I Don't Get the Knock on Luck for Turning the Ball Over Too Much

[RockThatBlue]

I'm more worried about fumbles than interceptions as of late. He needs to study Aaron Rodgers and find a way to sense pressure and throw on the run, or just fall like Manning instead of getting the ball stripped.

I think Luck is great at throwing on the run. But you're not gonna feel the pressure coming every single time.

[dgambill]

Well he had a good year last year protecting the ball and then he had like 7 ints in two games in the playoffs. For the most part he has been pretty good this year but he has been pretty loose with the ball lately. Honestly, its in the big games he needs to have a clean game and he just hasn't been able to for the most part. He hasn't really cost us a game with it this year but to beat the very best we really can't afford to turn it over. Overall though with the volume of throwing he has done..he has been really good....just as good as Peyton. Sure he hasn't been Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady good but few are. I think its a critique but not a very good one. Certainly though in the playoffs he is going to have to play a clean game for us to advance more than likely though.

[Coffeedrinker]

I like Luck a lot but the knock on his TOs is because he turns the ball over too much.  When you add his INTs and fumbles he averages almost 1.5 TOs per game... that is too much for a franchise QB.

 

The thing about his TOs that I like, is he rarely turns over the ball with the game on the line. 

[throwing BBZ]

I know it's mostly Skip Bayless who is the main person who loves pushing this idea, but I've also seen a few fans saying he throws too many picks. His rookie year, I mean of course. What rookie doesn't usually have a high turnover margin. But I don't see it this season.

 

He has 11 INTs, but that's with 34 TDs. Not to mention that Matt Ryan has 10, Brees 11, and Peyton 9. Yet he leads the league in passing yards and is second only to Manning (36) in TD passes. It seems to me that everyone can't get over last seasons playoff run, with him throwing 7 in 2 games. But when you throw it a lot, you're bound to turn it over more. The other guys are mentioned are in the top 5 for passing yards along with Rothlisberger who has 8 INT's on the season.

 

Sure he has some BAD INT's at times but I think he's done a great job. 2012 18, the next year 9. Then this year he's at 11, but to 34 TDs so it balances out.

 

 The kind of Int`s he has is a bother.

You know, the ones where they are thrown right to the defender. Several of those have been (FleenRD) dropped. 3,4, 5 ? of those.

 

[throwing BBZ]

I don't think Andrew Luck plays anything like Brett Favre. 

 

  My Packer/Colts buddy was telling me after last weeks game how much like Favre Andrew is. No doubt!

[ThE JoKeR]

I once said ( as did others) that Luck has the potential to be better than Manning or Brady, now it's starting to show that it's possible that he is better than them and others. It's his 3rd year and he looks like he might possibly be the GOAT. I'm not crazy, I'm just ahead of the curve.

[masterlock]

Additionally, his first 4 of 5 interceptions were off deflected passes, he can't really take the blame for that.  I think Luck is doing a fine job this season.  I am a little irritated with the number of mishandled snaps that lead to fumbles though, but that, IMHO, is on Harrison.

 

(Put Shipley back in, for the love of Gad)

By the same token, he's been very lucky that some passes that SHOULD have been intercepted were not, thanks to opposing CBs failing to make a play. It goes both ways.

 

My biggest problem with Luck, and this is nitpicking, is that there are too many what-was-he-thinking moments, but I think those will diminish with experience and proper coaching. I also think he needs to work on his accuracy a bit.

 

Overall, he is getting better each year, as evidenced by the numbers. There's a case to be made that a QB of his talent level should be making fewer mistakes, and maybe that's what many people are reacting to more than the interceptions per se, since he is judged by a higher standard.

[crazycolt1]

Whose arguing?

 

Check out post #7 in which you quote me and wrote the following:

Without Lucks play there would be no playoff games. A big part of his turnovers is the pressure he faces every game. Last night I seen Rogers have just about all the time he needed  for his receivers to clear. One play was at least 8-10 seconds. Luck has never had that much time in his short career. Sorry but when you lead the NFL in yardage and are in the top 3 in TDs he is making solid decisions.

 

You brought up Rogers to me. That is what I responding to and not arguing. A disagreement is not an argument you know.

My reference was to the difference in time between Luck and Rogers has to wait for their receivers to clear. I was not comparing the two as in talent or who is better. Luck is a elite QB no matter your opinion is. That is my opinion, that's all. It's not a big deal one way or another.

[crazycolt1]

Rogers line has not been good the last few years. He just isn't guy that ever forces it. He had 12 seconds one one play yesterday in the red zone and just ate it. He is soooo good at being patient and taking what is there. I think Luck will  progress although probably not to Rogers level. No one is at Rogers level other than Brady when it comes to pass attempts vs INTs.

One thing we need to keep in mind. Rogers has an elite RB and a good defense behind him. He can afford not to force things. Exactly what does Luck have to fall back on except his will to win in your opinion? Comparing Luck with Rogers and what they do and what they are capable of doing all depends on the team play of the Colts and Packers. The better the total team is, the better the QB play is. Of coarse Rogers is going to look better than Luck. He is on a better team. He is a seasoned veteran with a super bowl already under his belt. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

[sweetsurrender]

One thing we need to keep in mind. Rogers has an elite RB and a good defense behind him. He can afford not to force things. Exactly what does Luck have to fall back on except his will to win in your opinion? Comparing Luck with Rogers and what they do and what they are capable of doing all depends on the team play of the Colts and Packers. The better the total team is, the better the QB play is. Of coarse Rogers is going to look better than Luck. He is on a better team. He is a seasoned veteran with a super bowl already under his belt. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

This is where we disagree. Green Bay has not been very good the last few years. Especially defensively and his Oline. Eddie Lacy just came on board last year. He really did not have a great RB prior to him. GB's drafts overall have been suspect. Rodgers has been carrying that team for quite some time and has still been playing at an all time level. At this point, there is only one Aaron Rodgers, he is the best. Luck I think is on his way. We will see how his game develops but this thread topic is very relevant as he does need to clean up his game to get to that next level. I believe he will.

[James Harden]

Luck can't have those simple mistakes during Playoffs time. Just take a sack if possible or throw it to the sidelines. The only problem that he have is going thru his reads and checkdowns. Gotta have that 1,2,3, BAM! move like Manning. 

[ColtsFan1976]

In Luck's first three seasons he has less interceptions than Manning did.  Also, Luck fumbles because his Offensive line cannot block a blind man.

[crazycolt1]

This is where we disagree. Green Bay has not been very good the last few years. Especially defensively and his Oline. Eddie Lacy just came on board last year. He really did not have a great RB prior to him. GB's drafts overall have been suspect. Rodgers has been carrying that team for quite some time and has still been playing at an all time level. At this point, there is only one Aaron Rodgers, he is the best. Luck I think is on his way. We will see how his game develops but this thread topic is very relevant as he does need to clean up his game to get to that next level. I believe he will.

Kind of hard to grasp the Packers haven't been good the last few years. Rogers 1st year the Packers went 6-10. 2nd year made a wild card spot. 3rd year a super bowl. Next year 15-1. Next year 11-5. Those numbers really don't show a team that hasn't been very good. year 2- a wild card. year 3-super bowl. year 4- 15-1. year 5-11-5 with a loss in division round. Sorry, not a sign of a bad team. So with all due respect I must disagree with your opinion. My original intent was that Luck started with a whole new team period. There were at that time only 8 players on the roster left from the 2-14 team and 2 of those players were kickers. New GM and all but 1 coaches. In my humble opinion Rogers had a much better team to step into than Luck. Luck did not have the benefit of standing on the sidelines for 3 seasons to learn how to play QB in the pros. The Packers head coach was hired in 1999. Pagano, a rookie head coach who lost most of the year due to illness. Big big difference in the way these two great QBs started their careers.

[Bobbycovert]

even with 11 interceptions, his ratio is still over 3:1, which is great.....also what's his interception  %? that's the way to truly judge it not so much the raw numbers.

All-time Career Interception Percentage Leaders (minimum 1500 passes)

 

Rank Player (age), + - HOFer, Bold - Active Int% Years Teams 1. Aaron Rodgers (31) 1.6%  2005-2014  gnb 2. Tom Brady (37) 2.0%  2000-2014  nwe 3. Neil O'Donnell 2.1%  1991-2003  4TM 4. Sam Bradford (27) 2.2%  2010-2014  ram   Donovan McNabb 2.2%  1999-2011  3TM 6. Andrew Luck (25) 2.3%  2012-2014  clt   Jeff Garcia 2.3%  1999-2011  6TM   Matt Ryan (29) 2.3%  2008-2014  atl   Mark Brunell 2.3%  1994-2011  5TM 10. David Garrard (36) 2.4%  2002-2013  2TM

 

 

This is what I found. I hope it is up to date.

[Bobbycovert]

I will preface this by saying there is not a qb I would rather have than luck. I think he will be this generation's Brady or manning. But it is clear that he makes some terrible decisions at times not all of which result in turnovers but bad ones nonetheless.

I would agree that as much as the colts throw and the downfield nature of his throws means there is more potential for bad things to happen but I think the turnover prone label is legit until he rights the situation.

 

Not at all actually

[runthepost]

One thing we need to keep in mind. Rogers has an elite RB and a good defense behind him. He can afford not to force things. Exactly what does Luck have to fall back on except his will to win in your opinion? Comparing Luck with Rogers and what they do and what they are capable of doing all depends on the team play of the Colts and Packers. The better the total team is, the better the QB play is. Of coarse Rogers is going to look better than Luck. He is on a better team. He is a seasoned veteran with a super bowl already under his belt. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

Rodgers is better than luck.. Rodgers has his own category

[crazycolt1]

Rodgers is better than luck.. Rodgers has his own category

He should be.. Did you even bother to read my comment?

[jskinnz]

Not at all actually

 

11 ints and 5 lost fumbles.  Seems without argument that he can take better care of the ball.

[NewColtsFan]

 The kind of Int`s he has is a bother.

You know, the ones where they are thrown right to the defender. Several of those have been (FleenRD) dropped. 3,4, 5 ? of those.

 

 

I think very, very few of Luck's interceptions are due to passes that were dropped and should've been caught.

 

I think a large number of Luck's interceptions are passes that have been tipped and then picked off.

 

But those tips were most often poor passes by Luck.   Passes that were too hot,  too high,  too far behind the receiver,  etc.

 

I think most of those tipped interceptions were much more on Luck than they were on the receivers....    just like the one he threw in this week's game...

[Bobbycovert]

11 ints and 5 lost fumbles.  Seems without argument that he can take better care of the ball.

 

The same could be said of any quarterback not named Rodgers or Brady.  His interception % ranks very high all-time and the fumbles are, in part, a function of the amount of pressure he sees.  I don't disagree that he can improve but the narrative that Luck is turnover prone is absolute nonsense.

[sweetsurrender]

Kind of hard to grasp the Packers haven't been good the last few years. Rogers 1st year the Packers went 6-10. 2nd year made a wild card spot. 3rd year a super bowl. Next year 15-1. Next year 11-5. Those numbers really don't show a team that hasn't been very good. year 2- a wild card. year 3-super bowl. year 4- 15-1. year 5-11-5 with a loss in division round. Sorry, not a sign of a bad team. So with all due respect I must disagree with your opinion. My original intent was that Luck started with a whole new team period. There were at that time only 8 players on the roster left from the 2-14 team and 2 of those players were kickers. New GM and all but 1 coaches. In my humble opinion Rogers had a much better team to step into than Luck. Luck did not have the benefit of standing on the sidelines for 3 seasons to learn how to play QB in the pros. The Packers head coach was hired in 1999. Pagano, a rookie head coach who lost most of the year due to illness. Big big difference in the way these two great QBs started their careers.

I could say the same about the Colts, 11-5, 11-5 and this year maybe 12-4? But we know why? Right. Luck. Same for GB these last few years. 

 

I do agree that Rodgers inherited a much, much better team in 2009 and he went and won the SB with it a year later. Since then though his FO has not done a great job retooling that defense and getting him an Oline. This is the first year probably since 2010 that the Packers look more like a complete team and not the Aaron Rodgers show but I still don't think his defense is very good. Statistically it is not good at all so we will see if it holds up in the post-season.

 

I think we both know Rodger is the better QB regardless of draft position or which team they went to. I like the way Luck is progressing and believe he will continue to improve. Could he ever hit Rodgers level? Maybe. But I am hoping he does not have to as if Grig continues to build this team the way we all hope then he won't have to be the best QB in the game to win the ring.

[MJD42]

11 ints and 5 lost fumbles.  Seems without argument that he can take better care of the ball.

He is on pace to equal or maybe even surpass his 23 turnovers from his rookie season. 

[jskinnz]

The same could be said of any quarterback not named Rodgers or Brady.  His interception % ranks very high all-time and the fumbles are, in part, a function of the amount of pressure he sees.  I don't disagree that he can improve but the narrative that Luck is turnover prone is absolute nonsense.

 

Absolute nonsense?  No but I do think I could have stated that differently.  His decision making needs to be better.  He needs to do a better job of learning when the defense has won a play. Many of his turnovers have come from forcing a play or trying to keep it alive including some of his fumbles.  On top of his actual turnovers there were several really bad throws or decisions that did not turn into TO's but easily could have.  

 

As I said in my first post - there is not a QB I would rather have in the league than Luck.  He will be the standard against QB's of his generations are measured.  That is particularly so if he cuts down on his mistakes.

[Bobbycovert]

Absolute nonsense?  No but I do think I could have stated that differently.  His decision making needs to be better.  He needs to do a better job of learning when the defense has won a play. Many of his turnovers have come from forcing a play or trying to keep it alive including some of his fumbles.  On top of his actual turnovers there were several really bad throws or decisions that did not turn into TO's but easily could have.  

 

As I said in my first post - there is not a QB I would rather have in the league than Luck.  He will be the standard against QB's of his generations are measured.  That is particularly so if he cuts down on his mistakes.

 

Yea, I had trouble with the "turnover prone" label more than anything.  I agree with what you're saying.  I don't want him to revert to playing ultra-safe because I think it unnecessarily cuts down on his ability to make plays (the good far outweighs the bad IMO), but I would love to see him become more of a "situational risk taker", if that makes sense.

[Thewholefnshow28]

When it comes to his interceptions I would really like to see them broken down by how many were actually tipped and where the LOS was when he threw it.  I forget who brought this up but throwing a pick when you are in the redzone and within your 20 yard line is a heck of a lot different then throwing a deep ball to the endzone when you are at the 50.  Some interceptions just hurt more than others.  

 

Also, he does face a heck of a lot of pressure behind our offensive line.

 

Now if he was throwing 20 touchdowns with 15 picks every year I would be worried, but the guy makes plays and is leading the league in yards and second in touchdowns behind a lackluster offensive line and little production from the running game.

[GoColts8818]

11 ints and 5 lost fumbles. Seems without argument that he can take better care of the ball.

100% correct. A number of those turnovers have come when he's trying to make a play rather than just admitting he's besten on a play and taking a sack. I remember Peyton saying the hardest thing he ever had to learn was that a sack wasn't a bad play. If Luck can learn that his turnovers would go way down.

[Smash Mouth]

100% correct. A number of those turnovers have come when he's trying to make a play rather than just admitting he's besten on a play and taking a sack. I remember Peyton saying the hardest thing he ever had to learn was that a sack wasn't a bad play. If Luck can learn that his turnovers would go way down.

He is already very good at emotionally moving on after mistakes but its in the moment and not making the mistake.  This should come with experience and maturity.  We talk about him like he should be a 5+ year veteran.  He gets compared to the greats who have all had teams with better personnel are one time or another than Luck has.  There were times on Sunday that the GB made Brady look ordinary because they were getting pressure and hitting him. Luck goes through that every game it seems.