NY Times preview -- Colts 2012 (8/28)

[Superman]

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/indianapolis-colts-2012-n-f-l-season-preview/

BOTTOM LINE

The Colts will certainly be better than they were last season, but they have a lot of groundwork still to lay. The most important piece is in place (Andrew Luck), and it helps that they’re already cultivating long-term receiving targets for him. But there are still needs in the backfield and offensive line, and the entire defense is frighteningly thin.

Predicted Finish: 3rd AFC South

Long read, but some good and realistic stuff. One of the better previews I've read so far. Still has some gaffes, like saying that Jerry Hughes played in a 3-4 at TCU (he didn't, for the 954th time). But this preview kind of acknowledges the changes that were made, at the same predicting that they'll work out in our favor.

[StewieG]

3rd in the AFC south would put us about 7-9 I believe. Right?

[Superman]

3rd in the AFC south would put us about 7-9 I believe. Right?

Depends on the rest of the division. The Jags were 5-11 last year, but we were the worst division in the league.

[StewieG]

Depends on the rest of the division. The Jags were 5-11 last year, but we were the worst division in the league.

Yeah thats true. Im thinking 3rd place will be either 6-10 or 7-9. Not to bad of a prediction I guess.

[PrincetonTiger]

it will be ahead of someone

[HungarianColtsFan]

Nice article, giving a good in-depth analysis of Colts.

Right now I would accept 3rd place...

[mark5362]

not sold on tennessee or jacksonville at this point.

[MR. Blueblood]

I've said all along that we will have 5-7 wins this year which shoukd be good enough for 3rd place in the AFC South.

[Kenny]

Thats one spot higher than last year . We could sneak to 2nd depending on what Titans team we play(The one that beat the ravens last year or the one that is the normal Titans).

[Moncrief]

On my Madden the Packers won their division at 6-10 so anything is possible

[Canadian.Coltsfan]

On my Madden the Packers won their division at 6-10 so anything is possible

Wow now that would be shocking if the cheeseheads didn't win atleast 10 games and I mean ATLEAST. I'm trying to be realistic in my head so I'm not dissappointed later I'd say 5-7 wins is 3rd place in the south. 2nd in south is possible but very unlikely I think the titans will be pretty good. Locker looks good and CJ isn't coming off a holdout and they seem to always have a decent defense.

[Moncrief]

Wow now that would be shocking if the cheeseheads didn't win atleast 10 games and I mean ATLEAST. I'm trying to be realistic in my head so I'm not dissappointed later I'd say 5-7 wins is 3rd place in the south. 2nd in south is possible but very unlikely I think the titans will be pretty good. Locker looks good and CJ isn't coming off a holdout and they seem to always have a decent defense.

Yeah the whole NFC got hit hard with injuries but the Packers won the SB so go figure

[Manning->Luck]

That was a great read, the guy did his homework. Thanks for posting.

[southwest1]

Nice post Superman. The NY Times don't exactly roll off the tongue as typical analysis of NFL teams, but every paper has a sports, business, and entertainment section in it right?

"...Freeney’s and Mathis’s edge speed is the best thing this defense has going for it...Hopefully they can defer to Jerry Hughes, as well.The 2010 first-round pick has been a bust thus far. With none of the new major decision-makers in this organization having any ties to Hughes, this could be his do-or-die season. Hughes played in a quasi 3-4 at T.C.U. and figures to be more comfortable in this new scheme, but it’s wise to be skeptical of his prospects...Expect Pagano to use plenty of presnap disguises and overload blitz looks in obvious passing situations to compel offenses to play at a more hurried pace. Pagano can’t afford to have this pass rush be as anemic as it was in 2011. Otherwise, the Colt defense will yield a completion percentage greater than 70 for a second straight year...Antoine Bethea is underrated in all facets. He is great at entering the box or making open-field run stops, and he takes smart angles in coverage...The man Bethea would turn to is strong safety Tom Zbikowski, who played for Pagano in Baltimore.

Pretty solid analysis there. I have no problem with with what this reporter named Andy Benoit said at all.

[Coltsagent]

Why do we have to accept failure? Why? The only difference last year was the QB, now 3rd or last, again! Why cant I expect to reach the playoffs every year? Why cant I expect to be in the hunt for the SB? Why do we have to lower our standards from the last 10 years?

We got rid of the best player ever in exchange for mediocrity?

[RW87]

Colts to win division is set on bowmans at 29 to 1

What kind of value do you guys see here, if any?

May consider a long shot, but if this team can gel together early then we may be in for a surprise.

[John Waylon]

not sold on tennessee or jacksonville at this point.

This.

It's going to take a mammoth collapse by the Texans (And let's be honest here, such a thing is not at all out of the realm of possibility... This is the Texans we're talking about here.) for us to actually have a chance to win it, but what do the tackeys and jags have that we do not? o_O

[Qwiz]

This.

It's going to take a mammoth collapse by the Texans (And let's be honest here, such a thing is not at all out of the realm of possibility... This is the Texans we're talking about here.) for us to actually have a chance to win it, but what do the tackeys and jags have that we do not? o_O

Monster running games and a consistent defense, for starters. Also Tennessee has a head coach whose entire focus is the offensive line. I still think the Colts could end up above Jacksonville, though. Tennessee looks good on paper, just waiting to see if they can execute with their new QB.

[southwest1]

This.

It's going to take a mammoth collapse by the Texans (And let's be honest here, such a thing is not at all out of the realm of possibility... This is the Texans we're talking about here.) for us to actually have a chance to win it, but what do the tackeys and jags have that we do not? o_O

More than a chance John Waylon. I just watched WR #18 Lester Jean last night...Wow! and WR #16 Trindon Holiday...Another Wow!!! The Texans are gonna stampede the NFL this year. Just watch. They are for real. Underestimate them at your own peril. I'm very impressed with this squad. They are dripping and overflowing with talent IMO.

Brian Cushing looks fantastic at ILB position too. Kudos to DC Wade Phillips for making him flourish and excel there too.

[southwest1]

Why do we have to accept failure? Why? The only difference last year was the QB, now 3rd or last, again! Why cant I expect to reach the playoffs every year? Why cant I expect to be in the hunt for the SB? Why do we have to lower our standards from the last 10 years?

We got rid of the best player ever in exchange for mediocrity?

For 2 years, it will be brutal while we improve the o-line, acquire more quality corners, and learn to play superb special teams. Davis from Miami is a nice piece to the puzzle, but just 1 piece. Mediocrity is putting it nicely. Real Horseshoe fans aren't going anywhere. When your house burns down in a fire, that's when you discover who your friends are and whose in it for the longhaul. The Horseshoe will rise again. By year 3, the Colts will be competing for AFC South division titles again.

[The Peytonator]

Funny that the New York Times has a better breakdown of our team than say Sports Illustrated would probably have....although I have yet to read SI's. Just an educated guess.

I know this is sacreligious, but I'm thinking Houston is going to be the team that by about week 10, ESPN will be saying, 'Can they break the '72 Dolphins record?'

[NewColtsFan]

Why do we have to accept failure? Why? The only difference last year was the QB, now 3rd or last, again! Why cant I expect to reach the playoffs every year? Why cant I expect to be in the hunt for the SB? Why do we have to lower our standards from the last 10 years?

We got rid of the best player ever in exchange for mediocrity?

Well..... you don't have to 'accept' anything you don't want.

But the reality is the team has roughly $40 million in so-called 'dead money'.... money committed to players no longer on the team. The salary cap is $120 Mill. So, our roster will be roughly $80 Mill this year. From the perspective of salary, that's two-thirds of a normal roster. Pretty tough to compete when you're not able to buy roughly a 1/3 of a normal roster. That's a heckuva lot of talent we're not playing with.

But, the good news, we're only in salary cap heck for one year. Next year, we have the most money to spend in Free Agency. About $43 Million. Should be able to buy a fair amount of talent. But we need so many upgrades at so many positions, that even next year, we may not be great. We might make the playoffs, but I wouldn't expect a deep run. But, who knows?

That's a long way off. This year, I think we'll win 5-7 games. That's a big improvement over last year's 2-14.

So, we're talking about 2 possible years of disappointment. Do you know how many teams would kill to have only two poor years?

I think there are much better days in the Colt's future. Hope you'll see that soon as well...

[mystrymaster]

A very good preview and from a national outlet no less.

[gbrads_rants]

I see us winning at least seven games...our schedule isn't that tough this year......but Tennessee's Def is the real deal...I dont think we will beat them in either game but Jacksonville is awful... I think we will beat:

Minnesota (no Peterson)

Jax

Jets

Browns

Dolphins

Jax

Detroit

KC

[JoKeR]

Nice post Superman. The NY Times don't exactly roll off the tongue as typical analysis of NFL teams, but every paper has a sports, business, and entertainment section in it right?

"...Freeney’s and Mathis’s edge speed is the best thing this defense has going for it...Hopefully they can defer to Jerry Hughes, as well.The 2010 first-round pick has been a bust thus far. With none of the new major decision-makers in this organization having any ties to Hughes, this could be his do-or-die season. Hughes played in a quasi 3-4 at T.C.U. and figures to be more comfortable in this new scheme, but it’s wise to be skeptical of his prospects...Expect Pagano to use plenty of presnap disguises and overload blitz looks in obvious passing situations to compel offenses to play at a more hurried pace. Pagano can’t afford to have this pass rush be as anemic as it was in 2011. Otherwise, the Colt defense will yield a completion percentage greater than 70 for a second straight year...Antoine Bethea is underrated in all facets. He is great at entering the box or making open-field run stops, and he takes smart angles in coverage...The man Bethea would turn to is strong safety Tom Zbikowski, who played for Pagano in Baltimore.

Pretty solid analysis there. I have no problem with with what this reporter named Andy Benoit said at all.

Sounds like someone who is actually trying instead of just leaning on the name they work for.

[Kenny]

I see us winning at least seven games...our schedule isn't that tough this year......but Tennessee's Def is the real deal...I dont think we will beat them in either game but Jacksonville is awful... I think we will beat:

Minnesota (no Peterson)

Jax

Jets

Browns

Dolphins

Jax

Detroit

KC

I agree with this except Detroit right now(If Stafford stays healthy they beat us) and I believe we will split with Tennessee.

[John Waylon]

Monster running games and a consistent defense, for starters. Also Tennessee has a head coach whose entire focus is the offensive line. I still think the Colts could end up above Jacksonville, though. Tennessee looks good on paper, just waiting to see if they can execute with their new QB.

"monster running games"?

Is that what you just said?

Let's take the old "stroll down memory lane" because we've got some revisionist history going on here...

Here's where the Titans "monster running game" ranked in 2011:

Total Yards: 31st (1,438)

AVG YPC: 29th (3.8)

AVG YPG: 31st (89.9)

Rushing TD: 26th (8)

The Jags came in as follows:

Total Yards: 12th (1,970)

AVG YPC: 21st (4.0)

AVG YPG: 12th (123.1)

Rushing TD: 23rd (9)

"Monsters", eh?

I used to get worse monsters in my closet as a kid.

If you wanna talk about potential, sure. But to me, chris johnson belongs in a bin with Santa Clause, The Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy for "Things I used to believe in but now know to be merely fake."

And despite MJD being the leagues leading rusher last season the Jags offense was still pretty pedestrian and managed a mere 5 wins. And guess what? There's no MJD for them to rely on, now, and it doesn't look like there will be for a while...

The Jags WILL finish last in this division. Mark it now. And I don't see the logic of the Titans finishing ahead of us at all because they have an ugly line, an ugly group of backs (Both literally, and metaphorically. Chris johnson looks like he hasn't washed since the Clinton administration) and a QB who may turn out to be decent. But even if Locker DOES turn out to be the Titans next-gen QB, who is he gonna throw the ball to?

[gbrads_rants]

I agree with this except Detroit right now(If Stafford stays healthy they beat us) and I believe we will split with Tennessee.

I kinda expect Stafford to go down eventually...Thats why I drafted him and Peyton for insurance but splitting with Tennesse makes sense...just scared of their D

[Qwiz]

"monster running games"?

Is that what you just said?

Let's take the old "stroll down memory lane" because we've got some revisionist history going on here...

Here's where the Titans "monster running game" ranked in 2011:

Total Yards: 31st (1,438)

AVG YPC: 29th (3.8)

AVG YPG: 31st (89.9)

Rushing TD: 26th (8)

The Jags came in as follows:

Total Yards: 12th (1,970)

AVG YPC: 21st (4.0)

AVG YPG: 12th (123.1)

Rushing TD: 23rd (9)

"Monsters", eh?

I used to get worse monsters in my closet as a kid.

If you wanna talk about potential, sure. But to me, chris johnson belongs in a bin with Santa Clause, The Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy for "Things I used to believe in but now know to be merely fake."

And despite MJD being the leagues leading rusher last season the Jags offense was still pretty pedestrian and managed a mere 5 wins. And guess what? There's no MJD for them to rely on, now, and it doesn't look like there will be for a while...

The Jags WILL finish last in this division. Mark it now. And I don't see the logic of the Titans finishing ahead of us at all because they have an ugly line, an ugly group of backs (Both literally, and metaphorically. Chris johnson looks like he hasn't washed since the Clinton administration) and a QB who may turn out to be decent. But even if Locker DOES turn out to be the Titans next-gen QB, who is he gonna throw the ball to?

Look, I don't like the Titans or Jaguars either, but they have GREAT runningbacks, one down year does not mean a thing. Or have you forgotten Chris Johnson's 2,000 yard rushing campaign? Say what you want about CJ or MJD, but they are key components to their teams and they can lead them to wins this season, no doubt. Jake Locker will have Kenny Britt, CJ out of the backfield, and he also has a set of wheels on him, not to mention an o-line focused head coach. I didn't know how ugly someone is was going to be a factor in how well they play...since both Luck and CJ are pretty good players, I wouldn't use that particular argument. I already said that the Jaguars have a chance to finish last, but they also have a chance to beat the Colts this year, whether you believe it or not.

[Superman]

Look, I don't like the Titans or Jaguars either, but they have GREAT runningbacks, one down year does not mean a thing. Or have you forgotten Chris Johnson's 2,000 yard rushing campaign? Say what you want about CJ or MJD, but they are key components to their teams and they can lead them to wins this season, no doubt. Jake Locker will have Kenny Britt, CJ out of the backfield, and he also has a set of wheels on him, not to mention an o-line focused head coach. I didn't know how ugly someone is was going to be a factor in how well they play...since both Luck and CJ are pretty good players, I wouldn't use that particular argument. I already said that the Jaguars have a chance to finish last, but they also have a chance to beat the Colts this year, whether you believe it or not.

Have you forgotten how long ago that was? It was 2009. I mean, the Colts started 14-0 that year; are we carrying those results forward still?

I don't think he was saying anything negative about their backs; they both obviously have really good backs. But in the Titans case, they couldn't run the ball last year, and it wasn't all Chris Johnson's fault. Saying they have a great rushing attack is kind of living in the past. The Jags did have a good rushing attack (12th isn't great), but their offense was still terrible. JW called their offense "pedestrian," and that was being nice. And MJD isn't with the team, so it's hard to say what kind of impact his absence will have on their run game.

[throwing BBZ]

Why do we have to accept failure? Why? The only difference last year was the QB, now 3rd or last, again! Why cant I expect to reach the playoffs every year? Why cant I expect to be in the hunt for the SB? Why do we have to lower our standards from the last 10 years?

We got rid of the best player ever in exchange for mediocrity?

Well actually, we were touted as a Super Bowl contender most every year for ten years. Alas our fearless, happy foot, pouty faced leader was none other than a regular season, beat up the weak sisters, one and done playoff Loser 7 out of 11 times paper tiger.

My fee for rehabbing my neck is $26 Million Dollars.

[Kenny]

I kinda expect Stafford to go down eventually...Thats why I drafted him and Peyton for insurance but splitting with Tennesse makes sense...just scared of their D

No need to be. We beat them last year once with Orlovsky no reason why we cant do it with Luck.

[Gonzo]

Not to pile on, but it's looking more and more like MJDs hold out will last into the regular season. A similar scenario seemed to derail the titans running game.

[Qwiz]

Have you forgotten how long ago that was? It was 2009. I mean, the Colts started 14-0 that year; are we carrying those results forward still?

I don't think he was saying anything negative about their backs; they both obviously have really good backs. But in the Titans case, they couldn't run the ball last year, and it wasn't all Chris Johnson's fault. Saying they have a great rushing attack is kind of living in the past. The Jags did have a good rushing attack (12th isn't great), but their offense was still terrible. JW called their offense "pedestrian," and that was being nice. And MJD isn't with the team, so it's hard to say what kind of impact his absence will have on their run game.

Comparing a team's past results with a player's past results is like comparing apples and oranges. They are two completely different things, though who's to say the Colts won't go 14-0 this year? Lol but if and when MJD comes back, the offense is going to be better. They have a good wide receiver now and I think Gabbert is going to show progress. I never said they had a great offense, I'm just saying that they have runningbacks who can put up numbers. Their defenses, however, will remain competitive, as will Tennessee's offense this year, I think.

[Superman]

Comparing a team's past results with a player's past results is like comparing apples and oranges. They are two completely different things, though who's to say the Colts won't go 14-0 this year?

I'm just saying, 2009 is a long time ago. And given the fact that JW was talking about the Titans run game, and not Chris Johnson in particular (at least at first), it seems unreasonable to bring up his 2009 season. You might as well be talking about Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson. What Chris Johnson did in 2009 is just as irrelevant. It's much more relevant that the Titans were the second worst rushing team last season.

Lol but if and when MJD comes back, the offense is going to be better. They have a good wide receiver now and I think Gabbert is going to show progress. I never said they had a great offense, I'm just saying that they have runningbacks who can put up numbers. Their defenses, however, will remain competitive, as will Tennessee's offense this year, I think.

I could see that, if Gabbert is actually improved. But with MJD missing the entire preseason, and still not with the team a week and a half before the opener, we don't know how productive he'll be. With the way Chris Johnson played last season, it doesn't bode well for the Jags run game.

[Qwiz]

I'm just saying, 2009 is a long time ago. And given the fact that JW was talking about the Titans run game, and not Chris Johnson in particular (at least at first), it seems unreasonable to bring up his 2009 season. You might as well be talking about Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson. What Chris Johnson did in 2009 is just as irrelevant. It's much more relevant that the Titans were the second worst rushing team last season.

I could see that, if Gabbert is actually improved. But with MJD missing the entire preseason, and still not with the team a week and a half before the opener, we don't know how productive he'll be. With the way Chris Johnson played last season, it doesn't bode well for the Jags run game.

True, but CJ gained weight this offseason, which I guess could be a bad or a good thing. I think the Titans line is going to be better this season, and with a dual-threat quarterback in the backfield, Johnson should thrive like he did when he played with Young in that aforementioned 2,000 yard season. MJD is going to be very very rusty, and it sucks that he's out, otherwise the Jaguars would definitely look much better going against that horrible Minnesota Vikings team week one.