Dustin's Updated RB Rankings.

[Dustin]

A very very underrated O Line that executed fantastically run blocking

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Long run off the defense being forced to play a QB that can run

 

 

Im certainly not discrediting Coleman but he wont be able to get the hand off and just go like he did at IU, I think he will be a solid Back and once he learns better run tempo and gets more power in his legs he could be a great Back

 

I'm halfway through the Iowa game and he hasn't ran against an uneven (more defenders than blockers) box yet. 

[Gavin]

I'm halfway through the Iowa game and he ran against an uneven (more defenders than blockers) box yet. 

You watching the whole game? If so is it on youtube?

[Dustin]

You watching the whole game? If so is it on youtube?

 

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/tevin-coleman-vs-iowa-2014/

[NewColtsFan]

Uhh, no it isn't. He only had 29 carries for 15+ yards. ColtsLegacy is right. 

 

Re-read Colts Legacy.     He said the number was 9 runs of 30 or more yards.    Even you are not saying that.   So, CL was NOT right, and he's agreed with me.

 

You're going to have to give me your source on the number.      My source is on this one is ESPN.

 

But either way, we're disagreeing over 29 runs and 34 runs.

 

And all of this complete nonsense simply because a long time ago you called Coleman a 4th round guy and have refused to move off it.

 

A complete waste of time for everyone involved.

 

You might as well argue the moon is made of swiss cheese.....

[NewColtsFan]

To me:

 

1.Gurley

2.Gordon

3.Abdullah

4.Johnson

 

In that order.....and then everybody else, Coleman while he has the long speed is overrated in patience and vision and tackle breaking ability....Dustin is right on Coleman, I don't like Ajayi's patience and vision

 

You'd better elaborate what you think Dustin is right about Coleman?

 

Because Dustin calls him a 4th round pick.   

 

I think that's completely laughable.

[Dustin]

Re-read Colts Legacy.     He said the number was 9 runs of 30 or more yards.    Even you are not saying that.   So, CL was NOT right, and he's agreed with me.

 

You're going to have to give me your source on the number.      My source is NFL.com

 

But either way, we're disagreeing over 29 runs and 34 runs.

 

No we're not. He only had 29 runs of 15+ yards to begin with. There's no way he could have had as many 30+ yard gains as you are saying. 34 carries of 30+ yards is lunacy, you are reading it wrong. 

 

[NewColtsFan]

No we're not. He only had 29 runs of 15+ yards to begin with. There's no way he could have had as many 30+ yard gains as you are saying. 34 carries of 30+ yards is lunacy, you are reading it wrong. 

 

 

Well.....    here is stats from Indiana University....   the school that keeps his official records...

 

 

http://www.iuhoosiers.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/tevin_coleman_808916.html

[Gavin]

You'd better elaborate what you think Dustin is right about Coleman?

 

Because Dustin calls him a 4th round pick.   

 

I think that's completely laughable.

He will likely go higher then a 4th round pick (Im thinking 3rd) but his run tempo is awful (though correctable).....He is fast to the hole and fast through the hole....If its there....He don't show ability to create if the hole is not there....Much of his running style literally reminds me of Donald Brown in that way(I call them Darters....running backs that can go the distance but get you 2-3 ypc otherwise and will take time to learn to create if the hole the play is designed to go through is not there) though Coleman might have more explosiveness

[Dustin]

Well..... here is stats from Indiana University.... the school that keeps his official records...

http://www.iuhoosiers.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/tevin_coleman_808916.html

Yes you are still not reading it correctly.

[NewColtsFan]

Yes you are still not reading it correctly.

 

Yeah,   well I can't help but notice that you're not telling me any other way to read it.

 

You're just saying this is wrong.

 

But can you make it read right?     Please tell me.

[Dustin]

Yeah,   well I can't help but notice that you're not telling me any other way to read it.

 

You're just saying this is wrong.

 

But can you make it read right?     Please tell me.

 

The numbers you quoted are TD runs. 

 

Read it again:

 

• He led the country in 30- (9), 40- (8), 50- (6) and 60- (5), tied for the top spot in 70- (3), 80- (2) and 90- (1), and was second in 20-yard TD runs (10).

 

They compound as well. A 90 yard TD is also an 80, 70, 60, 50, 40, and 30+ yard TD as well.

 

Notice how he has one 83 yard TD on the season, but has two listed on the teams website? That's because they are counting the 90 yarder as well. 

[Gavin]

Yeah,   well I can't help but notice that you're not telling me any other way to read it.

 

You're just saying this is wrong.

 

But can you make it read right?     Please tell me.

Nevermind all that

[Gavin]

 I got it now, Thanks Dustin

[ColtsLegacy]

The numbers you quoted are TD runs. 

 

Read it again:

 

• He led the country in 30- (9), 40- (8), 50- (6) and 60- (5), tied for the top spot in 70- (3), 80- (2) and 90- (1), and was second in 20-yard TD runs (10).

 

They compound as well. A 90 yard TD is also an 80, 70, 60, 50, 40, and 30+ yard TD as well.

 

Notice how he has one 83 yard TD on the season, but has two listed on the teams website? That's because they are counting the 90 yarder as well. 

 

Ah-ha! You're right, it's TD runs. That wasn't in the original quote from NCF. Seeing as how Coleman certainly didn't score 44 TDs that proves the TD runs are compounded. I figured they would be, it doesn't say "30-39", it says "30-", open ended. I should have stuck to my guns!

 

Anyway, that line is extremely poorly worded. It should mention "TD runs" before the last two damn words in the sentence.

[a06cc]

I think Pagano/Grigson is going to go for Yeldon mid rounds

I would do the same, a very underrated player. Can learn behind Gore. He is the best blocking back in my opinion. Watch a lot of his tape. I have no clue why they're saying he can't pass block. He doesn't do any extra stuff either. He gets what yards he can get.

[NewColtsFan]

Dustin....

 

Just finished nearly an hour of going through the Indiana University website...

 

Game by game...    carry by carry.     Charted every carry from Coleman.

 

You are correct.      29 carries of more than 15 yards.

 

Still can't help but notice, that he's first on your list.    That means he's ahead of.....   everyone.

 

Coleman's 7.5 yard average for his 2000+ yard season is 5th best out of the 18  2,000 yard rushing season's.

 

And it's not a one year thing.   Coleman gained nearly 1,000 yards the year before with a 7.3 yard per carry.

 

So, over his last two years,  he's got roughly 3,000 on 400 carries.   That's nearly a 7.5 avg over two seasons.

 

Gordon you have as a high 2nd rounder....    Coleman is a 4th rounder for you.    I don't know what more you want?

 

All the things you say he can't do,  the reviews say the opposite.   

 

The statistical analysis you value so much is all in his favor.

[Gavin]

Dustin....

 

Just finished nearly an hour of going through the Indiana University website...

 

Game by game...    carry by carry.     Charted every carry from Coleman.

 

You are correct.      29 carries of more than 15 yards.

 

Still can't help but notice, that he's first on your list.    That means he's ahead of.....   everyone.

 

Coleman's 7.5 yard average for his 2000+ yard season is 5th best out of the 18  2,000 yard rushing season's.

 

And it's not a one year thing.   Coleman gained nearly 1,000 yards the year before with a 7.3 yard per carry.

 

So, over his last two years,  he's got roughly 3,000 on 400 carries.   That's nearly a 7.5 avg over two seasons.

 

Gordon you have as a high 2nd rounder....    Coleman is a 4th rounder for you.    I don't know what more you want?

 

All the things you say he can't do,  the reviews say the opposite.   

 

The statistical analysis you value so much is all in his favor.

Weaknesses

Treats every carry like a sprint. Must improve run tempo and patience on stretch plays. Has to learn when to keep run play-side and improve patience to allow back-side cutback lanes to develop. Can improve as receiver out of backfield. Wasn't always in position to scan defense on screen passes, resulting in lost yardage. Pad level often a little high into contact. Not much of a tackle-breaker and allows his base to get too narrow, giving defenders a chance to end play prematurely. Less creative than most of the top-level backs in this draft. Could use more creativity once he gets to the second level.

 

 

From NFL.com Sums it well I think

[Dustin]

Weaknesses

Treats every carry like a sprint. Must improve run tempo and patience on stretch plays. Has to learn when to keep run play-side and improve patience to allow back-side cutback lanes to develop. Can improve as receiver out of backfield. Wasn't always in position to scan defense on screen passes, resulting in lost yardage. Pad level often a little high into contact. Not much of a tackle-breaker and allows his base to get too narrow, giving defenders a chance to end play prematurely. Less creative than most of the top-level backs in this draft. Could use more creativity once he gets to the second level.

From NFL.com Sums it well I think

Yup. This is accurate.

[NewColtsFan]

Weaknesses

Treats every carry like a sprint. Must improve run tempo and patience on stretch plays. Has to learn when to keep run play-side and improve patience to allow back-side cutback lanes to develop. Can improve as receiver out of backfield. Wasn't always in position to scan defense on screen passes, resulting in lost yardage. Pad level often a little high into contact. Not much of a tackle-breaker and allows his base to get too narrow, giving defenders a chance to end play prematurely. Less creative than most of the top-level backs in this draft. Could use more creativity once he gets to the second level.

 

 

From NFL.com Sums it well I think

 

 

Gavin.....

 

I'm the one who pays close attention to these profiles.    Dustin does not.   He trusts his own judgement more.

 

And what you failed to notice from the very profile you cited was that the round projection for him is 2nd/3rd.    And if you go to the "rank by grade"  they've got Coleman ranked 44th overall.    Do you know where 44th is?     Near the middle of the 2nd round.    Dustin has him in the 4th,  out of the top 100.

 

For the record,  Scouts Inc has Coleman 68th, top of the 3rd,  CBS Sports has him 53rd.   I've got him 55th.

Again,  Dustin has him out of the top-100.

 

And that about sums it up......

[Gavin]

Gavin.....

 

I'm the one who pays close attention to these profiles.    Dustin does not.   He trusts his own judgement more.

 

And what you failed to notice from the very profile you cited was that the round projection for him is 2nd/3rd.    And if you go to the "rank by grade"  they've got Coleman ranked 44th overall.    Do you know where 44th is?     Near the middle of the 2nd round.    Dustin has him in the 4th,  out of the top 100.

 

For the record,  Scouts Inc has Coleman 68th, top of the 3rd,  CBS Sports has him 53rd.   I've got him 55th.

Again,  Dustin has him out of the top-100.

 

And that about sums it up......

I got him at 83, Just past the midway point of the 3rd round

[SteelCityColt]

If I may chuck my two penneth (Sterling ) into the Coleman debate:

 

I don't really a horse in the race so just as an observer, I did find it a little amusing (but in a good way!) to the depth we were looking into one statistic. By and large aren't college numbers pretty useless as a metric for judging players given the huge lack of parity in the college game? Sure they can give you a very high level idea of what type of player you're getting but beyond that I think we're back to the golden rule (as I've been told it) and that is look at the tape. I've heard a number of former scouts pass this opinion and interestingly also say that you can almost pretty much dist

 

Now when you're looking at tape then it is solely going to be a matter of opinion and opinions will vary widely, same as all the draft profiles that are written, they're opinion pieces and can't be held up as gospel. Of course you're going to give me credence to certain writers over others. The main thrust of the disagreement here seems to be where Coleman will be picked, and the short answer is nobody knows. Outside of top tier talent we all know it can become a bit of a crap shot as the emergent system that is the draft plays out. It's a deep class at RB so I could seem him easily slipping out of the top 3 rounds, same as I could see a team falling in love and taking him in the 2nd. You just don't know, so to scream blue murder because someone grades him as outside the top 100.... well it shows passion for the player . What I will say about Coleman from my own personal opinion is that he's very upright as a runner and seems to not be a tackle breaker for all his size. When you're NFL comparison is Darren McFadden (I've seen that in a few places), it's probably not a good thing.

 

What I will say in addition on a personal level is Dustin puts in a lot of work, and whether you agree with his gradings or not I think he deserves some plaudits for adding some very decent content to the forums. As Moderator I would say that so far this and other topics have provided some good hearted football debate so let's try and keep it that way and not stray into personal sniping please .

[NewColtsFan]

For what it's worth....

 

These are the 29 runs of 15 or more yards that Coleman got in the 2014 season.

 

Vs. Indiana St.

73, 16, 31

 

Vs. Bowling Green

15, 28, 46, 31

 

Vs.  Mizzou

49, 17

 

Vs. Maryland

43

 

Vs. North Texas

74  

 

Vs. Iowa

83, 45, 69 

 

Vs. MSU

65, 30    

 

Vs. Michigan

17

 

Vs. Penn St.

17

 

Vs. Rutgers

18, 17, 67, 68 

 

Vs. tOSU

16, 90, 56

 

Vs. Perdue

24, 20

 

I don't know how these numbers translate into the numbers the Indiana Website posts.   They make no sense to me.

 

The don't add up to what I originally thought,  nor do they add up to what CL originally thought. 

 

Either way,   the look like video game numbers to me...  totally freakish...    way out of the ordinary. 

 

1,000 his sophomore year.   2,000 his junior year.   4.4 speed.   7.5 avg per carry for two years. 

 

I don't see how this is not a top-100 player.

[Deano1818]

Weaknesses

Treats every carry like a sprint. Must improve run tempo and patience on stretch plays. Has to learn when to keep run play-side and improve patience to allow back-side cutback lanes to develop. Can improve as receiver out of backfield. Wasn't always in position to scan defense on screen passes, resulting in lost yardage. Pad level often a little high into contact. Not much of a tackle-breaker and allows his base to get too narrow, giving defenders a chance to end play prematurely. Less creative than most of the top-level backs in this draft. Could use more creativity once he gets to the second level.

 

 

From NFL.com Sums it well I think

 

"Could use more creativity once he gets to the second level?????"

"Less Creative than most....."

 

Are they talking about a football player or a painter

 

The guy was amazing when he got past the LOS.

 

 

 

I have the popcorn out on this one, and hope the Colts can pick him up, but I fear he is gone before we pick in round 2

 

Four days from now, we will really understand how the Colts feel about the RB position

 

 

 

I am still betting we go QB, P, and K....... THEN BPA  

[Gavin]

For what it's worth....

 

These are the 29 runs of 15 or more yards that Coleman got in the 2014 season.

 

Vs. Indiana St.

73, 16, 31

 

Vs. Bowling Green

15, 28, 46, 31

 

Vs.  Mizzou

49, 17

 

Vs. Maryland

43

 

Vs. North Texas

74  

 

Vs. Iowa

83, 45, 69 

 

Vs. MSU

65, 30    

 

Vs. Michigan

17

 

Vs. Penn St.

17

 

Vs. Rutgers

18, 17, 67, 68 

 

Vs. tOSU

16, 90, 56

 

Vs. Perdue

24, 20

 

I don't know how these numbers translate into the numbers the Indiana Website posts.   They make no sense to me.

 

The don't add up to what I originally thought,  nor do they add up to what CL originally thought. 

 

Either way,   the look like video game numbers to me...  totally freakish...    way out of the ordinary. 

 

1,000 his sophomore year.   2,000 his junior year.   4.4 speed.   7.5 avg per carry for two years. 

 

I don't see how this is not a top-100 player.

I think he is a top 100 player like I mentioned above but keep in mind when evaluating prospects its not about the yards they gained but about the tools and how he got them.......And on several of those long runs his O Line played fantastic and just wiped out the D Line, Again I think Coleman will be a good Back but it takes more then numbers in college to show that

[NewColtsFan]

I think he is a top 100 player like I mentioned above but keep in mind when evaluating prospects its not about the yards they gained but about the tools and how he got them.......And on several of those long runs his O Line played fantastic and just wiped out the D Line, Again I think Coleman will be a good Back but it takes more then numbers in college to show that

 

I think Coleman's numbers are all the more remarkable because there was so little else on that offense.

 

He was the one true weapon.   Everyone in the stadium knew the plan was to get the ball to Coleman.

 

And it's not like he had a great OL to work with.    Indiana is not to be confused with Wisconsin or Ohio St.

 

Again,  I'm not saying Coleman is great.    I'm only saying he's got some clear plus-skills that can be taken advantage of.

 

He doesn't even have to be the lead back to be a benefit.   He can be the complimentary back as I expect Abdullah and Duke Johnson to be....

 

I think all that makes Coleman an easy top-100.    This aint brain surgery.

[Gavin]

I think Coleman's numbers are all the more remarkable because there was so little else on that offense.

 

He was the one true weapon.   Everyone in the stadium knew the plan was to get the ball to Coleman.

 

And it's not like he had a great OL to work with.    Indiana is not to be confused with Wisconsin or Ohio St.

 

Again,  I'm not saying Coleman is great.    I'm only saying he's got some clear plus-skills that can be taken advantage of.

 

He doesn't even have to be the lead back to be a benefit.   He can be the complimentary back as I expect Abdullah and Duke Johnson to be....

 

I think all that makes Coleman an easy top-100.    This aint brain surgery.

He has a lot of skills to work with for sure but I think him not having a QB is an overstatement....Here is what IU's starting QB did prior to getting hurt vs Iowa in game 6 of the season http://www.iuhoosiers.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/nate_sudfeld_807798.html

 

Now his replacement was not nearly as good passing but he was a running threat

http://www.iuhoosiers.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/zander_diamont_889734.html

 

 

Again Im not discrediting anything Coleman did in college, He certainly has plenty of skills to work with but I think his numbers can be misleading

[ColtsLegacy]

For what it's worth....

These are the 29 runs of 15 or more yards that Coleman got in the 2014 season.

Vs. Indiana St.

73, 16, 31

Vs. Bowling Green

15, 28, 46, 31

Vs. Mizzou

49, 17

Vs. Maryland

43

Vs. North Texas

74

Vs. Iowa

83, 45, 69

Vs. MSU

65, 30

Vs. Michigan

17

Vs. Penn St.

17

Vs. Rutgers

18, 17, 67, 68

Vs. tOSU

16, 90, 56

Vs. Perdue

24, 20

I don't know how these numbers translate into the numbers the Indiana Website posts. They make no sense to me.

The don't add up to what I originally thought, nor do they add up to what CL originally thought.

Either way, the look like video game numbers to me... totally freakish... way out of the ordinary.

1,000 his sophomore year. 2,000 his junior year. 4.4 speed. 7.5 avg per carry for two years.

I don't see how this is not a top-100 player.

Dustin already explained it here . . .

The numbers you quoted are TD runs.

Read it again:

• He led the country in 30- (9), 40- (8), 50- (6) and 60- (5), tied for the top spot in 70- (3), 80- (2) and 90- (1), and was second in 20-yard TD runs (10).

They compound as well. A 90 yard TD is also an 80, 70, 60, 50, 40, and 30+ yard TD as well.

Notice how he has one 83 yard TD on the season, but has two listed on the teams website? That's because they are counting the 90 yarder as well.

They were TD runs and the stats compound, so it was 9 total runs (as I said originally) for TDs (your original quote did not mention they were TDs).

I was right the first time but the fact that it wasn't specified that they were TD runs threw me off because I was pretty sure Coleman had more than 9 runs for 30+ yards.

[NewColtsFan]

Dustin already explained it here . . .

They were TD runs and the stats compound, so it was 9 total runs (as I said originally) for TDs (your original quote did not mention they were TDs).

I was right the first time but the fact that it wasn't specified that they were TD runs threw me off because I was pretty sure Coleman had more than 9 runs for 30+ yards.

 

You mis-read me.

 

I understand Dustin's numbers.    And I've acknowledged he's right.    I've posted that.

 

But the numbers on the school website simply don't make much sense....

 

You looked at them and came up with 9.     That's not right.    And I don't know how you came up with that.

 

I look at them and came up with 34.     And that's not right.

 

I think the school laid it out in a very confusing way.....   not deliberately of course,  but it doesn't add up to me...

[ColtsLegacy]

You mis-read me.

I understand Dustin's numbers. And I've acknowledged he's right. I've posted that.

But the numbers on the school website simply don't make much sense....

You looked at them and came up with 9. That's not right. And I don't know how you came up with that.

I look at them and came up with 34. And that's not right.

I think the school laid it out in a very confusing way..... not deliberately of course, but it doesn't add up to me...

But, it is 9 runs, 9 TD runs of 30 yards or more. That was the clarification Dustin made. Where's the disconnect?

Here for your reference once again:

• He led the country in 30- (9), 40- (8), 50- (6) and 60- (5), tied for the top spot in 70- (3), 80- (2) and 90- (1), and was second in 20-yard TD runs(10).

Now unless Coleman had 34 TDs over 30 yards then the numbers compound and he had 9 TDs over 30 yards (meaning 30-99.9 yards), 8 over 40 (40 to 99.9), 6 over 50 (50 to 99.9), etc.

Meaning my explanation for it being 9 runs, not 34, was correct in the first place, the caveat being that the stat was specifically for TD runs, not any run, as your quote originally presented it.

[NewColtsFan]

But, it is 9 runs, 9 TD runs of 30 yards or more. That was the clarification Dustin made. Where's the disconnect?

Here for your reference once again:

• He led the country in 30- (9), 40- (8), 50- (6) and 60- (5), tied for the top spot in 70- (3), 80- (2) and 90- (1), and was second in 20-yard TD runs(10).

Now unless Coleman had 34 TDs over 30 yards then the numbers compound and he had 9 TDs over 30 yards (meaning 30-99.9 yards), 8 over 40 (40 to 99.9), 6 over 50 (50 to 99.9), etc.

 

I never once mentioned TD runs.      Not once.     Not in any post.     I don't care about TD runs.

 

Dustin did, for whatever reason.    Perhaps he thought it would clarify.     It didn't.

 

I think the way Indiana laid out his runs is incredibly poor and leads to nothing but confusion.     Take for example,  this thread,  which is filled with it.

[ColtsLegacy]

I never once mentioned TD runs. Not once. Not in any post. I don't care about TD runs.

Dustin did, for whatever reason. Perhaps he thought it would clarify. It didn't.

I think the way Indiana laid out his runs is incredibly poor and leads to nothing but confusion. Take for example, this thread, which is filled with it.

Quote from your original post:

He led the nation in 30-, 40-, 50- and 60-yard runs (with 9, 8, 6 and 5, respectively) and tied for the national lead in 70-, 80- and 90-yard runs (with 3, 2 and 1, respectively).

Quote from IUs football site, that you linked to:

• He led the country in 30- (9), 40- (8), 50- (6) and 60- (5), tied for the top spot in 70- (3), 80- (2) and 90- (1), and was second in 20-yard TD runs(10).

Are these 2 quotes not referring to the same stats? The one from IU is clearly referring to TD runs (though, admittedly, it is worded poorly) and yours makes no mention of TDs. True, you never did mention TD runs because you omitted that fact and Dustin corrected you.

And the fact that it's TD runs makes it evident that the stats compound, as I originally pointed out.

Edit: A Lions writer referencing the same quote:

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2015/03/16/detroit-lions-indiana-tevin-coleman/24853963/

At 5-113/8 and 206 pounds, Coleman has blazing speed and is the definition of a home run hitter. He led the nation with touchdown runs of 30-plus yards (9 TDs), 40-plus (8 TDs), 50-plus (6 TD) and 60-plus (5 TDs), and tied for the lead with three touchdowns of 70 yards or more. Coleman's average touchdown distance last season was an astounding 40.3 yards.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Robinson video kid looks good. Coleman is who I want though. Again to me he looks like a more physical Eric Dickerson. If he his half of that we got a winner

[Gavin]

Every single one of Colemans runs are available to view on ESPN (the yards gained I mean, stat line)

 

All you have to do is click on the score of the games then scroll down and click Play By Play

 

That's a lot of work (I started to list the TD's but decided not to....He had 15 td runs his senior year and 28 in 3 years)

 

 

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/535801/tevin-coleman

[SP_21]

I'm curious as to why people like Ajayi? I've watched most of his film on DB and am just not impressed even against lesser competition. Can someone enlighten me.

Also he take a beating every game... I'm not sure why he takes so many violent or awkward hits.