Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Correct. He doesn't think anybody is worth trading up for or taking any risks on and that's why we are a.500 or worse team and will always be as long as he is the GM.

 

Except for the times he's traded up or taken risks, right?

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, Superman said:

Richardson's low completion percentage is not entirely explained by saying he has an issue with accuracy. There are several factors that contribute to his completion percentage.

 

His accuracy issues are plain to see in the games, and when he misses, he misses big. Some of it is inconsistent mechanics, some of it is anticipation and timing, and I think some of it is touch (which also affects completion percentage; some of his short/intermediate incompletions are on target, but lacking touch). To me, there are times where he misses so badly that I don't know what the issue is, it's almost like he decided to throw it away. And there are times when I think he looks fine mechanically, and he still misses (that's probably where timing/anticipation comes into play). 

 

It's fair to say that if he were more accurate, his completion percentage would be higher. But it's also fair to say that his receivers dropped a lot of balls, the schemes were head scratching, and he got pressured a lot. You could probably adjust the drop percentage to an average level, and give him a credit for scheme/pressure, and then come up with an adjusted completion percentage in the low 60s. And we'd still have to figure out what's up with the wild misses. Which is why it doesn't make sense to scout the stat sheet. 

I think the distribution of the areas of the field he attacks adds to this too. He targets the short area at the lowest rate of any QB prospect in recent years. And he targets the intermediate-to-long range at one of the highest clips of any QB. Even if you are accurate, long throws naturally have lower completion%. The PFF grade is perfect illustration for that - 93 PFF passing grade on throws over 20 yards, while the completion% is only 41%. But at the same time... his yards per attempt on those is 15 freaking yards! I would take that any day of the week! 

 

But I agree... there are multiple issues and reasons for his low completion %. I do NOT like using his receivers' drops as an excuse. Every group of receivers would drop passes. Some more than others but the %s are actually kind of similar with some exceptions... Levis didn't have great receivers either. This is something that both Richardson and Levis have in common... their skill players were pretty underwhelming. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Except for the times he's traded up or taken risks, right?

Buckner was the only swing for the fence move. Not bad for 6 years!

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

I think the distribution of the areas of the field he attacks adds to this too. He targets the short area at the lowest rate of any QB prospect in recent years. And he targets the intermediate-to-long range at one of the highest clips of any QB. Even if you are accurate, long throws naturally have lower completion%. The PFF grade is perfect illustration for that - 93 PFF passing grade on throws over 20 yards, while the completion% is only 41%. But at the same time... his yards per attempt on those is 15 freaking yards! I would take that any day of the week! 

 

But I agree... there are multiple issues and reasons for his low completion %. I do NOT like using his receivers' drops as an excuse. Every group of receivers would drop passes. Some more than others but the %s are actually kind of similar with some exceptions... Levis didn't have great receivers either. 

 

Agreed on all of this. I think Levis and Richardson had the highest drop rates and pressure rates of the top five prospects, right? So they would benefit the most from normalizing those numbers. Stroud would probably be hurt by that adjustment... 

 

I don't intend to make it an excuse. Both Levis and Richardson could improve with touch. But if we're just going to talk about completion percentage, then the drops need to be accounted for.

[hoosierhawk]

9 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Correct. He doesn't think anybody is worth trading up for or taking any risks on and that's why we are a.500 or worse team and will always be as long as he is the GM.

My word, did Ballard leave you off his Christmas list? Your distain for him gets very old. Buckner takes exception to your comment.

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Agreed on all of this. I think Levis and Richardson had the highest drop rates and pressure rates of the top five prospects, right? So they would benefit the most from normalizing those numbers. Stroud would probably be hurt by that adjustment... 

Yep. Young actually was pressured a lot too... but he was responsible for a lot of those pressures himself. The biggest outlier of all of them is Stroud. He was pressured in just about 20% of his drop backs while the other 3 were in the 35-40% range if I remember correctly. This is some bat% crazy difference in circumstances. Add the level of weapons Stroud was throwing to vs Levis' and Richardson's and to some degree Young and I'm not sure if you can say they were even playing the same sport... 

 

That's my biggest worry with Stroud. He had about as perfect of a situation as you can dream for as a QB. In the NFL he will likely NEVER have that level of protection and that level of weapons(especially compared to the level of competition)... and he actually was not great when things were not perfect for him(i.e. when he was pressured or when his receivers didn't win quick)... 

 

8 minutes ago, Superman said:

I don't intend to make it an excuse. Both Levis and Richardson could improve with touch. But if we're just going to talk about completion percentage, then the drops need to be accounted for.

True. Levis and RIchardson had a lot of dropped passes... Richardson also had more throwaways than any of the QBs in the draft too(this adds to the low completion%)... 

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

True. Levis and RIchardson had a lot of dropped passes... Richardson also had more throwaways than any of the QBs in the draft too(this adds to the low completion%)... 

 

Are we sure those are all throwaways??  

[stitches]

Just now, Superman said:

 

Are we sure those are all throwaways??  

Lets hope  

[BProland85]

22 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

 

Gotta do homework on the top 2 QBs as you never know what will happen draft day. Carolina or Houston could take Richardson. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

8 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Gotta do homework on the top 2 QBs as you never know what will happen draft day. Carolina or Houston could take Richardson. 

Houston could take Levis or Richardson too.

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

Are we sure those are all throwaways??  

I guess... looking at his stats, here's how much he could improve his completion % if we normalize a bit his drops/throwaways/accuracy on short passes:

 

- I just checked the stats for most other SEC teams, the drop rate is between 8-10 and Richardson's was 12%. Lets assume 9 is about normal. So add 3% to his completion %

- throwaways - wide variety of different stats for SEC teams... average seems to be about 9. Richardson had 22. If you remove those extra 13 attempts, this adds about 2.2% more. 

- above I made a crude calculation that if you only increase his completion on short passes from 58% to 75%(averagish for most QBs?) this would add about 5% to his overall completion%. 

 

So... what's that? 53.8+10.2 64% ... This seems like a low-hanging fruit improvements that can be made. And of course the biggest quesiton here is his completion on short passes. Can you get him to about average-ish level on those?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

How many balls did he throw that were caught and shouldn’t of been? To me some of it washes out.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

So... what's that? 53.8+10.2 64% ... This seems like a low-hanging fruit improvements that can be made. And of course the biggest quesiton here is his completion on short passes. Can you get him to about average-ish level on those?

 

I think this is scheme and anticipation. My thinking based on my viewing is that a lot of his short attempts are under duress. If you get him to his check downs more quickly, or scheme quick throws, I think he'd be okay. 

 

The bigger question is what he does under pressure, as it is with most QB prospects.

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think this is scheme and anticipation. My thinking based on my viewing is that a lot of his short attempts are under duress. If you get him to his check downs more quickly, or scheme quick throws, I think he'd be okay. 

 

The bigger question is what he does under pressure, as it is with most QB prospects.

True, most QB prospects are not good under pressure... 

 

OK, here's a question - if it were you, would you encourage him to run more under pressure rather than looking for the pass? Because I LOVE that he actually is looking for the pass... but he's not great passing under pressure so I kind of would rather him tuck it and run a bit more at least in the beginning... but I really don't want to curb his enthusiasm to keep reading the defense and to try to make a pass. I think if he's going to maximize his potential he will need to do that sometime in the future... 

[csmopar]

46 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Buckner was the only swing for the fence move. Not bad for 6 years!

Ummm. 
 

Wentz- 2 1sts given

Ryan- luckily only a 3rd

 

those two alone disprove your “only swing for the fences” theory. Yeah, he missed on both those swings, but you can’t cherry pick just to prove your dislike of Ballard. 

[Bleeds Blue]

2 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Ummm. 
 

Wentz- 2 1sts given

Ryan- luckily only a 3rd

 

those two alone disprove your “only swing for the fences” theory. Yeah, he missed on both those swings, but you can’t cherry pick just to prove your dislike of Ballard. 

Colts gave up a first and a third for Wentz, not two firsts 

[jvan1973]

1 hour ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

Correct. He doesn't think anybody is worth trading up for or taking any risks on and that's why we are a.500 or worse team and will always be as long as he is the GM.

Which qb is worth trading up for?

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

True, most QB prospects are not good under pressure... 

 

OK, here's a question - if it were you, would you encourage him to run more under pressure rather than looking for the pass? 

 

First thing I'd do is try to mitigate the pressure with play calling. Next is help him to be decisive under pressure, no matter what the decision is. Have a plan, get through his reads, and then perform. He has the playmaker gene, I'd want him to use it. And especially early in his development, he should use his legs when he has the opportunity to do so, as long as he protects himself to a reasonable degree. 

 

But I really want him to develop as a passer so that he can get to his check downs quickly, and set himself up to throw accurately. That tends to take some time, and some guys never get there.

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Which qb is worth trading up for?

 

Whichever one Ballard doesn't trade up for, obviously.

[stitches]

@Superman weren't you in California? You should find out where they are working and go spy on the workouts  Any other potential spies in Cali? 

[cdgacoltsfan]

13 minutes ago, Bleeds Blue said:

Colts gave up a first and a third for Wentz, not two firsts 

And Irsay and Ballard admit they had no plan at QB but " luckily" Ryan became available.

[cdgacoltsfan]

14 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Which qb is worth trading up for?

A few weeks ago..... Stroud or Young...but we were still doing our " homework"

[richard pallo]

The best news I read today was that two teams ,the Titans and Raiders ,are looking into trading up to the 3rd pick.  That tells me they are eyeing AR because they both have starting quarterbacks on their rosters which is the perfect situation for him.  I’m hoping one of them makes the move.  That will leave Levis and Anderson at our doorstep and I would be very happy with either choice.  AR is the riskiest pick of the top four in my mind so I’m hoping we pass on him.

[BProland85]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

The best news I read today was that two teams ,the Titans and Raiders ,are looking into trading up to the 3rd pick.  That tells me they are eyeing AR because they both have starting quarterbacks on their rosters which is the perfect situation for him.  I’m hoping one of them makes the move.  That will leave Levis and Anderson at our doorstep and I would be very happy with either choice.  AR is the riskiest pick of the top four in my mind so I’m hoping we pass on him.

I would be happy with Anderson after a slight trade down, but not Levis. I think Levis will bust. I really hope what happens is either Carolina or Houston takes either Richardson or Levis, and one of Young or Stroud is available to Indy at 4. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Kind of interesting that it seems colts went to California to work out young and stroud but seems Levis and Richardson may be coming to the facility. A least that’s what Zach hicks just said on his podcast.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Hicks says Brown  was in Richardsons ear his entire pro day according to his source that was there.

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Kind of interesting that it seems colts went to California to work out young and stroud but seems Levis and Richardson may be coming to the facility. A least that’s what Zach hicks just said on his podcast.

Workouts have to be either at the school of the prospect or in their home town. You cannot work them out at your facility. 

Levis and RIchardson (and the other two?) are coming in for top 30 visits to Colts facility. You cannot work them out on a top 30 visit. 

 

BTW the Colts did a private workout with Richardson too, before the combine. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Zach hicks days colts have already talked about what a trade with cardinals will look like. He said cardinals are trying to drive price up and Indy is trying to drive price down. Says both teams want to make a deal so we will get leaks from both sides.

[Superman]

20 minutes ago, stitches said:

@Superman weren't you in California? You should find out where they are working and go spy on the workouts  Any other potential spies in Cali? 

 

I am, I'd go recon but I can't find my binoculars...

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 minutes ago, stitches said:

Workouts have to be either at the school of the prospect or in their home town. You cannot work them out at your facility. 

Levis and RIchardson (and the other two?) are coming in for top 30 visits to Colts facility. You cannot work them out on a top 30 visit. 

 

BTW the Colts did a private workout with Richardson too, before the combine. 

So you can’t work  them out when you bring them  in for a top 30 visit?

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

So you can’t work  them out when you bring them  in for a top 30 visit?

No, no onfield work. You can talk to them, interview them, wine them and dine them, show them around the facility, do some medical tests, let your coaches talk to them, review film with them... do some whiteboard work... but no workout. 

[hoosierhawk]

50 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

How many balls did he throw that were caught and shouldn’t of been? To me some of it washes out.

Then you have to factor in the same thing for all the QBs and I will guarantee you with the outstanding receivers Stroud had he would have had a lot more than the other 3 especially Levis and Richardson who had a well inferior  group of receivers.

[stitches]

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I am, I'd go recon but I can't find my binoculars...

 

Ask Bill for his... I bet he has some spares... 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, hoosierhawk said:

Then you have to factor in the same thing for all the QBs and I will guarantee you with the outstanding receivers Stroud had he would have had a lot more than the other 3 especially Levis and Richardson who had a well inferior  group of receivers.

Stroud has really good ball placement though. He doesn’t have to many balls off target.

Hicks says Cardinals and Colts are playing a game of chicken right now. Lol

[hoosierhawk]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Stroud has really good ball placement though. He doesn’t have to many balls off target.

No QB is perfect. His receivers I am certain had some unbelievable catches.

[Stephen]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Stroud has really good ball placement though. He doesn’t have to many balls off target.

Hicks says Cardinals and Colts are playing a game of chicken right now. Lol

Id sit at 4 and if cardinals trade the pick ill take anderson

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Stephen said:

Id sit at 4 and if cardinals trade the pick ill take anderson

Then call them and be like... "so... we hear you like Anderson. Next year's 1st and you can have him... "