Was Luck hyped to much?

[braveheartcolt]

The Colts were the worst team LAST YEAR because they had a really bad QB and bad defense.... They don't have that excuse this year. Colts are losing games this season because of the missed assignments, bad effort, and errant passes and sometimes bad play calling.

Ppl need to stop giving the "he's a rookie" excuse because even Arians will tell you that is no excuse.. They've already had about a full season of college football...

QBs miss passes and WRs drop balls... Luck is not Peyton Manning and he certainly won't have the completion percentage of Peyton so stop holding your breath in hope of next year.

Where in the quoted post did I say he was a rookie? Where did I say I was holding my breath? Where did I say he was Peyton Manning? Rant all the negative bile you want, but don't jump on my 'we are clearly improving' post and use it to fan your own flames of negativity. Oh, and if we are losing these games due to the reasons you suggest, what about the games we won? Or do these not count nor suit your argument.

[indy1888]

He threw several errant balls yesterday while under no pressure whatsoever.

To me, it seems he is very conscious of not throwing picks and is therefor putting a little too much mustard on his throws. I would rather have him throw incompletions than to see him throwing INT's.

Also, that kid is tough as nails. Two weeks in a row he got blind side blasted out his socks and got up grinning.

I guess i didn't see several bad throws yesterday. I have seen em in games prior but i didn't see "several" yesterday. Not ones where he had a clean pocket and was not on the run at least. I seen some balls that were basically thrown away so they would not be picked off. To me, it seems like our WR have a problem getting open consistently. When Reggie gets shut down, our offense falls on it's face. Hilton is still very young and he accounted for at least 2 of Luck's misses yesterday dropping a perfect first down pass and then failing to sit down in the zone on another. It looked like an errant pass, when in reality it was the fault of Hilton. I think having a perfectly healthy Collie would have changed things quite a bit as they were working wonderfully together in camp.

[HtownColt]

So that 30yd pass was the reason they lost? There's no Griffin hype over here I'm actually happy they lost.... if I was an RG3 fan I'd come at you with "at least he can throw the deep ball accurately"

well Andrew Luck and RGIII completed the same amount(2) of deep balls(40+ yards). not to mention one of RGIII 40+ completion was a 12 yard in route to Garcon that he took 88yrds so in reality he completed one deep ball this year, so how can RGIII be more accurate throwing the deep ball than Luck?.

and Luck completed(24) passes of 20+ yards while RGIII completed 23 passes of 20+ yards

http://www.nfl.com/s...=2&d-447263-n=1

http://www.cbssports...ert-griffin-iii

[RGIII]

well Andrew Luck and RGIII completed the same amount(2) of deep balls(40+ yards). not to mention one of RGIII 40+ completion was a 12 yard in route to Garcon that he took 88yrds so in reality he completed one deep ball this year, so how can RGIII be more accurate throwing the deep ball than Luck?.

and Luck completed(24) passes of 20+ yards while RGIII completed 23 passes of 20+ yards

http://www.nfl.com/s...=2&d-447263-n=1

http://www.cbssports...ert-griffin-iii

Probably because Griffin has had multiple beautiful deep balls dropped by receivers (three come to mind immediately for me, I'm sure there's another one or two I'm forgetting). We're talking over 40 yards through the air and hitting guys right in the hands or chest.

[HtownColt]

Probably because Griffin has had multiple beautiful deep balls dropped by receivers (three come to mind immediately for me, I'm sure there's another one or two I'm forgetting). We're talking over 40 yards through the air and hitting guys right in the hands or chest.

doesn't matter if its not completed. its like a home run foul ball, just a long strike. in football terms just a long loss of down

[RGIII]

doesn't matter if its not completed. its like a home run foul ball, just a long strike. in football terms just a long loss of down

In terms of the end result of the play and team success, you are absolutely correct. However, that's an exceptionally poor analogy when it comes to discussing individual accuracy.

[HtownColt]

In terms of the end result of the play and team success, you are absolutely correct. However, that's an exceptionally poor analogy when it comes to discussing individual accuracy.

hey numbers never lie. 1 deep ball from RGIII to 2 from Luck. RGIII deep can't be that much better if they only caught 1

[corgi]

In terms of the end result of the play and team success, you are absolutely correct. However, that's an exceptionally poor analogy when it comes to discussing individual accuracy.

Luck has had a lot more balls dropped by receivers than 3, including deep balls, I think Avery may have that covered by himself. In the end an ugly pass that is a completion helps the team out more than a gorgeous pass that is dropped.

[corgi]

hey numbers never lie. 1 deep ball from RGIII to 2 from Luck. RGIII deep can't be that much better if they only caught 1

I have a feeling you are stuck in an argument that can't be won. Of course I'm on your side though.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Luck has had a lot more balls dropped by receivers than 3, including deep balls, I think Avery may have that covered by himself. In the end an ugly pass that is a completion helps the team out more than a gorgeous pass that is dropped.

They have had 11 entering yesterday which is exactly what the league average, though to hear some discuss it, the drops would be approaching 40 to 50.

11 out of Luck's 221 pass attempts prior to yesterday were dropped. 5%

10 out of RGIII's 161 pass attempts prior to yesterday were dropped. 6.2%

[RGIII]

hey numbers never lie. 1 deep ball from RGIII to 2 from Luck. RGIII deep can't be that much better if they only caught 1

Numbers never tell the whole story. I love stats but I also know that they need context to be properly understood. I'm giving you context on Griffin and you're throwing it out instead of giving me the same information on Luck (not that I haven't seen a good deal of him already).

Luck has had a lot more balls dropped by receivers than 3, including deep balls, I think Avery may have that covered by himself. In the end an ugly pass that is a completion helps the team out more than a gorgeous pass that is dropped.

True on that last point. I was talking about three very memorable drops on very long throws from Griffin, if you want to include ALL throws he's had a ton of drops as well and he still sits at a 70% completion rate. He's really been phenomenal in that regard.

I have a feeling you are stuck in an argument that can't be won. Of course I'm on your side though.

I'm actually crazy enough to consider doing the legwork to resolve this disagreement one way or another. ;)

[corgi]

Numbers never tell the whole story. I love stats but I also know that they need context to be properly understood. I'm giving you context on Griffin and you're throwing it out instead of giving me the same information on Luck (not that I haven't seen a good deal of him already).

True on that last point. I was talking about three very memorable drops on very long throws from Griffin, if you want to include ALL throws he's had a ton of drops as well and he still sits at a 70% completion rate. He's really been phenomenal in that regard.

I'm actually crazy enough to consider doing the legwork to resolve this disagreement one way or another. ;)

Dropped passes are so frustrating, even worse was Moss' fumble yesterday ( I have no feelings for the Redskins and that irked me). I think both Griffin and Luck will get better with the deep ball, but I think the Redskins will utilize the deep passing game more. At times it looks like the future of Indy's offense will be long methodical drives, which lead to wins but don't necessarily make for exciting football.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'm actually crazy enough to consider doing the legwork to resolve this disagreement one way or another. ;)

I'll save each of you some legwork.

This is entering this past weeks games. The splits including yesterday's games aren't available yet. They should be some time tomorrow.

It's for each of the rookies and it's based on the length of the pass, not the end result of the play.

[SilentHill]

They have had 11 entering yesterday which is exactly what the league average, though to hear some discuss it, the drops would be approaching 40 to 50.

11 out of Luck's 221 pass attempts prior to yesterday were dropped. 5%

10 out of RGIII's 161 pass attempts prior to yesterday were dropped. 6.2%

It's unfortunate there is not a WR Error # of passes that should have been caught. When Luck throws a ball that hits Donnie Avery in the back, I consider that in my "dropped pass" numbers, I also count when Luck throws a catch-able ball, but the WR gives up, runs the wrong route, studders when they should go, etc, etc. and I'm also counting the countless plays where the corner was there and gave some disruption, but the ball was still catch-able. Most of Luck's INT's have been bobbled or deflected by the WR and taken by the CB's.

The true number of "dropped" passes does not show the reality.

[Nobody]

Said the man who hasn't watched the Redskins all season. ;)

I kid ;)

[HtownColt]

I'll save each of you some legwork.

This is entering this past weeks games. The splits including yesterday's games aren't available yet. They should be some time tomorrow.

It's for each of the rookies and it's based on the length of the pass, not the end result of the play.

Luck hit Avery for a 41yrd catch(Vikings) and he hit Hilton for a 40yrd TD catch(Jaguars) that traveled that distance in the air. so Luck should have 2 passes over 31 yards on here

nevermind Hilton caught that ball at the 12yrd line so it went 28 yards in the air my bad

[RGIII]

I'll save each of you some legwork.

This is entering this past weeks games. The splits including yesterday's games aren't available yet. They should be some time tomorrow.

It's for each of the rookies and it's based on the length of the pass, not the end result of the play.

I was thinking of doing something along the lines of individual play breakdowns and screencaps of ball placement on those 30+ throws. It's really the only way to make note of the intricacies of the play while still keeping the sample size small.

Dropped passes are so frustrating, even worse was Moss' fumble yesterday ( I have no feelings for the Redskins and that irked me). I think both Griffin and Luck will get better with the deep ball, but I think the Redskins will utilize the deep passing game more. At times it looks like the future of Indy's offense will be long methodical drives, which lead to wins but don't necessarily make for exciting football.

Moss' fumble was water under the bridge compared to our defense allowing Cruz to run right by them to re-take the lead.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I was thinking of doing something along the lines of individual play breakdowns and screencaps of ball placement on those 30+ throws. It's really the only way to make note of the intricacies of the play while still keeping the sample size small.

If you have rewind, then that could be done fairly easily. More effort than I'm willing to put in, but have at it.... A lot like the pass the Browns receiver dropped yesterday. Weeden couldn't have placed it better if he handed it to him, but it goes as an incompletion/drop

[Gavin]

was a beautiful throw by Weeden but in typical Browns wide receivers fashion, once that jersey is on, the hands seem to never make it through the arm holes leaving Weeden and MCcoy out to dry

[Smitto]

well Andrew Luck and RGIII completed the same amount(2) of deep balls(40+ yards). not to mention one of RGIII 40+ completion was a 12 yard in route to Garcon that he took 88yrds so in reality he completed one deep ball this year, so how can RGIII be more accurate throwing the deep ball than Luck?.

and Luck completed(24) passes of 20+ yards while RGIII completed 23 passes of 20+ yards

http://www.nfl.com/s...=2&d-447263-n=1

http://www.cbssports...ert-griffin-iii

Did you follow Griffin before the draft? Dont try and debate that cause its widely known griffin has the best deep ball... just because they completed the same amount doesn't mean anything..

I do however believe luck will have the most deep balls though mainly because of how many times he's gonna get to throw... doesn't mean he has a better deep ball

[FireJimCaldwell]

Luck hit Avery for a 41yrd catch(Vikings) and he hit Hilton for a 40yrd TD catch(Jaguars) that traveled that distance in the air. so Luck should have 2 passes over 31 yards on here

nevermind Hilton caught that ball at the 12yrd line so it went 28 yards in the air my bad

The data was collected from the players respective pages at CNNSI since they have expanded splits when compared to Yahoo/NFL/ESPN/etc.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/players/25711/passing_splits.html

They have the Avery play in the 31-40 split.

[HtownColt]

Probably because Griffin has had multiple beautiful deep balls dropped by receivers (three come to mind immediately for me, I'm sure there's another one or two I'm forgetting). We're talking over 40 yards through the air and hitting guys right in the hands or chest.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/GrifRo00-1.php

Redskins receivers only dropped one deep ball.

against NO: i don't count Garcon's 88 yard td as a deep ball so he didn't throw any deep balls that game. counts as 1 deep ball but shouldn't

against Rams: he threw two deep balls: "His deep ball accuracy came on display twice against the Rams -- once on a deep fling to wide receiver Leonard Hankerson for a sixty-eight yard touchdown, and once on an end-around fake that set up a long throw to Aldrick Robinson, which clanged off the wideout's hands." 1 deep ball td and 1 dropped

against Bengals: He was able to showcase his deep ball on a failed play-action pass to Leonard Hankerson. 1 incomplete deep ball not dropped

against Bucs: He once again exhibited his arm strength on several deep passes -- one intended for Pierre Garcon, the other for Leonard Hankerson -- though neither were for completions. 2 incomplete deep balls

against ATL: Griffin's longest pass of the day came on a twenty-yard swing route from running back Alfred Morris. so 0 deep balls that game

against vikes: his only deep pass of the day which doesn't classify as a deep ball. R.Griffin pass deep middle to S.Moss to MIN 20 for 30 yards

so 1 dropped deep ball from the redskins receivers. so i don't see how you can put that on the receivers. so this RGIII throws a better deep ball is a myth being that he only completed 1 deep ball

[HtownColt]

Did you follow Griffin before the draft? Dont try and debate that cause its widely known griffin has the best deep ball... just because they completed the same amount doesn't mean anything..

I do however believe luck will have the most deep balls though mainly because of how many times he's gonna get to throw... doesn't mean he has a better deep ball

you're in the NFL now. nobody cares what you did in college anymore. and to be honest with you Weeden throws the best deep ball so far

[hawkeyes]

Love it - member(s) start threads to complain about other threads/topics discussing the topic(s) that the member is tired of seeing .... what a society we live in!

[HtownColt]

The data was collected from the players respective pages at CNNSI since they have expanded splits when compared to Yahoo/NFL/ESPN/etc.

http://sportsillustr...ing_splits.html

They have the Avery play in the 31-40 split.

thats weird Avery caught that ball and fell down on his back and it went down as a 41yrd catch

[FireJimCaldwell]

thats weird Avery caught that ball and fell down on his back and it went down as a 41yrd catch

I'm not sure, I'd have to go back and look at the video, but I'm not pulling it out of thin air... Getting the info from CNNSI who uses Stats Inc data like all the other places do.

[southwest1]

I'm sure poor pass protection has nothing to do with it, right?

Kudos Joker...Give that man 5 gold stars for his short, sweet, and pinpoint accurate post! BRAVO Sir...

[HtownColt]

I'm not sure, I'd have to go back and look at the video, but I'm not pulling it out of thin air... Getting the info from CNNSI who uses Stats Inc data like all the other places do.

yea i know i actually look at the sports illustrated statline from time to time whenever i get a chance

[FireJimCaldwell]

yea i know i actually look at the sports illustrated statline from time to time whenever i get a chance

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012091603/2012/REG2/vikings@colts?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=highlights&tab=recap

Not sure if that links to the proper video, but the ball was snapped on the 44, and he catches it on the 5/6 yard line and then rolls/falls to the 3.

[HtownColt]

http://www.nfl.com/g...ights&tab=recap

Not sure if that links to the proper video, but the ball was snapped on the 44, and he catches it on the 5/6 yard line and then rolls/falls to the 3.

they must have gave him the roll

[southwest1]

Even if you think Luck is overhyped NOW that doesn't mean he cannot still live up to it someday. Patience guys. His team is quite frankly below average to most people's standards and already has a 3-3 record. (the same record as Manning's Broncos btw who some fawn over to the point it makes me wonder who they are really rooting for) And we already have a huge win over Aaron Rodgers' Packers which quite honestly might be the most exciting win I have seen all season by years end in my world.

I am not sure I get it at times. I swear many fans these days are more into individual stats and highlights on ESPN then they are over actual team wins. This team is already making many more strides then last season and is overcoming a lot of diversity.

Sometimes I don't even know why I bother. Our fanbase is often just never happy enough and full of people who want to constantly vent if the team doesn't live up to some of their own expectations.

Enjoy it this season, chances are low expectations won't be following us for long.

We picked the right guy. I have a feeling that with the way he plays RGIII won't be able to stay healthy that long... and they will have a tough time building around him in the future without any draft picks. Luck on the other hand is everything they have said, and will continue to grow with time. Plus we have the ability to build a team around him.

No, he wasn't hyped too much. I think Luck is amazing and he's lived up to the hype in his ROOKIE year so far. He has proven to be clutch in just 6 games. He's thrown the ball a ridiculous number of times already to carry a team that went 2-14 last year--a team that's filled with rookies, an inconsistant O-line, rookie TE's, rookie RB etc...

He's the main reason why we're winning. Thank God we drafted this kid.

Beautiful job of maintaining the proper perspective Jules, Gandalf, and Flash777. Count to 10 slowly and take a deep breath Feel better now? Good...The Blue Horseshoe is just fine.

[FireJimCaldwell]

they must have gave him the roll

He gets the roll in the total yardage, but the length of the throw was coming in and 38 or 39 yards. They are fairly precise, which is why on throws 31-40 yards he's 1/1 with 41 yards. He got the yards, and 1-3 YAC.

[southwest1]

I have no idea why people dwell on this. Rookie QB panic mode. It's absolute nonsense IMO. I get it. The Field General is the most important position in football followed closely by the center and left tackle [whatever your QB's blindside is.] But come on, Luck ain't no Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russel. Protect him with a solid offensive line and a ground game and Luck will be just fine. The trick is who do we keep on the line, cut, and who do we draft in April?

It's all about the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the pocket you create and the D-line push you generate. Look at NY Giants GM Jerry Reese's model of success: Strong, agile, and athletic guys who use leverage and feet placement exceptionally well. That's what wins games: Sweaty power pigs on both lines.

[FireJimCaldwell]

It's unfortunate there is not a WR Error # of passes that should have been caught. When Luck throws a ball that hits Donnie Avery in the back, I consider that in my "dropped pass" numbers, I also count when Luck throws a catch-able ball, but the WR gives up, runs the wrong route, studders when they should go, etc, etc. and I'm also counting the countless plays where the corner was there and gave some disruption, but the ball was still catch-able. Most of Luck's INT's have been bobbled or deflected by the WR and taken by the CB's.

The true number of "dropped" passes does not show the reality.

They do track QB/WR miscommunication, entering yesterday Luck has 1 such pass, and I'm not sure who the target was for that.

Not every interception is on the quarterback but it is impossible for these companies to know who is more to blame. Did the QB make the wrong read, did the receiver run the wrong route, or a combo of that.

I think stats inc defines a drop as a ball that should be caught with minimal effort. Which would make the Brady/Welker Super Bowl pass an errant throw more than a drop even though Welker hauls that in more times than not.

Just like the Manning pick six vs. San Diego. He threw it right to the DB, and Collinsworth pointed out even though he doesn't know for 100% certainty that the WR didn't read what Manning read and ran the wrong option route vs. that blitz package. It goes against the QB and lowers his efficiency rating. It sucks, but it happens.

Luck has had 116 incomplete passes.

Stats inc has that distributed as follows:

Type Number

Pass Dropped 11

Poor Throw 41

Pass Defensed 35

Pass Hit at Line 4

Other 18

Intercepted 7

I think that could change a bit later in the week once they have gone through and looked at drops. That usually occurs later in the week.

Entering last week he was listed as having:

11 Drops

4 Batted down at the line

1 QB/WR Miscommunication

25 overthrows

4 Spikes

4 Thrown away intentionally

7 underthrows

9 thrown wide

29 passes were defensed

1 pass caught out of bounds.

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/playerstats.asp?id=25711&team=11

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/players/25711/passing_splits.html

Like Manning said a few weeks ago after the Falcons game. The quarterback signs his name to every pass, which is true even though not every negative result is the fault of the quarterback.

[RGIII]

http://subscribers.f.../GrifRo00-1.php

Redskins receivers only dropped one deep ball.

against NO: i don't count Garcon's 88 yard td as a deep ball so he didn't throw any deep balls that game. counts as 1 deep ball but shouldn't

against Rams: he threw two deep balls: "His deep ball accuracy came on display twice against the Rams -- once on a deep fling to wide receiver Leonard Hankerson for a sixty-eight yard touchdown, and once on an end-around fake that set up a long throw to Aldrick Robinson, which clanged off the wideout's hands." 1 deep ball td and 1 dropped

against Bengals: He was able to showcase his deep ball on a failed play-action pass to Leonard Hankerson. 1 incomplete deep ball not dropped

against Bucs: He once again exhibited his arm strength on several deep passes -- one intended for Pierre Garcon, the other for Leonard Hankerson -- though neither were for completions. 2 incomplete deep balls

against ATL: Griffin's longest pass of the day came on a twenty-yard swing route from running back Alfred Morris. so 0 deep balls that game

against vikes: his only deep pass of the day which doesn't classify as a deep ball. R.Griffin pass deep middle to S.Moss to MIN 20 for 30 yards

so 1 dropped deep ball from the redskins receivers. so i don't see how you can put that on the receivers. so this RGIII throws a better deep ball is a myth being that he only completed 1 deep ball

Your source isn't a good one for the information we're talking about. Give me a minute, here.

[Smitto]

Where in the quoted post did I say he was a rookie? Where did I say I was holding my breath? Where did I say he was Peyton Manning? Rant all the negative bile you want, but don't jump on my 'we are clearly improving' post and use it to fan your own flames of negativity. Oh, and if we are losing these games due to the reasons you suggest, what about the games we won? Or do these not count nor suit your argument.

I wasn't talking about you, most of that post was in general not directed towards you at all... those games the colts won they won it by being a balanced team keeping the defense on their heels. It definitely wasnt by passing the ball a whole lot of times.

[FireJimCaldwell]

thats weird Avery caught that ball and fell down on his back and it went down as a 41yrd catch

Found it in the play by play

2-12-MIN 44 (2:18) (Run formation)

12-A.Luck pass deep right to 11-D.Avery to MIN 3 for 41 yards (26-A.Winfield).

1st Down Passing: IND

Passing Yards: IND 12 (A.Luck), 41 yards

Pass Length, Completion: IND 12 (A.Luck), 39 yards

Pass Reception Yards: IND 11 (D.Avery), 41 yards

Pass Target: IND 11 (D.Avery)

Yardage Gained After the Catch: IND 11 (D.Avery), 2 yards

Solo Tackle: MIN 26 (A.Winfield)

[Drewp1]

Luck is more accurate when the game is on the line.

[ruksak]

I guess i didn't see several bad throws yesterday.

We weren't watching the same game then. One was so bad that it negated a PI penalty because it was uncatchable.

[John Dee]

Since it's not possible for me to hit the "Like" button more than once, allow me to say a sincere Thank You for writing that.

I've been writing things like that it seems since the day I arrived in May.... I've written something a little similar in another thread about his low completion percentage...

This will all get better as the team improves around Luck. No player can do it all by himself. You need a team.

Give it a little time. Be a little patient. And Andrew Luck will reward your faith in him.....

Not sure, but Cowherd "I think" said Indy led the league in DROPS.

Regardless... indy has a lot of them.

I have watched EVERY game... and I would not be surprised if this is true.

Luck has made some really bad throws.... but he has also been let down by his skill position teammates.