Latest Mocks - Colts, plus look at QBs drafted + Poll

[Defjamz26]

4 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

I think there has been too much activity toward Love (Love toward Love ?  ) at QB from Colts FO, for them NOT to at least be consider a QB

 

Maybe they are checking the box, they had interest in others last year and decided not to 

draft

 

I am starting to think that there will be a QB drafted by the Colts in the first 3 pcks

 

I am also thinking that we will need our first round pick (around 18) to get Love, especially if he has an excellent combine..... Or a top QB if they slide....

 

Tua, to me is a huge risk. Supposedly he has an injury similar to Bo Jacksons........ Bo was never the same.    Tua MAY slide......

 

Mucho time before draft tho

Yes you’d have to take your QB in the first if you’re Ballard. The first reason being that other teams have QB needs as well. The other being that you’re going to want that 5th year option.

[FalseStart]

9 hours ago, stitches said:

You realize both of those are likely hall of famers, right? You seriously think Brissett is going to ever even approach Roethlisberger/Eli level? He's not close now.  I really don't want to be rude, but I cannot take this seriously. I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. 

They were not HOF in their first couple years as starting QB... And their TEAMS roster contributed to their career success... much to early to give an opinion on Brissett...IMO. If we don’t panic on the QB bait... We could really see another year of stacking our team with talent. Agree to disagree as well. We’re a 7-4 maybe 8-3 team with a healthy Brissett this year...that’s very respectable 

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, FalseStart said:

They were not HOF in their first couple years as starting QB... And their TEAMS roster contributed to their career success... much to early to give an opinion on Brissett...IMO. If we don’t panic on the QB bait... We could really see another year of stacking our team with talent. Agree to disagree as well. We’re a 7-4 maybe 8-5 team with a healthy Brissett this year...that’s very respectable 

Both Big Ben and Eli were highly rated coming out of college, and had pretty big pedigrees. Both first round picks, and had very good vision and polished skill sets coming in. BB was 13-0 and 9-3 in his first two seasons.... Manning was top 5 in his first full year, and had at least 3000 yards each season he started. Sure, they both improved in the early years and struggled a bit, but weren't challenged by the basics like we see at Indy. And JB is not a rookie. JB still has time to turn it around, but it needs to start Sunday.

[crazycolt1]

4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Both Big Ben and Eli were highly rated coming out of college, and had pretty big pedigrees. Both first round picks, and had very good vision and polished skill sets coming in. BB was 13-0 and 9-3 in his first two seasons.... Manning was top 5 in his first full year, and had at least 3000 yards each season he started. Sure, they both improved in the early years and struggled a bit, but weren't challenged by the basics like we see at Indy. And JB is not a rookie. JB still has time to turn it around, but it needs to start Sunday.

Manning, Big Ben and Eli had great receivers and a great running game when they started their careers. They all three also had top of the league defenses. 

Brissett has had TY. 

 

 

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Manning, Big Ben and Eli had great receivers and a great running game when they started their careers. They all three also had top of the league defenses. 

Brissett has had TY. 

JB inherited a #6 passing game from the previous year, a top 5 OL, a top 5 running game, and a top 10ish D.

 

Eli and BB had very nice college careers coming in, were more advanced coming in, started early, and didn't take long to take off. JB had a very mediocre college career with mediocre stats, in a weak conference, and was 3rd on the depth chart coming in. He was thrown into a 2017 season and led the Colts to their worst offensive ranking ever. He then got to sit behind Luck and learn the new O. Now back, we have a bottom 5 passing O... 

[crazycolt1]

6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

JB inherited a #6 passing game from the previous year, a top 5 OL, a top 5 running game, and a top 10ish D.

 

Eli and BB had very nice college careers coming in, were more advanced coming in, started early, and didn't take long to take off. JB had a very mediocre college career with mediocre stats, in a weak conference, and was 3rd on the depth chart coming in. He was thrown into a 2017 season and led the Colts to their worst offensive ranking ever. He then got to sit behind Luck and learn the new O. Now back, we have a bottom 5 passing O... 

You forget that Brissett has a head coach that is run first and is also very conservative. 

When he had a healthy team and the head coach opened up the game he delivered. 

Brissett is not near as bad as you make him out to be. 

Injuries has played a huge roll in the Colts not being what they are capable of being. 

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

I think the poll is very telling. Colts fans either love JB or hate him. There is no in between. He just need to ball out the remainder of this year and shut everyone up. 

[DougDew]

I wouldn't want to waste a pick in the first or second on a QB who I wasn't certain could outplay JB by mid rookie season (understanding that he will throw picks unlike JB, but "make up for it" by accumulating yardage and TD stats) as his floor, and who's play is mirroring the increasing trajectory I projected.  

 

If I'm picking a guy just because he has traits that I think I could develop into being something more than JB, there is too much risk of not getting return on my high pick investment.  

 

With the price tag that NFL GMs have been placing on high ceiling college QBs, potential franchise answers, I doubt that I could seriously get the QB I wanted with only one pick.

 

To me, the question is, in addition to our mid first round pick, how many other picks are you willing to trade to get the QB you want?

[hoosierhawk]

4 hours ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I think the poll is very telling. Colts fans either love JB or hate him. There is no in between. He just need to ball out the remainder of this year and shut everyone up. 

Love -hate seems quit strong. I think a poll would indicate some like him and others don't feel he is the future of our franchise. 

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

You forget that Brissett has a head coach that is run first and is also very conservative. 

When he had a healthy team and the head coach opened up the game he delivered. 

Brissett is not near as bad as you make him out to be. 

Injuries has played a huge roll in the Colts not being what they are capable of being. 

 

The bolded is simply not true and is just another apologist narrative.

Both his his history and own words prove it.

You get 4 Pinocchios

 

Frank Reich (as OC and HC)

2014 - Pass 574 vs Run 398 - 59% passing

2015 Pass 667 vs Run 393 - 63% passing

2016 Pass 609 Run 438 - 58% passing

2017 Pass 564 Run 473 (QB swap year) - 54% passing

2018 Pass 644  Run 408 - 61% passing

2019 Pass 351 Run 349 - 50% passing

 

Reich even said he wanted to be 60% this summer going into 2019.....

Quote

“It’s probably still 60-40 but you can still be a top-five rushing team running it,” Reich says. “Maybe it’s a little bit more than 40, maybe it’s 58-42, whatever the case may be. Ultimately, we want to have more four-minute offense this year than we did last year. So that’s always a big thing about being a top-five rushing team, being more four-minute offense at the end of games. That always helps those numbers as well.”

https://www.1075thefan.com/blogs/kevins-corner/colts-coverage/what-does-frank-reich-mean-his-run-game-focus-2019

 

You add in the fact that Reich didn't open the play book last week vs Houston is pretty telling given all the film on WRs and TEs running open all over the place vs their soft zone.

 

[Colts_Fan12]

6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

The bolded is simply not true and is just another apologist narrative.

Both his his history and own words prove it.

You get 4 Pinocchios

 

Frank Reich (as OC and HC)

2014 - Pass 574 vs Run 398 - 59% passing

2015 Pass 667 vs Run 393 - 63% passing

2016 Pass 609 Run 438 - 58% passing

2017 Pass 564 Run 473 (QB swap year) - 54% passing

2018 Pass 644  Run 408 - 61% passing

2019 Pass 351 Run 349 - 50% passing

 

Reich even said he wanted to be 60% this summer going into 2019.....

https://www.1075thefan.com/blogs/kevins-corner/colts-coverage/what-does-frank-reich-mean-his-run-game-focus-2019

 

You add in the fact that Reich didn't open the play book last week vs Houston is pretty telling given all the film on WRs and TEs running open all over the place vs their soft zone.

 

dude I dont know how you and a few others do it but the way you guys continue to argue this with the blind is truly impressive. you guys always bring hard evidence to back your claims and I respect the hell our of it.

[DougDew]

18 hours ago, FalseStart said:

They were not HOF in their first couple years as starting QB... And their TEAMS roster contributed to their career success... much to early to give an opinion on Brissett...IMO. If we don’t panic on the QB bait... We could really see another year of stacking our team with talent. Agree to disagree as well. We’re a 7-4 maybe 8-3 team with a healthy Brissett this year...that’s very respectable 

The most intelligent post on this forum in a number of weeks.

 

The QB play everybody wants won't come from a mid first or later round pick.   It comes from a higher pick we will have to trade up to get, IMO.

 

Even Mahomes and Lamar Jackson aren't doing what they are doing by themselves.  They have a team around them.

 

As you suggested, stack the team, then go all in on getting the QB later.  The team will be young enough to grow together, painfully at first with the rookie QB.  There should be plenty of cap space to re sign Kelly, Leonard, and Nelson and a couple of other pillars, assuming they emerge at some point, at the time the QB gets his sea legs.

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I think the poll is very telling. Colts fans either love JB or hate him. There is no in between. He just need to ball out the remainder of this year and shut everyone up. 

48% are ready to move on

31% happy or willing to give him another year

20% undecided

 

I wouldn't characterize it as either/or. It is turning out to be like that as the year goes along.

I agree he need to pick it up and prove folks wrong.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

The most intelligent post on this forum in a number of weeks.

 

The QB play everybody wants won't come from a mid first or later round pick.   It comes from a higher pick we will have to trade up to get, IMO.

Plenty of mid and later round picks do very very well. The favorite for MVP this year was the 32nd pick in the first round just a few years ago.... 

 

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

 

Even Mahomes and Lamar Jackson aren't doing what they are doing by themselves.  They have a team around them.

No QB does it by himself. JB has a very solid team around him, and he's not doing much.

 

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

 

As you suggested, stack the team, then go all in on getting the QB later.  The team will be young enough to grow together, painfully at first with the rookie QB.  There should be plenty of cap space to re sign Kelly, Leonard, and Nelson and a couple of other pillars, assuming they emerge at some point, at the time the QB gets his sea legs.

Baltimore drafted Jackson after the 2016 season when they were rated far worse than us in rushing (Indy 3rd vs Balt 28th), better than us in passing (Balt 12 vs Indy 29th) , and very close to the same D ranking (a total of 10 yards difference in total D).

 

So in short they didn't stack the team, then go after a QB later. They were actually better throwing it, had a far worse run game, and about the same total defense. They did the opposite of what you suggested and are arguably the best team in the NFL right now. At minimum they are among the 4 best, and squarely in SB contention.

 

another 

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

What don’t understand is why everyone is hell bent to make a determination on Brissett with 5 games left. If he plays well and we go 4-1 our record will be 10-6. Same as last year and we would have lost a generational talent 2 weeks before the season of say that earned him next year. 

[EastStreet]

2 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

dude I dont know how you and a few others do it but the way you guys continue to argue this with the blind is truly impressive. you guys always bring hard evidence to back your claims and I respect the hell our of it.

Most of the silly hot takes like this are easy to counter. It's the lazy anecdotal stuff by some that takes more work (like film / all22). 

 

The Reich being run first excuse has been discussed and debunked about 20 times already. Even @Chloe6124 has pointed out Reich's own comments a few times.

 

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Plenty of mid and later round picks do very very well. The favorite for MVP this year was the 32nd pick in the first round just a few years ago.... 

 

No QB does it by himself. JB has a very solid team around him, and he's not doing much.

 

Baltimore drafted Jackson after the 2016 season when they were rated far worse than us in rushing (Indy 3rd vs Balt 28th), better than us in passing (Balt 12 vs Indy 29th) , and very close to the same D ranking (a total of 10 yards difference in total D).

 

So in short they didn't stack the team, then go after a QB later. They were actually better throwing it, had a far worse run game, and about the same total defense. They did the opposite of what you suggested and are arguably the best team in the NFL right now. At minimum they are among the 4 best, and squarely in SB contention.

 

another 

LOL.  Always debating.  Now meme's.  Okay tech/stat-boy, I get your mindset.  

 

Its irrelevant that Jackson was picked 32nd.  That's a historical stat, meaning its only useful to ask a question.  It can't be used under the assumption it will repeat in the future. Thinking it can simply be repeated, as a draft strategy, just plain dumb.  

 

GMs don't go into a draft thinking they can get an MVP QB at pick 32.  Because its worked out in the past, doesn't change the fact that if any GM thinks a college QB will be the next MVP in a few years, they are not going to let another GM take the QB.

 

When they wait past pick 15 to pick a QB, they do it because they see traits that CAN be developed.  They don't KNOW if they will be developed or not.  The more their is risk of failure, the longer the QB lasts on the board.  Some GMs get lucky and the QB blossoms.

 

Saying, at week 8, the Colts would be better off deciding that JB is not the future and should be replaced by Jordan Love at pick 37 is a really stupid idea.  If Love actually is viewed as the next MVP, he'll be gone by pick 14.

 

If he's not viewed as the next MVP, taken later than pick 15, but works out being the next MVP, its just plain lucky.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

What don’t understand is why everyone is hell bent to make a determination on Brissett with 5 games left. If he plays well and we go 4-1 our record will be 10-6. Same as last year and we would have lost a generational talent 2 weeks before the season of say that earned him next year. 

My "determination" is more against bad hot takes and blaming other units and individuals for poor passing performance.

 

I haven't made a determination yet. I've been clear all year first half of the season was for mistakes, 2nd half to show sustained improvement and consistency. 

 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

LOL.  Always debating.  Now meme's.  Okay tech/stat-boy, I get your mindset.  

 

Its irrelevant that Jackson was picked 32nd.  That's a historical stat, meaning its only useful to ask a question.  It can't be used under the assumption it will repeat in the future. Thinking it can simply be repeated, as a draft strategy, just plain dumb.  

 

GMs don't go into a draft thinking they can get an MVP QB at pick 32.  Because its worked out in the past, doesn't change the fact that if any GM thinks a college QB will be the next MVP in a few years, they are not going to let another GM take the QB.

 

When they wait past pick 15 to pick a QB, they do it because they see traits that CAN be developed.  They don't KNOW if they will be developed or not.  The more their is risk of failure, the longer the QB lasts on the board.  Some GMs get lucky and the QB blossoms.

 

Saying, at week 8, the Colts would be better off deciding that JB is not the future and should be replaced by Jordan Love at pick 37 is a really stupid idea.  If Love actually is viewed as the next MVP, he'll be gone by pick 14.

 

If he's not viewed as the next MVP, taken later than pick 15, but works out being the next MVP, its just plain lucky.

So your hot take was clearly wrong in one post, and now you're trying to explain that while being wrong, there's a great reason why you were wrong. If anything, your predictable lol.

 

And you're saying Baltimore wasn't really trying. They just lucked into a guy that had traits that could be developed... The history of the NFL is filled with early round busts, and later guys that proved to be great. 

 

History (34 years) clearly shows the first two rounds have almost identical approximate value in the first five years when it comes to QB. Graph below. You're pretty predictable, so I'm sure you'll argue with 34 years of simple data....

 

Anyway, I really hope the Colts luck out late 1st round too lol. 

 

[crazycolt1]

12 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

My "determination" is more against bad hot takes and blaming other units and individuals for poor passing performance.

 

I haven't made a determination yet. I've been clear all year first half of the season was for mistakes, 2nd half to show sustained improvement and consistency. 

 

Frank opened up the passing game in the Jax game and Brissett did very well.

Then Brissett gets hurt at the same time TY goes down. Then we find out that Ebron has been injured. 

Brissett is playing without his 3 top receivers (TY on a snap count and now out)

These are not 'hot takes', these are facts. 

Add the fact Brissett himself being hurt but don't let that get in the way of your agenda of blaming Brissett on the Colts woes. 

[Thunderbolt]

TOP PRIORITY: (1.) Get a QB,  (2.) Get Top 3 RB, then focus on the defense.

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Frank opened up the passing game in the Jax game and Brissett did very well.

Then Brissett gets hurt at the same time TY goes down. Then we find out that Ebron has been injured. 

Brissett is playing without his 3 top receivers (TY on a snap count and now out)

These are not 'hot takes', these are facts. 

Add the fact Brissett himself being hurt but don't let that get in the way of your agenda of blaming Brissett on the Colts woes. 

 

Brissett didn't break 150 yards passing in the Jax game. We did have almost 250 rushing yards though. He had 1 TD and 1INT with a QBR of 50ish.... You call that "very well" ?

 

This is another bad hot take.

[DougDew]

59 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

So your hot take was clearly wrong in one post, and now you're trying to explain that while being wrong, there's a great reason why you were wrong. If anything, your predictable lol.

 

And you're saying Baltimore wasn't really trying. They just lucked into a guy that had traits that could be developed... The history of the NFL is filled with early round busts, and later guys that proved to be great. 

 

History (34 years) clearly shows the first two rounds have almost identical approximate value in the first five years when it comes to QB. Graph below. You're pretty predictable, so I'm sure you'll argue with 34 years of simple data....

 

Anyway, I really hope the Colts luck out late 1st round too lol. 

 

 

Wrong about what?

 

If BALT thought Lamar Jackson was going to be an MVP candidate at the time of that draft, and, more than just a flash in the pan MVP candidate for one year...yet to be seen...they would have traded more picks to move up more slots, not wanting to risk the chance that another team would see the same probability that he was going to be an MVP candidate and take him before pick 31.

 

History (34 years) clearly shows the first two rounds have almost identical approximate value in the first five years when it comes to QB. Graph below. You're pretty predictable, so I'm sure you'll argue with 34 years of simple data....

 

I'm going to have to use a quote from a famous movie.  "Why are you being so obtuse, is it deliberate?"

 

I'm not arguing what the historical data says about historical performances about past QBs, if its complied accurately.  I'm arguing about how it can be used to make a decision today.  If you can't use it, why bother compiling it?

 

To use it, it needs to help you answer this question.  What college QB this year that will be available to be drafted in the second round will perform equally like a QB drafted in the first round? 

 

Which QB will be like Lamar Jackson or Mahomes, and why won't another GM, or 31 of them, see what you see or simply pass on taking him?

 

How do you know that second round pick won't be one of the guys who washes out like many first round picks have done in the past?  How do you know he won't be one of those stats?

 

You have to pick the right QB, and avoid picking the wrong QB. 

 

You have to make a decision at the time.  How does your stat help you pick the right name, and how does it help you to know whether or not he wont be one of the future wash out stats?

 

Nobody does.  You trade up as far as you have to, to take the ability or potential you see.  If its high ability and/or potential, you have to assume that every other GM sees it too. 

 

Its illogical to assume that Jordan Love will be our next franchise QB and that we can get him in round two.  If both happen, we got lucky.

 

[EastStreet]

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 

Wrong about what?

You were incorrect about

1. QBs taken mid or late 1st round don't give QB play that teams are looking for. Historical and recent evidence directly counters this.

2. You should stack a team and then get a QB. Baltimore did just the opposite as many have. Despite the obvious factor that the more stacked a team is, the worse their draft position is (requiring them to mortgage their draft capital future), most teams just don't do that. 

 

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

If BALT thought Lamar Jackson was going to be an MVP candidate at the time of that draft, and, more than just a flash in the pan MVP candidate for one year...yet to be seen...they would have traded more picks to move up more slots, not wanting to risk the chance that another team would see the same probability that he was going to be an MVP candidate and take him before pick 31.

Baltimore clearly looked at him as best player available when they drafted him. Why move up if they thought he would be available. Why act desperate if you're confident in your draft team's prediction of availability. They actually had the 16th pick of the draft, and moved back. They also had the 25th and took a TE before taking a QB with 32. I get it, you disagree with how they did it, but they did it nonetheless, using the opposite strategy you suggest.

 

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

History (34 years) clearly shows the first two rounds have almost identical approximate value in the first five years when it comes to QB. Graph below. You're pretty predictable, so I'm sure you'll argue with 34 years of simple data....

 

I'm going to have to use a quote from a famous movie.  "Why are you being so obtuse, is it deliberate?"

 

I'm not arguing what the historical data says about historical performances about past QBs, if its complied accurately.  I'm arguing about how it can be used to make a decision today.  If you can't use it, why bother compiling it?

 

To use it, it needs to help you answer this question.  What college QB this year that will be available to be drafted in the second round will perform equally like a QB drafted in the first round? 

The data answers several questions. Do I get more value out of and early first round, vs later 1st round, or even second...  The answer to that is clearly no. 

 

In a 25 year sample, QB is the worst position to draft first if you expect an "All Pro" type QB (only 5.3%). It does have a much better PB rate though but clearly in the middle (position wise) with of +/-5 % of the mean.

1st round QBs also have the second highest bust rate at 40%. The only higher bust rate is RB.... These are simply historical counts, no analytics or "voodoo".

 

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Which QB will be like Lamar Jackson or Mahomes, and why won't another GM, or 31 of them, see what you see or simply pass on taking him?

Which LB will the next Darius Leonard? Ballard did a good job at grading him, and taking him while not moving up... 

 

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

How do you know that second round pick won't be one of the guys who washes out like many first round picks have done in the past?  How do you know he won't be one of those stats?

You don't know. 40% of all QBs taken in the 1st are busts. You scout, grade, anticipate availability, and draft.

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

You have to pick the right QB, and avoid picking the wrong QB. 

 

You have to make a decision at the time.  How does your stat help you pick the right name, and how does it help you to know whether or not he wont be one of the future wash out stats?

History tells you historically the values, bust rates, and success rates of different rounds. If you think Ballard and every other GM simply ignores that, not sure what to say. You use the information in you decision process and draft strategy. What if Ballard see Love as the right guy, isn't willing to mortgage the future on a Borrow, sees Love being available late 1st or early 2nd.... 

 

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Nobody does.  You trade up as far as you have to, to take the ability or potential you see.  If its high ability and/or potential, you have to assume that every other GM sees it too. 

Baltimore didn't. They traded back from 16, and actually passed on him at 25 too. 

 

32 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Its illogical to assume that Jordan Love will be our next franchise QB and that we can get him in round two.  If both happen, we got lucky.

Well we know Ballard has been watching him closely for a good while. We know rumors started back in the summer about his interest. We know Ballard was credentialed last week, even though the optics would be terrible for JB. Currently we see Love going later 1st or 2nd in most mock drafts (I think his stock will improve)... So we might get lucky with a perfect storm..

[DougDew]

50 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

You were incorrect about

1. QBs taken mid or late 1st round don't give QB play that teams are looking for. Historical and recent evidence directly counters this.

2. You should stack a team and then get a QB. Baltimore did just the opposite as many have. Despite the obvious factor that the more stacked a team is, the worse their draft position is (requiring them to mortgage their draft capital future), most teams just don't do that. 

 

Baltimore clearly looked at him as best player available when they drafted him. Why move up if they thought he would be available. Why act desperate if you're confident in your draft team's prediction of availability. They actually had the 16th pick of the draft, and moved back. They also had the 25th and took a TE before taking a QB with 32. I get it, you disagree with how they did it, but they did it nonetheless, using the opposite strategy you suggest.

 

The data answers several questions. Do I get more value out of and early first round, vs later 1st round, or even second...  The answer to that is clearly no. 

 

In a 25 year sample, QB is the worst position to draft first if you expect an "All Pro" type QB (only 5.3%). It does have a much better PB rate though but clearly in the middle (position wise) with of +/-5 % of the mean.

1st round QBs also have the second highest bust rate at 40%. The only higher bust rate is RB.... These are simply historical counts, no analytics or "voodoo".

 

Which LB will the next Darius Leonard? Ballard did a good job at grading him, and taking him while not moving up... 

 

You don't know. 40% of all QBs taken in the 1st are busts. You scout, grade, anticipate availability, and draft.

History tells you historically the values, bust rates, and success rates of different rounds. If you think Ballard and every other GM simply ignores that, not sure what to say. You use the information in you decision process and draft strategy. What if Ballard see Love as the right guy, isn't willing to mortgage the future on a Borrow, sees Love being available late 1st or early 2nd.... 

 

Baltimore didn't. They traded back from 16, and actually passed on him at 25 too. 

 

Well we know Ballard has been watching him closely for a good while. We know rumors started back in the summer about his interest. We know Ballard was credentialed last week, even though the optics would be terrible for JB. Currently we see Love going later 1st or 2nd in most mock drafts (I think his stock will improve)... So we might get lucky with a perfect storm..

The data does not answer which 1st round QB will bust and which won't.  It doesn't answer if any drafted this year will bust or not, nor does it answer which 2nd round pre-draft quality QB will perform like a pre-draft 1st round quality QB, and which one won't.  Historical draft slot stats don't tell us who the next Leonard will be, which is what I want to know before I start picking in the second round. 

 

Its obvious you and I would think about stats differently.

 

As an aside, If BALT dropped from 16 to 32 to take Lamar, it is probably because they felt no other team felt he had the traits to be a franchise QB, but, that he could perform well or good enough in their system because their system is one that has historically emphasized defense and running game more than other teams (especially after their Flacco debacle).  They probably figured a team with the make up and roster of a Colts or a Packers or a NE, etc....just about every other NFL team, wasn't going to take him in the first round so there was no need for them to take him at 16.  But they wanted to take him in the first to get the fifth year option and another year with which to develop.  Historical stats about the performance of other QBs on other teams in the past would have had no bearing on the decision about where to take Jackson.

 

Again, if you're telling me that we can make a pick 37 investment in a QB who we think might be better than JB with a reasonable risk he will bust, that's one decision, IMO.  If we're saying that we need to get a guy who we think its very likely he will be better than JB with very little risk of bust, IMO, he won't be around at pick 37 and we will need to be prepared to trade up, probably up even from our 1st round pick.  That's not the same decision because it involves a different level of commitment.  

 

We will likely find out how Ballard covets the current crop of college QBs relative to what he has in JB, or thinks he has given a more stable team, come spring.  I'm in no position to criticize his evaluations of QBs.

 

[crazycolt1]

On 11/29/2019 at 4:43 PM, EastStreet said:

My "determination" is more against bad hot takes and blaming other units and individuals for poor passing performance.

 

I haven't made a determination yet. I've been clear all year first half of the season was for mistakes, 2nd half to show sustained improvement and consistency. 

 

As always, you fail at looking at the reason Brissett has had what you call poor passing performance. 

Once again- down the teams top 3 receivers. Ebron being injured all season. Brissett himself being injured. 

If those are not enough reasons I don't know what to tell you. 

This last game when Brissett did open up the pass game two penalties and two dropped passes negated them. Then a beautiful defensive play stopped other one. 

 

[EastStreet]

21 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

As always, you fail at looking at the reason Brissett has had what you call poor passing performance. 

Once again- down the teams top 3 receivers. Ebron being injured all season. Brissett himself being injured. 

If those are not enough reasons I don't know what to tell you. 

This last game when Brissett did open up the pass game two penalties and two dropped passes negated them. Then a beautiful defensive play stopped other one. 

Bad vision, inability to read Ds, not seeing the blitz tells, lack of touch, lack of anticipation/timing, deep ball woes, and high time to throw, are all things that we've see all year long.

 

With all the film last week showing multiple targets open most plays, hard for me to take any of the injury excuse seriously. You can have 3 healthy Julio Jones on the field and open, but they don't do you any good unless you see and hit the open WR or TE.....

 

And top 3 "all year" isn't accurate to begin with. The starters to begin the season were TY/Funch/Rogers/Doyle/Ebron. Last year the starters were  TY/Grant/Rogers/Doyle/Ebron. Last year we lost Doyle, this year we lost Ebron. Last year we lost Grant for a spell and he was never the same (he wasn't great to begin with), with Inman and Pascal more or less replacing him. This year Funch never made a contribution, and we're falling back to Pascal again. Last year we expected Cain to do something like we expected Campbell to do something this year.... Campbell actually has done more this year.

[GoColts8818]

I think most of the people doing these mock drafts don’t think the Colts are in the market for a QB.  Time will tell with Ballard but I think they should be.

[GoColts8818]

On 11/29/2019 at 4:59 PM, Thunderbolt said:

TOP PRIORITY: (1.) Get a QB,  (2.) Get Top 3 RB, then focus on the defense.

They have focused on the defense the past three years.  It might need some tweaking but it’s not in bad shape.  It’s young and should keep getting better.  They really need to hit the offensive weapons in this draft.  The Colts haven’t really addressed those in a major way outside of Campbell the past few years.  Yes they took some WRs and RBs late but I don’t think they were expected to be key players.  

 

The running game isn’t the problem on offense.  It’s the passing game.  That’s where the focus needs to go.