PFF Ranks Ballard In 2nd Tier (MERGE)

[John Hammonds]

So, what are you going to do when the Colts are on a bye?  Be a rabble rouser!  I rouse rabble!  Rouse rouse rouse!

 

This week, PFF did a ranking of general managers.  And, hey presto, Chris Ballard was not in their highest ranking.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-general-manager-rankings-2023-eagles-howie-roseman-chiefs-brett-veach

 

They made their determinations based on:

1. Draft pick production compared to expectation
2. Positional value consideration
3. Draft trade value
4. Free-agent signing value compared to expectation
5. Early extensions

 

Their commentary on Ballard:

 

"The Colts' roster in recent years has resembled a Whac-A-Mole board, where one glaring deficiency has been able to tank what is otherwise a team with talented trench units. For 2023, the secondary is devoid of building-block talent outside of second-round rookie Julius Brents, but the offensive line is seemingly back playing to its talent level after atrophying in 2022. With a lot of positives on display from rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who we won’t see again until 2024 due to injury, there’s reason to believe maybe Ballard can build a true contender for the first time since the end of the Andrew Luck era.

Ballard’s best move in a while appears to be the hiring of head coach Shane Steichen, and there should be optimism going forward. Ballard may need to supplement this roster with more free-agent talent than he’s been willing to target in the past, but that’s how you take advantage of the rookie contract window — in moderation, of course."

 

Ranking:

TIER 1: CLEAR VISION, SOUND PROCESS, BALANCE OF SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES

Howie Roseman, Eagles

Brett Veach, Chiefs

Duke Tobin, Bengals

Jerry Jones, Cowboys

Bill Belichick, Patriots

TIER 2: CLEAR VISION, MOSTLY SOUND PROCESS, SOMETIMES FOCUSED ON “WINDOWS”

Brandon Beane, Bills

John Schneider, Seahawks

John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan, 49'ers

Eric DeCosta, Ravens

Brad Holmes, Lions

Jason Licht, Buccaneers

Les Snead, Rams

Brian Gutekunst, Packers

Chris Ballard, Colts

Joe Douglas, Jets

Andrew Berry, Browns

TIER 3: QUESTIONABLE PROCESS, VARYING RESULTS

Micky Loomis, Saints

Chris Grier, Dolphins

Terry Fontenot, Falcons

Tom Telesco, Chargers

Trent Baalke, Jaguars

Nick Caserio, Texans

George Paton, Broncos

Ron Rivera/Martin Mayhew, Commanders

Scott Fitterer, Panthers

TOO NEW

Omar Khan, Steelers

Monti Ossenfort, Cardinals

Ryan Poles, Bears

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Vikings

Joe Schoen, Giants

Ran Carthon, Titans

Champ Kelly, Raiders

[#12.]

11 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

The Colts' roster in recent years has resembled a Whac-A-Mole board, where one glaring deficiency has been able to tank what is otherwise a team with talented trench units

 

Pretty much. 

 

Every year at Ballard's postseason press conference:  "I'm so dumb, I shouldn't have neglected this particular unit, position or area."  

 

It's something different every year.

[Smonroe]

The building block players of any successful team are QB, LT, and Pass Rusher.

 

We think we have the first two.  Ballard had a chance to pick up the third one, but apparently they were all too expensive for him.  I still don’t understand why.  Any of the three would be an improvement.  And if they don’t work out, you move on.

 

I think Ballard likes draft picks better than players sometimes.  

[MikeCurtis]

The smugness has dropped a bit

 

Humility is a good teacher

[NewColtsFan]

53 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

The building block players of any successful team are QB, LT, and Pass Rusher.

 

We think we have the first two.  Ballard had a chance to pick up the third one, but apparently they were all too expensive for him.  I still don’t understand why.  Any of the three would be an improvement.  And if they don’t work out, you move on.

 

I think Ballard likes draft picks better than players sometimes.  

Not sure I follow….  Ballard had a chance to pickup the third one but they were all too expensive.     Are you talking about Sweat and Young?   

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

So, what are you going to do when the Colts are on a bye?  Be a rabble rouser!  I rouse rabble!  Rouse rouse rouse!

 

This week, PFF did a ranking of general managers.  And, hey presto, Chris Ballard was not in their highest ranking.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-general-manager-rankings-2023-eagles-howie-roseman-chiefs-brett-veach

 

They made their determinations based on:

1. Draft pick production compared to expectation
2. Positional value consideration
3. Draft trade value
4. Free-agent signing value compared to expectation
5. Early extensions

 

Their commentary on Ballard:

 

"The Colts' roster in recent years has resembled a Whac-A-Mole board, where one glaring deficiency has been able to tank what is otherwise a team with talented trench units. For 2023, the secondary is devoid of building-block talent outside of second-round rookie Julius Brents, but the offensive line is seemingly back playing to its talent level after atrophying in 2022. With a lot of positives on display from rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who we won’t see again until 2024 due to injury, there’s reason to believe maybe Ballard can build a true contender for the first time since the end of the Andrew Luck era.

Ballard’s best move in a while appears to be the hiring of head coach Shane Steichen, and there should be optimism going forward. Ballard may need to supplement this roster with more free-agent talent than he’s been willing to target in the past, but that’s how you take advantage of the rookie contract window — in moderation, of course."

 

Ranking:

TIER 1: CLEAR VISION, SOUND PROCESS, BALANCE OF SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES

Howie Roseman, Eagles

Brett Veach, Chiefs

Duke Tobin, Bengals

Jerry Jones, Cowboys

Bill Belichick, Patriots

TIER 2: CLEAR VISION, MOSTLY SOUND PROCESS, SOMETIMES FOCUSED ON “WINDOWS”

Brandon Beane, Bills

John Schneider, Seahawks

John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan, 49'ers

Eric DeCosta, Ravens

Brad Holmes, Lions

Jason Licht, Buccaneers

Les Snead, Rams

Brian Gutekunst, Packers

Chris Ballard, Colts

Joe Douglas, Jets

Andrew Berry, Browns

TIER 3: QUESTIONABLE PROCESS, VARYING RESULTS

Micky Loomis, Saints

Chris Grier, Dolphins

Terry Fontenot, Falcons

Tom Telesco, Chargers

Trent Baalke, Jaguars

Nick Caserio, Texans

George Paton, Broncos

Ron Rivera/Martin Mayhew, Commanders

Scott Fitterer, Panthers

TOO NEW

Omar Khan, Steelers

Monti Ossenfort, Cardinals

Ryan Poles, Bears

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Vikings

Joe Schoen, Giants

Ran Carthon, Titans

Champ Kelly, Raiders

 

I have no real issue with Ballard’s ranking.  14th seems about right.   It’s not unreasonable.   
 

But I admit that the first tier had some names I wasn’t expecting to see that high….  
 

Duke Tobin. Cincy

Jerry Jones.  Dallas

Bill Belichick.    NE.  
 

How long has Tobin been in Cincy?   They had a stretch of 6 straight seasons where they won 2-6 games.   Was that in his watch?    If so,  how does he merit top tier?

 

Jerry Jones?    Top tier?    Really?   I don’t think he’s as bad as some make him out to be, but top tier?    Not for me.  
 

Finally what I often read is that GM Belichick often lets down HC Belichick.   He might’ve been top tier years ago, but I don’t think as much of late. 
 

All just my two cents….   
 

Good post, John!   

[Solid84]

1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

So, what are you going to do when the Colts are on a bye?  Be a rabble rouser!  I rouse rabble!  Rouse rouse rouse!

 

This week, PFF did a ranking of general managers.  And, hey presto, Chris Ballard was not in their highest ranking.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-general-manager-rankings-2023-eagles-howie-roseman-chiefs-brett-veach

 

They made their determinations based on:

1. Draft pick production compared to expectation
2. Positional value consideration
3. Draft trade value
4. Free-agent signing value compared to expectation
5. Early extensions

 

Their commentary on Ballard:

 

"The Colts' roster in recent years has resembled a Whac-A-Mole board, where one glaring deficiency has been able to tank what is otherwise a team with talented trench units. For 2023, the secondary is devoid of building-block talent outside of second-round rookie Julius Brents, but the offensive line is seemingly back playing to its talent level after atrophying in 2022. With a lot of positives on display from rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who we won’t see again until 2024 due to injury, there’s reason to believe maybe Ballard can build a true contender for the first time since the end of the Andrew Luck era.

Ballard’s best move in a while appears to be the hiring of head coach Shane Steichen, and there should be optimism going forward. Ballard may need to supplement this roster with more free-agent talent than he’s been willing to target in the past, but that’s how you take advantage of the rookie contract window — in moderation, of course."

 

Ranking:

TIER 1: CLEAR VISION, SOUND PROCESS, BALANCE OF SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES

Howie Roseman, Eagles

Brett Veach, Chiefs

Duke Tobin, Bengals

Jerry Jones, Cowboys

Bill Belichick, Patriots

TIER 2: CLEAR VISION, MOSTLY SOUND PROCESS, SOMETIMES FOCUSED ON “WINDOWS”

Brandon Beane, Bills

John Schneider, Seahawks

John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan, 49'ers

Eric DeCosta, Ravens

Brad Holmes, Lions

Jason Licht, Buccaneers

Les Snead, Rams

Brian Gutekunst, Packers

Chris Ballard, Colts

Joe Douglas, Jets

Andrew Berry, Browns

TIER 3: QUESTIONABLE PROCESS, VARYING RESULTS

Micky Loomis, Saints

Chris Grier, Dolphins

Terry Fontenot, Falcons

Tom Telesco, Chargers

Trent Baalke, Jaguars

Nick Caserio, Texans

George Paton, Broncos

Ron Rivera/Martin Mayhew, Commanders

Scott Fitterer, Panthers

TOO NEW

Omar Khan, Steelers

Monti Ossenfort, Cardinals

Ryan Poles, Bears

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Vikings

Joe Schoen, Giants

Ran Carthon, Titans

Champ Kelly, Raiders

Oof, yeah, Belichick tier 1? That puts a big question mark this overall ranking in my opinion. 
 

Edit: Didn’t even see Jones in tier 1. Just saw Belichick and went WHAT?! Jones has no place in tier 1 either. 

[Smonroe]

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Not sure I follow….  Ballard had a chance to pickup the third one but they were all too expensive.     Are you talking about Sweat and Young?   

For sure with Sweat and Young.  BTW, Sweat’s heart condition was misdiagnosed.  We also could have gone after Williams, but I can understand not doing that.

 

What I really wanted to see was Ballard making a run for Brian Burns.  He most likely will be moving on next season.  
 

And I’m not talking about what they could do for us this season, I’m taking the long haul.  Or we can keep drafting them and hope one turns out…. Kwity, Dayo, Lewis, all good players.  None of them great.  

 

[Solid84]

1 hour ago, Smonroe said:

The building block players of any successful team are QB, LT, and Pass Rusher.

 

We think we have the first two.  Ballard had a chance to pick up the third one, but apparently they were all too expensive for him.  I still don’t understand why.  Any of the three would be an improvement.  And if they don’t work out, you move on.

 

I think Ballard likes draft picks better than players sometimes.  

Someone here speculated Young to the 9’ers could just be a rental - they wouldn’t be able to pay him this offseason. 
 

We may still have a shot at him - theoretically. 

[Smonroe]

Just now, Solid84 said:

Someone here speculated Young to the 9’ers could just be a rental - they wouldn’t be able to pay him this offseason. 
 

We may still have a shot at him - theoretically. 

I think you’re right, he’s a rental. But we had the chance to rent him, get to know him, and maybe make the first offer.  Or not, if they didn’t think he was the guy.  
 

Worst case, we waste a draft pick. (How many #2s have we wasted already?) Best case, we finally have an edge rusher that teams would be concerned about.  

[Solid84]

3 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I think you’re right, he’s a rental. But we had the chance to rent him, get to know him, and maybe make the first offer.  Or not, if they didn’t think he was the guy.  
 

Worst case, we waste a draft pick. (How many #2s have we wasted already?) Best case, we finally have an edge rusher that teams would be concerned about.  

I agree and I wanted us to go get him. I’ve since come to accept that in season moves like that is probably a win-now move - we’re not there yet. 
 

Still, a 3rd rounder for a 1st round talent who’s actually shown promise. That’s worth considering, win-now or not, right?

[richard pallo]

22 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

For sure with Sweat and Young.  BTW, Sweat’s heart condition was misdiagnosed.  We also could have gone after Williams, but I can understand not doing that.

 

What I really wanted to see was Ballard making a run for Brian Burns.  He most likely will be moving on next season.  
 

And I’m not talking about what they could do for us this season, I’m taking the long haul.  Or we can keep drafting them and hope one turns out…. Kwity, Dayo, Lewis, all good players.  None of them great.  

 

I read an article recently saying Burns is going to get the franchise tag if not signed.

[MikeCurtis]

3 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

 

What I really wanted to see was Ballard making a run for Brian Burns.  He most likely will be moving on next season.  
 

And I’m not talking about what they could do for us this season, I’m taking the long haul.  Or we can keep drafting them and hope one turns out…. Kwity, Dayo, Lewis, all good players.  None of them great.  

 

Its reported Burns turned down a contract for 23M per year from Panthers

 

Its reported that he is seeking 27-28M per year

 

He has 5 sacks this year so far. He had one year at 12.5 sacks in 2022

 

He has been less than 10 sacks in 3 (and will probably be less than 10 this year)

 

So, if it plays out this year (as it appears), he will have less than 10 sacks for 4 out of his 5 years.......

 

Not for the price he is going to want, and also what Carolina would want in trade

 

I am very unclear why we didnt take a stab at Chase Young - A third round pick would seem like a CHEAP investment

 

I am also starting to think that the Colts want DEs that can hold the edge and put at least SOME pressure.

 

IMHO

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

For sure with Sweat and Young.  BTW, Sweat’s heart condition was misdiagnosed.  We also could have gone after Williams, but I can understand not doing that.

 

What I really wanted to see was Ballard making a run for Brian Burns.  He most likely will be moving on next season.  
 

And I’m not talking about what they could do for us this season, I’m taking the long haul.  Or we can keep drafting them and hope one turns out…. Kwity, Dayo, Lewis, all good players.  None of them great.  

 

Sweat’s heart condition was misdiagnosed according to a doctor hired by Sweat’s own agent.   That proves nothing.   There’s a reason why Sweats, a projected top-10/12 pick fell all the way to pick 26.   NFL Team doctors couldn’t trust what they were seeing.  
 

If a player with a condition gets drafted and something goes wrong the two people who get sued are the owner and team doctor.   Nobody wants that.  
 

As for the trade deadline.   Deals done at the trade line only return pennies on the dollar in most deals.   So at this trade deadline, there were 15 total deals.  10 were the following:  one team gives a player and a 7 in exchange for a 6.   That’s pennies on the dollar.  
 

There were 5 deals involving Day 2 picks.   4 of them involve teams trying to make a deep run in the playoffs like SF trading for Young.   Only one team with a losing record made a big trade.  Chicago trading for Sweats.   Just as Chicago did a year ago when they traded for WR Chase Claypool.   That cost Chicago the 33 pick in the 2023 draft.  That didn’t seem to work out too well.
 

Bottom line:  Trading at the deadline when you’re not looking to make a deep playoff run rarely pays off.   The best time to make a trade for the most value is March and April leading up to the draft.  That’s when you get the most value. 

[Smonroe]

13 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Sweat’s heart condition was misdiagnosed according to a doctor hired by Sweat’s own agent.   That proves nothing.   There’s a reason why Sweats, a projected top-10/12 pick fell all the way to pick 26.   NFL Team doctors couldn’t trust what they were seeing.  
 

If a player with a condition gets drafted and something goes wrong the two people who get sued are the owner and team doctor.   Nobody wants that.  
 

As for the trade deadline.   Deals done at the trade line only return pennies on the dollar in most deals.   So at this trade deadline, there were 15 total deals.  10 were the following:  one team gives a player and a 7 in exchange for a 6.   That’s pennies on the dollar.  
 

There were 5 deals involving Day 2 picks.   4 of them involve teams trying to make a deep run in the playoffs like SF trading for Young.   Only one team with a losing record made a big trade.  Chicago trading for Sweats.   Just as Chicago did a year ago when they traded for WR Chase Claypool.   That cost Chicago the 33 pick in the 2023 draft.  That didn’t seem to work out too well.
 

Bottom line:  Trading at the deadline when you’re not looking to make a deep playoff run rarely pays off.   The best time to make a trade for the most value is March and April leading up to the draft.  That’s when you get the most value. 

Of course the players agent is going to get a second opinion.  That doesn’t make it false. If you’re interested, this article explains it well. https://www.theinjurysource.com/post/montezsweat#:~:text=Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a,is also pronounced “hocum”.
 

Getting back to Ballard, IMHO you get a needed player when they’re available.  You want to improve your team, no matter when.  I think we have the QB and LT.  I don’t think any would say we have the elite edge.  
 

@MikeCurtis I think an elite edge is worth the price.  Just MHO, but put Young or Burns next to Buck and Grove, with Kwity setting the edge…scary!

[NewColtsFan]

3 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

Of course the players agent is going to get a second opinion.  That doesn’t make it false. If you’re interested, this article explains it well. https://www.theinjurysource.com/post/montezsweat#:~:text=Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a,is also pronounced “hocum”.
 

Getting back to Ballard, IMHO you get a needed player when they’re available.  You want to improve your team, no matter when.  I think we have the QB and LT.  I don’t think any would say we have the elite edge.  
 

@MikeCurtis I think an elite edge is worth the price.  Just MHO, but put Young or Burns next to Buck and Grove, with Kwity setting the edge…scary!

I don’t think it’s a good idea to trade a premium pick for a veteran player at the trade deadline.  I’d rather try to draft that player.   But maybe that’s just me.   
 

Once the Colts passed on Sweats in 2019, I don’t think they’d do a 180 and trade for him in 2023.    Their medical opinion is not going to change.  
 

As for Burns, Carolina may not be able to retain him,  but they COULD use a tag on him.   I think the Panthers think they might be able to get more for him in March or April when there is the most value available.  

As for the article….   What’s important to me, is how the NFL responded in real time.  Sweats was a top 10/12 player.  And he fell all the way to pick 26 even though he played a premium position.  I think it’s the most revealing.   And I’m not surprised that the team willing to draft him was Washington — not a well run team. 

[MikeCurtis]

37 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

@MikeCurtis I think an elite edge is worth the price.  Just MHO, but put Young or Burns next to Buck and Grove, with Kwity setting the edge…scary!

I 100% agree

 

I just don’t see Burns as Elite.  Good.  But not elite

[John Waylon]

I don’t want to make my own list 1-32, but I feel like Ballard in the middle is totally fair. He’s an average GM. Yes, it could be worse. It could also be better. 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Smonroe said:

Of course the players agent is going to get a second opinion.  That doesn’t make it false. If you’re interested, this article explains it well. https://www.theinjurysource.com/post/montezsweat#:~:text=Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a,is also pronounced “hocum”.
 

Getting back to Ballard, IMHO you get a needed player when they’re available.  You want to improve your team, no matter when.  I think we have the QB and LT.  I don’t think any would say we have the elite edge.  
 

@MikeCurtis I think an elite edge is worth the price.  Just MHO, but put Young or Burns next to Buck and Grove, with Kwity setting the edge…scary!

Just wanted to say thanks for the article about the heart condition.    I just had a chance to look at it.    I find science fascinating but confusing, a lot of this doesn’t stick with me.  But I think I have the basics here.   Appreciate it.   

[AwesomeAustin]

I agree with Ballard being in the middle of the pack. This roster has been the definition of average for a few years now. There are a few guys ranked I don’t quite understand why they were out in their slot…mainly Patriots way too high, Dolphins way too low and I would put the Ravens GM in the top tier as well. 

[OLD FAN MAN]

I thought nick caserio would be the leader of tier one, in 2 years he has brought the texans from last in our division to fight the jags for first in our division . he has done it with with smart trades , smarter drafting and free agents and cap management . he will probably be gm of the year

[OLD FAN MAN]

tier one gms dont limit roster building to just the draft, they use all avenues to build a winning roster

[AwesomeAustin]

10 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

I thought nick caserio would be the leader of tier one, in 2 years he has brought the texans from last in our division to fight the jags for first in our division . he has done it with with smart trades , smarter drafting and free agents and cap management . he will probably be gm of the year

I almost said he was ranked too low. Not sure if he is tier 1 yet but the future is looking great. Interested to see what they do they next couple offseasons. 

[Superman]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Jerry Jones?    Top tier?    Really?   I don’t think he’s as bad as some make him out to be, but top tier?    Not for me.  

 

I agree on Belichick. He puts together his kind of roster in a way that no one can, but I think he has some blind spots.

 

But Jerry Jones... the Cowboys always have a talented roster, with depth. They always have top tier WR, good OL, good pass rushers, corners, usually a star linebacker... They keep their best players for the most part, and are generally in good cap shape. They're active in FA, but not reckless. What I think holds them back is the coaching staff, but it doesn't look like coaching hires are part of the analysis. 

[superrep1967]

6 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

So, what are you going to do when the Colts are on a bye?  Be a rabble rouser!  I rouse rabble!  Rouse rouse rouse!

 

This week, PFF did a ranking of general managers.  And, hey presto, Chris Ballard was not in their highest ranking.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-general-manager-rankings-2023-eagles-howie-roseman-chiefs-brett-veach

 

They made their determinations based on:

1. Draft pick production compared to expectation
2. Positional value consideration
3. Draft trade value
4. Free-agent signing value compared to expectation
5. Early extensions

 

Their commentary on Ballard:

 

"The Colts' roster in recent years has resembled a Whac-A-Mole board, where one glaring deficiency has been able to tank what is otherwise a team with talented trench units. For 2023, the secondary is devoid of building-block talent outside of second-round rookie Julius Brents, but the offensive line is seemingly back playing to its talent level after atrophying in 2022. With a lot of positives on display from rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who we won’t see again until 2024 due to injury, there’s reason to believe maybe Ballard can build a true contender for the first time since the end of the Andrew Luck era.

Ballard’s best move in a while appears to be the hiring of head coach Shane Steichen, and there should be optimism going forward. Ballard may need to supplement this roster with more free-agent talent than he’s been willing to target in the past, but that’s how you take advantage of the rookie contract window — in moderation, of course."

 

Ranking:

TIER 1: CLEAR VISION, SOUND PROCESS, BALANCE OF SHORT- AND LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES

Howie Roseman, Eagles

Brett Veach, Chiefs

Duke Tobin, Bengals

Jerry Jones, Cowboys

Bill Belichick, Patriots

TIER 2: CLEAR VISION, MOSTLY SOUND PROCESS, SOMETIMES FOCUSED ON “WINDOWS”

Brandon Beane, Bills

John Schneider, Seahawks

John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan, 49'ers

Eric DeCosta, Ravens

Brad Holmes, Lions

Jason Licht, Buccaneers

Les Snead, Rams

Brian Gutekunst, Packers

Chris Ballard, Colts

Joe Douglas, Jets

Andrew Berry, Browns

TIER 3: QUESTIONABLE PROCESS, VARYING RESULTS

Micky Loomis, Saints

Chris Grier, Dolphins

Terry Fontenot, Falcons

Tom Telesco, Chargers

Trent Baalke, Jaguars

Nick Caserio, Texans

George Paton, Broncos

Ron Rivera/Martin Mayhew, Commanders

Scott Fitterer, Panthers

TOO NEW

Omar Khan, Steelers

Monti Ossenfort, Cardinals

Ryan Poles, Bears

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Vikings

Joe Schoen, Giants

Ran Carthon, Titans

Champ Kelly, Raiders

I think John Lynch should be in tier 1 in my opinion. Their team is loaded with talent and they are winning 7-3. I don’t think Jerry Jones should be up there yeah there winning this year but how long has he been in that position and what have they won? 

[superrep1967]

3 hours ago, John Waylon said:

I don’t want to make my own list 1-32, but I feel like Ballard in the middle is totally fair. He’s an average GM. Yes, it could be worse. It could also be better. 

That is totally fair. 

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, superrep1967 said:

I think John Lynch should be in tier 1 in my opinion. Their team is loaded with talent and they are winning 7-3. I don’t think Jerry Jones should be up there yeah there winning this year but how long has he been in that position and what have they won? 

 

Subjectively, I think that's a fair conclusion. This analysis gives a lot of weight to the production of draft picks and FAs, and when you trade three first rounders for Trey Lance, that leaves a dent. The Niners also have a fair number of misses in the draft over the years. What saves them is that they hit on a lot of stars at other positions, and of course now, Brock Purdy. 

[AwesomeAustin]

21 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Subjectively, I think that's a fair conclusion. This analysis gives a lot of weight to the production of draft picks and FAs, and when you trade three first rounders for Trey Lance, that leaves a dent. The Niners also have a fair number of misses in the draft over the years. What saves them is that they hit on a lot of stars at other positions, and of course now, Brock Purdy. 

Was about to say this. They have pivoted nicely off that disaster trade up for Trey Lance. The missed trade definitely should count against Lynch. At the same time they have remained SB contenders when a failed trade like that usually sets a franchise back 5-7 years. That should also count. I give major props to that organization for taking a swing at the most important position when most teams would have rode their slightly above average QB nowhere.  To me a 2nd tier QB is no man’s land. Dallas, Raiders and Saint with Carr, Seahawks, Steelers and Titans with Tannehil. All examples of teams that are/were good but we all know it’s highly unlikely they will go far in the playoffs. Interested to see how Purdy keeps playing, he looks really good but is it the system, the player or both?  

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Interested to see how Purdy keeps playing, he looks really good but is it the system, the player or both?  

 

It could be both. We know the system is sound, just watch how often they have wide open receivers in the second level, and how productive the run game is.

 

But Purdy excels at second level throws, he's poised in the pocket (and this is a huge deal, just watching other teams, so many QBs don't know what to do when pressured), he can hit deep balls (one of the most efficient deep throwers this season), etc. He's checking a lot of the boxes, and passing tests that other QBs fail every week. He's doing things that Jimmy G never could get a handle on. 

[AwesomeAustin]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

It could be both. We know the system is sound, just watch how often they have wide open receivers in the second level, and how productive the run game is.

 

But Purdy excels at second level throws, he's poised in the pocket (and this is a huge deal, just watching other teams, so many QBs don't know what to do when pressured), he can hit deep balls (one of the most efficient deep throwers this season), etc. He's checking a lot of the boxes, and passing tests that other QBs fail every week. He's doing things that Jimmy G never could get a handle on. 

I agree with everything you just said. I will admit that my only hesitation with him is he was Mr Irrelevant. That is completely unfair but for some reason I keep waiting for him to come back down to earth. I hope he doesn’t bc what he is doing is incredible. One of the best stories in the NFL in my eyes

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I agree with everything you just said. I will admit that my only hesitation with him is he was Mr Irrelevant. That is completely unfair but for some reason I keep waiting for him to come back down to earth. I hope he doesn’t bc what he is doing is incredible. One of the best stories in the NFL in my eyes

 

Jared Goff was the #1 pick, he got going in Year 2 with McVay, but he eventually came down to earth and McVay moved on. Goff now plays with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder, and the way the Lions came back against the Bears today after three completely terrible picks by Goff is a testament to their toughness. Goff shrugged it off and kept trying to make plays, and a few years ago, I think he might have gone into a shell and it would have been over for him.

 

Wentz got picked #2, was an MVP candidate, and he eventually came back down to earth. There are lots of examples of this.

 

I think it's really hard to have sustained success at QB, whether you're a high draft pick, or Mr. Irrelevant. I think Purdy is already doing things that high picks like Trubisky, Wilson, Jones, etc., were never able to do. I'm not trying to be sensational, but Year 2 Brock Purdy looks better than Year 2 Trevor Lawrence, who has been considered the QB Messiah since high school. So even if Purdy does fall off, I don't think it's about anything other than the fact that it's really hard to play QB in the NFL.

 

I will say, I think pocket poise and accuracy are two of the most important traits for a QB, and there's an innate quality to both of them. Yet those are two areas where Purdy excels.

[Happy2BeHere]

In many years…I’ve come to expect jack Jack Squat from Ballard during free agency. They shouldn’t even call it that..should be ridiculous cost agency.

[Happy2BeHere]

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Jared Goff was the #1 pick, he got going in Year 2 with McVay, but he eventually came down to earth and McVay moved on. Goff now plays with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder, and the way the Lions came back against the Bears today after three completely terrible picks by Goff is a testament to their toughness. Goff shrugged it off and kept trying to make plays, and a few years ago, I think he might have gone into a shell and it would have been over for him.

 

Wentz got picked #2, was an MVP candidate, and he eventually came back down to earth. There are lots of examples of this.

 

I think it's really hard to have sustained success at QB, whether you're a high draft pick, or Mr. Irrelevant. I think Purdy is already doing things that high picks like Trubisky, Wilson, Jones, etc., were never able to do. I'm not trying to be sensational, but Year 2 Brock Purdy looks better than Year 2 Trevor Lawrence, who has been considered the QB Messiah since high school. So even if Purdy does fall off, I don't think it's about anything other than the fact that it's really hard to play QB in the NFL.

 

I will say, I think pocket poise and accuracy are two of the most important traits for a QB, and there's an innate quality to both of them. Yet those are two areas where Purdy excels.

Purdy may very well be the steal of a lifetime…not many QB’s picked on the last day let alone the last pick of the last day and be the next Tom Brady…

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I agree on Belichick. He puts together his kind of roster in a way that no one can, but I think he has some blind spots.

 

But Jerry Jones... the Cowboys always have a talented roster, with depth. They always have top tier WR, good OL, good pass rushers, corners, usually a star linebacker... They keep their best players for the most part, and are generally in good cap shape. They're active in FA, but not reckless. What I think holds them back is the coaching staff, but it doesn't look like coaching hires are part of the analysis. 

You make a fair argument.   
 

But here’s the thing for me.   Would it have been an insult if Jones were 6th or 7th?  Would you have shocked if he wasn’t top-5?

 

I know all teams play with the same salary cap,  but I believe there are advantages to being a big market team vs a small market team.   And Dallas is the biggest of the big market teams.   Isn’t Jones the richest owner?   Aren’t there considerable advantages for him? 
 

Im not trying to conflate two issues….   Salary cap and franchise value, but I think there’s some connectedness there.  Jones can make a mistake in any area of his football business more easily than Irsay can.   Joneses pockets are considerably deeper.   I think it makes his GM job much easier.  

 

Again, I think he does a good job.  I think he makes for an easy target.  I just didn’t expect to see him as top-5,  so I don’t think it’s an insult.   At least it’s not intended as one.   

[twfish]

This coming offseason will likely make me of break me on Ballard. If there was ever a year for him to go all in on free agency it’s going to be this coming year. We have a 2nd year QB and a team that should be able to get fixed enough in this free agency and draft to bring us back to serious contenders. If we sit back and solely rely on the draft I’ll be very disheartened. I’m not holding my breath and usually don’t look to free agency to build a team but I feel like this roster has the talent, just missing some pieces.

[chad72]

Tier 1, Tier 2, who cares??? Give us a roster worthy of a division title, we can then have a conversation if he’s top tier. Right now, middle of the road GM steering a middle of the road team is all I see.

[Solid84]

7 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I agree on Belichick. He puts together his kind of roster in a way that no one can, but I think he has some blind spots.

 

But Jerry Jones... the Cowboys always have a talented roster, with depth. They always have top tier WR, good OL, good pass rushers, corners, usually a star linebacker... They keep their best players for the most part, and are generally in good cap shape. They're active in FA, but not reckless. What I think holds them back is the coaching staff, but it doesn't look like coaching hires are part of the analysis. 

I guess my opinion of Jones is influenced by how he handles coaches and coaching. That’s not part of this evaluation and ranking it seems, so it’s probably natural he’s ranked higher here than I would have put him. 

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, chad72 said:

Tier 1, Tier 2, who cares??? Give us a roster worthy of a division title, we can then have a conversation if he’s top tier. Right now, middle of the road GM steering a middle of the road team is all I see.

 

What were you expecting this year?   
 

 

[Yoshinator]

9 hours ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

I thought nick caserio would be the leader of tier one, in 2 years he has brought the texans from last in our division to fight the jags for first in our division . he has done it with with smart trades , smarter drafting and free agents and cap management . he will probably be gm of the year

Agreed. I'd switch him and Belichick's rankings. Caserio has built a good roster from nothing and we have enough info on Stroud where we can agree that he's a hit in some way. That team needs a bit of work on defense still, but it's a respectable enough team that can win the division as early as this year and try to make a playoff run. Caserio already got himself a franchise QB along with a good team in a few years, and in year 1, he had no pick in the first two rounds. That's a great GM.

[Yoshinator]

9 hours ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

tier one gms dont limit roster building to just the draft, they use all avenues to build a winning roster

Yep. I actually have Veach at 1 and Roseman at 2. Veach is just insane in the way where he hits in the bottom end of the draft every year. He finds sleepers on days 2 and 3, signs high price FAs that hit, rotates the roster very well every year, and is decent at trades. 

 

Veach is basically Chris Ballard on steroids. He took over a few months after Mahomes was drafted, but he was instrumental in discovering Mahomes for the Chiefs according to Andy Reid. Roseman is great as well. Drafted Hurts, got rid of Wentz at the right time, traded for a team around Hurts and drafted very well. Also solid in FA and isn't afraid to spend. Both get elite players and supplement their QBs with an elite roster.