Qb Is Not A Need, Pass On Luck

[Blue Horseshoe]

I think RGIII will be good player but it is LUCK that will end up in Canton.

All he will need is a ticket.

[mvbighead]

This is going to be an easy arguement. Everyone is goong to point out to you the difference between a knee injury and the seriousness of a neck injury (3-4 surgeries), his age, and the posibility that his nerves may not fully recover and therefore not allowing him to be able to make NFL throws.

That is all meaningless opinion at this point. The Doctors that have done the surgery insist that it is a matter of when (not if) the nerves regenerate. They also insist that if Manning were their own son, they would advise him to go ahead and continue playing in the NFL. All the reports suggest that it is simply a matter of time. Only media "analysts" seem to be speculating that retirement is his only option (Hello Rob Lowe).

As for age, Favre's career year was when he was what, 40?

Manning is 35... which could mean that, if he heals as DOCTORS expect him to, he could have a healthy 3-5 years or more left.

So, analysts being who they are, I prefer to wait and see what actually happens. But IF Manning is healthy AND IF they renegotiate, I would prefer that they trade the Luck pick and build the TEAM. QB is a need, sure, but so is everything else at this point.

[Phil J]

It is not exactly the same scenario, but we're talking about a HOF QB who went down with a major injury, and the team wasn't immediately jumping ship to replace him.

that QB at that time had at least 8 or 9 more seasons left in him. ACL injury for the QB doesn't effect his throwing as much as nerve damage and neck issues.

we are faced with a QB who may not be able to toss the ball more than 20 yards for the rest of his life. oh, and if he can, he's got 3 or 4 years left MAX. I understand being sentimental at all, but that is just bad business if you have to depend on him and mortgage the team on a couple of chances to win the SB, as opposed to a possible 15 chances. Not saying Oseweiler or someone can't get there eventually, but why not have the best prospect at QB since 1983? next season won't be great with Luck, so we have another draft next year possibly in the top 10, and now we can REALLY rebuild while other teams are scrambling for their next QB.

Manning is done. I've cried myself to sleep in my 18 jersey. Gotten over it. Let it go, people. Accept the complete and total rebuild, from top to bottom.

[Phil J]

If Luck is the next big thing that everyone claims, you have to take him... no question. But you shouldn't carry him as a backup to PM, and you should use whatever money you gain from cutting PM to bring in help for Luck.

and somehow you assume that they WONT do this?

[Flash7]

That is all meaningless opinion at this point. The Doctors that have done the surgery insist that it is a matter of when (not if) the nerves regenerate. They also insist that if Manning were their own son, they would advise him to go ahead and continue playing in the NFL. All the reports suggest that it is simply a matter of time. Only media "analysts" seem to be speculating that retirement is his only option (Hello Rob Lowe).

As for age, Favre's career year was when he was what, 40?

Manning is 35... which could mean that, if he heals as DOCTORS expect him to, he could have a healthy 3-5 years or more left.

So, analysts being who they are, I prefer to wait and see what actually happens. But IF Manning is healthy AND IF they renegotiate, I would prefer that they trade the Luck pick and build the TEAM. QB is a need, sure, but so is everything else at this point.

I like your style of arguement, it's civil and not attacking, which is great. Thank you for that.

Now let me counter with what I noticed right away from your previous statement. There were a lot of "if"s, and what that immediately signaled to me was that there is a lot of uncertainty with this situation, right? If Manning were clearly healthy and if he could throw at previous levels, then perhaps the Colts may consider trading the pick. However, the situation as it is currently presented is so much in favor of the Colts drafting Luck, simply because of the uncertainty that Manning's situation provides. the Colts can't operate in the dark. Between the two situations, it's clear that they have to draft Luck.

You have stated that the Manning's doctors have cleared him to play and that the nerve regenration is a matter of time. Again, this would indicate to the Colts that they are uncertain of when and if Manning can actually regain his level of play.

Lastly, you used Favre as a measuring stick for age. Bad idea considering that we look at Favre as an exception. The fact that Favre played well at his old age was what made it such an interesting story. The not so interesting stories are of the numerous old QBs who played poorly and quietly left the league, without much notice. That's what happens to a majority of the older QBs. Their ability to play diminishes with age.

[Ramblinwreck7]

The Hughes type of good?

If you want to draft all of the like that then go ahead.

Anyways, I think he will prove you wrong this year.

Edited February 29, 2012 by Coltssouth
inappropriate

[Portage Coltfans]

Funny you mention the Bengals making it to the playoffs....with a rookie QB.

Funny you mention not knowing if we'll draft good players in 2013,2014,2015, but no mention of the likelyhood of not drafting good player in 2012, when you want us to trade our pick for multiple picks.....

Watching an older player regress, is more fun that watching a younger player grow? Seems odd to me....Sadistic really.....

Luck won't be the last great QB option, your 100% correct....But for what its worth the Dolphins and Rams are still kicking themselves for not taking Matt Ryan, and Atlanta is laughing all the way... ATL 3 Playoff appearances, 43-21 record since 2008....Miami/Stl 43-85 1 Playoff appearance......

yeah at **** of a lot more fun, and I'm proud to support Manning at the End of his Career, just like I did at the beginning. I never said I wouldn't support Luck, (if he is a colt) but what is clearly Sadistic and pathetic is how you dismiss someone that gave you everything as a football fan for the past 10+ years. I'm pround for supporting Manning through the good and the bad, begining and the end. Hopefully Luck doesnt' see how you treat Manning, because he'll know how you'll treat him near the end of his career too. Don't say, "this is a business" if you actually think that this was just a business, then you wouldn't even be a member to this forum. the NFL isn't just a business, way to many human emotions involved. What a boring industry it would be without emotion. I'm embarrased that I have to be fans with people like you, so quick to say that enjoying the end of a HOFer, and the best player in Colts History sadistic? Embarassing!!!!!!!!!

Matt ryan?? , you think he would've made that big of a difference in STL?? STL wasn't horrible last year just because of Sam Bradford.

[Phil J]

All he will need is a ticket.

nope. you will need the ticket just so you can be there to curse his name. he will get the bust and the jacket. deal with it.

[UndecidedFrog]

That is all meaningless opinion at this point. The Doctors that have done the surgery insist that it is a matter of when (not if) the nerves regenerate. They also insist that if Manning were their own son, they would advise him to go ahead and continue playing in the NFL. All the reports suggest that it is simply a matter of time. Only media "analysts" seem to be speculating that retirement is his only option (Hello Rob Lowe).

The doctors have also told us that if the progress in rehabilitation plateaus, then nerve regeneration is stopped at that level, and continued progress should not be expected.

The doctors have not insisted that if their son had similar nerve damage issues that he should go out there and play QB at the NFL level. What the doctors have said about clearing him medically to play was regarding his cervical fusion, not his nerve issue, which to date, we have no information as to whether PM is continuing to experience progress in rehabilitation or has already plateaued.

As for age, Favre's career year was when he was what, 40?

Although, the vast majority of elite franchise QBs have or should have retired at or before the age of 35, given their declining performances.

http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/topic/5234-the-decline-and-retirement-age-of-great-nfl-qbs/page__fromsearch__1

http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/topic/5211-statistical-studies-on-ageperformance-of-nfl-qbs/page__fromsearch__1

Favre was an outlier. There is no reason to expect that PM is an outlier.

Manning is 35... which could mean that, if he heals as DOCTORS expect him to, he could have a healthy 3-5 years or more left.

No, doctors do not expect anything regarding the nerve regeneration. They have specifically warned that it may heal 100%, and it may plateau, in which case, it will stop healing at that point. There is no expectation that he will be back for 3-5 years, let alone next season.

[Ramblinwreck7]

we are more than a few players away. talent on D is limited to Freeney, Mathis, Bethea, Nevis, and Angerer. everyone else is JV. that's ALOT of holes to fill. and those holes will have to wait till the 2nd round and on.

and whose to say that all those players we took instead of Luck would work out? what if we have a TERRIBLE 2012 draft? you completely glossed over the part where i said that if we trade the pick we absolutely 100% must win the Superbowl or the fanbase will completely revolt. if we have a terrible season, and Manning retires or gets worse in his last couple years, and we watch Luck have a Canton-bound career somewhere else, EVERYONE will be losing their s******.

better to start over without Wayne, Saturday, Clark, and yes, Peyton Manning. the O is gonna be completely gutted. we have a few bad seasons, and begin the climb again to the top of the AFC.

"but I don't want a couple of bad seasons!!!! i want a SB nowwwwwww!!!!!!! waaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!!!!" LOL

? Do you even know how a team is built? Do you actually think that every player at every position on a top team is a stud pro bowler? Give me a break...

Since you like your what if questions, as most Andrew Luck people do... what if all 5 so draft picks we get for Luck become Hall of Famers elsewhere and Luck doesn't work out? We could have had one of the best teams ever. Now you should realize how silly your what if questions are...

The point of drafting is to draft well duh... not to be scared of messing up. That's a horrible attitude to have.

[UndecidedFrog]

Thing is, with Luck, your probability is all based on one person. Call it 50/50, call it whatever you like.

If you trade the pick, you have a 50/50 shot on 3 or 4 players as individuals.

So if they were to trade the pick and nab Blackmon, Tannehill, Poe, and another guy.

The odds of Blackmon panning out like an AJ Green are 50/50.

The odds of Tannehill panning out like an Andy Dalton are 50/50.

The odds of Poe panning out like a Haloti Ngata are 50/50.

Obviously, the idea is that earlier in the draft, your odds of finding a star player should be better than 50/50 as they are selected over those below them. Poe's real odds of being the next Haloti Ngata are probably less than 50/50, but if he could turn out to be a stout pro-bowl NT...

In any case, lets say Blackmon works out to be like a Michael Crabtree. Nothing special thus far, but a talented enough player.

Tannehill works out to be better than Dalton.

Poe ends up flopping as a workout warrior.

We'd have 2 guys that can contribute for some time, and one guy that ends up being cut later on. Vs. 1 guy who could take a knee shot ala Pollard vs. Brady and set your franchise back a year or worse.

That is a fallacy of logic. Not every draft prospect carries the equal probability of being a bust. If you truly think this, then you should favor trading the #1 overall pick, the 2nd round, the 3rd round, 4th,5th and 6th round picks in exchange for all the picks of the 7th round to maximize your probability of fielding a quality team.

The truth of the matter is that there is a reason why some prospects are ranked higher than others. Given this fact, you must acknowledge that they carry different probabilities for busting in the NFL. In fact, if you do a regression analysis, I would not be surprised to see a fairly good reverse correlation between higher ranked prospects and the lower probability to bust.

[SilentHill]

I cant believe it that this thread keeps going...

It's plan and simple.. If your a colts fan then get on board whith whoever we have at QB next season and stop whining about it and if your not a colts fan then get out.

Thats it, end of story, end of debate.

[Phil J]

? Do you even know how a team is built? Do you actually think that every player at every position on a top team is a stud pro bowler? Give me a break...

when did i say that? LOL

our D sucks. deal with it. our O will suck too when Wayne/Saturday/Manning is gone. deal with that, too! this stupid "quick fix, SB next year!!!" garbage you guys are spitting is ridiculous, and not a possibility.

hahaha

[IndyTrav]

yeah at **** of a lot more fun, and I'm proud to support Manning at the End of his Career, just like I did at the beginning. I never said I wouldn't support Luck, (if he is a colt) but what is clearly Sadistic and pathetic is how you dismiss someone that gave you everything as a football fan for the past 10+ years. I'm pround for supporting Manning through the good and the bad, begining and the end. Hopefully Luck doesnt' see how you treat Manning, because he'll know how you'll treat him near the end of his career too. Don't say, "this is a business" if you actually think that this was just a business, then you wouldn't even be a member to this forum. the NFL isn't just a business, way to many human emotions involved. What a boring industry it would be without emotion. I'm embarrased that I have to be fans with people like you, so quick to say that enjoying the end of a HOFer, and the best player in Colts History sadistic? Embarassing!!!!!!!!!

Matt ryan?? , you think he would've made that big of a difference in STL?? STL wasn't horrible last year just because of Sam Bradford.

How did you turn that into not supporting Manning? You said you would rather watch an older player play(regress), and consider it more enjoyable than watching a younger player grow. Thats fine and dandy, but how did that turn into "being against Manning and treating him badly". You make severe leaps and bounds in your posts. And completely ignored everything else in that post.

And btw you should take a look at Matt Ryan and compare him to what Manning did his first years as well.

[JWF]

when did i say that? LOL

our D sucks. deal with it. our O will suck too when Wayne/Saturday/Manning is gone. deal with that, too! this stupid "quick fix, SB next year!!!" garbage you guys are spitting is ridiculous, and not a possibility.

hahaha

To be fair it is a possibility.

There is a chance Manning comes back as his old self, the Colts trade down and hit home runs on every pick, bring back every veteran, manage to flawlessly transition to the new offensive and defensive schemes in one offseason and find a way to bring in a FA and stay under the cap.

Its possible...just extremely unlikely.

[braveheartcolt]

If you want to draft all of the like that then go ahead.

Anyways, I think he will prove you wrong this year.

I may be stupid (good editing there Coltsouth), but believing that a #1 draft pick will be a bust whilst assuming all the trade picks we could get in his place will be elite is quite silly. If Hughes proves he is an NFL starter, then I will be very happy. I also believe that he will not become anything else but camp fodder.

[UndecidedFrog]

To be fair it is a possibility.

There is a chance Manning comes back as his old self, the Colts trade down and hit home runs on every pick, bring back every veteran, manage to flawlessly transition to the new offensive and defensive schemes in one offseason and find a way to bring in a FA and stay under the cap.

Its possible...just extremely unlikely.

Yes, everything is possible.

However, not everything is probable.

[JWF]

yeah at **** of a lot more fun, and I'm proud to support Manning at the End of his Career, just like I did at the beginning. I never said I wouldn't support Luck, (if he is a colt) but what is clearly Sadistic and pathetic is how you dismiss someone that gave you everything as a football fan for the past 10+ years.

Sadistic? Pathetic? Just want to remind you football is a game and these guys have it better than probably 95% of the people on this planet.

This isnt like dumping your wife for a new one because you get tired of her.

Every player has the time come when its over. Not saying that is the case for Manning now but its completely up in the air at this point and the Colts just cant take the risk and bring him back because of loyalty. If he can play then he needs to be back. Otherwise...its time to move on.

[Vance]

Yes, everything is possible.

However, not everything is probable.

I like you.

[Jaric]

yeah at **** of a lot more fun, and I'm proud to support Manning at the End of his Career, just like I did at the beginning. I never said I wouldn't support Luck, (if he is a colt) but what is clearly Sadistic and pathetic is how you dismiss someone that gave you everything as a football fan for the past 10+ years. I'm pround for supporting Manning through the good and the bad, begining and the end. Hopefully Luck doesnt' see how you treat Manning, because he'll know how you'll treat him near the end of his career too. Don't say, "this is a business" if you actually think that this was just a business, then you wouldn't even be a member to this forum. the NFL isn't just a business, way to many human emotions involved. What a boring industry it would be without emotion. I'm embarrased that I have to be fans with people like you, so quick to say that enjoying the end of a HOFer, and the best player in Colts History sadistic? Embarassing!!!!!!!!!

Matt ryan?? , you think he would've made that big of a difference in STL?? STL wasn't horrible last year just because of Sam Bradford.

Sadistic?

I don't think that means what you seem to think it means.

[Ramblinwreck7]

I like your style of arguement, it's civil and not attacking, which is great. Thank you for that. Now let me counter with what I noticed right away from your previous statement. There were a lot of "if"s, and what that immediately signaled to me was that there is a lot of uncertainty with this situation, right? If Manning were clearly healthy and if he could throw at previous levels, then perhaps the Colts may consider trading the pick. However, the situation as it is currently presented is so much in favor of the Colts drafting Luck, simply because of the uncertainty that Manning's situation provides. the Colts can't operate in the dark. Between the two situations, it's clear that they have to draft Luck. You have stated that the Manning's doctors have cleared him to play and that the nerve regenration is a matter of time. Again, this would indicate to the Colts that they are uncertain of when and if Manning can actually regain his level of play. Lastly, you used Favre as a measuring stick for age. Bad idea considering that we look at Favre as an exception. The fact that Favre played well at his old age was what made it such an interesting story. The not so interesting stories are of the numerous old QBs who played poorly and quietly left the league, without much notice. That's what happens to a majority of the older QBs. Their ability to play diminishes with age.

Kurt Warner? He retired at 38 and he was playing as good as ever. It's not a matter of age per say, it's a matter of being in football shape. You could have a 60 year old playing quarterback if he could take some hits from playing the quarterback position and if he had a good arm. 35 years isn't that old, and Manning hasn't been hit very much over the years because of his ability to avoid it. He's not an old man like some people try to portray him to be.

[Ramblinwreck7]

when did i say that? LOL our D sucks. deal with it. our O will suck too when Wayne/Saturday/Manning is gone. deal with that, too! this stupid "quick fix, SB next year!!!" garbage you guys are spitting is ridiculous, and not a possibility. hahaha

You said we need more then a couple of players to become a good team, but you yourself listed 5 players on our defense who are good. Add 2 or 3 players to that, plus the other guys you are undervalueing, and you've got some pretty good players on defense.

And if it's so stupid like you seem to think, why do you keep responding? And your laughing at the end of your comment proves that you are now trolling. You are trying to get a reaction, but I deal in logic when it comes to things like this.

And why did you selectively respond to my comments? Don't avoid the other parts, their designed to counter what you said, which is what they did.

[Flash7]

Kurt Warner? He retired at 38 and he was playing as good as ever. It's not a matter of age per say, it's a matter of being in football shape. You could have a 60 year old playing quarterback if he could take some hits from playing the quarterback position and if he had a good arm. 35 years isn't that old, and Manning hasn't been hit very much over the years because of his ability to avoid it. He's not an old man like some people try to portray him to be.

You are correct in that he is not an old man. However, when deciding between Luck and Manning, age does play a part in the decision.

Also, I can't say that I agree with you in that Manning has done a good job of avoiding hits, since it has been thought that the hit that he took agains the Redskins is what lead to his shoulder discomfort, which he played through, which led to multiple surgeries. It was an on the field hit that has been reported to have started this whole injury.

[Ramblinwreck7]

I may be stupid (good editing there Coltsouth), but believing that a #1 draft pick will be a bust whilst assuming all the trade picks we could get in his place will be elite is quite silly. If Hughes proves he is an NFL starter, then I will be very happy. I also believe that he will not become anything else but camp fodder.

Your right that would be silly... but why did you mention it? Find me a post where I said that Luck will be a bust and everyone else will be elite. You won't, so I'm trying to understand your post.

And I didn't call you stupid lol, I said if you draft dumb enough to pick players who will take at least as long as Jerry Hughes to develop then go ahead. Since your not drafting I'm also not sure how you portrayed that to yourself. I guess you just misunderstood what I said.

[Ramblinwreck7]

You are correct in that he is not an old man. However, when deciding between Luck and Manning, age does play a part in the decision. Also, I can't say that I agree with you in that Manning has done a good job of avoiding hits, since it has been thought that the hit that he took agains the Redskins is what lead to his shoulder discomfort, which he played through, which led to multiple surgeries. It was an on the field hit that has been reported to have started this whole injury.

Well of course he's going to take hits, he plays quarterback. He limits the number of hits he takes, you have to at least agree with that.

[mvbighead]

<p>

That is a fallacy of logic. Not every draft prospect carries the equal probability of being a bust. If you truly think this, then you should favor trading the #1 overall pick, the 2nd round, the 3rd round, 4th,5th and 6th round picks in exchange for all the picks of the 7th round to maximize your probability of fielding a quality team. The truth of the matter is that there is a reason why some prospects are ranked higher than others. Given this fact, you must acknowledge that they carry different probabilities for busting in the NFL. In fact, if you do a regression analysis, I would not be surprised to see a fairly good reverse correlation between higher ranked prospects and the lower probability to bust.

</p>

<p> </p>

<p>Apparently you skimmed and got the 50/50s.   Allow me to quote myself:</p>

<p> </p>

<p>

<span style="background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247); color: rgb(40, 40, 40); font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; ">Call it 50/50, call it whatever you like.</span>

</p>

<p> </p>

<p>

<span style="background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247); color: rgb(40, 40, 40); font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; ">Obviously, the idea is that earlier in the draft, your odds of finding a star player should be better than 50/50 as they are selected over those below them.</span>

</p>

<div>

<p>

<span style="background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247); color: rgb(40, 40, 40); font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; ">Poe's real odds of being the next Haloti Ngata are probably less than 50/50, but if he could turn out to be a stout pro-bowl NT...</span>

</p>

</div>

<div>

<p>

<span style="background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247); color: rgb(40, 40, 40); font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; ">lets say Blackmon works out to be like a Michael Crabtree.</span>

</p>

</div>

<div>

<p>

<span style="background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247); color: rgb(40, 40, 40); font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; ">Poe ends up flopping as a workout warrior.</span>

</p>

</div>

<div> </div>

<p>Basically, no one player is a sure thing.  Ryan Leaf was selected 2nd overall, and he fizzled quickly.  Jamarcus Russel was out in less than a few years. A number of other examples can be pulled from every draft.  At best, based on the past 10 years of 1st round QBs, there is a 50/50 shot that Luck does not pan out as all the experts predict.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>The further down the draft you move, the worse the odds tend to get.  However, the level of expectation as you move further from the top pick decreases as well, which gives young players time to develop before they hit the field.  The Colts often practiced that methodology by drafting solid players, but always allowing veterans to retain starting positions.  This happened with Jason David and Nick Harper over Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden.  And that may no longer be the philosophy with the new staff, but the fact remains that the lower you go in the draft, the more opportunity the coaching staff has to allow that player to develop before their number is called.  With Luck, they're going to need to put him on the field now.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>This team's line is not quite yet capable to support a green QB.  Manning has gotten by all these years with exceptional pocket awareness.  He knows better than anyone when he should get rid of the ball, and thus our team has always been seen as a pass blocking team.  Throw in Curtis Painter, Kerry Collins, or Dan Orlovsky, and the results differ wildly.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>What am I getting at?  We cannot expect Luck to succeed behind our line.  If Manning leaves, that likely means that Garcon and Wayne are out too.  So we'll then have Collie (who is getting close to having a few to many concussions), Gonzalez (who has other injury issues), and Blair White as our remaining receivers.  No vertical threats, no jump ball specialists, no studs, just guys who do a good job of catching a perfectly thrown pass when they are healthy enough to be on the field.  Honestly, the most reliable of that group has been Blair White.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>But as to drafting in solely in the 7th round, one more time, I'll quote myself:</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p>

<span style="background-color: rgb(247, 247, 247); color: rgb(40, 40, 40); font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 19px; ">Obviously, the idea is that earlier in the draft, your odds of finding a star player should be better than 50/50 as they are selected over those below them.</span>

</p>

<div> </div>

<div>All that said, we could stand to improve this team significantly with the demand that other teams have for either RG3 or Luck.  If the Falcons gave up a load for a receiver, just imagine what you'd get for a top flight QB prospect.</div>

<div> </div>

<div>In any case, we'll very likely draft Luck, I'm just saying that we have more options.  It is not as black and white as some like to think.  It is not, "If we don't draft Luck, we'll be stuck with Orlovsky."  There are so many ridiculous points being thrown that it is simply mind boggling.</div>

[Flash7]

Well of course he's going to take hits, he plays quarterback. He limits the number of hits he takes, you have to at least agree with that.

Agreed.

[mvbighead]

<p></p>

<p> </p>

<p>Apparently you skimmed and got the 50/50s. Allow me to quote myself:</p>

<p> </p>

<p></p>

<p> </p>

<p></p>

<div>

<p></p>

</div>

<div>

<p></p>

</div>

<div>

<p></p>

</div>

<div> </div>

<p>Basically, no one player is a sure thing. Ryan Leaf was selected 2nd overall, and he fizzled quickly. Jamarcus Russel was out in less than a few years. A number of other examples can be pulled from every draft. At best, based on the past 10 years of 1st round QBs, there is a 50/50 shot that Luck does not pan out as all the experts predict.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>The further down the draft you move, the worse the odds tend to get. However, the level of expectation as you move further from the top pick decreases as well, which gives young players time to develop before they hit the field. The Colts often practiced that methodology by drafting solid players, but always allowing veterans to retain starting positions. This happened with Jason David and Nick Harper over Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden. And that may no longer be the philosophy with the new staff, but the fact remains that the lower you go in the draft, the more opportunity the coaching staff has to allow that player to develop before their number is called. With Luck, they're going to need to put him on the field now.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>This team's line is not quite yet capable to support a green QB. Manning has gotten by all these years with exceptional pocket awareness. He knows better than anyone when he should get rid of the ball, and thus our team has always been seen as a pass blocking team. Throw in Curtis Painter, Kerry Collins, or Dan Orlovsky, and the results differ wildly.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>What am I getting at? We cannot expect Luck to succeed behind our line. If Manning leaves, that likely means that Garcon and Wayne are out too. So we'll then have Collie (who is getting close to having a few to many concussions), Gonzalez (who has other injury issues), and Blair White as our remaining receivers. No vertical threats, no jump ball specialists, no studs, just guys who do a good job of catching a perfectly thrown pass when they are healthy enough to be on the field. Honestly, the most reliable of that group has been Blair White.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>But as to drafting in solely in the 7th round, one more time, I'll quote myself:</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p></p>

<div> </div>

<div>All that said, we could stand to improve this team significantly with the demand that other teams have for either RG3 or Luck. If the Falcons gave up a load for a receiver, just imagine what you'd get for a top flight QB prospect.</div>

<div> </div>

<div>In any case, we'll very likely draft Luck, I'm just saying that we have more options. It is not as black and white as some like to think. It is not, "If we don't draft Luck, we'll be stuck with Orlovsky." There are so many ridiculous points being thrown that it is simply mind boggling.</div>

Yikes, no idea what happened here.

[subvet]

I still don't understand this notion people have that having Peyton Manning back will have a negative impact. The vast majority of reports and sources are saying Peyton is looking better and better with each passing week. Some reports have said he looks even a little stronger than he used to be, which makes sense given that one of the positive side effects of the neck fusion surgery is that Peyton will have a greater lateral range in his throwing motions. The fusion as we're all aware was a 100% success, and although his nerve in his neck may only be (what appears to be) somewhere from 70-80%, he has plenty of time to heal. Peyton has been arguably one of the most dedicated and hard working players to ever play the game. He's just as dedicated to his rehab process.

Here is a breakdown of the team's veteran contracts --> http://www.coltsauth...-contracts.html

Freeney eats up most of this year's cap space, and may be willing to restructure a portion of his deal for Mathis, if he deems it necessary. I'm more than willing to wager Peyton is going to be released by the team and then signed right back three days later (when the league year begins with free agency) with an incentive laden, reduced cap contract, probably for 3 or 4 years. At this point, he cares nothing for his salary, largely because he's a triple-digit millionaire. All he'll want is for Pagano to be able to field a good team. Antoine Bethea earned his salary last year, and who knows, he may be willing to restructure a small portion if it allows the team to sign Mathis back. After this we start to dip into the players who are either going to be asked to take a good reduction in their contracts or be cut. These players include Clark, Brackett, Bullitt, Addai, Johnson, and Diles, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Brackett, Addai, Johnson, and Diles all gone. Vinatieri would free up some cap space if cut, but the amount of money saved is miniscule compared to keeping him through 2013. This essentially frees up roughly $15 million, and if the retained players mentioned above take reduced contracts, the team could potentially free up an additional $4-6 million. And, thanks largely to the new collective bargaining agreement, the floor price of the market value for veteran free agents is lowered (which enabled the team to sign Anderson, Brayton and Sims last year at relatively low costs). Fortunately this offseason there is a good stock of veteran defensive and offensive linemen, both of which the Colts will need.

Having a more solid front 7 in the new 3-4 base defense weighs more heavily than having a solid secondary. The pass rush in a 3-4 is designed to confuse and pressure quarterbacks, whereby mistakes are made, routes and snaps are mistimed, and passes are thrown inaccurately. Houston has average safeties and one quality corner in Jonathan Joseph, yet they're top 3 in defensive rankings. Dallas ranked 14th overall in defense and has a secondary almost as worse as the Colts, if not worse. Cleveland had the tenth overall best defense, and only this season did they see their secondary produce playmakers. If Wade Phillips turned Houston around from one of the worst defenses in the league to top 5 in the league, I'm more than willing to side with the idea that Pagano can at least turn the Colts defense around to a top 10 defense.

Excellent analysis for someone with such a flattering photo.....well done.

[LUVTHESHOE]

I cant believe it that this thread keeps going...

It's plan and simple.. If your a colts fan then get on board whith whoever we have at QB next season and stop whining about it and if your not a colts fan then get out.

Thats it, end of story, end of debate.

These threads are more worn out than any dn4192 thread, who would of thought that could ever happen.

[NagelHausForge]

Is there a reason this thread is still open?

[subvet]

Could you also provide a source for Peyton not caring about his salary? It would be nice if this is true, but I haven't seen anything anywhere that Peyton just wants Pagano to be able to field a good team and cares nothing about his salary. It sounds like this is what you think he should think.

Just remembering PMs attitude when he was negotiating his present contract should be source enough that salary isn't as important with him. He took less money than was offered to free some up to keep other key players also in negotiations.

A gesture like that goes a long way in my book, it also tells me he won't be greedy.

[scorptile]

Just remembering PMs attitude when he was negotiating his present contract should be source enough that salary isn't as important with him. He took less money than was offered to free some up to keep other key players also in negotiations.

A gesture like that goes a long way in my book, it also tells me he won't be greedy.

this is what i keep saying to people manning wants to stay and he wants them to field a much better team. but all these luck lovers already have manning playing in a different jersey. also alot have said luck wants to start right away so manning is gone and luck is starting. what im saying is if the colts say luck is sitting on the bench during the transition between manning and him then he is sitting on the bench whether he likes it or not. its not his choice cause he is an employee of the colts if drafted not the other way around. this is what i dont understand when they say luck wont sit he'll play right away. the thing is who says? the colts didnt that is for sure.

[subvet]

Is there a reason this thread is still open?

Because people keep posting to it. If it doesn't interest you then why do you ask the question?

[Ramblinwreck7]

Because people keep posting to it. If it doesn't interest you then why do you ask the question?

good point. If you don't like the thread then don't post in it.

[dgambill]

The title of this topic is terrible. Right now we have Curtis Painter and an unhealthy Peyton Manning signed. QB is definately a need for this team. Starting this year and then into the future. However....that doesn't mean Luck is the only answer. We absolutely will either have to sign back Orvlosky or draft a qb to start the season. If Peyton is deemed to have progressed sufficiently that would weigh heavily on the decision of draft Luck. The team can be structured around the TEAM concept of having more quality players at every location than just having the best qb. Point being we see what putting all our eggs into one basket can result us. Sure we have some good players...definately enough we should have never lost 14 games last season but we can't build our team only around Peyton or Luck. Either could go down or not live up to standards. Heck, Luck could decide in 4 or 5 years that he doesn't want to play here and sign with the 49ers to be back with Harbaugh for all we know. No one knows how committed to our team he will be or his success. We definately have a qb needs but it could be filled in house or in the draft later perhaps and we focus on defense which is the strength of our new coach and gm. There are no gurantees and people should be open to other peoples ideas whether it is cutting Peyton and drafting Luck or trading the pic and loading up on players or keeping both Luck and Peyton. There is no promise any road will get to the Super Bowl for us nor that all the roads won't. At this point everything is speculation and all ideas are equal in possibility (if not probability). Point is being supportive of one another and being supportive of those that have done so much for us already should be a priority.

[Leon]

Just remembering PMs attitude when he was negotiating his present contract should be source enough that salary isn't as important with him. He took less money than was offered to free some up to keep other key players also in negotiations.

A gesture like that goes a long way in my book, it also tells me he won't be greedy.

IMO it tells me she will and should be greedy, he already took the discount for the team, this will be his last big paycheck, and hes guaranteed a certain amount, who should he take a discount again?

with that being said, we cant afford to pay a question mark that much and im in favor of drafting luck, but to say that peyton will take another discount for us is silly to me, he helped us out before, hes guaranteed a certain amount, why should he have to take less?

[scorptile]

The title of this topic is terrible. Right now we have Curtis Painter and an unhealthy Peyton Manning signed. QB is definately a need for this team. Starting this year and then into the future. However....that doesn't mean Luck is the only answer. We absolutely will either have to sign back Orvlosky or draft a qb to start the season. If Peyton is deemed to have progressed sufficiently that would weigh heavily on the decision of draft Luck. The team can be structured around the TEAM concept of having more quality players at every location than just having the best qb. Point being we see what putting all our eggs into one basket can result us. Sure we have some good players...definately enough we should have never lost 14 games last season but we can't build our team only around Peyton or Luck. Either could go down or not live up to standards. Heck, Luck could decide in 4 or 5 years that he doesn't want to play here and sign with the 49ers to be back with Harbaugh for all we know. No one knows how committed to our team he will be or his success. We definately have a qb needs but it could be filled in house or in the draft later perhaps and we focus on defense which is the strength of our new coach and gm. There are no gurantees and people should be open to other peoples ideas whether it is cutting Peyton and drafting Luck or trading the pic and loading up on players or keeping both Luck and Peyton. There is no promise any road will get to the Super Bowl for us nor that all the roads won't. At this point everything is speculation and all ideas are equal in possibility (if not probability). Point is being supportive of one another and being supportive of those that have done so much for us already should be a priority.

hes already said he doesnt wanna play for indy a few times already. even his parents expressed this as well. so in 4-5 years we will be once again looking to getting a QB. so why not build the team anyways. look at the steelers they have a mediocre qb at best and have won two superbowls with him. look at when the patriots won their superbowls tom brady was mediocre at best during that time. eli manning isnt that great of a qb and won two. rogers of the packers isnt as high end as most believe.

all last season all i read was how can this team be so bad without peyton. and we need to build up the team and not just rely on a #1 pick qb. and now all those same people are saying we need luck and he will lead us to greatness. I just dont get why when they said over and over again they dont wanna live through another ten to 15 years of having an elite qb and no team around them to wanting to pick luck and not trade the pick and make a high quality team. ya know a quality team that the giants had twice in 5 years, the packers in 2010, the saints in 2009, steelers in 2008 and 05, colts had a team in 06, the patriots dynasty, the bucs in 02 and the rams in 2000, even the ravens in 99 had a team. teams win championships not elite qb's alone.

[scorptile]

IMO it tells me she will and should be greedy, he already took the discount for the team, this will be his last big paycheck, and hes guaranteed a certain amount, who should he take a discount again?

with that being said, we cant afford to pay a question mark that much and im in favor of drafting luck, but to say that peyton will take another discount for us is silly to me, he helped us out before, hes guaranteed a certain amount, why should he have to take less?

luck is much more greedy then peyton is. if you dont believe me hes already said he doesnt really care to play for the colts. that he wont sit and wants to play, luck is not a team player and if you start getting him guys around him he wont be happy if they are just as greedy as he is. cause his first contract hes gonna want more money then peyton has in his contract right now. i can bet you on that one. peyton at least wants a team to help him win more. its what hes been wanting the past ten years. hes said it on many of occasions. if they tell him you can win another superbowl if we had more cap space i bet you anything hed be like ok lets drop my salary by a few million to help out the team. its cause peyton is a team player.

[Jay Kirk]

Its starting to be known PM will be 100 percent by april,to release him would be both ludicrous and very stupid