NFL.com win total projection by Cynthia Frelund

[Moosejawcolt]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

Wowza… 

 

The person who decided to draft Anthony Richardson us the same person who decided not to trade up to get him.   His name is Chris Ballard.   The ultimate decision to draft him was not — NOT — made by Brown.   He’s further down the chain of command.   Ed Dodds is the assistant GM.   Brown followed AR throughout the 22 season and thru the draft process at the direction of….  Chris Ballard.   If Richardson is a hit,  Ballard will get 1000 percent credit.   As he should.  CB picked AR and the right coach to groom him.  
 

As for what Venturi thinks?   I couldn't care less.   He literally does not move the needle for me.   His opinion of the roster is worthless to me.  

 

Oh, and FWIW,  the six guys you hope will come on this year and be good players are all Ballard picks and most get routinely trashed by this community.   I expect all of them to be important players for the Colts this year.   Only injuries would stop them.  

Agreed, he drafted him but from all reports coming out, this appeared to be Steichen's call.

[NewColtsFan]

14 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Agreed, he drafted him but from all reports coming out, this appeared to be Steichen's call.

Huh? 
 

Steichen was on board.   But the ultimate decision came from Chris Ballard.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

FWIW: 
 

Vegas has the Colts win projection at….6.5 

I trust Vegas more than I do her. I have us winning 8 games if we can stay fairly healthy most of the season. It will be interesting to see how Taylor plays when he comes back in week 5, if he plays.

[bluebombers87]

6 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I trust Vegas more than I do her. I have us winning 8 games if we can stay fairly healthy most of the season. It will be interesting to see how Taylor plays when he comes back in week 5, if he plays.

I think the colts will be in the mix in winning the division in the back half of the season, due partly to the weakness in the AFC South and to the underestimated play by the colts.

 

Ultimately I think we miss winning the division by a slim margin but, I think we win it next year.

 

We have a new kind of QB and his physicality is off the charts. In this league, I think he can carry the colts assuming no injuries.

[JColts72]

If everything goes right, maybe 8 wins. Realistically; 6.

[Dingus McGirt]

15 hours ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Oh..the doom and gloom. I doubt we score an offensive TD this year. 

Sorry, I was just relaying what was said on Sirius XM.

[Jackie Daytona]

Dang.....I really have been wanting to like Kravitz again lately...lol but he makes it hard every time I really wanna.

 

Two to three wins tops he says?

 

Good lord .... This team is HALF or LESS as good as that tripe last year?

 

He imagines somehow that Steichen WITH a QB....  is somehow winning at the same clip as JEFF SATURDAY with guys like Matt Ryans Corpse and Whoever the guy claiming to be an NFL QB is as our current 3rd stringer??  ( I swear Ehlinger came from central casting, he can't be a Football player)

 

I'm not really surprised, I just had hope that his takes would be more thought out, reasoned, and representative of a critical and experienced mind, now that he's a freelancer basically....but nope.  I guess Leopard can't change their spots!  

 

(Not that I think we're gonna be amazing, but man....HALF of last years total!?)

 

 

 

 

[Jackie Daytona]

16 hours ago, Solid84 said:

Cynthia Frelund posted her win total projections for the AFC and NFC on NFL.com

 

Win Total Projections

 

Colts are dead last in the AFC with 5.3 wins - Ceiling 7.9, Floor 4.7.

 

League wide only the Cardinals have a lower win projection at 3.9. The Rams have a lower floor of 4.5.

Isn't that basically impossible?  

 

I'm not mathematician..... But if out of 32 teams, the worst two are 3 or 4, and 4 or 5 wins....  that means basically no one will win 13 or more?  Dose she expect the majority of the league to be 7-9 to 9-7?

[Jackie Daytona]

10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

If Richardson is a complete disaster and the team looks badly coached, THEN Ballard would likely not survive.   But that’s a long way away.  

I think Ballard is safe.  For this year plus.  That said, How can anything be "a long way away?". Technically this evaluation BEGINS in a few days.....  I just think it will last two years.

[BigJohnDutt]

17 hours ago, Solid84 said:

Cynthia Frelund posted her win total projections for the AFC and NFC on NFL.com

 

Win Total Projections

 

Colts are dead last in the AFC with 5.3 wins - Ceiling 7.9, Floor 4.7.

 

League wide only the Cardinals have a lower win projection at 3.9. The Rams have a lower floor of 4.5.

I would say that is about right.   Rookie QB and limited skill position quality.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, bluebombers87 said:

I think the colts will be in the mix in winning the division in the back half of the season, due partly to the weakness in the AFC South and to the underestimated play by the colts.

 

Ultimately I think we miss winning the division by a slim margin but, I think we win it next year.

 

We have a new kind of QB and his physicality is off the charts. In this league, I think he can carry the colts assuming no injuries.

That is what some are doing as in not factoring in what division we play in and our overall schedule isn't that tough. We could go 3-3 in the division alone, especially if we win Sunday. Even I wasn't a Colts fan, I would look at our team and schedule and think, the Colts should win at least 6 games unless AR flat out stinks. I think AR will be average at worse as a rookie. Our defense IMO, will be better than most think as well. I am worried about having young Corners but our D kept us in a lot of games last season where we could have won 3 or 4 more games. Not having Taylor hurts but if we can go 2-2 without him, we can be an 8 win team which isn't farfetched. 

[Solid84]

29 minutes ago, Jackie Daytona said:

Isn't that basically impossible?  

 

I'm not mathematician..... But if out of 32 teams, the worst two are 3 or 4, and 4 or 5 wins....  that means basically no one will win 13 or more?  Dose she expect the majority of the league to be 7-9 to 9-7?

The Chiefs have a win projection of 11.3 and a ceiling of 12.5? There are plenty of teams with a projection of 10+ wins.

[FanFromtheWasteland]

That's probably about right, but I hope it's higher

[csmopar]

12 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Here's what I could see happening. Let's say Richardson looks like the franchise, but many of Ballards recent picks do not take shape. I  could see a scenario in which Steichen has gained Irsay's trust, and Steichen picks his own GM. It works in KC, New England, Seattle, and San Fran.

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, Jackie Daytona said:

I think Ballard is safe.  For this year plus.  That said, How can anything be "a long way away?". Technically this evaluation BEGINS in a few days.....  I just think it will last two years.

The evaluation starts in a few days, but it doesn’t end until early January.   That’s four long months.   I think everything would have to go wrong for Ballard to lose his job.  And honestly I don’t see that happening.   I agree with you, he’s safe for this year.  

[BlackTiger]

6 hours ago, Jackie Daytona said:

Dose she expect the majority of the league to be 7-9 to 9-7?

Half the league finished in that range last year.  She also listed a range of ceilings and floors so adding up win and loss totals of that range of ceilings and floors is complicated to get a final sum that makes sense 

[shasta519]

15 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I don't think Ballard would get a lot of credit if Richardson succeeds. From all the info coming out, it was Brown, I believe that was his  name, and Steichen who felt that Richardson  could   was legit. I was listening to  a Colts  podcast and love him or hate him, Venturi felt this was a meh roster.  I said about a week ago that this roster reminded me of a expansion team roster. Yes, I was being dramatic, but  I am hoping that guys like Pierce, Granson, Raimann, Ogletree, Paye and Adengbo(spelling) become those guys.  It is funny but I just think of the Chiefs and the superstar elite players that they have drafted; Mahonnes,Hill, Kelce, Jones. Those 4 players are arguably the best at their positions. I am craving for an elite postion player to develop under Ballard's leadership.

 

Ballard will get so much credit if AR pans out. If he doesn't, Ballard will be accountable, but Brown will be the scapegoat.

 

Dodds has wisely made it known that he had reservations about AR during the scouting process. The fence-sitting will likely serve him well.

[shasta519]

6 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

That is what some are doing as in not factoring in what division we play in and our overall schedule isn't that tough. We could go 3-3 in the division alone, especially if we win Sunday. Even I wasn't a Colts fan, I would look at our team and schedule and think, the Colts should win at least 6 games unless AR flat out stinks. I think AR will be average at worse as a rookie. Our defense IMO, will be better than most think as well. I am worried about having young Corners but our D kept us in a lot of games last season where we could have won 3 or 4 more games. Not having Taylor hurts but if we can go 2-2 without him, we can be an 8 win team which isn't farfetched. 

 

The Colts went 1-4-1 against the lowly AFC South last year.

 

• JAC is clearly on the way up and are the favorites.
• Colts haven't beat TEN in the past 5 games. They fired their awful OC and added DHop, which can only help their offense. The defense is still stout.
• HOU hired a new coaching staff, including the passing game coordinator from SF. They drafted the QB2 prospect and hvae added a lot of talent in the draft the past two years, in addition to adding several vets in FA.

Meanwhile, the Colts did draft a QB as well. And they hired a new HC to install a new scheme. But the defense lost key players and they are relying on a very unproven secondary. They will be without JT for at least 4 weeks (2 of which are AFCS games). If JT is out for 6 weeks, he will miss 4/6 AFCS games.

 

Not really sure I see 3 wins, unless AR is far better than I think. Even then, the defense could be far worse than we have seen before.

[shasta519]

6 hours ago, Jackie Daytona said:

Dang.....I really have been wanting to like Kravitz again lately...lol but he makes it hard every time I really wanna.

 

Two to three wins tops he says?

 

Good lord .... This team is HALF or LESS as good as that tripe last year?

 

He imagines somehow that Steichen WITH a QB....  is somehow winning at the same clip as JEFF SATURDAY with guys like Matt Ryans Corpse and Whoever the guy claiming to be an NFL QB is as our current 3rd stringer??  ( I swear Ehlinger came from central casting, he can't be a Football player)

 

I'm not really surprised, I just had hope that his takes would be more thought out, reasoned, and representative of a critical and experienced mind, now that he's a freelancer basically....but nope.  I guess Leopard can't change their spots!  

 

(Not that I think we're gonna be amazing, but man....HALF of last years total!?)

 

 

 

 

 

Here's why I think there is some validity to this. The offense should be better. It has to be.

 

However, the defense is what kept last year's team in games. And I think the defense has a chance to be far worse than we are accustomed to seeing. The secondary is full of young and/or unproven players.

 

Even with Gilmore, Rodgers and McLeod playing really good ball last year, the Colts were bottom 3 in passer rating and comp % against. They were #18 in pass defense EPA.

 

And the LB room lost Oke, who filled in at WILL for Shaq. Oke is now gone and there are big question marks about Shaq coming back, let alone being the same player he was before. That leaves the starting LB duo as Franklin and Speed without much depth. From a pass coverage standpoint, that is not ideal.

 

The potential is there for the pass defense to be swiss cheese against the pass. And if that happens, the Colts will find themselves with far less margin for error and playing catchup far more often. That's just not an ideal situation for a raw rookie QB who is still developing as a passer. 

 

I can see a scenario similar to CHI last year.

[Moosejawcolt]

7 years in and this is what we r left with? When u actually survey this team, Ballard should have been gone. I will reset, but he should have been fired. I am looking and having a hard time seeing the next young thing on this roster. All his young draft picks have looked meh in practice and preseason. Things could change but I am not very hopeful. Steichen basically dumped all the wr talent accumulated  by Ballad. We r left with guys who have not shown the ability to separate. The TE and WR group need to flourish in order for Richardson to develop. That could  lead to Ballard's exit this season. Also, Paye and Adengbo have yet to have wow moments. How many picks has he sunk into this Dline? To many to have these results.  The Oline better bounce back or else. I do see a scenario where Ballard could be gone. If Steichen views Ballard as a poor evaluator of talent, there could be a power struggle. My bet is on Steichen if Richardson balls out in spite of the talent around him.

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

Ballard will get so much credit if AR pans out. If he doesn't, Ballard will be accountable, but Brown will be the scapegoat.

 

Dodds has wisely made it known that he had reservations about AR during the scouting process. The fence-sitting will likely serve him well.

“Brown will be the scapegoat.”
 

Wow, I sure didn’t see that coming….  

[CoachLite]

25 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

7 years in and this is what we r left with? When u actually survey this team, Ballard should have been gone. I will reset, but he should have been fired. I am looking and having a hard time seeing the next young thing on this roster. All his young draft picks have looked meh in practice and preseason. Things could change but I am not very hopeful. Steichen basically dumped all the wr talent accumulated  by Ballad. We r left with guys who have not shown the ability to separate. The TE and WR group need to flourish in order for Richardson to develop. That could  lead to Ballard's exit this season. Also, Paye and Adengbo have yet to have wow moments. How many picks has he sunk into this Dline? To many to have these results.  The Oline better bounce back or else. I do see a scenario where Ballard could be gone. If Steichen views Ballard as a poor evaluator of talent, there could be a power struggle. My bet is on Steichen if Richardson balls out in spite of the talent around him.

Moosejaw is collecting the feathers and heating the tar. Is anyone else willing to gather the pitchforks and torches?

[Defjamz26]

If we win more than 7 games, color me surprised.

[NewColtsFan]

58 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

7 years in and this is what we r left with? When u actually survey this team, Ballard should have been gone. I will reset, but he should have been fired. I am looking and having a hard time seeing the next young thing on this roster. All his young draft picks have looked meh in practice and preseason. Things could change but I am not very hopeful. Steichen basically dumped all the wr talent accumulated  by Ballad. We r left with guys who have not shown the ability to separate. The TE and WR group need to flourish in order for Richardson to develop. That could  lead to Ballard's exit this season. Also, Paye and Adengbo have yet to have wow moments. How many picks has he sunk into this Dline? To many to have these results.  The Oline better bounce back or else. I do see a scenario where Ballard could be gone. If Steichen views Ballard as a poor evaluator of talent, there could be a power struggle. My bet is on Steichen if Richardson balls out in spite of the talent around him.

So….  As of 430p my time, 730p east coast time you’re officially OFF the Chris Ballard train.  
 

Not sure you’re even aware that as recently as a few months ago you were publicly saying that you were a supporter of Ballard’s.   You freely admitted that you used to be negative about Ballard but you had switched and were then pro-Ballard. You defended him against all attacks.  
 

And now you’ve switched yet again. 
 

My score keeping book is filling up quickly.  Who knows how many more times you could switch positions again?    

[Moosejawcolt]

3 hours ago, CoachLite said:

Moosejaw is collecting the feathers and heating the tar. Is anyone else willing to gather the pitchforks and torches?

I said I would give him a 2nd chance. However,, after preseason and joint practices, I am under whelmed by the talent on this team. Remember, people said that Frank was the problem. Now the excuse will be that we have a rookie qb. Yes, we do have a rookie qb. That being said, the supposed talent that Ballard has assembled should make it easier for him to excel. I actually expect Richardson to lift the talent of those around him and not the other way around. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

18 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

The Colts went 1-4-1 against the lowly AFC South last year.

 

• JAC is clearly on the way up and are the favorites.
• Colts haven't beat TEN in the past 5 games. They fired their awful OC and added DHop, which can only help their offense. The defense is still stout.
• HOU hired a new coaching staff, including the passing game coordinator from SF. They drafted the QB2 prospect and hvae added a lot of talent in the draft the past two years, in addition to adding several vets in FA.

Meanwhile, the Colts did draft a QB as well. And they hired a new HC to install a new scheme. But the defense lost key players and they are relying on a very unproven secondary. They will be without JT for at least 4 weeks (2 of which are AFCS games). If JT is out for 6 weeks, he will miss 4/6 AFCS games.

 

Not really sure I see 3 wins, unless AR is far better than I think. Even then, the defense could be far worse than we have seen before.

I think our defense is going to be better than you think, I might be wrong wouldn't be the first time, but they played hard last tyear and kept us in many games.

 

Regarding the division, that 1-4-1 is deceiving. We just blew 2 games against the Texans, 1 by missing a FG so it ends in a tie, then the Texans beat us on a prayer/short hailmary  . We really should have been 3-3. Also I think the Titans will not be as good either this year. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

13 hours ago, CoachLite said:

Moosejaw is collecting the feathers and heating the tar. Is anyone else willing to gather the pitchforks and torches?

No.

[2006Coltsbestever]

13 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

If we win more than 7 games, color me surprised.

Winning 7 games would be a good season for us since most of the media and some in here think we stink. Bob Kravitz says we will win 3 games 

 

I am not saying we will be good and I am an optimist but this 3 or 4 win stuff is comical. 

[chad72]

6-9 based on how a few games go was always my gut feeling at the beginning of the season, it hasn't changed.

 

I just don't see us winning double digit games but that is OK.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, chad72 said:

6-9 based on how a few games go was always my gut feeling at the beginning of the season, it hasn't changed.

 

I just don't see us winning double digit games but that is OK.

A lot of question marks, will Leonard play a lot this year? Will JT play games 5-17? A lot of what if's. 6 wins is real doable IMO as long as AR plays above average football. I also have more faith in Shane as a coach than many do, I see him as possibly a McVay or Shannahan type coach. I think his offensive mind will fool many teams.

[teganslaw]

I like Cynthia Frelund, but her predictions aren't always correct. I take them with a grain of salt. 

The one I like is Tom Grossi of Packast videos. He lists the floor and ceiling of each division. His prediction has the Colts floor 7-10, ceiling 9-8. He thinks Anthony Richardson has the talent to get wins for the team. If Jonathan Taylor is traded, the floor will be more likely. 

[Yoshinator]

Cynthia Frelund is an analytics expert. She's probably the smartest female in the business for NFL. I generally trust her for the most part as she puts pride into her work and tries to put her own unique spin on things. Having said that, I do believe that we win around 6 games this year. This year will expose Jonathan Taylor in a big way by showing he made little to no difference in the teams win total. It will show that Richardson and Steichen are ultimately more important than he was, and even with a young team with holes, a rookie QB with high potential and a rookie coach with high potential are more important than an elite RB.

 

We'll have ups and downs (more downs), but it'll at least be respectable to the point where the games are entertaining IMO. The coaching will actually be at a professional level (unlike Pagano and Reich) where we won't have to worry about random inconsistencies every drive. My patience is thin with this team with all the drama surrounding it, but they have a chance to win me back with their performance on the field. Actions speak louder than words, lets see if the Colts can do anything this year.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Cynthia Frelund is an analytics expert. She's probably the smartest female in the business for NFL. I generally trust her for the most part as she puts pride into her work and tries to put her own unique spin on things. Having said that, I do believe that we win around 6 games this year. This year will expose Jonathan Taylor in a big way by showing he made little to no difference in the teams win total. It will show that Richardson and Steichen are ultimately more important than he was, and even with a young team with holes, a rookie QB with high potential and a rookie coach with high potential are more important than an elite RB.

 

We'll have ups and downs (more downs), but it'll at least be respectable to the point where the games are entertaining IMO. The coaching will actually be at a professional level (unlike Pagano and Reich) where we won't have to worry about random inconsistencies every drive. My patience is thin with this team with all the drama surrounding it, but they have a chance to win me back with their performance on the field. Actions speak louder than words, lets see if the Colts can do anything this year.

But what if Taylor plays like 11 or 12 games and we win 8 or 9 games?

[Yoshinator]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

But what if Taylor plays like 11 or 12 games and we win 8 or 9 games?

I would still lean it being more Richardson and Steichen than Taylor. Taylor ran for over 1800 yards in 2021 and we only won 9 games, so that shows his value tbh. It's about the same as Derrick Henry when he's elite. Not good enough. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Cynthia Frelund is an analytics expert. She's probably the smartest female in the business for NFL. I generally trust her for the most part as she puts pride into her work and tries to put her own unique spin on things. Having said that, I do believe that we win around 6 games this year. This year will expose Jonathan Taylor in a big way by showing he made little to no difference in the teams win total. It will show that Richardson and Steichen are ultimately more important than he was, and even with a young team with holes, a rookie QB with high potential and a rookie coach with high potential are more important than an elite RB.

 

We'll have ups and downs (more downs), but it'll at least be respectable to the point where the games are entertaining IMO. The coaching will actually be at a professional level (unlike Pagano and Reich) where we won't have to worry about random inconsistencies every drive. My patience is thin with this team with all the drama surrounding it, but they have a chance to win me back with their performance on the field. Actions speak louder than words, lets see if the Colts can do anything this year.

Analytics is a good thing, it can show a lot of tendencies of players. It can determine who might be the better player compared to someone else as well. It doesn't measure the Clutch Factor or certain human tendencies is the problem. If someone just went by analytics, they would have said Andrew Luck's rookie year was average at best. Which we know it was damn great because of Clutch play, and his ability to win games in the 4th Qtr.

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I would still lean it being more Richardson and Steichen than Taylor. Taylor ran for over 1800 yards in 2021 and we only won 9 games, so that shows his value tbh. It's about the same as Derrick Henry when he's elite. Not good enough. 

In 2021, without Taylor I think we win 6 games. He made a 3 game difference, JMO. 3 games isn't a lot but still a noticeable difference. Tennessee's downfall is, they went and then stuck with Tannehill when Henry was at his absolute best. They never had the QB to win it all. 

[Yoshinator]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Analytics is a good thing, it can show a lot of tendencies of players. It can determine who might be the better player compared to someone else as well. It doesn't measure the Clutch Factor or certain human tendencies is the problem. If someone just went by analytics, they would have said Andrew Luck's rookie year was average at best. Which we know it was damn great because of Clutch play, and his ability to win games in the 4th Qtr.

I couldn't disagree more with this. Andrew Luck wasn't clutch IMO. He started off slow in the majority of games (whether it be because of a low football IQ, poor coaching, or the poor team around him), and he came back late in games because teams played the prevent defense and allowed the Colts to make comebacks late in games. Yes, Luck probably overachieved % wise in how many 4th quarter comebacks he made, but he put this team in a bad situation most games by starting off slow and having to comeback late. Even the Chiefs playoff game happened that way in 2013. It was a lot of fun watching it, but Luck padded his stats pretty well, and if teams played him in the 2nd half like the 1st half, Luck would have been an average or worse QB.

 

Honestly, I don't believe in the clutch factor. I believe in long-term statistics. I don't believe necessarily that players do better under pressure at a consistent rate. I don't even believe most players have a long enough sample size over a career to properly determine if they are clutch. Sometimes big names will fail and sometimes an unsung hero will come through on the big stage. IMO, any result can happen once or twice, I just don't believe in "clutch". I believe in the law of averages working out over the long-term. There are exceptions to every rule, but the best of the best are the best for a reason, and it's because they are consistently good or have a good team around them.

[Yoshinator]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

In 2021, without Taylor I think we win 6 games. He made a 3 game difference, JMO. 3 games isn't a lot but still a noticeable difference. Tennessee's downfall is, they went and then stuck with Tannehill when Henry was at his absolute best. They never had the QB to win it all. 

If Tennessee (or Indy) had a better QB to win it all, then Taylor or Henry would have been much less relied on. They would probably be 1200 yard RBs because the QB play would carry them. I just don't see, in the modern era, a team led by a franchise RB being able to win a SB, or even make the playoffs most of the time. If we make the playoffs this year, it will be because of Richardson and Steichen IMO.

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I couldn't disagree more with this. Andrew Luck wasn't clutch IMO. He started off slow in the majority of games (whether it be because of a low football IQ, poor coaching, or the poor team around him), and he came back late in games because teams played the prevent defense and allowed the Colts to make comebacks late in games. Yes, Luck probably overachieved % wise in how many 4th quarter comebacks he made, but he put this team in a bad situation most games by starting off slow and having to comeback late. Even the Chiefs playoff game happened that way in 2013. It was a lot of fun watching it, but Luck padded his stats pretty well, and if teams played him in the 2nd half like the 1st half, Luck would have been an average or worse QB.

 

Honestly, I don't believe in the clutch factor. I believe in long-term statistics. I don't believe necessarily that players do better under pressure at a consistent rate. I don't even believe most players have a long enough sample size over a career to properly determine if they are clutch. Sometimes big names will fail and sometimes an unsung hero will come through on the big stage. IMO, any result can happen once or twice, I just don't believe in "clutch". I believe in the law of averages working out over the long-term. There are exceptions to every rule, but the best of the best are the best for a reason, and it's because they are consistently good or have a good team around them.

I totally disagree. Luck had 7 come from behind victories in his rookie season. Clutch is when you have a QB that has the ball with 3 minutes or so in the game and takes you down for the game winner no matter how bad they may have played earlier in the game. Stats can't measure that. Joe Montana had many games where he didn't put-up huge stats but he knew how to win on many last minute drives. I have seen games where John Elway played lousy for 3 qtrs., then in the last 8 minutes lead his team to victory. He had the clutch gene.

[Yoshinator]

8 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I totally disagree. Luck had 7 come from behind victories in his rookie season. Clutch is when you have a QB that has the ball with 3 minutes or so in the game and takes you down for the game winner no matter how bad they may have played earlier in the game. Stats can't measure that. Joe Montana had many games where he didn't put-up huge stats but he knew how to win on many last minute drives. I have seen games where John Elway played lousy for 3 qtrs., then in the last 8 minutes lead his team to victory. He had the clutch gene.

I understand how Luck won those 4th quarter comebacks his rookie season, I just wasn't a fan of him consistently putting the team in a bad situation and having to work his way out of it the rest of the game. Then, people acted like it was a great thing when he got us out of the hole he put us in in the first place. I'm merely explaining the process behind why he was able to come back those games, and why I don't believe it was "clutch", and why it was more the defense played prevent, and gave him an opportunity to get back in the game because they thought the game was under control. 

 

As I said, Luck overachieved in those spots, but when defenses tried 100%, he underperformed a lot of the time. Call me a hater, but I always consistently said that about him, and my opinion has never wavered.