the coaching staff just quit.

[CanuckColt]

One of the reasons you punt on 4th & 1 down that many possessions is because you trust your defense more than your offense and if you know your opponent is bad at running the ball, but frankly, I trusted our offense more than our defense and our defense was getting gashed against the runs all game long.

 

Made no sense to me.

Yeah...the defense has really turned to poop for the playoffs.

Our pass-rush is Robert Mathis plus nobody.

[-JJ-]

One of the reasons you punt on 4th & 1 down that many possessions is because you trust your defense more than your offense and if you know your opponent is bad at running the ball, but frankly, I trusted our offense more than our defense and our defense was getting gashed against the runs all game long.

 

Made no sense to me.

true but football still has the reality- 10:30 min left needing 3 possessions to tie. Even if slim chance it remains so .

Not making the 1st down means FG and down 4 scores.

[AllYouNeedIsLuck]

Yeah one thing you never do is give up, ESPECIALLY as a head coach lol. That punt basically gives up.

 

We get that 1 yard and who knows, maybe we score within 2 mins, then stop NE, get a TD, another stop or onside kick, TD. Crazier things have happened. Especially with this group

[superrep1967]

Punting on 4th and 1 down by 21 points? Embarrassing.

That's exactly what I said they gave up. 

[superrep1967]

true but football still has the reality- 10:30 min left needing 3 possessions to tie. Even if slim chance it remains so .

Not making the 1st down means FG and down 4 scores.

That's stupid what you just said

[superrep1967]

I wonder who made that call, I think that had to be a Pagano call

Pagano said he did.

[superrep1967]

That is the head coach's call. If Pagano did not make the call then that is something to worry about.

Have no clue why we did not go for it there. That punt just ended any chance we had.

They just gave up

[superrep1967]

Classic "old school " NFL stupidity. That's just what Bud Grant would have done and some of thses coaches have not evolved from that dull , not so bright mentality. He really belived that he stood a better chance of winning the game by punting there? I hope not...

Pretty stupid if you ask me. I don't which was a dumber decision at the end of the Saints game or Pagano's call both pretty stupid. 

[superrep1967]

I was never a fan of the coaching staff hire to begin with. The only one I was looking forward to was Pep since Luck knows the offense and it was successful at Stanford. And now I can't wait for the Colts to send him packing.

Yeah what about those plays calls on the 2 yard line terrible play calls. 

[superrep1967]

If Pagano thought that then he should be fired.  Defense hadn't stopped them the entire game.  They were conservative the entire game.  Brady could have sat this one out and the Pats would have still won. 

Very true Brady was really no factor. 

[sfergson727]

If Pagano thought that then he should be fired.  Defense hadn't stopped them the entire game.  They were conservative the entire game.  Brady could have sat this one out and the Pats would have still won. 

+100   

[ponyboy]

That's actually the right call and I said they have to punt now after not making it while everyone around me said they'd go for it. I can assure you BB would have punted. 10:30 minutes left can be 3 possessions and with TDs each possession that makes it a tie.

An easy FG if you don't make it on 4th down totally cements the game and that chance for 3 possessions to tie no matter how small is gone.

Its the right football call.

 

Couldn't disagree more.  I think everybody around you was correct.  It was the wrong call and it's not even close, IMO.

 

Down 3 TDs with 10:30 to go, you start the drive knowing you have to score a TD on THIS drive to have any realistic chance.  So, even at the start of the drive they should have been planning on going for it on 4th down all the way down the field unless it was something ridiculous like 4th an 20.   The fact that it was 4th and less than a yard made going for it a no brainer.  My jaw was on the floor when they sent in the punting team.   I think the team deflated at that moment.. realizing it was now over.

[-JJ-]

Couldn't disagree more.  I think everybody around you was correct.  It was the wrong call and it's not even close, IMO.

 

Down 3 TDs with 10:30 to go, you start the drive knowing you have to score a TD on THIS drive to have any realistic chance.  So, even at the start of the drive they should have been planning on going for it on 4th down all the way down the field unless it was something ridiculous like 4th an 20.   The fact that it was 4th and less than a yard made going for it a no brainer.  My jaw was on the floor when they sent in the punting team.   I think the team deflated at that moment.. realizing it was now over.

Yes but that's just not FB- not punting from your own 30 giving the 4th score if you don't make it. Given the odds of getting 3 scores is low but it can happen with 10:30 left and that's what you do in football. Now of course you CAN go for it and gamble to no end.

 

As an opponent fan I yelled they HAVE to punt and people looked at me like. And they punted as I knew they would. Or most any team in that position. Its just smart football. Unless you're just into gambling

[hawkeyes]

Nobody quit..we just arent as good as NE....which I guess we already knew

 

nonsense!   WE are just as good or better than NE ... I said this game would be a toss up, but not because Colts and NE are pretty equal and surely not because NE is a great team, but because we have played DOWN to LESSER teams ALL season long!   The PATS had a super easy schedule this season - they did NOT beat anyone GREAT other than a HUGE comeback win against the Broncos- the Colts beat all the supposed BEST teams in the NFL and we SUCKED against lesser opponents!

 

Fact is we played down to a lesser opponent last night - we stunk up the field and we got smashed for it!  That's MENTAL and NOT physical talent and IMO that equates to poor COACHING!

 

Improvements need to be made if the team is going to move forward!

 

I really miss Bruce Arians - he would be 100x better than PEP!

[coming on strong]

i thought pagano was aggressive when we signed him now he seems more like a john fox

[Stephen]

Punting on 4th and 1 down by 21 points? Embarrassing.

Then they had a nerve to go for it on 4th and 6th on following drive. 

[GoColts8818]

i thought pagano was aggressive when we signed him now he seems more like a john fox

First of all Pagano should have gone for it there.

 

I think most coaches are more conservative than most fans want them to be.  The reason why?  If they gamble and it doesn't work they can get fired over it.  If the fan is wrong they just sit back on their couch till the next time it's time to yell gamble and just pretend like them being wrong never happened. 

 

Again, just to be clear, Pagano should have gone for it there. 

[ponyboy]

Yes but that's just not FB- not punting from your own 30 giving the 4th score if you don't make it. Given the odds of getting 3 scores is low but it can happen with 10:30 left and that's what you do in football. Now of course you CAN go for it and gamble to no end.

 

As an opponent fan I yelled they HAVE to punt and people looked at me like. And they punted as I knew they would. Or most any team in that position. Its just smart football. Unless you're just into gambling

 

You're assuming the Pats would hand the ball back over using no time off the clock.  I see, I didn't consider that angle.

 

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because to me this was a no brainer IN THIS SITUATION.   If we were only down by 10 points I could see the argument.   If it was still the 3rd quarter, I could see the argument.   We were down 3TD with 10:30 remaining and pretty much had to score a TD on that drive to have any realistic chance -- and it was 4th and 1 to boot.    Both punting and failing to convert on 4th down would practically kill any chance of comeback.  Scoring on that drive would have kept a comeback hope alive.

[The Fish]

It was the wrong call, but I don't think it was done to concede the game. 

I'm firmly on the fence with the coaching staff. On one hand, there are things like punting on 4th and 1 down by 21 in a playoff game that make you go "what?". Then there's things like "we're going to be a hard nose defense, and run the ball" which as bland and unproductive as it became for the Colts over the course of the season, it was in fact this squads undoing. Chuck isn't wrong about the formula, he just doesn't have the guys to do it.

[CanuckColt]

.. Our defense is just a mess.

No kidding!  It really showed how bad they are in the playoffs against good teams...K.C. 44 points, N.E. 43 points.

[Flash7]

Coming into the game, everyone knew that we could not be down by a larger margin against the Pats because they would not fold like the Chiefs. After being down by 21, you have to think that the game is OVER, unless you do something to change those odds. By not going for it on 4th and 1, Pagano played right into the Pat's hands. There was virtually no chance for a win after the punt.

It was absolutely the wrong call.

[Flash7]

No kidding!  It really showed how bad they are in the playoffs against good teams...K.C. 44 points, N.E. 43 points.

To be fair, the 7 picks and Trent's fumble didn't help the defense at all.

[dw49]

Yes but that's just not FB- not punting from your own 30 giving the 4th score if you don't make it. Given the odds of getting 3 scores is low but it can happen with 10:30 left and that's what you do in football. Now of course you CAN go for it and gamble to no end.

 

As an opponent fan I yelled they HAVE to punt and people looked at me like. And they punted as I knew they would. Or most any team in that position. Its just smart football. Unless you're just into gambling

 

 

 

  

 

Yes but that's just not FB- not punting from your own 30 giving the 4th score if you don't make it. Given the odds of getting 3 scores is low but it can happen with 10:30 left and that's what you do in football. Now of course you CAN go for it and gamble to no end.

 

As an opponent fan I yelled they HAVE to punt and people looked at me like. And they punted as I knew they would. Or most any team in that position. Its just smart football. Unless you're just into gambling

 

 

 

That's the old school "Bud Grant " type thinking that most of the NFL still plays by. What you leave out is you have to figure the odds of making the 4th and 1 into your equation. Just saying 3 scores is possible and 4 is not doesn't prove your point. I think if a mathematician calculated the odds , he would say the Colts had a better chance of winning by going for it. The fact that the NFL is way behind and most coaches still coach with the "old mentality " doesn't make it right either. I guarantee you Belichick would go for it 100 times out of 100 in that same situation. 

 

 

Furthermore , if you are right , which I don't think you are , the Colts should have ran the ball and 2nd and 3rd down if needed. If your going to punt the ball away on 4th , then get the 1st down on 2nd or 3rd down. So this makes Pagano doubly dumb I guess

[CanuckColt]

i thought pagano was aggressive when we signed him now he seems more like a john fox

Please!  Stop giving Chuck compliments...Fox has experience and can usually manage the game.

Coach Chuck has NOTHING that would make him a head coach...no experience, no ability to prepare his team, no ability to manage the game and make in-game adjustments...just a players' friend with a big tendency to exagerrate (like Trent Richardson is 'a rolling ball of butcher knives').

[dw49]

You're assuming the Pats would hand the ball back over using no time off the clock.  I see, I didn't consider that angle.

 

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because to me this was a no brainer IN THIS SITUATION.   If we were only down by 10 points I could see the argument.   If it was still the 3rd quarter, I could see the argument.   We were down 3TD with 10:30 remaining and pretty much had to score a TD on that drive to have any realistic chance -- and it was 4th and 1 to boot.    Both punting and failing to convert on 4th down would practically kill any chance of comeback.  Scoring on that drive would have kept a comeback hope alive.

 

 

 

Of coarse you are right and guys like Belichick and Rivera are just years ahead of the rest of the league. If you are a baseball fan you will see they are actually starting to use frequency , probabilities and odds into their defensive positioning and pitching techniques. Tampa bay and Pittsburgh made huge strides implementing this. You can't win the game punting and can still win it by going for it. Easy choice but still not as bad as the SD game where Pagano really dunced it up.

 

Also as I just said in another thread ... if you plan on punting on 4th and 1 ... why do you throw the ball downfield on both 2nd and 3rd downs in that series ?

[Maniq]

Way too conservative. We were far behind already - that move (or non-move) made it almost impossible.

[CanuckColt]

To be fair, the 7 picks and Trent's fumble didn't help the defense at all.

Yeah, but a good D would have stiffened and held a lot of those 7s to 3s and 0s.

[jvan1973]

Please! Stop giving Chuck compliments...Fox has experience and can usually manage the game.

Coach Chuck has NOTHING that would make him a head coach...no experience, no ability to prepare his team, no ability to manage the game and make in-game adjustments...just a players' friend with a big tendency to exagerrate (like Trent Richardson is 'a rolling ball of butcher knives').

I'm sure you could do a far better job...

[dudeski]

I'm sure you could do a far better job...

what does that have to do with anything?

[jvan1973]

what does that have to do with anything?

Some fans kill me. They dog a guy that led a team to 11 wins and a playoff victory. Yet cry and say he sucks. Maybe he could go critique the way they make a big mac at their job

[dudeski]

Some fans kill me. They dog a guy that led a team to 11 wins and a playoff victory. Yet cry and say he sucks. Maybe he could go critique the way they make a big mac at their job

don't ever be critical of any football player then.

[colts8718]

no he didn't. i don't agree with punting there, but he did a great job this year

Was not just talking about that one play and by the way after the game he admitted he should have gone for it

[-JJ-]

That's the old school "Bud Grant " type thinking that most of the NFL still plays by. What you leave out is you have to figure the odds of making the 4th and 1 into your equation. Just saying 3 scores is possible and 4 is not doesn't prove your point. I think if a mathematician calculated the odds , he would say the Colts had a better chance of winning by going for it. The fact that the NFL is way behind and most coaches still coach with the "old mentality " doesn't make it right either. I guarantee you Belichick would go for it 100 times out of 100 in that same situation. 

 

 

Furthermore , if you are right , which I don't think you are , the Colts should have ran the ball and 2nd and 3rd down if needed. If your going to punt the ball away on 4th , then get the 1st down on 2nd or 3rd down. So this makes Pagano doubly dumb I guess

Oh I admit its old school and that's what I've seen for years almost without exception.

I think BB punts.  Now if there are 6 minutes left- different story.

 

I realize odds and the 4th down could be higher (assuming it is). But- if you don't make it there is less to zero chance of getting 4 possessions. By punting with 10:30 left you have a guaranteed "chance" of getting 3 possessions. While NE was hard to stop it will be easier with them having a 21 point lead at that point as their play call is going to be predictable.

[-JJ-]

You're assuming the Pats would hand the ball back over using no time off the clock.  I see, I didn't consider that angle.

 

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because to me this was a no brainer IN THIS SITUATION.   If we were only down by 10 points I could see the argument.   If it was still the 3rd quarter, I could see the argument.   We were down 3TD with 10:30 remaining and pretty much had to score a TD on that drive to have any realistic chance -- and it was 4th and 1 to boot.    Both punting and failing to convert on 4th down would practically kill any chance of comeback.  Scoring on that drive would have kept a comeback hope alive.

to a point yes. That's what most teams would do. I admit the Pats might have put the gas on one of the drives. 

 

I mean the whole thing is slim either way. Even if you make the 4th there is no guaranteed it leads to a score. I also admit its old school traditional football but isn't your coach of that mold:)

 

I've never seen a coach go for it on their own 30 (or whatever it was) with that amount of time left.  I think its more a fan wish to go for it rather than logical.

[dw49]

Oh I admit its old school and that's what I've seen for years almost without exception.

I think BB punts.  Now if there are 6 minutes left- different story.

 

I realize odds and the 4th down could be higher (assuming it is). But- if you don't make it there is less to zero chance of getting 4 possessions. By punting with 10:30 left you have a guaranteed "chance" of getting 3 possessions. While NE was hard to stop it will be easier with them having a 21 point lead at that point as their play call is going to be predictable.

 

 

Just because it's game over if you miss doesn't mean punting is correct. I would guess that they have about a 3% chance of scoring 3 TDS in 10 minutes and and 1/2 % or pretty close to zero chance of winning by punting . IMO , it's better to take your last shot there than punt and pretty much have no chance. BB would never punt there. So I guess we disagree as much s we possible could.

[-JJ-]

Just because it's game over if you miss doesn't mean punting is correct. I would guess that they have about a 3% chance of scoring 3 TDS in 10 minutes and and 1/2 % or pretty close to zero chance of winning by punting . IMO , it's better to take your last shot there than punt and pretty much have no chance. BB would never punt there. So I guess we disagree as much s we possible could.

yep- along with Ponyboy we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

But I was right it's the traditional thing to do And I'm still not sure I've seen a coach go for it there. I don't think the coach deserves bad criticism here.

[mintor]

true

[BOTT]

Chuck needs to have a talk with Ron Rivera. This isn't the first time he has made a questionable 4th down call.

[dw49]

yep- along with Ponyboy we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

But I was right it's the traditional thing to do And I'm still not sure I've seen a coach go for it there. I don't think the coach deserves bad criticism here.

 

 

I saw one coach go for it from about the same spot with the lead. He was figuring out his best chance to win he game and came to the conclusion that his best chance was to try for the first down rather than punt. I can't remember his name, I do remember the guy is a lock to be a 1st ballot HOF coach. For the life of me I can't remember the guy's name. Any chance you can help me with it ? I think his first name might have been something like William or Bill......

[dw49]

Chuck needs to have a talk with Ron Rivera. This isn't the first time he has made a questionable 4th down call.

 

 

Yeah.. Ron Rivera is one of the few guys that realize "the book " is absurd in these situations. There really is no book because these guys have no clue as to what the % move in these situations really is. Belichick and Rivera are the only two guys I can think of that have the balls and brains to actually figure out their best chance to win he game. There is just no way that you win that game more times punting than you do going for it. Probably something like if you punt 100 times you never win and you win maybe 2-3 times in 100 if you go for it. By never , I'm saying that it's probably about 1 in 150 times. 

 

 

People think all these coaches are near genius guys. That's so far from the truth it's funny. I remember the Jets hired a guy to help Herm Edwards with clock management. Caldwell for us was another numbskull when it came down to 2 minute decisions. Not saying Pagano is an * but he too has a lot of difficulty in this area of coaching. Mark my words that in the next few years there will be huge changes in this area... similar to what we are now seeing with baseball.