a Julio Jones.

 

We need an AJ Green.

[dw49]

Re: franchise tag, I've been meaning to do some reading on that. I think some of that will be cleared up as the NFL gets further into offseason mode.

 

As for Talib, I don't see how guaranteed money becomes a part of the equation. He's trying to get a multi-year deal, as opposed to the one year option the team feels more comfortable with. If they offer him one, I doubt he turns it down in the name of guaranteed money. Could be wrong...

 

 

What good is a big contract without a large amount guaranteed ? Are you really saying that Talib will be willing to sign a long term deal without at least around 20 million guaranteed ? 

[Superman]

What good is a big contract without a large amount guaranteed ? Are you really saying that Talib will be willing to sign a long term deal without at least around 20 million guaranteed ? 

 

He's got to make his case for a multi-year contract. I think he'll have to make concessions somewhere. Given his circumstances, I don't think he can make the same kind of demands as Carr, Finnegan, Joseph, Gamble, etc., particularly as it pertains to guaranteed money.

 

By the way, I disagree with the way contracts are referred to as guaranteed. "Likely to be paid" is probably the better way to phrase it in a lot of cases.

[dw49]

He's got to make his case for a multi-year contract. I think he'll have to make concessions somewhere. Given his circumstances, I don't think he can make the same kind of demands as Carr, Finnegan, Joseph, Gamble, etc., particularly as it pertains to guaranteed money.

 

By the way, I disagree with the way contracts are referred to as guaranteed. "Likely to be paid" is probably the better way to phrase it in a lot of cases.

 

 

Carr and Finegan had around half there deals guaranteed which was around 25 mill. I agree that Talib will have to take less, that's why i said around 20 million. Now , thats what I say NE would have to give him to sign a long term deal. Otehrwise , IMO , he tries the open market. Now it could very well be that none of the other teams want to guarantee 20 mill and then he signs for less guaranteed money. But no way he signs with NE without worrying about guaranteed money. It's the only thing that really matters in the deal. The money that is not guaranteed is sometimes just play money. 

 

I don't understand your last line . The long term contracts are never referred to as "guaranateed." Do you mean the money that is not guaranteed is "likely to be paid." The only guaranteed contracts would be the one or maybe two year deals that "guarantee" the specified salary for that year or two. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you have there

[BOTT]

Its the same reasons that chessmasters arent old men. Age effects the nerves and mental stamina. Belichick does seem to have a long candle wick but I wouldnt put him in the Landry or Shula category just yet.

Not sure i would compare guys with PE degrees to chessmasters. They probably just lose some of their passion for it.

[ReMeDy]

How the Pats stay under the cap is a mystery to me too. Credit their staff for somehow managing it. They had Talib, Brady, Gronk, Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Lloyd, Wilfork, Mayo, Solder, and two other potential starting QB's in Mallet and Kafka.

 

Their signing of Jake Ballard away from the Giants was also brilliant. Patriots seemingly keep him just to mock the Giants, lol.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8047590/tom-coughlin-new-york-giants-frustrated-jake-ballard-claimed-new-england-patriots

 

The league talks about parity, but then why is it, despite the Patriots making the playoffs every year, do they get big free agent acquisitions? You could argue people want to play for the Pats. To that I say Goodell needs to do something. The rich keep getting richer? Not the kind of parity I want to see. If I want that, I'll watch college football.

[Superman]

Carr and Finegan had around half there deals guaranteed which was around 25 mill. I agree that Talib will have to take less, that's why i said around 20 million. Now , thats what I say NE would have to give him to sign a long term deal. Otehrwise , IMO , he tries the open market. Now it could very well be that none of the other teams want to guarantee 20 mill and then he signs for less guaranteed money. But no way he signs with NE without worrying about guaranteed money. It's the only thing that really matters in the deal. The money that is not guaranteed is sometimes just play money. 

 

I don't understand your last line . The long term contracts are never referred to as "guaranateed." Do you mean the money that is not guaranteed is "likely to be paid." The only guaranteed contracts would be the one or maybe two year deals that "guarantee" the specified salary for that year or two. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you have there

 

I wouldn't guarantee Talib $20m, given his recent history. But I do think his talent is comparable. I was thinking four years, $40m, $6m upfront bonuses, fully guarantee his first year's salary, and then put a roster/option bonus in for 2014. Good behavior triggers more guarantees and a long term deal. If not, it's a one year contract.

 

As for the guaranteed money deal, the best example I can think of is Drew Brees' contract. It's reported as $60m guaranteed, but really it's not. It's something like $38m guaranteed, and the other $22m is likely to be paid, so they report it as guaranteed. I can't remember the exact numbers and details, but basically, the cap penalty for releasing him before all the guarantees trigger is pretty astronomical, so he's very likely to be paid that full $60m "guaranteed" portion. But it's not guaranteed. My thinking is that he's likely to be paid the full value of the contract, given his age, position and recent performance, so why not call the whole thing "guaranteed"?

 

To me, "guaranteed" means, aside from a contract breach, this is what will be paid, regardless. 

[dw49]

I wouldn't guarantee Talib $20m, given his recent history. But I do think his talent is comparable. I was thinking four years, $40m, $6m upfront bonuses, fully guarantee his first year's salary, and then put a roster/option bonus in for 2014. Good behavior triggers more guarantees and a long term deal. If not, it's a one year contract.

 

As for the guaranteed money deal, the best example I can think of is Drew Brees' contract. It's reported as $60m guaranteed, but really it's not. It's something like $38m guaranteed, and the other $22m is likely to be paid, so they report it as guaranteed. I can't remember the exact numbers and details, but basically, the cap penalty for releasing him before all the guarantees trigger is pretty astronomical, so he's very likely to be paid that full $60m "guaranteed" portion. But it's not guaranteed. My thinking is that he's likely to be paid the full value of the contract, given his age, position and recent performance, so why not call the whole thing "guaranteed"?

 

To me, "guaranteed" means, aside from a contract breach, this is what will be paid, regardless. 

  Got ya.. your saying a contract that is reported to have X amount of guaranteed money might in reality have a different amount that is actually guaranteed. Yea... I comprendo that thought and I now understand what you were saying.

[GoPats]

How the Pats stay under the cap is a mystery to me too. Credit their staff for somehow managing it. They had Talib, Brady, Gronk, Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Lloyd, Wilfork, Mayo, Solder, and two other potential starting QB's in Mallet and Kafka.

 

Their signing of Jake Ballard away from the Giants was also brilliant. Patriots seemingly keep him just to mock the Giants, lol.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8047590/tom-coughlin-new-york-giants-frustrated-jake-ballard-claimed-new-england-patriots

 

The league talks about parity, but then why is it, despite the Patriots making the playoffs every year, do they get big free agent acquisitions? You could argue people want to play for the Pats. To that I say Goodell needs to do something. The rich keep getting richer? Not the kind of parity I want to see. If I want that, I'll watch college football.

 

Just curious, what do you mean by that?

 

I see this differently I guess. The Patriots play by the same rules (cue Spygate joke here!) as the other 31 teams in the league. It's like school... you have a classroom of 32 students, give them a test, and some of them will pass, some will fail. Some will ace it. Most of that is tied to how well they paid attention, how hard they studied, and how much effort they put into it. And maybe a shred of luck. ;)

[JerodMayo51]

I think they will also tag him too, we need to see if he can last a season without injuries...he has been injured all year.

Talib was an instant upgrade to our secondary. We drafted great defensive players all these years, yet we always fail at drafting a dominant corner back.

If the Jets let Reevis walk, I think NE should go after him. 

Can you Imagine how good our defense would be with Talib and Reevis healthy all year long?

 

On a separate note.

I think we should trade Welker to the Raiders so we could get another 1st or 2nd round picks (we talking about the Raiders here guys lol, the same raiders that gave up 1st round pick for Seymour)

 

Welker is a great system receiver, but god, the passes he dropped for us this year and last year were crucial...

 

Brady needs a #1 receiver that can go deep and get the ball. We need a Julio Jones.

 

Theres no way they will sign all 3 of their Aces in Talib, Vollmer and Welker.  I don't see them using the franchise tag on Welker at 11.5 million when Aaron Hernandez just rented a house out west next to Brady to train in the offseason.  I think between Hernandez and Edelman, they'll be able to replace most of the production that Welker had as a duo.  Sure the offense will dip a bit, but its been one of the best offenses in the entire NFL for a long time, it survived and won superbowls before Welker and im sure it will continue to perform well after Welker with Brady at the helm.

 

Vollmer is really interesting, because hes a great RT when healthy, an All-Pro RT that can also play LT if needed, but hes going to demand top T money if he hits the open market, but at 9.7 million for an OT with the franchise tag, that may be the most realistic scenario for him to ensure that they have more time to try and negotiate a long term deal with him, and at worse get him for 1 more year to protect Brady. 

 

Talib is a very risky signing... I think that they're going to let Talib test the market in FA because its going to be very interesting to see how teams approach long term deals with Talib..  Hes never played a full season since coming into the league, so injuries are a concern for him, as was witnessed by a national audience when he came out of the AFC Championship Game with a strained hammy.  Hes also been suspended 4 games already for violating the leagues substance abuse program, so the next time he tests positive for anything, hes looking at a 1 year long suspension.  I believe teams will offer him a 5/50 type deal, which has been pretty standard for top 10 or so CBs in the league which I think Talib is when healthy, but teams are going to have to have tons of incentives in there based on playing time for him to see all of that money.  I would also put a clause in there that gets the team out of the contract with minimal cap hit should he fail another drug test and be suspended for an entire year.

 

 

I'd love to see Welker back, but unfortunately that won't happen unless hes willing to sign for like $8 million or so a year.  He is worth much more than that based on his production throughout the years, and some team will definitely offer him more...  He doesn't owe the Patriots anything at this point, so I wouldn't hold it against him for going after the most money since hes never had a big payday once in his entire career and there is no one more deserving of one than Wes Welker.

 

Whatever they give Vollmer, they're going to have to give at least that to Solder in 2 years as well, but I think that's a good investment to have 2 top tier offensive tackles that can play on either side in today's NFL.  Thats great versatility and depth, plus you have to keep Brady healthy and keep all of those premiere pass rushers off of him if you plan on getting 3-4 more years out of him.

 

 

If I was the General Manager, my approach would be:

 

1) Franchise Vollmer

2) Offer Welker a $8m or so a year deal over 4 years and then let him test the market.  Chances are he will get a mega contract from someone else.

3) Wait on Talib and see what kind of contract offers he gets from other teams.  That will determine if the market puts him in the 5/50 range which I predict will happen, then you can offer him a 4/40 type deal with lots of incentives based on playing time, along with a team option on the 5th year that would bump his salary up to top 5 in the league CB money. There is always the chance that one of those teams with tons and tons of cap space might offer him even more than that.. if thats the case, he just has to decide if he wants a really good deal and play on a championship contender, or the very best deal and end up god knows where.  I wouldn't hold it against him either way, but obviously would prefer he pick us!

[dw49]

Theres no way they will sign all 3 of their Aces in Talib, Vollmer and Welker.  I don't see them using the franchise tag on Welker at 11.5 million when Aaron Hernandez just rented a house out west next to Brady to train in the offseason.  I think between Hernandez and Edelman, they'll be able to replace most of the production that Welker had as a duo.  Sure the offense will dip a bit, but its been one of the best offenses in the entire NFL for a long time, it survived and won superbowls before Welker and im sure it will continue to perform well after Welker with Brady at the helm.

 

Vollmer is really interesting, because hes a great RT when healthy, an All-Pro RT that can also play LT if needed, but hes going to demand top T money if he hits the open market, but at 9.7 million for an OT with the franchise tag, that may be the most realistic scenario for him to ensure that they have more time to try and negotiate a long term deal with him, and at worse get him for 1 more year to protect Brady. 

 

Talib is a very risky signing... I think that they're going to let Talib test the market in FA because its going to be very interesting to see how teams approach long term deals with Talib..  Hes never played a full season since coming into the league, so injuries are a concern for him, as was witnessed by a national audience when he came out of the AFC Championship Game with a strained hammy.  Hes also been suspended 4 games already for violating the leagues substance abuse program, so the next time he tests positive for anything, hes looking at a 1 year long suspension.  I believe teams will offer him a 5/50 type deal, which has been pretty standard for top 10 or so CBs in the league which I think Talib is when healthy, but teams are going to have to have tons of incentives in there based on playing time for him to see all of that money.  I would also put a clause in there that gets the team out of the contract with minimal cap hit should he fail another drug test and be suspended for an entire year.

 

 

I'd love to see Welker back, but unfortunately that won't happen unless hes willing to sign for like $8 million or so a year.  He is worth much more than that based on his production throughout the years, and some team will definitely offer him more...  He doesn't owe the Patriots anything at this point, so I wouldn't hold it against him for going after the most money since hes never had a big payday once in his entire career and there is no one more deserving of one than Wes Welker.

 

Whatever they give Vollmer, they're going to have to give at least that to Solder in 2 years as well, but I think that's a good investment to have 2 top tier offensive tackles that can play on either side in today's NFL.  Thats great versatility and depth, plus you have to keep Brady healthy and keep all of those premiere pass rushers off of him if you plan on getting 3-4 more years out of him.

 

 

If I was the General Manager, my approach would be:

 

1) Franchise Vollmer

2) Offer Welker a $8m or so a year deal over 4 years and then let him test the market.  Chances are he will get a mega contract from someone else.

3) Wait on Talib and see what kind of contract offers he gets from other teams.  That will determine if the market puts him in the 5/50 range which I predict will happen, then you can offer him a 4/40 type deal with lots of incentives based on playing time, along with a team option on the 5th year that would bump his salary up to top 5 in the league CB money. There is always the chance that one of those teams with tons and tons of cap space might offer him even more than that.. if thats the case, he just has to decide if he wants a really good deal and play on a championship contender, or the very best deal and end up god knows where.  I wouldn't hold it against him either way, but obviously would prefer he pick us!

 

 

 

Agree with most of the above.

 

No way they let Volmer go. Franchise tag or long term contract. Done deal.

 

I agree they wil at least try to resign Welker and I agree that there is no way he's franchised at 120% and he deosn't get a long term contract for big money. He needs to take something like you suggest to stay in NE. Where i disagree is some team giving hi a "mega contract. He's turning 32 which is just old enough to probably make teams hesitant and some of that production is due to playig in that system with Brady. He could be one of those few guys that tests the market and comes back to sign with his original team. This is not the norm and often the original team doesn't have the cap wiggle to fit that player in due to moves made whie he's "testing" the market.  I say odds are about 30-40% at best that he's a Pat in 2013.

 

Talib.. I could pretty much copy wat you have. I might want to add that he's likely not going to get the contract he's looking for from NE and he will almost certainly see what he can get from one of the other 31 remaining teams. Sometimes this ends up to be not much different than what the original team offered. Could be the case here as the "red flags" you mention are real and teams are not always stupid enough to blow 25 mill in guaranteed money to players with checkered pasts. I'll say that once he hits the market , he'll pretty much for sure sign elsewhere as that's how these scenarios normally play out.

 

So agree with you 1 out of 3 stay with NE. 

[IcEWoLF]

We need an AJ Green.

 

I'd debate with you on that.

 

Julio is a deep threat like AJ, but more physical and has much better hands. AJ Green had a fair amount of passes that he dropped this year.

[IcEWoLF]

Well to summarize everything:

Trade Welker = 90% sure he won't take a pay cut to stay with the Patriots.

Franchise Vollmer = big guy, good at pass protecting & durable.

Talib = Offer him a 3 year deal at 35 mil with bonuses if he performs.

 

 

Welker will be easily be replaced by Hernandez & Edelman. 

 

Patriots draft needs this year would be:

-Dominant WR, we have been discussing about this for 4 years now since the last time Randy Moss performed really well, but since then we had no true deep threat other than Gronk...

-Pass Rusher, I've been disappointed with Chandler Jones, I thought he would be really good at pass rush, but he has been somewhat of a disappointment, and he fades a lot during games, where on other side players like JJ Watt make true impacts on the game and make everyone around him look good.

I'd give Jones another year or two, if we don't see a gradual improvement then cut him or trade him away.

- Middle Linebacker, Spikes is good, but not good in coverage, he can stop the run, but that's about it, he has not been good at pass defending this year.

I'd say convert Mayo back to Middle Linebacker and then add another key Linebacker next to him.

 

 

Now, with everything said, one thing I also want to add is Stevan Ridley is decent, but we could probably pickup another running back, someone that is big, someone that can push the pile. We have too many small running backs.

[Superman]

 

Welker will be easily be replaced by Hernandez & Edelman. 

 

I'm sure the Patriots are capable of performing well without Welker, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that a player who has caught 240 passes for 3,000 yards over the past two seasons would be "easily replaced." He's almost a third of your passing attack.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Superman

[oldunclemark]

How the Pats stay under the cap is a mystery to me too. Credit their staff for somehow managing it. They had Talib, Brady, Gronk, Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Lloyd, Wilfork, Mayo, Solder, and two other potential starting QB's in Mallet and Kafka.

 

Their signing of Jake Ballard away from the Giants was also brilliant. Patriots seemingly keep him just to mock the Giants, lol.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8047590/tom-coughlin-new-york-giants-frustrated-jake-ballard-claimed-new-england-patriots

 

The league talks about parity, but then why is it, despite the Patriots making the playoffs every year, do they get big free agent acquisitions? You could argue people want to play for the Pats. To that I say Goodell needs to do something. The rich keep getting richer? Not the kind of parity I want to see. If I want that, I'll watch college football.

How the Pats stay under the cap is a mystery to me too. Credit their staff for somehow managing it. They had Talib, Brady, Gronk, Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Lloyd, Wilfork, Mayo, Solder, and two other potential starting QB's in Mallet and Kafka.

 

Their signing of Jake Ballard away from the Giants was also brilliant. Patriots seemingly keep him just to mock the Giants, lol.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8047590/tom-coughlin-new-york-giants-frustrated-jake-ballard-claimed-new-england-patriots

 

The league talks about parity, but then why is it, despite the Patriots making the playoffs every year, do they get big free agent acquisitions? You could argue people want to play for the Pats. To that I say Goodell needs to do something. The rich keep getting richer? Not the kind of parity I want to see. If I want that, I'll watch college football.

NE

How the Pats stay under the cap is a mystery to me too. Credit their staff for somehow managing it. They had Talib, Brady, Gronk, Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Lloyd, Wilfork, Mayo, Solder, and two other potential starting QB's in Mallet and Kafka.

 

Their signing of Jake Ballard away from the Giants was also brilliant. Patriots seemingly keep him just to mock the Giants, lol.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8047590/tom-coughlin-new-york-giants-frustrated-jake-ballard-claimed-new-england-patriots

 

The league talks about parity, but then why is it, despite the Patriots making the playoffs every year, do they get big free agent acquisitions? You could argue people want to play for the Pats. To that I say Goodell needs to do something. The rich keep getting richer? Not the kind of parity I want to see. If I want that, I'll watch college football.

NE always does well..(in recent years) but NE doesn't always win...

there's a 'third rail' between dynasties and parity...

....Every league NEEDS power franchises that are consistent....NW, Pitt, balt in the AFC....The NFL needed the Colts to return to prominence...

Consistently strong franchises create major matchups..and bjg matchups make the world go around..

I dont want to see upsets in the NFL playoffs..I want to see the big dogs battle it out...for world supremacy

[-JJ-]

How the Pats stay under the cap is a mystery to me too. Credit their staff for somehow managing it. They had Talib, Brady, Gronk, Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Lloyd, Wilfork, Mayo, Solder, and two other potential starting QB's in Mallet and Kafka.

 

Their signing of Jake Ballard away from the Giants was also brilliant. Patriots seemingly keep him just to mock the Giants, lol.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8047590/tom-coughlin-new-york-giants-frustrated-jake-ballard-claimed-new-england-patriots

 

The league talks about parity, but then why is it, despite the Patriots making the playoffs every year, do they get big free agent acquisitions? You could argue people want to play for the Pats. To that I say Goodell needs to do something. The rich keep getting richer? Not the kind of parity I want to see. If I want that, I'll watch college football.

 

Well first Belichick was ahead of the cap than the other teams in that he saw it coming and operated as if there was a cap before it was official..thus avoiding cap burn as happened to many teams most notably the Titans who borrowed too much on the cap.

 

The other reason is they get these bigger FAs between their larger contracts with other teams if you will. Cap is basically a 3 year outlook so planning is critical.

 

Also NE doesn't really have these great star players, which imo have cost them a SB or two. Crabtree has great talent but...

 

They also never moved up high in the 1st round because of the ensuing cap cost.

 

What they look for is smart selfless football players and sometimes that may exceed star talent.

 

While it may be true some FAs want to come to NE to win..it is mostly how they are coached when they get here and they tend to get more out of them than with another team.

 

In many ways NE has maintained a very good "average" team and often the difference are the player's work habits.

Just one example: Teddy Bruschi was an average LB most of his career yet because of the SBs many think he was a star. In his later years his veteran experience was the reason he made plays. 

[dw49]

Well to summarize everything:

Trade Welker = 90% sure he won't take a pay cut to stay with the Patriots.

Franchise Vollmer = big guy, good at pass protecting & durable.

Talib = Offer him a 3 year deal at 35 mil with bonuses if he performs.

 

 

Welker will be easily be replaced by Hernandez & Edelman. 

 

Patriots draft needs this year would be:

-Dominant WR, we have been discussing about this for 4 years now since the last time Randy Moss performed really well, but since then we had no true deep threat other than Gronk...

-Pass Rusher, I've been disappointed with Chandler Jones, I thought he would be really good at pass rush, but he has been somewhat of a disappointment, and he fades a lot during games, where on other side players like JJ Watt make true impacts on the game and make everyone around him look good.

I'd give Jones another year or two, if we don't see a gradual improvement then cut him or trade him away.

- Middle Linebacker, Spikes is good, but not good in coverage, he can stop the run, but that's about it, he has not been good at pass defending this year.

I'd say convert Mayo back to Middle Linebacker and then add another key Linebacker next to him.

 

 

Now, with everything said, one thing I also want to add is Stevan Ridley is decent, but we could probably pickup another running back, someone that is big, someone that can push the pile. We have too many small running backs.

 

 

 

How does NE go about trading Welker ? His contract is up and he was franchised last year. So not too likely they franchise him at 120% of last year's price and then tried to trade him. don't think that quite works.

[Pombi9]

How sites one become past their coaching prime? Do they forget things they once knew?

I remember Dungy once stated that coaching into his 60's was much more tiresome and a whole other beast essentially.

I am paraphrasing here of course because it was long ago but he stated something to this affect.

[Jules]

There have been rumors floating around that the 49ers will have interest in Welker.

 

http://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/report_49ers_have_interest_in_wes_welker/12862645

[dw49]

There have been rumors floating around that the 49ers will have interest in Welker.

 

http://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/report_49ers_have_interest_in_wes_welker/12862645

 

 

 

The guy is brillient and I'm sure that is a great fit. Slight problem as I see it . Welker will be a 32 year old WR looking for a big contract. SF has only about 4 million in cap space for 2013 and about 6 all pro's that will have contracts coming up soon. Even Kap has only 2 more years on his rookie deal. So good luck to SF and Welker on that one.

[MikeVander]

Since Brady's contract expires in after the 2014 season, so it looks unlikely that they can restructure it any more than it already has been. The restructuring has helped them achieve success in the short run, but now it looks evident that they will be cutting some of their star players.

 

In 2012, Brady alone hit the cap for 8 million, but in 2013, he's going to be hitting it for 21.8 million. 

[dw49]

Since Brady's contract expires in after the 2014 season, so it looks unlikely that they can restructure it any more than it already has been. The restructuring has helped them achieve success in the short run, but now it looks evident that they will be cutting some of their star players.

 

In 2012, Brady alone hit the cap for 8 million, but in 2013, he's going to be hitting it for 21.8 million. 

 

 

Yea.. I mean pretty tough to "defer" money on a 36 year old player. So there are 3 choices concering Brady's cap hit going forward. 

 

1) You do the logical thing and take the appropriate hit for each year he plays. I would think he is going to command an average of 20 mill going forward.

 

2) You mortgage your future and sign him to a 5-6 year deal with a big signing bonus. Any deal like this would take at least 40 million guaranteed or woud make no sense for Brady. So you could get his cap down to around 8 mill but , you'll pay heavily not too far down the road.

 

3) The Pats get Brady to take a big pay cut. I would think even if Brady were this stupid , the players association would probably step in. Not going to happen.

 

The only option that makes sense is option 1. Uness somehow the Pats have a lot of cap room comng in 2014 (pay 10 mill in 2013 and guarantee 30 mill in 2014) , I'm pretty sure you will see brady's cap number right around the 20 mill number.

[Jules]

Yea.. I mean pretty tough to "defer" money on a 36 year old player. So there are 3 choices concering Brady's cap hit going forward. 

 

1) You do the logical thing and take the appropriate hit for each year he plays. I would think he is going to command an average of 20 mill going forward.

 

2) You mortgage your future and sign him to a 5-6 year deal with a big signing bonus. Any deal like this would take at least 40 million guaranteed or woud make no sense for Brady. So you could get his cap down to around 8 mill but , you'll pay heavily not too far down the road.

 

3) The Pats get Brady to take a big pay cut. I would think even if Brady were this stupid , the players association would probably step in. Not going to happen.

 

The only option that makes sense is option 1. Uness somehow the Pats have a lot of cap room comng in 2014 (pay 10 mill in 2013 and guarantee 30 mill in 2014) , I'm pretty sure you will see brady's cap number right around the 20 mill number.

 

I think the Pats should send Brady to the Chiefs or Raiders. Then we get Manning vs. Brady twice a year. And then throw in Rivers too and you have one very interesting division.

[GoPats]

Yea.. I mean pretty tough to "defer" money on a 36 year old player. So there are 3 choices concering Brady's cap hit going forward. 

 

1) You do the logical thing and take the appropriate hit for each year he plays. I would think he is going to command an average of 20 mill going forward.

 

2) You mortgage your future and sign him to a 5-6 year deal with a big signing bonus. Any deal like this would take at least 40 million guaranteed or woud make no sense for Brady. So you could get his cap down to around 8 mill but , you'll pay heavily not too far down the road.

 

3) The Pats get Brady to take a big pay cut. I would think even if Brady were this stupid , the players association would probably step in. Not going to happen.

 

The only option that makes sense is option 1. Uness somehow the Pats have a lot of cap room comng in 2014 (pay 10 mill in 2013 and guarantee 30 mill in 2014) , I'm pretty sure you will see brady's cap number right around the 20 mill number.

 

I'm no capologist (if that's even a word) but couldn't they effectively restructure his contract for, say, an additional 5 years, so long as they convert any salary in 2013 to salary + bonus in the same year? They would do this, of course, knowing that he would retire before he plays out the contract. I think that happens fairly often, actually.

 

I'm sure Brady will want to be paid but he's in a very unique situation. As long as he stays married, he will never be broke... ever. Giselle is worth more than any two NFL players combined.

[dw49]

I'm no capologist (if that's even a word) but couldn't they effectively restructure his contract for, say, an additional 5 years, so long as they convert any salary in 2013 to salary + bonus in the same year? They would do this, of course, knowing that he would retire before he plays out the contract. I think that happens fairly often, actually.

 

I'm sure Brady will want to be paid but he's in a very unique situation. As long as he stays married, he will never be broke... ever. Giselle is worth more than any two NFL players combined.

 

 

Yes , that would be the 2nd option I have listed.They push the money out to future years by turning 2013 salary into a signing bonus. The only problm is "eventually all the water goes to the ocean." It would help their cap in 2013 but NE would be paying for it later when Brady may not even be playing.

[Superman]

I'm no capologist (if that's even a word) but couldn't they effectively restructure his contract for, say, an additional 5 years, so long as they convert any salary in 2013 to salary + bonus in the same year? They would do this, of course, knowing that he would retire before he plays out the contract. I think that happens fairly often, actually.

 

I'm sure Brady will want to be paid but he's in a very unique situation. As long as he stays married, he will never be broke... ever. Giselle is worth more than any two NFL players combined.

 

 

Yes , that would be the 2nd option I have listed.They push the money out to future years by turning 2013 salary into a signing bonus. The only problm is "eventually all the water goes to the ocean." It would help their cap in 2013 but NE would be paying for it later when Brady may not even be playing.

 

I'm trying to figure out exactly how the Ray Lewis void mechanism works. Somehow his $6.25m signing bonus was amortized over the first four years of the contract, with no bonus being accounted for in the final three years. So when he retires, the Ravens won't have any bonus accelerated onto the 2013 cap. The contract essentially voids out. I might be missing something, but I'll post if I can get my mind wrapped around it.

 

If the Patriots did a seven year deal with Brady right now with heavy bonuses and guarantees in the first four years, they could either restructure after Year 4 or void the contract. In any event, they'd still have about $80-90m hitting their cap in one form or another over the next four seasons, so the relief in comparison to where they are now would be minimal.

[dw49]

I'm trying to figure out exactly how the Ray Lewis void mechanism works. Somehow his $6.25m signing bonus was amortized over the first four years of the contract, with no bonus being accounted for in the final three years. So when he retires, the Ravens won't have any bonus accelerated onto the 2013 cap. The contract essentially voids out. I might be missing something, but I'll post if I can get my mind wrapped around it.

 

If the Patriots did a seven year deal with Brady right now with heavy bonuses and guarantees in the first four years, they could either restructure after Year 4 or void the contract. In any event, they'd still have about $80-90m hitting their cap in one form or another over the next four seasons, so the relief in comparison to where they are now would be minimal.

 

 

 

I think when 36-37 year old guys (Manning , Brady) command 20 mill a year , you pretty much just have to "pay the piper." If you get need relief from that base salary , you really can't push it too far down the road withoit it taking a good chunk out of your coolee in 3-4 years. Different deal when you're thinking of restructuring a guy with 8-9 years and a couple of contracts left in the horizon. Denver just eat's the Manning 20 mill base.