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Baltimore (+7) @ New England (1-10-15)


oldunclemark

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4:35 EST....NBC... 20 degrees and sunny...over-under 47.5

winner plays Indianapolis (12-5) or Denver (12-4) for the AFC title Jan 18..

New England QB Tom Brady 373 of 582, 4,109 yards, 33 TDs, 9 interceptions..

TE Rob Gronkowski 82 catches, 1,124 yards

WR Julian Edelman - 92 catches, 972 yards

WR Brandon LaFell 74 catches, 953 yards (they'd have had three 1,000 yard receivers if they'd have played to

win the final week against Buffalo..

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco 344 of 555, 3,986 yards 27 TDs, 12 INTs...but he has won 5 playoff games in a row

Steve Smith 79 catches, 1,065 yards....and 5 for 101 yards last week against Pittsburgh

RB - Justin Forsett 235 carries, 1,266 yards.but just 36 on 16 carries in the playoff win over Pitt

OLB - Elvis Dumervil - 17 QB sacks..2 more last week vs. Pitt...Baltimore had 49 sacks...No. 2 in the NFL

.......and Baltimore matches up well up front.so seven points is too much.

..but Baltimore cant score enough to win here

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Spread seems right to me. It is the one seed vs the sixth seed so NE being a heavy favorite at home makes sense. I would like it more if it was 6 and a half and not 7. I do think the Pats win comfortably. Good weather forecast too which favors Pats pass game which I expect to see a ton of given the Ravens secondary.

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Spread seems right to me. It is the one seed vs the sixth seed so NE being a heavy favorite at home makes sense. I would like it more if it was 6 and a half and not 7. I do think the Pats win comfortably. Good weather forecast too which favors Pats pass game which I expect to see a ton of given the Ravens secondary.

I agree..I know we've talked about this befor e but I just don't put any weight whatsoever on games that didnt occur this season..

,....and if you look at the 2 teams this year only...the Ravens are going to have a lot of problems scoring Saturday..

.Baltimore needs the defense to score to win here

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I agree..I know we've talked about this befor e but I just don't put any weight whatsoever on games that didnt occur this season..

,....and if you look at the 2 teams this year only...the Ravens are going to have a lot of problems scoring Saturday..

.Baltimore needs the defense to score to win here

I think Brady said it best when he said neither team has retired players coming out of retirement for this game. If you look at the players on the field and the two teams there is a decided advantage for the Pats along with home field. Of course anything can happen and the Ravens are a proven post-season team but it will be difficult for them all day to score and to also contain the Pats passing offense.

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I think Brady said it best when he said neither team has retired players coming out of retirement for this game. If you look at the players on the field and the two teams there is a decided advantage for the Pats along with home field. Of course anything can happen and the Ravens are a proven post-season team but it will be difficult for them all day to score and to also contain the Pats passing offense.

Certainly everything on paper , and the home field , points to the Patriots. I'm still very surprised the Ravens got in the playoffs , and then beat a hot Pittsburgh team on the road, in their first playoff victory against Pittsburgh. I can only hope the

Ravens can continue to buck the odds.

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i think this is a close game for 3 quarters, with NE pulling away in the 4th.

 

30-17 is my guess, but a closer game than that score (thinking its 23-17 with NE scoring a late put it a way TD)

 

The Ravens front 7 will come out flying like they always do and give the Pats problems early, but i see the Pats making adjustments and eventually exploiting the secondary.

 

I dont see the Ravens scoring consistently on this version of the Pats defense.  The secondary is good enough to cover the recievers, opening up the chance for deception with the LB's between blitzing or showing blitz and dropping into zone.

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i think this is a close game for 3 quarters, with NE pulling away in the 4th.

30-17 is my guess, but a closer game than that score (thinking its 23-17 with NE scoring a late put it a way TD)

The Ravens front 7 will come out flying like they always do and give the Pats problems early, but i see the Pats making adjustments and eventually exploiting the secondary.

I dont see the Ravens scoring consistently on this version of the Pats defense. The secondary is good enough to cover the recievers, opening up the chance for deception with the LB's between blitzing or showing blitz and dropping into zone.

This Ravens team is totally superior to the 2013 team, and if they had Jimmy Smith at cornerback, I would like their odds a lot better. I don't think it's as good as the 2012 or 2011 editions , and additionally NE is much improved with Gronk healthy, and Browner and Revis. I'm just hoping for some of that 2012 magic continuing.

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This Ravens team is totally superior to the 2013 team, and if they had Jimmy Smith at cornerback, I would like their odds a lot better. I don't think it's as good as the 2012 or 2011 editions , and additionally NE is much improved with Gronk healthy, and Browner and Revis. I'm just hoping for some of that 2012 magic continuing.

This is probably the best and healthiest Pats team to take the field for a post season game since 2007 ...

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Ravens have a great defensive front. Patriots have an inconsistent offensive line, and struggle in pass coverage. Ravens have a secondary that struggles to cover deep. Patriots struggle to throw deep.

 

Is it just me, or is this the worst matchup the Patriots could have drawn in the AFC?

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Ravens have a great defensive front. Patriots have an inconsistent offensive line, and struggle in pass coverage. Ravens have a secondary that struggles to cover deep. Patriots struggle to throw deep.

 

Is it just me, or is this the worst matchup the Patriots could have drawn in the AFC?

I don't think so. Cincy has a great front too. The best possible match up probably would have been the Colts for obvious reasons. But no cake walks this time of year for any team in the divisional round. Pats are the all around stronger team and even though they don't throw deep much, I expect Brady to test those corners early and often. But as you say, the front is good so much depends on how they protect Brady. I do think the Pats try to run some with Blount in this game to set up play action or they will spread the Ravens out like they did vs Detroit who also had a great front but weak secondary.

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I don't think so. Cincy has a great front too. The best possible match up probably would have been the Colts for obvious reasons. But no cake walks this time of year for any team in the divisional round. Pats are the all around stronger team and even though they don't throw deep much, I expect Brady to test those corners early and often. But as you say, the front is good so much depends on how they protect Brady. I do think the Pats try to run some with Blount in this game to set up play action or they will spread the Ravens out like they did vs Detroit who also had a great front but weak secondary.

I agree. I think they will go spread. Also, the Pats defense is designed to take away what the Ravens do which is throw deep. So it will be interesting to see how much they are able to stay in their game plan and be able to score.

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I agree. I think they will go spread. Also, the Pats defense is designed to take away what the Ravens do which is throw deep. So it will be interesting to see how much they are able to stay in their game plan and be able to score.

Yes that should be the big difference. Our D vs their O. No one is really talking about that because the Ravens defense has frustrated Brady in the past but this Pats D is the best we have had in a long time and is great at taking away the pass and forcing TOs.

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It will purely come down to Brady and how much the Patriots offense can put up. The biggest difference this year is that the Patriots' D is capable of generating turnovers to generate better field position for their offense.

 

With Brady and Peyton led teams, it is rare that they lose a game where they have put up points in the 30s (happened once for Brady, once for Peyton in their playoff careers). So, teams that beat them normally limit them to around 21 pts or less.

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I don't think so. Cincy has a great front too. The best possible match up probably would have been the Colts for obvious reasons. But no cake walks this time of year for any team in the divisional round. Pats are the all around stronger team and even though they don't throw deep much, I expect Brady to test those corners early and often. But as you say, the front is good so much depends on how they protect Brady. I do think the Pats try to run some with Blount in this game to set up play action or they will spread the Ravens out like they did vs Detroit who also had a great front but weak secondary.

 

Cincy's front isn't anywhere near as good as the Ravens, especially in terms of pass rush. Ravens had 35 more sacks, and 86 more total pressures.

 

(It's also ironic, IMO, that people dismissed the Bengals as an easy opponent when the Colts beat them, but now they're supposed to be as tough an opponent as the Ravens. But I digress.)

 

Also, the Ravens secondary is really only suspect down the field. They cover well within ten yards, and they have LBs and safeties who do a strong job against TEs. They gave up some plays against Jimmy Graham, and I suspect they'll give up plays to Gronk. But like you said, the real problem they present is that defensive front, against the run and rushing the passer, while the Pats struggle to protect the QB. 

 

I wouldn't expect this to look like the 2009 playoff matchup, but they present similar issues. Dominant pass rush against a team that doesn't pass block all that well and can't throw deep. I think the Pats would have rather seen anyone else in the AFC. The only other matchups that present this kind of issue are the Seahawks (obvs), and the Packers.

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Cincy's front isn't anywhere near as good as the Ravens, especially in terms of pass rush. Ravens had 35 more sacks, and 86 more total pressures.

 

(It's also ironic, IMO, that people dismissed the Bengals as an easy opponent when the Colts beat them, but now they're supposed to be as tough an opponent as the Ravens. But I digress.)

 

Also, the Ravens secondary is really only suspect down the field. They cover well within ten yards, and they have LBs and safeties who do a strong job against TEs. They gave up some plays against Jimmy Graham, and I suspect they'll give up plays to Gronk. But like you said, the real problem they present is that defensive front, against the run and rushing the passer, while the Pats struggle to protect the QB. 

 

I wouldn't expect this to look like the 2009 playoff matchup, but they present similar issues. Dominant pass rush against a team that doesn't pass block all that well and can't throw deep. I think the Pats would have rather seen anyone else in the AFC. The only other matchups that present this kind of issue are the Seahawks (obvs), and the Packers.

Bengals were dismissed because of Dalton not their defense. 

 

There is no question that the best and easiest match up for the Pats would have been the Colts. That is who I wanted most.

 

That being said, Ravens are a good team but will be severely challenged to score points tomorrow. That is where the real advantage lies IMO as well as their secondary especially vs Gronk. They have struggled to cover TEs all season.This game will look nothing like 2009 as that was maybe one of the weakest Pats post-season teams especially vs the run which is where Rice tore them up. Flacco I think completed only four passes in that game.

 

I like the match up because the Pats have been primed with their tough schedule to win this type of game. And it will also better prepare them for the conf. champ game should they win vs the tomato can games they have had in the divisional rounds the past three seasons.

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Cincy's front isn't anywhere near as good as the Ravens, especially in terms of pass rush. Ravens had 35 more sacks, and 86 more total pressures.

 

(It's also ironic, IMO, that people dismissed the Bengals as an easy opponent when the Colts beat them, but now they're supposed to be as tough an opponent as the Ravens. But I digress.)

 

Also, the Ravens secondary is really only suspect down the field. They cover well within ten yards, and they have LBs and safeties who do a strong job against TEs. They gave up some plays against Jimmy Graham, and I suspect they'll give up plays to Gronk. But like you said, the real problem they present is that defensive front, against the run and rushing the passer, while the Pats struggle to protect the QB. 

 

I wouldn't expect this to look like the 2009 playoff matchup, but they present similar issues. Dominant pass rush against a team that doesn't pass block all that well and can't throw deep. I think the Pats would have rather seen anyone else in the AFC. The only other matchups that present this kind of issue are the Seahawks (obvs), and the Packers.

I agree. I think the Pats and Ravens are the two best teams left in the AFC. If the Pats get by this game, I don't see the next opponent being as formidable match up wise and both have struggled in NE whereas the Ravens have not.

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There has been a lot of angst around here this week... way more than I find acceptable. ;)  I respect the Ravens and they're a worthy opponent, and have given NE trouble in the past. But none of that really matters tomorrow. This is the best defense the Patriots have had since 2004. They have Gronk healthy in the playoffs for the first time since his rookie year. And as much as Baltimore was impressive last week, this is a team that coughed up a game to Case Keenum three weeks ago when they needed a win to secure a playoff berth. The way the media's been around here, you would think the '85 Bears are coming to town tomorrow (or maybe the 2002 Ravens instead of this year's team). 

 

As long as they can protect Brady (and I think they will... similar game-plan to what they did with Detroit), the Patriots will roll in this one. 

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Bengals were dismissed because of Dalton not their defense. 

 

There is no question that the best and easiest match up for the Pats would have been the Colts. That is who I wanted most.

 

That being said, Ravens are a good team but will be severely challenged to score points tomorrow. That is where the real advantage lies IMO as well as their secondary especially vs Gronk. They have struggled to cover TEs all season.This game will look nothing like 2009 as that was maybe one of the weakest Pats post-season teams especially vs the run which is where Rice tore them up. Flacco I think completed only four passes in that game.

 

I like the match up because the Pats have been primed with their tough schedule to win this type of game. And it will also better prepare them for the conf. champ game should they win vs the tomato can games they have had in the divisional rounds the past three seasons.

 

Bengals defense got destroyed. That's not even the point. The point is that their defensive front is nowhere near as good as the Ravens, either against the run or rushing the passer. Not even close.

 

Also, nice little off-topic dig at the Colts, but whatever.

 

You say the Ravens will be hard-pressed to score points, but that's what I'm saying about the Pats. At least the Ravens can make plays down the field. The Ravens only struggle deep, and the Pats don't throw deep; when they do, they don't have success. Unless the Pats defense forces turnovers, the offense is going to have to do two things that they aren't very good at so far this year: protect the QB, and make plays down the field. It's the Pats worst nightmare in this year's playoffs.

 

And my point in bringing up the 2009 game is exactly what you mentioned: they didn't even need Flacco to make plays. They still run the ball well, they can still hit home runs on the ground, and now they have a passing attack that can hold up its end of the bargain. Of course, the Pats defense is better as well. But it's not like I'm arguing that the Ravens are going to put up 40 on the Pats. I'm saying that I think the Pats offense has a full time job on its hands this week.

 

Feel free to look forward eagerly to the championship matchups, but they have to get past the Ravens, first. 

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Bengals defense got destroyed. That's not even the point. The point is that their defensive front is nowhere near as good as the Ravens, either against the run or rushing the passer. Not even close.

 

Also, nice little off-topic dig at the Colts, but whatever.

 

You say the Ravens will be hard-pressed to score points, but that's what I'm saying about the Pats. At least the Ravens can make plays down the field. The Ravens only struggle deep, and the Pats don't throw deep; when they do, they don't have success. Unless the Pats defense forces turnovers, the offense is going to have to do two things that they aren't very good at so far this year: protect the QB, and make plays down the field. It's the Pats worst nightmare in this year's playoffs.

 

And my point in bringing up the 2009 game is exactly what you mentioned: they didn't even need Flacco to make plays. They still run the ball well, they can still hit home runs on the ground, and now they have a passing attack that can hold up its end of the bargain. Of course, the Pats defense is better as well. But it's not like I'm arguing that the Ravens are going to put up 40 on the Pats. I'm saying that I think the Pats offense has a full time job on its hands this week.

 

Feel free to look forward eagerly to the championship matchups, but they have to get past the Ravens, first. 

Why so testy? You asked, remember? Of course we would want the Colts who we have destroyed three times since Luck came aboard. 

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There has been a lot of angst around here this week... way more than I find acceptable. ;)  I respect the Ravens and they're a worthy opponent, and have given NE trouble in the past. But none of that really matters tomorrow. This is the best defense the Patriots have had since 2004. They have Gronk healthy in the playoffs for the first time since his rookie year. And as much as Baltimore was impressive last week, this is a team that coughed up a game to Case Keenum three weeks ago when they needed a win to secure a playoff berth. The way the media's been around here, you would think the '85 Bears are coming to town tomorrow (or maybe the 2002 Ravens instead of this year's team). 

 

As long as they can protect Brady (and I think they will... similar game-plan to what they did with Detroit), the Patriots will roll in this one. 

Yep, tons of drama this week. lol. But that is the media's job, right? I didn't listen to the radio or read much.

 

I agree about a similar game plan as Detroit. I have been saying that all week to friends. Now watch Bill come out and run. lol.

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There has been a lot of angst around here this week... way more than I find acceptable. ;)  I respect the Ravens and they're a worthy opponent, and have given NE trouble in the past. But none of that really matters tomorrow. This is the best defense the Patriots have had since 2004. They have Gronk healthy in the playoffs for the first time since his rookie year. And as much as Baltimore was impressive last week, this is a team that coughed up a game to Case Keenum three weeks ago when they needed a win to secure a playoff berth. The way the media's been around here, you would think the '85 Bears are coming to town tomorrow (or maybe the 2002 Ravens instead of this year's team). 

 

As long as they can protect Brady (and I think they will... similar game-plan to what they did with Detroit), the Patriots will roll in this one. 

 

Completely different defensive front than Detroit. Two really good/great edge rushers, plus an interior wall. The Pats haven't protected Brady well against good edge rushers practically all season. And just a couple weeks ago, with home field on the line, they gave up 4 sacks to the Jets. 

 

It's not the '85 Bears or the '00 Ravens, but it's the kind of defense that always gives the Pats fits, the kind they aren't good at exploiting, and the same kind that's put the Pats out of the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 times they've played. It's all about matchups. 

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Why so testy? You asked, remember? Of course we would want the Colts who we have destroyed three times since Luck came aboard. 

 

I'm not testy.

 

And I didn't ask anything about the Bengals or the Colts. Feel free to bring them up, but it's completely irrelevant, and seems entirely like a deflection.

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I agree. I think the Pats and Ravens are the two best teams left in the AFC. If the Pats get by this game, I don't see the next opponent being as formidable match up wise and both have struggled in NE whereas the Ravens have not.

 

Pats/Broncos is always going to be an interesting matchup, but I think the Ravens are better suited to stop the Pats.

 

Although, now that I'm thinking about it, the Broncos defense isn't giving anything up lately (aside from laying an egg against the Bengals). They have a really good pass rush, a better secondary, and defend TEs better than the Ravens. But I think the Ravens defense travels better, especially to Foxborough.

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Pats/Broncos is always going to be an interesting matchup, but I think the Ravens are better suited to stop the Pats.

 

Although, now that I'm thinking about it, the Broncos defense isn't giving anything up lately (aside from laying an egg against the Bengals). They have a really good pass rush, a better secondary, and defend TEs better than the Ravens. But I think the Ravens defense travels better, especially to Foxborough.

I agree. Plus the Broncos have changed so much since the Pats played them with the focus on the run. Manning was playing better back in Nov but I think the Denver team is playing more balanced since then.

 

How do you see the Colts matching up with the Broncos? What is the scuttle? I assume everyone is fixated on Luck/Manning but the match ups are interesting. I think the Colts can put up points on Denver. Not sure how much they can get after Manning though defensively. STs could be huge too as Denver's is lousy and the Colts are excellent.

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I agree. Plus the Broncos have changed so much since the Pats played them with the focus on the run. Manning was playing better back in Nov but I think the Denver team is playing more balanced since then.

 

How do you see the Colts matching up with the Broncos? What is the scuttle? I assume everyone is fixated on Luck/Manning but the match ups are interesting. I think the Colts can put up points on Denver. Not sure how much they can get after Manning though defensively. STs could be huge too as Denver's is lousy and the Colts are excellent.

 

I have no idea. Technically, our defense is awful in the middle of the field, but Welker and J. Thomas aren't 100%. Technically, our pass rush isn't good, but our secondary has been covering well and we have good matchups at corner/nickel, so maybe we can force Manning to hold the ball longer than he wants and throw some contested balls, maybe even float a couple. I think we're capable of holding their rushing attack in check, but they've been very persistent lately, with documented success. 

 

On offense, I think we have enough weapons, but they have good matchups, too. Especially if we can't run the ball -- and we can't run the ball. If we catch lightning in a bottle, it might change some things, but I don't count on that. Hilton is the biggest weapon, but he can disappear sometimes, and might not be 100%. Fleener and Allen can make plays, but Allen isn't 100% and probably needs to stay in to block on the right side, and Fleener can be taken away by Ward. I think we have to get some big plays in order to move the ball, and that might open everything else up. 

 

One thing's for sure: this is a completely different kind of matchup from Week 1. That could be a good thing for us, but it could also be a bad thing for us.

 

I don't think most Colts fans care about Luck vs. Manning, based on my interactions. It's a storyline, but has little to do with either team's motivations.

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I'm not testy.

 

And I didn't ask anything about the Bengals or the Colts. Feel free to bring them up, but it's completely irrelevant, and seems entirely like a deflection.

I apologize for calling you testy but you did ask the following, "Is it just me, or is this the worst matchup the Patriots could have drawn in the AFC?"

 

I answered it by saying that the Bengals would have been similar in terms of defensive fronts but the Colts would have been the best match up of all. I was not digging at the Colts but answering your question by giving perspective on the other two teams that the Pats could have potentially faced and how the Pats would have matched up with each IMO.

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The mother of all stats, differential passer rating shows up like this after the 2014 season:

 

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/18/PRD/

 

 

As expected, Packers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Patriots and Broncos are the top 5 here and the Colts are in the top 10, so chances are, one of them will be SB champs (95% of champs came from the top 10 in this category).

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I apologize for calling you testy but you did ask the following, "Is it just me, or is this the worst matchup the Patriots could have drawn in the AFC?"

 

I answered it by saying that the Bengals would have been similar in terms of defensive fronts but the Colts would have been the best match up of all. I was not digging at the Colts but answering your question by giving perspective on the other two teams that the Pats could have potentially faced and how the Pats would have matched up with each IMO.

 

In other words, "not the Colts or Bengals..."

 

When the question was about who might be a worse matchup for the Pats. Like I said, an unnecessary dig, but whatever. No need to spend any more keystrokes on it, IMO.

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The mother of all stats, differential passer rating shows up like this after the 2014 season:

 

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/18/PRD/

 

 

As expected, Packers, Cowboys, Seahawks, Patriots and Broncos are the top 5 here and the Colts are in the top 10, so chances are, one of them will be SB champs (95% of champs came from the top 10 in this category).

 

Colts at #8... not bad, but well behind the other five. Pats are 5th at +13.56, Colts are at +8.02. Ravens all the way down at 18 at +0.26.

 

Carolina at -3.27.

 

Nice post. I haven't look at PRD in a while.

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I have no idea. Technically, our defense is awful in the middle of the field, but Welker and J. Thomas aren't 100%. Technically, our pass rush isn't good, but our secondary has been covering well and we have good matchups at corner/nickel, so maybe we can force Manning to hold the ball longer than he wants and throw some contested balls, maybe even float a couple. I think we're capable of holding their rushing attack in check, but they've been very persistent lately, with documented success. 

 

On offense, I think we have enough weapons, but they have good matchups, too. Especially if we can't run the ball -- and we can't run the ball. If we catch lightning in a bottle, it might change some things, but I don't count on that. Hilton is the biggest weapon, but he can disappear sometimes, and might not be 100%. Fleener and Allen can make plays, but Allen isn't 100% and probably needs to stay in to block on the right side, and Fleener can be taken away by Ward. I think we have to get some big plays in order to move the ball, and that might open everything else up. 

 

One thing's for sure: this is a completely different kind of matchup from Week 1. That could be a good thing for us, but it could also be a bad thing for us.

 

I don't think most Colts fans care about Luck vs. Manning, based on my interactions. It's a storyline, but has little to do with either team's motivations.

Seems like you don't feel like Colts have a good chance? I do think the injuries to the Denver receivers will be big. I am really interested to see how much Denver runs vs passes in this game.

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Seems like you don't feel like Colts have a good chance? I do think the injuries to the Denver receivers will be big. I am really interested to see how much Denver runs vs passes in this game.

 

I think they have a good chance. It's just that the Colts can either show up and play to their ability for four quarters, or they can make a bunch of mistakes and beat themselves. I don't know what's going to happen, but if we help the Broncos with turnovers and blown coverages and missed tackles, then it's hasta.

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the Pats o-line woes are a little overblown.  when healthy they are strong (see Denver, Chicago, Cincy, Detroit games).  They have no depth though, so when one of the backups is in it becomes a trainwreck.

 

they are healthy again, so as long as they can keep Solder-Connolly-Stork-Wendell-Vollmer together they will be ok on the o-line.

 

 

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I think the anxiety in NE has been caused by the Ravens winning 2 out of 3 in NE, and should have won the third game that Flacco brought them back in the last seconds . Had Evans not dropped it, it would have been 3 for 3. That being said , this is a different game with different teams.

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I think the anxiety in NE has been caused by the Ravens winning 2 out of 3 in NE, and should have won the third game that Flacco brought them back in the last seconds . Had Evans not dropped it, it would have been 3 for 3. That being said , this is a different game with different teams.

One nit pick. Evans did not drop it. The NE DB chopped it out of his hands. It was a great defensive play.

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A better receiver catches that ball. You have to secure it. Bad play by a bum.

Maybe but the DB chopped it out right as he was catching it and securing it. Had Flacco led him more than the DB never gets his hands on it. I always put that play more on Flacco than Evans. It was not a drop by any stretch though.

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