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Sucking it up, Colts batting order update (Week 15 edition)


BlueShoe

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Updated to reflect the results of the early games.

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The Indianapolis Colts will finish week 15 batting 3rd in the 2018 NFL Draft.

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Unfortunately, aĀ 5-11 record is the best the Colts can boast inĀ 2017. Therefore, the worst draft pick the Colts can finish with is #10 (changed from #11 afterĀ Redskins win). The Colts are out-of-the-running for the #1 overall pick.Ā Cleveland's loss today eliminated the Colts from any chance of picking first in 2018. However,Ā it's still very possible for the Colts to end up with the #2 overall pick.

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Indianapolis Colts:

Week 16: Colts at Ravens

Week 17 Texans at Colts

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New York Giants:

Week 16: Giants at Cardinals

Week 17: Redskins atĀ Giants

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Cleveland Browns:

Week 16: Browns at Bears

Week 17: Browns at Steelers

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If the Colts split the last two games, and finish the season at 4-12, then the worst draft pick the Colts could end up with is #7. That said, if theĀ Colts finish with a 4-12 record then realistically theyĀ would earnĀ the #5 pick.

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UPDATE: Giants lose to Eagles 29 to 34, and retain the #2 overall pick.Ā 

Only 1 game can possibly influence the Colts draft status in week 15. The New York Giants are hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. While itā€™s not likely the Giants will pull off the upset, last week the Eagles lost their starting quarterback for the season. The Eagles also have the division wrapped up, so as the game goes on thenĀ maybe they decide to sit players, and getĀ their backups some work. This is also the NFC East we are talking about, and those divisional games are never a given. These dynamics strengthen the possibility of a Giants win from ā€œnot a snowballs chanceā€ to ā€œanything is possibleā€.

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As we all know our Colts have already lost this week (on Thursday) to the Denver Broncos. There is no danger of any (week 15) outcome costing the Colts the #3 draft spot. San Francisco (the only other 3-win team), will finishĀ the day with a betterĀ strength of schedule than the Colts (.493). The 49ers play the 8-5 Tennessee Titans. Consequently, the 49ers (.514) strength of schedule is going to become stronger (not weaker).

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Games of note for Week 15:

Ravens at Browns

Eagles at Giants

Titans at 49ers

Texans at Jaguars

Falcons at Buccaneers (Monday)

Bengals at Vikings

Jets at Saints

Cardinals at Redskins

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Current Sucking It Up Standings:

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PICK TEAM WINS LOSSES GAMES WIN% SOS
1
Cleveland
0 14 14 0.000 0.520
2
NY Giants
2 12 14 0.143 0.525
3
Indianapolis
3 11 14 0.214 0.491
4
San Francisco
3 10 13 0.231 0.514
5
Houston (CLE)
4 10 14 0.286 0.507
6
Chicago
4 10 14 0.286 0.559
7
Tampa Bay
4 9 13 0.308 0.557
8
Cincinnati
5 9 14 0.357 0.480
9
Denver
5 9 14 0.357 0.482
10
NY Jets
5 9 14 0.357 0.530
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I donā€™t know why anyone is concerned about the finish. Ā The Browns and Giants will most likely take QBs so that leaves a wealth of players to select from. Ā Choosing 3rd to 5th isnā€™t going to make much of a difference. Ā 

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Personally, Iā€™d love to trade the pick for more picks. Ā But to me, the draft needs wonā€™t be known until after free agency. Ā 

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3 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I donā€™t know why anyone is concerned about the finish. Ā The Browns and Giants will most likely take QBs so that leaves a wealth of players to select from. Ā Choosing 3rd to 5th isnā€™t going to make much of a difference. Ā 

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Personally, Iā€™d love to trade the pick for more picks. Ā But to me, the draft needs wonā€™t be known until after free agency. Ā 

Problem is..... you gotta find a partner to trade with and really, there's not many players if any worth trading up for.Ā 

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5 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I donā€™t know why anyone is concerned about the finish. Ā The Browns and Giants will most likely take QBs so that leaves a wealth of players to select from. Ā Choosing 3rd to 5th isnā€™t going to make much of a difference. Ā 

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Personally, Iā€™d love to trade the pick for more picks. Ā But to me, the draft needs wonā€™t be known until after free agency. Ā 

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If we get the #2 spot then it opens a huge bidding door for a lot of possible trades. Not saying we can't trade from out of 3, 4, or 5, but that #2 spot will beĀ lucrative.

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1 minute ago, csmopar said:

Problem is..... you gotta find a partner to trade with and really, there's not many players if any worth trading up for.Ā 

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Agreed. Ā Itā€™s easy to,say ā€œtrade the pickā€, but two of the most QB hungry teams will probably pick before us. Ā And then thereā€™s the issue of what QBs are worthy. Ā But who thought the Bears would do what they did this year for MT?

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So, other QB hungry teams? Ā Bills, Broncos, Jets, Chargers, Skins, Zona, in no particular order? Ā Would any of those teams want to move up, and for who?

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7 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I donā€™t know why anyone is concerned about the finish. Ā The Browns and Giants will most likely take QBs so that leaves a wealth of players to select from. Ā Choosing 3rd to 5th isnā€™t going to make much of a difference. Ā 

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Personally, Iā€™d love to trade the pick for more picks. Ā But to me, the draft needs wonā€™t be known until after free agency. Ā 

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The difference is that Darnold and Rosen are a cut above any other possible QB.

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So if we somehow manage to get the 2nd pick, if we could command a much higher return of draft picks.Ā 

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But if we are third and someone wants either another QB or Chubb or Barkley the return won't be quite so much. Ā Ā 

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4 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

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Not a problem at all. If we stay at #2 then it will be a bidding war.Ā 

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Say the Browns take the most coveted QB (whoever that is), and we have 2. Ā Why would a team trade for our pick? Ā Why not call our bluff and trade for the third?

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6 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

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If we get the #2 spot then it opens a huge bidding door for a lot of possible trades. Not saying we can't trade from out of 3, 4, or 5, but that #2 spot will beĀ lucrative.

I agee but look at the teams that will most likely be looking for a QB.... Ā 

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CardinalsĀ 

BrownsĀ 

GiantsĀ 

JetsĀ 

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Then I considered these teams as well due to aging QB'sĀ 

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Chargers

Pittsburgh

Vikings. Ā Due to never being healthyĀ 

Jacksonville. Ā If Bortles doesnt seem like the futureĀ 

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So it is possible we would get a lot of interest. Ā  Of course we need the Giants to win and us lose outĀ 

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Just now, Smonroe said:

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Say the Browns take the most coveted QB (whoever that is), and we have 2. Ā Why would a team trade for our pick? Ā Why not call our bluff and trade for the third?

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This is not your first rodeo. :)

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If the Colts land the 2nd pick in the draft then they might as well have a public auction.Ā 

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1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

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This is not your first rodeo. :)

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If the Colts land the 2nd pick in the draft then they might as well have a public auction.Ā 

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You didnā€™t answer my question. Ā Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2. Ā Ā 

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At the end of the first quarter Giants lead the Eagles 13-7.

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Just saying....

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PHI Ā  NYG
First Downs 6 Ā  10
Total Yards 64 Ā  151
Passing Yards 32 Ā  132
Rushing Yards 32 Ā  19
Penalties (Yds) 2(9) Ā  3(47)
Turnovers 0 Ā  0
Punts (AVG) 0(0) Ā  0(0)
Time of *. 5:02 Ā  9:58
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8 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

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You didnā€™t answer my question. Ā Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2. Ā Ā 

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Why did the Bears worry about the 49ers taking (or trading with another team -Ā Trubisky)? It is just the way it is.Ā 

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Every team that covets a top-rated quarterback, is going to do whatever it takes to leapfrog other teams.Ā 

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If we end up with #2 overall, then we control the draft.Ā 

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4 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

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Say the Browns take the most coveted QB (whoever that is), and we have 2. Ā Why would a team trade for our pick? Ā Why not call our bluff and trade for the third?

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It would depend on if there are at leastĀ two teams that want a particular player. Ā If there are at least two teams, that by the time the draft comes around, that have a high grade on one of the other QBs then there could be a bidding war.Ā If not then there would be little reason to trade up.

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UPDATE!

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Eli Manning just threw another touchdown pass.

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Giants lead Eagles 20-7!

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Colts are in PRIME position to own the #2 draft spot at the end of today. Lots of football left to play; 13:44 left in the first half.Ā 

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PHI Ā  NYG
First Downs 6 Ā  12
Total Yards 64 Ā  226
Passing Yards 32 Ā  207
Rushing Yards 32 Ā  19
Penalties (Yds) 3(14) Ā  3(47)
Turnovers 0 Ā  0
Punts (AVG) 1(29) Ā  0(0)
Time of *. 5:15 Ā  11:01
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3 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

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You didnā€™t answer my question. Ā Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2. Ā Ā 

Assuming Luck is ready, they're not. They are however worried another team would make the trade with us.Ā  Wait until #3, and you could miss out.

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2 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

UPDATE!

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Eli Manning just threw another touchdown pass.

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Giants lead Eagles 20-7!

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Colts are in PRIME position to own the #2 draft spot at the end of today. Lots of football left to play; 13:44 left in the first half.Ā 

Yeah, they'll probably beat Houston, though.

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1 minute ago, #12. said:

Yeah, they'll probably beat Houston, though.

Not sure you've watched us, we look dead..

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We usually have about a solid quarter of football in us per game nowadays.

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I don't see us winning anymore.

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3 minutes ago, IinD said:

Not sure you've watched us, we look dead..

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We usually have about a solid quarter of football in us per game nowadays.

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I don't see us winning anymore.

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Agreed! I think it is getting hard for the players to buy into anything. Sure they are playing for pride, but it's not the same. They all have to know a house-cleaning is coming. It has to bother them. They're human.Ā 

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Just now, BlueShoe said:

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I think it is getting hard for the players to buy into anything. Sure they are playing for pride, but it's not the same. They all have to know a house-cleaning is coming. it has to bother them. They're human.Ā 

That's my thinking as well.

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We're way past then winning on effort and pride like we were earlier in the season.Ā 

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They looked like they packed it in last week.

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1 minute ago, #12. said:

No, unfortunately I've suffered through every moment.

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AĀ solid half might be enough to beat Houston.Ā  It didn't take much last time.

I just haven't seen anything that makes me think they'll win.

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Plus to many guys on IR at this point.

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I think if it's simply for pride that they'll still win. Colts players are searching for vacation packages after they get stomped next Saturday.

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19 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

At the end of the first quarter Giants lead the Eagles 13-7.

Ā 

Just saying....

Ā 

PHI Ā  NYG
First Downs 6 Ā  10
Total Yards 64 Ā  151
Passing Yards 32 Ā  132
Rushing Yards 32 Ā  19
Penalties (Yds) 2(9) Ā  3(47)
Turnovers 0 Ā  0
Punts (AVG) 0(0) Ā  0(0)
Time of *. 5:02 Ā  9:58

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31 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

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Not a problem at all. If we stay at #2 then it will be a bidding war.Ā 

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27 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

UPDATE:

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Giants Just scored on an Eli Manning touchdown pass, and now lead the Eagles 13 to 7, with 1:26 to go in the first quarter.

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The current Eagles at GiantsĀ score "tentatively" gives the Colts the #2 pick in the draft.Ā 

We don't have the number 2.... there's a LONG way to go in that game and still 2 more games.

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3 minutes ago, csmopar said:

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We don't have the number 2.... there's a LONG way to go in that game and still 2 more games.

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With the Giants leading the Eagles 20-7, we "tentatively" have the #2 pick RIGHT NOW!

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There is no grey in myĀ statement.Ā 

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Lots of things can happen, and many things can change the final outcome, but as of this moment in time the Colts have the #2 pick.Ā 

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