Starting Rookies

[jim scheurich]

Some people think its unheard of for a rookie to come in from college and be an effective nfl player. It happens each and every year. I think I recall we had 2 rookie lineman come to the call of duty last year and played pretty damn well. Young players are going to make mistakes, but the key is to learn for them. Get some help for Andrew and which-ever RB we have. DONT BE SCARED TO DRAFT O-LINE IN THE 1ST.

[SP_21]

That's not why people don't want offensive lineman in the 1st. We need a center and right guard which aren't a good value at 18. 

[jim scheurich]

5 minutes ago, SP_21 said:

That's not why people don't want offensive lineman in the 1st. We need a center and right guard which aren't a good value at 18. 

A need is a need; value is where u place it.

[COLTS449]

I'd rather address the OL in in free agency. I don't want to have to wait 2 years for a RT to develop when we could pick a defensive player to come in and contribute day 1. We can draft a guard like Garnett in the 2nd if we don't sign Osemele, Allen, Brooks, or Boone in FA. I know a lot of people disagree with me, but I'm totally against drafting a T early if you already have a good LT. Look at guys like Joekel, Greg Robinson, etc who come in and suck for a year or 2. Or even worse, End up being bust. I want now players. Guys who'll come in and be a beast from weak 1 on. And typically Guards do better earlier on than Tackles do. Every year you have 2-3-4 guards who come in and ball out right away, when Tackles are getting beat up.

[crazycolt1]

1 hour ago, SP_21 said:

That's not why people don't want offensive lineman in the 1st. We need a center and right guard which aren't a good value at 18. 

So controlling the line of scrimmage is not worth a first round pick?

[SP_21]

18 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

So controlling the line of scrimmage is not worth a first round pick?

Obviously that's not what I'm saying. Draft picks are a precious resource and getting the best value for each pick is how good teams are built. Centers and guards are not a good value in the 1st round. So you take a player of greater value first and then your guard and center later on. 

[Gavin]

I think you generally start your first round draft pick. The exception being if you have a vet in place whos got a year left on his contract or something along that line. With that said regardless if he starts or not I believe you stick with the bpa on your board

 

2ND/3RD round prospects I want to be able to contribute early on and have the ability to develop into a starter by year 4 of his rookie contract. Which don't mean I expect them to start by then but at least make enough progress from his rookie year that rhey could start and be successful if called upon

 

4-7 rounds. Backups that have long term potential

[crazycolt1]

Just now, SP_21 said:

Obviously that's not what I'm saying. Draft picks are a precious resource and getting the best value for each pick is how good teams are built. Centers and guards are not a good value in the 1st round. So you take a player of greater value first and then your guard and center later on. 

Who said centers and guards are not value picks in the first round? Alex Mack and Eric Wood were first round picks. Mack as of right now is worth a lot. Eric Wood just come off a pro bowl.

[SP_21]

4 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Who said centers and guards are not value picks in the first round? Alex Mack and Eric Wood were first round picks. Mack as of right now is worth a lot. Eric Wood just come off a pro bowl.

I'm sure there are plenty of guards and a few centers taken round one that are doing or have done well. I never said you ABSOLUTELY can't take a guard/center in the first but I don't think it's a good value and I don't see any interior lineman worthy of our first round selection. 

[Dustin]

8 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Who said centers and guards are not value picks in the first round? Alex Mack and Eric Wood were first round picks. Mack as of right now is worth a lot. Eric Wood just come off a pro bowl.

 

They're not bad value picks because they can't be good. They're bad value picks because there's little impact derived from having a pro-bowl center vs having an average center. 

[crazycolt1]

3 minutes ago, SP_21 said:

I'm sure there are plenty of guards and a few centers taken round one that are doing or have done well. I never said you ABSOLUTELY can't take a guard/center in the first but I don't think it's a good value and I don't see any interior lineman worthy of our first round selection. 

Maybe they should be with what they are responsible for.

[crazycolt1]

5 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

They're not bad value picks because they can't be good. They're bad value picks because there's little impact derived from having a pro-bowl center vs having an average center. 

Tell that to all the QBs including Luck in the league there is little impact. I don't buy that statement.

[Dustin]

Just now, crazycolt1 said:

Tell that to all the QBs including Luck in the league there is little impact. I don't buy that statement.

 

I'll tell that to the Browns and Bills neither of which have made the playoffs in years. 

[Gavin]

19 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Who said centers and guards are not value picks in the first round? Alex Mack and Eric Wood were first round picks. Mack as of right now is worth a lot. Eric Wood just come off a pro bowl.

In fairness that's using what those 2 players have become which I don't think anyone could make that case about O Linemen in particular prior to the draft. I think you might get further using the argument that most gushed about him as a 1st round draft pick

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, Dustin said:

 

I'll tell that to the Browns and Bills neither of which have made the playoffs in years. 

If that is all you can come with it's pretty lame. You may never hear a lot of things about a center till he messes up. He handles every snap including the shot gun snaps. Most call the offensive lines up matches. They protect the middle of pass rushes after snapping the ball. They run block after the snap. You may overlook the importance of a good center but I highly doubt any QB would buy your comment either. Games are won and lost by who controls the line of scrimmage and the center is the center piece.

[BOTT]

25 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Who said centers and guards are not value picks in the first round? Alex Mack and Eric Wood were first round picks. Mack as of right now is worth a lot. Eric Wood just come off a pro bowl.

 

Bill Polian

[Dustin]

Just now, crazycolt1 said:

If that is all you can come with it's pretty lame. You may never hear a lot of things about a center till he messes up. He handles every snap including the shot gun snaps. Most call the offensive lines up matches. They protect the middle of pass rushes after snapping the ball. They run block after the snap. You may overlook the importance of a good center but I highly doubt any QB would buy your comment either. Games are won and lost by who controls the line of scrimmage and the center is the center piece.

 

If that's the case explain to me why centers are the 2nd lowest paid position on offense and rarely taken in the first round.

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, BOTT said:

 

Bill Polian

If you take his word as gospel that's on you.

[crazycolt1]

4 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

If that's the case explain to me why centers are the 2nd lowest paid position on offense and rarely taken in the first round.

I don't need to explain anything to you. You have your opinion and I have mine. That's how these forums work.

[Dustin]

Just now, crazycolt1 said:

I don't need to explain anything to you. You have your opinion and I have mine. That's how these forums work.

 

I can defend mine that is the difference. You just run away when anyone challenges your opinion. 

[crazycolt1]

Just now, Dustin said:

 

I can defend mine that is the difference. You just run away when anyone challenges your opinion. 

You defend your opinion. I have already explained my opinion, sorry you missed it.

[Dustin]

Just now, crazycolt1 said:

You defend your opinion.

 

I already did. If centers are so valuable why are they one of the lowest paid positions in the NFL and why are they rarely taken in the first round?

 

You don't have to answer that question (i know you won't anyway) so I'll do it for you: because they aren't valuable. 

 

[BOTT]

11 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

If you take his word as gospel that's on you.

you asked a question and I answered.  I don't know how you turned that into me taking his word as gospel.

[crazycolt1]

Just now, BOTT said:

you asked a question and I answered.  I don't know how you turned that into me taking his word as gospel.

If you don't, that's cool. It's your choice.

[SaturdayAllDay]

My confusion is the notion that a defensive player will be any better in year one. Most people on here seem to be asking for pass rush in round one.  it's not like any of the OLBs in the last year have shined in their rookie season either.  They have shown glimpses of greatness, but in the last few years the average sack rate by 1st round rookies sits at about 4. We can get 4 sacks from Walden.... Saying that it takes a few years for o line to develop is pointless as pass rushers take just as long. Not that I am pushing for o line in particular,  it's just a very perplexing argument to me....

[SuperJoe33]

2 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

I'd rather address the OL in in free agency. I don't want to have to wait 2 years for a RT to develop when we could pick a defensive player to come in and contribute day 1. We can draft a guard like Garnett in the 2nd if we don't sign Osemele, Allen, Brooks, or Boone in FA. I know a lot of people disagree with me, but I'm totally against drafting a T early if you already have a good LT. Look at guys like Joekel, Greg Robinson, etc who come in and suck for a year or 2. Or even worse, End up being bust. I want now players. Guys who'll come in and be a beast from weak 1 on. And typically Guards do better earlier on than Tackles do. Every year you have 2-3-4 guards who come in and ball out right away, when Tackles are getting beat up.

You mean like Cooper and Warmack did?? If you want guys to come in and start right away that's fine. But don't act like just because he plays guard They will be a week one starter.....

[SuperJoe33]

I tend to agree with the individual who said centers and guards aren't the most wise pics in the first-round.
1) because you can get centers and guards in later rounds
2) in the first-round you're looking for someone who is a difference maker on the field. Either someone who is going to take the ball way or is going to be able to match up against that individual and win 95% of the time.
Whether that's an OT blocking a DE 95% of the time and stonewalling him or if it's a WR who can beat any DB in a man-to-man situation when it's 3rd down and we have to convert to stay alive.

This doesn't mean that centers and guards are valuable. They're just not as valuable as OT or WRs on the offensive side. The same way that DTs are Not as important as OLB's DE's or CB's. If you need proof of that look at Denver. The Broncos did not franchise tag Malik Jackson. They franchise tagged Von Miller. And if you subscribe to this philosophy then anybody that's going to block Von Miller is more important than the individual blocking Malik Jackson.

[COLTS449]

27 minutes ago, SuperJoe33 said:

You mean like Cooper and Warmack did?? If you want guys to come in and start right away that's fine. But don't act like just because he plays guard They will be a week one starter.....

 

No I mean guys like Zach Martin, Joel Bitionio, Brandon Linder, La'el Collins, Kyle Long, Jack Mewhort, Gabe Jackson, Trai Turner. And that's just in the last 2-3 years. Yeah there's gonna be busts at every position. But all I'm saying is typically interior lineman come in and produce quicker than Tackles. That's pretty much a fact.

[SuperJoe33]

38 minutes ago, COLTS449 said:

 

No I mean guys like Zach Martin, Joel Bitionio, Brandon Linder, La'el Collins, Kyle Long, Jack Mewhort, Gabe Jackson, Trai Turner. And that's just in the last 2-3 years. Yeah there's gonna be busts at every position. But all I'm saying is typically interior lineman come in and produce quicker than Tackles. That's pretty much a fact.

So guys like Joe Thomas, Tyrone Smith, Matt Kalil, Jake Long, Joe Staley, Brendan Albert, Anthony Castonzo, Jeff Otah, Russell Okung, Are rookie tackles who played and played reasonably well as graded out by PFF. And there's not one single guard you mentioned that I would take over any of the tackles I mentioned. That's the definition of value,.....................

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/07/25/rookie-impact-offensive-tackles/

Edited March 5, 2016 by SuperJoe33
Added a URL

[COLTS449]

50 minutes ago, SuperJoe33 said:

So guys like Joe Thomas, Tyrone Smith, Matt Kalil, Jake Long, Joe Staley, Brendan Albert, Anthony Castonzo, Jeff Otah, Russell Okung, Are rookie tackles who played and played reasonably well as graded out by PFF. And there's not one single guard you mentioned that I would take over any of the tackles I mentioned. That's the definition of value,.....................

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/07/25/rookie-impact-offensive-tackles/

 

As I said before. I believe if you already have a great LT its kinda dumb to draft a Tackle in the first to stick him at RT and watch him most likely struggle his rookie year. And when you could probably get a difference maker on D with that pick. If we want a RT we can sign one in free agency. Now if we didn't have a good LT then yeah I'd obviously be all for drafting one in the 1st, but we have Castanzo who's a very good LT. But we'll roll with Reitz and Good so we wont be drafting a T early anyway.

[akcolt]

lt will be difficult for a rookie to start on our OL. I think a Conklin would have the best shot at being a day 1 starter among the OL we are talking about. 

 

Grig's and Irsay seem to think Good is the answer at RT. He will get every opportunity to start out there week 1. I hope they got it right. 

 

At OG it is very difficult for a rookie to come in and beat out Mewhort or a healthy Thorton. Thorton has the tools to be a very good G. He's been held back by injuries and hasn't been able to put it together. I'm tired of waiting too. He needs to be replaced. If he's healthy it's a lot to ask of any G I see in this draft to take his job week 1.

 

Our C play is horrible. The worst combination in the league to me. That being said if and it's only happened once in his career Holmes makes it to week 1 healthy I could see him starting.

 

There is a lot that goes into playing C. Then you add stronger faster players across from you and less help from the G's. It will be tough IMO. It's not where I'd want a rookie to start. I certainly wouldn't want a rookie C and RG next to each other. 

 

I think the best play is a FA C. Wiz or Jones are both young. Either could be a long term starter on our OL. Both would be cheaper than a FA G. We could sign an older C and grab one in the draft to bring a long. I'd take Glasgow, Boehm, Allen or even Booker. I like what little I have seen of him. All those guys are there in rounds 3-6. 

 

If decided to draft our C. I think we need a FA G to take over for Thorton to ensure our C is protected. This would be more costly.

 

The OL is not in the horrible shape some believe. Our C's suck no question but that should be an easy fix with many options. We need a long term answer at RG. We still could have something in Heenan. We get a proven C in the middle of the OL. We are 100x better. A rookie Luck goes through more growing pains. 

 

[SuperJoe33]

1 minute ago, COLTS449 said:

 

As I said before. I believe if you already have a great LT its kinda dumb to draft a Tackle in the first to stick him at RT and watch him most likely struggle his rookie year. And when you could probably get a difference maker on D with that pick. If we want a RT we can sign one in free agency. Now if we didn't have a good LT then yeah I'd obviously be all for drafting one in the 1st, but we have Castanzo who's a very good LT. But we'll roll with Reitz and Good so we wont be drafting a T early anyway.

Okay tell me who there is in free agency at tackle or right tackle we can sign in free agency?

[BOTT]

7 minutes ago, akcolt said:

lt will be difficult for a rookie to start on our OL. I think a Conklin would have the best shot at being a day 1 starter among the OL we are talking about. 

 

Grig's and Irsay seem to think Good is the answer at RT. He will get every opportunity to start out there week 1. I hope they got it right. 

 

At OG it is very difficult for a rookie to come in and beat out Mewhort or a healthy Thorton. Thorton has the tools to be a very good G. He's been held back by injuries and hasn't been able to put it together. I'm tired of waiting too. He needs to be replaced. If he's healthy it's a lot to ask of any G I see in this draft to take his job week 1.

 

Our C play is horrible. The worst combination in the league to me. That being said if and it's only happened once in his career Holmes makes it to week 1 healthy I could see him starting.

 

There is a lot that goes into playing C. Then you add stronger faster players across from you and less help from the G's. It will be tough IMO. It's not where I'd want a rookie to start. I certainly wouldn't want a rookie C and RG next to each other. 

 

I think the best play is a FA C. Wiz or Jones are both young. Either could be a long term starter on our OL. Both would be cheaper than a FA G. We could sign an older C and grab one in the draft to bring a long. I'd take Glasgow, Boehm, Allen or even Booker. I like what little I have seen of him. All those guys are there in rounds 3-6. 

 

If decided to draft our C. I think we need a FA G to take over for Thorton to ensure our C is protected. This would be more costly.

 

The OL is not in the horrible shape some believe. Our C's suck no question but that should be an easy fix with many options. We need a long term answer at RG. We still could have something in Heenan. We get a proven C in the middle of the OL. We are 100x better. A rookie Luck goes through more growing pains. 

 

That first sentence is an odd statement.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Gavin said:

I think you generally start your first round draft pick. The exception being if you have a vet in place whos got a year left on his contract or something along that line. With that said regardless if he starts or not I believe you stick with the bpa on your board

 

2ND/3RD round prospects I want to be able to contribute early on and have the ability to develop into a starter by year 4 of his rookie contract. Which don't mean I expect them to start by then but at least make enough progress from his rookie year that rhey could start and be successful if called upon

 

4-7 rounds. Backups that have long term potential

 

Rounds 2 and 3 you want "to have the ability to develop into a starter by year 4 of his rookie contract."...???

 

Huh?

 

If your 2nd and 3rd round picks aren't starting until year 4,  you've done a poor job of drafting.    They should be starting much, much sooner than that.     Like year 2,   year 3 at the latest.

 

The biggest jump a young player makes is from Year 1 to Year 2.     And it's also the same in college.   From Freshman to Sophomore.

 

Picks that high should be contributing and impacting much sooner than your time table.

 

[Gavin]

4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Rounds 2 and 3 you want "to have the ability to develop into a starter by year 4 of his rookie contract."...???

 

Huh?

 

If your 2nd and 3rd round picks aren't starting until year 4,  you've done a poor job of drafting.    They should be starting much, much sooner than that.     Like year 2,   year 3 at the latest.

 

The biggest jump a young player makes is from Year 1 to Year 2.     And it's also the same in college.   From Freshman to Sophomore.

 

Picks that high should be contributing and impacting much sooner than your time table.

 

When I typed that I was thinking more along the lines of a a good vet being ahead of a rookie as a reason why he would not start right away but yes your right year 3 at the latest

[RockThatBlue]

1 hour ago, BOTT said:

That first sentence is an odd statement.

That's what I was thinking. Mewhort did pretty well for a rookie. I don't know why it would be hard for a rookie to start on the o line when it happens all the time in the NFL, including the Colts.

[NewColtsFan]

31 minutes ago, RockThatBlue said:

That's what I was thinking. Mewhort did pretty well for a rookie. I don't know why it would be hard for a rookie to start on the o line when it happens all the time in the NFL, including the Colts.

 

It worked for Mewhort.

 

But it didn't work well for either Holmes or Thornton.     So, it's a long way from a slam dunk.

 

Over at Arizona with our old friend, Bruce Arians....    they're now moving Cooper from Guard to Center because he didn't work out inside.      And they let their 2015 1st round pick,  OT DJ Humphrey,  spend the whole year on the sidelines...     not only did he not start,  he didn't play...   he didn't even dress.

 

Arians says colleges are playing so much spread offense that the OL aren't coming in to the NFL ready for NFL offenses.     They need time to get coached-up.....

 

It's harder than you think to find quality offensive lineman that can start and do pretty well as a rookie.

 

 

[RockThatBlue]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

It worked for Mewhort.

 

But it didn't work well for either Holmes or Thornton.     So, it's a long way from a slam dunk.

 

Over at Arizona with our old friend, Bruce Arians....    they're now moving Cooper from Guard to Center because he didn't work out inside.      And they let their 2015 1st round pick,  OT DJ Humphrey, was spent on the sidelines...     not only did he not start,  he didn't play...   he didn't even dress.

 

Arians says colleges are playing so much spread offense that the OL aren't coming in to the NFL ready for NFL offenses.     They need time to get coached-up.....

 

It's harder than you think to find quality offensive lineman that can start and do pretty well as a rookie.

 

 

Oh I agree with most of your points. AK just said it would be hard to start a rookie and I disagree as it happens a lot. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying that rookie o lineman are tearing it up everywhere, but I dont see why it would be hard to do. 

[akcolt]

29 minutes ago, RockThatBlue said:

That's what I was thinking. Mewhort did pretty well for a rookie. I don't know why it would be hard for a rookie to start on the o line when it happens all the time in the NFL, including the Colts.

I am asking at what position is a rookie going to win on the OL? 

LT Castonzo LG Mewhort C Holmes RG Thorton RT Reitz/Good

 

I am simply saying I don't see a rookie winning the job at either OT spot unless we draft Conklin I believe he could walk in and take over at RT. We believe we set at OT according to those making the decisions

 

OG we have Mewhort and Thorton if both are healthy week 1. I don't see a rookie taking either G spot. Thorton has all the tools to be a good RG. He hasn't put it all together and has been inconsistent due to injuries. I think we need to move on but I don't see a rookie taking his job week 1 if he is healthy. Do you and if you do who? 

 

C is by far the weak link on the OL. It's also the one with the most going on not only will you face bigger and faster opponents the reads are more difficult and you will get less help from the G's in the NFL. If Holmes can get to week 1 healthy. It's a big if I am not sure he doesn't start over a rookie. Grig's isn't big on starting rookie C's anyway.

 

I think it will be difficult for a rookie to start on the OL and provide an immediate uograde. 

 

The fastest most economical way to improve the OL IMO is to sign Wiz or Jones in FA. Both are young 26 and would be our starting C immediately. That upgrade alone would make the OL 100x better. Then in the draft a guy like Tretola, Dahl, Ifedi,Seumalo, or Odihambo  to eventually take over for Thorton.

 

Ideally they are right about Good and he starts at RT making Reitz first off the bench. I'm not so sure. If protecting Luck is our objective. I hope it is. I think starting a rookie C could be bumpy. It's certainly not going immediatley solidify the interoir of the line.  

 

IMO the only way to make the OL better week 1 is through FA starting at the weakest spot C. If we can't get one of the young C's who can be long term solutions then sign a vet to bridge the rookie C and try to uograde RG with a Brooks or one of the better FA RG's.

 

We don't want to get caught with rookies at C and RG. Holmes and  Thorton's injury history almost guarantee that happening if we don't bring in a FA. 

 

I hope we quit playing around and just sign Wiz or Jones. I think it will surprise what a NFL caliber player at C will do for the OL. 

 

 

 

[BOTT]

2 hours ago, akcolt said:

I am asking at what position is a rookie going to win on the OL? 

LT Castonzo LG Mewhort C Holmes RG Thorton RT Reitz/Good

 

I am simply saying I don't see a rookie winning the job at either OT spot unless we draft Conklin I believe he could walk in and take over at RT. We believe we set at OT according to those making the decisions

 

OG we have Mewhort and Thorton if both are healthy week 1. I don't see a rookie taking either G spot. Thorton has all the tools to be a good RG. He hasn't put it all together and has been inconsistent due to injuries. I think we need to move on but I don't see a rookie taking his job week 1 if he is healthy. Do you and if you do who? 

 

C is by far the weak link on the OL. It's also the one with the most going on not only will you face bigger and faster opponents the reads are more difficult and you will get less help from the G's in the NFL. If Holmes can get to week 1 healthy. It's a big if I am not sure he doesn't start over a rookie. Grig's isn't big on starting rookie C's anyway.

 

I think it will be difficult for a rookie to start on the OL and provide an immediate uograde. 

 

The fastest most economical way to improve the OL IMO is to sign Wiz or Jones in FA. Both are young 26 and would be our starting C immediately. That upgrade alone would make the OL 100x better. Then in the draft a guy like Tretola, Dahl, Ifedi,Seumalo, or Odihambo  to eventually take over for Thorton.

 

Ideally they are right about Good and he starts at RT making Reitz first off the bench. I'm not so sure. If protecting Luck is our objective. I hope it is. I think starting a rookie C could be bumpy. It's certainly not going immediatley solidify the interoir of the line.  

 

IMO the only way to make the OL better week 1 is through FA starting at the weakest spot C. If we can't get one of the young C's who can be long term solutions then sign a vet to bridge the rookie C and try to uograde RG with a Brooks or one of the better FA RG's.

 

We don't want to get caught with rookies at C and RG. Holmes and  Thorton's injury history almost guarantee that happening if we don't bring in a FA. 

 

I hope we quit playing around and just sign Wiz or Jones. I think it will surprise what a NFL caliber player at C will do for the OL. 

 

 

 

C, RG, RT

 

the centers aren't good/healthy. If the colts go center fairly early, it would be a good bet he starts.

 

i have always liked the potential of Thorton, but he has to be consistent and stay healthy.  Remember, Lance Louis was starting last season in his place.

 

Reitz is a solid player who has had health issues in the past....I would be surprised if he was beat out by a rook, but not shocked.  Goode has barely played.