The team now VS the team moving forward

[bananabucket]

I can't decide if we are in an envious situation or an undesirable one.

 

Right now, our starting 22 (plus a few) looks like this:

 

QB: Luck

RB: Gore

TE: Allen, Fleener

WR: Johnson, Hilton, Moncrief

T: Castonzo, Cherlius

G: Herremans, Mewhort

C: Holmes

 

DE: Jones, Langford

NT: Chapman

ILB: Freeman, Jackson, Irving

OLB: Mathis, Cole, Walden, Newsome

CB: Davis, Toler, Butler

S: Adams, Lowery

 

On the plus side, we appear to be loaded for a SB run in the next season or two.  Our biggest immediate question marks are pretty clearly C and NT.  In my opinion, Holmes and Chapman are the only two starters who could be readily supplanted by our first round selection.  I'd go further to say that they are our only two starters who could be considered less than average caliber players.  So if you're one of the people who advocate drafting a day 1 starter, you better be hoping for a C/NT or I think you will be disappointed.

 

On the other hand... Right now we have quite a few newly-acquired, older stopgaps who will need replacing soon (Gore, Johnson, Herremans, Cole) and some aging guys of our own (Cherilus, Mathis, Jackson, Adams).  Taking into consideration which FAs are likely to return and which are not, is anyone comfortable about the near-future of the RB, WR3, RG, RT, OLB, CB2, or S positions?  And even though I personally feel comfortable with Irving/Freeman going forward, I'll throw ILB into the mix as well.  There are a TON of positions in which we will need replacements/upgrades in the coming 1-3 seasons.  The only spots we should feel comfortable about are QB, TE, WR1, WR2, LT, LG, DE, and CB1.

 

So what's the correct way to approach this draft?  Should we try to bolster the roster with impact players in positions of immediate need in hopes of contending now, or do we go the BPA route and try to avoid the multitude of glaring holes in the near future?

[jskinnz]

There are enough holes on this roster that I think BPA regardless of position (outside of QB) is the best way to build for not only this year but beyond.  No JAGs just to fill a need.  In 2015 CB is pretty well set but if Marcus Peters is the highest rated, difference making player on the board, I think you make that pick and don't look back. 

[horseshoeblue22]

I agree with most of the points in this thread, but I wouldnt be surprised if a rookie came in and earned a starting spot at RT or S as well. Cherilus has had knee problems and we dont know where his health is at. Dwight Lowery is in no way guaranteed a starting job. He could be beaten out by Winston Guy, Dewey MacDonald or a rookie if we land an impressive one.

I think Grigson will be under pressure to pick players that make an immediate impact. Right or wrong, he needs to nail down a contract extension before he starts thinking 2016 and beyond.

[The Lucky Neck Beard]

There are enough holes on this roster that I think BPA regardless of position (outside of QB) is the best way to build for not only this year but beyond.  No JAGs just to fill a need.  In 2015 CB is pretty well set but if Marcus Peters is the highest rated, difference making player on the board, I think you make that pick and don't look back. 

I totally agree here.  Even though there are holes, its still a decent starting line up.  we can draft any one at any position with any of our picks really.  And use the BPA draftees as depth, and ease them in as the older players break.  I think this Draft is exciting for the sheer mystery of it. I mean 2012 was cool but we had a fairly decent idea of what was going to happen.  I dont get that feeling at all with this draft.    

[bananabucket]

I agree with most of the points in this thread, but I wouldnt be surprised if a rookie came in and earned a starting spot at RT or S as well. Cherilus has had knee problems and we dont know where his health is at. Dwight Lowery is in no way guaranteed a starting job. He could be beaten out by Winston Guy, Dewey MacDonald or a rookie if we land an impressive one.

 

I think Lowery is better than many of us give him credit for.  He should be a respectable starting safety for us.  That being said, he might only be here for this season.

[horseshoeblue22]

We signed Lowery on a one year deal to come in and compete for the starting job. Hes a decent player, and a respectable starter if he wins the spot...just saying he will not be GIVEN anything. If he is our starter come opening day, its because he has proven to be our best option. I would project him as the starter now, but if another option is more impressive, it would not surprise me if he spends most of the season off the field.

[ProblChld32]

Draft BPA, and call it a day. There are holes, yes; but i don't want to reach for a player based off of "Need" lets build the smart way and take the best guy off the board and plug and play. Gotta remember once Training camp starts guys will also get cut left and right. Might be able to find a guy that comes in and starts that way. 

[horseshoeblue22]

Best player available is a relative term though. I remember watching a program that said that GMs and coaches weigh positional needs when they grade the prospects available, and obviously all GMs and coaches place different priorities on different kinds of skills. Think of the way you run your Madden franchise. Are you grab a 84 overall WR before you grab an 82 overall cornerback? Probably...but if you already have a 90, 85 and a 84 at WR and your best corner is a 76 overall...then the CB obviously brings more value to your team...long term and short term. If the difference is insignificant then you pick the guy who plays a position of need. Now if you are comparing a 93 overall WR to adding that 82 ovr CB, then you have to add the player with superior talent.

[NewColtsFan]

I can't decide if we are in an envious situation or an undesirable one.

 

Right now, our starting 22 (plus a few) looks like this:

 

QB: Luck

RB: Gore

TE: Allen, Fleener

WR: Johnson, Hilton, Moncrief

T: Castonzo, Cherlius

G: Herremans, Mewhort

C: Holmes

 

DE: Jones, Langford

NT: Chapman

ILB: Freeman, Jackson, Irving

OLB: Mathis, Cole, Walden, Newsome

CB: Davis, Toler, Butler

S: Adams, Lowery

 

On the plus side, we appear to be loaded for a SB run in the next season or two.  Our biggest immediate question marks are pretty clearly C and NT.  In my opinion, Holmes and Chapman are the only two starters who could be readily supplanted by our first round selection.  I'd go further to say that they are our only two starters who could be considered less than average caliber players.  So if you're one of the people who advocate drafting a day 1 starter, you better be hoping for a C/NT or I think you will be disappointed.

 

On the other hand... Right now we have quite a few newly-acquired, older stopgaps who will need replacing soon (Gore, Johnson, Herremans, Cole) and some aging guys of our own (Cherilus, Mathis, Jackson, Adams).  Taking into consideration which FAs are likely to return and which are not, is anyone comfortable about the near-future of the RB, WR3, RG, RT, OLB, CB2, or S positions?  And even though I personally feel comfortable with Irving/Freeman going forward, I'll throw ILB into the mix as well.  There are a TON of positions in which we will need replacements/upgrades in the coming 1-3 seasons.  The only spots we should feel comfortable about are QB, TE, WR1, WR2, LT, LG, DE, and CB1.

 

So what's the correct way to approach this draft?  Should we try to bolster the roster with impact players in positions of immediate need in hopes of contending now, or do we go the BPA route and try to avoid the multitude of glaring holes in the near future?

 

I wouldn't bank on Mathis being back until he's back.    Seriously.

 

Right now it's Cole and Newsome on the weak/rush side and Walden and Werner on the strong side.

 

If/when Mathis comes back it's an added bonus.   But I don't think we can count on him to be good to go at the start of the year.

 

Also,  we don't know what will happen with Cherilous.    He could be great,   or he could still be dealing with issues.   We likely won't know about that for another month or two....

[braveheartcolt]

There are enough holes on this roster that I think BPA regardless of position (outside of QB) is the best way to build for not only this year but beyond.  No JAGs just to fill a need.  In 2015 CB is pretty well set but if Marcus Peters is the highest rated, difference making player on the board, I think you make that pick and don't look back. 

Yep, pretty much how I see it to. Maybe ignore the TE spot as well. And no high picks (1,2,3) on a WR. Perhaps next year unless Moncrief and Carter both shine, and we can let AJ wind down..... 

[TKnight24]

I wouldn't bank on Mathis being back until he's back. Seriously.

Right now it's Cole and Newsome on the weak/rush side and Walden and Werner on the strong side.

If/when Mathis comes back it's an added bonus. But I don't think we can count on him to be good to go at the start of the year.

Also, we don't know what will happen with Cherilous. He could be great, or he could still be dealing with issues. We likely won't know about that for another month or two....

Hoping Werner isn't even a Colt come season start, he stinks

[TKnight24]

Best player available is a relative term though. I remember watching a program that said that GMs and coaches weigh positional needs when they grade the prospects available, and obviously all GMs and coaches place different priorities on different kinds of skills. Think of the way you run your Madden franchise. Are you grab a 84 overall WR before you grab an 82 overall cornerback? Probably...but if you already have a 90, 85 and a 84 at WR and your best corner is a 76 overall...then the CB obviously brings more value to your team...long term and short term. If the difference is insignificant then you pick the guy who plays a position of need. Now if you are comparing a 93 overall WR to adding that 82 ovr CB, then you have to add the player with superior talent.

Sign both of them in the first scenario, then since you have a loaded WR core.... use one of them as trade bait and get draft picks

[ponyboy]

Agreed with a lot that is said here.  The 2015 draft isn't just about what the depth looks like this year, but also looking ahead to what it will look like this time next year. 

• Cherilus' contract was structured such that this would be his last year unless he's really doing well.  His replacement should be a high priority and probably isn't on the roster right now (unless it's Mewhort).
• DQ, Mathis, Toler, Adams, and Lowery may be gone by 2016.
• Coles, Herremans, Gore, AJ likely gone by 2017.
• Fleenor or Allen may be lost to FA in 2016.

Colts could go about any direction with the first two or three picks, RG/RT, C, DE, NT, S, CB, RB, ILB, EDGE.

• Cam Erving
• La'el Collins, Humphries, Clemmings, Peat
• Peters, Johnson, Jalen Collins
• Landon Collins
• Gurley, Gordon,
• Gregory, Ray, Dupree
• Shelton, Brown, Armstead

Somebody on this list will likely be available at #29 and would be a value pick at that spot.  My guess would be Peters, Johnson, Erving, or a Collins at #29.

[NewEra]

Sign both of them in the first scenario, then since you have a loaded WR core.... use one of them as trade bait and get draft picks

They said the same about Hughes. Look how that turned out. It was the guys second season for Pete sake...

[horseshoeblue22]

Sign both of them in the first scenario, then since you have a loaded WR core.... use one of them as trade bait and get draft picks

Sorry for not being more clear. The scenario I was referring to would be a draft pick, not a FA. If it is ypur turn to make a selection in tge draft, say first round, would you take the 84 ovr WR or the 82 ovr CB given these circumstances? Assume the player you pass on will not be available for your selection in the second round, and no other players warrant consideration for this pick.

[DougDew]

I think of Chapman as strictly a 0 tech NT. That alignment isn't called for a lot of the times in Pagano's defense so I would not really consider Chap a starter, but more of a rotational guy when the 0 tech is called for (even though we usually start the game in that alignment I believe). Jones and Hughes tend to play the "nose" in the 4 DL alignment. I wouldn't draft a player at 29 with the idea of supplanting Chapman as the starter, since his position probably plays less than 50% of the defensive downs.

A talented more versatile DT at 29 would be better, IMO

I'd also willing to select Cameron Erving at 29, who is versatile and would probably beat out Holmes for the starting C. Of course, a C plays 100% of the offensive snaps.

[NewColtsFan]

Hoping Werner isn't even a Colt come season start, he stinks

 

No.   He doesn't stink.    He's just not as good as we all hoped.

 

He's a disappointing pass rusher,  but a decent run defender.

 

It's better to hope that he's improved and we can get more out of him.....   otherwise, I think you'll be disappointed.

[BOTT]

No.   He doesn't stink.    He's just not as good as we all hoped.

 

He's a disappointing pass rusher,  but a decent run defender.

 

It's better to hope that he's improved and we can get more out of him.....   otherwise, I think you'll be disappointed.

Yeah, he kinda stinks

[horseshoeblue22]

Werner isn't terrible, he just hasnt been the all star pass rusher we all hoped he would be. Keep in mind, the 2013 draft class was by far the worst rookie class in recent memory. Especially bad were the pass rushers in this class.

Granted, they have only been playing for two seasons, and this group has plenty of time to turn things around. Werner has been the second most productive edge rusher in his class (behind DET's Ziggy Ansah, 5th ovr pick) and has been leagues better then MIA's Dion Jordan, who was the third pick.

[aaron11]

I think of Chapman as strictly a 0 tech NT. That alignment isn't called for a lot of the times in Pagano's defense so I would not really consider Chap a starter, but more of a rotational guy when the 0 tech is called for (even though we usually start the game in that alignment I believe). Jones and Hughes tend to play the "nose" in the 4 DL alignment. I wouldn't draft a player at 29 with the idea of supplanting Chapman as the starter, since his position probably plays less than 50% of the defensive downs.

A talented more versatile DT at 29 would be better, IMO

I'd also willing to select Cameron Erving at 29, who is versatile and would probably beat out Holmes for the starting C. Of course, a C plays 100% of the offensive snaps.

the thing with nose tackles is good ones stay on the field and mediocre ones come off on passing downs.  guys like wilfork and hampton play more than 80% of defensive snaps.

 

if we can get a great NT that wont have to come off of the field then it could be worth an early pick

[bananabucket]

I'd also willing to select Cameron Erving at 29, who is versatile and would probably beat out Holmes for the starting C. Of course, a C plays 100% of the offensive snaps.

 

 

I think Erving would be a great pick at 29, but I just don't see him being available.

[crazycolt1]

Sign both of them in the first scenario, then since you have a loaded WR core.... use one of them as trade bait and get draft picks

Trade bait? For what? An unestablished player is not worth a decent draft pick. If you go with the BPA then let the player or players develop. 3rd tier WRs are plenty and can always be picked up at pretty much anytime.

[ColtRider]

IMO, BPAs do not win the day in this draft for the Colts. Targeting does. I cannot say this enough times : STOP the RUN! If the BPA is a DT/ILB/S then draft him. Three phases, guys. Defense is the largest hole we face in trying to achieve another VL Trophy or two. (and possibly more with continued correct draft positioning, FAs, practice squads, trades, walk-ons, et.al)