For those projecting we trade down in 2013

[ztboiler]

Many seem to think we'll be part of deal trading down to add a 2nd rounder among other picks. Might as well look at last year's trades (probably would be good to look at other year's too) to get an idea of what is realistic. http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7854788/trade-tracker

The only trades involving 2nd rounders were teams trading out of the top 10. You can pick up a 3rd by trading down beyond the top 10, but not a 2nd, and you might have to be in the top 6-8 to have a position where teams will part with a 2nd. We may very well end up drafting that high, but I like our chances to get 7 wins or better and be drafting about 12th. No 2nd rounder in that scenario. I also don't see us trading out of the top 10 if we are drafting that high. As much as we need more talent, we need impact talent even more, and I don't think Grigson will give up impact if it is available. We aren't a team with the impact spots locked down already....so there is a good chance that one of the impact players in the top 10 looks good on our roster.

For the moment, draft scenarios involving the acquisition of a 2nd rounder look very unlikely to me....which pretty much guarantees that we'll acquire one!

[chad72]

Many seem to think we'll be part of deal trading down to add a 2nd rounder among other picks. Might as well look at last year's trades (probably would be good to look at other year's too) to get an idea of what is realistic. http://espn.go.com/n...8/trade-tracker

The only trades involving 2nd rounders were teams trading out of the top 10. You can pick up a 3rd by trading down beyond the top 10, but not a 2nd, and you might have to be in the top 6-8 to have a position where teams will part with a 2nd. We may very well end up drafting that high, but I like our chances to get 7 wins or better and be drafting about 12th. No 2nd rounder in that scenario. I also don't see us trading out of the top 10 if we are drafting that high. As much as we need more talent, we need impact talent even more, and I don't think Grigson will give up impact if it is available. We aren't a team with the impact spots locked down already....so there is a good chance that one of the impact players in the top 10 looks good on our roster.

For the moment, draft scenarios involving the acquisition of a 2nd rounder look very unlikely to me....which pretty much guarantees that we'll acquire one!

I agree.

What we do know is that the Raiders have two second round picks, thanks to the Carson Palmer trade, their 2nd round pick and the Bengals 2nd round pick. We can move up from the 3rd round to the second Raiders' 2nd round pick giving up a 3rd and a future 4th to get a 2nd round pick if we feel strongly about that player in the 2nd round.

Otherwise, we stand pat - 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th round picks is all we have.

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Years/2013.htm

[NewColtsFan]

I agree.

What we do know is that the Raiders have two second round picks, thanks to the Carson Palmer trade, their 2nd round pick and the Bengals 2nd round pick. We can move up from the 3rd round to the second Raiders' 2nd round pick giving up a 3rd and a future 4th to get a 2nd round pick if we feel strongly about that player in the 2nd round.

Otherwise, we stand pat - 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th round picks is all we have.

http://www.prosports.../Years/2013.htm

It's not clear if we have a #6 any more. We reportedly gave up a #6 in the Davis trade.... whether it's in 2013 or 2014 is not clear. But it's possible all we have is a #1, #3 and a #4.

[NewColtsFan]

Many seem to think we'll be part of deal trading down to add a 2nd rounder among other picks. Might as well look at last year's trades (probably would be good to look at other year's too) to get an idea of what is realistic. http://espn.go.com/n...8/trade-tracker

The only trades involving 2nd rounders were teams trading out of the top 10. You can pick up a 3rd by trading down beyond the top 10, but not a 2nd, and you might have to be in the top 6-8 to have a position where teams will part with a 2nd. We may very well end up drafting that high, but I like our chances to get 7 wins or better and be drafting about 12th. No 2nd rounder in that scenario. I also don't see us trading out of the top 10 if we are drafting that high. As much as we need more talent, we need impact talent even more, and I don't think Grigson will give up impact if it is available. We aren't a team with the impact spots locked down already....so there is a good chance that one of the impact players in the top 10 looks good on our roster.

For the moment, draft scenarios involving the acquisition of a 2nd rounder look very unlikely to me....which pretty much guarantees that we'll acquire one!

Great post, ZT... and I say that as someone who is fully expecting a trade down. I think I'm the leading proponent of trading down.

Even if we can't get a #2 we need to trade down. I'd even say we almost HAVE to trade down. We simply can't go through a 3-day draft with just 3 picks.

So, if all we pick up are other 3's and 4's and 5's and 6's... I'm totally fine with that. Grigson has shown he can find talent in those rounds.

But we have to do it. We have so, so many needs. Just getting 3 good players doesn't cut it. Not even close.

And I'll even add this.... let's say we're picking 12th, as you project. And let's say at 12 is a player that Grigson flat-out LOVES and has rated much higher on his board --- that can happen. Then I'd say stay at 12 and take that player.

But then you HAVE to trade back in both the 3rd and 4th rounds, and pick-up other 4's, 5's and 6's.... You don't have to trade **out** of the 3rd and 4th rounds, but you would have to trade down **lower** in each round and collect additional picks.

Absolutely, positively, have to.....

[chad72]

Great post, ZT... and I say that as someone who is fully expecting a trade down. I think I'm the leading proponent of trading down.

Even if we can't get a #2 we need to trade down. I'd even say we almost HAVE to trade down. We simply can't go through a 3-day draft with just 3 picks.

We can trade down from our 3rd round pick to get a No.4 and a No.5 easily, and so on...not with our first round pick if it is in the middle of round 1, IMO for the impact player reasons that ZT mentioned.

[ztboiler]

Great post, ZT... and I say that as someone who is fully expecting a trade down. I think I'm the leading proponent of trading down.

Even if we can't get a #2 we need to trade down. I'd even say we almost HAVE to trade down. We simply can't go through a 3-day draft with just 3 picks.

So, if all we pick up are other 3's and 4's and 5's and 6's... I'm totally fine with that. Grigson has shown he can find talent in those rounds.

But we have to do it. We have so, so many needs. Just getting 3 good players doesn't cut it. Not even close.

And I'll even add this.... let's say we're picking 12th, as you project. And let's say at 12 is a player that Grigson flat-out LOVES and has rated much higher on his board --- that can happen. Then I'd say stay at 12 and take that player.

But then you HAVE to trade back in both the 3rd and 4th rounds, and pick-up other 4's, 5's and 6's.... You don't have to trade **out** of the 3rd and 4th rounds, but you would have to trade down **lower** in each round and collect additional picks.

Absolutely, positively, have to.....

Thanks for the feedback and follow up thoughts - good thoughts. The concepts of how how to acquire the talent you need to win in the NFL are indeed fascinating...much more so to me than projecting individual players that are such a moving target.

As for the "have to's" of trading down - I see its merits but believe it is always opportunistic to a good GM not a fundamental strategy. I think that Grigson rightly sees next year's draft as including what he already has this year from it and doesn't feel any undue pressure to alter his approach - though knowing that opportunities to do so will likely be available. The reverse logic of TY Hilton applies at this juncture. Just as he gave up next year's 5th to assure that he'd get him, he'd never take a 5th to drop down a few spots and risk losing TY Hilton (equivalent) when in position to take him. You have to be that principled in such a high pressure business in order to survive.

Because of free agency there just isn't any artificial pressure to replace the back end of your draft, but I share your hope that trade down opportunities will present themselves - primarily because extra 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks are the perfect place to grab 2 more developing O linemen in addition a starting RT and RG from free agency.

[NewColtsFan]

Many seem to think we'll be part of deal trading down to add a 2nd rounder among other picks. Might as well look at last year's trades (probably would be good to look at other year's too) to get an idea of what is realistic. http://espn.go.com/n...8/trade-tracker

The only trades involving 2nd rounders were teams trading out of the top 10. You can pick up a 3rd by trading down beyond the top 10, but not a 2nd, and you might have to be in the top 6-8 to have a position where teams will part with a 2nd. We may very well end up drafting that high, but I like our chances to get 7 wins or better and be drafting about 12th. No 2nd rounder in that scenario. I also don't see us trading out of the top 10 if we are drafting that high. As much as we need more talent, we need impact talent even more, and I don't think Grigson will give up impact if it is available. We aren't a team with the impact spots locked down already....so there is a good chance that one of the impact players in the top 10 looks good on our roster.

For the moment, draft scenarios involving the acquisition of a 2nd rounder look very unlikely to me....which pretty much guarantees that we'll acquire one!

Hold on.... wait a minute... I'm not re-reading ZT's last paragraph... Just how does one think we'll acquire a 2nd round pick without trading down? Which player on our current roster is going to fetch a 2nd round pick?

From my perspective, his overall post just contradicted itself. He made the majority of the post saying we're not trading down to acquire a 2nd round pick only to say we're he guarantee's we're going to acquire one.

HUH?!?

I look forward to this explanation....

[Gavin]

He was using the sentence in a joking manner from what it appears to me, he is saying he dont think it will happen BUT since he said he said it wont likely happen (that watch it happen now). that appears to me what he is saying. Personally IF we are drafting inside the top 10 I can see it happening

[ztboiler]

Hold on.... wait a minute... I'm not re-reading ZT's last paragraph... Just how does one think we'll acquire a 2nd round pick without trading down? Which player on our current roster is going to fetch a 2nd round pick?

From my perspective, his overall post just contradicted itself. He made the majority of the post saying we're not trading down to acquire a 2nd round pick only to say we're he guarantee's we're going to acquire one.

HUH?!?

I look forward to this explanation....

Gavin is correct....it was completely tongue in cheek on the contradiction.

[NewColtsFan]

Gavin is correct....it was completely tongue in cheek on the contradiction.

Thanks.... I knew something didn't seem quite right....

Thanks for clearing that up for me... we old timers aren't quite as sharp as you young whipper-snappers!

[Elmo]

I agree.

What we do know is that the Raiders have two second round picks, thanks to the Carson Palmer trade, their 2nd round pick and the Bengals 2nd round pick. We can move up from the 3rd round to the second Raiders' 2nd round pick giving up a 3rd and a future 4th to get a 2nd round pick if we feel strongly about that player in the 2nd round.

Otherwise, we stand pat - 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 6th round picks is all we have.

http://www.prosports.../Years/2013.htm

Shouldn't we get quite a few compensation picks?

[coltsguy510]

Problem with this thread for me is that I think we pick around 7 or 8.

[coltsguy510]

I wouldn't mind even trading down from 8 to 15, get a second, pick Warmack and than trade back into the first and picking Jonathan Jenkins NT. Jenkins is a mountain.

[NewColtsFan]

I wouldn't mind even trading down from 8 to 15, get a second, pick Warmack and than trade back into the first and picking Jonathan Jenkins NT. Jenkins is a mountain.

The problem with trading back up to the 1st is that the cost is a premium. What do you trade to get back up to the first?

If you trade down and pick up the 2nd -- fine. Then what? You offer a 2nd and a what to get back up? This is much easier said than done.

And since we have so many needs I don't think this is the draft to trade up in. I'd be fine if we traded down in all 3 rounds that we currently have. Trade down in the 1st. Trade down in the 3rd and the 4th. You'll pick up draft choices and make the rebuilding process that much better.

Or, at least, that's the theory behind doing that!

[Gavin]

Geathers is even bigger if we are talking size, 6'"6 350, I got NT on my priority list but not above G, T, OLB, I expect the combination of Chapman when he returns and has had some time in the system and Johnson as well as Baptiste to be very good, Im not opposed to Tevasue backing up either Redding or Moala either

[haseo15]

Jarvis Jones OLB has moved up to the top spot on Kiper's big board. Do you still trade back if we have a chance to take him for a chace at an Offensive line prospect?

[Gavin]

sure do, I bet we can get Devin Taylor as late as the 3rd, protecting Luck comes first to me and I want to do that with top talent in the draft

[coltsfanatic24]

if we have a top 10 pick i think we keep it and draft the best defensive player available. i don't think grigson is sold on powers as a true man cover corner so i believe will draft xavier rhodes with the 12th pick.

[funktacious2]

It really just depends where we are at. If we are a top 5 pick it's more than plausible to get a good deal, but I wouldn't want to trade a top 5 pick (unless its 1-2).

[throwing BBZ]

Shouldn't we get quite a few compensation picks?

Yes we will, there is some serious knuckleheadedness going on here.

[BProland85]

I wouldn't mind even trading down from 8 to 15, get a second, pick Warmack and than trade back into the first and picking Jonathan Jenkins NT. Jenkins is a mountain.

I posted that we should do this earlier, but I think I targeted SS Kenny Vacarro instead of Jenkins with our 2nd round pick. I think Warmack can be had around 18-25 so if we can trade down to that, acquire an extra 2nd and possibly more, we should be in good shape.

I think OL and SS our the biggest needs since Zbikowski hasnt been a presence yet. When Chapman comes back, if he doesnt show promise, then I agree that Jenkins would be a good pick to give us our NT.

[BProland85]

Jarvis Jones OLB has moved up to the top spot on Kiper's big board. Do you still trade back if we have a chance to take him for a chace at an Offensive line prospect?

If Jarvis Jones or Barkevious Mingo is available I think we consider them unless Hughes shows promise along with Addison this year. If they turn out to be busts, then we need another DE/OLB other than Mathis. Freeney will be gone next year and frankly should be.

[NewColtsFan]

If Jarvis Jones or Barkevious Mingo is available I think we consider them unless Hughes shows promise along with Addison this year. If they turn out to be busts, then we need another DE/OLB other than Mathis. Freeney will be gone next year and frankly should be.

Mingo **may** be available, Jones not so much. He's just been moved up to #1 overall prospect for both Kiper and McShay. They may or may not be right, but it's not likely that they're both far off. So, I don't see Jones falling far from the top and will likely be taken before we pick.

[Gavin]

I like the scenario if we pick 8th to drop down a couple spots while picking up a 2nd

[ALuck>RG3]

lets say we got 12 then just trdae back to lets say 25 and pick up a 2nd and draft a good lineman

[DarkHorseColts]

It's not clear if we have a #6 any more. We reportedly gave up a #6 in the Davis trade.... whether it's in 2013 or 2014 is not clear. But it's possible all we have is a #1, #3 and a #4.

It looks like the 6th and 7th rounders next year are both conditional... so the Colts could potentially still have both come Draft time. Or neither. Or either

[Vltrophy1]

Many seem to think we'll be part of deal trading down to add a 2nd rounder among other picks. Might as well look at last year's trades (probably would be good to look at other year's too) to get an idea of what is realistic. http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7854788/trade-tracker

The only trades involving 2nd rounders were teams trading out of the top 10. You can pick up a 3rd by trading down beyond the top 10, but not a 2nd, and you might have to be in the top 6-8 to have a position where teams will part with a 2nd. We may very well end up drafting that high, but I like our chances to get 7 wins or better and be drafting about 12th. No 2nd rounder in that scenario. I also don't see us trading out of the top 10 if we are drafting that high. As much as we need more talent, we need impact talent even more, and I don't think Grigson will give up impact if it is available. We aren't a team with the impact spots locked down already....so there is a good chance that one of the impact players in the top 10 looks good on our roster.

For the moment, draft scenarios involving the acquisition of a 2nd rounder look very unlikely to me....which pretty much guarantees that we'll acquire one!

so are u expecting us to suck this yr or what? I'd rather have pick #32 myself. Packers won't trade up to the top 10-15 as we have to re-sign our big 3.

[Jackie Daytona]

1st, 3rd, 4th rd. picks, and some likely compensation picks will be sufficient. We can draft an impact skill guy in the first hopefully, WR, T, NT, LB..... decent rotation players or a starting G in the 3rd-4th...... then fill the holes with more cap space than I ever remember any team in the league having in one offseason.... seriously.... we have THIS(...................................................................................................................................) much cap space

[NewColtsFan]

1st, 3rd, 4th rd. picks, and some likely compensation picks will be sufficient. We can draft an impact skill guy in the first hopefully, WR, T, NT, LB..... decent rotation players or a starting G in the 3rd-4th...... then fill the holes with more cap space than I ever remember any team in the league having in one offseason.... seriously.... we have THIS(...................................................................................................................................) much cap space

Remember, when you have this (_____________________________________________________) much cap space, there also needs to be this (__________________________________________________________________) many quality players available to buy in Free Agency. And the early list of available players is just not that impressive. Now, that may chance between now and late April when the draft rolls around.... but it's not a great looking list as of now.

Also, the speculation right now is that we'll get one compensatory pick, 4th/5th round for Garcon. That's it.

So, we're looking at a 1, 3, 4, of our own and another pick. That's not a lot. Not for what this team needs.

All I'm saying is we won't solve all our problems and issues in one more off-season. Not even with all that money to spend.

[Jackie Daytona]

It won't matter if there are pro bowlers, stars, quality players, or average guys available....... we will be able to get better Oline help via Free Agency. and yes, there will be names available we can use. It doesn't matter where we upgrade really, our overall talent level could be raised and wouldn't hurt a thing

[Jackie Daytona]

Surely there are plenty of talent upgrades in Free Agency this year. This is just a short list of guys who might be able to come in and make a difference, or at least help more than what we have now. This is not even everyone available, not to mention cuts in the offseason and during camp...... you still think that cap space won't be enough help to offset giving up several draft picks?

Javon Ringer, Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene at RB if we still want a big powerful running game....

Greg Jones, Ovie Mughelli at FB....... see above

Dwayne Bowe, Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace, etc. at WR

Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah, Jake Long, at OT

Ryan Lilja, Brandon Moore, Phil Costa, Andy Levitre at OG

Paul Kruger, Connor Barwin, Robert Gathers, Marcus Dixon, at DE Lots of 3-4 DE's available

Henry Melton, Glenn Dorsey, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor, Terrence Knighton, Sedrick Ellis, Alan Branch, Isaac Sopoaga, at DT

Darryl Smith, Erin Henderson, Shaun Phillips, Travis LaBoy, Shawne Merriman, Demorrio Williams at OLB

Rey Maualuga, Will Witherspoon, Paris Lennon, Rob Francis, at MLB

Dominique Foxworth, Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Sam Shields, D.R. Cromartie, Brent Grimes, at CB

Jairus Byrd, Louis Delmas, Kenny Phillips, Laron Landry, Yeremiah Bell, Will Allen, at S

Lawrence Tynes, Nate Kaeding, Rob Bironas, Josh Brown at K

[Jackie Daytona]

we got players with those picks.... they didn't just dematerialize...... what 2nd round cb is going to be higher rated than V. Davis? with starting experience and youth on his side....

[GoColts8818]

I would kinda like to wait and see where we are going to pick for starters then who should be there, then see what we do in free agency before I buy into the we should trade down argument. If our biggest need is say D tackle and we end up with say the 4th pick and we have a chance to draft the best 3-4 DT in the draft we draft him and don't move. It will all depends on things we have no way of knowing right now.

[chad72]

I am thinking the Peyton era will repeat itself, like we drafted in the top 5 to get Edge after Peyton's rookie year.

I am predicting we will be in the top 5.

If a QB hungry team wants Geno Smith or Matt Barkley and we are picking at No.4 and Jarvis Jones, the best OLB pass rusher is off the board, I am certain we can get our hands on Star Lotulelei or Johnathan Hankins between 5 and 10. DTs are drafted based on purely potential and in the passing league, their value has dropped if they cannot provide pass rush. That is why I feel that Lotulelei or Hankins, even if one of them is projected top 5, both might drop into the 5-10 range.

Plus, a team from the top 10 will trade back into the top 5 definitely because of the new rookie wage scale. We can definitely get a No.1 and No.2 from a team picking No.8 to get back to No.4 based on: http://www.draftcoun...Value-Chart.php

So, if we dont get Jarvis Jones in the top 3, we can get Sam Montgomery in the top 10, and so on...and worst case scenario if we dont get Sam Montgomery in the top 10, we get Chance Warmack in the top 15 by moving down again...etc.