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my draft success theory


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No I disagree they zeroed in on some studs some teams past on

 

Not really. Fluker was an obvious choice with their hole at RT. Te'o was another obvious pick. Allen was a first round talent who dropped to the 3rd round. Another easy choice for them. Nobody else really stood out.

 

It's not like our 2012 draft where we picked up few under the radar guys like Hilton and Ballard.

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There is also the "theory" that you can't judge a Draft truly until you're 3 years into a class so see how we stand there. You'd also have to be pretty obstinate to dismiss the idea that picking at the top of each round has an effect as Dustin suggests.

 

I'd add too that it's impossible to examine the draft in a vacuum, SD also changed HC which would have a marked effect on the overall success of the team and consequently on the performance of their rookies. 

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it may be just a theory but when Tom telesco was here we Nailed the draft. The next year he is at San Diego they nail the draft.coincidentally we had a lower Draft grade. I know it's a little early to tell but couldnt help connconnecting the dots.

Any opinions.

This is not a theory, just a half baked hypothesis at best.

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I know it's too early to tell butt I previously stated but in time my educated guess might serve to be true. This doesn't mean grigson can't have success without him. I'm just stating what could go down as one of the best draft class ever with fleener,allen, hilton,ballard, chap,and Andrew. had a big drop off the following. We will know in a couple years.

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Grigs set the bar too high in 2012. It's not often you draft 5 starters, 6 if you count Chap, in a single draft. Give this one time. Seems he focused more on FA than draft last year though I will say that.

We didn't draft 5 starters in 2012....we had a roster that allowed/forced us to play 5 rookies.  They made the most of their opportunity, but they still had an opportunity they wouldn't have gotten many places.  There certainly was not the opportunity for 5 rookies to come in and start on this team.  The Chargers had holes to fill and cap issues (sound familiar?) in 2013.  They were fortunate to draft for need and have a degree of success - but the rookies had to have an opportunity to play for this conversation to matter. 

 

To the OP:  Do the early returns suggest that Fluker, Teo, Allen will have a better career than Werner, Thornton, Holmes?  Yes, but you can't compare the opportunity that each was given (other than Thornton).  

 

Such circular stuff, really.

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it may be just a theory but when Tom telesco was here we Nailed the draft. The next year he is at San Diego they nail the draft.coincidentally we had a lower Draft grade. I know it's a little early to tell but couldnt help connconnecting the dots.

Any opinions.

Grigson has a lot to learn about drafting that is for sure.  What I would be interested in learning is if Grigson and the Colts have joined BLESTO or National or if they get all their scouting information on their own.

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Good theory. I think it has more to do with the positions we picked.  2012 we did many skilled position players.  If you look at the non-skilled players we drafted, they did next to nothing.  So you go to 2013 and we get all non-skilled players. Takes them longer to get playing at a level.  No doubt, the 2012 had more talent for us.  So I think it is  just a positional difference.

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Believe in Grigs!

Why?  Unlike many on this forum, I didn't and don't expect a first time GM to come in and not make any mistakes, it's like any other job, you get better as you gain experience.  But that being said, he hasn't done anything extroidinary to make anyone think that he has it all figured out either.

 

To me, he seems too reactionary at this point.  It's possible he has a plan for how he wants to build the team and I just don't see it.

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I realize Grigson was working with a much lower draft spot in 2013, and I think he managed to get decent value in each round based on each player's draft grade...with one glaring exception.  In the 3rd round he reached for Hugh Thornton who had a 6th-round grade from NFL.com and a 5th round grade from NFLDraftScout.com.

 

With the benefit of hindsight, the better move would have been to trade up to the Chief's pick at the top of the 3rd round (trading away the Colt's 3rd round picks in 2013 & 2014) to select Larry Warford.  He was well worth two 3rd round picks, as PFF rated him the 4th best OG in the league in 2013 and named him Offensive Rookie of the Year.

 

This is how I wished Grigson would have drafted:
 
Round 1 - Pick 24:   Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State -- already one of the Vikings top two DBs in his rookie season
 
Round 3 - Pick 63:  Indy deals 2013 3rd round + 2014 3rd round to move up and get Larry Warford, G, Kentucky  
 
Round 4 - Pick 121:  Jesse Williams, DT/DE, Alabama  - or -  William Gholston, DE, Michigan State
 
Round 6 - Pick 192: Montori Hughes, NT, Tennesee-Martin  --  No reaching, and no need to give up 2014 4th round.
 
Round 7 - Pick 230: Tony Jefferson, SS, Oklahoma - Safety depth.
 
Round 7 - Pick 253: Robert Lester, FS, Alabama - More safety depth.
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I wanted Williams over Chapman simply because he provides more of a pass rush without losing run stopping ability plus he can play 3-4 DE and Nose, Warford I liked but considered him more of an early 2nd round pick...did not want him in the first, Knew he would have some trouble with quicker DT's and double moves, i just never saw the hype with Hughes, He has played well for a late round pick though

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