Article: Luck and Wilson won't keep up with RG3 [Merge]

[dgambill]

That was a very very poorly written article. I really think and hope RG3 has a great year...I really like the guy...wouldn't have been overly upset if we took him..but that was terrible writing. I wish there was an unlike for someone even linking this article to the forum because that is sinful to even give this guy hits on his site for that drivel. I don't understand why we have to attack every article that doesn't say we or AL is the second coming of Tom Brady but I also don't understand why we even need to be made aware of these article that aren't even written by actual reporters or analyst with at least some credintials. There was no reason to even post this....and yes...probably no reason for me to read and write this.

[Hamboning Will Save URLife]

Yeah, you're right! Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson won't be able to keep up with RG3's INJURIES, and that's about it.

[unitaswestand]

I think RGIII suffers from the same things Tebow does which is over exposure. RGIII seems like a decent guy.  But it almost seems like there is a mandate that EVERYONE has to make him out to be the next great thing.

 

Well, I take that back. RGIII goes along with it, having press conferences, advertisements, etc.

 

I look forward to this season when the read option is offset and running QBs like that are taken out.  Annoys me.  I enjoy a good passer. I couldn't care less if a QB is a great running QB too.

[BPM_Colt]

Everybody has their own opinion I guess.. Just have to hope our team shuts up all the media again. Seems like it will be a little bit until we get rid of the doubters..

[Warhorse]

There are a lot of things you can hide, but jealousy is pretty hard to disguise.

[John Dee]

This is slop...     

 

 

http://network.yardbarker.com/all_sports/article_external/russell_wilson_and_andrew_luck_wont_keep_up_with_rg3_in_2013/14141135

[AFCSouth]

Griffin, Luck, Kaepernick, Wilson, Tannehill, and some other young QBs who can move are making the league interesting. On the other extreme I really enjoy watching the future Hall of Famers like Rodgers, Peyton, Brady and Brees, and the next level down like Eli and Matt Ryan. Most of the rest of teams have boring, mediocre pure passers who really don't throw well and won't run at all.

I wish all of these young well, by I really think that Luck will rise above the rest and still be playing in 10-15 years if he elects to do so.

[crazycolt1]

What is all the propaganda about RGIII ?

I think he is a good quarterback , but ESPN. , and the other goofy bloggers , are putting this guy on a pedestal after only one season.

He didn't even get through a whole season!

[ColtJ82]

And to think the 4 letter has hired him away from the Star... oh well... match made in, uh, heaven?

That would be Mike Wells, not Brad. Brad Wells (who was being referred to) is a glorified blogger for the website Stampede Blue.

[oldunclemark]

I think Russell Wilson (even without Percy H.)  will have a better year that Robert becauser you cant get a good hit on Wilson...

 

..and he doesn't start the year with a iffy knee...

 

 

Meanwhile,  Luck got new linemen and a big new receiver....

 

    If a rookie QB throws for 4,300 yards hitting 54% of his passes...what if he hits 64% the next year?

 

Just asking.

[schwamm]

That would be Mike Wells, not Brad. Brad Wells (who was being referred to) is a glorified blogger for the website Stampede Blue.

Gotcha.

[Narcosys]

What is all the propaganda about RGIII ?

I think he is a good quarterback , but ESPN. , and the other goofy bloggers , are putting this guy on a pedestal after only one season.

Thats no different than some espn analysts, bloggers, and colts fans do to Luck

[oldunclemark]

  But why would a guy who runs somewhat of a modified college offense (read option) and didnt finish the year due to a knee injury

 

be considered to have a more promising fututre than two guys who ran conventonal offenses and ended the year 100% healthy???

 

Style over substance??

[stat2883]

I look at it this way...and I'm sure given the audience it won't be an overly popular opinion. ;)

If I had to build a gameplan as an offensive coordinator, I would choose RG3 as my QB simply because it opens up so many other options and you don't lose that much from an ability standpoint as a passer. Which means I do think Luck is a better passer...I'm not blind after all.

If I was a defensive coordinator trying to prepare a gameplan...I would much rather have to defend Luck than Griffin for the same reasons. There are so many other things you have to account for when defending Griffin that it puts a huge stress on your defense (in particular the front 7).

Yes Luck is a better passer, but Griffin presents unique challenges for a defense that Luck just can't do - at least not to the same degree. I think the infatuation with Griffin is what he can potentially become that hasn't really been seen yet in the NFL, where most already assume we know what Luck can be and its nothing that hasn't been seen before.

And to clarify because I know people are going to latch onto that "hasn't really been seen yet in the NFL" statement; Yes there have been similar talents to Griffin in the league, but the people running their offenses weren't nearly as creative when it came to schemes, play design/progression, or overall gameplans.

So, while I agree that Luck was the safer and more conventional pick, the potential Griffin represents is very intriguing but it comes with a health risk in how he plays the game.

....hasn't all this been said before?

[oldunclemark]

stat..

 

what you state elequently assumes that defense wont figure out the read option...which Robert G. runs while Wilson and Luck dont...

 

Lots of people WANT to believe that the read-option will revolutionize football...

 

...but defensive co-ordinators have had 5-6 months to defense it now..

 

Wilson's composure, accuracy and scrambling ability and Luck's strength, mobility  and game leadership will prove more difficult to defense..  

[stat2883]

what you state elequently assumes that defense wont figure out the read option...which Robert G. runs while Wilson and Luck dont...

see the "defending the read option" thread if you haven't already. If you already have and you still feel that way, then we can just leave it at that

Could I be wrong? Sure I could, but I've seen enough of both QBs and their offenses to be comfortable with my opinion as it stands today.

[oldunclemark]

 

  ^{stat ......The guy who brought in the Wildcat was comfortable with it, tooo..after on season.,.}

 ^{fair enough}

^{I do not see the otehr thread but I will look for it . Let me leave you with this....We havent 'seen enough' of any of the 3....}

^{We havent seen Luck, Wilson or Griffin (or Kapernick) yet if you understand the NFL..}

 

^{You cant spend the off-season game planning rookies. But you can spend the off-season game-planning second year players because you have a dozen or more NFL tapes on them...}

^{No one has ever come up with an offense that cant be defensed....Professional defensive co-ordinators catch up to you.}

^{I belive that RG3 and Kapernick are a touch more scheme than skill while Wilson and Luck are a little more skill than scheme.}

 

^{we will see}

[stat2883]

wildcat...apples and oranges

seen enough? I was careful to add the words "as it stands today" since its only been one season for these guys

If you're goal is to just stop the RO, then yeah it can be done - nothing that can't be defensed. You'll be vulnerable to a lot of other stuff too. Its all laid out in that thread. I'm pretty sure there's nothing you're going to say that I haven't heard or seen before and taken into account.

as you say...we'll see.

[ReMeDy]

I foresee rg3 tearing his acl agian ... Oops to soon ?

 

When that happens, even I will be able to keep up with him.

[Big Red]

Wow.  There's 6 minutes I'll never get back (slow reader).  Another totally useless opinion - A llama beats an alpaca in highstakes poker seven out of eleven times when the dealer is from a country south of the 49th parallel.   

[Luck2Wayne12]

stat..

 

what you state elequently assumes that defense wont figure out the read option...which Robert G. runs while Wilson and Luck dont...

 

Lots of people WANT to believe that the read-option will revolutionize football...

 

...but defensive co-ordinators have had 5-6 months to defense it now..

 

Wilson's composure, accuracy and scrambling ability and Luck's strength, mobility  and game leadership will prove more difficult to defense..  

FYI

 

Wilson runs the Read Option offense. 

[John Waylon]

He's right. Totally, 100% right.

 

While bob's mobility, effectiveness, and lack of ability as a passer become more and more apparent, Luck and Wilson simply will not be able to keep up with that decline.

 

It's just too bad our QB isn't going to decline with the media darling... We busted this time. Maybe next time we'll get it right, guys.

 

Woe is us. Woe is us.

[Drastik]

He's right. Totally, 100% right.

 

While bob's mobility, effectiveness, and lack of ability as a passer become more and more apparent, Luck and Wilson simply will not be able to keep up with that decline.

 

It's just too bad our QB isn't going to decline with the media darling... We busted this time. Maybe next time we'll get it right, guys.

 

Woe is us. Woe is us.

I don't quite understand you're statement here...

 

How much more apparent can RG3's mobility become? He led all players in yards per carry last year, as well as leading all QB's in rushing yards with over 800.

 

Also not sure how much more apparent his effectiveness could be, he broke or came close to several rookie records for QB's that measure efficiency:

 

• Highest passer rating, rookie, season: 102.4, Robert Griffin III 2012
• Youngest player, 158.3 (perfect) passer rating, game: Robert Griffin III (22 years, 280 days) Nov 22, 2012
• Best touchdown pass–interception ratio, rookie season: 4.0-1, Robert Griffin III, 2012
• Lowest percentage passes had intercepted rookie season: 1.27 Robert Griffin III 2012

 

Lastly, you touched on RG3's "lack of ability as a passer"... I'm not sure why you came to the conclusion that RG3 lacks ability... 

 

I think right now the only knock on RG3 is his durability... which is a VERY valid knock... but c'mon guys... let's not just make things up...

 

I think any team in the league would be thrilled to have either Luck or RG3 on their team... so whats with all the hate? If anything, I'd argue that... in terms of raw passing ability... RG3 is right behind Luck... then, after a considerable drop off, you've got Wilson and Kaepernick. 

[Dustin]

I don't quite understand you're statement here...

 

How much more apparent can RG3's mobility become? He led all players in yards per carry last year, as well as leading all QB's in rushing yards with over 800.

 

Also not sure how much more apparent his effectiveness could be, he broke or came close to several rookie records for QB's that measure efficiency:

 

• Highest passer rating, rookie, season: 102.4, Robert Griffin III 2012
• Youngest player, 158.3 (perfect) passer rating, game: Robert Griffin III (22 years, 280 days) Nov 22, 2012
• Best touchdown pass–interception ratio, rookie season: 4.0-1, Robert Griffin III, 2012
• Lowest percentage passes had intercepted rookie season: 1.27 Robert Griffin III 2012

 

Lastly, you touched on RG3's "lack of ability as a passer"... I'm not sure why you came to the conclusion that RG3 lacks ability... 

 

I think right now the only knock on RG3 is his durability... which is a VERY valid knock... but c'mon guys... let's not just make things up...

 

I think any team in the league would be thrilled to have either Luck or RG3 on their team... so whats with all the hate? If anything, I'd argue that... in terms of raw passing ability... RG3 is right behind Luck... then, after a considerable drop off, you've got Wilson and Kaepernick. 

 

 

 Wilson is a much better passers than RG3.

[John Waylon]

I see all these people claiming the read option can't be defended, and I can't help but wonder what it's like to have only been an NFL fan since 2010...

 

Let me tell you guys who think the read option "can't be adequately defended" a little story.

 

There was this revolution in the NFL one time some years back. It was touted as the next big thing. The scheme that would revolutionize the way offensive football worked, and would just put all defenses to shame. It was wild, it was radical, it was like nothing we'd ever seen before. They even gave it a fitting name to go with just how wild it was:

 

The wildcat.

 

The Dolphins and Tony Sparano were the first to blow our collective minds with it. After a disastrous 1-15 season the year before, they used it in an early season game against the previously 16-0 New England Patriots. The Patriots defense didn't know whether to poop their pants of go blind out of fear on the field, The Dolphins rode it to an unlikely win over the Patriots, as they did many other times that season en route to a division championship, and a playoff berth. 

 

Yes, things looked good in Tuna Town. Fresh off a division title, with this revolutionary offense in it's second year, and other teams such as the Broncos implementing their creation it seemed the sky was the limit.

 

And then the games started. While still effective at confusing defenses momentarily, the wildcat found itself less and less effective. It didn't gain the yards, produce the scores, or even really help move the ball. 

 

In the third season after it's debut, it had gone the way of the dinosaur. 

 

 

 

I'll tell another story. 

 

There once was this fellow who played at the passer position. He liked to run a lot, too. He had spent some time away from the league for some bad things he'd been involved with. His name? Michael Vick. 

 

He returned to the league as a backup. But an injury forced him into the starting spot, and he had an outstanding season. The best of his career. After being out of the league for some years. There were many claiming he was even MVP worthy that season, and truth told, he was considerable for the honor. He made all the plays. With his arm, and with his legs. 

 

The following season, again, the sky was the limit. The basement was the reality. 

 

 

 

I'll borrow and bend a popular quote from a popular old movie to explain to you what happened in these cases, as will happen in the case of the read option:

 

Defenses will, uh, find a way.

 

Defenses don't adapt mid-season. That's why guys who are forced into starting roles at the QB position sometimes find success despite no real abundance of skill at the position. Guys like Derek Anderson, Matt Cassell, Michael Vick. Defenses were prepared in the offseason for a different player, and when that player was no longer meant to be defended, teams played it safer, and tried simply not to beat themselves. 

 

Once defenses were constructed to defend them, well, I shouldn't have to tell you that none of the aforementioned names haven't had outstanding seasons beyond their initial success. 

 

The brunt of defensive planning isn't done in the week leading up to a game. That's the time for tweaks and fine tuning. The brunt of the work is done during the spring and summer months. When hours upon hours of gamefilm is studied, over and over. A good defensive staff is going to break down an offense and a player and it's tendencies to a minute T. They're gong to have a better idea of what a QB is going to do in a given situation better than he is.

 

When defenses have a full year to prepare for you, it's a whole different ballgame. NOTHING, has ever escaped that. That's what separates the one year wonders like Vick, like the wildcat, from the mainstays at the top, who are simply good enough to rise above it. 

 

Gimmicks do not work in the NFL. They may for a time, but once you've showed it, the clock is ticking. 

 

Just like everything before it, the read option is going to see it's effectiveness drop. Will it go the way of the wildcat? Likely not. It's not pure gimmickery as the wildcat was. But to expect it to revolutionize offense, and be the vehicle of success is foolish.

 

The harsh truth is this:

 

Your QB needs to be protected, He is the key to success for your team, Even when you've got the best running back in the league, it STILL takes a QB to be successful. These read option QB's take too many hits. griffin's knees are both already hamburger meat. These NFL linebackers and safeties aren't just average college players. These guys are the real deal. They hit too hard to mess with. And there is no player on the field they will hit any harder than the QB, because, as barbaric as it was, when Gregg Williams said "Kill the head and the body will die" he is correct. Take out the QB, and the game changes significantly. 

 

The read option gives way to too much damage to be done to the QB. 

[John Waylon]

I don't quite understand you're statement here...

 

How much more apparent can RG3's mobility become? He led all players in yards per carry last year, as well as leading all QB's in rushing yards with over 800.

 

Also not sure how much more apparent his effectiveness could be, he broke or came close to several rookie records for QB's that measure efficiency:

 

• Highest passer rating, rookie, season: 102.4, Robert Griffin III 2012
• Youngest player, 158.3 (perfect) passer rating, game: Robert Griffin III (22 years, 280 days) Nov 22, 2012
• Best touchdown pass–interception ratio, rookie season: 4.0-1, Robert Griffin III, 2012
• Lowest percentage passes had intercepted rookie season: 1.27 Robert Griffin III 2012

 

Lastly, you touched on RG3's "lack of ability as a passer"... I'm not sure why you came to the conclusion that RG3 lacks ability... 

 

I think right now the only knock on RG3 is his durability... which is a VERY valid knock... but c'mon guys... let's not just make things up...

 

I think any team in the league would be thrilled to have either Luck or RG3 on their team... so whats with all the hate? If anything, I'd argue that... in terms of raw passing ability... RG3 is right behind Luck... then, after a considerable drop off, you've got Wilson and Kaepernick. 

 

It must be so difficult to throw screen passes and short crossing routes where the ball is in the air for 4-6 yards. 

[Drastik]

 Wilson is a much better passers than RG3.

Disagree. 

 

I know a lot of folks on here love stats so instead of going in-depth on why I think Wilson is far inferior to Luck and RG3 as a passer, I'll just throw some stats out.

 

RG3 had a higher completion % than Wilson

RG3 had a higher QB rating than Wilson (both standard and QBR)

RG3 had a higher yards per attempt average than Wilson

Russell Wilson threw TWICE as many interceptions as RG3, they both attempted the exact same amount of passes

 

Thats just raw passing data, we could discuss further how Wilson had the best defense out of all the rookie QB's last year while RG3 had the worst. We could also talk about how RG3 and Luck were the sole catalysts to their offenses while Wilson thrived after defenses focused on Marshawn....  Granted RG3 had Morris, however if you swap teams between Morris and Ballard, there probably wouldn't be much of a difference.

[Drastik]

It must be so difficult to throw screen passes and short crossing routes where the ball is in the air for 4-6 yards. 

The average "air yardage" on passes (meaning how far QB's throw a ball in the air on average) in the NFL is only 4 yards. 

 

Our very own Andrew Luck averaged 4.22, which is slightly above average. The league leader was Kaepernick who was just a hair over 5 air yards per pass.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2012/

 

A lot of people seem to equate high passing yardage numbers with longer throws, completely disregarding passing attempts...

[Dustin]

Disagree. 

 

I know a lot of folks on here love stats so instead of going in-depth on why I think Wilson is far inferior to Luck and RG3 as a passer, I'll just throw some stats out.

 

RG3 had a higher completion % than Wilson

RG3 had a higher QB rating than Wilson (both standard and QBR)

RG3 had a higher yards per attempt average than Wilson

Russell Wilson threw TWICE as many interceptions as RG3, they both attempted the exact same amount of passes

 

Thats just raw passing data, we could discuss further how Wilson had the best defense out of all the rookie QB's last year while RG3 had the worst. We could also talk about how RG3 and Luck were the sole catalysts to their offenses while Wilson thrived after defenses focused on Marshawn....  Granted RG3 had Morris, however if you swap teams between Morris and Ballard, there probably wouldn't be much of a difference.

 

Wilson didn't run the most QB friendly offense of the past 5 years.

 

RG3 ran more play action passes then any player in the league. 

 

When he used play-action he averaged 11.8 YPA (insane)

 

When there was no threat of play-action he only averaged 5.8 YPAC (well below league average).

 

Combine this with an offense filled with nothing but crossing routes and dump off passes and you have the most QB friendly system in the league.

[Dustin]

The average "air yardage" on passes (meaning how far QB's throw a ball in the air on average) in the NFL is only 4 yards. 

 

Our very own Andrew Luck averaged 4.22, which is slightly above average. The league leader was Kaepernick who was just a hair over 5 air yards per pass.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2012/

 

A lot of people seem to equate high passing yardage numbers with longer throws, completely disregarding passing attempts...

 

8 out of 39 is slightly above average? lol

[Drastik]

Wilson didn't run the most QB friendly offense of the past 5 years.

 

RG3 ran more play action passes then any player in the league. 

 

When he used play-action he averaged 11.8 YPA (insane)

 

When there was no threat of play-action he only averaged 5.8 YPAC (well below league average).

 

Combine this with an offense filled with nothing but crossing routes and dump off passes and you have the most QB friendly system in the league.

The Seahawks actually mimicked the Redskins offense mid-season (shortly before Wilson became "good")

 

Also, it seems like you're criticizing RG3 because his coaching staff did an outstanding job at molding the offense to his strengths. 

 

The Redskins had a top 5 offense last year when half their team was on IR. You'd think if a guy made running a top 5 NFL offense look easy and efficient, he'd be praised... not torn down. Lol.

[Dustin]

The Seahawks actually mimicked the Redskins offense mid-season (shortly before Wilson became "good")

 

 

Not really. They used more read-option but that's it.

 

Also, it seems like you're criticizing RG3 because his coaching staff did an outstanding job at molding the offense to his strengths. 

 

I didn't criticize. I just said they ran a QB friendly system.

[Drastik]

8 out of 39 is slightly above average? lol

If it makes you feel more comfortable, I'll say Luck was top 10.. it looks better that way anyway.

 

However, Russell Wilson was #3 and RG3 was #9... so there isnt much of a difference.

[Dustin]

If it makes you feel more comfortable, I'll say Luck was top 10.. it looks better than way anyway.

 

However, Russell Wilson was #3 and RG3 was #9... so there isnt much of a difference.

 

That only counts passes that were completed. Not passes that were incompleted. 

 

Also, Colts receivers were bottom 5 in yards after catch.

[Luck2Wayne12]

That only counts passes that were completed. Not passes that were incompleted. 

 

[basketballsteve]

The author is soooo confident in RG3 he uses a capital "IF" in his fifth sentence to qualify his confidence in RG3 performance. I can do that too. Andrew Luck will be the best QB in the NFL IF his o-line allows the fewest sacks this year and is in the top 10 in run blocking. See pretty easy if you use the right qualifier.

[Stephen]

Not really. They used more read-option but that's it.

 pete carrol admitted they took some ideas from redskins offense

 

I didn't criticize. I just said they ran a QB friendly system.

[Dustin]

Not really. They used more read-option but that's it.

pete carrol admitted they took some ideas from redskins offense

I didn't criticize. I just said they ran a QB friendly system.

Yeah, but the read option was basically it. They really didn't use as much play action or crossing patterns.

[stat2883]

ugh...read option does not equal wildcat. To attach the term "offense" to the wildcat, read option, or pistol as it is used in the NFL is not accurate. Don't mistake a QB's style of play for schematic deficiencies. There's a whole thread on this. And the wildcat didn't die, it was used last year too - teams just pick their spots *if* they have the personnel to run it effectively. Its not an offense, just a formation. The reason it was termed an offense by mainstream media was because it was about the only way Miami could move the ball that season.

The read option is a single type of play, so saying you can stop the read option is like saying you can stop the sweep. The difference though is from there you can build off that look into a variety of plays, both running and passing. QB doesn't need to run or take those hits. My opinion is that the RO will evolve into basically a sub package of plays as part of a full offense, *if* you have the personnel to run it. If no more Wilsons or Keapernicks come into the league any time soon, then yeah it will fade because guys like Flacco or whoever can't run it as effectively.

[MakeItWayne]

I dont get why 1 of them HAS to be better than the others. Why can't Luck, RG3, Wilson, and Kaepernick be the Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers of the next generation of QBs?