Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)

[NewColtsFan]

15 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Are you hoping it doesn't happen because he doesn't fit the Colts profile? Or because you don't think he'd be a good player for us?

 

I agree that he's not a Ballard type of prospect, and for that reason, I doubt we draft him. We only have one DT who's shorter than 6'4" -- Adebawore is 6'2", he was drafted in the 4th round, he's an outlier athlete, has really long arms, and I think he's probably more of a DE/DT hybrid. Drafting a 6'0" DT/3T, especially in the first round, doesn't seem like something Ballard would do.

 

But I think Murphy is a really good player, and a really good athlete, despite his lack of size. His speed and explosive numbers are great for a player his size. His tape looks good. He fits our defensive scheme. He led all interior DL prospects with a 19.6% pressure rate. He hates being blocked, and plays like he lives his life for the sole purpose of defeating offensive linemen. 

 

I am not comparing him to Aaron Donald. But before the 2014 draft, I said Donald was the kind of guy you just draft and figure it out, whether he fits your scheme/profile or not. In no way am I saying Murphy is as good as Donald was, not even as a prospect, but I think he might be good enough to apply the same logic. Put him in a gap shooting front and let him disrupt. 

 

I would not mind if we drafted him at all. It would be a big surprise, but I think he's a really good prospect.

To your first paragraph….   I think he doesn’t fit the Colts profile.   I also think he’d be a good player for us.  But I wouldn’t understand the point of signing Davis and Bryan and then draft a player who will take many snaps from them.  Also, guys like Dayo, Lewis, and Paye have position versatility.  So the Colts would appear to have plenty of options.  
 

I appreciate Ballard’s comment about not passing up a great player even if not a position of need.  So maybe it’s possible.  I’m just wondering where Murphy might be on Ballard’s Big Board. 

[stitches]

I will post a few mock drafts from people who are really highly ranked in The Huddle Reports' mock draft competitions over the last few years:

 

Brendan Donahue(tied for highest score over the last 5 years)

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2024-nfl-mock-draft-brendan-donahue/

Interesting things: 

-Vikings trade up to 5 for McCarthy

-Colts get Brock Bowers at 15. 

 

Eddie Brown(tied for highest score over the last 5 years)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/2024-nfl-mock-draft-eddie-brown-s-final-first-round-projections/ar-AA1nCo1i

Interesting things:

- JC Latham at 5 to the Chargers(Jeremiah has the same pick)

- Rome Odunze to the Giants at 6, Nabers to Atlanta at 8

- Philly trades up to 12 for Quinyon Mitchell

- Colts get Brock Bowers(seems to be a trend...)

 

 

David P. Woods(3d highest score over the last 5 years):

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/2900023

Interesting things: 

- Vikings trade up to 5 for McCarthy(seems like this is the current divide - this pick will be either Latham to the Chargers or Vikings trade up)

- Odunze to Giants at 6!!! Nabers to Atlanta at 8. Second one with those specific picks. 

- Colts get Quinyon Mitchell

 

Ben Standig (3 times Huddle report mock draft champion!):

https://www.benstandig.com/post/ben-standig-s-2024-nfl-mock-draft-final

Interesting things: 

- Vikings trade up to 5 for McCarthy

- Colts TRADE UP to 8 for Odunze!! Interesting.... 

 

Sean Green(Last year's Huddle report mock draft co-champion):

https://www.sportsgamblingpodcast.com/2024/04/23/2024-nfl-mock-draft-sean-green-final-mock-draft/

Interesting things: 

- Nabers goes 4 to Arizona, MHJ 6 to Giants

- Chargers go Taliese Fuaga at 5. 

- Colts get Quinyon Mitchell

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

26 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I'll be scratching me head forever if the Colts pass on him, and he turns out to be Aaron Donald. 

 

I know you're big on "measurables". I remember back in the day arguing with you about Braden Smith being able to play RT because his arms weren't long enough. Don't get me wrong, I know measurables certainly play a part. But I still take the player and his skillset over his measurements. 

I suppose Murphy being the next Donald is possible, but I wouldn’t think it’s likely.  
 

As for Smith playing right tackle, I believe I was simply echoing Ballard’s initial viewpoint.  That Smith’s short arms made him an unlikely RT.  And that he had to be talked into it by Morocco Brown and Ed Dodds.   I don’t think I was stating MY personal view. 
 

As for skillset vs measurements.  I think it’s been an issue for all of us because Ballard has such specific requirements for each position.  So we factor that into our judgements. 

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

To your first paragraph….   I think he doesn’t fit the Colts profile.   I also think he’d be a good player for us.  But I wouldn’t understand the point of signing Davis and Bryan and then draft a player who will take many snaps from them.  Also, guys like Dayo, Lewis, and Paye have position versatility.  So the Colts would appear to have plenty of options.  
 

I appreciate Ballard’s comment about not passing up a great player even if not a position of need.  So maybe it’s possible.  I’m just wondering where Murphy might be on Ballard’s Big Board. 

 

I don't think players like Davis (and especially Bryan, who I don't think will make the final 53) should impact our draft strategy at all. Not even a little bit. If we like Byron Murphy, figure out what to do with those other guys later. The other versatile guys you mention don't scratch the itch the way Murphy would be expected to -- he should be looked at as a disruptive 3T who plays there every down, not a matchup guy or passing downs guy. 

 

If anything, maybe it's the other way around. The Colts already had a feel for the DTs in draft class and knew they wouldn't get what they want in the draft, so they addressed the position in free agency. And after this weekend, that might help people better understand the strategy at DB and WR... 

 

The bolded really gets at the heart of it. I like Murphy, but I'm not offering him as a great player that you just have to take a chance on. But when it comes to draft strategy, I think taking the best players is the way to go. I'm directly opposed to needs-based drafting, and to passing on a really good prospect because you have backup level veterans already on the roster. 

[RollerColt]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

The bolded really gets at the heart of it. I like Murphy, but I'm not offering him as a great player that you just have to take a chance on. But when it comes to draft strategy, I think taking the best players is the way to go. I'm directly opposed to needs-based drafting, and to passing on a really good prospect because you have backup level veterans already on the roster. 

Same. And that's because over time that level of depth eventually decays. 

[DougDew]

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

That Smith’s short arms made him an unlikely RT.  And that he had to be talked into it by Morocco Brown and Ed Dodds.   I don’t think I was stating MY personal view. 

If you are relying upon history, does accuracy matter?  I think the reason Smith ended up at RT is because the coaches tried him there out of necessity and he played well, and stayed there due to the coaches wishes.  I don't think that FO guys had much to say about it, because Smith was in fact drafted to be a G, not the RT.  Ballard's own words after day 2 of that draft was that they drafted Smith a bit higher than they had him ranked, because he was the "last remaining starting caliber G on the board".

 

So it does fit that Smith was not drafted by Ballard or the FO to be a RT...in part because of the measurables and arm length.

 

Also directing this response to @Matthew Gilbert

[krunk]

Gimmeee BTJ. That's all I gotta say!

[stitches]

1 minute ago, krunk said:

Gimmeee BTJ. That's all I gotta say!

Any worries about rumored shoulder issue?

[NewColtsFan]

31 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think players like Davis (and especially Bryan, who I don't think will make the final 53) should impact our draft strategy at all. Not even a little bit. If we like Byron Murphy, figure out what to do with those other guys later. The other versatile guys you mention don't scratch the itch the way Murphy would be expected to -- he should be looked at as a disruptive 3T who plays there every down, not a matchup guy or passing downs guy. 

 

If anything, maybe it's the other way around. The Colts already had a feel for the DTs in draft class and knew they wouldn't get what they want in the draft, so they addressed the position in free agency. And after this weekend, that might help people better understand the strategy at DB and WR... 

 

The bolded really gets at the heart of it. I like Murphy, but I'm not offering him as a great player that you just have to take a chance on. But when it comes to draft strategy, I think taking the best players is the way to go. I'm directly opposed to needs-based drafting, and to passing on a really good prospect because you have backup level veterans already on the roster. 

Well….  If you see Murphy as a 3T and are not concerned about all the other players who can play there, you’re fine then with Murphy only playing roughly 25 percent of the snaps for perhaps 2-3 years?   You’re ok with that for a first round pick?   Because I thought Ballard went out of his way to say Buckner was a physical freak of nature who might be able to play much longer than one might normally expect. 
 

Curious to your thoughts here. 

[Superman]

21 minutes ago, stitches said:

Any worries about rumored shoulder issue?

 

I'm not necessarily worried about it. The medical will be important for him and for Nabers, who I believe has the same situation. They might wind up having an operation after the draft.

[OLD FAN MAN]

please dont draft injured players

[stitches]

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm not necessarily worried about it. The medical will be important for him and for Nabers, who I believe has the same situation. They might wind up having an operation after the draft.

From what I heard, they are talking about having surgery after his rookie year. I guess it's not too serious if he can play a whole season through it with minimal risk? 

[Dobbinblitz]

48 minutes ago, krunk said:

Gimmeee BTJ. That's all I gotta say!

He would be a very good Pick for the Colts. He has the speed to beat defenders in the first 15 yds off the line of scrimmage, fights for the ball  and makes contested catches. Teams do not appear to be overly concerned with rumored shoulder issues. He is wiry and considered an AJ Green-lite.

He is explosive. can work through contact, high point the ball,  and can stretch the field - Traits the Colts need to acquire in this draft.

Some knock his production because he played opposite what some consider to be the best WR in the draft. But, he has all the tools needed to excel in the NFL. The type of player the Colts really need at this point. BTJ. Pittman, and AR would be a potent combo.

[Superman]

21 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Well….  If you see Murphy as a 3T and are not concerned about all the other players who can play there, you’re fine then with Murphy only playing roughly 25 percent of the snaps for perhaps 2-3 years?   You’re ok with that for a first round pick?   Because I thought Ballard went out of his way to say Buckner was a physical freak of nature who might be able to play much longer than one might normally expect. 
 

Curious to your thoughts here. 

 

I don't know why he would only play 25% of the snaps for 2-3 years. Taven Bryan and Eric Johnson combined for about 600 snaps last year, why couldn't Murphy take most of those right away? I guess maybe Davis is in line to take those. Also, Buckner played about 350 snaps at DE last year, so he's not strictly used at 3T. I'd be fine with letting that work itself out in 2024.

 

It's an unpopular stance, but I'm not super concerned with a first round pick being an immediate contributor. If he is, that's great, but even if we see a position group as strong and deep, and a rookie has to fight for playing time, I'm okay with that. 

[Jason_]

35 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Well….  If you see Murphy as a 3T and are not concerned about all the other players who can play there, you’re fine then with Murphy only playing roughly 25 percent of the snaps for perhaps 2-3 years?   You’re ok with that for a first round pick?   Because I thought Ballard went out of his way to say Buckner was a physical freak of nature who might be able to play much longer than one might normally expect. 
 

Curious to your thoughts here. 

 

I don't think the number of players who can play 3T is as important as how many of them can play it better than Murphy could?  Mind you, I haven't watched much of Murphy so I'm basing this on what I've heard and read, but I'm assuming if the Colts picked him at 15 then they agree with at least most of the scouting reports.

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, stitches said:

From what I heard, they are talking about having surgery after his rookie year. I guess it's not too serious if he can play a whole season through it with minimal risk? 

 

I would need to get more info. If that's the indication from medicals, then I think I'd be okay with it. I don't know anything, though. It's probably a team by team thing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts are more conservative than other teams when it comes to shoulder injuries...

 

Edit: https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/022/takeaways-nfl-draft-latest-buzz-rumors-medicals?__s=nxvbiahefc4aoa0o76dc

 

Quote

Both of LSU’s star receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, have issues with their left shoulders. The risk here is considered relatively minimal—in both cases, there’s a chance the player may have to have the shoulder surgically repaired after the 2024 season. Bryan Bresee, the Saints’ first-round pick last year, had a similar situation with his shoulder coming into the draft last year.

 

So you're right, I probably misread this when I saw it the other day.

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I would need to get more info. If that's the indication from medicals, then I think I'd be okay with it. I don't know anything, though. It's probably a team by team thing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts are more conservative than other teams when it comes to shoulder injuries...

I had not brought it up here until today but I saw a few mocks, including Jeremiah, who IMO is one of the most plugged in people in draft land, having him drop to the late 20s... so... I thought this might be one of the reasons why he might drop. 

[krunk]

49 minutes ago, stitches said:

Any worries about rumored shoulder issue?

No bc that can heal. He isn't the only one coming in with something. Give it the time it needs. I'm only concerned if it's potentially season ending 

[Superman]

7 minutes ago, stitches said:

I had not brought it up here until today but I saw a few mocks, including Jeremiah, who IMO is one of the most plugged in people in draft land, having him drop to the late 20s... so... I thought this might be one of the reasons why he might drop. 

 

He still has Nabers at 6 though...

[krunk]

24 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

He would be a very good Pick for the Colts. He has the speed to beat defenders in the first 15 yds off the line of scrimmage, fights for the ball  and makes contested catches. Teams do not appear to be overly concerned with rumored shoulder issues. He is wiry and considered an AJ Green-lite.

He is explosive. can work through contact, high point the ball,  and can stretch the field - Traits the Colts need to acquire in this draft.

Some knock his production because he played opposite what some consider to be the best WR in the draft. But, he has all the tools needed to excel in the NFL. The type of player the Colts really need at this point. BTJ. Pittman, and AR would be a potent combo.

If anybody can make teams pay when Pittman is doubled it's this guy. For him to be so tall I love his wiggle and ability to run after catch. And he does the short game too. Verticals aren't all he does. I think he runs good routes also. Has good hands as well. Will have some occasional drops that are more focus related than hand problems. Personally I don't think we are missing much if we get him instead of one of the other top 3. He can be molded into a beast with a few tweaks. I'm scared he might go before our pick.

[craigerb]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Save it for never.

LOL. I love that line--did you originate it ?

[Dobbinblitz]

 

[Dingus McGirt]

1 hour ago, krunk said:

Gimmeee BTJ. That's all I gotta say!

You’re a poet, and now we know it!

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

He still has Nabers at 6 though...

One is much better and you might be willing to overlook it for one of them while you might have lower risk tolerance for the other one? My guess... 

[MikeCurtis]

3 hours ago, TrueBlue4ever said:

Byron Murphy becoming popular pick for us. Is he a generational talent?? AKA, Donald. Not quite sure how I would feel about this pick honestly. 

The guy is a stud

[Superman]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

One is much better and you might be willing to overlook it for one of them while you might have lower risk tolerance for the other one? My guess... 

 

No doubt. It could also mean that BTJ's issue is more concerning than Nabers. Or not, know way of knowing without having the medicals and someone to decipher and contextualize them for me. 

 

With DJ's mock, I think what's more likely is that his choices are flavored by what he's hearing + a desire to pair certain players with certain teams. Nothing he has stands out as weird or unreasonable (he has Latu as the 4th edge, by the way), but I think Bowers to the Colts is just what people think is fun, and BTJ to the Bills just makes sense. So he puts Rome at #10, and then no more WRs until BTJ at #28, which seems unlikely to me, and kind of forced. Then again, a month ago having BTJ at #28 seemed normal, so who knows.

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

No doubt. It could also mean that BTJ's issue is more concerning than Nabers. Or not, know way of knowing without having the medicals and someone to decipher and contextualize them for me. 

 

With DJ's mock, I think what's more likely is that his choices are flavored by what he's hearing + a desire to pair certain players with certain teams. Nothing he has stands out as weird or unreasonable (he has Latu as the 4th edge, by the way), but I think Bowers to the Colts is just what people think is fun, and BTJ to the Bills just makes sense. So he puts Rome at #10, and then no more WRs until BTJ at #28, which seems unlikely to me, and kind of forced. Then again, a month ago having BTJ at #28 seemed normal, so who knows.

If Rome is there at 9 and the Bears are willing to trade back would you give them our 3d rounder this year for it? 

[Dobbinblitz]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

One is much better and you might be willing to overlook it for one of them while you might have lower risk tolerance for the other one? My guess... 

I guess we will find out, but I don't think BTJ will see any seismic drops in draft boards. Seems there  is always so much noise and smoke around players teams covet on the cusp of the draft. Like C.J. Strouds aptitude test scores last year. 

[Dobbinblitz]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

If Rome is there at 9 and the Bears are willing to trade back would you give them our 3d rounder this year for it? 

That is an easy one - YES.

[NewColtsFan]

31 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know why he would only play 25% of the snaps for 2-3 years. Taven Bryan and Eric Johnson combined for about 600 snaps last year, why couldn't Murphy take most of those right away? I guess maybe Davis is in line to take those. Also, Buckner played about 350 snaps at DE last year, so he's not strictly used at 3T. I'd be fine with letting that work itself out in 2024.

 

It's an unpopular stance, but I'm not super concerned with a first round pick being an immediate contributor. If he is, that's great, but even if we see a position group as strong and deep, and a rookie has to fight for playing time, I'm okay with that. 

A follow up….   Can you remember the last time — if ever — Ballard went out and signed free agents in March, only to turn around and cut those same free agents in September?   
 

I appreciate you’re not a fan of either Davis or Bryan, but they weren’t signed to vet minimum contracts.   They were signed to decent contracts with signing bonuses.  And now they’re going to get cut in September?   I’m having a hard time seeing that.  
 

It would appear the Colts have a plan,  but now you think they might blow up their own plan.   You're thoughts?

[Dobbinblitz]

 

[Dobbinblitz]

17 minutes ago, stitches said:

If Rome is there at 9 and the Bears are willing to trade back would you give them our 3d rounder this year for it? 

On a different note -What is your take on Payton Wilson if he is sitting there at #46

[RollerColt]

5 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

 

Exactly as I expected. 

[stitches]

21 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

A follow up….   Can you remember the last time — if ever — Ballard went out and signed free agents in March, only to turn around and cut those same free agents in September?   
 

I appreciate you’re not a fan of either Davis or Bryan, but they weren’t signed to vet minimum contracts.   They were signed to decent contracts with signing bonuses.  And now they’re going to get cut in September?   I’m having a hard time seeing that.  
 

It would appear the Colts have a plan,  but now you think they might blow up their own plan.   You're thoughts?

I think we just don't remember the ones that get released because they don't last long. Examples(not sure they fit the contract part)...

 

2021

Colts signed Sean Davis(S) on April 1 and they released him on August 31. 

Same year - Colts re-signed Joey Hunt on March 29 and he was released him on August 31.

 

 

2022

Colts signed Armani Watts(S) on April 5 and released him on August 30. 

Same year - Colts sign Brandon King(LB) on April 12, he was released on August 30. 

 

2023 

Colts re-signed Khalid Kareem on March 27. He was released on August 29. 

 

So yeah... it happens more often than you think. We just don't remember them. 

[tweezy32]

its hilarious seeing multiple reportsm now that colts have significant interest in moving up and snagging MHJ

[RollerColt]

9 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

On a different note -What is your take on Payton Wilson if he is sitting there at #46

Oh man, it would be hard to say no to picking him. 

[stitches]

10 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

On a different note -What is your take on Payton Wilson if he is sitting there at #46

Short arms... extensive injury history. I don't think he fits what Ballard likes... 

[tweezy32]

 

[w87r]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

Herbert's dead cap hit would roll off before Harbaugh lost his grace period with the fans.  It would simply be considered part of the rebuilding years from a team that had the 5th overall draft pick, IMO.   The dead cap hit, from a fanbase perspective, is a nonissue, IMO.

Yeah, I actually wrote about that over in the NFL gen thread.

 

Got to thinking about it, and if the Broncos were willing to do it with Wilson($85m?) for no compensation.

 

Why wouldn't Harbaugh consider it with Herbert, if he was getting #11,#23 and probably high 2025 pick.and wants McCarthy himself.

[stitches]

1 minute ago, tweezy32 said: