Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)

[BlackTiger]

1 hour ago, tfunky14 said:

This is really simple for the Colts.  If Bowers or one of the top 3 WR is still on the board, you pick one of them.  

 

If not then best DB or Edge.  

They wont go by that.  All of the above will be ranked on list together and it wont necessarily be by position 

[Moosejawcolt]

9 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I think that's why Ballard tried to sign Hunter.  He knows he could use an upgrade there.

Free agency tells you a lot where a team is going in the draft. They really see the need for a true rush end and even corner

[Moosejawcolt]

3 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

They wont go by that.  All of the above will be ranked on list together and it wont necessarily be by position 

So you would take Bowers over the top corner and/or edge or do you mean if they were equal value? Bowers looks good on tape but his size scares me a little for a team that is intent on running the ball. I think we have a lot of flash TE's on this roster already that need some time to develop with Richardson. You look at the TE room and I do some talent there but need time. I look at the corner and edge room and I  go meh!!

[shasta519]

21 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I agree with the concept, but until Richardson is a complete proven entity, I would not give up next year's 1st

under any conditions

 

Dallas Turner MIGHT be that guy to trade up for........  But he might just fall to us at 15

 

He would be a PR specialist until he added some NFL muscle

 

I don't see any scenario where they are giving up next year's R1 pick. It would be an opportunistic trade up that they can likely spread over this draft and next draft.

 

The MOST we have seen Ballard additionally give up in trade-ups is a mid-late R5 pick. Tyquan, JT, Cross. 

 

For him to give up even a Day 2 pick would be out of character. So it would have to be quite the opportunity.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, shasta519 said:

 

I don't see any scenario where they are giving up next year's R1 pick. It would be an opportunistic trade up that they can likely spread over this draft and next draft.

 

The MOST we have seen Ballard additionally give up in trade-ups is a mid-late R5 pick. Tyquan, JT, Cross. 

 

For him to give up even a Day 2 pick would be out of character. So it would have to be quite the opportunity.

I literally think the only player in this class Ballard would give up a future 1st for would be Marvin Harrison Jr, and that's if Irsay told him to do so. 

[shasta519]

7 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

So you would take Bowers over the top corner and/or edge or do you mean if they were equal value? Bowers looks good on tape but his size scares me a little for a team that is intent on running the ball. I think we have a lot of flash TE's on this roster already that need some time to develop with Richardson. You look at the TE room and I do some talent there but need time. I look at the corner and edge room and I  go meh!!

 

There are levels to the TE debate. One one hand, the market value of the position hurts the value of an early R1 TE. With the rookie wage scale, they come into the NFL already making good money for the position, so there's no real surplus value. On the other hand, the TEs that you would want to build around don't make it to FA, so the market value doesn't matter as much. So getting one when you can is important.

 

But then you also see that there are great TEs taken past R1 as well. 

 

Plus, then you have to consider the scheme. Committing a big contract to a RB seems to suggest that this team will be running the ball quite often. How often would they take advantage of Bowers? We saw this unfold in ATL. They spent early R1 draft capital on a TE and a WR...and then ran the ball all the time. So those picks have largely not been maximized.

 

It seems like the Bowers debate is fully dependent on him falling to #15. Then we can see how he ranks over other prospects available. 

[Moosejawcolt]

3 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

There are levels to the TE debate. One one hand, the market value of the position hurts the value of an early R1 TE. With the rookie wage scale, they come into the NFL already making good money for the position, so there's no real surplus value. On the other hand, the TEs that you would want to build around don't make it to FA, so the market value doesn't matter as much. So getting one when you can is important.

 

But then you also see that there are great TEs taken past R1 as well. 

 

Plus, then you have to consider the scheme. Committing a big contract to a RB seems to suggest that this team will be running the ball quite often. How often would they take advantage of Bowers? We saw this unfold in ATL. They spent early R1 draft capital on a TE and a WR...and then ran the ball all the time. So those picks have largely not been maximized.

 

It seems like the Bowers debate is fully dependent on him falling to #15. Then we can see how he ranks over other prospects available. 

if Bowers is there at #15 and he is by far the best player there, then you take him  I don't a  see  corner of value at #15 if Mitchel is gone. If the Colts were to take a guy like Mitchell  with their 1st pick whether it be bye  trade up and/or at #15, it would suggest to me there is a shift in defensive philosophy as he is a man corner. That would be exciting for me.  To me if the  Colts are to go defense with their 1st pick, I really hope they are ready to get that guy if it means trading up. I would believe that the Colts may have one corner and maybe 3 DE's that are worthy of a top 15 pick. The rest of the corners are mostly zone corners and you can get those later in the draft. Turner, Verse and Latu. Latu is intriguing as he could slide because of medical but some say he is worthy of a top 6 pick. He reminds me of Sweat when the Colts bypassed him because of the medical and picked Sin in the 2nd.

[Moosejawcolt]

40 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I think that's why Ballard tried to sign Hunter.  He knows he could use an upgrade there.

Latu at 15 would be interesting if they decided to stand and not trade up. He looks awesome on tape and his medical could cause him to slide and you could be getting the best pass rusher at #15 but assume some risk. Would it be better to say move up and get a pass rush and give up picks or stay at #15 and get a guy  like Latu, if he falls that far, and assume some risk? 

[CoachLite]

2 hours ago, cjwhiskers said:

The large majority of defenses in the NFL can be considered “mediocre”. The Colts defense did plenty to keep the games winnable and that’s all you can ask of a defense in today’s NFL. 

Let me ask you, was it the Browns top defense that won the Super Bowl? Was it the Ravens? Was it the 49ers? 
 

You don’t need an elite defense. You need an elite offense that scores consistently and in clutch moments. 
 

Colts resigning all of their own defensive players back is really all you need to know about how this organization views their own defense.

Defenses are judged relative to their offenses and achievement of their defensive strategy. Notice, nothing was said about winning and losing, directly. I've seen defenses win and lose football games, just as I have seem good defenses play on the losing side. The Colts signing their own players doesn't tell me much. The Colts bringing Bradley back tells me more, and I'm not encouraged by what that is telling me.

 

I think the game of football is far more complex and complicated than most people believe. The tendency for many is to think in terms of plug-and-play solutions based on subjective personal opinion. That's not a winning ploy in my book. I guess we'll see what happens as it plays out on the field?

[Moosejawcolt]

26 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

I literally think the only player in this class Ballard would give up a future 1st for would be Marvin Harrison Jr, and that's if Irsay told him to do so. 

You know how ridiculously expensive that would be to say move to #4  for a wr? You would be looking at this years #15 and next years  1st rounder and we still are not done and all for a wr. MHJ coming to this teams is not going to happen.  

[Moosejawcolt]

6 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

Defenses are judged relative to their offenses and achievement of their defensive strategy. Notice, nothing was said about winning and losing, directly. I've seen defenses win and lose football games, just as I have seem good defenses play on the losing side. The Colts signing their own players doesn't tell me much. The Colts bringing Bradley back tells me more, and I'm not encouraged by what that is telling me.

 

I think the game of football is far more complex and complicated than most people believe. The tendency for many is to think in terms of plug-and-play solutions based on subjective personal opinion. That's not a winning ploy in my book. I guess we'll see what happens as it plays out on the field?

I think of pursuit of Hunter in the off season told us all we need to know about the RDE position and Paye. The starting RDE is not on this team and that is a big hole to fill. Qb, LT and RDE are probably the hardest and most important positions to fill on the team. U appear to have your qb, LT and now you need the next piece.

[Yoshinator]

2 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

You know how ridiculously expensive that would be to say move to #4  for a wr? You would be looking at this years #15 and next years  1st rounder and we still are not done and all for a wr. MHJ coming to this teams is not going to happen.  

I know. I'm just making a point that Ballard would never do something like giving up a future 1st for a non QB, and if he did, it'd take interference from Irsay for a guy that's probably seen as Colts royalty from Irsay. Just an extreme example.

[krunk]

56 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

So you would take Bowers over the top corner and/or edge or do you mean if they were equal value? Bowers looks good on tape but his size scares me a little for a team that is intent on running the ball. I think we have a lot of flash TE's on this roster already that need some time to develop with Richardson. You look at the TE room and I do some talent there but need time. I look at the corner and edge room and I  go meh!!

Why are you worried about his size? He's not an in line tight end anyway. He plays the move tight end. I would take him over an edge or a corner talent wise. None of these edge or corners has been mentioned to be generational like Bowers. You take him BPA.

[Moosejawcolt]

13 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

I know. I'm just making a point that Ballard would never do something like giving up a future 1st for a non QB, and if he did, it'd take interference from Irsay for a guy that's probably seen as Colts royalty from Irsay. Just an extreme example.

I do think that there is pressure on Ballard to add a play maker on defense. He really needs to get that guy on defense. Do i see him giving up a 1st rounder? I probably think that is really rich for  and it would take a lot to move up into the top 8. I do see  a trade to move up a couple of spots if that guy is sliding. I think Mitchell and Latu intrigue me the most should they slide. I think Mitchell may go top 10 and if not shortly after. He is probably the only true man corner at the top of the draft  and Latu could slide because of medical.

[Moosejawcolt]

1 minute ago, krunk said:

Why are you worried about his size? He's not an in line tight end anyway. He plays the move tight end.

Because all of our TE's are built the same. They are pass catchers and  very limited run and pass blocking skills. Having all pass catchers at that position would limit what this team could do schematically

[krunk]

2 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Because all of our TE's are built the same. They are pass catchers and  very limited run and pass blocking skills. Having all pass catchers at that position would limit what this team could do schematically

That's not true. Woods and Ogletree are big men. And Mo is another big man who is the blocking tight end. He will stay here or he is gone and we will add another blocking tight end to replace him. We didn't have problems running the football last season.

[BlackTiger]

1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

1 hour ago, BlackTiger said:

 

So you would take Bowers over the top corner and/or edge or do you mean if they were equal value?

Yeah probably.  Im not that crazy about any edge

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I do think that there is pressure on Ballard to add a play maker on defense. He really needs to get that guy on defense. Do i see him giving up a 1st rounder? I probably think that is really rich for  and it would take a lot to move up into the top 8. I do see  a trade to move up a couple of spots if that guy is sliding. I think Mitchell and Latu intrigue me the most should they slide. I think Mitchell may go top 10 and if not shortly after. He is probably the only true man corner at the top of the draft  and Latu could slide because of medical.

I have Turner, Latu, and Verse in the same top tier. IMO, Turner is probably the best athlete and highest potential of the three, but worst player. Latu is the best player of the three, but has injury concerns, Verse is in the middle, but a one-dimensional pass rusher. I don't personally feel there is much of a difference between the three overall where a GM can definitely tell who will hit and who won't. I'd probably go with Latu personally as I agree he might fall to 15, and the injury concerns seem to be behind him now. 

 

Mitchell IMO will possibly go to the Raiders. They are by far the biggest threat IMO. Broncos and Vikings are candidates to take a QB, and I don't see the Saints going CB. I think there's a good chance Terrion Arnold falls to 15, and that will be tempting to Ballard to grab him. 

 

Overall, I say we grab Mitchell, Arnold, or an EDGE. People want a WR in the first, but they will be disappointed IMO. We will take one on day 2 like Ballard is known for IMO.

[adubb84]

Thoughts? Schrager “tends” to be the most accurate mock drafter as he has sourced information based on conversations he has. He has the Colts moving to the 9 spot to grab Nabers. I would be extremely elated. I was also like to point out that the 9 spot is best position to also possibly grab Turner and or Bowers. Don’t think it would take much. Lots of smoke going on..Feels like Ballads may finally move up this year. 9 days left! 

[krunk]

Yall need to quit making it seem like elite players can only be found in Rd 1. And high in round 1 for that matter.

[Moosejawcolt]

2 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

I have Turner, Latu, and Verse in the same top tier. IMO, Turner is probably the best athlete and highest potential of the three, but worst player. Latu is the best player of the three, but has injury concerns, Verse is in the middle, but a one-dimensional pass rusher. I don't personally feel there is much of a difference between the three overall where a GM can definitely tell who will hit and who won't. I'd probably go with Latu personally as I agree he might fall to 15, and the injury concerns seem to be behind him now. 

 

Mitchell IMO will possibly go to the Raiders. They are by far the biggest threat IMO. Broncos and Vikings are candidates to take a QB, and I don't see the Saints going CB. I think there's a good chance Terrion Arnold falls to 15, and that will be tempting to Ballard to grab him. 

 

Overall, I say we grab Mitchell, Arnold, or an EDGE. People want a WR in the first, but they will be disappointed IMO. We will take one on day 2 like Ballard is known for IMO.

I dont like Arnold's top end and i think he is just another zone corner who we can get  in the 2nd.  However, I could be wrong. Getting a guy like Mitchell would signal a change in philosophy. To the the Colts need to take the best D player at 15 and not worry about scheme fit so much as they could be doing a whole sale change if they fire Bradley. They take a guy like Mitchell and need to tell Bradley that they use his skill set.

[cjwhiskers]

2 minutes ago, adubb84 said:

Thoughts? Schrager “tends” to be the most accurate mock drafter as he has sourced information based on conversations he has. He has the Colts moving to the 9 spot to grab Nabers. I would be extremely elated. I was also like to point out that the 9 spot is best position to also possibly grab Turner and or Bowers. Don’t think it would take much. Lots of smoke going on..Feels like Ballads may finally move up this year. 9 days left! 

 

If Nabers is there @ 9 you absolutely pull that trigger.

[ADnum1]

45 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

if Bowers is there at #15 and he is by far the best player there, then you take him  I don't a  see  corner of value at #15 if Mitchel is gone. If the Colts were to take a guy like Mitchell  with their 1st pick whether it be bye  trade up and/or at #15, it would suggest to me there is a shift in defensive philosophy as he is a man corner. That would be exciting for me.  To me if the  Colts are to go defense with their 1st pick, I really hope they are ready to get that guy if it means trading up. I would believe that the Colts may have one corner and maybe 3 DE's that are worthy of a top 15 pick. The rest of the corners are mostly zone corners and you can get those later in the draft. Turner, Verse and Latu. Latu is intriguing as he could slide because of medical but some say he is worthy of a top 6 pick. He reminds me of Sweat when the Colts bypassed him because of the medical and picked Sin in the 2nd.

Latu may be available at 15 but he's not as good as Turner.

 

Turner will be taken by the Falcons at 8.

[adubb84]

Just now, PRnum1 said:

Latu may be available at 15 but he's not as good as Turner.

 

Turner will be taken by the Falcons at 8.

See my post above. Do you think he could last until 9? I know morris would like to go defense as that’s his specialty and feels a need…

[Moosejawcolt]

Just now, PRnum1 said:

Latu may be available at 15 but he's not as good as Turner.

 

Turner will be taken by the Falcons at 8.

Turner is good but he is a little light. He is explosive but raw. Latu is just a really good football player with good measurables. I think it is time for Ballard to pick the best football player available and not the one with the highest RAS. I am warming to Latu as he could be there at 15 . The other guys will costs us to move up most likely. I just want the Colts to come out of this draft getting the guy they wanted and that takes a trade then so be it. 

[Moosejawcolt]

11 minutes ago, krunk said:

That's not true. Woods and Ogletree are big men. And Mo is another big man who is the blocking tight end. He will stay here or he is gone and we will add another blocking tight end to replace him. We didn't have problems running the football last season.

Being big does not make you a good blocker. They were liabilities in the run game and it limited our play calling with those guys in the game. It basically telegraphed to the defense what we could and couldn't do. I am not sure Mo makes the team this year and he is very limited in what he can do in the pass game.

[ADnum1]

33 minutes ago, adubb84 said:

See my post above. Do you think he could last until 9? I know morris would like to go defense as that’s his specialty and feels a need…

Turner until 9 ? no.

 

Falcons were thinking of trading up from 8 when they were looking for a QB.

 

They were going from 8 to 3 to land Jayden Daniels.

 

But then they got Kirk Cousins so looks like they are staying at 8 and will grab the best edge possible - Turner.

 

At least thats what all the local talk radio is saying.

 

Any scenario that involves Turner really involves the Falcons, and it was not clear from your post above what the Falcons would be doing at 8.

 

BTW, I like the idea of Nabors at 9...

[adubb84]

5 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

Turner until 9 ? no.

 

Falcons were thinking of trading up from 8 when they were looking for a QB.

 

They were going from 8 to 3 to land Jayden Daniels.

 

But then they got Kirk Cousins so looks like they are staying at 8 and will grab the best edge possible - Turner.

 

At least thats what all the local talk radio is saying.

 

Any scenario that involves Turner really involves the Falcons, and it was not clear from your post above what the Falcons would be doing at 8.

 

BTW, I like the idea of Nabors at 9...

lol. It has them taking Turner at 8. 

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Latu at 15 would be interesting if they decided to stand and not trade up. He looks awesome on tape and his medical could cause him to slide and you could be getting the best pass rusher at #15 but assume some risk. Would it be better to say move up and get a pass rush and give up picks or stay at #15 and get a guy  like Latu, if he falls that far, and assume some risk? 

I’m not willing to assume the risk on Latu.  I would rather move up for Turner or Nabors.  Increase your chances of getting a difference maker.

[Superman]

@cjwhiskers

 

Coincidentally, just came across this piece on The Athletic talking about trading back as the best strategy. Hits on some of the points we were discussing.

 

https://theathletic.com/5416007/2024/04/16/nfl-drafting-methods-insight-massey-thaler/?source=user_shared_articleNFLteamsknowthebestwaytodraft,sowhyaren’ttheydoingit?

[ADnum1]

For the trade back fans....

 

Randy Mueller of the Athletic says - maybe only ~150 draftable players this year

 

”After several classes overflowing with talented prospects (mainly due to the extra year of eligibility granted because of the pandemic), with as many as 350 names filling NFL teams’ draft boards, teams could struggle to get 150 names on their boards this year. This is dangerous for two reasons: The top players will disappear quickly, and teams will have to guard against the risk of overdrafting players in the later rounds. It might be a good opportunity for some teams to trade picks, maybe to move up into the first four rounds, or for a veteran player who brings more certainty. For that reason, there will be a lot of trade talk over the next couple of weeks.”

 

https://theathletic.com/5412463/2024/04/15/nfl-draft-randy-mueller-top-10/

[tfunky14]

2 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

So you would take Bowers over the top corner and/or edge or do you mean if they were equal value? Bowers looks good on tape but his size scares me a little for a team that is intent on running the ball. I think we have a lot of flash TE's on this roster already that need some time to develop with Richardson. You look at the TE room and I do some talent there but need time. I look at the corner and edge room and I  go meh!!

Colts haven't had a decent consistent TE since Dallas Clark.   It's time to get one. 

[cjwhiskers]

21 minutes ago, Superman said:

@cjwhiskers

 

Coincidentally, just came across this piece on The Athletic talking about trading back as the best strategy. Hits on some of the points we were discussing.

 

https://theathletic.com/5416007/2024/04/16/nfl-drafting-methods-insight-massey-thaler/?source=user_shared_articleNFLteamsknowthebestwaytodraft,sowhyaren’ttheydoingit?

 

It's behind a pay wall =/. "Look" I'm not saying I don't want a "complete" team, I just strongly feel this team needs another offensive weapon and I'd prefer we spend that extra draft capital to make that happen. Whether that's Nabers, or MHJ I'm indifferent but I do think MHJ will have a lot of success for a long time in this league.

 

I've always loved Ballard's strategy of acquiring picks and players. I've never criticized him for that and have celebrated it. This is the year to move up and get a play maker. We will not be picking this high next year regardless if it's Flacco or AR at QB. 

 

If there is a guy they really like, let's take the chance. They need to do whatever they possibly can to help AR be successful.

 

In reality what will most likely happen is they stay put or trade back. They wait and see how AR does this year with the current roster and re-evaluate their go/no-go strategy for next season. I'm not completely opposed to this but I think they are good enough this year to be a playoff team as is. Add a weapon and you can create some magic.

[GoColts8818]

9 minutes ago, tfunky14 said:

Colts haven't had a decent consistent TE since Dallas Clark.   It's time to get one. 

Jack Doyle was pretty good across the board.

[Dobbinblitz]

Interesting that the latest PFF mock has moved CB Mitchell to the 22nd pick, and DE Turner to the 23rd pick in the draft. They predict Verse is the first DE off the board to the Falcons at #8, and Arnold as the first CB off the board to the raiders at #13. PFF, like may other mocks PFF has Bowers to the Jets at #10 and Dejean to the Colts as the 2nd CB off the board. They have 4 QB's taken before the Colts pick. WR's - Harrison #4, Nabors #6, Odunze #11

 

Seems to be much more noise this year about the number of teams possibly moving their position in round one than in years past; with a rarity, the Colts among them. Sure, it is all just speculation. but also a little more interesting this year. 

[ShuteAt168]

19 minutes ago, Superman said:

@cjwhiskers

 

Coincidentally, just came across this piece on The Athletic talking about trading back as the best strategy. Hits on some of the points we were discussing.

 

https://theathletic.com/5416007/2024/04/16/nfl-drafting-methods-insight-massey-thaler/?source=user_shared_articleNFLteamsknowthebestwaytodraft,sowhyaren’ttheydoingit?

Fascinating article. The analysis says trading back is the way to go. It quotes Polian as saying he hated trading back. An interesting part is when an NFL executive said it’s usually not a “all for one” approach because the OC wants his guy, the DC wants his guy etc. You’d be surprised how the sausage gets made. 

[Solid84]

Colts doing homework.

[richard pallo]

31 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

For the trade back fans....

 

Randy Mueller of the Athletic says - maybe only ~150 draftable players this year

 

”After several classes overflowing with talented prospects (mainly due to the extra year of eligibility granted because of the pandemic), with as many as 350 names filling NFL teams’ draft boards, teams could struggle to get 150 names on their boards this year. This is dangerous for two reasons: The top players will disappear quickly, and teams will have to guard against the risk of overdrafting players in the later rounds. It might be a good opportunity for some teams to trade picks, maybe to move up into the first four rounds, or for a veteran player who brings more certainty. For that reason, there will be a lot of trade talk over the next couple of weeks.”

 

https://theathletic.com/5412463/2024/04/15/nfl-draft-randy-mueller-top-10/

This is the year to trade up.  Move up higher in the first four rounds seems like a good strategy.  

[BProland85]

32 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Jack Doyle was pretty good across the board.

If we’re looking to add a Jack Doyle type TE I would look at Cade Stover in the 4th round. 

[Moosejawcolt]

43 minutes ago, tfunky14 said:

Colts haven't had a decent consistent TE since Dallas Clark.   It's time to get one. 

They haven't had an edge rusher since...........