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AR vs Young vs Stroud vs Levis


csmopar

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3 hours ago, DougDew said:

As far as being fair to Levis, he has an offense that does not run through the QB, but runs through the RB.  Its not really sincere to have their offense slog through 3.5 quarters of Henry being stuffed, keeping the game close...then telling Levis to "go win the game in the last 6 minutes".

 

Its a different bucket of stats than a Stroud or Mahomes who has an offense that uses the QB to attack the field from the opening kickoff.  IMO, we have to watch each QB play to be informed.

 

In the last two games, Levis had almost as many pass attempts as Stroud. In fact, in three games, Levis has thrown an average of 35.6 passes per game while Stroud has thrown an average of 35.33 passes per game in 9 games. 

 

Links:

CJ Stroud stats

Will Levis stats

 

Yeah, if we watch them play, the offenses may look different, but it is not as if Levis is passing only 22 times a game.

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Man, this forum has taken a few twists on this discussion. A few observations:

 

- Will Levis is being given a lot of excuses for bad play that would never be given to our QBs. Which is weird as they are a rival. 
-The farther we get away from Richardson’s last game the more it seems people are souring on him even though he played better than expected. 
- How did this turn into another Ballard complaints discussion and past drafting. I believe there’s a different thread for that. 

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Just now, Zoltan said:

Will Levis is being given a lot of excuses for bad play that would never be given to our QBs. Which is weird as they are a rival. 
-The farther we get away from Richardson’s last game the more it seems people are souring on him even though he played better than expected. 

 

Excellent observation!

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16 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

Man, this forum has taken a few twists on this discussion. A few observations:

 

- Will Levis is being given a lot of excuses for bad play that would never be given to our QBs. Which is weird as they are a rival. 
-The farther we get away from Richardson’s last game the more it seems people are souring on him even though he played better than expected. 
- How did this turn into another Ballard complaints discussion and past drafting. I believe there’s a different thread for that. 

It’s even weirder when he hasn’t played. How do you find faults when he hasn’t played.

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23 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

Man, this forum has taken a few twists on this discussion. A few observations:

 

- Will Levis is being given a lot of excuses for bad play that would never be given to our QBs. Which is weird as they are a rival. 
-The farther we get away from Richardson’s last game the more it seems people are souring on him even though he played better than expected. 
- How did this turn into another Ballard complaints discussion and past drafting. I believe there’s a different thread for that. 

Wanna further blow your mind. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have the nearly exact same stat lines including turnovers in the last 3 games, yet one is GOAT and the other is “broken”. 

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5 hours ago, DougDew said:

 

Who gives AR credit for the two wins?  And what is their basis for that conclusion? 

 

Please don't confuse an opinion made by the judgement of the credentialed class with something that's an actual "fact"'.  Then tell us we don't listen to facts.  We are all allowed to make stand alone judgements about if he deserve the "win" or not (which is a stupid stat anyway because its a team game) and don't need to adopt some groups' definition of a win.  

 

As far as being fair to Levis, he has an offense that does not run through the QB, but runs through the RB.  Its not really sincere to have their offense slog through 3.5 quarters of Henry being stuffed, keeping the game close...then telling Levis to "go win the game in the last 6 minutes".  Its a different bucket of stats than a Stroud or Mahomes who has an offense that uses the QB to attack the field from the opening kickoff.  IMO, we have to watch each QB play to be informed.

Derek Henry ran 11 times Sunday. Levis had 39 pass attempts.  I'm not bagging on Levis performance,  he is a rookie.   However it isn't the run heavy offense you claim it to be

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1 hour ago, csmopar said:

Wanna further blow your mind. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have the nearly exact same stat lines including turnovers in the last 3 games, yet one is GOAT and the other is “broken”. 

 

A 3 game sample space isn't enough to gauge someone's consistency over years. Or is that your actual point (in which case, I agree)? Mahomes' GOAT talk is a bit premature for another 5 years, but his record over 5 years is clearly better than Allen's from taking care of the ball and putting his team in more game winning situations.

 

That is why folks need to hold their horses when it comes to AR. Give him 3 years, given his age and how much starting experience he had in college. He would be the same age as Levis, 3 YEARS later. :) 

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4 hours ago, ColtV said:

That would've been wildly concerning if that's the case. His running could've been the difference in every OSU loss with the exception of Georgia in games he started. 

 

I think it's more likely the fault is with Ryan Day in this scenario. 

 

Maybe I'm missing your point. Stroud isn't running a lot right now. His high is 20 yards, and he has 86 yards total, in 9 games. Richardson had 136 yards, and he only played two full games. Stroud also barely lost any games in college, running or not. 

 

The question everyone seemed to have was whether he could move well enough to handle pressure in in the NFL. I think it was on his college tape, and he's doing well with it as a pro. I really think people over thought it a little with Stroud, especially comparing him to some of the more athletically impressive prospects. 

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2 hours ago, csmopar said:

Wanna further blow your mind. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have the nearly exact same stat lines including turnovers in the last 3 games, yet one is GOAT and the other is “broken”. 

 

I don't think Josh Allen is broken, but he has some of the most untimely turnovers, and they come in bunches. 

 

And of course, the Chiefs are winning and the Bills aren't, which is all anyone pays any attention to when discussing QB play anymore. 

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7 hours ago, DougDew said:

 

Who gives AR credit for the two wins?  And what is their basis for that conclusion? 

 

Please don't confuse an opinion made by the judgement of the credentialed class with something that's an actual "fact"'.  Then tell us we don't listen to facts.  We are all allowed to make stand alone judgements about if he deserve the "win" or not (which is a stupid stat anyway because its a team game) and don't need to adopt some groups' definition of a win.  

 

As far as being fair to Levis, he has an offense that does not run through the QB, but runs through the RB.  Its not really sincere to have their offense slog through 3.5 quarters of Henry being stuffed, keeping the game close...then telling Levis to "go win the game in the last 6 minutes".  Its a different bucket of stats than a Stroud or Mahomes who has an offense that uses the QB to attack the field from the opening kickoff.  IMO, we have to watch each QB play to be informed.

It is an NFL rule that has been around since football started. Go look at pro football reference when looking up a QBs stats. It shows their W/L record. The rule is, any QB that starts a game will get credit for a win or loss. If you don't like the rule, call Goodell up and get it changed. I  stated a fact as usual and you just piled on me again not knowing a rule that has been around when my grandmother was born. SMH. 

 

Not only that we were winning both games when left. It wasn't like he was behind and got bailed out.

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6 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

A 3 game sample space isn't enough to gauge someone's consistency over years. Or is that your actual point (in which case, I agree)? Mahomes' GOAT talk is a bit premature for another 5 years, but his record over 5 years is clearly better than Allen's from taking care of the ball and putting his team in more game winning situations.

 

That is why folks need to hold their horses when it comes to AR. Give him 3 years, given his age and how much starting experience he had in college. He would be the same age as Levis, 3 YEARS later. :) 

Yes that is my point in that post.

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Stroud moved just fine. I never understood that conversation at all.  Somehow the conversation here and in Colts social media evolved to a point where a rushing QB is the only type of QB you can draft - not mobile, rushing.  It was a little bizarre.

 

The main question for me was, given the fact he seemingly had receivers running with 10 yards of separation on every play, could he do the same thing at the pro level?  Well, apparently he can.  There's also this weird thing that happens on occasion where a player just looks better as a pro than he did in college.  Stroud might be one of those players.

 

You certainly could have had Stroud. Carolina was open for business, and the price would have been less than they paid the Bears.  Had he ended up in Seattle, it might not be as big of a regret. Unfortunately for us, he landed in the division.  Honeslty, the guy might end up being the best QB in the league.

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12 hours ago, NFLfan said:

 

In the last two games, Levis had almost as many pass attempts as Stroud. In fact, in three games, Levis has thrown an average of 35.6 passes per game while Stroud has thrown an average of 35.33 passes per game in 9 games. 

 

Links:

CJ Stroud stats

Will Levis stats

 

Yeah, if we watch them play, the offenses may look different, but it is not as if Levis is passing only 22 times a game.

Yes.  And Frank threw 27 passes in a row against TB one year too.  But that doesn't mean the offense didn't run through JT that year.   It just means that their primary offense gets stuffed by TB, so they resort to doing something they don't really want to do and don't have the staff to do.  OTOH, Stroud and other passing-based offenses have high passing attempts as an attacking philosophy, not as a backup strategy when their run-up-the-gut attacks fail. 

 

Levis has been named the starter for the rest of the year....and I assume that means next year too.  It will be interesting to see what moves TEN makes this offseason to see if they provide Levis with assets or if they still are going to use the QB as a complement to their running game.  I think understanding these deep rooted differences helps to understand what the stats mean.

 

And then there is the element with receiver talent, oline talent, etc that make direct comparison of stats often problematic.

 

Its not surprising to me that Stroud would be outperforming Levis at this point.  Stroud was named the starter over the summer and being immersed with the starters every practice, Levis sat behind Tannehill and Malik Willis and wasn't even activated for the first 6 games, IIRC. 

 

But I don't think Levis was as good of a Qb as Stroud in college or as a pro now. (what happens in the future, who knows)  And Stroud was the 2nd pick in the draft and Levis a second rounder, so comparing stats straight up is going also going to lean towards confirming what we already think, IMO.

 

The original thread was about the three Qbs that were drafted close together.  I'm somebody who believes that draft position tends to reflect inherent talent, so I would expect Levis to always be behind the other three.  What would be newsworthy is if one of the three falls behind Levis......or even Aiden O'Connell. LOL. 

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10 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

Derek Henry ran 11 times Sunday. Levis had 39 pass attempts.  I'm not bagging on Levis performance,  he is a rookie.   However it isn't the run heavy offense you claim it to be

See my post above.  I knew that Levis threw it alot, but that doesn't mean its what TEN wants to do.   You know that any team can't just switch offensives styles week to week or even mid season.

 

We'll see if TEN transforms their offense going forward.  They probably will if they think Levis is the guy.

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10 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It is an NFL rule that has been around since football started. Go look at pro football reference when looking up a QBs stats. It shows their W/L record. The rule is, any QB that starts a game will get credit for a win or loss. If you don't like the rule, call Goodell up and get it changed. I  stated a fact as usual and you just piled on me again not knowing a rule that has been around when my grandmother was born. SMH. 

 

Not only that we were winning both games when left. It wasn't like he was behind and got bailed out.

Its seems like the NFL is trying to make a knock off of the pitcher stats in baseball. 

 

Stats tell a more accurate story in baseball because baseball is really a collection of 9 players making a play on the ball.  That's what they do, hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball....they don't have individual battles with the opponent.   A pitcher generally has a one on one battle with the batter (not withstanding errors made by his defense that extends his time on the mound) and that's why the W/L record for a pitcher is relevant.  (other players have error stats, throwing out baserunners, hitting pct, slugging ptc. etc which is more about what they do with the ball)

 

FB is all about many players battling some other player....not the ball.   We all know that in FB, if one player loses his battle with another player, it can have a huge impact on the success the QB has.  Not to mention the guy on the sidelines influencing it by calling dozens of different (bad or good?) plays during the game.  A pitcher decides on his own to throw any one of about 4 pitches after assessing the game situation on his own.  He is relatively responsible for his own W/L record.   A QB hardly is, IMO. 

 

Sorry, even though the football commissioner has the credentials to form the stat, I don't see it meaning much, IMO.

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18 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Its seems like the NFL is trying to make a knock off of the pitcher stats in baseball. 

 

Stats tell a more accurate story in baseball because baseball is really a collection of 9 players making a play on the ball.  That's what they do, hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball....they don't have individual battles with the opponent.   A pitcher generally has a one on one battle with the batter (not withstanding errors made by his defense that extends his time on the mound) and that's why the W/L record for a pitcher is relevant.  (other players have error stats, throwing out baserunners, hitting pct, slugging ptc. etc which is more about what they do with the ball)

 

FB is all about many players battling some other player....not the ball.   We all know that in FB, if one player loses his battle with another player, it can have a huge impact on the success the QB has.  Not to mention the guy on the sidelines influencing it by calling dozens of different (bad or good?) plays during the game.  A pitcher decides on his own to throw any one of about 4 pitches after assessing the game situation on his own.  He is relatively responsible for his own W/L record.   A QB hardly is, IMO. 

 

Sorry, even though the football commissioner has the credentials to form the stat, I don't see it meaning much, IMO.

Not saying it is a fair stat but it is a factual stat and has been forever. So, when I said AR is 2-2 as a starter, I stated a fact going by NFL rules. Also, when he left with injury we were ahead in both games. I think had we lost after he left, it would not have been fair to give him the loss but by rule, had we lost to Houston and Tennessee he would be 0-4. 

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42 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Not saying it is a fair stat but it is a factual stat and has been forever. So, when I said AR is 2-2 as a starter, I stated a fact going by NFL rules. Also, when he left with injury we were ahead in both games. I think had we lost after he left, it would not have been fair to give him the loss but by rule, had we lost to Houston and Tennessee he would be 0-4. 

I get that, and I clarified it before by saying that it is a "fact" created out of someone's judgement/definition.  That kind of fact often gets used just like more absolute facts...... like a player got tackled or a player ran for three yards, etc...when there is much less absoluteness built into it.   

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6 hours ago, DougDew said:

See my post above.  I knew that Levis threw it alot, but that doesn't mean its what TEN wants to do.   You know that any team can't just switch offensives styles week to week or even mid season.

 

Levis throws as many times a game as Stroud does. Those are the facts. And, having someone like Henry as a running threat should only enhance, not hurt, a QB's play.

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16 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Maybe I'm missing your point. Stroud isn't running a lot right now. His high is 20 yards, and he has 86 yards total, in 9 games. Richardson had 136 yards, and he only played two full games. Stroud also barely lost any games in college, running or not. 

 

The question everyone seemed to have was whether he could move well enough to handle pressure in in the NFL. I think it was on his college tape, and he's doing well with it as a pro. I really think people over thought it a little with Stroud, especially comparing him to some of the more athletically impressive prospects. 

No my concern was his lack of running in college and did that apply to a general lack of mobility in the pro game. Aside from the Georgia game he rarely scrambled up field when plays broke down or ran on read option plays(which OSU runs a TON of). 

 

I think his overall mobility in his NFL game is extremely impressive especially his throws while on the move. In the game vs the Bengals it was like looking at a completely different qb from the year before. 

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1 hour ago, NFLfan said:

 

Levis throws as many times a game as Stroud does. Those are the facts. And, having someone like Henry as a running threat should only enhance, not hurt, a QB's play.

I don't dispute the NUMBER of times Levis threw the ball against a common opponent.  I bought up Stroud as a comparison of the different offensive styles that influence raw statistics between two QBs, despite how many times they throw the ball in any one game against similar opponents. 

 

Building an offense to serve Henry's success, then Henry being unsuccessful, is actually detrimental to a QBs success.  Just like JT getting stuffed made Wentz and Ryan suck more.  They did better when JT was busting off runs.

 

I don't know why you sound argumentative.  Are you saying the Levis is not as good of QB than Stroud?  I agree.  A direct comparison between Levis and Stroud was never my point, but you don't seem to get that.  

 

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8 minutes ago, ColtV said:

No my concern was his lack of running in college and did that apply to a general lack of mobility in the pro game. Aside from the Georgia game he rarely scrambled up field when plays broke down or ran on read option plays(which OSU runs a TON of). 

 

I think his overall mobility in his NFL game is extremely impressive especially his throws while on the move. In the game vs the Bengals it was like looking at a completely different qb from the year before. 

 

Got it. I didn't have problems with his mobility in college. I actually think the Georgia game was overused as an example of his mobility; it was good to see him make some throws on the move, but I wasn't impressed by his scrambling ability in that game. At least, not as much as everyone else. What Stroud did against the Bengals can all be found in his OSU tape. You probably have to look carefully to find something that looks like the TD run, especially since Stroud had no TD runs in 2021 or 2022, but he did have a few good scrambles here and there.

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I don't mind the point of this thread. Tracking these rookie QBs is actually an interesting project to me. Rookies in general. Everyone has their pre-draft favorites along with players they don't like, but a running accounting of how drafted players are performing is a good thing.

 

That said, a weekly back and forth every time a rookie QB plays is probably going to be like riding a see-saw. Making proclamations about who does what better or worse, which team got it right vs which team messed up, etc., seems like a waste.

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12 minutes ago, Superman said:

I don't mind the point of this thread. Tracking these rookie QBs is actually an interesting project to me. Rookies in general. Everyone has their pre-draft favorites along with players they don't like, but a running accounting of how drafted players are performing is a good thing.

 

That said, a weekly back and forth every time a rookie QB plays is probably going to be like riding a see-saw. Making proclamations about who does what better or worse, which team got it right vs which team messed up, etc., seems like a waste.

Totally agree.   Other than opining when one plays well or not, there is no critical mass of evidence to make a definitive opinion about any of them at this point.

 

Especially since the Colts QB's performance can't really even be discussed further until next September,  and we're left talking about the QBs of other teams..  I'd be surprised if many fans regularly watch the games of the other QBs very closely.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

I don't dispute the NUMBER of times Levis threw the ball against a common opponent.  I bought up Stroud as a comparison of the different offensive styles that influence raw statistics between two QBs, despite how many times they throw the ball in any one game against similar opponents. 

 

Building an offense to serve Henry's success, then Henry being unsuccessful, is actually detrimental to a QBs success.  Just like JT getting stuffed made Wentz and Ryan suck more.  They did better when JT was busting off runs.

 

I don't know why you sound argumentative.  Are you saying the Levis is not as good of QB than Stroud?  I agree.  A direct comparison between Levis and Stroud was never my point, but you don't seem to get that.  

 

 

Having Henry should help a QB. JMO.

 

Regarding your perception that I am being argumentative, that is probably because I am challenging some of what you are posting and not passively accepting them.

 

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1 hour ago, NFLfan said:

 

Having Henry should help a QB. JMO.

 

Regarding your perception that I am being argumentative, that is probably because I am challenging some of what you are posting and not passively accepting them.

 

No, its not my perception,  You were being argumentative because you were accusing me of not accepting your facts (stats) when I did know them but was merely pointing out that they mean virtually nothing relative to the point I was making.   

 

Stroud is a better QB than Levis.  That's not being disputed.

 

Its like saying Levis didn't play well against TB because Aaron Rogers and the GB offense had better stats with the same number of throws.  That would be true, he didn't put up the same stats, so what? 

 

I'm saying that he didn't play unexpectedly considering what TEN typically asks its QB to do.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

No, its not my perception,  You were being argumentative because you were accusing me of not accepting your facts (stats) when I did know them but was merely pointing out that they mean virtually nothing relative to the point I was making.   

 

Stroud is a better QB than Levis.  That's not being disputed.

 

Its like saying Levis didn't play well against TB because Aaron Rogers and the GB offense had better stats with the same number of throws.  That would be true, he didn't put up the same stats, so what? 

 

I'm saying that he didn't play unexpectedly considering what TEN typically asks its QB to do.

 

 

 

 

 

Don't they ask the qb to do what every team does?  Win games?

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4 hours ago, DougDew said:

You were being argumentative because you were accusing me of not accepting your facts (stats) when I did know them but was merely pointing out that they mean virtually nothing relative to the point I was makin

 

Nope. I did not "accuse" you of anything. Just like you don't accept the facts I presented, I do not accept yours.

 

Anyway, I am ending this here.

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17 hours ago, DougDew said:

See my post above.  I knew that Levis threw it alot, but that doesn't mean its what TEN wants to do.   You know that any team can't just switch offensives styles week to week or even mid season.

 

We'll see if TEN transforms their offense going forward.  They probably will if they think Levis is the guy.

I think we all need to hope the Titans owner wants to keep Vrabel long term, as I think he has his clear deficiencies as a HC. In the last year he has shown much arrogance and stubbornness when it comes to his coaching staff and he even has a big say in personnel which is never a good thing when his track record on the Titans acquiring OL players as of late is no good. 

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8 hours ago, NFLfan said:

 

Nope. I did not "accuse" you of anything. Just like you don't accept the facts I presented, I do not accept yours.

 

Anyway, I am ending this here.

LOL.  Its now the third time you've accused me of not accepting your facts.   I can see this convo is filled with stubbornness, or it just plain can't push though a blind spot.  

 

 

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6 hours ago, BProland85 said:

I think we all need to hope the Titans owner wants to keep Vrabel long term, as I think he has his clear deficiencies as a HC. In the last year he has shown much arrogance and stubbornness when it comes to his coaching staff and he even has a big say in personnel which is never a good thing when his track record on the Titans acquiring OL players as of late is no good. 

You follow them more closely than I do.  I think he helped develop the run-first...pass when you have too...strong defense team that got them success for these years.  Can he coach a different kind of team?  I think he's a quality guy that should be able to make that pivot.  Naming Levis the starter indicates to me that he thinks he needs to have a more dynamic offense.  Not that Levis can do it, but its a different direction than a game-managing...ish QB like Tannehill.

 

Do you think they bring Tannehill back?  Do you think they keep Henry?

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2 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

And that ladies and gents is why we have so many rookies all starting... 

I thought only running QB's got injured, Homer better check his notes because there were about at least 7 or 8 people that focused and pushed their narrative on that after AR got injured??chuckling homer simpson GIF-over half those guys are pure pocket passers. Am I missing something? I can't wait to hear the naysayers on this one haha 

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3 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

That’s gotta be a record? I don’t remember so many QBs being injured throughout a season before? 

I'll be curious to see how it all effects TV ratings and viewership. Will the general public (outside of the team diehards) continue to spend time watching mediocre games? 

 

Obviously I'll still watch the Colts and Bengals because I'm a masochist... But I could see the average joe losing interest. 

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14 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

That’s gotta be a record? I don’t remember so many QBs being injured throughout a season before? 

 

Yes. I have never seen this amount of uncertainty that a QB that started the game won't end the game.

 

Even pocket passers like Joe Burrow, Stafford and Kirk Cousins aren't spared though with Burrow, it seems not due to hits he received. The majority of them do run outside the pocket much more than years past, which has to have a correlation with injury risk. Even Mahomes wised up to start learning to beat teams from the pocket more. Lamar was nursing his ankle yesterday too. That is probably the Ravens' No.1 concern.

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1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Yes. I have never seen this amount of uncertainty that a QB that started the game won't end the game.

 

Even pocket passers like Joe Burrow, Stafford and Kirk Cousins aren't spared. 

Your boy Mahomes is still out there. And he knows how to avoid getting injured. 

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

You follow them more closely than I do.  I think he helped develop the run-first...pass when you have too...strong defense team that got them success for these years.  Can he coach a different kind of team?  I think he's a quality guy that should be able to make that pivot.  Naming Levis the starter indicates to me that he thinks he needs to have a more dynamic offense.  Not that Levis can do it, but its a different direction than a game-managing...ish QB like Tannehill.

 

Do you think they bring Tannehill back?  Do you think they keep Henry?

They’ll likely let Tannehill walk unless he’s willing to come back on the cheap as a backup. As for Henry I could see them resign him on a 2 year deal if he doesn’t get many takers on the market in FA. 

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