Lance Zierlein Mock Draft 1.0

[jskinnz]

3 hours ago, richard pallo said:

I believe Ballard has NEVER opened his wallet for an expensive FA because he didn’t think his team was close enough where he thought such an investment was the right time.  I think he is now confident he has the quarterback and coach and solid nucleus of a team to make those kind of moves.  I would bet he feels his window has just opened and the next few years will be his opportunity to make some aggressive moves to go for that Super Bowl.

I believe you are setting yourself up for disappointment yet again. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

I think Penix bombs in the NFL. Nice college player but I just don’t think his game translates. 
 

Just my opinion

See I think the same about McCarthy, he is the next AJ McCarron or Mac Jones IMO. Penix has a great arm and good mobility. The only problem with Penix is, can he stay healthy. 

[OhioColt]

21 hours ago, Solid84 said:

We have TWO top 10 tackles. We need depth, sure, but that's not what the 15th overall pick is for...

 

Top priority is playmakers on both side of the ball. Oline is for later in the draft this season.

In another bizarro universe of logic thinking...

 

NFL roster building is like a game of chess.  Plug-and-play centers are few and far between. Unless a team is willing to spend a top pick on the position, growing pains should be expected.  Sure, a potential fourth round pick can play like a first rounder.  Biadasz didn’t have the best 2022 and PFF graded his performance with a 60.5 score, which ranked 22nd best for centers.  Do you start a rookie or draft and develop in anticipation.  Centers normally take time to develop.  Another reason why JPJ who only has one season playing at center but is more experienced at guard will take time to groom for the future.

 

How many more concussions will be the red flag to end Kelly’s career.  He is already thinking about life after football and looking after himself and his family.  The two concussions he suffered this season should be an awakening for him knowing that he has had five or six in total since he started playing football and his time at Alabama.  The twins were born in June and family is important part of life after football.  See how being a father changes his perspective while trying to be smart about his NFL career. Jim Irsay’s recent health scare might be an eye opener.

 

Round 2 double dip and take RG Christian Haynes (UConn) to rebuild the Colts offensive line.  Obviously, anything can happen and change the course of history and the draft strategy and free agency needs.  We have been through it before and assume it won't be the last time.

 

As a realist, who each year has a fraction of the players listed and continue to unlock names of young men entering the draft this year my draft board is constantly changing.  Newer mock draft model would look like this now.

 

Round 1 CB Terriorn Arnold (Alabama) or FS/CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa) depending on who the Vikings select.

 

Round 2 TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (Texas) - Typical Y/H-back role.  Shown ability to make contested catches and can separate from defenders.  Should be a reliable red zone target.  Projecting to cap cut MAC and Sanders is the next best TE behind Bowers who I expect to be a top-10 pick.

 

Round 3 SS/FS/LB/Nickel Jaden Hicks (Washington State) - Had Hicks as a future draft class on my future big board with a sophomore designation.  Missed that he declared until recently.  Like Dejean, Hicks offers that position versatility. 

 

Round 4 Max Melton (Rutgers) – Melton clocked the second fasted time at the Senior Bowl at 20.96 MPH.  Or CB Cam Hart (ND) – 6’2” 204 pounds with 32 5/8” arms.  The lack of DB depth and those capable of starting has been obvious that past few years.  The trust in young rookie type players once again will be in question over a proven veteran.  Cam Hart checked a lot of boxes at the Senior Bowl that the Colts looks for and was also a team captain at Notre Dame.

 

Round 5 WR-SL Jha’Quan Jackson (Tulane) – Scout comparisons to Zay Flowers.  Improved his draft stock at the Senior Bowl.  Earned Second Team All-ACC returner in 2022.  

 

Round 6 RB Cody Schrader (Missouri) – Projected Round 5.  Work-house capable of all three-downs.  In 2023 earned First Team All-American, First Team All-SEC, and was Doak Award Finalist.  Shown soft hands for catches.

 

Round 7 Edge Brennan Jackson (Washington St) – history of FF and had 4 FR in 2023.  Second Team All-Pac-12 in 2022 and 2023.  Good against the run needs to improve pass-rushing.  Above-average athlete needs developed.  Did have 8.5 sacks in 2023.

 

Missed out on upgrading our linebackers.  Did like WLB Cedric Gray (UNC) but major concern was 57 missed tackles over three years and 19 in 2023 alone.  Wouldn't mind WLB Payton Wilson (NC) or MLB Junior Colson (Michigan).  Am content on this season continuing with Franklin and Speed but looking over upcoming free agents do hope the Colts consider bringing in SLB Zack Baun (Saints).  WLB JD Bertrand (ND) as an UDFA could be a possibility. 

[indykmj]

On 2/7/2024 at 7:36 AM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would be on Cloud 9 if we drafted Bowers. Game changing TE's like him don't come around very often. He has the talent to become a Kelce or Gronk type, perhaps even like Dallas Clark. 

 

Other thoughts:

 

JJ McCarthy at #12?? Michael Penix JR and Bo Nix both are better. So, I don't get that one.

 

 NOT a UM fan. But McCarthy will go top-10. The NFL thinks more highly of him than

 the Draft Media does. 

 

 

[Yoshinator]

42 minutes ago, indykmj said:

 

 NOT a UM fan. But McCarthy will go top-10. The NFL thinks more highly of him than

 the Draft Media does. 

 

 

I think he'll go 11 or 12 to the Vikings or Broncos. Just outside the top 10.

[Defjamz26]

The NFLSE podcast did a show breaking down this same mock from Zurlein. One thing they said is that the Colts pick likely comes down to Bowers or Quinyon Mitchell. That seems very plausible to me. I’ve seen two people who are plugged into the league (DJ and Zierlein) both mock Bowers to us. I have to accept that it’s a real possibility now.

[indykmj]

22 hours ago, Yoshinator said:

I think he'll go 11 or 12 to the Vikings or Broncos. Just outside the top 10.

  Someone will end up having to trade up into the top-10 to grab McCarthy.

 

 

 

 

[MikeCurtis]

On 2/7/2024 at 2:58 PM, Solid84 said:

 We're not drafting a Olineman with the 15th overall. It's not happening.

I hope you are right man

[Zoltan]

On 2/8/2024 at 7:09 PM, OhioColt said:

In another bizarro universe of logic thinking...

 

NFL roster building is like a game of chess.  Plug-and-play centers are few and far between. Unless a team is willing to spend a top pick on the position, growing pains should be expected.  Sure, a potential fourth round pick can play like a first rounder.  Biadasz didn’t have the best 2022 and PFF graded his performance with a 60.5 score, which ranked 22nd best for centers.  Do you start a rookie or draft and develop in anticipation.  Centers normally take time to develop.  Another reason why JPJ who only has one season playing at center but is more experienced at guard will take time to groom for the future.

 

How many more concussions will be the red flag to end Kelly’s career.  He is already thinking about life after football and looking after himself and his family.  The two concussions he suffered this season should be an awakening for him knowing that he has had five or six in total since he started playing football and his time at Alabama.  The twins were born in June and family is important part of life after football.  See how being a father changes his perspective while trying to be smart about his NFL career. Jim Irsay’s recent health scare might be an eye opener.

 

 

Missed out on upgrading our linebackers.  Did like WLB Cedric Gray (UNC) but major concern was 57 missed tackles over three years and 19 in 2023 alone.  Wouldn't mind WLB Payton Wilson (NC) or MLB Junior Colson (Michigan).  Am content on this season continuing with Franklin and Speed but looking over upcoming free agents do hope the Colts consider bringing in SLB Zack Baun (Saints).  WLB JD Bertrand (ND) as an UDFA could be a possibility. 

 

The kelly retirement possibility is completely not true, it's a story driven by fans and people speculating. He actually got agitated when it got brought up.

 

 

As for our LB position, I think there is no way we can have Speed and Franklin start this season. When they are both on the field they are just too much of a liability in coverage, which is huge since its a passing league. I don't really think that either are 3 down LBs, franklin is more of a downhill run stopper and same with Speed. I like Harrison if he gets brought back but he's more of a coverage specialist LB for when we know its a pass. I wouldn't be surprised if we grab a linebacker in the 2nd.

[richard pallo]

2 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

The kelly retirement possibility is completely not true, it's a story driven by fans and people speculating. He actually got agitated when it got brought up.

 

 

As for our LB position, I think there is no way we can have Speed and Franklin start this season. When they are both on the field they are just too much of a liability in coverage, which is huge since its a passing league. I don't really think that either are 3 down LBs, franklin is more of a downhill run stopper and same with Speed. I like Harrison if he gets brought back but he's more of a coverage specialist LB for when we know its a pass. I wouldn't be surprised if we grab a linebacker in the 2nd.

Or sign a linebacker in FA.  All options are on the table right now.

[Zoltan]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Or sign a linebacker in FA.  All options are on the table right now.

Yeah, as long as there’s an upgrade at the position. Otherwise the middle of the field is gonna stay wide open

[OhioColt]

2 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Or sign a linebacker in FA.  All options are on the table right now.

 

1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

Yeah, as long as there’s an upgrade at the position. Otherwise the middle of the field is gonna stay wide open

I wouldn't mind adding Josey Jewell (Broncos) in the middle plus add one or more of the following free agents:

 

WLB Tyrel Dodson (Bills)

MLB Bobby Wagner (Seahawks) 

MLB Anthony Walker Jr (Browns)

SLB Zack Baun (Saints)

 

[OhioColt]

2 hours ago, Zoltan said:

 

The kelly retirement possibility is completely not true, it's a story driven by fans and people speculating. He actually got agitated when it got brought up.

 

 

A lot can happen between now and preseason games leading up to the start of the NFL regular season.  Time will tell if Kelly does retire, we cut him to save cap space, he gets traded, or ends up playing.  Obviously, like to see Kelly remain healthy and play for us this season at a high level.  

[Solid84]

10 hours ago, Zoltan said:

 

The kelly retirement possibility is completely not true, it's a story driven by fans and people speculating. He actually got agitated when it got brought up.

 

 

As for our LB position, I think there is no way we can have Speed and Franklin start this season. When they are both on the field they are just too much of a liability in coverage, which is huge since its a passing league. I don't really think that either are 3 down LBs, franklin is more of a downhill run stopper and same with Speed. I like Harrison if he gets brought back but he's more of a coverage specialist LB for when we know its a pass. I wouldn't be surprised if we grab a linebacker in the 2nd.

From Kelly's perspective it may not be true, but he's had 4 (I think?) concussions at this point. It may come down to injuries over his will to play if he keeps getting injured. 

 

Edit: I 100% agree about the LB situation. We need 3 down guys who can cover - Franklin and Speed ain't it.

[richard pallo]

10 hours ago, OhioColt said:

 

I wouldn't mind adding Josey Jewell (Broncos) in the middle plus add one or more of the following free agents:

 

WLB Tyrel Dodson (Bills)

MLB Bobby Wagner (Seahawks) 

MLB Anthony Walker Jr (Browns)

SLB Zack Baun (Saints)

 

I would prefer Patrick Queen of the Ravens actually.  

[OhioColt]

11 hours ago, richard pallo said:

I would prefer Patrick Queen of the Ravens actually.  

Queen would be an excellent addition.  See how cap space figures into the mixture.  Love the idea of adding FS Mckinney in FA but figured be more frugal signing a lower cost option.   Adding both Queen at MLB and WLB Tyrel Dodson would definitely bolster the Colt's defense. 

[NewColtsFan]

On 2/6/2024 at 9:40 PM, stitches said:

Well, Zierlein has posted his first mock and there are some surprises in there.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-falcons-patriots-make-trades-to-land-qbs

 

Notable things for me:

- Drake Maye is NOT the second QB taken - it's Jayden Daniels. Maye drops to 5.

- Pats take MHJ 

- Rome Odunze before Malik Nabers

- Taliese Fuaga OT1, JC Latham OT3 and in top 10

- Terrion Arnold CB1

- JJ McCarthy goes no. 12 to the Broncos

- Byron Murphy in top 15, DT1

- Colts get Brock Bowers at 15:

 

 

- Olu Fashanu drops to 18.

- Darius Robinson and Roman Wilson have made an impression at the senior bowl - they both go in R1. 

- SEVEN OTs go R1!!!

 

 

Your thoughts?

 

 

I don’t mean to be a kill-joy, but my thoughts are that the first mock from all these analysts are much less valuable than the mocks done in April.  
 

We haven’t had the Combine yet. 
We haven’t had the Pro Days yet. 
We haven’t had the private workouts yet. 
 

All that and more will change things dramatically in two months.   All I’m saying is don’t read too much into early mocks.  

[OhioColt]

17 hours ago, richard pallo said:

I would prefer Patrick Queen of the Ravens actually.  

I am shocked that the Ravens overpaid Roquan Smith more than 49ers' Fred Warner.  No way Queen should even be paid close to that much either.  Doable yes and a 3-year 14M APY is reasonable.  Give him the time to prove himself and pay him Warner's money if he can produce like it.  Give me Queen in the middle and Tyrel Dodson at WLB move Speed back to SLB and cut Grant Stuard.   Add me some Xavier McKinney and this team on paper looking scary good with high anticipation of a year behind AR leading the offense. 

[OhioColt]

5 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t mean to be a kill-joy, but my thoughts are that the first mock from all these analysts are much less valuable than the mocks done in April.  
 

We haven’t had the Combine yet. 
We haven’t had the Pro Days yet. 
We haven’t had the private workouts yet. 
 

All that and more will change things dramatically in two months.   All I’m saying is don’t read too much into early mocks.  

Always click bait type thinking every year.  What is hyped and what Clubs actually do is two different things completely.  Take it with a grain of salt as the saying goes.  

[NewColtsFan]

46 minutes ago, OhioColt said:

Always click bait type thinking every year.  What is hyped and what Clubs actually do is two different things completely.  Take it with a grain of salt as the saying goes.  

Yup….  And for the record, I’m a big admirer of Zierlein.   He’s good friends with Ballard and understands how he thinks.  Does as good a job as anyone.

 

But what none of us knows, is how much input Steichen gets this year?   I suspect a fair amount.   
 

Plus a reminder that Ballard and his scouts look at video of every player three times.  The first time about a week ago, after all college all star games including the senior bowl.   The second time after the combine.  The third time after the pro days.  All of this is to say decisions won’t be made for about two months, and things are still very fluid. 

[Gigc]

On 2/8/2024 at 1:30 PM, jskinnz said:

I believe you are setting yourself up for disappointment yet again. 

Ballard has signed big guys to big contracts. It's just mostly been our guys. Quentin Nelson, Shaq (and he would have made the HOF if he didn't get hurt), JT, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan. And he's stretched for big trades, Deforest Buckner (who he also extended with a big contract) and even alas, Carson Wentz.

This year he's got to spend money --- or lose --- big FAs. Pittman, Grover, Kenny Moore...