Playoff Predictor/Simulator (538): Colts #11 in AFC, and 38% of chance of playoffs

[TaylorStillTruckedYou]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Also a factor, that a lot don't consider, is that a ton of our points are points off turnovers. I thought they said 100+ during the game, but didn't catch the exact figure. So if we're not so lucky with turnovers vs AZ or NE, we lose roughly 25% of our points. 

No. AZ has a slightly higher PPG avg. 

NE is right behind us

Yea that was a surprise stat to me today.  I didn't know we were number 1 across the board in forced turnovers.  That will be an important stat in any of those games

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, TaylorStillTruckedYou said:

Yea that was a surprise stat to me today.  I didn't know we were number 1 across the board in forced turnovers.  That will be an important stat in any of those games

Do you recall the number of points they said?

I was streaming so couldn't really rewind. 

[TaylorStillTruckedYou]

4 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I actually like the KC match up for the Colts.  The Colts defense is built to do exactly what’s been giving MaHomes fits.  Don’t give up the big play and make him drive the down the field the long way.  At times he’s shown to get inpatient with this and still try to force it deep when it’s covered.  That’s when the secondary has to take the ball away.  

That may be the one game I actually would like our secondary to play 10 yards off lol.  I think also, our ground game can control the game if we come ready to play

[TaylorStillTruckedYou]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Do you recall the number of points they said?

I was streaming so couldn't really rewind. 

I cannot recall the points.  I was so focused on how many categories we were 1st in.  Unfortunately I also streamed, so I couldn't rewind

[coltsfan_canada]

So next 2 games are against TOP AFC n NFC teams what a tough one whole year I heard colts has one of the easiest schedule yet it seems like tough every week.

[chad72]

7 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

I actually like the KC match up for the Colts.  The Colts defense is built to do exactly what’s been giving MaHomes fits.  Don’t give up the big play and make him drive the down the field the long way.  At times he’s shown to get inpatient with this and still try to force it deep when it’s covered.  That’s when the secondary has to take the ball away.  

KC D is not the KC D you remember. They’re stifling passing games and you’d have to be patient with the run even if you’re a score behind.

 

On defense, from Dan Arnold to Rob Gronkowski to <insert any TE>, we just don’t do a good job covering TEs, so Kelce is a bad matchup for us. It’s not as great a matchup as the Chargers are, IMO, with our rush attack.

[buccolts]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Do you recall the number of points they said?

I was streaming so couldn't really rewind. 

I do believe the number was 107

[Colts1324]

11 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

Vikings may be without Thielan against Steelers.

 

 

We really need the Vikings to beat the Steelers. The Steelers are the sleeper team to ruin our playoff chances after a huge help from Harbaugh last night

[Moosejawcolt]

16 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 NO!

 But i see a 6-3 team that is getting a little better each week.

 Yes our D has to play better. Willis DID make a difference today BTW.

 And Wentz has to think faster throw better to do it. lol

  So, when we Beat NE, THEN we can talk about it.  GO COLTS!

Of course Willis made an impact as the Texans r horrible on offense. However when this D goes up against a play off caliber offence,  who on D has been a game changer? I'm waiting and back it up game film.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Titans getting some much needed help.

 

 

[Superman]

13 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Do you recall the number of points they said?

I was streaming so couldn't really rewind. 

 

13 hours ago, TaylorStillTruckedYou said:

I cannot recall the points.  I was so focused on how many categories we were 1st in.  Unfortunately I also streamed, so I couldn't rewind

 

I cut the cord for a about a year and a half, and replaced most of my programming with streaming. Ultimately, the deciding factor for me was the ability to record, pause, fast forward, rewind, etc., with a regular DVR. Especially sports.

 

Now, Sunday Ticket is negotiating with a bunch of streamers, and it's making me nervous. 

[EastStreet]

4 hours ago, buccolts said:

I do believe the number was 107

 

Thanks!!

So 101 of 371 or 27% are points off turnovers. 

Probably a little more given that 101 was pre-Houston, and the 371 is post Houston (and we had some turnovers).

[EastStreet]

46 minutes ago, Superman said:

I cut the cord for a about a year and a half, and replaced most of my programming with streaming. Ultimately, the deciding factor for me was the ability to record, pause, fast forward, rewind, etc., with a regular DVR. Especially sports.

 

Now, Sunday Ticket is negotiating with a bunch of streamers, and it's making me nervous. 

I still have the Xfinity mega package, but have a lot of the streaming stuff too. The DVR functionality has always been a teetering factor, and haven't researched lately. I know Xfinity has a stream app now though. I haven't played around with much, but have it on my Firesticks. But I do know most of the major stream services have been working on the improving in that area.

 

Just a matter of time before it's all streaming IMO. And I think you'll see 5G play a major role in that in the next 5-10 years. I think most neighborhoods will have 5G antennas in the near future, and cable companies will beam straight to dongles or smart TVs. 

[Superman]

33 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Thanks!!

So 101 of 371 or 27% are points off turnovers. 

Probably a little more given that 101 was pre-Houston, and the 371 is post Houston (and we had some turnovers).

 

Defensive/STs scores is one thing. Points off turnovers needs to be washed more carefully. There's an advantage for the offense if you get the ball in favorable field position, but other than that, it's just another possession. We've had several turnovers deep in our own territory. 

 

We picked off Brady at our own 10, and took a fumble at our own 34. These are regular possessions. Obviously some turnovers yield great field position, combined with sudden change, and the offense has a clear advantage. That's not always the case, though.

[Fluke_33]

40 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Thanks!!

So 101 of 371 or 27% are points off turnovers. 

Probably a little more given that 101 was pre-Houston, and the 371 is post Houston (and we had some turnovers).

Is points off turnovers a very important stat?  if they don't turn it over, and score instead of turning it over, they will be giving the ball back to our offense by kicking off anyway and we will either be scoring or not.  Does it matter how we got the chance?

 

I feel like I may be missing something.  (Unless you mean points by the defense like a pick 6 or something.)

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I know a lot of people will disagree with this but I truly feel if Wentz and the oline had not been injured in camp along with the oline Colts would be the number one seed right now. Gets me so excited for next season.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Defensive/STs scores is one thing. Points off turnovers needs to be washed more carefully. There's an advantage for the offense if you get the ball in favorable field position, but other than that, it's just another possession. We've had several turnovers deep in our own territory. 

 

We picked off Brady at our own 10, and took a fumble at our own 34. These are regular possessions. Obviously some turnovers yield great field position, combined with sudden change, and the offense has a clear advantage. That's not always the case, though.

 

I agree, but it's still a chance for what could be a 14 point swing. It negates an opponent's chance to score, basically a skipped possession. And at worst, its a clock chewer and keeps their D on the field, and O off.

 

But I think in just about every world, 100+ points off turnovers is a great thing. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I know a lot of people will disagree with this but I truly feel if Wentz and the oline had not been injured in camp along with the oline Colts would be the number one seed right now. Gets me so excited for next season.

I think we would've beat the Ravens regarding the 1st 5 games had we had a proper training camp. We had a big lead but made so many mistakes. We may have even beaten the Rams in game #2. Our rust came off once we beat the Texans in week 6, since then we are 6-2. 

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

Is points off turnovers a very important stat?  if they don't turn it over, and score instead of turning it over, they will be giving the ball back to our offense by kicking off anyway and we will either be scoring or not.  Does it matter how we got the chance?

 

I feel like I may be missing something.  (Unless you mean points by the defense like a pick 6 or something.)

Like I said to supe above... It negates an opponents chance of scoring, skips their possession more or less, and at worst, keeps their O off the field, and D on the field, chewing clock. And could create a 14 point swing in some situations.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think we would've beat the Ravens regarding the 1st 5 games had we had a proper training camp. We had a big lead but made so many mistakes. We may have even beaten the Rams in game #2. Our rust came off once we beat the Texans in week 6, since then we are 6-2. 

Add we probably best Seahawks. Wentz maybe doesn’t get hurt against Rams and we win the first Titans game. Maybe best Rams.  Maybe even win the second one against Titans because Wentz  would of been more settled in.

[Fluke_33]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Like I said to supe above... It negates an opponents chance of scoring, skips their possession more or less, and at worst, keeps their O off the field, and D on the field, chewing clock. And could create a 14 point swing in some situations.

Sorry didn't see his post when i posted.  Thought i was missing something obvious.  Thanks!

[2006Coltsbestever]

9 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Add we probably best Seahawks. Wentz maybe doesn’t get hurt against Rams and we win the first Titans game. Maybe best Rams.  Maybe even win the second one against Titans because Wentz  would of been more settled in.

The future looks great, I am pleased knowing this like you. We have a very good GM, good Coach, good QB, and a GREAT RB. Our defense is iffy but we do one thing that is great, that is create turnovers. When it comes to the playoffs, winning the TO battle is normally the difference between winning and losing.

[Superman]

7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I agree, but it's still a chance for what could be a 14 point swing. It negates an opponent's chance to score, basically a skipped possession. And at worst, its a clock chewer and keeps their D on the field, and O off.

 

But I think in just about every world, 100+ points off turnovers is a great thing. 

 

I'll definitely take the points off turnovers. I thought you were suggesting that points off turnovers should be held against the offense, but I guess not.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'll definitely take the points off turnovers. I thought you were suggesting that points off turnovers should be held against the offense, but I guess not.

Definitely not held against the O. But it's absolutely a factor you have to consider when talking offensive PPG. 

 

We're averaging 2.2 takeaways a game. So at minimum it's probably fair to suggest that equates to at least one "extra" possession a game. 

 

The O of course still has to score (unless it's a P6), but it's still somewhat of extra opportunity. 

[chad72]

35 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think we would've beat the Ravens regarding the 1st 5 games had we had a proper training camp. We had a big lead but made so many mistakes. We may have even beaten the Rams in game #2. Our rust came off once we beat the Texans in week 6, since then we are 6-2. 

 

The 2 games we lost, we still lost because we had turnovers in critical situations. Great teams don't beat themselves, and we have not found a way to reduce those in critical situations. Pick six in 4th qtr. and INT in OT vs Titans, and Wentz fumble, Hines fumble and Wentz INT in the 4th qtr. vs Bucs were all critical mistakes. The rust has come off, the propensity to turn the ball over has not against the better teams.

 

Right now, we are a Yeah but...team that cannot separate itself from its self-inflicted mistakes despite its talent.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

11 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

The 2 games we lost, we still lost because we had turnovers in critical situations. Great teams don't beat themselves, and we have not found a way to reduce those in critical situations. Pick six in 4th qtr. and INT in OT vs Titans, and Wentz fumble, Hines fumble and Wentz INT in the 4th qtr. vs Bucs were all critical mistakes. The rust has come off, the propensity to turn the ball over has not against the better teams.

 

Right now, we are a Yeah but...team that cannot separate itself from its self-inflicted mistakes despite its talent.

I will throw out Tampa because that game just happened. I am convinced if both those Titan games happened later Taylor would of ran more and we win those games.

[Superman]

14 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Definitely not held against the O. But it's absolutely a factor you have to consider when talking offensive PPG. 

 

We're averaging 2.2 takeaways a game. So at minimum it's probably fair to suggest that equates to at least one "extra" possession a game. 

 

The O of course still has to score (unless it's a P6), but it's still somewhat of extra opportunity. 

 

It's a stop, for all we know. It would be cool to see a study on the impact of favorable field position from turnovers and 3 and outs on points per game. 

 

Last season, our points per game got a significant boost from defensive/STs scores. I haven't looked very closely this year to compare.

[DougDew]

Frank calls great plays after we get turnovers.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Another team could enter the mix here and that’s the dolphins. Colts have tie breaker against them though.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It's a stop, for all we know. It would be cool to see a study on the impact of favorable field position from turnovers and 3 and outs on points per game. 

 

Last season, our points per game got a significant boost from defensive/STs scores. I haven't looked very closely this year to compare.

 

I think at minimum, you have to equate some basic things. Increased basic time of possession for your O, and decreased time of possession for theirs. Definite swing in that area. The NFL averages roughly 60 offensive plays per game, 10 offensive series per game, and about 6 plays per series IIRC. We are averaging 2.2 takeaways per game, which is about 1.0 over the league median. 

 

So even if you assume we stop them on average mid drive (3 plays in), that's decreasing the opponents offense by 6.6 plays per game, or a full series. And that flips those offensive snaps to us. Now if you just want to use the delta over average (which is 1.0), then it's 3.0 plays per game flipped. 

 

I'd love to see some studies on it too. Of course our RZ% is 20th and not good, so overall it might be a wash of factors. But can you imagine if your RZ% was top 10ish instead of below average, and have that takeaway flip?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I wonder how much the Colts defense will be able to confuse a Rookie QB when they play them in 2 weeks.

[richard pallo]

2 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I wonder how much the Colts defense will be able to confuse a Rookie QB when they play them in 2 weeks.

That should be an advantage for us.  Hopefully Flus doesn't go strictly vanilla and let's him get comfortable and nickel and dime us all night. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

36 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Another team could enter the mix here and that’s the dolphins. Colts have tie breaker against them though.

Yeah we have tiebreaker over them so I am not worried about them. I can't wait for tonight's game, Pats at Bills - should be fun.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

17 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah we have tiebreaker over them so I am not worried about them. I can't wait for tonight's game, Pats at Bills - should be fun.

I am like how did the dolphins get back to just one game behind us. They got TUA back and have won five in a row.

[TaylorStillTruckedYou]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

 

I cut the cord for a about a year and a half, and replaced most of my programming with streaming. Ultimately, the deciding factor for me was the ability to record, pause, fast forward, rewind, etc., with a regular DVR. Especially sports.

 

Now, Sunday Ticket is negotiating with a bunch of streamers, and it's making me nervous. 

Sunday Ticket is such an overpriced service.  International countries can stream games for 9.99 while we have to pay 79.99 not for the year but EVERY month.  It's ridiculous 

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, TaylorStillTruckedYou said:

Sunday Ticket is such an overpriced service.  International countries can stream games for 9.99 while we have to pay 79.99 not for the year but EVERY month.  It's ridiculous 

 

Streaming vs cable is very different.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Wentzszn said:

I am like how did the dolphins get back to just one game behind us. They got TUA back and have won five in a row.

4 of their last 5 games were wins vs Houston, Jets, Panthers, Giants.

[JediXMan]

7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

4 of their last 5 games were wins vs Houston, Jets, Panthers, Giants.

Cam is washed funny how people thought he was “back” Once teams adjusted to his tendencies he reverted back to Patriots Cam lol.

[AKB]

 

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

Cam is washed funny how people thought he was “back” Once teams adjusted to his tendencies he reverted back to Patriots Cam lol.

Cam aside, those teams just aren't good lol.. On Cam, he had an awful game vs Miami, but had a very good game the week before at WFT. 

 

Tua though has had 3 straight good games. Vs bad teams, but still good.

 

Miami has a lot of good pieces. Maybe things are starting to gel for them, and they're learning to win. Regardless, doubt Tua is the answer. Better than JB, but not a long term top 15 kind of QB. IDK, could be wrong.