AR vs Young vs Stroud vs Levis

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

I believe that. I really do think that by the time of the draft, we had made up our minds that Richardson was the guy. 

 

Yeah, it's not shocking that Chris "RAS King" Ballard was out on Bryce Young, and in on Anthony Richardson. 

 

6 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

I've noticed JT still as of this month believes Young is top level talent. 

 

He sure does. And it probably flavors his analysis of the Panthers offensive scheme, but it's hard to see where he's wrong about their offense... it's dreadful.

 

And I think Young has a lot of talent and ability. I just don't know if he can overcome his limitations. And if he does, it will have to be with some complementary scheme.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Bryce Young is also not the first highly rated QB with question marks who declined to participate in parts of the evaluation. He won't be the last.

Tall Manning like statues aren't going to test, because physical attributes were not really part of his game...other than height being an important metric for a pocket passer. But Young is the only prospect I can remember that has had a clear physical anomaly to where there wasn't any superior physical attribute to offset it.   Just from memory, Russell Wilson clearly displayed a strong arm and so did Baker Mayfield (who also actually tested at 59mph).  I don't think Luck tested at all, but we already knew he was 6'4 220 something and played like it in college.  And since he was 6.4, his athleticism wasn't as critical as it is for Young.

 

Having said this, I don't know that Young's arm strength/talent, 3 cone abilities, or foot speed are the issues that are causing him problems at the NFL level. 

 

I just seemed that the folks that had him ranked #1 didn't want any questions to interfere with their rankings and just took some things for granted...just unthorough due diligence IMO....in a pool that had 3 other very good college prospects ranked closely.  Each of whom did some material testing. (which begs a question, why did they feel they had to test?...because they already figured Young was going number 1 that early?)

 

As a side note, the best comparison I can make with Bryce Young's pre draft process is.....Johnny Manziel.  Young had moxy, on field leadership, and made athletic out of structure plays, and Johnny Manziel was drafted on that basis too. (not comparing mental make up here or exact draft position).  There was some groupthink mentality going on with Manziel too, IMO, but he had more detractors over his personality.

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Tall Manning like statues aren't going to test, because physical attributes were not really part of his game...other than height being an important metric for a pocket passer. But Young is the only prospect I can remember that has had a clear physical anomaly to where there wasn't any superior physical attribute to offset it.   Just from memory, Russell Wilson clearly displayed a strong arm and so did Baker Mayfield (who also actually tested at 59mph).  I don't think Luck tested at all, but we already knew he was 6'4 220 something and played like it in college.  And since he was 6.4, his athleticism wasn't as critical as it is for Young.

 

Having said this, I don't know that Young's arm strength/talent, 3 cone abilities, or foot speed are the issues that are causing him problems at the NFL level. 

 

I just seemed that the folks that had him ranked #1 didn't want any questions to interfere with their rankings and just took some things for granted...just unthorough due diligence IMO....in a pool that had 3 other very good college prospects ranked closely.

 

As a side note, the best comparison I can make with Bryce Young's pre draft process is.....Johnny Manziel.  Young had moxy, on field leadership, and made athletic out of structure plays, and Johnny Manziel was drafted on that basis too. (not comparing mental make up here or exact draft position).  There was some groupthink mentality going on with Manziel too, IMO, but he had more detractors over his personality.

 

I guess you're only talking about quantifiable testing, not including passing drills, right? So throwing velocity, 40 yard dash, etc. Because he did throw at his pro day, just like a lot of QB prospects. 

 

(Side note: I think the velocity test is very limited in value. I don't know how important it is how hard you throw with no pass rush. I want to know if you can power the ball from a muddy pocket, or on the run. Pretty much every QB prospect can light up the gun.)

 

As for the value of that kind of testing, my pushback is just that all of that was obvious on tape. No one was talking about Young's arm strength, or his ability to outrun defenders. His strengths are accuracy, anticipation, processing... just like Tua, who also doesn't have prototypical size or arm strength, and isn't outstandingly athletic. And Tua was considered a lock for the #1 pick until Joe Burrow happened, and Tua got hurt. 

 

I don't think the bolded is a factor. I don't think anyone ignored his deficiencies. I think the people who liked Young were in love with his strengths, and felt like they were good enough to make up for his obvious physical deficiencies. So far, I don't think Young's physical deficiencies are holding him back, I think a mix of scheme and supporting cast are preventing him from displaying any of his strengths.

 

You brought up Baker Mayfield, who was very accurate in college, played hard, won a Heisman, and went #1. You also brought up Johnny Manziel -- the lazy comparison for Baker Mayfield -- who wasn't that accurate, was kind of a knucklehead, and went in the 20s. Out of the two of them, Mayfield is the far better comparison for Young. 

[DougDew]

27 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I guess you're only talking about quantifiable testing, not including passing drills, right? So throwing velocity, 40 yard dash, etc. Because he did throw at his pro day, just like a lot of QB prospects. 

 

(Side note: I think the velocity test is very limited in value. I don't know how important it is how hard you throw with no pass rush. I want to know if you can power the ball from a muddy pocket, or on the run. Pretty much every QB prospect can light up the gun.)

 

As for the value of that kind of testing, my pushback is just that all of that was obvious on tape. No one was talking about Young's arm strength, or his ability to outrun defenders. His strengths are accuracy, anticipation, processing... just like Tua, who also doesn't have prototypical size or arm strength, and isn't outstandingly athletic. And Tua was considered a lock for the #1 pick until Joe Burrow happened, and Tua got hurt. 

 

I don't think the bolded is a factor. I don't think anyone ignored his deficiencies. I think the people who liked Young were in love with his strengths, and felt like they were good enough to make up for his obvious physical deficiencies. So far, I don't think Young's physical deficiencies are holding him back, I think a mix of scheme and supporting cast are preventing him from displaying any of his strengths.

 

You brought up Baker Mayfield, who was very accurate in college, played hard, won a Heisman, and went #1. You also brought up Johnny Manziel -- the lazy comparison for Baker Mayfield -- who wasn't that accurate, was kind of a knucklehead, and went in the 20s. Out of the two of them, Mayfield is the far better comparison for Young. 

Your own evaluation of Young noted that he did not have elite arm talent or distinguishing footspeed or agility.  The lack of elite arm talent that I question about Young originated from your write up last spring.  I would think that others who get paid to review tape would see the same things you did, and that it would be tough for anybody to rank Young as the number 1 prospect without having him go through the full series of tests, no matter how much they spoke directly to what they saw on tape.  I mean, if he threw a 53 mph throw and ran a 4.8, they would go back and look at the tape.  They didn't even ask, apparently.

 

Manziel was a knucklehead, and many knew that.  But the fact that he was talked about in the first round had everything to do with how he made plays on the field and little to do with any standardized metric.  Polian said that Manziel was a top ten pick simply because what he showed that he could do in college.  He described it as "just having that magic ability".  That was pretty much how they looked at Young, IMO, and Young is probably even quite a bit smaller than Manziel.

 

If a big part of the QBs game is to escape, extend plays, etc., shouldn't you gather as many numbers as you could simply as a base line to help you understand what you're watching on tape?

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Your own evaluation of Young noted that he did not have elite arm talent or apparent footspeed or agility.  The lack of elite arm talent that I question about Young originated from your write up last spring.  I would think that others who get paid to review tape would see the same things you did, and that it would be tough for anybody to rank Young as the number 1 prospect without having him go through the full series of tests, no matter how much they spoke directly to what they saw on tape.  I mean, if he threw a 53 mph throw and ran a 4.8, they would go back and look at the tape.  They didn't even ask, apparently.

 

Manziel was a knucklehead, and many knew that.  But the fact that he was talked about in the first round had everything to do with how he made plays on the field and little to do with any standardized metric.  Polian said that Manziel was a top ten pick because simply because what he showed that he could do in college.  That was pretty much how they looked at Young, IMO, and Young is probably even quite a bit smaller than Manziel.

 

For me, unless Young threw in the 60s and ran a 4.4 forty, it wouldn't change my opinion about his arm strength and speed. And even then, I'm now scouring his tape to find evidence of that throwing ability and athleticism in a game, because again, I don't really care how hard you throw in a controlled environment. I think if he throw 53 and ran 4.8, the people who liked him would still like him just as much, because what they liked about him wasn't connected to his arm strength or his speed.

 

On Manziel, what I'm saying is that Bryce Young has strengths that Manziel did not, and Manziel has question marks that Young did not. I know some people thought highly of him, but he was always a questionable prospect for reasons other than his size, athleticism, and arm strength. And those are really the only things he has in common with Bryce Young. 

 

To the bolded, you're having trouble accepting that anyone could have a different opinion or reach a different conclusion than you on this topic, and I don't think anyone can help you with that. I'll just say that people have different opinions about virtually every NFL prospect, and the fact that people liked Bryce Young isn't evidence that they conspired to ignore critical parts of the evaluation process. 

 

I also think you're underselling how many people had questions about Bryce Young before the draft. Or maybe you're focused on the big brands like NFL.com and ESPN. I read and watch a lot of other outlets during draft season. For example, B/R had Young as their #3 QB, behind Stroud and Richardson. The 33rd Team went Levis, Young, Stroud, Hooker, Richardson. Warren Sharp had him #2, behind Stroud, so did The Ringer. 

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

For me, unless Young threw in the 60s and ran a 4.4 forty, it wouldn't change my opinion about his arm strength and speed. And even then, I'm now scouring his tape to find evidence of that throwing ability and athleticism in a game, because again, I don't really care how hard you throw in a controlled environment. I think if he throw 53 and ran 4.8, the people who liked him would still like him just as much, because what they liked about him wasn't connected to his arm strength or his speed.

 

On Manziel, what I'm saying is that Bryce Young has strengths that Manziel did not, and Manziel has question marks that Young did not. I know some people thought highly of him, but he was always a questionable prospect for reasons other than his size, athleticism, and arm strength. And those are really the only things he has in common with Bryce Young. 

 

To the bolded, you're having trouble accepting that anyone could have a different opinion or reach a different conclusion than you on this topic, and I don't think anyone can help you with that. I'll just say that people have different opinions about virtually every NFL prospect, and the fact that people liked Bryce Young isn't evidence that they conspired to ignore critical parts of the evaluation process. 

 

I also think you're underselling how many people had questions about Bryce Young before the draft. Or maybe you're focused on the big brands like NFL.com and ESPN. I read and watch a lot of other outlets during draft season. For example, B/R had Young as their #3 QB, behind Stroud and Richardson. The 33rd Team went Levis, Young, Stroud, Hooker, Richardson. Warren Sharp had him #2, behind Stroud, so did The Ringer. 

I edited my post as you were writing and asked this simple question.

 

If a big part of the QBs game is to escape, extend plays, etc., shouldn't you gather as many numbers as you could simply as a base line to help you understand what you're watching on tape?

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I edited my post as you were writing and asked this simple question.

 

If a big part of the QBs game is to escape, extend plays, etc., shouldn't you gather as many numbers as you could simply as a base line to help you understand what you're watching on tape?

 

Sure, but in the absence of that supplementary info, you still have a decision to make.

 

Also, it's not like Bryce Young was playing in the MAC, against average level athletes. He won a Heisman in the SEC, playing against NFL caliber Georgia defenders. It's not hard to understand what was on the tape.

 

And again, I think the tape was clear, and coincides with what we've seen so far in the NFL. I don't think anyone watched the tape and felt like Bryce Young had an outstanding arm, or was an outstanding athlete.

[DougDew]

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Sure, but in the absence of that supplementary info, you still have a decision to make.

 

Also, it's not like Bryce Young was playing in the MAC, against average level athletes. He won a Heisman in the SEC, playing against NFL caliber Georgia defenders. It's not hard to understand what was on the tape.

 

And again, I think the tape was clear, and coincides with what we've seen so far in the NFL. I don't think anyone watched the tape and felt like Bryce Young had an outstanding arm, or was an outstanding athlete.

I don't disagree with making an assessment on tape, and that its the biggest part, but the testing exists for a reason.  Every college QB has tape to watch.  Why test anybody.  The lower round QBs (generally) have to test, but not some guys where the investment is huge.  Seems backwards to me, so no, I don't accept those teams' opinion as being a very good one.  

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't disagree with making an assessment on tape, and that its the biggest part, but the testing exists for a reason.  Every college QB has tape to watch.  Why test anybody.  The lower round QBs (generally) have to test, but not some guys where the investment is huge.  Seems backwards to me, so no, I don't accept those teams' opinion as being a very good one.  

 

I don't know how the bolded is relevant.

 

What would you have teams do? If a QB declines to test, refuse to draft him? And do the pundits have a role in this? By the way, I think the reason a lot of this testing exists is because fans and media really like it. Like I said earlier, there's very limited value in some of the testing.

 

I think the point you're dismissing is that the people who made their mind up about Bryce Young didn't do so on the basis of his arm strength or his speed. I don't think his testing would have moved the needle, unless it was significantly different from what people expected it to be. That's true of people who loved him, and it's true of people who thought he would have problems. 

[DougDew]

12 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know how the bolded is relevant.

 

What would you have teams do? If a QB declines to test, refuse to draft him? And do the pundits have a role in this? By the way, I think the reason a lot of this testing exists is because fans and media really like it. Like I said earlier, there's very limited value in some of the testing.

 

I think the point you're dismissing is that the people who made their mind up about Bryce Young didn't do so on the basis of his arm strength or his speed. I don't think his testing would have moved the needle, unless it was significantly different from what people expected it to be. That's true of people who loved him, and it's true of people who thought he would have problems. 

I think they made their decisions about his escapability, play extension ability, throwing with velocity on the move without having baseline numbers as a reference point.  Seems casual and lazy to me, especially if they didn't even ask him to...to at least put him on the spot to make him refuse.  I don't think the question even came up. 

 

For one reason I think that, refusing to test would sort of work counter to the story that he had near-perfect character.  So if he actually refused, I don't think it was reported....at least widely.

 

[Boondoggle]

19 hours ago, Nate! said:

They traded their first to get Young.  They are riding Young at least another year

Yeah that is beyond painful.  Can you imagine sitting through that first round of the draft being them.

 

What I don't get is how the GM kept his job.  If Tepper had half a brain he would have cleaned house and let it be known he wants a top GM who can help him get that organization going in the right direction.  The guy is completely clueless.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Tall Manning like statues aren't going to test, because physical attributes were not really part of his game...other than height being an important metric for a pocket passer. But Young is the only prospect I can remember that has had a clear physical anomaly to where there wasn't any superior physical attribute to offset it.   Just from memory, Russell Wilson clearly displayed a strong arm and so did Baker Mayfield (who also actually tested at 59mph).  I don't think Luck tested at all, but we already knew he was 6'4 220 something and played like it in college.  And since he was 6.4, his athleticism wasn't as critical as it is for Young.

 

Having said this, I don't know that Young's arm strength/talent, 3 cone abilities, or foot speed are the issues that are causing him problems at the NFL level. 

 

I just seemed that the folks that had him ranked #1 didn't want any questions to interfere with their rankings and just took some things for granted...just unthorough due diligence IMO....in a pool that had 3 other very good college prospects ranked closely.  Each of whom did some material testing. (which begs a question, why did they feel they had to test?...because they already figured Young was going number 1 that early?)

 

As a side note, the best comparison I can make with Bryce Young's pre draft process is.....Johnny Manziel.  Young had moxy, on field leadership, and made athletic out of structure plays, and Johnny Manziel was drafted on that basis too. (not comparing mental make up here or exact draft position).  There was some groupthink mentality going on with Manziel too, IMO, but he had more detractors over his personality.

Sorry to interrupt….   I’m going to touch on a separate topic hoping it will help you in the future.   I’m totally sincere here. 
 

Almost every NFL player has a wiki page.  Even players who didn’t get invited to the combine.  Even players who went to the combine, but didn’t get drafted.  Theres about 75 of those players every year. 
 

Anyway, all NFL players wind up making a Wikipedia page, and those pages include their combine results.   You mentioned Luck didn’t work out.   Turns out, he did.  And his combine results are on his wiki page.   Click on it and go to the section that’s typically labeled professional.   It’s after sections called early life and college.  
 

So in his professional section, you can easily scroll down and find the players combine results.   You’ll see that Luck tested through the roof.  Better than most expected.  All of his combine marks are there.  
 

Again, most of the NFL players all of us are talking about today have a wiki page.  Their test results can be found there.  For future discussions, I hope you find this helpful. 

[DougDew]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Sorry to interrupt….   I’m going to touch on a separate topic hoping it will help you in the future.   I’m totally sincere here. 
 

Almost every NFL player has a wiki page.  Even players who didn’t get invited to the combine.  Even players who went to the combine, but didn’t get drafted.  Theres about 75 of those players every year. 
 

Anyway, all NFL players wind up making a Wikipedia page, and those pages include their combine results.   You mentioned Luck didn’t work out.   Turns out, he did.  And his combine results are on his wiki page.   Click on it and go to the section that’s typically labeled professional.   It’s after sections called early life and college.  
 

So in his professional section, you can easily scroll down and find the players combine results.   You’ll see that Luck tested through the roof.  Better than most expected.  All of his combine marks are there.  
 

Again, most of the NFL players all of us are talking about today have a wiki page.  Their test results can be found there.  For future discussions, I hope you find this helpful. 

That's helpful.  I'm sure you know that the mentioning of Luck was an ancillary type of comparison.  I think Luck, like Josh Allen's, physical stature gave enough comfort to feel that what he did in college was not going to be hindered by physical limitations.  I think Young's performances didn't eliminate that concern...beyond height and weight. 

 

And its good to see that Luck's testing cemented him as the number 1 pick.  Since I think there was some direct competition from RGIII, it may have been wise to test...and not decline.  Seems like Young had little competition to be number 1 from a fairly early time frame.  I guess CAR's mind was set pretty early.

[NewColtsFan]

Just now, DougDew said:

That's helpful.  I'm sure you know that the mentioning of Luck was an ancillary type of comparison.  I think Luck, like Josh Allen's, physical stature gave enough comfort to feel that what he did in college was not going to be hindered by physical limitations.  I think Young's performances didn't eliminate that concern...beyond height and weight. 

 

And its good to see that Luck's testing cemented him as the number 1 pick.  Since I think there was some direct competition from RGIII, it may have been wise to test...and not decline.  Seems like Young had little competition to be number 1 from a fairly early time frame.  I guess CAR's mind was set pretty early.

Understood about the Luck mention.  No worries.   
 

As for Young, what he had going for him was being Alabama’s starting quarterback for about two and a half years.   So he had great success in the hardest,  most competitive conference.   And while he didn’t have great physical tools, evaluators felt he had an advanced level of NFL knowledge….  A superior mental game.  
 

If I remember correctly, stories I read said evaluators weren’t really worried about height, but they were concerned about his body holding up to brutal NFL life.  Then he showed up weighing more than anticipated….  204 instead of 194.   Those 10 additional pounds seemed to calm any concerns.  
 

Finally….  On the Young topic,  I wouldn’t call him a bust yet.  (Not that you have)  I always say give a rookie 3 season before passing any judgement.   I almost always root for QBs to succeed.  It’s the hardest position to play in team sports AND the hardest to evaluate.  I hope quarterbacks eventually figure it out.   
 

Sorry if I rambled here….  
 

[Superman]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think they made their decisions about his escapability, play extension ability, throwing with velocity on the move without having baseline numbers as a reference point. 

 

I did the same thing. You've referenced my opinion of his athleticism and throwing ability before. I didn't need to see his testing to form my opinion of those areas of his game, I just watched him play. 

 

Quote

 

Seems casual and lazy to me, especially if they didn't even ask him to...to at least put him on the spot to make him refuse.  I don't think the question even came up. 

 

For one reason I think that, refusing to test would sort of work counter to the story that he had near-perfect character.  So if he actually refused, I don't think it was reported....at least widely.

 

 

So let's say Young does all the testing, and his numbers are unremarkable. He throws in the low 50s, and runs a 4.7 forty. Do you think he falls in the draft?

 

My thinking is that everyone would project him to throw in the high 40s to low 50s, and run in the 4.6-4.7 range, so those results aren't noteworthy. The things that people liked about him aren't measured by the testing that he declined.

[Superman]

15 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Finally….  On the Young topic,  I wouldn’t call him a bust yet.  (Not that you have)  I always say give a rookie 3 season before passing any judgement.   I almost always root for QBs to succeed.  It’s the hardest position to play in team sports AND the hardest to evaluate.  I hope quarterbacks eventually figure it out.   

 

Lawrence and Tua both looked awful as rookies. Got new coaches, and looked like legit NFL QBs in Year 2. Writing off a rookie QB, especially one who is obviously in a bad situation, is a silly thing to do.

[w87r]

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

40 minutes ago, w87r said:

 

 

Take game one away from Levis and I bet it’s a lot lower. I heard today that he hasn’t had 200 yards since the falcons game.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

I did the same thing. You've referenced my opinion of his athleticism and throwing ability before. I didn't need to see his testing to form my opinion of those areas of his game, I just watched him play. 

If you had the numbers at your disposal, would you have looked at them?  If you were doing an evaluation AND paying him $10m dollars, would you want to see traditional testing numbers or ask him to produce some? 

 

Keeping in mind that you're not asking him out on a date or negotiating with a FA.  You have the first pick, its okay if you offend him with the request.

 

1 hour ago, Superman said:

So let's say Young does all the testing, and his numbers are unremarkable. He throws in the low 50s, and runs a 4.7 forty. Do you think he falls in the draft?

 

My thinking is that everyone would project him to throw in the high 40s to low 50s, and run in the 4.6-4.7 range, so those results aren't noteworthy. The things that people liked about him aren't measured by the testing that he declined.

If CAR still owned the first pick in that scenario, the test results wouldn't have mattered since they didn't care in the first place...or other teams that valued him high already.  That's at the heart of the matter, IMO.

 

I can't get off of the idea that in an NFL....and world in general....that seems to value analytics more with more data, that the number 1 guy...and maybe even more QBs in general in this draft (and maybe future drafts?)...are producing sporatic data and the NFL/media seems not to make much of an issue of it.  That doesn't add up to me.

 

You could say that the results of most analytical/data driven process produce results that usually confirm what an experienced person already suspected, so its a wonder why they are so popular in other cases. 

 

[krunk]

I think we beat the Titans again just bc Levis is at QB. As long as Minshew doesn't get wild and start gifting them points and field position.

[krunk]

Game will probably be different though bc I think they will emphasize the run a lot more than in the first matchup

[chad72]

1 minute ago, krunk said:

Game will probably be different though bc I think they will emphasize the run a lot more than in the first matchup

 

Also because Stewart was a big part in us bottling Henry down the first time around. Don't be surprised if Levis is hobbling that they switch to Tannehill in the middle of the game to throw us a curveball.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

30 minutes ago, krunk said:

Game will probably be different though bc I think they will emphasize the run a lot more than in the first matchup

Titans  also didn’t have their best run defender that first game. They will this game. So now they have their guy back and colts don’t have theirs.

[2006Coltsbestever]

39 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Titans  also didn’t have their best run defender that first game. They will this game. So now they have their guy back and colts don’t have theirs.

Only way we lose this game is if we lose the Turnover battle. We have the better team on paper and a better QB. I have us winning by 7. It will be close because most of our games are and it is a division rival on the road.

[Superman]

16 hours ago, DougDew said:

If CAR still owned the first pick in that scenario, the test results wouldn't have mattered since they didn't care in the first place...or other teams that valued him high already.  That's at the heart of the matter, IMO.

 

How about this for a contrast? If I had the first pick and got those test results, they probably wouldn't have mattered because I already had a firm opinion on Young. So yeah, I would have looked at the results, but they would have had to be through the roof just to get me to go back and reevaluate. And I probably still would have fallen back on what the tape showed.

 

Quote

 

I can't get off of the idea that in an NFL....and world in general....that seems to value analytics more with more data, that the number 1 guy...and maybe even more QBs in general in this draft (and maybe future drafts?)...are producing sporatic data and the NFL/media seems not to make much of an issue of it.  That doesn't add up to me.

 

You could say that the results of most analytical/data driven process produce results that usually confirm what an experienced person already suspected, so its a wonder why they are so popular in other cases. 

 

 

If someone started keeping track of the favorite breakfast foods of QB prospects, should each team be expected to value that data equally? 

 

All data is not the same. And from position to position, some data is more valuable than other data. 

 

I understand someone wondering if teams asked Bryce Young to do more testing, or why they didn't. I don't get someone trying to make a conspiracy out of it.

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Only way we lose this game is if we lose the Turnover battle. We have the better team on paper and a better QB. I have us winning by 7. It will be close because most of our games are and it is a division rival on the road.

I hope you’re right, but it’s not hard to forecast Derrick Henry running the ball 30+ times right where Grover Stewart used to be.   He might go for 150+. 
 

I guess I’m saying I’m not nearly as confident as you are.  

[DougDew]

31 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

How about this for a contrast? If I had the first pick and got those test results, they probably wouldn't have mattered because I already had a firm opinion on Young. So yeah, I would have looked at the results, but they would have had to be through the roof just to get me to go back and reevaluate. And I probably still would have fallen back on what the tape showed.

 

 

If someone started keeping track of the favorite breakfast foods of QB prospects, should each team be expected to value that data equally? 

 

All data is not the same. And from position to position, some data is more valuable than other data. 

 

I understand someone wondering if teams asked Bryce Young to do more testing, or why they didn't. I don't get someone trying to make a conspiracy out of it.

Not trying to make a conspiracy out of it.  Just simply trying to understand what seems an omission of due diligence.  Boondoggle called it groupthink.  That seems like the best description for it.  Its in the same ballpark as Jaylon Jones being a Top 100 player by people who get paid to evaluate, then he ends up falling to pick 221, but then plays like a top 100 player. 

 

AFAIK, Young did not complete enough testing to calculate a RAS.  There is enough tape on every other player to evaluate their athleticism, yet testing is performed on them.  If the NFL wants more athleticism in their QBs, you'd think RAS would matter at least some incremental amount.  Sure, for a QB like PM is not really important, because athleticism was never part of the basis for drafting him in the first place.

 

As far as due diligence, I suppose since NFL teams are privately owned there is no fiduciary duty to be a good steward of company capital, like there would be if Tepper was the CEO of a publicly traded company.  But to the extent football teams get the emotional investment from their fan base, and some level of taxpayer support from the municipalities; I do think it's important to document to your fans that you went through an exhaustive analysis of each QB before you decide to draft him (without revealing secrets to the competition).  Tepper doesn't seem to see the need for that, and maybe that partly drives the perception that he sucks as an owner. 

 

We're obviously stuck with simply repeating our positions in different ways.  Good conversation, but I've got nothing more to say.

[2006Coltsbestever]

17 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I hope you’re right, but it’s not hard to forecast Derrick Henry running the ball 30+ times right where Grover Stewart used to be.   He might go for 150+. 
 

I guess I’m saying I’m not nearly as confident as you are.  

We haven't swept them in a while, that is the main that bugs me. They are out to stop that I am sure. Henry is still very good but only has averaged 4.2 yards a carry this year. Moss has averaged 4.8 by comparison and has carried the ball only 30 times less. 

[jvan1973]

21 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I hope you’re right, but it’s not hard to forecast Derrick Henry running the ball 30+ times right where Grover Stewart used to be.   He might go for 150+. 
 

I guess I’m saying I’m not nearly as confident as you are.  

I don't think Henry has more than 20 carries in a game this year

[colts89]

Levis continues to be mid. I hope the Titans keep starting him over picking up a good QB in this year's draft. Would love to see how worse he would look without Derrick Henry.

[csmopar]

47 minutes ago, colts89 said:

Levis continues to be mid. I hope the Titans keep starting him over picking up a good QB in this year's draft. Would love to see how worse he would look without Derrick Henry.

I think Levis’ ceiling is that of a Ryan Tannehill, coincidentally the QB he’s replacing. And after watching him play today, I feel that’s gonna be fair. 

On 12/2/2023 at 9:54 AM, jvan1973 said:

I don't think Henry has more than 20 carries in a game this year

Well he had that in the 1st quarter

[jvan1973]

20 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I think Levis’ ceiling is that of a Ryan Tannehill, coincidentally the QB he’s replacing. And after watching him play today, I feel that’s gonna be fair. 

Well he had that in the 1st quarter

No he didn't

[NFLfan]

1 hour ago, jvan1973 said:

No he didn't

 

Henry had more than 20 carries and over 100 yards in the game. He was responding to you saying before the game that Henry has not had 20 carries in any game.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 hours ago, colts89 said:

Levis continues to be mid. I hope the Titans keep starting him over picking up a good QB in this year's draft. Would love to see how worse he would look without Derrick Henry.

Titans won't take a QB, they just drafted Levis and will roll with him. I am ok with it. To be fair, I don't have enough of a sample size to say Levis will be a bad, average, good, or great pro. So far he is making typical rookie mistakes. To me Stroud has stood out as being good, but it is only year 1. 

[w87r]

7 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

Henry had more than 20 carries and over 100 yards in the game. He was responding to you saying before the game that Henry has not had 20 carries in any game.

 But he said, Henry had that in the 1st quarter, which he didn't.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Titans won't take a QB, they just drafted Levis and will roll with him. I am ok with it. To be fair, I don't have enough of a sample size to say Levis will be a bad, average, good, or great pro. So far he is making typical rookie mistakes. To me Stroud has stood out as being good, but it is only year 1. 

Hopefully titans will win enough games to be out of the MHJ sweepsteaks. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Hopefully titans will win enough games to be out of the MHJ sweepsteaks. 

Yeah, I pray they don't get him. Levis will have a nice luxury there. We can still draft a WR like Nabors or Odunze though and either of those guys may be just as great as Marv. AR would have more weapons. Pierce impressed me today regarding our WR's now. Downs and Pittman both are very good, maybe not great but very good IMO. 

[jvan1973]

21 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

Henry had more than 20 carries and over 100 yards in the game. He was responding to you saying before the game that Henry has not had 20 carries in any game.

He didn't have it in the first quarter 

[NFLfan]

6 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

He didn't have it in the first quarter 

 

I know. That is why I explained what he was referring to (something you wrote before this game). It looks like he made a mistake in writing "first quarter"

[Colts1324]

5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah, I pray they don't get him. Levis will have a nice luxury there. We can still draft a WR like Nabors or Odunze though and either of those guys may be just as great as Marv. AR would have more weapons. Pierce impressed me today regarding our WR's now. Downs and Pittman both are very good, maybe not great but very good IMO. 

It’s going to be an interesting draft for us next year. This draft class is loaded at OT, QB, Edge (along with WR & CB). It looks like 12-15 of the top 20 picks are going to be QB, OT, & Edge. 

 

 

A lot of good players are going to fall to us.