Colts offseason discussion / Ballard Grievances (merge)

[GoColts8818]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

If I may….    I’ll share some information that I’ve had for about 4 months.   It may or may not surprise you.  This is what I tried to send you the other night but somehow screwed up.   
 

These are the big signing bonuses the Colts have given out over the years when the players 2nd contract came around:  this is from Spotrac. 

 

Nelson:   $31m

Leonard:  $20m

Smith:      $15m

Taylor:      $10.24m

Stewart:    $5m 

 

 

BUT…..    I also found this….

 

*** When Ballard signed Buckner to 4/84 his SB was 0.

*** When Ballard signed Kelly to 4/50 his signing bonus was 0.

*** When Ballard signed Moore to 4/33 his signing bonus was 0. 
*** When Ballard signed MAC to 3/19 his SB was 0. 

 

To be clear, no agent lets their client sign a deal like this out of the goodness of their heart to help the team.  I think it stands to reason they get something in return.  And I think it’s a higher amount of guaranteed money.  That’s money the player would get even if the team cut the player before the contract was done.   Guaranteeing a higher percentage of money doesn’t cost the Colts anything if the team is confident the player will be in the roster for the life of the contract. 
 

I view this as a sign of a small market team.   The Colts wanted to do this.  It’s to their advantage.  I’m not blaming the Colts for doing this, I think it’s smart business.  But I think it’s a sign that from time to time, Irsay needs a little help so he doesn’t have to write a large check.  
 

This is my view.   I welcome input from all. 

 

@w87r   @Superman  @GoColts8818

 

Irsay or no other pro-sports owner is strapped for cash.  Look at the lifestyles they live.  These guys are swimming in money Scrooge McDuck style.  They like to get you to think that they are so that they have to pay for less things like the a new stadium and give them friendly tax breaks but they aren’t.  These guys are super rich even the small market teams like the Colts.  If you want to think they are strapped for cash go a head but we are going to agree to disagree.  

[GoColts8818]

47 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

You do know it’s just a joke right… I’m not on twitter, I don’t follow the guy or any guys. I see stuff that is posted on here and engage, but always take reports with a grain of salt. You never have a guy on the roster until the contract is signed and the trade is official. 
 

There is a lot Ballard isn’t going to say publicly. His ability to manipulate q and a’s to do exactly that is a strength. “Look- I like Destin… he just needs more time in the reporting field.” - Chris Ballard probably 

because Grigson couldn’t draft after the layup he had with Andrew Luck, and hitting on T.Y Hilton… 

Grigson didn’t hit on another high draft pick until Ryan Kelly after Hilton.  Just goes to speak about how good Andrew Luck was that those teams were as good as they were until Luck literally feel apart from carrying the team on his shoulders.  

[GoColts8818]

19 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

I agree. I cannot recall who else he drafted in 2015 but I could not understand why he drafted the WR out of Miami at #29 that year.

I got mad the night they took Dorsett and I still get mad when I think about it.  Look at all the good players he passed on for him.  I wanted Xavier Rhodes in that draft and they could have had him.  No single first round draft pick upsets me as much as Phillip freaking Dorsett.

[NewColtsFan]

10 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I got mad the night they took Dorsett and I still get mad when I think about it.  Look at all the good players he passed on for him.  I wanted Xavier Rhodes in that draft and they could have had him.  No single first round draft pick upsets me as much as Phillip freaking Dorsett.

You’re misremembering.    Those two players weren’t in the same draft.   Rhodes in 2013, Dorsett in 2015.   
 

The bust we took right in front of Rhodes was….   Bjorn freaking Werner.   Reason enough for you to be angry.   

[GoColts8818]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You’re misremembering.    Those two players weren’t in the same draft.   Rhodes in 2013, Dorsett in 2015.   
 

The bust we took right in front of Rhodes was….   Bjorn freaking Werner.   Reason enough for you to be angry.   

Honestly any first round draft pick not named Andrew Luck or Ryan Kelly that Grigson made was enough to be mad but for some reason Dorsett just took the cake with me even if I miss remembered the draft with him and the draft with Rhodes.  I do remember wanting Rhodes when he came out though and being disappointed that the Colts didn’t get him,

[NFLfan]

24 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I got mad the night they took Dorsett and I still get mad when I think about it.  Look at all the good players he passed on for him.  I wanted Xavier Rhodes in that draft and they could have had him.  No single first round draft pick upsets me as much as Phillip freaking Dorsett.

 

They were in different drafts but drafting Dorsett made many Colts fans upset in 2015. I was not here in 2013; so, I did not see the fans' reaction to not selecting Rhodes but I recall the fans' reaction to Dorsett. I did not understand the pick.

 

Grigson is now working for the Vikings. Last year we selected a WR that I thought we did not need while passing on other guys we liked better. I swore that it was Grigson that made the pick.

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Honestly any first round draft pick not named Andrew Luck or Ryan Kelly that Grigson made was enough to be mad but for some reason Dorsett just took the cake with me even if I miss remembered the draft with him and the draft with Rhodes.  I do remember wanting Rhodes when he came out though and being disappointed that the Colts didn’t get him,

Before Werner Houston took Dwayne Hopkins and after Werner Minn took Rhodes.   Werner was the turd between two very good players, one a potential Hall of Famer.  

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

They were in different drafts but drafting Dorsett made many Colts fans upset in 2015. I was not here in 2013; so, I did not see the fans' reaction to not selecting Rhodes but I recall the fans' reaction to Dorsett. I did not understand the pick.

 

Grigson is now working for the Vikings. Last year we selected a WR that I thought we did not need while passing on other guys we liked better. I swore that it was Grigson that made the pick.

You don’t like Jordan Addison?   I thought he had a very nice rookie season for the Vikings?   

[NFLfan]

Just now, NewColtsFan said:

You don’t like Jordan Addison?   I thought he had a very nice rookie season for the Vikings?   

 

He turned out to be very good, but at the time of the pick, I thought we could have selected other players, as we were in desperate need of defensive players. But Addison played very well, better than I expected.

[stitches]

3 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

these parts of @stitches post resonate most w me. I admit I am usually a Ballard supporter. Love his eye for talent. And generally agree w the approach to not overpay for the top tier free agents because the ones that hit the open market usually do for a reason and they reset the market when they aren’t the elite of the elite and don’t deserve to be the ones resetting the market. 
 

that said , now is the time to push hard when you have your rookie contract qb. And I’d bet behind the scenes the colts did and they fell short. 
 

Hunter is a great example. If he truly took less to go play at home then what can you do? 

I don't believe any of this post-hoc spin. He took less to play home. And even if we did believe it - OK... he did take less. What about the 100 other FAs we could have gotten? 

 

3 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

the funny things is this:

 

if you said the colts signed a top-3 free agent wr and a top cb and a top DT and that they spent around $200M in free agency, we would all be throwing our hands up in praise and hallelujah. 

 

thsts what they just did. But it Doesn’t feel that way because all of those guys were our home grown guys. So we didn’t really get better as a team. We spent that to just remain at the level we were at. 

 

This is exactly it... it feels like Ballard is not proactive... he's grabbing to the status quo and holding onto it for dear life. Like the status quo has actually given us anything to brag about? The Texans let go of one of their best defensive linemen... to replace him with a better one. The Chiefs let go of one of their best receivers... to replace him a better one... Those are teams that are not happy with what they had(and they were better than us) and tried to actually improve. Could that backfire? Sure. But at least they are trying to compete. What are we trying for? 

 

3 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

 

I don’t see any guys out there worth throwing major money at currently. I wanted Sneed. But that drama got to be exhausting and I don’t think he’s a $22M deserving guy either, especially not when trade compensation goes along w that cost. 
 

I wasn't the biggest fan of the idea of giving record setting contract to Sneed while also giving up significant draft compensation too. IMO you should only do that for elite players and as good as Sneed is IMO he's not quite at that level. But with that said -yes, there aren't many high level FAs remaining on the market. Because while other teams were busy chasing the high level FAs, Ballard was busy giving 14M contract to a backup nose tackle and resigning his PED implicated 31 year old starting nose tackle 40M contract. 

3 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

I will say this:

 

last year I was hell bent on needing OL upgrades. We did nothing. I thought we were doomed running it back w the same cast and just a new coach. I was wrong and sparano killed it. I think the exact same thing could happen this year for our DL. 

I wouldn't hold my breath quite honestly. With the OL there was precedent of them being great previously. With this DL there really hasn't been. We've been at the bottom of the league in creating pressures and affecting the QB for years. And the personnel will be the same more or less. A lot of people putting a lot of hope into the new DL coach. I liked that hire too, but you have to give the guy something to work with and apart from Buckner the rest of the group has never been more than... solid, and in a lot of cases much less than solid. 

 

3 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

if we make a couple solid secondary signings then we can allocate draft resources to critical areas and see a jump. 
 

after all, we spent recent fairly high draft capital in pierce, downs, woods, Brents, cross. Those guys haven’t made their leaps yet and if they do they’re a major improvement more so than free agency likely would bring. I have honest faith in this team if Richardson gets and stays healthy. But I’d love to add another elite pass catcher at 15 (please Thomas or Bowers if he’s there) or invest in Arnold or Mitchell and take advantage of the crazy wr depth and grab a good one in round two. 
 

Yep... it always comes back to this... hoping our draft picks will pan out. The problem with that of course is that over the long term most teams in the league have about the same success rate in the draft. And while other teams use all avenues to improve their team(draft, trades, FA), it seems like Ballard has resigned himself to the draft. He will draft and live or die by it. He's just too stuck in his ways and too stubborn to make any significant changes to his approach. 

3 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

I don’t see this as doom or gloom. And I do truly hope we live to see some exciting free agency news one of these years. This year it just happened to be all the internal re-signings were actually the right big money moves. 
 

That's the problem with Ballard. It's never exactly doom and gloom. I am never worried with him that this team will be horrible and hopeless. I worry that it will be mediocre... forever! Which it has been. He gives you just enough hope for your to think "maybe this year... maybe this guy will get better... maybe this draft pick will pan out", but in reality we are just treading water. 

 

3 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

but man, Sneed would have been fun lol

Yeah, Sneed could have been good for this defense... oh well... 

[NewColtsFan]

46 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Irsay or no other pro-sports owner is strapped for cash.  Look at the lifestyles they live.  These guys are swimming in money Scrooge McDuck style.  They like to get you to think that they are so that they have to pay for less things like the a new stadium and give them friendly tax breaks but they aren’t.  These guys are super rich even the small market teams like the Colts.  If you want to think they are strapped for cash go a head but we are going to agree to disagree.  

I think I need to clarify something…,  I’m NOT suggesting Irsay isn’t filthy rich.  That the Colts aren’t sound financially.  
 

All I’m saying is that from time to time the Colts might have cash flow problems.  Life as a small market team.   Nothing wrong with that.  The Colts do this (The “0” singing bonus) for a reason.  It benefits them.  And I think it’s smart business.   That’s all.   

[stitches]

6 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

"really great positive contributors -in the immediate"

 I really do hope your health is good.

 

 Well, we will have Taylor for the whole season.

We, might... or we might not... or we might lose someone else to injury. It's just what happens in the league. If it's not one player it will be another. It's a violent sport and players will miss games. 

6 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

I watched our season opener with Jaxs over the weekend. AR was 17-22 at one point and running a speeded up offense from the getgo. His head is going to be really straight in year 2.

You know how I feel about AR. I still think he needs improvements but the sky is the limit with him... I don't think there was anybody higher on him than me here. But first thing - he just needs to stay healthy. 

 

6 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 Downs was breaking their ankles and picking their zones apart. He had 67 catches last season. He is a stud.

Downs had a very promising rookie season. Hope he makes a jump in year 2 too... 

6 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 Ogeltree and Mallory were solid rookies, can't you believe in their 2nd year jump? Woods can still be really good. AR getting the ball downfield to Pierce.

Honestly. I'm not high on this TE group. The rumors about Woods are not great. Ogletree and Mallory IMO are JAGs at best. Which is OK for where they were drafted but they are not game changers. We need better... I guess if you believe in Brock Bowers we should be hoping he's there for us to take in the draft. 

6 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 Cross was making plays down the stretch.

Cross will need to make the jump because it looks like we might be losing Blackmon. He had some flashes at the end of the year, but he still needs to show consistency over a prolonged period of time.

6 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

We need a 2nd year bump from Juju. A little bump from Raimann. Definitely no more seive behind Grover.

I think Raimann is already very good. I'm not too enthused with the way Ballard has handled the DT position... 

 

6 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 2nd year of Steichen. I fully think we will be better.

Steichen was already doing wonders with what he was given last year. IMO the hope is that AR stays healthy and is able to unlock the full potential of what Steichen envisions in his offense. 

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

these parts of @stitches post resonate most w me. I admit I am usually a Ballard supporter. Love his eye for talent. And generally agree w the approach to not overpay for the top tier free agents because the ones that hit the open market usually do for a reason and they reset the market when they aren’t the elite of the elite and don’t deserve to be the ones resetting the market. 
 

that said , now is the time to push hard when you have your rookie contract qb. And I’d bet behind the scenes the colts did and they fell short. 
 

Hunter is a great example. If he truly took less to go play at home then what can you do? 
 

the funny things is this:

 

if you said the colts signed a top-3 free agent wr and a top cb and a top DT and that they spent around $200M in free agency, we would all be throwing our hands up in praise and hallelujah. 
 

thsts what they just did. But it Doesn’t feel that way because all of those guys were our home grown guys. So we didn’t really get better as a team. We spent that to just remain at the level we were at. 
 

I don’t see any guys out there worth throwing major money at currently. I wanted Sneed. But that drama got to be exhausting and I don’t think he’s a $22M deserving guy either, especially not when trade compensation goes along w that cost. 
 

I will say this:

 

last year I was hell bent on needing OL upgrades. We did nothing. I thought we were doomed running it back w the same cast and just a new coach. I was wrong and sparano killed it. I think the exact same thing could happen this year for our DL. 
 

if we make a couple solid secondary signings then we can allocate draft resources to critical areas and see a jump. 
 

after all, we spent recent fairly high draft capital in pierce, downs, woods, Brents, cross. Those guys haven’t made their leaps yet and if they do they’re a major improvement more so than free agency likely would bring. I have honest faith in this team if Richardson gets and stays healthy. But I’d love to add another elite pass catcher at 15 (please Thomas or Bowers if he’s there) or invest in Arnold or Mitchell and take advantage of the crazy wr depth and grab a good one in round two. 
 

I don’t see this as doom or gloom. And I do truly hope we live to see some exciting free agency news one of these years. This year it just happened to be all the internal re-signings were actually the right big money moves. 
 

but man, Sneed would have been fun lol

Hey, Tom!    Good to see you posting again!    I know you like to show up this time of year to offer your insight.   
 

As I like to tell you every year, I’m sure you’re posting as often as you can,  but I think many here would love to see you post more often!   This website is always better when you’re posting more!   

[NFLfan]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

Hey, Tom!    Good to see you posting again!    I know you like to show up this time of year to offer your insight.   
 

As I like to tell you every year, I’m sure you’re posting as often as you can,  but I think many here would love to see you post more often!   This website is always better when you’re posting more!   

I agree.

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Hey, Tom!    Good to see you posting again!    I know you like to show up this time of year to offer your insight.   
 

As I like to tell you every year, I’m sure you’re posting as often as you can,  but I think many here would love to see you post more often!   This website is always better when you’re posting more!   

Agreed. Tom always brings thoughtful perspective to the forum and I enjoy reading his posts. 

[Solid84]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Feels like a good time to issue a reminder.  Two years ago, J’Ville spent a fortune in FA.   That was the year they surprised the NFL giving the little WR, Kirk 4/72 which had incentives into the $80’s.   And J’Ville went on to have a good season. 
 

Many here showered the Jaguars with applause and wondered why can’t the Colts do that?!   But here’s what they forget….

 

In the 10 years BEFORE that one, no team spent more in FA than the Jaguars.   $1.4 BILLION dollars.  That’s billion with a B.  And I think they had one post season appearance to show for it.  So most years Jacksonville “won” free agency and they had almost nothing to show for it. 
 

So when @GoColts8818 says the “winner” of FA typically doesn’t have a very good season, he is correct.  It was his comment that triggered my memory about Jacksonville’s lost decade.  Thanks, GC! 

This gets peddled like it means spending in FA doesn’t work. The Rams won a Super Bowl by spending. The Colts don’t spend and haven’t won bupkis since Ballard got here. 
 

I’m not saying the Colts should just spend mindlessly and I don’t think that’s what anyone wants. But, Ballard’s gotta cover his draft misses by spending in FA otherwise we’ll never win with him at the helm.  

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

This gets peddled like it means spending in FA doesn’t work. The Rams won a Super Bowl by spending. The Colts don’t spend and haven’t won bupkis since Ballard got here. 
 

I’m not saying the Colts should just spend mindlessly and I don’t think that’s what anyone wants. But, Ballard’s gotta cover his draft misses by spending in FA otherwise we’ll never win with him at the helm.  

Spending doesn't mean you will win. You still need to spend smart and you still need to draft well and overall make good decisions. 

 

Not spending limits you in your roster construction. I don't know why it's so hard for people to understand. The best teams in the league use ALL available avenues for improving their team. They do not limit themselves artificially with what's possible to achieve. They also concentrate resources into windows of contention. This means at any given time, if you are not spending you are competing against teams that are pouring resources into trying to win it RIGHT NOW. You will just always be at disadvantage because while 1 specific team will need to reload and take their lumps for spending too much in short period of time once in a while, the league as a whole will always have at least a few teams that are in that high spending mode chasing a window for contention. 

 

Now... is it possible you strike gold and beat those teams while relying almost exclusively on the draft? It's possible. If you string together a few insane draft classes. But it's not very likely... 

[stitches]

With all that said... 

 

 

 

[Hawkeyecolt]

3 hours ago, csmopar said:

Haha I was wondering when that comment was gonna be made.  It comes up every single year. And it’s proven false every time. Irsay isn’t cash strapped and would have had zero problem putting anything up into escrow(only a small portion would actually have to come from Irsays pocket if any).

 

 

Could he do it?  Sure, but it is much tougher for him than most owners in the NFL.  The Colts just layed out $200 million this free agency.  I imagine over half in guaranteed money.  That’s a lot for Jim. 

[NewColtsFan]

12 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

This gets peddled like it means spending in FA doesn’t work. The Rams won a Super Bowl by spending. The Colts don’t spend and haven’t won bupkis since Ballard got here. 
 

I’m not saying the Colts should just spend mindlessly and I don’t think that’s what anyone wants. But, Ballard’s gotta cover his draft misses by spending in FA otherwise we’ll never win with him at the helm.  

For your consideration….   Nobody knew who Ebukam was when the Colts signed him week 2 last year.   And nobody knew who Denico Autry was when the Colts signed him in week 2.   “Who?” Was the most popular comment both times.  They turned out really well.   
 

Im not sayin Ballard is going to do it again this year, it hasn’t happened every year, all I’m saying it’s happened from time to time so it’s still possible that CB will find a keeper that people here will like. 

[Solid84]

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

For your consideration….   Nobody knew who Ebukam was when the Colts signed him week 2 last year.   And nobody knew who Denico Autry was when the Colts signed him in week 2.   “Who?” Was the most popular comment both times.  They turned out really well.   
 

Im not sayin Ballard is going to do it again this year, it hasn’t happened every year, all I’m saying it’s happened from time to time so it’s still possible that CB will find a keeper that people here will like. 

And those are about the best signings the Colts have done under Ballard in 8 years. 
 

Has Ballard even spent over $10+m once in a FA? Gilmore maybe? That’s once. In going on 8 years. 
 

Noone does what Ballard does and he hasn’t had success doing it, so noone’s trying to replicate it. 

[NewColtsFan]

21 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

And those are about the best signings the Colts have done under Ballard in 8 years. 
 

Has Ballard even spent over $10+m once in a FA? Gilmore maybe? That’s once. In going on 8 years. 
 

Noone does what Ballard does and he hasn’t had success doing it, so noone’s trying to replicate it. 

Off the top of my head….    Once.  Justin Houston who got 2/23.5.   And that worked out well.   

[Solid84]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Off the top of my head….    Once.  Justin Houston who got 2/23.5.   And that worked out well.   

So spending to cover flaws works now? Seems to contradict you comment about the Jaguars.

 

To be clear, I don't want or expect Ballard to sign $35m/year players left and right. But there are plenty mid-range (pay-wise) guys who sign with other teams EVERY year that could've improved this roster.

 

This year OTOH:

• Frankie Luvu
• Sheldon Rankins
• Geno Stone
• Patrick Queen
• Jeremy Chinn
• Kevin Byard
• Jordan Fuller
• Sean Murphy-Bunting
• Kamren Curl

 

And several more expensive guys:

• Arik Armstead
• Christian Wilkins
• Bryce Huff
• Xavier McKinney

Every year guys like these pass us by.

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

So spending to cover flaws works now? Seems to contradict you comment about the Jaguars.

 

To be clear, I don't want or expect Ballard to sign $35m/year players left and right. But there are plenty mid-range (pay-wise) guys who sign with other teams EVERY year that could've improved this roster.

 

This year OTOH:

• Frankie Luvu
• Sheldon Rankins
• Geno Stone
• Patrick Queen
• Jeremy Chinn
• Kevin Byard
• Jordan Fuller
• Sean Murphy-Bunting
• Kamren Curl

 

And several more expensive guys:

• Arik Armstead
• Christian Wilkins
• Bryce Huff
• Xavier McKinney

Every year guys like these pass us by.

Nothing contradicts anything.   J’Ville if bad reckless spending and it got them one year of success out of 10.   No contradictions here.  
 

As for Ballard, as he said at his year ender, the problem hasn’t been the FA spending or the roster.   The problem has been not being to get the quarterback right.  If Wentz had worked out, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.   
 

I have no idea why you’d think Ballard should have considered the 4 big name players who Ballard didn’t pursue.   They went for HUGE money.   Ballard has zero interest in those guys.  As a fan who follows football closer than most I had zero interest in any of them.   And I had zero interest BEFORE they signed and it was expected they’d go for less.   I didn’t want them at most any price they would’ve wanted. 
 

Of your longer list….  Frankie Luvu had some interest for me.  Maybe Geno stone.  Otherwise I believe there’s a list of safeties who are still available.   Remember Rodney McCloud?   Ballard signed him and he had perhaps the best year of his career.  Graded in the low 80’s for 1.7 mill.   That’s a Ballard signing.   People forget them.   They want bright lights and shiny new toys.  
 

We should all know by now that’s not Ballard’s way.  

[Superman]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

If I may….    I’ll share some information that I’ve had for about 4 months.   It may or may not surprise you.  This is what I tried to send you the other night but somehow screwed up.   
 

These are the big signing bonuses the Colts have given out over the years when the players 2nd contract came around:  this is from Spotrac. 

 

Nelson:   $31m

Leonard:  $20m

Smith:      $15m

Taylor:      $10.24m

Stewart:    $5m 

 

 

BUT…..    I also found this….

 

*** When Ballard signed Buckner to 4/84 his SB was 0.

*** When Ballard signed Kelly to 4/50 his signing bonus was 0.

*** When Ballard signed Moore to 4/33 his signing bonus was 0. 
*** When Ballard signed MAC to 3/19 his SB was 0. 

 

To be clear, no agent lets their client sign a deal like this out of the goodness of their heart to help the team.  I think it stands to reason they get something in return.  And I think it’s a higher amount of guaranteed money.  That’s money the player would get even if the team cut the player before the contract was done.   Guaranteeing a higher percentage of money doesn’t cost the Colts anything if the team is confident the player will be in the roster for the life of the contract. 
 

I view this as a sign of a small market team.   The Colts wanted to do this.  It’s to their advantage.  I’m not blaming the Colts for doing this, I think it’s smart business.  But I think it’s a sign that from time to time, Irsay needs a little help so he doesn’t have to write a large check.  
 

This is my view.   I welcome input from all. 

 

@w87r   @Superman  @GoColts8818

 

 

I think this is probably deserving of it's own thread, but I'll leave this initial response here. I'm happy to continue the conversation in another thread.

 

There are a couple of pertinent details that I don't think you're considering.

 

First, signing bonuses are due upon signing. They aren't necessarily paid upon signing. This article suggests signing bonuses can be paid over the course of 12-18 months. Some signing bonuses are paid in installments. So just because a player contract includes a $20m signing bonus doesn't mean the team is paying the player $20m the day he signs; the player might not receive that $20m for several months, a year, or longer. The pay dates for signing bonuses are almost never reported.

 

Second, a more comprehensive look at the contracts you mentioned would include roster bonuses. For example, while Buckner's contract did not include a signing bonus, it did include an $11m roster bonus. Spotrac shows the roster bonus was due to be paid on 3/20/2020, which was four days after Buckner's contract was signed. For cash flow purposes, there isn't necessarily a difference. (Ryan Kelly, $10m roster bonus; Kenny Moore, $8m; Mo Alie-Cox, $5.1m.)

 

Take a closer look at this. Buckner signed a four year extension for $84m, on top of his 5th year option, for a total value of five years, $96.4m. No signing bonus, but the $11m roster bonus, plus a base salary of $12.4m in 2020. The total cash paid to Buckner in the first year was $23.4m. The same day the Colts signed Buckner, the Niners signed Arik Armstead. His contract was five years, $85m, and included a $17.5m signing bonus (no details on the pay dates of the signing bonus). His base salary in 2020 was $2.5m. So the cash paid to Armstead in the first year was $20m, and that's assuming all of his signing bonus was paid out in 2020. In both cases, the Year 1 cash was about 24% of the total value of the contract.

 

Another example from the same year: Myles Garrett signed for five years, $125m, and his signing bonus and salary totaled $22m, less than 18% of the total value. The previous year, Frank Clark signed with the Chiefs for five years, $104m, with a $19m signing bonus, and a salary + incentives of $1.3m, totaling $20.3m in Year 1 cash, less than 20% of the total value. 

 

There's also the funding rule, which requires that deferred money and fully guaranteed money is placed in escrow when the contract is signed, minus $15m. So if the Colts were offsetting lower signing bonuses with a higher percentage of guaranteed money, they would still need to fund the guaranteed money upfront. So there's really no cash flow benefit to the team; in fact, it would potentially cost the team more to fund the larger guarantees. 

 

All of this put together, I don't think that the Colts are avoiding signing bonuses for cash flow reasons. I'm sure Irsay doesn't have the cash flow of the Rams or Broncos, etc., but I don't think the Colts are using contract structure to help cash flow. 

[Solid84]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Nothing contradicts anything.   J’Ville if bad reckless spending and it got them one year of success out of 10.   No contradictions here.  

That's fair.

 

Quote

As for Ballard, as he said at his year ender, the problem hasn’t been the FA spending or the roster.   The problem has been not being to get the quarterback right.  If Wentz had worked out, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.   

So, let's say AR pans out - are we serious Super Bowl contenders then? As the roster is right now, with a high-level AR?

 

I don't think so. I think our roster - disregarding the QB - is a ways behind other contenders. And even worse, I think the roster is just built wrong. This year Ballard has spent a lot of money making sure our defense can defend the run while everyone else are building to stop the passing game. Everything Ballard does is just contradictory to what works in the modern NFL.

 

Quote

I have no idea why you’d think Ballard should have considered the 4 big name players who Ballard didn’t pursue.   They went for HUGE money.   Ballard has zero interest in those guys.  As a fan who follows football closer than most I had zero interest in any of them.   And I had zero interest BEFORE they signed and it was expected they’d go for less.   I didn’t want them at most any price they would’ve wanted. 

So what about the other 9 guys I mentioned?

 

Wilkins would've been a Buckner level DT to seriously improve the pass rush up the middle. Huff had at least 28% more pressures than ANY of our guys (Buckner highest) while playing 161 FEWER pass rush snaps. And he was signed for a hair over $17m/year and you have "no idea why I'd think Ballard should have considered the 4 big name players who Ballard didn’t pursue"?

 

Quote

Of your longer list….  Frankie Luvu had some interest for me.  Maybe Geno stone.  Otherwise I believe there’s a list of safeties who are still available.   Remember Rodney McCloud?   Ballard signed him and he had perhaps the best year of his career.  Graded in the low 80’s for 1.7 mill.   That’s a Ballard signing.   People forget them.   They want bright lights and shiny new toys.  

Do you think Geno Stone and Frankie Luvu are "bright lights"? I think they are affordable players who would improve this roster in areas of weakness. Same with the other 7 affordable guys I mentioned. The times the McLeod signings work out are so far between it's laughable, but the few who do workout somehow always make people forget the tens of 1 year jags he signs that don't.

 

Quote

We should all know by now that’s not Ballard’s way.  

We do know, but we also all see the results and that's what people want to see change.

 

I respect your opinion on this and I don't want to come off as harsh towards you (or anyone else). 👍 

But I very much disagree that what Ballard is doing is working.

[NewColtsFan]

11 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

That's fair.

 

So, let's say AR pans out - are we serious Super Bowl contenders then? As the roster is right now, with a high-level AR?

 

I don't think so. I think our roster - disregarding the QB - is a ways behind other contenders. And even worse, I think the roster is just built wrong. This year Ballard has spent a lot of money making sure our defense can defend the run while everyone else are building to stop the passing game. Everything Ballard does is just contradictory to what works in the modern NFL.

 

So what about the other 9 guys I mentioned?

 

Wilkins would've been a Buckner level DT to seriously improve the pass rush up the middle. Huff had at least 28% more pressures than ANY of our guys (Buckner highest) while playing 161 FEWER pass rush snaps. And he was signed for a hair over $17m/year and you have "no idea why I'd think Ballard should have considered the 4 big name players who Ballard didn’t pursue"?

 

Do you think Geno Stone and Frankie Luvu are "bright lights"? I think they are affordable players who would improve this roster in areas of weakness. Same with the other 7 affordable guys I mentioned. The times the McLeod signings work out are so far between it's laughable, but the few who do workout somehow always make people forget the tens of 1 year jags he signs that don't.

 

We do know, but we also all see the results and that's what people want to see change.

 

I respect your opinion on this and I don't want to come off as harsh towards you (or anyone else). 👍 

But I very much disagree that what Ballard is doing is working.

I’d like to focus on one paragraph.   The one about AR working out.   You connect AR working out, which will take 2-4 more years to confirm with “the roster as it is now.”    Thats a flaw.   When we know about AR working out, whether it’s 26, or 27,  that will be connected to the roster that he has THEN, not the roster he has NOW.   See the disconnect?  The roster should be better to support AR.

 

And I wouldn’t call guys like Luvu or Stone, both guys I like, as shiny toys.  They’re solid players I think we’d all like.  The Sony toys are the four big name plays you listed.  Those guys are just too expensive.  

[NewColtsFan]

29 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think this is probably deserving of it's own thread, but I'll leave this initial response here. I'm happy to continue the conversation in another thread.

 

There are a couple of pertinent details that I don't think you're considering.

 

First, signing bonuses are due upon signing. They aren't necessarily paid upon signing. This article suggests signing bonuses can be paid over the course of 12-18 months. Some signing bonuses are paid in installments. So just because a player contract includes a $20m signing bonus doesn't mean the team is paying the player $20m the day he signs; the player might not receive that $20m for several months, a year, or longer. The pay dates for signing bonuses are almost never reported.

 

Second, a more comprehensive look at the contracts you mentioned would include roster bonuses. For example, while Buckner's contract did not include a signing bonus, it did include an $11m roster bonus. Spotrac shows the roster bonus was due to be paid on 3/20/2020, which was four days after Buckner's contract was signed. For cash flow purposes, there isn't necessarily a difference. (Ryan Kelly, $10m roster bonus; Kenny Moore, $8m; Mo Alie-Cox, $5.1m.)

 

Take a closer look at this. Buckner signed a four year extension for $84m, on top of his 5th year option, for a total value of five years, $96.4m. No signing bonus, but the $11m roster bonus, plus a base salary of $12.4m in 2020. The total cash paid to Buckner in the first year was $23.4m. The same day the Colts signed Buckner, the Niners signed Arik Armstead. His contract was five years, $85m, and included a $17.5m signing bonus (no details on the pay dates of the signing bonus). His base salary in 2020 was $2.5m. So the cash paid to Armstead in the first year was $20m, and that's assuming all of his signing bonus was paid out in 2020. In both cases, the Year 1 cash was about 24% of the total value of the contract.

 

Another example from the same year: Myles Garrett signed for five years, $125m, and his signing bonus and salary totaled $22m, less than 18% of the total value. The previous year, Frank Clark signed with the Chiefs for five years, $104m, with a $19m signing bonus, and a salary + incentives of $1.3m, totaling $20.3m in Year 1 cash, less than 20% of the total value. 

 

There's also the funding rule, which requires that deferred money and fully guaranteed money is placed in escrow when the contract is signed, minus $15m. So if the Colts were offsetting lower signing bonuses with a higher percentage of guaranteed money, they would still need to fund the guaranteed money upfront. So there's really no cash flow benefit to the team; in fact, it would potentially cost the team more to fund the larger guarantees. 

 

All of this put together, I don't think that the Colts are avoiding signing bonuses for cash flow reasons. I'm sure Irsay doesn't have the cash flow of the Rams or Broncos, etc., but I don't think the Colts are using contract structure to help cash flow. 

Great post, thanks.  One of your best. 
 

I think your roster bonus argument crushes my signing bonus argument.   100 percent flattens it.   Like a Quinton Nelson pancake!   I don’t see a counter argument.  
 

Many thanks.          

[Solid84]

10 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I’d like to focus on one paragraph.   The one about AR working out.   You connect AR working out, which will take 2-4 more years to confirm with “the roster as it is now.”    Thats a flaw.   When we know about AR working out, whether it’s 26, or 27,  that will be connected to the roster that he has THEN, not the roster he has NOW.   See the disconnect?  The roster should be better to support AR.

The problem is Ballard drafts traitsy raw guys more often than not, so by the time AR is ready we likely won't know if the guys he drafted are IT. That issue then gets compounded by Ballard not using FA to bring in guys who work NOW. THEN if the guys he drafts miss, we'll be waiting another 2-4 years on the next batch... see the problem?

 

Quote

And I wouldn’t call guys like Luvu or Stone, both guys I like, as shiny toys.  They’re solid players I think we’d all like.  The Sony toys are the four big name plays you listed.  Those guys are just too expensive.  

That's fair I guess, but Armstead and Huff were signed for ~$17m/year.

 

Huff was the 2nd most efficient pass rusher IN THE LEAGUE in 2023 behind only Micah Parson - that's better than Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Nick Bosa you name 'em. For $17m that's worth taking a shot at, because even if he only produces at a good level he'd still likely be a Jonathan Greenard who signed for $19m. IF he works out though he'd be the bargain of the decade.

 

Armstead has already played with Buckner and he would be a big upgrade over Grover Stewart for $4m more per year than what we signed Grover for.

[OhioColt]

On 3/15/2024 at 8:51 AM, chad72 said:

OK @Shive @Superman @shasta519 @OhioColt what were your evaluations of Skyy Moore when he was in the draft?

 

Do you think he’s a good buy low candidate for a 6th or 7th rounder? Not sure if he’s available but just wanted to hear your thoughts.

Sorry late to the party line chat on Page 57 of 94

 

Skyy Moore, deleted that draft class and notes but Moore seemed to have some potential but wasn't sold on him.  Viewed Moore as an average receiver not much more.  I wouldn't trade for him.

 

If you were looking to trade for any WR, I would suggest targeting the Packer's Dontayvion Wicks. 

 

As for some of these other comments that I have read up and not going to ready through 30 pages.  Colts spent 200M on most of their own (top NFL) players, 

 

Recent news I saw is that the Colts haven't had any communication talks about trading for Sneed.  How true that is or not to be seen.  Seems the Colts have done a lot spending 200M on their own and doubt we have much cap space left to sign a big-name player like Sneed.  Still haven't seen latest cap space figures since our latest signing.  

 

The Colts build through the draft and those expectations will not change this season.  Again, our organization was lucky enough to sign some of our best positional players.  Sadly, not everyone can get resigned and do expect Blackmon to move on.  Latest rumor is Blackmon signs with the Bills. 

[csmopar]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

“Proven false every year.”   I’m completely unaware of that.   And I’m here every day. 

Plus….   I wouldn’t be so sure that Irsay doesn’t have cash flow trouble from time to time.  
 

Your post is stated as fact.   Feels very much like opinion to me.    You might be right, but I don’t think anyone knows. 

It is fact. You do understand where the money to pay player salaries and such comes from right? I mean it’s right there in the CBA…

 

the league basically places the money in an escrow account every year directly from the league, which is a portion of the revenue set aside for player salaries from the leagues various sources(tv deals for example). It never touches the owners pockets first.  Jim Irsay could have only 10 cents in his account and it wouldn’t matter when it comes to player salaries. 

yes, guaranteed monies and such have to be put in upfront but if you read the fine print, that money is basically reimbursed the to the team the year it’s paid out. So 2025 guarantees would be paid back to the team in 2025 from the player salaries fund. 
 

and yes, I’ve linked it every year for the past 5-6 years. Ever since the beginning of the Ballard era, which seems to be when this notion of Irsay not having cash for this or that came up as a rationale for not signing big name FA. It’s not though when one actually looks up how that all works. 

[csmopar]

3 hours ago, Hawkeyecolt said:

Could he do it?  Sure, but it is much tougher for him than most owners in the NFL.  The Colts just layed out $200 million this free agency.  I imagine over half in guaranteed money.  That’s a lot for Jim. 

See above^

[stitches]

3 hours ago, Solid84 said:

And those are about the best signings the Colts have done under Ballard in 8 years. 
 

Has Ballard even spent over $10+m once in a FA? Gilmore maybe? That’s once. In going on 8 years. 
 

Noone does what Ballard does and he hasn’t had success doing it, so noone’s trying to replicate it. 

I think he paid Johnathan Hankins about 10M per year(30/3) in his first free agency when he was remaking the whole defense. 

In 2019 he signed Justin Houston for 24/2... and Devin Funchess for 13M... 

In 2020 - Rivers...

In 2021 - none

In 2022 - Gilmore

In 2023 - none

[Solid84]

19 minutes ago, stitches said:

I think he paid Johnathan Hankins about 10M per year(30/3) in his first free agency when he was remaking the whole defense. 

In 2019 he signed Justin Houston for 24/2... and Devin Funchess for 13M... 

In 2020 - Rivers...

In 2021 - none

In 2022 - Gilmore

In 2023 - none

So four times in 8 years.

 

We've just spent $200m to stay the same. I mean instead re-signing Stewart and extending Franklin sign Arik Armstead and Frankie Luvu than add a safety like Kamren Curl and a CB like Sean Murphy-Bunting. That would've cost us, what, $20m year more? Tell me the defense wouldn't instantly be better...

[stitches]

9 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

So four times in 8 years.

 

We've just spent $200m to stay the same. I mean instead re-signing Stewart and extending Franklin sign Arik Armstead and Frankie Luvu than add a safety like Kamren Curl and a CB like Sean Murphy-Bunting. That would've cost us, what, $20m year more? Tell me the defense wouldn't instantly be better...

Absolutely... Ballard just is very high on... himself. He likes the guys he has liked before and there is noone that likes his guys like he likes them(thus he's the one resigning them)...

 

My soccer team is in deep financial trouble and can't afford much of any new signings of substance so when asked by reporters about his roster our coach said "If you can't have what you like, you better like what you have". I feel like that with the Colts. Except there is no financial reason for the Colts to limit themselves like that. It's purely philosophical approach by the GM. 

[Two_pound]

Does anyone really think that Chief roster is good enough to make the playoffs minus Mahomes? I don't. If it weren't for mahomes, their running backs would scare no one. They would have one reliable pass catcher who be be able to make plays(Kelce). And there defense would suddenly look very ordinary and wear down from an offense that would go three and out way to often(think our offense with Matt Ryan and his ability to not throw the ball downfield). When you have a qb the caliber of Mahomes you can do things differently because Mahomes makes everyone else on the team look better. Question, how many superbowls did Reid win in his career before Mahomes became his qb?

[Yoshinator]

21 minutes ago, Two_pound said:

Does anyone really think that Chief roster is good enough to make the playoffs minus Mahomes? I don't. If it weren't for mahomes, their running backs would scare no one. They would have one reliable pass catcher who be be able to make plays(Kelce). And there defense would suddenly look very ordinary and wear down from an offense that would go three and out way to often(think our offense with Matt Ryan and his ability to not throw the ball downfield). When you have a qb the caliber of Mahomes you can do things differently because Mahomes makes everyone else on the team look better. Question, how many superbowls did Reid win in his career before Mahomes became his qb?

Rashee Rice is honestly very good. He's their no1 receiver and a lot of the time outperformed Kelce last year as a rookie. They also have two elite CBs (we don't have one) so that allows them to shut down the passing game (as evident by their defense last year and their run in the playoffs). Mahomes is elite, but Ballard didn't even try to get a QB in the draft until 2023 after Luck left. We can blame it on Reich and all that, but it's a fact. 

[lollygagger8]

This might be the most boring FA period of Ballard's entire time here....and that's really saying something. 

[Goatface Killah]

4 hours ago, Solid84 said:

That's fair.

 

So, let's say AR pans out - are we serious Super Bowl contenders then? As the roster is right now, with a high-level AR?

 

I don't think so. I think our roster - disregarding the QB - is a ways behind other contenders. And even worse, I think the roster is just built wrong. This year Ballard has spent a lot of money making sure our defense can defend the run while everyone else are building to stop the passing game. Everything Ballard does is just contradictory to what works in the modern NFL.

 

So what about the other 9 guys I mentioned?

 

Wilkins would've been a Buckner level DT to seriously improve the pass rush up the middle. Huff had at least 28% more pressures than ANY of our guys (Buckner highest) while playing 161 FEWER pass rush snaps. And he was signed for a hair over $17m/year and you have "no idea why I'd think Ballard should have considered the 4 big name players who Ballard didn’t pursue"?

 

Do you think Geno Stone and Frankie Luvu are "bright lights"? I think they are affordable players who would improve this roster in areas of weakness. Same with the other 7 affordable guys I mentioned. The times the McLeod signings work out are so far between it's laughable, but the few who do workout somehow always make people forget the tens of 1 year jags he signs that don't.

 

We do know, but we also all see the results and that's what people want to see change.

 

I respect your opinion on this and I don't want to come off as harsh towards you (or anyone else). 👍 

But I very much disagree that what Ballard is doing is working.

So him drafting a bunch of corners and pass rushers over the last couple of years counts for nothing? Saying he doesnt try to improve the pass defense is just blatantly false. 

 

Improved run defense absolutely can help pass defense. 

 

Also.....

 

We won 4 games 2 years ago. 

 

Last year we won 9 with a back up QB.

 

And we didnt sign any high priced free agents last year either. We also traded our best corner.

 

So how did we do that? Improve? 

 

Maybe this theory you have that pass defense is that important is just not true? I mean you say our pass defense was bad last year and we still won 9 games, right?

 

The amount of faith you are putting into free agency is completely unwarranted. It just doesnt work hardly ever. Draft and develop is far superior. 

 

 

[07dleigh]

 Man, I am realllly starting to get frustrated...

I've always liked Ballard.. a lot. I'm typically all for what he stands for: methodical vs rapid, effective vs flashy, sticking to your guns regardless of pressure.. I liked his rare "build the trenches and play physical" philosophy in contrast to today's game, heck, I just like the guy.. I like his swagger and confidence.

 

But wth are we doing, man? WHY is he so okay with having NONE of the top ANYTHING in the game? Year after year.. in a division that's so winnable? Is he trying to win an award for best cap management or is he trying to get over a hump? THESE ONE YEAR DEALS AREN'T GOING TO GET IT DONE.

 

This isn't about Sneed.. frankly I'm not even sure how I'd feel about paying a 28 year old corner so much. I wouldn't mind but that's not what I'm on about. I feel like this was a great FA (and trade candidate) class in positions we could use, and we did NOTHING... while letting our division rivals open a gap. If there was a year to do something that ACTUALLY made a difference, I thought it'd be this year given we actually have the QB.

 

Sorry, had to rant with my morning coffee before I took it out on my coworkers 😆. Go Colts, nonetheless.