Grading the 2019 Colts Draft

[John Hammonds]

Since so many of our fingers are pointing at players from the 2019 draft as contributing to our epic stumbling out of the gate, I thought I'd do a quick grade of that draft.

 

Round 1 / Pick 26 - traded to Washington for their 2019 46th pick, and their 2020 2nd rounder.  The 46th pick, in turn, was traded to Cleveland for their 2019 49th pick and their 2019 144th pick.  Those picks turned into Ben Banogu and Marvell Tell III.  The 34th pick in 2020 turned into Michael Pittman Jr.  Washington used the 26th pick to choose Montez Sweat, who in 2 1/2 years generated 21 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, and an interception.  He's not a pro bowl player, but he's effective more often than not.  (No, not worth a 1st round pick.)  As for our three players, only Pittman stands out.  He also is a very good player, just a shade under pro bowl level.

Grade - B  If Banogu and Tell had panned out, this would have been a brilliant nest of trades by Ballard.  As it is, it's just Pittman vs Sweat.  Advantage Ballard on that one.

Round 2 / Pick 34 - part of the 2018 trade with the Jets (our 3rd for their 6th, plus extras).  We pick Rock Ya-Sin.  A prototypical corner for the Tampa-2 defense, he's good at tackling on his own, but lacked strong coverage ability.  He started early, had some good moments, but got beaten across the middle a lot.  He did improve, and he got picked on less and less.  *** Pro Bowl receiver Deebo Samuel was still on the board, and was taken at pick 36.

Grade - C minus - Although he did become a starter, missing out on Deebo Samuel drags this grade down.  (Trading him away this year for Yannick Ngakue doesn't help either.)

Round 2 / Pick 49 - from the Washington multi-trade above.  We take Ben Banogu.  This pick had disaster written all over it.  Ballard initially said Banogu would play Sam linebacker.  A position he never played.  But his strength was rushing the passer.  Thing is, no matter how good he looked in practice, it never panned out in the game.  Spent the better part of 2 years as a healthy scratch.  *** Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown was still on the board and was taken at pick 51.

Grade - D minus - A definitive bust, or a pro bowl receiver?  Yuck.

Round 2 / Pick 59 - Our own pick.  We took Parris Campbell.  Campbell was a speedy, joystick gadget player at Ohio State.  He never mastered their route tree.  And he didn't need to.  Joystick players dominate at the collegiate level.  When he got here, he got injured.  And then he got injured again.  And again.  Now, in 2022, he's not injured, but he's not effective.  At all.  *** Pro bowl receiver D.K. Metcalf was still on the board (taken 64th) and so was pro bowl receiver Dionte Johnson (taken 66th).

Grade - D minus - Campbell is quickly becoming a bust.  While Metcalf has his shortcomings, he's a heckuva lot better than Campbell.

Round 3 / Pick 89 - Our own pick.  We took Bobby Okereke.  A brainy player from Stanford (he hung out with Condoleeza Rice), he worked his way into the rotation, and took over the starting Mike job from Anthony Walker.  He's not quite the big play linebacker that Leonard is, but he's a valuable member of the team.

Grade - B - To get this good a starter in the 3rd round is excellent scouting work.

Round 4 / Pick 109 - traded up with two picks, our 129th and 135th, to the Raiders pick 109.  We take Khari Willis.  More of a hard-nosed box safety, Willis showed early promise, and earned a starting job.  Missed half the 2021 season with an injury, and then retired in 2022 to pursue the ministry full time.

Grade - C - It's good to get a starter with a 4th round pick, but to trading away two picks to get a guy that didn't last drags this grade down.

Round 5 / Pick 144 - Our own pick.  We took Marvell Tell III.  An interesting pick.  Big safety size, but some talent at corner.  Some.  Wound up starting a little by necessity, due to injuries.  Showed a little promise.  Chose to sit out the 2020 pandemic season.  When he came back, he couldn't even make the team.  On and off the practice squad.  *** Pro bowl kicker Matt Gay was still on the board.  2019 was the year that Vinateri lost it.  Ballard kept him in to honor his sure-to-be HOF status.  But he was a big reason we lost many games.  Imagine having a pro bowl kicker on the team in 2019.  We may have been in the playoffs.

Grade - C - We can't fault a 5th rounder for being mediocre.  But the kicker thing kinda stings.

Round 5 / Pick 164 - Our own pick.  We took E.J. Speed.  From tiny little Tarleton State.  It was hard to find highlight film on him.  But this guy is a late round gem.  Played well on special teams.  And worked his way into the first alternate for Leonard.  Making a case to be a starter.

Grade - A - Now that's called first-rate scouting.

Round 6 / Pick 199 - Our own pick.  We took defensive end Gerri Green.  And that's about all we can say about him.  He didn't even make the team.

Grade - F - A sixth round gamble.  Meh.

Round 7 / Pick 240 - Our own pick.  We took Jackson Barton, offensive tackle.  Didn't make the team.  Got picked up by the Chiefs, and rode their bench to the superbowl.

Grade - F - He didn't play for us.  Come to think of it, he didn't play much for anyone else, either.

Round 7 / Pick 246 - Our own pick.  We took Javon Patterson, offensive center.  Injured.  Cut.  Has jumped around the league.  Nada.

Grade - F - All of the last three picks were blindfolded tosses at the dart board.  Maybe they had something.  But if they didn't it wasn't a big deal.

 

TOTAL DRAFT GRADE - C minus

Out of 11 picks, we got 2 good starters, 1 good backup, and 0 pro bowlers.  And missed on 5 pro bowlers in the bargain.  Imagine what we'd have looked like if we'd taken them:

 

WR Michael Pittman

WR Deebo Samuel

WR A.J. Brown

WR D.K. Metcalf

LB Bobby Okereke

S Khari Willis

K Matt Gay

LB E.J. Speed

 

Instead of having a WR problem today, we would have the opposite problem:  too many good receivers and not enough balls!

[IinD]

[runthepost]

Ballard and Reich would have converted Metcalf to play LT

[John Waylon]

Delayed gratification 

[Boondoggle]

Tough thing about grading drafts is differentiating the impact players.  You can say "well we found a starting corner in round 3" for example but what kind of starter is he.  Is he a mediocre slot?  Or can you play him outside the boundary with no safety help.  Both are starters.  One is easy to find.  The other is extremely difficult to find.

[AwesomeAustin]

No problem with your analysis. Dropping a grade bc we could have picked another player out of hindsight is a bit of a stretch for me.  Anyways, your post so do it your way.  I appreciate the nice write up. 

[ruf]

1 hour ago, AwesomeAustin said:

No problem with your analysis. Dropping a grade bc we could have picked another player out of hindsight is a bit of a stretch for me.  Anyways, your post so do it your way.  I appreciate the nice write up. 

i liked the way he did that it does show what kind of draft we could have had and should take away from the grade

[AwesomeAustin]

7 minutes ago, ruf said:

i liked the way he did that it does show what kind of draft we could have had and should take away from the grade

Does it go the other way as well?  We could have drafted Andy Isabella who has been a mainstay as an inactive for the Cardinals. Does that add to the grade?  

[DougDew]

Well, if Ballard was really a genius back then, he would have seen the trends in the NFL and secured 2 Wrs when we only had an aging TY and nobody else.  

 

Other teams today have two Dog Wrs.  And even back in the glorious 70s and 80, there was Rice/Taylor, Swann/Stallworth....Harrison/Wayne...so its not like having two WRs is a new thing for a winning offense. 

 

Saying now that we should have picked Deebo or AJ then is not hindsight.   It was noted the moment we passed with them still on the board at the time.  DK Metcalf maybe is hindsight, but neither Deebo or AJ Brown was hindsight.  It was criticized at the time by many because we saw TY getting older and nobody playing the other side for years..

 

 

 

[Defjamz26]

You also forgot that Terry McLaurin was in that draft as well. Better than Campbell in every way imaginable coming out of college, and we passed. 
 

Id also downgrade Okereke’s draft grade. He was drafted to be Walker’s replacement and isn’t half as good as Walker. He doesn’t make any noteworthy plays besides the time he returned a 2-point conversion for a score. This next to 2017 is Ballard’s worst draft.

[IndySouthsider]

Grading a 6th and 7th rounder as F is silly. Very few make it and even fewer became Tom Brady 

[John Hammonds]

9 hours ago, IndySouthsider said:

Grading a 6th and 7th rounder as F is silly. Very few make it and even fewer became Tom Brady 

You're not wrong.  I'd originally graded them a D.  Because I feel the same as you.  Round 6 and 7 is a crapshoot.  You may get lucky and you may not.  And an F grade really ought to be reserved for a serious mistake, which none these three were.  But I didn't want anyone to say, "Well, if these guys didn't even make the team and you gave them a D, what does it take to be an F???"  So...  Whatever.

[John Hammonds]

10 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

You also forgot that Terry McLaurin was in that draft as well. Better than Campbell in every way imaginable coming out of college, and we passed. 
 

Id also downgrade Okereke’s draft grade. He was drafted to be Walker’s replacement and isn’t half as good as Walker. He doesn’t make any noteworthy plays besides the time he returned a 2-point conversion for a score. This next to 2017 is Ballard’s worst draft.

You're absolutely right.  McLaurin was a great find in the 3rd round.  And he (pick 76) was after Campbell (pick 59), Metcalf (pick 64), and Dionte Johnson (pick 66).

 

I'd also like to say that in no way would this draft grading mean "I'm so much better than Ballard!  I should be the GM!"  My favorite player coming out of this draft was Joe Jackson, the DE out of Miami.  He fell all the way to the 6th round, picked by Dallas, bounced around the league on various practice squads, and right now isn't playing at all!

[IrsaysArmy]

13 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

Since so many of our fingers are pointing at players from the 2019 draft as contributing to our epic stumbling out of the gate, I thought I'd do a quick grade of that draft.

 

Round 1 / Pick 26 - traded to Washington for their 2019 46th pick, and their 2020 2nd rounder.  The 46th pick, in turn, was traded to Cleveland for their 2019 49th pick and their 2019 144th pick.  Those picks turned into Ben Banogu and Marvell Tell III.  The 34th pick in 2020 turned into Michael Pittman Jr.  Washington used the 26th pick to choose Montez Sweat, who in 2 1/2 years generated 21 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, and an interception.  He's not a pro bowl player, but he's effective more often than not.  (No, not worth a 1st round pick.)  As for our three players, only Pittman stands out.  He also is a very good player, just a shade under pro bowl level.

Grade - B  If Banogu and Tell had panned out, this would have been a brilliant nest of trades by Ballard.  As it is, it's just Pittman vs Sweat.  Advantage Ballard on that one.

Round 2 / Pick 34 - part of the 2018 trade with the Jets (our 3rd for their 6th, plus extras).  We pick Rock Ya-Sin.  A prototypical corner for the Tampa-2 defense, he's good at tackling on his own, but lacked strong coverage ability.  He started early, had some good moments, but got beaten across the middle a lot.  He did improve, and he got picked on less and less.  *** Pro Bowl receiver Deebo Samuel was still on the board, and was taken at pick 36.

Grade - C minus - Although he did become a starter, missing out on Deebo Samuel drags this grade down.  (Trading him away this year for Yannick Ngakue doesn't help either.)

Round 2 / Pick 49 - from the Washington multi-trade above.  We take Ben Banogu.  This pick had disaster written all over it.  Ballard initially said Banogu would play Sam linebacker.  A position he never played.  But his strength was rushing the passer.  Thing is, no matter how good he looked in practice, it never panned out in the game.  Spent the better part of 2 years as a healthy scratch.  *** Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown was still on the board and was taken at pick 51.

Grade - D minus - A definitive bust, or a pro bowl receiver?  Yuck.

Round 2 / Pick 59 - Our own pick.  We took Parris Campbell.  Campbell was a speedy, joystick gadget player at Ohio State.  He never mastered their route tree.  And he didn't need to.  Joystick players dominate at the collegiate level.  When he got here, he got injured.  And then he got injured again.  And again.  Now, in 2022, he's not injured, but he's not effective.  At all.  *** Pro bowl receiver D.K. Metcalf was still on the board (taken 64th) and so was pro bowl receiver Dionte Johnson (taken 66th).

Grade - D minus - Campbell is quickly becoming a bust.  While Metcalf has his shortcomings, he's a heckuva lot better than Campbell.

Round 3 / Pick 89 - Our own pick.  We took Bobby Okereke.  A brainy player from Stanford (he hung out with Condoleeza Rice), he worked his way into the rotation, and took over the starting Mike job from Anthony Walker.  He's not quite the big play linebacker that Leonard is, but he's a valuable member of the team.

Grade - B - To get this good a starter in the 3rd round is excellent scouting work.

Round 4 / Pick 109 - traded up with two picks, our 129th and 135th, to the Raiders pick 109.  We take Khari Willis.  More of a hard-nosed box safety, Willis showed early promise, and earned a starting job.  Missed half the 2021 season with an injury, and then retired in 2022 to pursue the ministry full time.

Grade - C - It's good to get a starter with a 4th round pick, but to trading away two picks to get a guy that didn't last drags this grade down.

Round 5 / Pick 144 - Our own pick.  We took Marvell Tell III.  An interesting pick.  Big safety size, but some talent at corner.  Some.  Wound up starting a little by necessity, due to injuries.  Showed a little promise.  Chose to sit out the 2020 pandemic season.  When he came back, he couldn't even make the team.  On and off the practice squad.  *** Pro bowl kicker Matt Gay was still on the board.  2019 was the year that Vinateri lost it.  Ballard kept him in to honor his sure-to-be HOF status.  But he was a big reason we lost many games.  Imagine having a pro bowl kicker on the team in 2019.  We may have been in the playoffs.

Grade - C - We can't fault a 5th rounder for being mediocre.  But the kicker thing kinda stings.

Round 5 / Pick 164 - Our own pick.  We took E.J. Speed.  From tiny little Tarleton State.  It was hard to find highlight film on him.  But this guy is a late round gem.  Played well on special teams.  And worked his way into the first alternate for Leonard.  Making a case to be a starter.

Grade - A - Now that's called first-rate scouting.

Round 6 / Pick 199 - Our own pick.  We took defensive end Gerri Green.  And that's about all we can say about him.  He didn't even make the team.

Grade - F - A sixth round gamble.  Meh.

Round 7 / Pick 240 - Our own pick.  We took Jackson Barton, offensive tackle.  Didn't make the team.  Got picked up by the Chiefs, and rode their bench to the superbowl.

Grade - F - He didn't play for us.  Come to think of it, he didn't play much for anyone else, either.

Round 7 / Pick 246 - Our own pick.  We took Javon Patterson, offensive center.  Injured.  Cut.  Has jumped around the league.  Nada.

Grade - F - All of the last three picks were blindfolded tosses at the dart board.  Maybe they had something.  But if they didn't it wasn't a big deal.

 

TOTAL DRAFT GRADE - C minus

Out of 11 picks, we got 2 good starters, 1 good backup, and 0 pro bowlers.  And missed on 5 pro bowlers in the bargain.  Imagine what we'd have looked like if we'd taken them:

 

WR Michael Pittman

WR Deebo Samuel

WR A.J. Brown

WR D.K. Metcalf

LB Bobby Okereke

S Khari Willis

K Matt Gay

LB E.J. Speed

 

Instead of having a WR problem today, we would have the opposite problem:  too many good receivers and not enough balls!

Imagine those 4 recovers lol. 

[Fluke_33]

Your write up on Khari Willis got me thinking that the colts have some military guy that interviews prospects and is supposed to know who will stick it out and who will not.  Now Willis reason is different than not being a hard worker but shouldn’t that guy have seen it coming.  That there were things more important to him than football?  Is it dodds that I’m thinking of?

 

this post doesn’t mean I didn’t like Willis because I love him as a player. 

[shasta519]

I would say Sweat and Pittman are pretty equal players. Both at positions of high need/value and probably in a similar tier. But Pittman developing into a good WR really helped to even that out trade. It's a shame that they got nothing out of Banogu.

 

I wonder how it would have impacted the following drafts if they had hit on Sweat. I assume the DeFo trade still happens because that was the missing piece, but I wonder if they still draft Paye and Dayo in 2021. I doubt it, which would have really opened up that draft beyond the DL.

[shasta519]

Speed is more of a B+ than an A. He barely played the past 3 years (4%, 0%, 13% of snaps). Even this year, he's still only playing 44% of snaps.

 

For a late pick to be a legit A, they have to be a proven starter. And then A+ would be PB caliber players picked late.

 

I am open to a higher grade by the end of this season, but for now, Okereke is a C+. Getting an average MIKE in the 3rd round is a pretty average pick. And that's what Oke has been. Actually, Oke's PFF grades the past two years (49.5 and 58.5) are below average. But he's at 74.8 right now, so we will see if he can maintain that level of play against better offenses.

 

But really just nit-picking. I think we we can all agree that wasn't a very good draft, given the opportunity that existed.

[chad72]

14 hours ago, runthepost said:

Ballard and Reich would have converted Metcalf to play LT

 

...or TE, might have worked with his stiff hips that couldn't change direction laterally due to which he has to play outside or outrun DBs, which would work with his big body like a Jimmy Graham, only 30 lbs lighter  , IMO. Metcalf's lack of lateral agility does limit him but his physicality gives him the cushion from DBs and allows him to use his body inside for slants like Boldin.

[chad72]

20 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

I would say Sweat and Pittman are pretty equal players. Both at positions of high need/value and probably in a similar tier. But Pittman developing into a good WR really helped to even that out trade. It's a shame that they got nothing out of Banogu.

 

I wonder how it would have impacted the following drafts if they had hit on Sweat. I assume the DeFo trade still happens because that was the missing piece, but I wonder if they still draft Paye and Dayo in 2021. I doubt it, which would have really opened up that draft beyond the DL.

 

True on the bolded part.

 

Both Josh Sweat and Carson Wentz, if they play pivotal roles and the Commanders win, lots of egg on lots of faces. For the Colts sake, I hope that doesn't happen, it sure would be demoralizing for me as a fan.

[shasta519]

11 hours ago, DougDew said:

Well, if Ballard was really a genius back then, he would have seen the trends in the NFL and secured 2 Wrs when we only had an aging TY and nobody else.  

 

Other teams today have two Dog Wrs.  And even back in the glorious 70s and 80, there was Rice/Taylor, Swann/Stallworth....Harrison/Wayne...so its not like having two WRs is a new thing for a winning offense. 

 

Saying now that we should have picked Deebo or AJ then is not hindsight.   It was noted the moment we passed with them still on the board at the time.  DK Metcalf maybe is hindsight, but neither Deebo or AJ Brown was hindsight.  It was criticized at the time by many because we saw TY getting older and nobody playing the other side for years..

 

 

 

 

It's not really hindsight. Many wanted both Deebo, AJB and McLaurin. Could have had all 3.

 

Personallyl I wanted the WR double-dip back then. But I always want to draft WRs, so that's nothing special. Still, it was a particularly great time to do it too, with the picks they had.

 

I think hitting a HR on Leonard the year before really just emboldened their scouting process...to find these high-character players (usually team captains) who perform well in the showcase Bowls and who have unique back stories where they overcame adversity. Be on them before everybody...real "smartest guys in the room" vibe.

 

And they got tunnel vision for these players. I still remember Stampede Blue had a prediction of players who could be drafted by the Colts on Day 2. The list was only 6-7 players, but both RYS and Banogu were on it. I still find that incredible how easy it was for a blogger to know they wanted those players.

 

I will leave out passing on Sweat, as there is controversy on whether he was on or off their board (has never been confirmed either way). But the decisions in that 2nd round were pretty wild:

• Despite the clear need for a WR, they passed on Deebo Samuel, who was destroying CBs in the Senior Bowl. Instead, they took one of those CBs...some late-riser from Temple who ran a 7.4 3-cone.
• Then instead of AJB, they take Banogu, a very raw, but athletic OLB who didn't even fit their system.
• Finally they address WR, taking a raw speedy, gadget WR from OSU instead of 3 guys who have all panned out.

 

[DougDew]

12 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

It's not really hindsight. Many wanted both Deebo, AJB and McLaurin. Could have had all 3.

 

Personallyl I wanted the WR double-dip back then. But I always want to draft WRs, so that's nothing special. Still, it was a particularly great time to do it too, with the picks they had.

 

I think hitting a HR on Leonard the year before really just emboldened their scouting process...to find these high-character players (usually team captains) who perform well in the showcase Bowls and who have unique back stories where they overcame adversity. Be on them before everybody...real "smartest guys in the room" vibe.

 

And they got tunnel vision for these players. I still remember Stampede Blue had a prediction of players who could be drafted by the Colts on Day 2. The list was only 6-7 players, but both RYS and Banogu were on it. I still find that incredible how easy it was for a blogger to know they wanted those players.

 

I will leave out passing on Sweat, as there is controversy on whether he was on or off their board (has never been confirmed either way). But the decisions in that 2nd round were pretty wild:

• Despite the clear need for a WR, they passed on Deebo Samuel, who was destroying CBs in the Senior Bowl. Instead, they took one of those CBs...some late-riser from Temple who ran a 7.4 3-cone.
• Then instead of AJB, they take Banogu, a very raw, but athletic OLB who didn't even fit their system.
• Finally they address WR, taking a raw speedy, gadget WR from OSU instead of 3 guys who have all panned out.

 

I always give Ballard the benefit of the doubt on draft day.  I didn't think to double up (if he was a genius he would have).  But I was pretty disappointed to angry when he passed on Deebo (and he was taken two picks later...obviously proper value there) and when passed on Brown.   I reevaluated my anger after he took Campbell and said "Okay, he was targeting the slot guy later to go with TY and Funchess this year, so I can see what he's doing".

 

But it bothered me that he drafted so much for the immediate season, having addressed the long vacant X WR position by signing Funchess to a one year contract.  You know, secure the X for one season...that doesn't keep you from drafting a long term X when one is sitting their for the picking....especially an athletic X like Deebo or AJ Brown...who were both clearly good WRs in college.  I thought that he must have had some grand plan for the WR corps.  Its turning out that he probably didn't and was simply looking to maximize the W/L record that next season.  

[shasta519]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

I always give Ballard the benefit of the doubt on draft day.  I didn't think to double up (if he was a genius he would have).  But I was pretty disappointed to angry when he passed on Deebo (and he was taken two picks later...obviously proper value there) and when passed on Brown.   I reevaluated my anger after he took Campbell and said "Okay, he got the slot guy to go with TY and Funchess this year, so I can see what he's doing".

 

But it bothered me that he drafted so much for the immediate season, having addressed the long vacant X WR position by signing Funchess to a one year contract.  You know, secure the X for one season...that doesn't keep you from drafting a long term X when one is sitting their for the picking....especially an athletic X like Deebo.  I thought that he must have had some grand plan for the WR corps.  Its turning out that he probably didn't and was simply looking to maximize the W/L record that next season.  

 

Right. Funchess' one-year deal should have had no bearing on how they valued different types of WRs. But I am guessing it did.

 

Of course the fact that they signed a big, slow X in Funchess was an early clue that the WR evaluation is off. Pittman looks like the outlier at this point.

[DougDew]

49 minutes ago, chad72 said:

but I wonder if they still draft Paye and Dayo in 2021. I doubt it, which would have really opened up that draft beyond the DL.

 

True on the bolded part.

 

Both Josh Sweat and Carson Wentz, if they play pivotal roles and the Commanders win, lots of egg on lots of faces. For the Colts sake, I hope that doesn't happen, it sure would be demoralizing for me as a fan.

And McLaurin, who would have been the long term X taken at a time when we needed one.  That would have then changed the Pittman pick to another player.

 

And if we didn't draft Paye, we would have drafted Darrisaw...LT. ( I think he's doing okay for MIN).

 

Yep. many ramifications from that foiled 2019 draft.   It was sort of a waste of the capital received from the trade down for Nelson....which itself is looking less shiny at the moment.

[chad72]

10 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Right. Funchess' one-year deal should have had no bearing on how they valued different types of WRs. But I am guessing it did.

 

Of course the fact that they signed a big, slow X in Funchess was an early clue that the WR evaluation is off. Pittman looks like the outlier at this point.

 

I am thinking so too. He said sometimes you get lucky when asked about if he ever thought JT would be this good on radio. I wonder if it did cross his mind that there is merit to getting a player with production from a good FBS college on top of their RAS scores. When Paye's name was brought up to Polian in a radio interview, he said he has good athletic attributes but his production in college wasn't proportional to his athletic abilities, and in so many words, Polian would probably not have drafted him in Round 1, a safe assumption on my part (though some GM like Ballard would have).

 

Ever wonder why Ravens draft a lot of players that become expensive free agents, and their list of draft picks are recognizable for those who follow good FBS programs? When you pick from a productive FBS pool instead of trying to be the smartest in the room, there is safety in numbers in that pool, IMO.

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

I am thinking so too. He said sometimes you get lucky when asked about if he ever thought JT would be this good on radio. I wonder if it did cross his mind that there is merit to getting a player with production from a good FBS college on top of their RAS scores. When Paye's name was brought up to Polian in a radio interview, he said he has good athletic attributes but his production in college wasn't proportional to his athletic abilities, and in so many words, Polian would probably not have drafted him in Round 1, a safe assumption on my part (though some GM like Ballard would have).

 

Ever wonder why Ravens draft a lot of players that become expensive free agents, and their list of draft picks are recognizable for those who follow good FBS programs? When you pick from a productive FBS pool instead of trying to be the smartest in the room, there is safety in numbers in that pool, IMO.

Most of the best players in the league produced at the collegiate level. That’s a good point. We’ve drafted a lot of guys with upside betting on their potential to develop into better players in the league. Hasn’t worked out for us most of the time.

[chad72]

17 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Most of the best players in the league produced at the collegiate level. That’s a good point. We’ve drafted a lot of guys with upside betting on their potential to develop into better players in the league. Hasn’t worked out for us most of the time.

 

That is also why Polian drafted players like Robert Mathis from Alabama A & M in Round 4 and Antoine Bethea from Howard in Round 6 because they jumped out with their athletic attributes and production from lower schools. While they made Polian's cut for measurables, they didn't make it all the way up the board because of the schools their production came against, that Polian would hinge his GM future or the Colts' football future by getting Mathis in Round 2 (though people would have accepted it after several years) or Bethea in Round 3.

 

T.Y. Hilton from Florida International, because of what he did vs Alabama in a game, stood out to Arians and company that they wanted him badly enough for us to move up in the draft in Round 3. Production against quality FBS competition matters for evaluation, 100%.

[Blueblazes]

On 9/21/2022 at 9:40 PM, AwesomeAustin said:

Does it go the other way as well?  We could have drafted Andy Isabella who has been a mainstay as an inactive for the Cardinals. Does that add to the grade?  

 

Nope, when you make a huge mistake at work, try telling that to your boss, "hey boss I could have made a million dollar mistake instead of a half million dollar mistake." And actually it's even bigger money at stake in the NFL despite them playing a game and not life.