Dustin's Updated RB Rankings.

[Dustin]

I've gone through 12 runningbacks, which is by far the largest group I've done (i think the next closest is corners which is 8). I've decided to go back and re-rank the runners after watching a few more and watching more of the earlier backs I've graded. Also not taking injuries into account at all. 

 

The Elite: 

 

1. Todd Gurley, Georgia. (1st round grade)

 

Gurley, aside from injury concerns, is everything you would want in a runningback. He has the size, the speed, the power, the elusiveness, and the vision. If I had to bet on which one of these guys is going to be an elite back, It would be Gurley, 

 

NFL Comp: Marshawn Lynch

 

The Workhorses:

 

2. Jay Ajayi, Boise State. (2nd round grade)

3. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin. (2nd round grade)

 

Ajayi is a well rounded, big-bodied runner who can win with finesse or power. He's probably the best pure catcher in his position group. Ajayi to me, with a year under his belt playing second fiddle to a veteran runner, can have produce like skinny Le'Veon Bell. 

 

NFL Comp: Le'Veon Bell

 

I'm not as high on Gordon as others, but nonetheless I think he's a very good pure runner with elusiveness, foot quickness, and long speed. Gordon is the type of back who plays with power and won't break many tackles, but he can be a productive back for a very long time. He has elite agility. 

 

NFL Comp: Slower Chris Johnson with more elusiveness

 

The Wild Cards: 

 

4. Duke Johnson, Miami (2nd round grade)

5. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska (3rd round grade)

 

Johnson is a quick, shifty, fast, runner in the mold of Darren Sproles and Andre Ellington. He might not be able to every carry the load full time as a between the tackles runner, but he offers immense value as a back who can excel as a pass catcher and in a change of pace role.  

 

NFL Comp: C.J. Spiller

 

Abdullah is a back in the same mold as Duke Johnson. He doesn't offer quite the same amount of explosion and long speed, but he possesses elite agility and a lot of power for a runner his size. I think that of the two, Abdullah has the best chance of being a full-time starter, but he has a very, very bad fumbling issue (1 fumble every 35 touches) that could keep him in a reserve role.

 

NFL Comp: Andre Ellington

 

The Solid Options: 

 

*Note: There's really not much separating any of the top 3 in this tier, so I could see the argument for any of them over the other. 

 

6. Mike Davis, South Carolina (3rd round grade)

7. Jeremy Langford, Michigan State (3rd round grade)

8. T.J. Yeldon, Alabama (4th round grade)

9.. David Cobb, Minnesota (4th round grade)

 

Davis is a physical runner with above average vision and great 3rd down ability. Davis was a projected first round pick before his disappointing final season, but I still saw guy on tape who's capable of carrying a running game.

 

 NFL Comp: Ahmad Bradshaw

 

Langford is a good all-around back with the skillset to play on all 3 downs. He ran the fastest 40 yard dash at the combine and his long speed is evident when you teach him. Langford is probably never a guy who's going to excel at one thing, but he'll be good at all of them, which is all you can really ask for.

 

NFL Comp: Lamar Miller, MIA

 

Yeldon is a silky smooth runner who is also good at everything he does. He's seemingly committed to being a power back after showing up to the combine at 226 lbs, which I think is the right choice, as he had a sort of a mix between a gasher and a power runner at Alabama. Like Abdullah, Yeldon has a fumbling problem that could keep him resigned to a committee role. 

 

NFL Comp: Arian Foster

 

Cobb is a bowling-ball of power. He uses his strength and low center of gravity to dish out punishment to opposing linebackers and defensive backs. His 3rd down ability and ball control are question marks, but he offers a viable short distance runner who can excel in a power run scheme. 

 

NFL Comp: Toby Gerhart

 

The Question Marks with Potential:

 

10. Tevin Coleman, Indiana (4th round grade)

 

Coleman will likely go higher than I have him ranked come draft day. No doubt Coleman is a breakaway runner with top-notch speed. The problem I have with Coleman is that he's too boom or bust. Having a runningback who can take it 80 yards any given play is great, but is it worth it when he's only gaining 2-3 yards on all of his other carries? Consistency is much more important than big play ability.

 

For an example: Everyone points to his game against Ohio State and point at the box score to justify him having a good game, but he was shut down an all but 2 runs (his 90 yard and 52 yard TDs) came late in the 2nd half. In the NFL, where those long runs are less frequent, a showing like that just serves to stall drives and put your offense in 3rd and long situations. 

 

Coleman came into the combine as a disappointing 208 lbs. It's also reported that he has suffered a foot injury. Foot injuries basically killed Ahmad Bradshaw's career. 

 

Coleman has tools to work with, but from the RB position, if you are going to spend a premium pick, you need a guy who ca consistently churn out 4-5 yard runs. 

 

NFL Comp: Darren McFadden

 

The Role Players:

 

11. Buck Allen, USC

12. David Johnson, Northern Iowa

 

"Buck" Allen is pretty much the same back as T.J. Yeldon. Solid, not spectacular at anything. Allen is one of the top 2 or 3 best receivers in this class and could find a spot as a 3rd-down back. 

 

NFL Comp: Roy Helu

 

David Johnson is a former WR and you tell by the way he plays. He's a physical freak, but he has very bad vision. He can catch with the best of them and will find a home as 3rd down back to WR convert. I wouldn't want Johnson as a starter, but he has the tools to be effective in where he wins (catching, outside the tackles)

 

NFL Comp: Joique Bell, DET

[12isthenew18]

i'll take they jay train

[Defjamz26]

Question Dustin. What do you think of Josh Robinson from Mississippi State?

Saw his games against Kentucky and LSU and he looks like a top 5 back.

[tvturner]

I'll take Coleman, or Cobb

[Dustin]

Question Dustin. What do you think of Josh Robinson from Mississippi State?

Saw his games against Kentucky and LSU and he looks like a top 5 back.

 

He's pretty good, but I worry about lack of athleticism. Wouldn't spend more than a 5th (ideally a 6th) on him and I wouldn't take him with the idea of him ever being a feature back. 

[Hoosiernsavga]

I think Gurley and Coleman are the top 2 backs.

[Nobody]

Most of these comps are really, really good. I'm also not so high on Coleman, I heavily agree with these. I'd have Johnson higher though.

[Nobody]

I think Gurley and Coleman are the top 2 backs.

Looking at your name that's not a surprise

[NewColtsFan]

Even if you think Coleman is not an every down back,  his ability to go the distance from anywhere on the field should make him a top-100 player.

 

His type of talent is just not found outside the top-100.

 

That should get him drafted in the top three rounds.

[Dustin]

Even if you think Coleman is not an every down back,  his ability to go the distance from anywhere on the field should make him a top-100 player.

 

His type of talent is just not found outside the top-100.

 

Fast runningbacks aren't found outside the top 100? I disagree. There are a ton of fast guys taken every year later in the draft. 

[Colts_Fan12]

Really hoping for Langford late!!

[NewColtsFan]

Fast runningbacks aren't found outside the top 100? I disagree. There are a ton of fast guys taken every year later in the draft. 

 

There are NOT a "ton" of fast guys taken every year.    Typically,  there are 1-3.  

 

Last year,  we had Archer and D'Anthony Thomas.     And they were like 5'8" and 175.    One went in the 3rd, the other in the 4th.

 

Coleman is 5'11" and 205.    That's a big difference from a tiny novelty back.

 

Look at this profile....    none of your little specialty backs have a profile that reads like this....

 

If you insist there's a ton of guys who look like this every year after the first three rounds,  you had better be ready to list them.

 

But read the profile.   It should stop you in your tracks.

 

 

Strengths

Decisive north-south runner. Outstanding three-step burst into second level. Fearless between the tackles. Has dangerous jump-cut to instantly change gaps and ruin the plans of linebackers. Stays square to the line and is always in ready position to hit turbo. Has shown one-cut ability and natural change-of-direction talent without gearing down. Violent run finisher. Will duck shoulder and throw heavy forearm into tackler to prove a point.  Not a content runner -- doesn't like to give in.  Capable hands out of backfield and willing to square up and engage pass rushers on pass plays. Hits top speed so quickly that safeties and linebackers repeatedly take poor angles, leading to long touchdowns. Half of his 28 career rushing touchdowns were of 43-plus yards, including eight of 64-plus yards.

[Dustin]

There are NOT a "ton" of fast guys taken every year.    Typically,  there are 1-3.  

 

You're right, there aren't. I must have been mis-remembering. Regardless, he's stiff as a board and doesn't run with power. 

[NewColtsFan]

You're right, there aren't. I must have been mis-remembering. Regardless, he's stiff as a board and doesn't run with power. 

 

 

All I can say is you're not reading the profile I posted.   It addresses every issue you raise and says the opposite is true.

 

But the bottom line is this....    he doesn't have to be the primary back to be a valuable asset.   He could be the change of pace RB....     he could have 8-12 touches and have a huge impact.

 

He could do for a team what I expect Abdullah and Duke Johnson will.    I don't expect either of them to be the lead back.  But they'll be terrific situational back-ups....   and so could Coleman....

 

I'm willing to concede I don't think he's the 3rd best back in the draft as I thought several months ago.   But I think he's got rare, special skills that should be taken advantage of....   

 

If Coleman lands with the right team and used the right way -- he's a dangerous weapon.  

 

Easily top-100.

 

If you look at your big board and beyond....   players start looking different at around the top-50 mark.   And even more different around the top 75-80...      the further down they go,  the more wholes in their profile you find....

 

Coleman is easily in the top-100, and for me,  easily in the top-75.   I think he's somewhere around 55 for me....

[#BringBobBack]

Question Dustin. What do you think of Josh Robinson from Mississippi State?

Saw his games against Kentucky and LSU and he looks like a top 5 back.

i also saw the game he had against Kentucky and i was surprised Kentucky's run defense didn't have an answer for him he played well had a great game one of the games Dupree didn't have that great of a game still Robinson was impressive

 

[#BringBobBack]

Come on Duke Johnson

[Defjamz26]

i also saw the game he had against Kentucky and i was surprised Kentucky's run defense didn't have an answer for him he played well had a great game one of the games Dupree didn't have that great of a game still Robinson was impressive

Yeah he was so hard to bring down. I see what Dustin is saying in terms of him lacking athleticism, but that might be fine for what the Colts want from their running game.

I'd hate to have to play against him.

[HtownColt]

I think Pagano/Grigson is going to go for Yeldon mid rounds

[Hoose]

VERY impressive video on Robinson. He lacks top end speed but he's a decisive one cut runner and blasts through the hole. You have to like that. Seems to have blocked well. If he were available in the 5th round, why not?

[Hoosiernsavga]

Looking at your name that's not a surprise

Yeah, what a coincidence. LOL

Seriously though Gurley is #1 on most list. Coleman had the worst OL out of all the top backs coming out. Definitely one of the top playmakers. Coach Meyer said he was the best back he faced in the Big10 last season.

No doubt this is a very solid draft for rb's!

[NewColtsFan]

Found this nugget in an ESPN article where Todd McShay lists some of his favorite playmakers....   including guys like Tyler Lockett, Ameer Abdullah and Duke Johson....

 

Also there is Tevin Coleman with the following mind-blowing stats.....

 

 

He led the nation in 30-, 40-, 50- and 60-yard runs (with 9, 8, 6 and 5, respectively) and tied for the national lead in 70-, 80- and 90-yard runs (with 3, 2 and 1, respectively).

 

Do the math....   that's 34 runs of 30 or more yards in one season.  In a 12-game season,  that's nearly three times per game he's busting loose for a huge gain.   And he was basically the only threat on the team this year.

 

That SCREAMS top-100!   There's just no other way around it.    There are just not many people on the planet who can do that.

[Dustin]

Found this nugget in an ESPN article where Todd McShay lists some of his favorite playmakers.... including guys like Tyler Lockett, Ameer Abdullah and Duke Johson....

Also there is Tevin Coleman with the following mind-blowing stats.....

He led the nation in 30-, 40-, 50- and 60-yard runs (with 9, 8, 6 and 5, respectively) and tied for the national lead in 70-, 80- and 90-yard runs (with 3, 2 and 1, respectively).

Do the math.... that's 34 runs of 30 or more yards in one season. In a 12-game season, that's nearly three times per game he's busting loose for a huge gain. And he was basically the only threat on the team this year.

That SCREAMS top-100! There's just no other way around it. There are just not many people on the planet who can do that.

It also screams regression to the mean.

[Deano1818]

I like the write up, but rate Coleman higher 

 

He isnt as good as Gurley (IMHO)

 

I think he goes to someone in the mid second round

 

 

Coleman gained 2000 yards behind a mediocre offensive line at best, where he faced 8+ man boxes on every play.

 

There was very little talent passing the ball. 

 

Every defense KNEW that he was getting the play

 

He STILL got yards. 

 

 

I think this kid is scary in a true balanced offense, where the dbs and LBs cant tee off on the run every play. 

[NewColtsFan]

I like the write up, but rate Coleman higher 

 

He isnt as good as Gurley (IMHO)

 

I think he goes to someone in the mid second round

 

 

Coleman gained 2000 yards behind a mediocre offensive line at best, where he faced 8+ man boxes on every play.

 

There was very little talent passing the ball. 

 

Every defense KNEW that he was getting the play

 

He STILL got yards. 

 

 

I think this kid is scary in a true balanced offense, where the dbs and LBs cant tee off on the run every play. 

 

 

Thank you.       

[Tracy Denton]

I think Coleman will be something special !! Keep in mind that IU OL was horrible, if he was running behind...lets say Gordons line, he would have shattered the all time rushing title last year..and on a bad toe.

[Gavin]

To me:

 

1.Gurley

2.Gordon

3.Abdullah

4.Johnson

 

In that order.....and then everybody else, Coleman while he has the long speed is overrated in patience and vision and tackle breaking ability....Dustin is right on Coleman, I don't like Ajayi's patience and vision

[Deano1818]

 

 

" It's also reported that he has suffered a foot injury. Foot injuries basically killed Ahmad Bradshaw's career. "

 

 

 

The difference between Bradshaw and Coleman.......

 

Coleman had a foot injury AND gained 2000 yards

 

Bradshaw had foot injuries, and it pulled him off the field

 

To me this speaks of Colemans toughness 

[DougDew]

Abdullah is a back in the same mold as Duke Johnson. He doesn't offer quite the same amount of explosion and long speed, but he possesses elite agility and a lot of power for a runner his size. I think that of the two, Abdullah has the best chance of being a full-time starter, but he has a very, very bad fumbling issue (1 fumble every 35 touches) that could keep him in a reserve role.

Dustin,

I'm wondering if there is a way to tell WHEN during a game Abdullah fumbled. I know that the guy was basically Nebraska's offense last year. He would be taken out for breathers, but if he was in the game, he would basically be running or catching the ball a lot. And then, he would return kickoffs too.

Just wondering if his fumbling issues were related to fatigue...fumbling later in games than earlier. An issue that a properly coached football team would have managed a little better.

That's where a little more investigation into the stats might be beneficial.

[Gavin]

 

 

 

" It's also reported that he has suffered a foot injury. Foot injuries basically killed Ahmad Bradshaw's career. "

 

 

 

The difference between Bradshaw and Coleman.......

 

Coleman had a foot injury AND gained 2000 yards

 

Bradshaw had foot injuries, and it pulled him off the field

 

To me this speaks of Colemans toughness 

 

Foot injury for Coleman is overstating it....It was a TOE injury...sure it was on the foot...But it was a toe http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/college/indiana/2015/02/19/ius-tevin-coleman-ran-half-the-season-with-broken-toe/23695533/

[Hoose]

Seems like Coleman is being underappreciated for the terrible team he played for. IU had nothing, and I mean nothing, on offense. Every team simply waited for Coleman to get the ball. And he still produced amazingly well.

Compare that to players from Alabama; Nebraska; Wisconsin; Michigan St., Georgia; etc. They all had strong O-lines and tons of talent to clear the lanes for them.

Give this guy a little love. He properly will be picked early in Day 2 IMO. If he fell to the Colts, I'd be fine with his selection. He'd be the future behind Gore's one year stand.

[ColtsLegacy]

Found this nugget in an ESPN article where Todd McShay lists some of his favorite playmakers....   including guys like Tyler Lockett, Ameer Abdullah and Duke Johson....

 

Also there is Tevin Coleman with the following mind-blowing stats.....

 

 

He led the nation in 30-, 40-, 50- and 60-yard runs (with 9, 8, 6 and 5, respectively) and tied for the national lead in 70-, 80- and 90-yard runs (with 3, 2 and 1, respectively).

 

Do the math....   that's 34 runs of 30 or more yards in one season.  In a 12-game season,  that's nearly three times per game he's busting loose for a huge gain.   And he was basically the only threat on the team this year.

 

That SCREAMS top-100!   There's just no other way around it.    There are just not many people on the planet who can do that.

 

It's not 34 runs, it's 9 runs . . . The 90 yard run also accounts for 1 of the 80 yard runs, 1 70, 1 60, etc, etc.

[NewColtsFan]

It's not 34 runs, it's 9 runs . . . The 90 yard run also accounts for 1 of the 80 yard runs, 1 70, 1 60, etc, etc.

 

That's not my read at all....

 

It clearly says (9, 8, 6 and 5 respectively.)   and then it says (3, 2, 1, respectively)

 

That's how many of those specific runs for each category.........

 

Those are individual numbers to be added up....

 

I'm a professional writer by trade.    And that's how you'd say what I just described.

[ColtsLegacy]

That's not my read at all....

 

It clearly says (9, 8, 6 and 5 respectively.)   and then it says (3, 2, 1, respectively)

 

That's how many of those specific runs for each category.........

 

Those are individual numbers to be added up....

 

I'm a professional writer by trade.    And that's how you'd say what I just described.

 

I think you're right now that I look at it. Though, statistically a 90 yard run would tick the box for all the rest and the fact that the number of runs decreased for the bigger runs respectively, I just assumed the writer was including duplicate runs. Plus, 34 runs of 30+ (so he led the nation with 34 30 yard carries not 9, in my mind) just seemed exorbitantly high.

[Shive]

I absolutely love Jay Ajayi and think he'll be a very good bell-cow back for years to come.

I'm with Dustin on the Coleman analysis. I like him, but think that a lot of production came from breaking the long runs that typically won't be there in the NFL. I understand that he had a terrible oline, but I still don't see consistent production.

[Gavin]

The biggest problem I see with Coleman is run tempo needs a lot of improvement(To much fast to the hole fast through the hole....Needs to be slower to the hole THEN BURST through the hole...otherwise you just wind up running your O Linemans back if the hole is not where you run) along with tackle breaking ability

[NewColtsFan]

I think you're right now that I look at it. Though, statistically a 90 yard run would tick the box for all the rest and the fact that the number of runs decreased for the bigger runs respectively, I just assumed the writer was including duplicate runs. Plus, 34 runs of 30+ (so he led the nation with 34 30 yard carries not 9, in my mind) just seemed exorbitantly high.

 

I know....   to me too!

 

But those 2000 yard he Coleman gained last year came from some place....

 

I've been trying to make this point with another poster.....    I hope he sees this,  though I'm not sure it will do any good....

 

No worries....   Thanks for the response....   

[Dustin]

Plus, 34 runs of 30+ (so he led the nation with 34 30 yard carries not 9, in my mind) just seemed exorbitantly high.

 

He only had 29 carries of 15+ yards. So there's no way he had 34 carries of 30+ I don't know what numbers NCF is talking about. 

 

57% of his yards were on breakaway runs. Justin Forsett (the NFL leader) only had 41.7%. That's completely flukey and unsustainable. 

[runtelldat]

While I agree with some of your picks I must say I strongly disagree with you on Tevon Coleman. You got him ranked 10th? lol

 

In time you will see you was wrong on this kid. That is all...

[Dustin]

Do the math....   that's 34 runs of 30 or more yards in one season. 

 

Uhh, no it isn't. He only had 29 carries for 15+ yards. ColtsLegacy is right. 

[Gavin]

I know....   to me too!

 

But those 2000 yard he Coleman gained last year came from some place....

 

I've been trying to make this point with another poster.....    I hope he sees this,  though I'm not sure it will do any good....

 

No worries....   Thanks for the response....   

A very very underrated O Line that executed fantastically run blocking

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Long run off the defense being forced to play a QB that can run

 

 

Im certainly not discrediting Coleman but he wont be able to get the hand off and just go like he did at IU, I think he will be a solid Back and once he learns better run tempo and gets more power in his legs he could be a great Back