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AFC Playoff Picture Record/Schedule/Discussion *Updated* (Merge)


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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

The AFC playoffs are going to be so good. I think KC is above everyone else but the rest of the teams are all pretty even. 

KC is good, but they won't be the #1 seed unless the Steelers lose again (to an AFC team this time) because they're perfect in Conference play, while the Chiefs have lost to a divisional opponent.

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20 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

KC is good, but they won't be the #1 seed unless the Steelers lose again (to an AFC team this time) because they're perfect in Conference play, while the Chiefs have lost to a divisional opponent.

The Steelers are kind of sliding to end the season and are banged up. Their schedule isn’t super easy. I can almost bank on KC getting that number one seed.

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10 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I think Pitt beats Buff

Steelers are not as good as their record. It’s also in buffalo. Steelers are more on the level of the second year with the browns, colts, and titans. No Dupree. Their offense is almost the exact same as the colts. A old immobile QB who throws a bunch of quick rhythm passes with the occasional chunk play.

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12 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I think Pitt beats Buff

They might. I just think Pitt is really beat up. Bills are playing really well right now. They should be on a 3 game winning streak if not for the crazy hail mary vs the Cards. 

 

I also think Tomlin should be COY. What a year he has done. Ben is pretty limited and he has gotten everything out of that team. Close games and really good coaching.

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9 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I think ultimately both lose 1 more 

As far when im not sure who 

I think this a probable scenario, and if KC's loss is to another AFC team, then they wouldn't be able to match Pittsburgh in Conference record if the Steelers only lose to 1 AFC opponent.

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2 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

If Buffalo plays well enough they could even take 2 away from Pitt

If Buffalo's' roster was demonstrably better than the Pittsburgh's, I'd consider this a possibility. Assuming the rosters were pretty even, the difference maker would probably be coaching and in that respect, I have more confidence in Mike Tomlin a little more than I do Sean McDermott.

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On 12/11/2020 at 4:42 PM, Lancer1 said:

If Buffalo's' roster was demonstrably better than the Pittsburgh's, I'd consider this a possibility. Assuming the rosters were pretty even, the difference maker would probably be coaching and in that respect, I have more confidence in Mike Tomlin a little more than I do Sean McDermott.

Pitt is really banged up so I am not sure they have a great advantage with the roster. Also Allen is playing lights out right now. I have a tough time seeing Ben staying with him. 

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2 hours ago, FortheWin said:

Pitt is really banged up so I am not sure they have a great advantage with the roster. Also Allen is playing lights out right now. I have a tough time seeing Ben staying with him. 

It should be a great game tonite, but it won't be Big Ben directly competing with Josh Allen, they'll each be going against the other team's defensive units and Pittsburgh has a pretty good one.

 

The Steelers almost lost to Baltimore, they did lose to Washington and now they see their grip on the AFC's top seed slipping away, as well as alot of folks calling them pretenders right now and predicting their demise and I think they show up under the bright lights tonite, and remind everyone why they won their first 11 games, it wasn't all good luck & weak opponents.

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Looking at the road ahead for the Colts, and how things should, or might pan out. Also, looking at teams that are in the playoffs, or in the conversation (not eliminated).

Using a few simulators/predictors, which I'll link below.

 

Remaining schedule, and likely Vegas favorits/outcomes below

 

The TLDR
1. Colts going 2-1 (loss to Pitt) should be enough to get  us in at 7.
2. Moving up from the last spot is a tall order, but not impossible. Best shot is if TN loses twice (making us 4th), or if the underdog Browns beat the Ravens tonight, which would give us a shot at 6th. 
3. Our highly unlikely ceiling is 2nd. That would likely require us winning out, beating Pitt, Pitt losing to Clevlend or Cinci, and Buffalo losing all 2 of 3 (they do play 3 contenders).
4. Bills and Dolphins have the hardest road, both playing 3 contenders. Bills, obviously, are sitting in a much better position to start though.

 

Likely First Round if favorites win

KC Bye

Indy at Pitt 

Cleveland at Buffalo

Ravens at Titans

 

The details...

 

Note (F=Favorite)

Colts (9-4, 6th)
Likely record: 11-5

Likely playoff position: 7th
Texans at Colts (F, -7)
Colts at Pitt (F)
Jax at Colts (F)

 

KC (12-1, 1st)
Likely record: 15-1
Likely playoff position: 1st

KC (F, -4) at NO 
ATL at KC (F)
LAC at KC (F)
Note: KC faces only one playoff contender 

 

Pitt (11-2, 2nd)
Likely record: 14-2
Likely playoff position: 2nd

Pitt (F) at Bengals
Colts at Pitt (F)
Pitt (F) at Browns
Note: Pitt faces 2 teams in the AFC hunt

 

Bills (10-3, 3rd)
Likely record: 13-3
Likely playoff position:  3rd

Bills (F) at Broncos
Bills (F) at Pats
Dophins at Bills (F)
Note: Bills faces 3 teams in the AFC hunt

 

Titans (9-4, 4th)
Likely record: 11-5
Likely playoff position: 4th

Lions at Titans (F)
Titans at GB (F)
Titans (F) at Texans
Note: Titans face only 1 playoff team

 

Browns (9-3, 5th)
Likely record: 11-5
Likely playoff position: 6th

Ravens (F) at Browns
Browns (F) at Giants
Browns (F) at Jets
Steelers (F) at Browns
Note: Browns face 2 playoff contenders

 

Dolphins (8-5, 7th)
Likely record: 9-7
Likely playoff position: OUT

Pats at Dolphins (F)
Dolpins at LVR (F)
Dophins at Bills (F)
Note: Dolphins face 3 playoff contenders

 

Ravens (7-5, 8th)
Likely record: 11-5
Likely playoff position:  5th

Ravens (F) at Browns
Jax at Ravens (F)
Giants at Ravens (F)
Ravens (F) at Bengals 
Note: Ravens only play on playoff contender


Raiders (7-6, 9th)
Likely record: 10-6
Likely playoff position: OUT

LAC at LVR (F)
Dolpins at LVR (F)
LVR (F) at Brocos
Note: LVR plays 2 contenders

 

Pats (6-7, 10th)
Likely record: 7-9
Likely playoff position: Out

Pats at Dolphins (F)
Bills (F) at Pats 
Jets at Pats (F)
Note: Pats play 2 contenders

 

Broncos (5-8, 11th)
While they aren't eliminated, not going to happen...

 

 

https://playoffpredictors.com/Football

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

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Just now, EastStreet said:

Just a note for those voting we'll run the table AND not winning the AFCS....

If we go 12-4, we would be statistically likely to win the AFCS too.

 

So, then the Titans are statistically going to lose a game?  To me, it's more likely we both end up with 5 loses, and they win the division.

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4 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

So, then the Titans are statistically going to lose a game?  To me, it's more likely we both end up with 5 loses, and they win the division.

That's what I projected, and what the simulators suggests. 

 

But... if the Colts do win out, they are statistically more likely to win the AFCS than the Titans, because they assume GB will beat them in GB

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1 hour ago, danlhart87 said:

Colts lose to Steelers and Texans 

Bills beat Dolphins in week 17 which puts us in

 

1. Chiefs

2. Bills

3. Steelers

4. Titans 

5. Ravens/Browns 

6. Browns/Ravens

7. Colts 

 

The 5 and 6 seed depends on winner tonight 

 

 

You should stay tuned for my AFC update after tonights game.

 

Your scenario doesnt end how you think.

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1 minute ago, coltfaninnewyork said:

Why not ?we beat Steelers and pack beat’s the titans that gives us division 

I don't know if this is to me or not, but that is no doubt a possibility.

 

Im referring to danlhart87 scenario.

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3 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

The scenarios are endless with 3 weeks im looking forward to clear things up soon

When I update the AFC thread, I am going to take a deeper dive into what the Colts need to happen.

 

 

If I can stay awake tonight, I will post it tonight, if not it will be tomorrow. 

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