When should I take a QB?

[cjwhiskers]

12-Man PPR League

6 Points Passing, Rec, Rush TD

 

Everything else pretty much standard. 

 

When would you take a QB? I know QB is deep this year but do you think I could last until round 5/6?

 

[Dan]

Make a list of 12 you'd be happy with (shouldn't be hard, my 12th is Stafford) and wait as long as you can. Should be able to make it to the 5th or 6th, but be prepared for a run. 

[IndyTrav]

If its 6pts per passsing TD, you need to take one in the first. Brees or Rodgers would be ideal. 

 

With 6pts per passing TD its no question you cannot get stuck without one of the premier guys, RBs arent worth diddly with this pts system. 

[schwamm]

If its 6pts per passsing TD, you need to take one in the first. Brees or Rodgers would be ideal.

With 6pts per passing TD its no question you cannot get stuck without one of the premier guys, RBs arent worth diddly with this pts system.

Sorry. That is just very bad advice.

[chad72]

If it is 6 pts per TD, you probably won't go wrong with Brees or Rodgers in round 2. But that is the earliest I would take a QB, sorry, round 2 and only for either of those.

 

The others, you can wait it out and go for value because you can play only 1 QB while you can play 3 RBs or 3 WRs if your FLEX allows either. The drop off in QB play is not as huge as the dropoff in RB or WR play once you get past those 2 QBs around round 2.

 

Just my personal opinion.

[IndyTrav]

Sorry. That is just very bad advice.

Not hardly. 

 

In a 6pt per pass TD, Brees put up 448 pts.....AP had an all time great season, and had 310....Thats over 10pts a GAME...and you can get lucky and grab  Alfred Morris (5th RB) off the Waiver Wire, CJ Spiller (8th RB) in the 11th round, or Stevan Ridley (9th RB) off the WW. Or Even Doug Martin (2nd) in the 4/5th round.... 

 

The difference between the first and 5th QB, was 78pts (Cam was 5th, and dude had 8 rushing TDs).....The difference between the top 11 RBs was 64pts(The diff between the 1st QB and 11th QB was 130pts)......That is absurd.

 

 

You have zero idea as to what RBs will 'breakout'. The position is to dangerous. Where as QBs are a sure thing. History tells us, that 5 of last years Top 10 RBs, will not be in the top 5 this year....Do not take the chance. 

 

Its PPR, Take Rodgers, then turn around and grab a guy like Sproles, who had 75rec last yr in less than 13games, in the 3rd...grab Reggie Bush. Sproles. Forte who can all be had in the 2nd or later. Even guys like Ray Rice and Mccoy have a chance to fall out of the top 12.

 

DO NOT RISK NOT HAVING A TOP QB IN THIS FORMAT!

[schwamm]

Not hardly.

In a 6pt per pass TD, Brees put up 448 pts.....AP had an all time great season, and had 310....Thats over 10pts a GAME...and you can get lucky and grab Alfred Morris (5th RB) off the Waiver Wire, CJ Spiller (8th RB) in the 11th round, or Stevan Ridley (9th RB) off the WW. Or Even Doug Martin (2nd) in the 4/5th round....

The difference between the first and 5th QB, was 78pts (Cam was 5th, and dude had 8 rushing TDs).....The difference between the top 11 RBs was 64pts(The diff between the 1st QB and 11th QB was 130pts)......That is absurd.

You have zero idea as to what RBs will 'breakout'. The position is to dangerous. Where as QBs are a sure thing. History tells us, that 5 of last years Top 10 RBs, will not be in the top 5 this year....Do not take the chance.

Its PPR, Take Rodgers, then turn around and grab a guy like Sproles, who had 75rec last yr in less than 13games, in the 3rd...grab Reggie Bush. Sproles. Forte who can all be had in the 2nd or later. Even guys like Ray Rice and Mccoy have a chance to fall out of the top 12.

DO NOT RISK NOT HAVING A TOP QB IN THIS FORMAT!

This is a way overly simplistic view, and while you may find occasional success, it is NOT the way to consistently build a winning team. I don't care that QBs score more than RBs. The drop off in scoring is FAR greater from RB1 to RB24 than from QB1 to QB12, and RB 24 is likely to be gone by end of round 4, where QB12 likely won't be off the board until end of 7.

You say 2 things that are contradicting your own point. First, you say that RBs are risky. They absolutely are, and that is exactly why you need to grab the least risky ones early, and grab as many of the top ones as possible just to survive a season. Second, you say QBs are a sure thing. Again, I agree. But why waste an early pick when you can get 90% as good 6 rounds later?

Grabbing QBs early is BAD VALUE, which directly translates to lower overall scoring potential.

[MrNLM]

Schwamm knows whats up. For the past two season I have been waiting on QB for as long as I think I can. In the past two seasons I have won 10 championships and finished as runner up in 4. I am a sucker for drafting with AT LEAST one trade in mind and the only way to do that is to fill up on good RBs and WRs.

 

Wait if you can, bro.

[IndyTrav]

This is a way overly simplistic view, and while you may find occasional success, it is NOT the way to consistently build a winning team. I don't care that QBs score more than RBs. The drop off in scoring is FAR greater from RB1 to RB24 than from QB1 to QB12, and RB 24 is likely to be gone by end of round 4, where QB12 likely won't be off the board until end of 7.

You say 2 things that are contradicting your own point. First, you say that RBs are risky. They absolutely are, and that is exactly why you need to grab the least risky ones early, and grab as many of the top ones as possible just to survive a season. Second, you say QBs are a sure thing. Again, I agree. But why waste an early pick when you can get 90% as good 6 rounds later?

Grabbing QBs early is BAD VALUE, which directly translates to lower overall scoring potential.

 

 

The drop off is that great? Thats weird, because in this scoring format the drop off from QB 1 to QB25 is 243 pts...the drop off from RB2-25 is 148pts.....Over a 100pt difference, in the QBs favor. 

 

The 24th Rb is going in round 4? What league are you playing in?! The 24th ranked yahoo RB, is going in the 9th rd. And its Sproles (wont happen in PPR).....After guys like CJ2K, MJD, Ridley, RBs fall off a cliff. And those guys are going in the late 2nd early 3rd...

 

2 things would help with this debate....Is there a flex? Is it wr/wr/rb/rb...or wr/wr/wr/rb/b etc...And is this league new, or was it in existence last year? Who made the playoffs? What did the playoff teams look like? Who won?

 

 

 

But for me, assuming picking in the mid/late 1st...I would gladly take a team of Rodgers/BMarshall/Lamar Miller/Reggie Bush (Sproles) in the first 4 rounds of a PPR/6pt PassTD league.....More than a Spiller/Forte/ Cobb/Wilson.....

 

I would go with a stud QB (Brees, Rodgers) in the late first no problem. Or grab a Peyton/Ryan/Brady in the 2nd....I would not let a potential 30+pass TD QB leave my hands. There are only 5 with a realistic shot, maybe 6......

 

Frankly now that I think of it, I would love a TRich/Peyton(ryan,brady) combo in the late first/2nd   

[chad72]

 

I would not let a potential 30+pass TD QB leave my hands. There are only 5 with a realistic shot, maybe 6......

 

 

I am hoping Romo is that 30+ pass TD QB this year and I got him in round 6.

[schwamm]

The drop off is that great? Thats weird, because in this scoring format the drop off from QB 1 to QB25 is 243 pts...the drop off from RB2-25 is 148pts.....Over a 100pt difference, in the QBs favor.

The 24th Rb is going in round 4? What league are you playing in?! The 24th ranked yahoo RB, is going in the 9th rd. And its Sproles (wont happen in PPR).....After guys like CJ2K, MJD, Ridley, RBs fall off a cliff. And those guys are going in the late 2nd early 3rd...

2 things would help with this debate....Is there a flex? Is it wr/wr/rb/rb...or wr/wr/wr/rb/b etc...And is this league new, or was it in existence last year? Who made the playoffs? What did the playoff teams look like? Who won?

But for me, assuming picking in the mid/late 1st...I would gladly take a team of Rodgers/BMarshall/Lamar Miller/Reggie Bush (Sproles) in the first 4 rounds of a PPR/6pt PassTD league.....More than a Spiller/Forte/ Cobb/Wilson.....

I would go with a stud QB (Brees, Rodgers) in the late first no problem. Or grab a Peyton/Ryan/Brady in the 2nd....I would not let a potential 30+pass TD QB leave my hands. There are only 5 with a realistic shot, maybe 6......

Frankly now that I think of it, I would love a TRich/Peyton(ryan,brady) combo in the late first/2nd

How many QBs is your league starting? Assuming a 12 team league, I am comparing 12 QBs to 24 RBs, because that is what is required to fill starting roles. If there is a flex or 3rd RB, it strengthens my position.

I forget that there is seemingly a bias towards Yahoo on this forum. Not a fan, but to each their own. On Rotoworld, NFL, ESPN, Fox, and multiple other sites, the 24th RB is going in the range of pick 46 - 53, from what I've been seeing. Even if you are seeing it a round or 2 later, the math still holds up. You lose more by going QB early than you do with RB.

BTW, this was even the case in 2011, when you had Rodgers and Brees lap the QB field, and RB production was at a relative low point.

And that doesn't begin to address the fact that you don't often need a backup for your QB (other than for 1 week), but will seldom survive a FF season without AT LEAST 2 backup RBs, regardless of byes. I could argue you should be comparing 12 QBs to 48 RBs with more than a little merit.

[IndyTrav]

I am hoping Romo is that 30+ pass TD QB this year and I got him in round 6.

That's exactly who I was thinking of as maybe the 6th qb who can do it.

Do you play in a 6pt Pass TD league? Because I am assuming that Romo was at least the 7th/8th QB taken, and you got him in the 6th. That tells me ALOT of QBs were taken Brady manning Rodgers Brees Kap newton Ryan. Maybe stafford rg3 Wilson luck.

[chad72]

That's exactly who I was thinking of as maybe the 6th qb who can do it.

Do you play in a 6pt Pass TD league? Because I am assuming that Romo was at least the 7th/8th QB taken, and you got him in the 6th. That tells me ALOT of QBs were taken Brady manning Rodgers Brees Kap newton Ryan. Maybe stafford rg3 Wilson luck.

 

Yes, I do play in a 6 pt pass TD league, it is one of the Colts forum leagues.

[chad72]

Here you go, a yahoo primer article on QB depth this year:

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/position-primer-unprecedented-depth-qb-sparks-intriguing-draft-165456912.html

 

I don't feel so bad now taking Romo in round 6 and Michael Vick in round 10.

[buccolts]

That's exactly who I was thinking of as maybe the 6th qb who can do it.

Do you play in a 6pt Pass TD league? Because I am assuming that Romo was at least the 7th/8th QB taken, and you got him in the 6th. That tells me ALOT of QBs were taken Brady manning Rodgers Brees Kap newton Ryan. Maybe stafford rg3 Wilson luck.

 

I picked up Romo with the last pick of the 7th last night.

All QBs were taken by the end of the 4th, and I noticed I was the last one to take a QB, so I waited a couple of rounds expecting to take one before others started thinking about their back ups.

And, yeah, all those QBs were taken ahead of Romo.

12 Team league, 6 pts per TD pass.

[Juanjo]

You can take guys like Stafford, Romo or Wilson in 6th round, one of them usually is also waiting for you in 7th round. Even if those are gone you can play matchups with Vick, Eli, Freeman...

 

No reason to pick a QB soon if you prefer stacking WRs and RBs. Just try to get the most possible value in all your picks.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I picked up Romo with the last pick of the 7th last night.

All QBs were taken by the end of the 4th, and I noticed I was the last one to take a QB, so I waited a couple of rounds expecting to take one before others started thinking about their back ups.

And, yeah, all those QBs were taken ahead of Romo.

12 Team league, 6 pts per TD pass.

That was darn good strategy, well done.  Romo could be a top 3 QB this year.

[T Y Goodbye]

It also depends somewhat on your draft position. In my league, I had the 1st pick, and of course I took AP..In a 12 man league, I dont pick again until last of the 2nd and first on the 3rd. Brees was still available, so I took him with the last pick of the 2nd, and got Brandon Marshall with the 1st in round 3...There is too big a gap between picks not to take an elite QB in that scenario. I still have 4 quality RB's and 4 good receivers, and I got one of the top TE's in Gonzalez...if I had picked anywhere from 4th-9th pick, I would have waited on a QB like Romo.

 

In my case I have the top RB, QB, and top 5 receiver with my first 3 picks..

 

Though in most cases, I agree with what most of you are saying in trying to wait as long as you can before picking up a QB..having the #1 pick, I wasn't taking a chance this year..

 

Just my 2 cents

[SilentHill]

In a yahoo default league with the only change is 6 points for QB TD

 

Brees & Rodgers are king. (In that order)

[buccolts]

It also depends somewhat on your draft position. In my league, I had the 1st pick, and of course I took AP..In a 12 man league, I dont pick again until last of the 2nd and first on the 3rd. Brees was still available, so I took him with the last pick of the 2nd, and got Brandon Marshall with the 1st in round 3...There is too big a gap between picks not to take an elite QB in that scenario. I still have 4 quality RB's and 4 good receivers, and I got one of the top TE's in Gonzalez...if I had picked anywhere from 4th-9th pick, I would have waited on a QB like Romo.

 

In my case I have the top RB, QB, and top 5 receiver with my first 3 picks..

 

Though in most cases, I agree with what most of you are saying in trying to wait as long as you can before picking up a QB..having the #1 pick, I wasn't taking a chance this year..

 

Just my 2 cents

 

I agree with you. I was 12th, and I paid for waiting a couple of times.

Wish I could do it over again, but you never know.

Heck, look what TK did (PM with the #2), and as much as we poked fun of him for it, he could end up shining.

It can be a carp shoot either way. 

Injuries pay a toll, and playing the waiver wire is key.

[T Y Goodbye]

I agree with you. I was 12th, and I paid for waiting a couple of times.

Wish I could do it over again, but you never know.

Heck, look what TK did (PM with the #2), and as much as we poked fun of him for it, he could end up shining.

It can be a carp shoot either way. 

Injuries pay a toll, and playing the waiver wire is key.

 

So you're the one that stole TY before I could get him....j/k..but I did get burned waiting to get him..but I'm satisfied with my picks. I actually wanted to take Graham with my 3rd pick to go along with Brees, but then I wouldn't have Marshall..can't have everything you want...

 

And taking a superstar QB like Peyton..is never bad in my book...even if TK did it a tad early..lol...He really came back and made his a nice draft..

 

but the gap if you pick top 3 and bottom 3 are so far apart you just cant afford to wait..

 

I wish the season was starting now that I have my team...I cant wait to start playing...now the wait is really killing me...lol

[buccolts]

So you're the one that stole TY before I could get him....j/k..but I did get burned waiting to get him..but I'm satisfied with my picks. I actually wanted to take Graham with my 3rd pick to go along with Brees, but then I wouldn't have Marshall..can't have everything you want...

 

And taking a superstar QB like Peyton..is never bad in my book...even if TK did it a tad early..lol...He really came back and made his a nice draft..

 

but the gap if you pick top 3 and bottom 3 are so far apart you just cant afford to wait..

 

I wish the season was starting now that I have my team...I cant wait to start playing...now the wait is really killing me...lol

 

Yeah, it's going to be fun either way.

And, sorry about TY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

not really  

[pacolts56]

In a 6pts per TD pass / flex league, I got Matt Ryan (5th rd) and Josh Freeman (11th rd).....and that was AFTER taking Marshawn Lynch, Steven Ridley, Vincent Jackson and David Wilson (flex).

 

I'd much prefer this to chasing RBs in a "flex" league because of selecting Rodgers or Brees in the first round....even as good as they are.

 

 

[T Y Goodbye]

I think I did ok with Brees at the end of the second..and Brandon Marshall in the 3rd. I still got AP, and picked up Eddie Lacy, Chris Ivory, and Montee Ball. Ivory will be the feature back in the Jets offense , Lacy in Green Bay, and Ball should get the majority of goal line attempts while splitting time with Hillman,and Moreno is still nursing injuries.

 

I would definitely have drafted different if, as I said in previous posts, I wasn't in the top 3 in the draft...I would have gone RB, RB, and possibly RB if I picked in the middle.The way I picked, I got the #1 ranked RB and QB, and the #3 WR.

 

You had a good draft pa..I guess its all in how you choose to attempt it..that's what makes it so much fun.

[pacolts56]

I think I did ok with Brees at the end of the second..and Brandon Marshall in the 3rd. I still got AP, and picked up Eddie Lacy, Chris Ivory, and Montee Ball. Ivory will be the feature back in the Jets offense , Lacy in Green Bay, and Ball should get the majority of goal line attempts while splitting time with Hillman,and Moreno is still nursing injuries.

 

I would definitely have drafted different if, as I said in previous posts, I wasn't in the top 3 in the draft...I would have gone RB, RB, and possibly RB if I picked in the middle.The way I picked, I got the #1 ranked RB and QB, and the #3 WR.

 

You had a good draft pa..I guess its all in how you choose to attempt it..that's what makes it so much fun.

You did great CF4L....a 1-2-3 pick of AP, Brees and Marshall is about as good as it gets for RB/QB/WR and you still back-filled the RB spots nicely. And Cincy's defense looks like it could be a turnover machine.

 

Anyway I like this draft a whole lot better than last year's, when I passed up Marshawn Lynch for Larry Fitzgerald. That colossal 1st round blunder had me chasing RBs literally the entire season....and my record suffered for it.

[ReMeDy]

Last season I waited until the 5th round to pick (wait for it... ) Matt Ryan. He ended up having the best fantasy value for a QB by far. The year after that I waited until round 6th and got Ben Roethlisberger. Not as good of a pick, but nothing to scoff at either.

 

This season, I will again sit until the 5th-6th round. Unless someone *ically doesn't take a top-tier QB, my hope is to get either Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, or RGIII. I may also get EJ Manuel in free agency. He looks really good right now. What I love about these QB's is they're undervalued,  can scramble, and have a solid supporting cast who aren't afraid to pass the ball. I'd prefer to lock in Marshawn Lynche early so that if I do take Wilson, I cover my tracks in case Wilson decides not to pass the ball a certain game or if, heaven forbid, he gets injured or has a sophmore slump.

[Narcosys]

Neither Brees nor Rodgers were drafted in the 1st two rounds in my draft.  3rd and 4th there was a run.