Draft Question

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

So after the press conference from Ballard I have a serious thought. I really believe that he will not reach for a QB and that he is putting pressure on JB. I think he brings in a mid round guy and let’s him and Chad Kelly press JB in camp. It will only make him better. I think he really wants him to succeed but will not tank the franchise over JB. 
 

So my question is this...

 

let’s assume that Ballard is not trading up from 13 and that he stays pat at 34. If the following players are available, who does he take. This is based on a lot of mocks I have seen of possible players/combined with whom I think are realistic (no Jerry Jeudy, Derrick Brown, Tua, Herbert)

[MPStack]

I don’t see a scenario with him trading down only up. And that’s one position and one only, being QB. 
 

Will it happen? I think so!
 

 

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

6 minutes ago, MPStack said:

I don’t see a scenario with him trading down only up. And that’s one position and one only, being QB. 
 

Will it happen? I think so!
 

 

Sorry for confusion. I’m not saying he trades down. I’m asking if he stays at 13 and doesn’t trade back into first round. Sorry for confusion. 

[MPStack]

Just now, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

Sorry for confusion. I’m not saying he trades down. I’m asking if he stays at 13 and doesn’t trade back into first round. Sorry for confusion. 

My fault!

 

If, they pick at 13, there absolutely a possibility getting back in the 1st with those two 2nd picks. I’d be all for that for the right player. Washington did it last year trading with Colts. 
 

 

 

[boo2202]

How far could we move up back into the first round, if we packaged 34th and 45th picks?

[MPStack]

2 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

How far could we move up back into the first round, if we packaged 34th and 45th picks?

Best guess, 25-28 range. Maybe, but I think I’m close. 

[CheezyColt]

Original Model:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=ind

 

More recent, revised model (looks like it includes premium for the first few picks in the draft)

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp?RequestTeam=ind

[WarGhost21]

Has to be Lamb of those options. We can grab Eason or another QB round two, because that is much, much better value than reaching for a QB like Love at 13. Love isn’t worth the 13th. He’s a fringe first round talent, not 13. Kinlaw, depending on the combine, might be there in the 2nd if he does poorly, but if he does well he’s my second option, followed by Esperanza and Gross-Metos

[Four2itus]

Kinlaw is a choice and not Brown?

[FalseStart]

I believe his name is Epenesa... Need an OT option there too...

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 hours ago, WarGhost21 said:

Has to be Lamb of those options. We can grab Eason or another QB round two, because that is much, much better value than reaching for a QB like Love at 13. Love isn’t worth the 13th. He’s a fringe first round talent, not 13. Kinlaw, depending on the combine, might be there in the 2nd if he does poorly, but if he does well he’s my second option, followed by Esperanza and Gross-Metos

Fans think love isn’t worth that pick. Who knows what ballard thinks. No there might not be a QB to grab in round two. Mahomes sat a year and went number 10. Doesn’t matter if Love has to sit.

[EastStreet]

Not sure who or when, but I'd bet that we take a QB somewhere between 4 and 34.

Hoping we also take a DT as well in that same range.

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, boo2202 said:

How far could we move up back into the first round, if we packaged 34th and 45th picks?

 

3 hours ago, MPStack said:

Best guess, 25-28 range. Maybe, but I think I’m close. 

34+45=~16

 

https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I am hoping we get a very good DT in FA and can skip that in the first round. AC retiring changes everything.

[MPStack]

Just now, EastStreet said:

 

34+45=~16

 

https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php

So, did the skins make out better in the trade last season?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, MPStack said:

So, did the skins make out better in the trade last season?

I think it depends. What if that 34th pick turns into a franchise QB for us. That could mean taking a QB at 34 or packaging that pick to move up to get our franchise guy. If that pick turns into our next QB we won hands down.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, MPStack said:

So, did the skins make out better in the trade last season?

IIRC, we gave them our 26th pick, and got last year's 46th, and this year's 34th. 

34+46= exactly a 16th from a capital perspective.

 

So in short, we turned our 26th into a 16th, but with delayed value. Was that enough interest? I don't know, but it's an improvement of 10 spots. 

 

Personally, I'd rather that we taken a DT at 26 last year, or even moved up to get one.

 

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I think it depends. What if that 34th pick turns into a franchise QB for us. That could mean taking a QB at 34 or packaging that pick to move up to get our franchise guy. If that pick turns into our next QB we won hands down.

we're talking pure capital value, not hypothetical value.

[MPStack]

9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

IIRC, we gave them our 26th pick, and got last year's 46th, and this year's 34th. 

34+46= exactly a 16th from a capital perspective.

 

So in short, we turned our 26th into a 16th, but with delayed value. Was that enough interest? I don't know, but it's an improvement of 10 spots. 

 

Personally, I'd rather that we taken a DT at 26 last year, or even moved up to get one.

 

Yeah, Tillery was the only one available at that point though. I would’ve preferred Deebo, but I think Rock’s going to be alright. 

[Jeremy Waldon]

43 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Fans think love isn’t worth that pick. Who knows what ballard thinks. No there might not be a QB to grab in round two. Mahomes sat a year and went number 10. Doesn’t matter if Love has to sit.

Interesting take minus the Brady or Hmmm?

[boo2202]

35 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

34+45=~16

 

https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php

Thanks east for dropping some knowledge. That’s a big jump.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

11 minutes ago, Jeremy Waldon said:

Interesting take minus the Brady or Hmmm?

I watched that earlier. I agree about Love sitting a year. I just go ahead and play Jacoby next season.

[EastStreet]

22 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Yeah, Tillery was the only one available at that point though. I would’ve preferred Deebo, but I think Rock’s going to be alright. 

I would have probably gone DE at 26 with Sweat (nice year with WASH) instead of Banogu, and went D.Jones at DT in the second or third (nice year with Denver). I think our existing DBs would have looked better with those two honestly playing up front. I'm still glad we got Rock and Khari, but I'd take Sweat and Jones over them any day.

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I watched that earlier. I agree about Love sitting a year. I just go ahead and play Jacoby next season.

If he's going to learn from someone, I'd prefer him to learn from someone who's good. JB is deficient in too many ways and Love is simply not going to learn a lot. Him learning from Brady was the guy's primary point.

 

I'd rather them bring in a mentor like Manning or Rivers if that was the strategy. I'd also say that with our OL and running game (not to mention coach), we're one of the only teams in the NFL where a rookie could start day one and be successful.

12 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

Thanks east for dropping some knowledge. That’s a big jump.

Yup, that's why I've been saying we could get both a QB and DT in round one if we want. Love + Kinlaw is not a crazy reach.

[Jeremy Waldon]

18 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I watched that earlier. I agree about Love sitting a year. I just go ahead and play Jacoby next season.

Yep and if JB isnt working and Love is looking good put him in cant hurt anything, at least thats my opinion 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

13 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

If he's going to learn from someone, I'd prefer him to learn from someone who's good. JB is deficient in too many ways and Love is simply not going to learn a lot. Him learning from Brady was the guy's primary point.

 

I'd rather them bring in a mentor like Manning or Rivers if that was the strategy. I'd also say that with our OL and running game (not to mention coach), we're one of the only teams in the NFL where a rookie could start day one and be successful.

Yup, that's why I've been saying we could get both a QB and DT in round one if we want. Love + Kinlaw is not a crazy reach.

Jacoby can show him how to be a leader. Its up to Reich and the QB coach to teach him what he needs to learn. Heck I would rather just start the rookie then getting Brady. Worst thing that happens we get another high draft pick next year and the rookie gets a lot of playing experience. A rookie could still beat out Brissett also in camp. I don’t think it has to be set in stone a rookie must sit. It’s just preferable. As long as we are competitive with a rookie that is all that we need. Upgrade defense and offense and who knows. Maybe a rookie like Love could do ok. I just don’t think you can risk losing your quarterback by waiting.  It has to be the first pick if that’s your guy. Tampa is right behind us. Kinlaw won’t last most likely.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

10 minutes ago, Jeremy Waldon said:

Yep and if JB isnt working and Love is looking good put him in cant hurt anything, at least thats my opinion 

Yep. Jacoby needs to work his butt off this off season. Give him a chance to increase his stock with another team. After 2 games if he looks bad you have the rookie right there. I don’t think there is anyway ballard brings in another bridge guy.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Jacoby can show him how to be a leader. Its up to Reich and the QB coach to teach him what he needs to learn. Heck I would rather just start the rookie then getting Brady. Worst thing that happens we get another high draft pick next year and the rookie gets a lot of playing experience. A rookie could still beat out Brissett also in camp. I don’t think it has to be set in stone a rookie must sit. It’s just preferable. As long as we are competitive with a rookie that is all that we need. Upgrade defense and offense and who knows. Maybe a rookie like Love could do ok. I just don’t think you can risk losing your quarterback by waiting.  It has to be the first pick if that’s your guy. Tampa is right behind us. Kinlaw won’t last most likely.

I'd take Kinlaw at 13, Love at 16 (trade 34+45 for 16).

Then I'd see if I could temp Eli or Rivers on a one or two year deal. If they bit, I'd cut Hoyer and JB. I'd let the vet mentor both Love and Swag.

[MPStack]

15 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

If he's going to learn from someone, I'd prefer him to learn from someone who's good. JB is deficient in too many ways and Love is simply not going to learn a lot. Him learning from Brady was the guy's primary point.

 

I'd rather them bring in a mentor like Manning or Rivers if that was the strategy. I'd also say that with our OL and running game (not to mention coach), we're one of the only teams in the NFL where a rookie could start day one and be successful.

Yup, that's why I've been saying we could get both a QB and DT in round one if we want. Love + Kinlaw is not a crazy reach.

 

Yeah, I don’t see the benefit of having Jacoby as some type of mentor. 1. He’s not a very good QB and 2. How’s Jacoby gonna handle being replaced. 
 

Rivers just makes so much sense to me, if they draft a guy for the future. JMO

[EastStreet]

Just now, MPStack said:

Yeah, I don’t see the benefit of having Jacoby as some type of mentor. 1. He’s not a very good QB and 2. How’s Jacoby gonna handle being replaced. 
 

Rivers just makes so much sense to me, if they draft a guy for the future. JMO

 

Given JB's reaction at the press conference, doubt he'd want to hang around and mentor anyone anyway. Regardless, I want a mentor that can teach FB skills first, leadership 2nd. JB is still lacking in too many FB skills. Hire Lou Holtz to come in and yell at him a few times a day for leadership training lol... 

 

I'd be perfectly fine with Rivers or Manning. Probably would prefer Manning as it might mean Peyton would visit the QB room a bit. Not sure how PM feels about Irsay now, but I think Eli would fit in just fine.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

19 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Given JB's reaction at the press conference, doubt he'd want to hang around and mentor anyone anyway. Regardless, I want a mentor that can teach FB skills first, leadership 2nd. JB is still lacking in too many FB skills. Hire Lou Holtz to come in and yell at him a few times a day for leadership training lol... 

 

I'd be perfectly fine with Rivers or Manning. Probably would prefer Manning as it might mean Peyton would visit the QB room a bit. Not sure how PM feels about Irsay now, but I think Eli would fit in just fine.

What press conference are you talking about?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

27 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'd take Kinlaw at 13, Love at 16 (trade 34+45 for 16).

Then I'd see if I could temp Eli or Rivers on a one or two year deal. If they bit, I'd cut Hoyer and JB. I'd let the vet mentor both Love and Swag.

That’s all well and good but Tampa is right behind us. Oakland has another pick also I believe right after us. Who is at 15 and 16? They would need a trade partner and would have to feel good no one will take him over try to move up also to 16.

[ty4atd]

Well my current draft boatd for Indy would be

1 Burrows

2 Tua

3 Herbert

4 Young 

5 Jeudy

6 Okuda

7 Brown

8 Espensa

9 Gross-Matos

10 Lamb

11 Adebo

12 Simons

13 Thomas (goes way up or down depending on ACs retirement) 

[MPStack]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

What press conference are you talking about?

Probably, when the reporter made the  “audition” comment to Jacoby.  

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

What press conference are you talking about?

The one where he got agitated when a reporter suggested he was on a prove it deal....

 

It's funny, because Ballard, in his press conference, kind of described JB's contract in that way too lol... 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Probably, when the reporter made the  “audition” comment to Jacoby.  

Hmm I don’t remember that. But I like that he doesn’t like the comment. That will make him work harder and that’s where competition  makes you better.

 

So a trade partner could be the falcons or even Denver. But then you hope that Tampa doesn’t take your guy. Falcons would be a interesting trade partner since this draft is loaded with WR and not much defense. They don’t need WR help.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

That’s all well and good but Tampa is right behind us. Oakland has another pick also I believe right after us. Who is at 15 and 16? They would need a trade partner and would have to feel good no one will take him over try to move up also to 16.

you worry to much lol....

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

you worry to much lol....

 

 

The draft really is a crap shoot. You never know what other teams will do. It will be amazing if we are able two use all three of those round one and two picks and get a QB, WR, and DT. Please AC don’t retire.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

The draft really is a crap shoot. You never know what other teams will do. It will be amazing if we are able two use all three of those round one and two picks and get a QB, WR, and DT. Please AC don’t retire.

I'd bet money AC doesn't retire. He's not going to turn down 12+M a year IMO... 

 

Also, I'd bet we don't draft a WR till R3 or later. There's too many good ones that will be available through round 4 to go hard after one in the 1st or 2nd when we have bigger needs.

 

All I want is a QB (Love or Herbert) and a DT out of the first 3 picks, and I'll be happy as a pig in sheet. I'd take a DT or Carr in FA as well, which would change my draft strategy a bit.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

23 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'd bet money AC doesn't retire. He's not going to turn down 12+M a year IMO... 

 

Also, I'd bet we don't draft a WR till R3 or later. There's too many good ones that will be available through round 4 to go hard after one in the 1st or 2nd when we have bigger needs.

 

All I want is a QB (Love or Herbert) and a DT out of the first 3 picks, and I'll be happy as a pig in sheet. I'd take a DT or Carr in FA as well, which would change my draft strategy a bit.

Here is what you have to remember about AC. He is like Luck. He doesn’t need football. He has already made 54 million dollars. I don’t think money will come into it at all.