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Colts @ 49ers Game Day Thread


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    • Only thing I understood from that exercise is that only two NFL franchises didn't make any draft day trade at all - Chargers and Dolphins.  
    • Exactly, that's what I'd be getting as well if I decide to pay for this season. That's probably the best for outsiders, however I think that product works differently for US residents.
    • Here's a thread about every team's value gained/lost via trades in the draft this year(the guy includes various different charts):    Depending on the chart used the Colts have gained somewhere between 2nd-3d round value(this is according to the modern analytics based value charts - Stuart, Overthecap, PFF charts) or an early 6th round value according to the classic old school trade charts Jimmy Johnson or Rich Hill charts.    So what can we conclude based on those evaluations? The value is much closer on the old school charts thus it's very likely the teams are using the old school charts rather than modern analytics based charts... or at least Ballard is insisting on using those when trading back.    In general, if you believe in modern day draft value analytics, the draft is a great place to gain an advantage... and in general - trading back is a great idea. The reason according to those charts the Colts gained a day 2 pick in this draft is because we traded back 3 times and the value of that extra capital far outweighs the small drop in draft position(8 spots in the second, 20 spots in the 5th).     On a sidenote - according both the value charts and the trade charts the Texans lost a TON of value by trading up to 3. The analytics charts are brutal for them - they lost the equivalent of the no. 1 pick in the draft + more... the traditional charts are a bit more mild but still think they lost a high 1st round pick in that trade. 
    • I think this post by you is far,  FAR more reasonable than your original post.      The bottom line is the Colts have a lot of big question marks,  a lot of unknowns.     There are question marks all across the coaching staff.   How good are any of them?    There are question marks all across the roster.    There are question marks on the Colts top players who have been injured.   Nelson, Leonard, Taylor,  Kelly.    And there are question marks with all our draft picks and free agents.     Way, way, WAY too many questions.   And with so many questions, some of the answers are not going to go the Colts way.      Im on record as seeing 7 wins.   Could the Colts win more?   Yes,  but I think it’s unlikely.   Could the Colts make the playoffs?    I think it would take a near miracle even with an easy schedule.   I think all 4 teams in the AFC East are better.   I think all 4 teams in the AFC North are better.   And I think 3 teams in the AFC West Are better.   And I think JVille is the big favorite in the South.   That’s 12 AFC teams that I think are better.   So I think a path to the Wild Card is as small as possible.   Perhaps not impossible, but a real long shot.    All that said, I think the Colts long term prospects are really good.  I like our future and I think AR is the kind of talent whose talent could make the Colts leapfrog over many of the teams in front of the Colts this year.   Richardson could eventually be the Colts Mahomes, or Burrow, or Herbert, or Hurts.    And if that happens — good times ahead!    
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